Dwelling Values

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Low mortgage rates, a swift economic recovery, which has spurred consumer sentiment, and low listing volumes have catapulted national housing values to new record highs. At the end of March, the CoreLogic national home value index increased a further 2.8%, placing values 5.6% above the previous market peak in October 2017. The combined value of Australian dwellings hit $7.9 trillion dollars over the month, according to CoreLogic. This cements residential property as an extremely large and important asset class.

Comparing current capital city values with previous peaks adds some perspective to the current upswing – particularly in Perth and Darwin, where values remain substantially below their record highs from 2014. It also highlights the very different dynamics across capital cities – such as in the ACT, where dwelling values have hit a new record high every month for 19 months.

The following charts plot the change in capital city dwelling values from previous peaks, and the number of months it has taken for values to surpass the previous peak. The subsequent downturn and recovery trends vary, and are unpacked below.  
 

 

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<h2>Sydney</h2>

Sydney dwelling values took 44 months to reach a new record high value. While values have lifted a relatively high 8.1% since the COVID-induced decline (which bottomed out in September 2020), the total value of the dwelling market is actually only 2.6% higher than the previous peak, which was in July of 2017. 

In 2017, a property price downturn was likely catalysed by changes to lending conditions. Cash rate reductions, along with a relaxation in borrower serviceability assessment rules, spurred the start of a recovery trend through 2019. COVID-19 interrupted this upswing, but a recovery in economic conditions, and increased consumer confidence, has pushed values above the previous peak.  
 

<h2>Melbourne</h2>

Melbourne dwelling values reached a peak in March 2020, after staging a recovery from the earlier 11.1% drop in values between late 2017 and mid-2019. However, the Melbourne housing market was the most impacted of any capital city by COVID-19, due to extended social distancing restrictions through 2020, and a particularly high exposure to overseas migration as a source of housing demand.  Closed borders created a negative shock, with a more significant and direct impact on inner city rental demand. Since bottoming out in October 2020, as stage 4 lockdowns began to ease, Melbourne dwelling values have climbed 0.7% above the pre-COVID high. 

As the value of Melbourne housing nudges over its previous peak, it is worth noting the market has not recovered evenly. House values remain -1.8% below the previous November 2017 high due to a larger correction through the recent downturns. Within different price segments, there is also variation. As of March, the ‘high’ end of the market (measured as the top 25% of values in Melbourne) was still -4.0% below its record high, which was in October 2017. Meanwhile, low and middle tier values have increased beyond their pre-COVID highs by 4.9% and 2.2% respectively, reflecting a smaller decline turn recent downturns, as well as strong demand from first home buyers who typically target properties around the middle-to-lower end of the market.  
 

<h2>Brisbane</h2>

Brisbane dwelling values are sitting 6.5% above the previous peak, which was in April 2020. Market values saw a peak-to-trough decline of -0.9% through COVID-19. The decline lasted just 4 months, before Brisbane dwelling values recovered to a new record high by October 2020.

As with Melbourne, the recovery in the Brisbane market has been varied. While house values climbed 7.6% above the previous peak through March, which was reached in May of 2020, unit values remain -9.4% below the record high value, which was in March 2010.  Brisbane unit values are currently at similar levels as October 2007, reflecting a very affordable entry point to the market.

The weaker conditions across the unit sector are likely due to previously high levels of unit completions keeping values subdued, particularly in the later part of the 2010s. ABS dwelling completion data saw unit completions across Queensland rise 50.4% in the 5 years to September 2020, compared with a 17.4% uplift in house completions. However, strong internal migration flows to south-east Queensland, as well as other tailwinds for housing demand more broadly, has supported 5 consecutive months of growth in Brisbane unit values since November 2020. 
 

<h2>Adelaide</h2>

The Adelaide dwelling market was one of the least affected through COVID-19 in terms of values. Following a -0.2% dip from the previous high in May 2020, values had surpassed the previous peak by September last year. The rate of change in dwelling values jumped to a monthly increase of 1.5% over March 2021, which is the highest monthly growth rate seen across the city since December 2007. Both house and unit values across Adelaide are currently sitting at a record high. Although housing values are reaching new highs each month, relative to the larger capital cities, Adelaide housing values remain low. 
 

<h2>Perth</h2>

The CoreLogic home value index for Perth shows values -15.9% below the record high, which was in June 2014. The peak-to-trough decline, which was induced by the rapid withdrawal of mining investment, employment opportunity and migration, lasted around 67 months. As the market started to recover in mid-2019, COVID-19 created an additional, negative shock, which pushed values down a further -2.2% between April and July of 2020. However, the Perth dwelling market has seen consecutive increases in value for the past 8 months. For the past 5 months, value increases have exceeded 1% a month, which is a strong growth rate and signals the start of what may be a sustained and rapid recovery. This coincides with rising interstate migration levels to Western Australia, and projected increases in already rising mining investment. Hobart

Hobart has seen the second-highest uplift in housing values from the previous peak, at 12.3%. The previous peak in dwelling values was at February 2020, before a brief, COVID-induced decline in total dwelling values of just -0.3%. Hobart dwelling values have seen extraordinarily strong growth, with the annualised capital growth return sitting at 9.4% for a 5 year period (+56.3% over the past five years). ABS building activity data suggests house commencements were 32.8% above the decade average through the September 2020 quarter in Tasmania. Combined with affordability constraints, additional stock should work to ease growth rates across the region in the coming months.  
 

<h2>Darwin</h2>

Darwin dwelling values are the furthest from the previous peak of the capital city markets. A record high was reached across Darwin dwellings in May 2014. Similar to Perth, a decline in the resources related infrastructure sector saw a substantial decline in housing values, with the peak-to-trough fall extending to February 2020, at -32.7%. Since February 2020 however, Darwin dwelling values have increased 16.5% through to March 2021 which is the fastest growth rate amongst the capitals. This leaves values -21.6% below the record high, and shows the Darwin dwelling market firmly in a recovery trend.   
 

<h2>ACT</h2>

ACT dwelling values at the end of March were 16.9% higher than the previous peak, which was in April 2019. Following a -1.5% peak-to-trough decline, ACT dwelling values had recovered by September 2019, and have hit a new record high each month since. Rapid dwelling value growth across the capital has largely been driven by house values, which are 19.7% above the previous high in April 2019, compared with a 7.2% uplift in unit values since the previous high. Part of the strength in ACT dwelling value returns have been due to relatively high incomes across the Territory, along with resilient labour market performance through COVID-19. However, the fact that dwelling values have surged almost 17% in less than two years, highlights an increasing barrier to ownership for future first home buyer cohorts. 

 

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The combined value of Australian dwellings hit $7.9 trillion dollars over the month, according to CoreLogic, cementing residential property as an extremely important asset class

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How do dwelling values compare with previous highs? Eliza Owen

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GUEST OBSERVER
When renovating for profit, never rely on a selling agent’s estimate of renovated value.
Buyers should do their own research to establish the ceiling price of fully-renovated properties in the suburbs they are looking to buy.
You can’t rely on selling agents to give you an accurate estimate of the renovated value of a property.
Not only is it in their nature to be very bullish with sale prices as no one wants to list their property for sale with a pessimist; it’s also in their clients’ financial interest for them to be bullish.
They want to paint the property in the best possible light to encourage you to make an offer on it. 
The other problem is that it’s also an unqualified estimate as they may interpret what you intend to do with the property as more high end than you are actually planning.
Many property experts are predicting that unrenovated houses will be the most sought-after property purchases in 2017 as buyers shy away from an oversupply of new apartment buildings.
Those properties in need of renovation will be even more popular this year especially if they are livable, allowing DIY renovators to move in and reside onsite whilst undertaking renovation works over time.
When you’re renovating for profit, adding value is the name of the game.
Unfortunately you can’t add unlimited value to a property because there is a limit as to what the market will pay no matter how good it looks.
Once a home has reached its ceiling price for the accommodation it offers, buyers will not pay more.
When you’re undertaking comparable market analysis you need to establish the ceiling price of fully renovated properties that are similar to the ones you’re targeting.
Be mindful of the top values and resist the temptation to overspend.
Tips when searching for an unrenovated property:
<ol>
<li>Get to know the price difference between renovated and unrenovated properties in your chosen area so you know what you can spend and still not overcapitalise.</li>
<li>Find out which streets to avoid and the unique pockets that attract higher prices.</li>
<li>Understand the value of desirable features: parking, views, proximity to shops, schools, parks and public transport.</li>
<li>Get lots of ideas for improvements for your property by looking at the features of other homes that are for sale.</li>
</ol>
 
Patrick Bright is the Director of buyer’s agency EPS Property Search and can be contacted <a href="https://www.epspropertysearch.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Never rely on a selling agent's estimate of renovated value: Patrick Bright

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Dwelling values across Australia’s capital cities were 0.9% higher in January driven partially by a small rebound in Sydney and Melbourne.
The recent growth conditions have pushed the Melbourne market into first place for annual growth in dwelling values with an 11% rise compared with Sydney where values are 10.5% higher over the past twelve months.
But both major capitals are down over the quarter.
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According to the January 2016 CoreLogic RP Data Hedonic Home Value Index results released today, dwelling values across Australia’s combined capital cities showed a 0.9 per cent rise in January after recording no change in December and a 1.5 per cent drop in November. 
CoreLogic RP Data head of research Tim Lawless noted this month on month rise wasn’t quite enough to pull the rolling quarterly rate of growth back into the black, with capital city dwelling values remaining 0.6% lower over the past three months.
Hobart led the monthly figures with a 4.7% jump in values, followed by Melbourne where values were 2.5% higher and Canberra with a 2.8% lift.
Sydney values also showed a rise of 0.5%, while the remaining four capital cities showed dwelling values to be either flat or down.
The rolling quarterly trend was looking similarly diverse, with four of Australia’s eight capital cities recording negative dwelling value movements over the past three months, with Sydney dwelling values showing the largest fall, down 2.1 per cent. Values are down over the rolling quarter in Darwin (-1.4%), Adelaide (-0.9%) and Melbourne (-0.1%) as well.
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The strongest growth in home values over the quarter across the capital cities was found in Hobart with a 3% capital gain.
Despite recording the largest annual decline in home values (-4.1%), Perth dwelling values posted a 1.7 per cent rise over the three months to the end of January.
Other capital cities to record a rise over the rolling quarter were Brisbane (+0.8%) and Canberra (+1.2%).
Over the past twelve months, capital city dwelling values have risen by 7.4% with Sydney’s capital gains of 10.5% no longer the highest annual rate across the capitals.
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“While still a high rate of annual growth, Sydney’s annual rate of capital gain is now at a 29 month low and has been progressively softening since peaking at 18.4% in July last year,” Mr Lawless said.
“Melbourne’s housing market has been more resilient to slowing growth conditions which has propelled the annual growth rate to the highest of any capital city, with dwelling values 11.0% higher over the past twelve months.
 
"Previously, during the height of the growth phase, there was a large separation between Sydney’s housing market, which was streaking ahead, and Melbourne’s, where the rate of capital gain was substantial but still well below the heights being recorded in Sydney.
"Over the past six months, the performance gap between Sydney and Melbourne is stark.
"Sydney dwelling values have reduced by 0.6 percent between July last year and the end of January 2016, compared with a 3.0 percent rise across Melbourne dwelling values.
"The last six months have also seen both Brisbane and Canberra dwelling values rise by 2.0 percent while Hobart values are 1.3 percent higher and Adelaide dwelling values have been virtually flat with a 0.1 percent rise,” Mr Lawless said. 
 
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Move over Sydney, Melbourne takes over as the best performing capital city 

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Dwelling values across the combined capital cities fell 1.1 percent in May month on month on the back of declines in Sydney and Melbourne.
Releasing the CoreLogic May 2017 Home Value Index Results, Tim Lawless, CoreLogic head of research said values have fallen during May in four of the past five years.
Reading through the seasonality, he said, indicates that value growth in the market has lost momentum, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne where affordability constraints are more evident and investors have comprised a larger proportion of housing demand.
 “The past three months has seen capital city dwelling values rise by a modest 0.4 percent, with four of the eight capitals recording a fall. Over the past three months, Sydney dwelling values are unchanged while Melbourne values have increased by 0.7 percent,” he said.
“The trend in growth rates across the smaller capital cities was mixed with dwelling values across Brisbane and Adelaide continuing to inch higher while values in Perth and Darwin showed further easing over the most recent rolling quarter.
"A steep drop in the Hobart index has reversed the gains recorded over the previous quarter and the Canberra index was also -1.5 percent lower over the past three months.
“Adding to the complexity in reading the current market is the recent Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) announcements at the end of March for a new round of macroprudential measures aimed at slowing the pace of interest only lending.”
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He said another factor that is likely contributing to slower growth conditions is a dent in consumer confidence as consumer sentiment towards housing, as measured by Westpac and the Melbourne Institute, has shown a marked downturn in May.
“In particular, the Westpac ‘time to buy a dwelling index’, fell 6.5 percent over the month. According to Westpac, ‘consumer sentiment towards housing shows an increasingly negative view’.
"Other market indicators suggest a slower pace of growth such as a reduction in market activity, a moderating trend in auction clearance rates and rising advertised stock levels.
“It appears that housing activity has eased which is attributable to a range of factors including affordability constraints, tighter credit policies, rising mortgage rates and a downturn in consumer sentiment towards housing."
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According to the report the largest year-on-year falls have been in Melbourne (-12.4 percent), Brisbane (-11.1 percent) and Sydney (-4.3 percent) suggesting that housing demand has eased relative to a year ago across the three largest cities.
CoreLogic’s Mortgage Index was tracking 9.3 percent lower than at the same time last year over May.
The number of residential properties advertised for sale has started to edge higher across some cities, with Sydney in particular seeing a surge in newly advertised stock, up 15 percent compared with last year, while total advertised listings are now 6.3 percent higher than a year ago, according to Mr Lawless.
He said higher stock levels should provide prospective buyers with more choice and reduce some of the urgency that has been contributing to rapid selling times and price escalation. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/31/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-01%20at%209.49.37%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/31/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-01%20at%209.49.37%20AM.png" alt="">
"Based on the most recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, investors comprised 48 percent of the value of new mortgage demand (excluding refinances) in March, well above the long term average, but the lowest proportion of mortgage demand since August last year," he said.
“Considering we are yet to see the full effect of the recent round of macroprudential measures flow through, there is a high possibility that investor activity, and consequently housing demand, will slow further during 2017.
“Investor demand will also be dampened due to higher mortgage rates and tighter credit policies as well as the added disincentive of low rental yields and reduced ability to claim depreciation and travel expenses.
“While we are expecting investment activity to slow, the fact is other asset classes aren’t likely to be as attractive as property to investors. Cash and bonds continue to provide low but safe returns and equities remain volatile. Considering the alternatives, we are likely to see property investment remain a popular option,” he said.
"Mortgage rates could edge higher over coming months as lenders accommodate recent macroprudential announcements within their credit policies.
"The funding levy announced in this year’s federal budget could also see higher mortgage rates as lenders potentially pass on some of the associated costs.
“The jury is still out on whether the housing market has peaked, however if it hasn’t, a peak could be just around the corner.
"Based on CoreLogic data, as well as other indicators, it’s fair to say that growth conditions appear to be slowing in Sydney and Melbourne while the performance across other capital city regions remains mixed.
"The housing market remains as diverse as ever and the flow of data over coming months will be critical to get a better understanding of the trends.” 
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Melbourne housing market declined in May, and so did Sydney

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/64877/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
The Sydney property market creates shocks that spill over to other capital cities, and Hobart is one of the worst affected, new research from the University of New South Wales shows.
The study looked at all eight Australian capital cities. Perth and Darwin’s housing market appeared to be the least affected by shocks originating in other capitals.
“We shouldn’t think of Australian housing markets as being completely isolated. It’s not the case that whatever happens in Sydney doesn’t have any implications for what happens in other housing markets,” says Associate Professor Glenn Otto, the author of the research.
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Professor Otto examined data on median house prices and rents, from the early 1980s till 2015, released quarterly by the Real Estate Institute of Australia.
He modelled how variations in capital gains and rental returns in each of the cities affected returns in other cities, over twelve month periods.
“You historically don’t see a big share of Brisbane or Melbourne type shocks spilling over to other markets,” Professor Otto noted.
The spillover effects to different capital city housing markets have been increasing over time since the mid 1990s and account for about 40 to 50% of the variance in forecast property returns to houses and units.
“From time to time you’ll get predictions that we’ve built too many units in the Melbourne housing market and there’s an oversupply and its specific to these markets, so we’ll see some price correction.
“The thing I was interested in was, looking at the historical data, was to what extent that correction won’t be specific to the particular market but also will feed through to other markets,” said Professor Otto.
The research also examined the split between houses and units. Although there wasn’t a huge difference in results for the two different dwelling types, the cities most affected by shocks in terms of units were Brisbane and Hobart and for houses it’s Canberra and Hobart.
Professor Otto is now planning to research what causes these spillover effects and what that can tell us about volatility in Australia’s housing market.
“Australian cities are quite isolated so we wouldn’t necessarily expect people to be picking up and moving between cities in response to changes in property prices, but what we might see is investors thinking about where they want to buy and sell property.
“To that extent investors may be becoming an increasingly important part of the housing market, maybe that’s one mechanism by which we can see this kind of effect of one city being transferred to another city,” Professor Otto said.
The research was funded by an Australian Research Council Linkage Project Grant.
Jenni Henderson is assistant editor, Business and Economy, The Conversation and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/team#jenni-henderson" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Sydney property market price shocks spread to other capital cities

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GUEST OBSERVER
The latest quarterly housing market sentiment survey by CoreLogic and TEG rewards revealed that almost two thirds of Australians think now is a good time to be purchasing residential property while roughly the same proportion believed the housing market is vulnerable to a significant correction.
The latest CoreLogic and TEG Rewards Housing Market Sentiment Survey highlights the paradox in housing market attitudes, with the large majority of survey respondents indicating that it’s a good time to buy a home at a time when the market may be vulnerable to a significant downturn.
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Of the 2,432 Australian residents who participated in the June quarter CoreLogic TEG Rewards Housing Market Sentiment Survey, 64 percent of respondents thought it was a good time to buy a dwelling, up from 60 percent of respondents a year ago.
Sydney-based respondents, where affordability constraints are the most pressing of any capital city, were the most pessimistic about whether now is a good time to buy a property, however slightly more than half the respondents still felt it was a good time to buy.
Conversely, the regions where dwelling values have peaked and shown a downturn are where respondents are most confident about buying conditions. 80% or more of respondents in the Northern Territory, Regional Western Australia and Perth indicated they thought it was a good time to buy.
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With such as a large proportion of survey respondents thinking that now is a good time to buy a dwelling, it was surprising to see almost two thirds (65 percent) also indicated they thought dwelling values could suffer a significant correction. While the results suggest that survey respondents are concerned there could be a substantial fall in Australian home values, the proportion is lower from a year ago when 75% of respondents thought the market was vulnerable to a significant correction in values.
When asked whether dwelling values would rise, fall or remain steady over the next twelve months, the majority of respondents expected values to remain steady, with Tasmanians the most optimistic about the direction of value growth over the next twelve months.
Nationally, 38 percent of respondents are expecting dwelling values to rise over the next twelve months. In contrast, a year ago 45% of respondents thought values would rise, indicating that respondents have become less optimistic with regards to their views on capital gains over the next financial year.
For rental market conditions, only 11 percent of survey respondents are expecting weekly rents to fall over the next twelve months, despite the CoreLogic rental series showing the weakest rental conditions in at least two decades.
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Nationally, almost equal numbers of survey respondents indicated that weekly rents would either rise or remain stable over the coming twelve months, however there were some considerable variations across the regions.
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<img src="/images/2016/07/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-27%20at%2010.49.44%20AM.png" alt="">
Less than one fifth of respondents in Perth and Regional Western Australia think weekly rents will rise. The low expectation of rental rises in these areas is in line with current rental statistics which show ongoing falls in weekly rents across most parts of Western Australia.
Tim Lawless is head of the CoreLogic research and analytics team and can be contacted <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Two thirds of Australians think now is a good time to be purchasing residential property: Tim Lawless

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GUEST OBSERVER
The CoreLogic Home Value Index of capital city home prices rose by 1.4 percent in March and was up 12.9 percent over the year.
Prices rose in all eight capital cities with Canberra and Darwin up the most (up 3.1 percent). Regional house prices by 0.8 percent in February (latest available).
Manufacturing: The Performance of Manufacturing index eased from 15-year highs, down by 1.8 points to 57.5 in March. A reading above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding. This was the sixth consecutive month of expansion.
Home price data is important for retailers, especially those focussed on consumer durables. The manufacturing data provides guidance for companies in the Industrials sector.
What does it all mean?
The economic data has certainly started off the week on a healthy footing. Stronger home prices in March while manufacturing activity barely eased from 15 year highs.
It may be no surprise to see that home prices continue to lift across most capital cities. But what was clearly surprising was the magnitude of the lift in prices. Probably even more surprising was that home prices rose in all eight capital cities. Across the nation home prices rose by a substantial 1.4 per cent in March, matching a similar result in February and December 2016.
In fact over the four months to March home prices have accelerated by 4.9 percent – the strongest four-month period in 18 months.
Across the capital cities, it was encouraging that Darwin and Hobart featured heavily when it came to the strength in home prices as opposed to Sydney and Melbourne.
Interestingly the key resource states saw a rebound in home prices, although annual growth remained weak. The sustained lift in commodity prices may help to alleviate some of the weakness in home prices in coming months.
Overall policymakers will keep a close eye on the housing sector in the early part of 2017, and will prefer to see more balanced house price growth across the nation. In particular, a lift in regional house prices would be a positive outcome. Annual growth in home prices across regional centres was a healthier 4 per cent over the past 12 months.
Click to enlarge
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-03%20at%2011.45.04%20AM.png" alt="">
What do the figures show?
Home prices
The CoreLogic Home Value Index of capital city home prices rose by 1.4 per cent in March and was up 12.9 per cent over the year.
In regional Australia, house prices rose by 0.8 per cent in February and were just 4 per cent higher than a year ago. (Regional prices cover just houses and data is up to the end of February). 
In capital cities, house prices rose by 1.5 per cent in March while apartment prices rose by 0.9 per cent. House prices were up 13.4 per cent on a year ago and apartments were up by 9.8 per cent.
The average Australian capital city house price (median price based on settled sales over quarter) was $613,000 and the average unit price was $512,200.
Dwelling prices rose in all eight capital cities in March: Hobart (up 3.1 per cent), Darwin (up 3.1 per cent), Melbourne (up 1.9 per cent), Canberra (up 1.4 per cent), Sydney (up 1.4 per cent), Perth (up 1 per cent), Adelaide (up 0.4 per cent) and Brisbane (up 0.2 per cent).
Home prices were higher than a year ago in six of the eight capital cities. Prices rose most in Sydney (up 18.9 per cent); followed by Melbourne (up 15.9 per cent), Canberra (up 12.8 per cent); Hobart (up 10.2 per cent); Adelaide (up 3.4 per cent); and Brisbane (up 3.7 per cent). Prices fell in Perth (down by 4.7 per cent) and Darwin (down 4.4 per cent)
Total returns on capital city dwellings rose by 16.7 per cent in the year to March with houses up 17.1 per cent on a year earlier and units up 14.3 per cent.
Performance of Manufacturing
The Performance of Manufacturing index fell from 15-year highs, down by 1.8 points to 57.5 in March. A reading above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding. This was the sixth consecutive month of expansion.
AIG notes “All seven activity sub-indexes in the Australian PMI® expanded in March (seasonally adjusted). Expansions in new orders (62.6 points) and sales (57.7 points) strengthened. Production expanded while slowing from more robust growth last month (57.6 points) as did employment (54.1 points). Deliveries (52.9 points) and exports (51.1 points) eased to more modest growth, while inventories turned up in March (55.5 points).”
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“Comments from manufacturers in March indicate that demand continues to recover. Positive factors for demand include: higher prices for coal and other commodities; large infrastructure projects; the NBN rollout; stronger defence spending and stronger activity in the agricultural sector. Energy prices (particularly electricity) continue to play havoc with manufacturers. Concerns about energy pricing and security of supply are eroding profitability and confidence. Other input prices are increasing (including steel prices), which is putting manufacturers’ margins under further pressure. Export growth appear to be easing off for some manufacturers, compared to the strong surge of exports seen in 2016.”
What is the importance of the economic data?
  The CoreLogic Hedonic Australian Home Value Index is based on Australia’s biggest property database. Unlike the ABS Index, which excludes terraces, semi-detached homes and apartments, the CoreLogic Hedonic Index includes all properties. Home prices are an important driver of wealth and spending.
  The Australian Industry Group compiles the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) each month. The Australian PMI is the Australian equivalent of the US ISM manufacturing gauge. The PMI is one of the timeliest economic indicators released in Australia. The PMI is useful not just in showing how the manufacturing sector is performing but in providing some sense about where it is heading. The key ‘forward looking’ components are orders and employment.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
  Activity in the manufacturing sector is encouraging, especially the lift in new orders that has been identified in recent months. All the published data and anecdotes indicate that business conditions have markedly improved since the flat spot recorded for the economy in mid-2016.
  Investors are once again driving key housing markets such as Sydney and Melbourne. But there are more risks, with investors relying on expected capital appreciation for returns on their investment rather than rising rents. More apartments are being built, supply will catch up to demand and growth of home prices will ease over the next few years. Investors need to be aware of the risks including recent actions by regulators to slow housing demand.
  The broad-based health of Australian housing markets reduces the potential for further rate cuts. While fixed- term lending rates have lifted, it is still too early to canvas possible rate hikes from the Reserve Bank. 
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
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Home prices accelerate: Savanth Sebastian

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Apartment prices in capital cities could fall between 15 to 20 percent over the next two years, AMP Capital's chief economist Shane Oliver has forecast.
Dr Oliver says "there was a massive multi-dwelling building boom going on in Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and Perth". 
"There's a real risk of oversupply," he told Money News.
"I wouldn't be surprised to see outright price falls in apartments in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth," he said in his earlier note to clients. 
"So people are better off waiting until the dust settles to see if there are any opportunities to buy apartments with a lower price tag." 
"Obviously if you are buying in an area where there are lots of cranes around, the price falls are going to be greater," he said. 
A "heat map" of cranes would show the concentration of cranes were highest in the Melbourne CBD whereas Sydney's apartment construction was more spread out, he added. 
Dr Oliver said a slump in the Australian housing market would be driven by a glut of supply rather than investors defaulting, unlike the subprime crisis in the US in 2007.
"I don't think one should get too alarmed here because you've first got to put this in context," he said. 
"We've just had a massive run up in home prices across Sydney and Melbourne across the last four years, and that includes apartment prices."
"Just bear in mind that comes on the back of 30 to 40 percent gains over the last four years, so we really need to put this in context."
He said that investors or home buyers looking to buy a home should be cautious.
"Just allow that there is a lot of supply coming on, that's already putting downwards pressure on rents."
Shane suggested that he thinks supply in Australia over the next couple of years will put a major downwards pressure on prices in certain areas.
"At some point I think is that supply continues to mount and don't forget we saw another spike up in approvals to build new apartments just a month or so ago that's still continuing.
"If you are in the market for a home, try and go for those areas where there is stronger demand relative to the supply that's coming on."
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Apartment prices to tumble by up to 20 percent: AMP Capital's Shane Oliver

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GUEST OBSERVER
Across Australia’s capital cities, price growth has slowed with house prices up 6.1 percent in the year to July 2016 and unit prices increasing by 6.0 percent.
Since the low point in 2012, capital city house prices have increased by 40.0 percent in aggregate while unit prices rose by 29.8 percent. Unit prices started to recover a few months earlier than house prices;
Since bottoming out, the divergence between dwelling price growth in the different capital cities has been remarkably wide. The biggest uplifts have been in Sydney (+61.3 per cent) and Melbourne (+42.0 per cent). At the other end of the scale, Perth (-8.3 per cent) and Darwin (-12.7 per cent) prices have fallen substantially since peaking in 2014;
Despite the considerable variation during the current cycle, price growth across the capital cities has been quite uniform over the past two decades. In real terms, house prices have increased by 5.3 per cent annually compared with 3.9 per cent growth in unit prices;
The ratio of the median dwelling price to average earnings has increased substantially over the past two decades. Much of this is explained by structural changes in household size, economic participation rates, earnings patterns and the level of mortgage interest rates;
During the June 2016 quarter, the price to earnings ratio was 6.96 for houses and 5.80 for units. The highest ratios were in Sydney and Melbourne, with the lowest in Hobart and Perth. With the exception of Sydney, affordability is more favourable than the 15-year average in all capitals;
With respect to wider economic and financial conditions, dwelling prices across Australia appear to be proportionate. However, the wide geographical variation in current conditions means than some markets are likely to experience significantly stronger price growth than others over the medium term. 
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This is an update of the HIA Economics note on dwelling prices which was released in November 2015. 
That piece of research then reported on how annual dwelling price growth across Australia’s eight capital city markets reached 10.1 per cent during October 2015. Since then, the pace of dwelling price growth has slowed and latest data show that dwelling prices increased by 6.1 per cent during the year to July 2016. Over this period, detached house price growth (+6.1 per cent) was almost exactly the same as the growth in unit prices (+6.0 per cent). Later, we explore in greater detail the relationship between house price growth and unit price growth over time in each of the capital city markets. 
As was the case late last year, the variation in dwelling price growth trends is very large when comparing capital cities. The chart below illustrates the changes in house and unit prices in each of the capital cities over the year to July 2016. House prices saw the largest increase in Sydney over the year (+9.0 per cent) followed by Melbourne (+8.0 per cent). Over the same period, the largest increase in unit prices occurred in Hobart (+12.9 per cent) and Sydney (+9.4 per cent). Despite the strong uplifts in several markets, house prices fell quite significantly in both Perth (-5.6 per cent) and Darwin (-5.9 per cent). Over the year, unit prices declined in three capital cities: Perth (-5.8 per cent), Darwin (-14.6 per cent) and Canberra (-0.4 per cent). 
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Aggregated data for the eight capital cities indicate that dwelling prices bottomed out during May 2012 and have since expanded fairly consistently in all capitals apart from Perth and Darwin. The chart below summarises the cumulative increase in detached house prices in each market during the current cycle. Overall, detached house prices increased by 40.0 per cent across the eight capitals between May 2012 and July 2016. The largest house price rise occurred in Sydney over this period (+65.7 per cent), followed by Melbourne (+45.2 per cent) and Brisbane (+18.6 per cent). In contrast, house prices in Perth and Darwin have fallen back since reaching their peaks in 2014. Perth house prices have declined by 8.3 per cent while Darwin house prices are down by 11.8 per cent. Of the cities that have experienced consistent price growth, Canberra has seen the smallest increase in house prices since the 2012 trough (+13.0 per cent). 
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The comparison between prices for detached houses and units in terms of growth is illuminating in several respects. The increase in unit prices has been significantly less pronounced during the current cycle. Also, the upturn in unit prices appears to have commenced about six months earlier than the recovery in detached house prices. Whereas detached house prices have increased by 40.0 per cent during the current cycle, unit price growth has been about 10 percentage points lower (+29.8 per cent). Over the same period, detached house prices have outpaced unit price growth in every single capital city apart from Hobart. This may be related to the smaller sample size in Hobart, as well as the shorter timeframe being analysed for the city.
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The pace at which detached house prices have outrun unit prices during the current cycle is greatest in Brisbane (18.6 per cent v 6.7 per cent), followed by Canberra (13.0 per cent v 5.5 per cent) and Melbourne (45.2 per cent v 20.1 per cent). It is also worth noting that in the Perth and Darwin markets where prices are falling, unit prices have dropped considerably faster than detached house prices. Hobart is the only capital city where unit prices have increased by more than detached house prices in the current cycle (+27.3 per cent v +16.1 per cent). The behaviour of prices in the current cycle underlines the great degree of heterogeneity both across and within the capital city markets. 
How do dwelling prices behave over the long run? 
Assessing dwelling price growth over time allows us to net out the effects of cycles and temporary factors and capture a sense of long-term trajectory of price dynamics. The chart below illustrates the real annual average growth rate for both detached house and unit prices over the 20-year period to the June 2016 quarter (due to data availability constraints, a 15-year timescale is used for both Hobart and Darwin). These data suggest that growth in real detached house prices tends to outpace unit price growth over the long run (5.3 per cent v 3.9 per cent per year). This was the case in each of the eight capital cities, with the single exception of Hobart. 
Perhaps the most striking takeaway is that real dwelling price growth rates across each of the eight capital cities tend to lie within a relatively narrow band over the long run, especially in the detached house market. Real detached house price growth was strongest in Melbourne over the two decades in question (+6.4 per cent annually) and weakest in Brisbane (+4.3 per cent) over the same period. However, six of the eight capital cities were all less than one percentage point apart in terms of real detached house price growth on an annual basis (ranging from 4.4 per cent to 5.3 per cent per year). 
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Compared with detached house prices, the divergence in real unit price growth has been wider from city to city. Over the long term, Hobart units have experienced the largest increase in real terms (+5.6 per cent annually) with the slowest pace of growth in Brisbane (+2.2 per cent per year). In the other six capitals, real unit price growth has been concentrated in a relatively narrow range of between 3.0 per cent and 4.7 per cent annually. 
Despite the considerable differences in economic structure, geographies and the regulatory framework across Australia’s eight capital cities, real dwelling prices still behave in remarkably similar ways from city to city over long periods of time with detached house prices consistently growing more strongly than those of units, although there tends to be much greater price variation on the unit side of the market. 
A possible implication of this is that those markets which have seen recent the strongest price growth exceed the long term average in the recent past are most at risk of below par price performance over the coming years. By the same token, the markets that have recently seen price growth underperformed the long term average rate performed weakest in terms of price are most likely to see future acceleration in price growth. 
Price to Earnings: the relative price of housing 
While median disposable household income is the most conceptually sound indicator for benchmarking dwelling prices relative to income in the economy, the fact that these data are released only once per year with a long lag means that other measures must be utilised for more timely and frequent updates. Accordingly, this note uses average earnings as a barometer for household income due to the fact that earnings data are produced twice yearly (for the May and November ‘quarters’) in a relatively timely fashion. However, it is important to note that earnings data are an imperfect gauge of households’ financial resources, as no account is taken of direct taxation, unearned income (such as pensions, etc.) and income in kind.1 
Based on the average earnings data available from the ABS, the chart below provides an overview of the median dwelling price to earnings ratio across Australia since 1995, including data for detached houses and units. Over this period, the ratio has increased from 3.79 in the June 1995 quarter to 6.57 during the June 2016 quarter. The median detached house price is now 6.96 times earnings, compared with 3.83 in June 1995. On the unit side of the market, the price to earnings ratio has increased from 3.73 to 5.80.
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At first glance, this suggests that dwelling prices have lost touch with prices and incomes in the economy. However, the big uplift in the price to earnings ratio can largely be explained by two structural changes over the past 20 years. First, the number of employees per household has risen significantly over the two decades due to higher female labour force participation rates, a trend towards taking retirement at older ages and changes in the structure of some households involving greater numbers of young professionals in ‘share’ housing. The secular reduction in interest rates over this period has also permitted dwelling prices to grow faster, due to the fact that homebuyers can affordably service much larger mortgages at current interest rates than was the case when the interest burden was much higher. It is worth noting that the RBA’s Official Cash Rate in August 2016 of 1.50 per cent is only one quarter of the 6.00 rate in August 2006 and an even smaller fraction of the 7.00 per cent cash rate of August 1996. 
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Given the wide variation in dwelling price levels across Australia, it is useful to compare the ratio of dwelling price to earnings in the eight capital cities. This is shown in the chart below for each city during the June 2016 quarter for both detached houses and units. In Sydney, the detached house price to earnings ratio continues to be the highest in the country but eased back to 9.55 during the June 2016 quarter, after reaching an all-time high of 10.31 during the final quarter of last year. Detached house price to earnings ratios are also elevated in Melbourne (7.72) and Canberra (6.96). The ranking in terms of unit price to earnings ratios is similar: it is highest in Sydney (7.31), followed by Melbourne (6.03), although Brisbane is in third place (4.86). 
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The detached house price to earnings ratio is lowest in Hobart (4.53), followed by Perth (5.50) and Adelaide (5.92). In terms of unit prices, the pattern is similar. The price to earnings ratio is lowest in Hobart (3.67), followed by Perth (4.29) and Canberra (4.65). Across the eight capital cities, the detached house price to earnings ratio in the June 2016 quarter was 6.96 with the median unit price at 5.80 times average annual earnings. The tendency of dwelling price growth rates to converge implies that the capacity for future dwelling price growth is most limited in those markets where the ratio of dwelling prices to earnings is high, and vice versa. 
The importance of affordability 
While the dwelling price to earnings ratio is a useful snapshot of valuations, it does not take account of changes in financing costs which have fallen sharply over the past decade. The chart below provides an estimate of affordability in both the detached house and unit segments of the market, which is calculated as the ratio of mortgage repayments to gross average earnings of an individual (note that the average household earnings is are greater than the earnings of an individual in the vast majority of cases) on the purchase of a median price dwelling2. With the exception of the GFC period, affordability has shown rather steady improvement over the past decade. The eventual reversion to higher mortgage interest rates over the long term, however, is likely to put affordability under some pressure given that average housing debt levels are high by historic standards. 
Shane Garrett is senior economist for HIA and can be contacted <a href="https://hia.com.au/en/BusinessInfo/economicInfo/EcoGroup.aspx" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Dwelling prices and the current state of play: HIA's Shane Garrett

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GUEST OBSERVER
Across the nation home prices are starting to look healthier with the gains more wide spread across the states, rather than being just Sydney or Melbourne based. In fact Sydney prices only lifted by 0.1% while capital city home prices rose by a much more robust 0.9%. Even more encouraging five of the eight capital cities recorded growth.
In fact if you take out the capital cities and look at the “Rest of State” index, home prices lifted by 0.6%. Granted it is still early days for the regional cities with home prices up just 2.8% over the past year, but the signs are more encouraging. We would expect to see the lift in capital city house prices eventually filters out across the regional towns over the next 12-24 months. Strength in home prices across the nation will be more supportive of a lift in activity levels over the medium term.
Sydney house prices are up almost 17 per cent on a year ago with total returns lifting by a staggering 21 per cent over the past year. Although in the Sydney housing market there are signs that price growth will be more circumspect going forward. The tighter lending policies being adopted by the banks, coupled with new housing supply should ensure much more sedate property price growth. 
The manufacturing sector expanded for the third consecutive month. Clearly a function of the lower Australian dollar.
The job market continues to improve with job vacancies at the highest levels in almost three-year highs. With population growth slower than in past years, unemployment has more chance of falling over the coming year.
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What do the figures show?
Home prices
The CoreLogic RP Data Hedonic Australian Home Value index of capital city home prices rose by 0.9 per cent in September to stand 11 per cent higher than a year ago.
House prices rose by 0.9 per cent in September while apartments rose by 0.6 per cent. House prices were up 11.6 per cent on a year ago and apartments were up by 7.3 per cent.
The average Australian capital city house price (median price based on settled sales over quarter) was $613,000 and the average unit price was $515,000. The average Sydney house price was $920,000 – still well short of a $1 million. 
Dwelling prices rose in five of the eight capital cities in September: Melbourne (up 2.4 per cent), Brisbane (up 1.4 per cent), Canberra (up 1.0 per cent), Perth (up 0.5 per cent) and Sydney (up 0.1 per cent). Prices fell in, Hobart (down 1.9 per cent), Adelaide (down 1.2 per cent), and Darwin (down 0.3 per cent).
Home prices were higher than a year ago in four of the eight capital cities. Prices rose most in Sydney (up 16.7 per cent), followed by Melbourne (up 14.2 per cent), Brisbane (up 4.6 per cent), and Canberra (up 0.6 per cent). Price fell in Darwin (down 3.9 per cent), Perth (down 0.9 per cent) Adelaide (down 0.3 per cent), and Hobart (down 0.2 per cent).
Total returns on capital city dwellings in the year to August rose by 14.4 per cent with houses up 14.7 per cent on a year earlier and units up 12.3 per cent.
Job vacancies:
Job vacancies rose by 2.7 per cent to 160,900 in seasonally adjusted terms in the three months to August. It was the highest number of vacancies in almost 3 years (since November 2012).
Over the year vacancies lifted 18.6 per cent in Victoria in original terms over the year but fell 34.2 per cent in Northern Territory and fell by 11.3 per cent Western Australia. Over the past year, job vacancies rose by 15,100 or 10.2 per cent in original terms.
Over the past year, vacancies rose the most in Administrative and Support Services and Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants (both up 5,100). Vacancies fell most in Manufacturing (down 3,300), Mining and Transport and storage (both down 1,000) and Communication services (down 1,000).
Performance of Manufacturing
The Performance of Manufacturing index rose by 0.4 points to 52.1 in September. A reading above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding. Production, orders, exports, sales, and capacity use rose in September but employment, selling prices eased, while wages fell. 
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<div class="column">What is the importance of the economic data?</div>
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The CoreLogic RP Data Hedonic Australian Home Value Index is based on Australia’s biggest property database. Unlike the ABS Index, which excludes terraces, semi-detached homes and apartments, the CoreLogic- RP Data Hedonic Index includes all properties. Home prices are an important driver of wealth and spending. The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases Job Vacancies data each quarter. The data is useful in gauging the strength of the job marketThe Australian Industry Group and PricewaterhouseCoopers compile the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) each month. The Australian PMI is the Australian equivalent of the US ISM manufacturing gauge. The PMI is one of the timeliest economic indicators released in Australia. The PMI is useful not just in showing how the manufacturing sector is performing but in providing some sense about where it is heading. The key ‘forward looking’ components are orders and employment.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The Reserve Bank won’t be lifting or cutting interest rates any time soon. A couple more months of sedate growth in Sydney home prices will be welcomed by policymakers – there is just no fundamental reason to change interest rate settings at present.
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 The ongoing lift in job vacancies is certainly encouraging – supporting household confidence and spending.
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<div class="column">CommSec expects interest rate settings to remain unchanged over 2015 and 2016. </div>
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<div class="column">Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au" target="_blank">CommSec</a></div>
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