Dwelling Vlaues

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Throughout the 2018-19 financial year, 26.0% of all houses sold nationally were under $400,000 and 32.5% of all unit sales were under $400,000.
Despite the weakening housing market the share of house sales under $400,000 was virtually unchanged from a year ago, down from 26.3% the previous year while the share of unit sales under $400,000 increased from 31.0% over the 2017-18 financial year.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/sales%20national%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/sales%20national%201.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
Across the combined capital cities, 13.9% of house sales over the 2018-19 financial year were under $400,000 and 24.6% of unit sales were under this price point.
The share of house sales under $400,000 was virtually unchanged from the previous year, recorded at 13.8% while the share of unit sales was noticeably lower at 22.3%.
Despite house and unit values falling -8.7% and -5.9% respectively over the year, it is interesting to note that the share of unit sales under $400,000 has increased much more for units than houses.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/sales%20combined%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/sales%20combined%20.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
Across the combined regional markets, 42.8% of all house sales over the past financial year and 54.3% of all unit sales were under $400,000.
Unlike the combined capital cities, the combined regional markets have seen the share of sales under $400,000 record a sizeable decline compared to the previous financial year when 44.1% of house sales and 55.6% of unit sales were below $400,000.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/sales%20sydney.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/sales%20sydney.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
Over the 2018-19 financial year, 2.3% of all house sales in Sydney were below $400,000 compared to 2.0% over the previous financial year indicating a slight increase.
It was a similar story for units with 5.7% of all sales below $400,000 over the past year compared to 4.4% a year earlier.
Despite the recent declines in dwelling values in Sydney, there has not been any substantial increase in the share of sales below $400,000.
In regional NSW, the decline in dwelling values over the past year has been significant but not as large as that in Sydney.
At the end of the 2017-18 financial year, 29.3% of all house sales and 42.1% of all unit sales were under $400,000.
By the end or 2018-19, the share of sales under $400,000 had reduced to 28.5% for houses and 39.5% for units, indicating that falling dwelling values had led to no increase in the share of sales under $400,000.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/sales%20mel.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/sales%20mel.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
Although Melbourne dwelling value shave fallen throughout the 20181-9 financial year there has been a further decline in the share of houses and units selling below $400,000.
The share of houses selling for less than $400,000 fell from 3.6% over the 2017-18 financial year to 2.9% over the 2018-19 financial year.
It’s a similar story for units that recorded a fall in the share of sales under $400,000 from 21.9% to 21.2% over the past two financial years.
The ongoing increases in values across regional Vic has resulted in a further decline in the share of sales under $400,000.
Over the 2017-18 financial year, 61.9% of houses and 81.2% of units sold for less than $400,000.
A year later, 56.1% of house sales and 78.5% of unit sales were less than $400,000.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/sales%20brisbane%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/sales%20brisbane%20.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
Although Brisbane dwelling values have recorded a moderate fall over the past year, the share of house sales under $400,000 has reduced while the share of units selling under that price point has increased. Over the most recent financial year, 23.2% of houses and 53.5% of units sold for less than $400,000.
By comparison, over the 2017-18 financial year 25.0% of houses and 51.5% of units sold for less than $400,000.
The share of units selling under $400,000 was last as high as it is currently in 2012-13 financial year.
Despite ongoing falls in dwelling values across regional Qld, there has been virtually no change in the share of sales below $400,000 over the past two financial years.
The share of house sales under $400,000 has held firm, tracking from 41.6% of all sales to 41.7% between the 2017-18 and 2018-19 financial years.
The share of unit sales under $400,000 has increased marginally, from 55.8% to 56.0% over the past two financial years.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/sales%20adelaide.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/sales%20adelaide.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
Over the 2018-19, financial year houses and units in Adelaide have recorded a reduced share of sales occurring under $400,000.
For houses, the share of sales under $400,000 fell to 35.8% from 39.6% the previous financial year while for units the share fell from 67.9% to 66.1%.
Although overall values have drifted slightly lower over the year, it hasn’t led to an increased share in sales under $400,000.
Although the majority of house and unit sales in regional SA are under $400,000, both have seen a reduced share of sales over the past year.
In June 2018, 80.8% of all house sales and 91.6% of all unit sales were under $400,000 compared to 76.1% and 88.8% respectively in June 2019.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/sales%20perth%20.jpghttps://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/sales%20perth%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/sales%20perth%20.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
With ongoing value declines over recent years across Perth, the share of sales under $400,000 for houses and units has increased over the most recent financial year, rising to 31.2% of houses sold from 28.7% the previous year while for units the  share has risen to 55.0% from 50.2%.
The share of house sales under $400,000 in regional WA is relatively unchanged over the past two years falling from 64.7% to 64.5%.
For units, the share of sales under $400,000 has fallen from 83.4% to 78.8%.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/sales%20hobart%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/sales%20hobart%20.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
The ongoing rises in housing values in Hobart has led to a significant decline in sales under $400,000 in recent years.
The share of houses sold under $400,000 is at a record low having fallen from 43.0% over the 2017-18 financial year to 31.8% over the most recent year.
For units the share of sales under $400,000 has fallen from 65.9% to 57.8%.
Regional Tas has also seen a decline in sales under $400,000 as values have increased.
Over the 2017-18 financial year, 77.1% of house sales and 91.0% of unit sales were under $400,000.
By the end of the following financial year, these shares had fallen to 70.3% and 85.8% respectively.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/sales%20darwin%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/sales%20darwin%20.jpg" alt=""> 
Source: CoreLogic 
As dwelling values have continued to fall in Darwin there has been a significant increase in unit sales under $400,000 while any increase in the share for houses has been much more muted.
Over the 2017-18 financial year, 26.8% of house sales and 61.2% of unit sales were under $400,000 compared to 26.0% and 67.4% over the most recent financial year.
In regional NT, the share of sales under $400,000 has increased over the past financial year.
Over the 2018-19 financial year, the share of houses sold under $400,000 was recorded at 39.0% and 77.1% for units.
For the 2017-18 financial year the share of sales under $400,000 were recorded at 36.4% for houses and 74.1% for units.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/sales%20canberra%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/sales%20canberra%20.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
In Canberra, the share of sales under $400,000 has continued to trend lower as values have continued to climb (albeit at a slower pace).
Over the 2017-18 financial year, 6.8% of all house sales were under $400,000 compared to 5.0% over the most recent financial year.
For units, the share of sales under $400,000 reduced from 39.6% over the 2017-18 financial year to 36.0% in 2018-19.
The next financial year could look very different to what we have seen over the 2018-19 financial year. 
We’re only in mid-August and we’ve already seen interest rates reduced twice, serviceability floors on mortgages reduced and some recent rises in dwelling values in the largest capital cities.
While a significant rise in dwelling values isn’t expected, there is an expectation of a moderate increase in dwelling values, as a result the 2019-20 financial year is expected to see fewer sales under $400,000 than those recorded in 2018-19.
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic.
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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Despite falling dwelling values, there’s no big rise in sales under $400,000: Cameron Kusher

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/57114/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Late last year a Productivity Commission report found including the family home in the means test for the age pension could deliver the government A$6 billion in much-needed revenue.
Despite this, in the lead-up to the federal election, both major parties shied away from reform. Neither was willing to consider rolling back preferential treatment of the family home. This includes capital gains tax exemptions, first home owner grants and the family home’s exemption from the pension means test.
Home ownership is an important source of emotional security, which offers a strong rationale for exempting the family home from the pension means test. But as the population ages and the government’s fiscal problems grow, there’s increasing policy interest in tapping into older people’s accumulated housing wealth to support retirement.
<h2>The case for means-testing the family home</h2>
Exempting owner-occupied housing from capital gains tax can have adverse equity and efficiency impacts. The family home exemption results in the payment of income support to those with substantial wealth tied up in their principal residence. Public funds are not therefore targeted at those in most need.
The exemption of housing assets in means tests advantages pensioners with most of their wealth stored in the family home relative to those with the same wealth holdings, but spread across a more diversified portfolio. Policymakers describe this as being “horizontally inequitable” – where people of similar origin and intelligence do not have equal access to wealth.
The current system also causes inefficiencies in housing markets. It encourages “empty nester” older households to live in houses that are large relative to their household size. For income-poor older Australians, this can have perverse consequences. Equity released from downsizing could generate income to help meet acute spending needs in old age.
At the same time, wealth portfolios dominated by housing leave owners over-exposed to house price risks that they cannot hedge. Means-testing the family home would cause future homebuyers to scale back their housing investments. As a result, they would be more likely to hold more balanced wealth portfolios.
<h2>The case against means-testing the family home</h2>
The problem is, older Australians choosing to downsize or access some sort of equity-release product face tax penalties under the current system.
The net proceeds on downsizing are an assessible asset that can reduce income-support payments, while stamp duty eats into the proceeds. And a lack of suitable housing options frustrates many would-be down-sizers who want to stay living in their local communities. Equity-release products also expose owners to investment and credit risks because interest rates are variable and house prices can fall.
Encouraging people to tap the value in their home instead of accessing welfare payments requires stable housing asset values and continuing high rates of home ownership. However, there is already clear evidence of declining rates of home ownership and increasing indebtedness. These trends are not restricted to young Australians; they are also evident among those approaching retirement.
And if in future we witness the sharp declines in house prices that many countries suffered during the global financial crisis, housing equity will prove to be an unreliable asset base for welfare needs.
<h2>Is there a pathway to reform?</h2>
The challenges facing older Australians who downsize or access home-equity products can be mitigated by the introduction of financial instruments or government-backed schemes that allow owners to hedge house price risks. Stamp-duty exemptions could reduce the financial costs of downsizing.
It also needs to be recognised that current pensioners made their home purchase and investment decisions on the basis of tax-transfer rules that were expected to remain in place. In light of this, grandfathering provisions would need to be part of any reform package. This would enable transitional arrangements, preventing major disruption in housing markets and the lives of current pensioners.
It is important to note if budget savings are the main motivation, the government should look at reforming housing tax concessions. These concessions are largely received by higher-income older home owners. Curbing these concessions would be a more equitable way of achieving budget savings while also improving the resilience and efficiency of housing markets.
Rachel Ong is deputy director, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre, Curtin University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rachel-ong-113482" target="_blank">here.</a>
Gavin Wood is professor of Housing, RMIT University, and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gavin-wood-113723" target="_blank">here</a>.
Both are authors for The Conversation.
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