Economic Development

<h2>What&rsquo;s the outlook for the Australian property markets for 2021 and beyond?</h2>

This is a common question people are asking now that our real estate markets are up and running again after virtual auctions and sight unseen purchases took place in 2020.

News from the biggest banks and Australian economic experts are predicting house price growth across almost every segment of the market.

Those I spoke to, and who have released forecasts of their own, are predicting property price growth of 12 per cent per cent - 20 per cent per cent across Australia this year. They expect the trend will almost certainly continue until the end of 2022.

Historically low-interest rates and FOMO (fear of missing out) have driven dwelling prices to record new highs &ndash; but we&rsquo;ve only recently surpassed previous 2017 peaks, which means double-digit price growth is on the horizon for many areas around Australia in 2021.

AMP Capital&#39;s Shane Oliver in particular said, &quot;the forces that have driven average Australian capital city property prices well above trend and well above price-to-income ratios seen in comparable countries over the last two decades may be at, or close to, having finally run their course.&quot;

We&rsquo;ve taken a look at a handful of the state capital property markets, how they&rsquo;ve performed since COVID hit, and what is being forecast to the end of 2021.

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Melbourne Forecast

While Melbourne property prices suffered because of its extended lockdown which severely impacted market activity in 2020, commencing in late October the Melbourne property market has rebounded strongly and is likely to deliver double digit price growth over the next 12 months.

Apartment prices were up just 0.4 per cent in July, contributing to a growth of 1.9 per cent for the quarter and 6.1 per cent in the year to date. The median apartment price in Melbourne is now $612,711.

Dwelling values overall, have increased 11.1 per cent in the past seven months, carried primarily by house price growth of 13.3 per cent in that period.

Property of every type remains in high demand across regional Victoria, especially those with easy access to the capital city with units seeing price growth of 15.7 per cent since January.

Overall, experts forecast property prices will rise roughly 16 per cent by 2021&#39;s end.

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Sydney Forecast

Extremely strong demand for property in Sydney&rsquo;s inner and middle-ring suburbs has led to Sydney house prices seeing double digit price growth, apartments however have taken longer to bounce back from covid.

Apartment prices are up 5.1 per cent over the quarter to be up 10 per cent in the year to date. Of that growth, 1.6 per cent happened in July with similar showings in February and March. Sydney&rsquo;s median unit value is now just over $810,000.

Interestingly enough it is Regional NSW that is seeing the strongest growth in the apartment sector with values shooting up 7 per cent this quarter to be up 14.5 per cent in the year to date.&nbsp;

It is worth noting that the greatest increase in property prices across NSW are seen in the priciest properties and this holds true in both the house and unit markets.

Overall, experts forecast property prices will rise roughly 19 per cent by 2021&#39;s end.

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Brisbane Forecast

Brisbane&rsquo;s house prices remained resilient over 2020 when other markets were impacted by the economic impact of COVID-19.

Now, moving forward, the Sunshine State will shine with strong demand for homes, particularly in lifestyle areas, likely to deliver double digit capital growth over the next 12 months.

Brisbane apartment values have increased 2.7 per cent over the quarter, in line with 6.2 per cent in the year to date.&nbsp;

Median apartment values have hit a high of $419,143.

Several of the economists I spoke to including Terry Ryder and Westpac&#39;s Bill Evans tipped housing prices to surge 20 per cent between 2022 and 2023.&nbsp;

Hotspotting&#39;s Terry Ryder clarified that 89 per cent of suburbs across Brisbane are seeing price growth and was tipping it to become Australia&#39;s property leader in the coming months and years.

It&rsquo;s also worth keeping in mind the Brisbane 2032 Olympics which will positively impact property values now and in the future.

Overall, experts forecast property prices will rise roughly 16 per cent by 2021&#39;s end.

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Canberra Forecast

Canberra&rsquo;s property market has been described by many as a &ldquo;quiet achiever&rdquo; with dwelling values reaching a new peak after growing 14.2 per cent over the last year.

Considering a large percentage of Canberra&#39;s population is employed by the government or industries supporting the public sector, Canberra&rsquo;s property market has not really felt the effects of the coronavirus recession like other capital cities did.

Due primarily to the ongoing apartment developments popping up across Canberra, like those from Geocon, unit values are up 1.3 per cent this month, making up a large chunk of the 2.8 per cent price growth this quarter. Apartment prices are up 6.5 per cent in the year to date.&nbsp;

Median apartment prices are currently $520,900.

Moving forward, the Canberra property market will continue to enjoy solid but slower property price growth, due primarily to slow population growth.

Overall, experts forecast property prices will rise roughly 17 per cent by 2021&#39;s end.

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Perth Forecast

Perth&rsquo;s long-awaited recovery was interrupted midway by COVID-19 but now Perth&rsquo;s housing market is back on a recovery trajectory, with home values posting a 7.5 per cent increase in the year to date.

Perth continues to be the most affordable capital city for houses in the country and this along with a record-low mortgage rate, improving economic conditions and government incentives has set it up for strong price growth this year.

This has also seen strong benefits for the apartment market which has been neck and neck with houses and even outperformed them this quarter, seeing 2.3 per cent growth compared to 1.5 per cent. Units were up 0.6 per cent for July, while houses saw growth of 0.3 per cent.

Apartment values are up 6.8 per cent since January achieving a median price of $404,257.

Overall, experts forecast property prices will rise roughly 19 per cent by 2021&#39;s end.

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<h2>How does my property impact the economy?</h2>

Real estate affects the economy because it makes up a large portion of individual and business wealth across economic sectors.

When real estate prices rise, wealth increases, so individuals and businesses are more likely to borrow and spend.

This can be seen in recent times with the average Australian savings account decreasing ~$7,000 from May to April as prices start to spike, however this can also be largely attributed to a reducing fear of COVID-19

When your home rises in value it increases the overall value of the economy. When real estate prices rise, wealth increases, so individuals and businesses are more likely to borrow and spend.

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<h2>What&rsquo;s causing the rise in home prices?</h2>

The primary factor causing the current boom in home prices are the continuing low mortgage rates and low interest rates.&nbsp;

Plus with Australia&rsquo;s excellent response to Covid 19 transmission seeing business reopening well and an increasing optimism for the economy there is much less fear around COVID-19.

With fewer homes for sale and first time home buyers and owner occupiers (those buying a property to live in it) dominating the market, they are currently the ones driving up property prices the most.&nbsp;

However as incentives like those from the HomeBuilder Grant and First Home Buyer Grant taper off it is expected that we will see a massive uptick in investor spending on property as they compete with owner occupiers and first home buyers over the super competitive interest rates.

It is predicted that Investors will drive the market well into 2022 and perhaps even 2023 depending on other conditions that influence interest rates like the cash rate.

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<h2>How does the Cash Rate influence the Interest Rates on my loan?</h2>

You often hear about it in the news, the monthly changes in the Cash Rate, but what is the cash rate and how does it affect you?

In essence the Cash Rate which the RBA meets on to decide once a month (currently 0.15 per cent) changes how much money banks can lend to you.

So when the cash rate is extremely low - close to zero - as it is currently, banks can and are encouraged to offer lower interest rates.&nbsp;

That means when the Cash Rate is low, Variable and Lock-In Interest Rates are low so your mortgage is cheaper!&nbsp;

This can save you hundreds to thousands of dollars a year depending on the value of your home.&nbsp;

With all that covered, every expert I talked to predicts that the cash rate will not decrease any time in the next 2 years and most experts expect the cash rate to increase in 2023 or later.

However three of the Big 4 banks have already started hiking interest rates across the range with Westpac the only one yet to start showing upward movement. It&#39;s a sign of the times with a number of other banking and loan institutions also increasing interest rates across a wide range of home loans.

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<h2>How does the government affect property prices?</h2>

Legislation is also a factor that can have a sizable impact on property demand and prices.

Tax credits, deductions, and subsidies are some of the ways the government can boost demand for real estate for as long as they are in place.

Some recent examples of this include the HomeBuilder Grant and the First Home Buyers Grant.

Being aware of current government incentives can help you determine changes in supply and demand and who and what will be affecting property prices.

An example of something to look out for is the percentage of properties purchased by FHB&#39;s (First Home Buyers) soaring to record highs recently. Although this still remains the case, it wont forever and certainly is not predicted to last into 2022.

What’s the outlook for the Australian property markets for 2021 and beyond?

jordan_55689

Economic Guide: Forecasting property prices and what affects property in 2021, 2022 and beyond

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank has released its November Statement on Monetary Policy and a major interest is always in any revisions to its output, employment and inflation forecasts.
In that regard, we were a little surprised that the forecast for growth in 2019 remained at 3 ¼ per cent. That is because in the Governor’s Decision Statement following the November Board meeting, he noted “the forecast for economic growth in 2018 and 2019 have been revised up a little."
The central scenario is for GDP growth to average around 3 ½ per cent over these two years”. That seemed to point to an upward revision for the 2019 forecast but instead it remains 3 ¼ per cent.
However, there is some recognition of stronger growth in the second half of 2019 since growth through to June 2020 has been revised up from 3 to 3 ¼ per cent.
It is true however, that growth in 2018 has been revised up to 3 ½ per cent from 3 ¼ per cent, although that largely reflects a higher starting point given that the previous estimate of growth to June 2018 was lifted from 3 per cent to 3.4% actual.
The forecast for 2019, nevertheless, is significantly higher than Westpac’s forecast of 2.7%.
This can largely be explained by an assessment by the RBA that there will be no marked reduction in residential construction activity in 2019 and limited reduction in 2020. Secondly, the assumption is that household consumption growth will be sustained at around the current 3 per cent pace over the forecast period.
With regards to the residential construction cycle, the assumption is that the fall in building approvals, which is already apparent and the information the RBA has received from its liaison contacts in the industry that off-the-plan sales have slowed significantly, will not significantly impact activity until beyond 2020.
This seems to overlook evidence of a clear slowdown in non high-rise approvals, the likelihood of an increase in abandonments of approvals which are already in the system, and evidence, which the RBA notes, that “lot sales for new detached housing have also declined sharply in Sydney and Melbourne since late 2017”.
Instead we assess that all of these forces point to a more significant reduction in dwelling construction in 2019 and 2020 than the RBA is expecting.
The view around consumption growth being sustained at 3 per cent looks courageous. It relies on ongoing growth in employment despite a clear slowing through 2018, the elusive pick-up in wages growth, and only a relatively small wealth effect that might be related to the ongoing falls in house prices and associated household wealth. We would expect that with the savings rate down at around 4 per cent, this wealth effect is likely to be more significant.
There has also been an increase in the forecast for underlying inflation for the year to December 2019 from 2 per cent in the August SoMP to 2 ¼ per cent. With the recent September quarter inflation report confirming that underlying inflation is running at 1 ¾ per cent, this forecast lift of ½ per cent in underlying inflation looks to be optimistic.
The justification behind this increase is around expected faster wages growth and a larger reduction in the output gap due to the above trend growth in 2018 and 2019.
The history of underlying inflation indicates that a ½ per cent jump over the course of one year seems optimistic given the correction in housing that is underway.
The RBA’s analysis of the prospects for wages growth is tentative. In fact, it points out that “wage outcomes from enterprise bargaining agreements are likely to remain a drag on overall wages growth” and also points to its liaison work which notes that “there is still spare capacity in the labour market”.
Appropriately, the SoMP spends some time referring to international evidence which indicates that Australia’s unemployment rate could fall well below historical estimates of the NAIRU “before there is a material increase in wages growth”.
This evidence refers to globalisation, technological change, and changes in relative bargaining power. Other major risks to this inflation forecast relate to ongoing competitive forces in the retail sector and “a risk of further declines in administered prices” due to government initiatives to reduce cost of living pressures.
As was indicated in the Governor’s Decision Statement, the forecast for the unemployment rate has been lowered. However, this appears to be a cautious ‘mark-to-market’ exercise.
In August, the forecast was for the unemployment rate to fall from 5 ½ per cent in December 2018 to 5 per cent by December 2020.
The new forecast is for the unemployment rate to fall from 5 per cent in December 2018 (recognising the most recent employment report) to 4 ¾ per cent in December 2020.
The discussion around the risks of a lower NAIRU would suggest only a very limited prospect of resurgent wage pressures should the unemployment rate only fall by a ¼ per cent in two years.
It is difficult for a central bank to acknowledge political risks but with a Federal election certain to be called in 2019, the uncertainty/ confidence factor associated with such an event might also have been incorporated in the forecasts.
But their assumption around employment growth, income growth and business investment seems to indicate no effect taken into account – both construction activity and machinery and equipment investment are expected to be boosted.
Conclusion
On face value, the stronger growth and higher inflation forecasts might imply that the RBA is closer to raising rates than we have expected. That may well be the case from their perspective. But if the economy evolves as we expect with a slowdown in consumer spending, a contraction in residential investment, and softer confidence partly linked to global uncertainty, the RBA’s growth and inflation forecasts are unlikely to be achieved.
Of course, it will take some time for these developments to be apparent and based on the Governor’s comment “the Board does not see a strong case to adjust the cash rate in the near-term”, we have ample time for the outlook to evolve without a surprise policy adjustment based on these forecasts.
Westpac confirms its view that the cash rate will remain on hold through 2018, 2019 and 2020.  
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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RBA wrong to rely on small wealth effect given ongoing falls in house prices: Bill Evans

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/63322/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Various cities in Australia have developed creative economy policies with the aim of diversifying their economy.
These policies are about attracting and retaining entrepreneurs and firms from the creative industries sector, such as the music and fashion industries.
Creative economy policies were often based on the cluster concept developed by Michael Porter in the 1990s. This was the case for the creative city strategy in Brisbane and also for the more recent music industry policy in Melbourne.
Brisbane has been very active in this area. The objective was to be less dependent on natural resources in the future.
Planning initiatives such the Kelvin Grove Village are examples of economic development strategies based on the cluster concept that translated into planned projects. But positive steps are being taken to provide affordable spaces for creative workers.
Recent research on the video game industry in Australia has shown that new technologies have greatly influenced the production of games. The industry functions as a “networked community” and not strictly as spatially bounded clusters. The use of new platforms such as the internet enables small companies to produce games from remote areas.
<h2>Industry structures are changing</h2>
The composition of the industry has changed significantly since 2006-07, with the closure of several development studios that focused on console games, such as Krome Studios. A variety of platforms – Unity 3d, mobile phones etc – is now available to game developers.
With the shift from console games to mobile phone games, the industry has changed dramatically. The nature of the demand has changed too: consumers of video games are now looking for a quick and fast experience.
Disparity Games, operating from Noosa on the Sunshine Coast, is an example of these new successful companies located outside the main cluster. The people behind Disparity Games are two video game developers working from home in an idyllic environment. The map below shows the location of video game firms in Queensland, with some of those companies operating from the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast.
In an interview with the author, one of the game developers explained why they decided to move their company to Noosa:
"After the collapse of large studios we decided to go indie. With the smaller indie companies, everyone is more supportive. We have meet-ups on marketing, technical issues, game testing. We are exchanging knowledge at those events, [so] we don’t need to be based in the city anymore to be part of the community."
<h2>New technologies enable new ways of working</h2>
These studios have demonstrated that self-publishing is a viable business model in Australia. Independent developers can now bypass traditional international publishers.
New technologies have thus had the effect of reducing the size of video game companies and increasing their number. This is verified in Queensland, which has become specialised in developing mobile phone games.
New technologies such as the National Broadband Network (NBN) have changed the way video game developers produce games and where they produce them. With the NBN, a small video game company can literally produce a game from anywhere.
If they already have the professional connections, developers can work on the same game with different experts located in different cities. Face-to-face interactions are important, but this does not mean anymore that video game developers need to be located in the city at all times.
In that sense, creative economy policies should think about flexible ways to accommodate creative workers in the city. The opening of co-working spaces in South Bank or the River City labs are good examples in Brisbane.
This research shows it is time to go beyond the cluster type of economic development policies to attract and retain creative workers and firms in cities like Brisbane.
Instead of planning creative neighbourhoods or districts, which are often not affordable for start-up companies, policies should aim for flexible solutions such as co-working spaces. Those are more adapted to an era in which new technologies are to a certain extent changing the geography of creative industries based on technological innovation such as the video game industry.
Sebastien Darchen is lecturer in Planning, The University of Queensland and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sebastien-darchen-6781" target="_blank">here</a>.
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