Elliot Clarke

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GUEST OBSERVATION 
The past week has been light on data, but full of angst. At the centre was President Trump again raising questions over the appropriateness of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) ongoing gradual normalisation.
The market subsequently found cause to be more cautious on growth, the S&amp;P500 jolting 3% lower on Wednesday before recovering almost 2% on Thursday. Markets across the world, by and large, followed suit.
During an interview with the Wall Street Journal, President Trump made clear his displeasure with the FOMC over their gradual normalisation.
President Trump’s focus was arguably more on his economic legacy than the appropriateness of the FOMC’s actions, made clear by comments referencing President Obama’s “zero [interest] rates”.
But President Trump did clearly say that he sees the FOMC as the biggest risk to the US “because I think interest rates are being raised too quickly”.
Many across the globe would instead argue that it is his administration’s trade policies that are the greater cause for concern, particularly with respect to business investment.
While the US Markit PMI’s held up in October, according to the flash release, core durable goods shipments and orders both showed weakness in September.
For core shipments, September was the second consecutive flat outcome. Core orders furthermore signalled that growth is to remain absent, falling for a second consecutive month in September.
This soft trend fits with the deterioration seen of late in the regional business surveys’ investment intention series, but is a stark contrast to the optimism around fiscal expansion and domestic demand.
Taken together, these observations highlight the uncertainty that the tariffs have created.
Combined with the end of extraordinary fiscal policy in late-2019, the negative shock to business investment from the US’ own tariffs is crucial to our view that growth will decelerate through mid-2019 and see the FOMC go on hold – indefinitely.
US housing data released this week gave the FOMC an additional reason to be cautious but not alarmed.
New home sales fell over 5% in September; moreover, this was the fifth decline in six months.
If we take a step back and consider data for the past two years however, the trend looks more flat than downward.
Given home builder confidence and Case-Shiller house price growth remain strong, and the 30-year mortgage rate accommodative, the current level of sales should persist and inventories remain manageable.
Turning to Europe, the ECB met for their October meeting this week. By and large, their views were unchanged.
The Council continues to have considerable confidence in the domestic economy, particularly the strength of employment.
The latter is expected to flow through to wages and underlying inflation in time, bringing inflation to the ECB’s ‘near 2% year target’. Although risks are still considered “broadly balanced”, evident in the Q&amp;A however was that external risks to this view have built.
This highlights a need to pay close attention to the ECB’s forecasts as they are updated at the December meeting and the end of each quarter thereafter.
We remain of the view that only the deposit rate will be increased from late-2019, with the refinance rate to wait until at least mid-2020. Risks to this view are skewed towards a later start to hikes.
Coming back to Australia, in the absence of any data, RBA discussion of the labour market was the focus.
Following the unemployment rate’s jolt lower to 5.0% in September, historically the benchmark for ‘full employment’ in Australia, Deputy Governor Debelle remarked this week that “We [the RBA] have an open mind on the question of what actually constitutes full employment”. 
Westpac’s own view is that the unemployment rate consistent with full employment is actually likely to be well below the current 5.0% figure, hence wage growth and inflation are unlikely to pick up anytime soon.
This fits with the experience of the US where, with the unemployment rate now a percentage point below historic estimates of ‘full employment’, wages are only just starting to accelerate robustly.
Looking ahead, we see the Australian unemployment rate holding near 5.0% through 2018 and 2019, and hence wages growth and inflation remaining benign.
The next key update for Australia will be the September quarter CPI report, due next week.
On all fronts, it is expected to highlight the absence of inflation pressures and justify the RBA remaining on hold through 2019 and 2020.    
Elliot Clarke is a senior economist at Westpac and can be <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/news/authors/elliot-clarke/" target="_blank">contacted here.</a>
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Trump's tariffs likely to lead to further interest rate caution: Westpac's Elliot Clarke

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The RBA has been the focus this week given the August Board meeting and today’s release of their latest Statement on Monetary Policy.
Unsurprisingly, <a href="https://rba.gov.au/media-releases/2020/mr-20-18" target="_blank">the RBA decision statement</a> maintained a cautious view on the global economy, noting that the outlook remains highly uncertain despite the worst of the contraction having passed.
The risks for the domestic economy were also highlighted: the growth view for 2020 maintained at -6.0% as the 2021 gain was revised down to +5%; and the end-2020 unemployment rate forecast revised up from 9% to 10% on the expectation that Victoria’s lockdown will result in further job losses.
In light of these factors, the Governor emphasised the RBA’s commitment to the 3-year bond yield target of 0.25% by announcing that CGS purchases would re-commence after the August meeting.
The statement also outlined the ongoing evolution of the Term Funding Facility, highlighting the liquidity support it has and will provide to the economy.  
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/44488" target="_blank">Westpac’s own growth view</a> remains more constructive on 2020 than the RBA, but we believe 2021 will disappoint.
Having revised our 2020 growth target from -4.2% to -4.7%, principally due to developments in Victoria, while keeping our +3.0% expectation for 2021 unrevised, we believe the Australian economy will end 2021 with a level of GDP 1.8ppts below that at December 2019. This compares to -1.0% <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2020/aug/economic-outlook" target="_blank">on the RBA’s baseline forecasts</a>.
On either view, labour market slack is set to become entrenched for an extended period. From its 10% peak later this year, the RBA anticipates that the unemployment rate will only slowly decline to around 7% at December 2022.
A full discussion of Westpac’s revised forecasts, the outlook for policy and the risks was provided by <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2020/August/er20200805BullAustraliasGrowthProspects.pdf" target="_blank">Chief Economist Bill Evans</a> this week.
The release of our <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2020/August/WestpacMarketOutlookAugust2020.pdf" target="_blank">August Market Outlook</a> publication this week also gave cause to reassess our global views. Most prominent are the divergent economic prospects of the US and China as well as the rapid depreciation of the US dollar currently underway.
Beginning with the US and China, the response of authorities in each jurisdiction to COVID-19 was polar opposite; unsurprisingly, so are the economic consequences now being seen.
Whereas China regained the activity lost in Q1 in just three months, the US looks likely to end-2021 with a level of GDP almost 3.0% lower than end-2019. Further, while short and medium-term risks for China are to the upside, they are most certainly skewed down in the US.
While out of the spotlight, Europe is somewhere in between, still having to suppress small but frequent COVID-19 outbreaks, but with the promise of co-ordinated fiscal support and an emerging global recovery getting brighter by the week.
That then brings us to the US dollar downtrend. The scale of the decline we have seen to date from the peak levels seen in April and May has been broadly in line with our expectations.
But, as is often the case in financial markets, the speed of the move has been much more rapid than we anticipated. As a result, the August Market Outlook includes meaningful revisions to our US dollar expectations against Euro and the British Pound.
The US dollar DXY index is now expected to retrace most of its gains since 2018, falling to 90.5 by end-2021. The risk remains that this move occurs quicker than forecast and/ or is more pronounced.
The gains we anticipate for China’s Renminbi highlight the promise of recovery for nations that have suppressed COVID-19’s spread.
While US/China trade tensions loom, China has ample trade opportunities before it within the Asian region, where economic development prospects remain strong. 
ELLIOT CLARKE is a senior economist at Westpac 
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Downward forecast revisions highlight enduring uncertainty: Elliot Clarke

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EXPERT OBSERVER
For Australia, the past seven days have been focused on the labour market, with updates for wage growth and employment received.
On employment, the 4k decline in jobs in the month of July was well below the market’s expectation, but in line with our own. Given it follows an outsized 58k gain in June, the weak July outcome is certainly not a cause for concern. Indeed the past three months have seen an average monthly gain of 22k, ahead of the 18k trend pace of growth. Looking ahead, we anticipate that momentum in employment will slow in the second half of 2018.
Based on employment growth, wages growth should be much stronger than the 2.1% reported for the year to June 2018. Here we see the impact of the underutilisation of workers which, in our view, is set to remain a significant concern hence. Broadly we believe this under-reported slack will hold nominal wage inflation around 2.0% through the remainder of 2018 and 2019 and, as a consequence, real wage growth will be negligible. This situation will continue to weigh on households’ perceptions of their family finances and willingness to spend.
Another important consequence of inflation persistently at the lower-bound of the RBA’s target range and weak (or no) real wage growth is that household’s inflation expectations are suppressed. Our Chief Economist Bill Evans has taken up this important topic this week. The take-home point for policy is that “there must be a risk that, at least from an expectations perspective, low inflation is embedded in the system for longer than the Bank and the market are currently expecting”.
Outturns as above would be a stark contrast to the positive expectations of the Government and the RBA – the latter re-iterated during Governor Lowe’s appearance before the House of Representative’s Standing Committee on Economics this week. This is why we believe aggregate growth in 2019 will be sub-trend, and that the RBA will remain on hold into 2020.
Turning to the US, the New York Federal Reserve’s consumer credit survey was the highlight, but out of the headlines. Conflict between the US and Turkey instead remained front of mind for the press. This is a highly uncertain situation, and is unlikely to be resolved soon. We are not overly concerned by the effect this situation will have on global trade or growth, but we are mindful of potential spill-over effects to the European banking sector (who have considerable exposure to Turkish corporates) and to sentiment towards other emerging markets. Developing nations geographically near Australia are in a far better situation than Turkey and where they were in the late-1990’s (based on current account and external debt metrics). Hence a real economy and/or emerging market financial market contagion in our region is highly unlikely. Still, amid uncertainty, market participants are likely to sit on the sidelines until the data confirms there is no need for concern.
As we continue to outline, the greater risk to the region is likely that emanating from China’s domestic banking system as it undergoes lasting change to rein-in shadow banking activity and shift the majority of credit supply to the banks. Chinese credit data is now available to July. In the most recent release, a further fall in shadow banking credit was seen such that credit provided by these shadow lenders has now only increased by about RMB700bn in 2018 compared to almost RMB3.5trn at this time in 2017. Greater lending by the banking system has only offset around RMB900bn of the reduction in new shadow credit in 2018, so total credit growth in 2018 is almost RMB2trn less than the prior year. This outcome is intended and well managed, but whenever a policy shift of this magnitude is undertaken, there are risks which must be monitored. It is not happenstance that Chinese regulators have recently acted to ease financial conditions and bolster market liquidity.
In these uncertain times, a clear positive for China’s economy is their housing market. In stark contrast to the 5.5% gain for total fixed asset investment, real estate investment is running at a 10% year-to-date pace. Further, the recent acceleration in starts implies that the majority of this momentum will be sustained into year end, particularly as continued robust price growth in tier 2 and 3 make for an attractive sales environment.
If gains for this sector are to endure, then both central and local authorities will need to push ahead with their intended long-term reforms to drive growth in industry and incomes across the nation. As we look ahead to next week, US/China trade relations will again fill the headlines, given a Chinese trade delegation is reportedly heading to the US for talks just before the US’ next round of tariffs are to take effect.    
Elliot Clarke is a senior economist at Westpac and can be <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/news/authors/elliot-clarke/" target="_blank">contacted here.</a>
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Wages and jobs data point to a continued sub-par performance for inflation: Elliot Clarke

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Momentum in China’s housing market has continued to build in recent months. At June, 84% of the 70 cities surveyed were reporting monthly price gains – the strongest outcome since August 2016. At 90%, gains for the established market were broader still – a high back to April 2013.
While the breadth of gains is striking, their quantum remains relatively subdued compared to heights reached in 2015 and 2016.
For new housing, prices in tier 2 are currently up 6.6%yr, while in tier 3 they have risen 6.0%yr. Tier 1 house prices are, in contrast, broadly in line with their year ago levels after annual growth troughed at –1.0% in April.   
For existing housing, very similar outcomes have been seen: prices in tier 1 are unchanged; and in tier 2 and tier 3, they are up 6.3%yr and 3.8%yr respectively.
Taking a look at the monthly growth pulse for new housing, it is evident that momentum is picking up. Average growth has lifted from –0.1% in January to 0.3% in June; while the maximum gain has jumped from 1.2% to 3.3%. 
Authorities are less likely to react to accelerating price growth in this instance given it is being seen in tier 2 and 3, where construction activity and wealth gains are desired, and because (in a macro sense) strength in residential construction is currently necessary to offset weakness in other key sectors – namely utilities and transport.
Growth in housing starts has accelerated ahead of sales, so it is right to expect construction momentum to hold up in the second half of 2018.
That being said, if the pace of sales does not follow, then construction activity growth will again fall back as inventory is worked through.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/8/17/china%201.jpg" alt="">
If authorities decide that a further easing of financing conditions is needed, it will come via another cut to the Reserve Requirement Ratio (we forecast 100bps by year end) and the provision of additional liquidity to interbank markets. By and large, region-specific mortgage restrictions will remain in place.  
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/8/17/china%202.jpg" alt="">
Elliot Clarke is a senior economist at Westpac and can be <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/news/authors/elliot-clarke/" target="_blank">contacted here.</a>
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Perspective on Asia, China housing update July 2018: Elliot Clarke

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Labour market data provided two contrasting perspectives on Australia’s economy. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment strengthened, and business conditions remained above average.
Following last month’s 5.0% unemployment rate, a level historically regarded as consistent with full employment, the <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2018/November/Labour-FI_chart_packOct18.pdf" target="_blank">Australian labour force survey for October</a> was keenly awaited. It certainly did not disappoint, with the unemployment rate remaining at 5.0% despite a partial reversal of the 0.2ppt decline in participation seen in September. On a multi-month basis, it is employment not participation that is driving the unemployment downtrend. At October, annual employment growth stood at 2.5%yr, nearly a percentage point above population growth. Furthermore, those gains have largely been full-time in nature.
The above trend is favourable for household income growth, increasing aggregate hours worked across the economy and reducing slack. However, this tightening of the labour market is yet to stoke wages growth. In the September quarter, <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2018/November/WPI_Q32018.pdf" target="_blank">the wage price index</a> rose just 0.6% (2.3%yr) and was weaker still for the private sector at 0.5% (2.1%yr). Arguably this disconnect between wages and employment growth is in part due to considerable underemployment (those working less hours than they would like to). That said, the current level of underutilisation is historically consistent with wages growth around 2.5%yr, not the 2.1%yr currently being seen in the private sector. Herein is evidence of other factors being at play, principally globalisation; technology; and a focus on efficiency amongst large corporates.
In terms of the outlook for wages, it is troublesome that the states of NSW and Vic, who have seen a more aggressive downtrend in unemployment and underemployment, are also yet to see a substantial lift in wages growth, respectively 2.2%yr and 2.5%yr at September.
The enduring disconnect between wages and employment arguably is a key reason why <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2018/November/er20181114BullConsumerSentiment.pdf" target="_blank">family finance perceptions</a> continue to lag households’ economic and labour market expectations; and now, even as family finance views are shifting to above long-run average levels, why ‘time to buy a major household item’ is at 18 month lows and spending intentions for Christmas are the weakest they have been since 2014. House price expectations, which are now on par with their lowest ever level back to mid-2009, are decidedly unfavorable for spending, as is the pressing cash-flow reality of high household debt. Weakness in consumer spending was also evident in the <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2018/November/er20181113BullAustralianBusinessConditionsOct.pdf" target="_blank">NAB business survey</a> for October, particularly in NSW. That said, while confidence is now below average in aggregate, conditions for businesses remain above average overall on the back of robust trading conditions and profitability.
Moving offshore, data released this week for China points to the investment trend having troughed. That said, the acceleration in activity will be slow in coming amid headwinds from ongoing structural change in the finance sector and, to a lesser extent, uncertainty associated with trade policy. On that front, murmurs of the US’ being willing to compromise with China on trade bolstered markets overnight. President Trump will meet President Xi at the end of the month. The hope is that this conversation can turn the tide and stop any further intensification of tensions. This would only be a starting point for negotiations however. Many hurdles must be overcome for a lasting solution to be attained.
For the US, data has been light but broadly supportive of the ongoing robust, non-inflationary uptrend in activity continuing, with the CPI benign in October (annual core inflation at 2.1%yr) as retail sales beat expectations (0.8%). Admittedly retail sales were bolstered by Hurricane season replacement spending in October and higher oil prices in the month, but underlying momentum remained robust. Chair Powell again showed confidence in the US economy and the outlook this week despite weakening residential investment and uncertainty over the lasting benefit of fiscal policy to growth. Recent market volatility is not a material concern, nor are global risks and trade tensions. But all are being watched closely. The move to hold a press conference after every FOMC meeting and to review “strategies, tools and communication practices” highlight a desire by Chair Powell and the Committee to be more nimble as this cycle matures. 
For Europe (and the UK), Brexit has again been the focus. A brief respite from Brexit uncertainty was seen mid-week as the UK Cabinet rubber stamped a transition deal agreed by UK and European negotiators. But multiple ministerial resignations the day after consequently put Prime Minister May’s position and the deal in jeopardy. It is not at all clear if the current deal will remain let alone what a replacement deal might look like. Of course the final deal, whatever its terms, then has to be passed by both the UK and EU parliaments. On the Italian budget, the Government has remained steadfast in not adjusting the proposal in response to disagreement from the European Commission. Whether the European Commission goes through with imposing infringement penalties will be of key interest in the weeks ahead.  
Elliot Clarke is senior economist at Westpac and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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