Dwelling Values

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Low mortgage rates, a swift economic recovery, which has spurred consumer sentiment, and low listing volumes have catapulted national housing values to new record highs. At the end of March, the CoreLogic national home value index increased a further 2.8%, placing values 5.6% above the previous market peak in October 2017. The combined value of Australian dwellings hit $7.9 trillion dollars over the month, according to CoreLogic. This cements residential property as an extremely large and important asset class.

Comparing current capital city values with previous peaks adds some perspective to the current upswing – particularly in Perth and Darwin, where values remain substantially below their record highs from 2014. It also highlights the very different dynamics across capital cities – such as in the ACT, where dwelling values have hit a new record high every month for 19 months.

The following charts plot the change in capital city dwelling values from previous peaks, and the number of months it has taken for values to surpass the previous peak. The subsequent downturn and recovery trends vary, and are unpacked below.  
 

 

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<h2>Sydney</h2>

Sydney dwelling values took 44 months to reach a new record high value. While values have lifted a relatively high 8.1% since the COVID-induced decline (which bottomed out in September 2020), the total value of the dwelling market is actually only 2.6% higher than the previous peak, which was in July of 2017. 

In 2017, a property price downturn was likely catalysed by changes to lending conditions. Cash rate reductions, along with a relaxation in borrower serviceability assessment rules, spurred the start of a recovery trend through 2019. COVID-19 interrupted this upswing, but a recovery in economic conditions, and increased consumer confidence, has pushed values above the previous peak.  
 

<h2>Melbourne</h2>

Melbourne dwelling values reached a peak in March 2020, after staging a recovery from the earlier 11.1% drop in values between late 2017 and mid-2019. However, the Melbourne housing market was the most impacted of any capital city by COVID-19, due to extended social distancing restrictions through 2020, and a particularly high exposure to overseas migration as a source of housing demand.  Closed borders created a negative shock, with a more significant and direct impact on inner city rental demand. Since bottoming out in October 2020, as stage 4 lockdowns began to ease, Melbourne dwelling values have climbed 0.7% above the pre-COVID high. 

As the value of Melbourne housing nudges over its previous peak, it is worth noting the market has not recovered evenly. House values remain -1.8% below the previous November 2017 high due to a larger correction through the recent downturns. Within different price segments, there is also variation. As of March, the ‘high’ end of the market (measured as the top 25% of values in Melbourne) was still -4.0% below its record high, which was in October 2017. Meanwhile, low and middle tier values have increased beyond their pre-COVID highs by 4.9% and 2.2% respectively, reflecting a smaller decline turn recent downturns, as well as strong demand from first home buyers who typically target properties around the middle-to-lower end of the market.  
 

<h2>Brisbane</h2>

Brisbane dwelling values are sitting 6.5% above the previous peak, which was in April 2020. Market values saw a peak-to-trough decline of -0.9% through COVID-19. The decline lasted just 4 months, before Brisbane dwelling values recovered to a new record high by October 2020.

As with Melbourne, the recovery in the Brisbane market has been varied. While house values climbed 7.6% above the previous peak through March, which was reached in May of 2020, unit values remain -9.4% below the record high value, which was in March 2010.  Brisbane unit values are currently at similar levels as October 2007, reflecting a very affordable entry point to the market.

The weaker conditions across the unit sector are likely due to previously high levels of unit completions keeping values subdued, particularly in the later part of the 2010s. ABS dwelling completion data saw unit completions across Queensland rise 50.4% in the 5 years to September 2020, compared with a 17.4% uplift in house completions. However, strong internal migration flows to south-east Queensland, as well as other tailwinds for housing demand more broadly, has supported 5 consecutive months of growth in Brisbane unit values since November 2020. 
 

<h2>Adelaide</h2>

The Adelaide dwelling market was one of the least affected through COVID-19 in terms of values. Following a -0.2% dip from the previous high in May 2020, values had surpassed the previous peak by September last year. The rate of change in dwelling values jumped to a monthly increase of 1.5% over March 2021, which is the highest monthly growth rate seen across the city since December 2007. Both house and unit values across Adelaide are currently sitting at a record high. Although housing values are reaching new highs each month, relative to the larger capital cities, Adelaide housing values remain low. 
 

<h2>Perth</h2>

The CoreLogic home value index for Perth shows values -15.9% below the record high, which was in June 2014. The peak-to-trough decline, which was induced by the rapid withdrawal of mining investment, employment opportunity and migration, lasted around 67 months. As the market started to recover in mid-2019, COVID-19 created an additional, negative shock, which pushed values down a further -2.2% between April and July of 2020. However, the Perth dwelling market has seen consecutive increases in value for the past 8 months. For the past 5 months, value increases have exceeded 1% a month, which is a strong growth rate and signals the start of what may be a sustained and rapid recovery. This coincides with rising interstate migration levels to Western Australia, and projected increases in already rising mining investment. Hobart

Hobart has seen the second-highest uplift in housing values from the previous peak, at 12.3%. The previous peak in dwelling values was at February 2020, before a brief, COVID-induced decline in total dwelling values of just -0.3%. Hobart dwelling values have seen extraordinarily strong growth, with the annualised capital growth return sitting at 9.4% for a 5 year period (+56.3% over the past five years). ABS building activity data suggests house commencements were 32.8% above the decade average through the September 2020 quarter in Tasmania. Combined with affordability constraints, additional stock should work to ease growth rates across the region in the coming months.  
 

<h2>Darwin</h2>

Darwin dwelling values are the furthest from the previous peak of the capital city markets. A record high was reached across Darwin dwellings in May 2014. Similar to Perth, a decline in the resources related infrastructure sector saw a substantial decline in housing values, with the peak-to-trough fall extending to February 2020, at -32.7%. Since February 2020 however, Darwin dwelling values have increased 16.5% through to March 2021 which is the fastest growth rate amongst the capitals. This leaves values -21.6% below the record high, and shows the Darwin dwelling market firmly in a recovery trend.   
 

<h2>ACT</h2>

ACT dwelling values at the end of March were 16.9% higher than the previous peak, which was in April 2019. Following a -1.5% peak-to-trough decline, ACT dwelling values had recovered by September 2019, and have hit a new record high each month since. Rapid dwelling value growth across the capital has largely been driven by house values, which are 19.7% above the previous high in April 2019, compared with a 7.2% uplift in unit values since the previous high. Part of the strength in ACT dwelling value returns have been due to relatively high incomes across the Territory, along with resilient labour market performance through COVID-19. However, the fact that dwelling values have surged almost 17% in less than two years, highlights an increasing barrier to ownership for future first home buyer cohorts. 

 

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The combined value of Australian dwellings hit $7.9 trillion dollars over the month, according to CoreLogic, cementing residential property as an extremely important asset class

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How do dwelling values compare with previous highs? Eliza Owen

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After a stronger than expected housing turnaround, NAB are now forecasting dwelling values to rise by an average of eight per cent nationally across 2021, with a view that 2022 will also see strong gains.

The revision comes after the turnaround in the housing markets, pared with low interest rates, the government's HomeBuilder grants and stamp duty concessions on newly built properties.

"The housing market has fared significantly better than expected over the past year, despite significant headwinds from slower population growth and a weaker labour market," the NAB report read.

"Lower interest rates and household income support from the Federal Government have been a key support amidst the challenges of the pandemic.

"While the impact of lower rates is broad-based, there are some key dynamics underlying our forecast."

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NAB expect the smaller capitals to continue to outpace Sydney and Melbourne, but the two biggest capital city markets have closed the gap from NAB's previous forecasts.

In the Q2 update in mid-2019, NAB were forecasting a -4.3 per cent average decline across the country, with Melbourne (-7.3 per cent) and Sydney (-4.7 per cent), driving the losses.

In Q3, following a positive response to COVID-19, NAB flipped their forecast, predicting five per cent gains nationally over 2021 and Melbourne (+3.6 per cent) and Sydney (+4.4 per cent), going full circle.

Now NAB expect nearly eight per cent gains average, with Sydney and Melbourne not far behind other capital city markets.

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They expect the best performer to be Brisbane, where there are 10.1 per cent gains forecast for 2021 and 6.3 per cent for 2022.

Adelaide and Hobart are predicted to see the strongest gains over 2022, up 7.4 per cent after 8.9 per cent and 9.7 per cent gains over 2021.

Sentiment has been on the turn for a number of months and the NAB Residential Property Index ended 2020 at a survey high +45 points. Confidence levels returned to levels last seen before COVID in late-2019 as expectations lifted sharply for house price growth across the country.

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NAB economist Alan Astor says first home buyer demand remains very strong in new and established housing markets and is likely being supported by historically low interest rates and government support such as the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme and HomeBuilder.

"The brief pullback in house prices earlier in the year may have also helped sentiment among these buyers."
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The revision comes after a stronger than expected housing market, pared with the low interest rates, the government's HomeBuilder grants and stamp duty concessions on new properties.



Joel Robinson

NAB raises dwelling price forecast for 2021 and 2022

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<h2 class="mt0">According to the CoreLogic RP Data Home Value Index, dwelling values were absolutely flat across the combined capitals during December, with negative movements in Sydney, Adelaide and Canberra being offset by a rise in dwelling values across the remaining five capital cities.</h2>
The Sydney housing market was the main drag on the December results, with dwelling values down 1.2%, while values were down 1.5% in Adelaide and 1.1% in Canberra. The remaining capitals saw a rise in dwelling values, led by a 2.3% bounce in Perth values and a 1.0% rise in Melbourne values over the month.
<h2 class="mt0">Index results as at December 31, 2015</h2>
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After dwelling values had been broadly rising since June 2012, the December quarter results revealed a 1.4% fall in dwelling values across the combined capitals, the largest quarter on quarter fall since December 2011.
Six of the eight capital cities recorded a negative result over the December quarter, with weaker conditions in Sydney and Melbourne acting as the greatest drag on capital city performance. 
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The largest quarterly fall was recorded in Sydney, where dwelling values were down 2.3% over the final three months of the year, followed by Melbourne, where dwelling values were 1.9% lower. The only capital cities to show a rise in dwelling values over the December quarter were Brisbane (+1.3%) and Adelaide (+0.6%).
This was in contrast to the first three quarters of 2015, where capital city dwelling values rose by 9.3%, largely driven by a 14.1% surge in Sydney values and a 13.3% increase in Melbourne. 
In stark contrast, the final quarter of 2015 showed Sydney as the weakest performer of any capital city, with dwelling values down by -2.3% while Melbourne recorded the second weakest result of -1.9%.
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The complete 2015 calendar year results reveal a 7.8% increase in capital city dwelling values which is the lowest rate of capital gain over a calendar year since 2012 when values slipped 0.4% lower over the full year.
Highlighting the diversity in the capital city housing markets, dwelling values fell across four of the eight capitals in the 2015 calendar year. The largest of these falls were recorded in Perth, down by 3.7%, and Darwin down by 3.6%. Hobart and Adelaide also showed subtle falls of 0.7% and 0.1%. 
Despite the recent weakening of housing market conditions in Sydney and Melbourne, the two largest capital city housing markets still recorded much stronger annual gains than all other capital cities,  11.5% in Sydney and 11.2% in Melbourne. Dwelling values in Brisbane and Canberra were up a more sustainable 4.1% over the year.
The wealth created from housing in Sydney and Melbourne has been exceptional over the past twelve months.
In dollar terms, Sydney home owners have seen approximately $82,000 added to their wealth thanks to the strong capital gains over the year while home owners in Melbourne have seen the value of their dwelling grow by approximately $60,400. Brisbane home owners are $18,560 better off while Canberra owners have seen the value of their homes increase by approximately $21,900.
Home owners in the remaining capital cities have seen some erosion of their wealth via falls in the value of their dwelling. The largest losses have occurred in Perth where the average dwelling is now worth approximately $19,970 less than it was 12 months ago, while Darwin home owners have seen the value of their home shrink by a similar $18,150.
The annual decline has been milder in Adelaide and Hobart, however dwelling values are still $515 lower in Adelaide over the year and down $2,430 in Hobart.
The slowdown in housing market conditions across Sydney and Melbourne in the last half of 2015 is being driven by a range of factors that can best be described as both organic and externally influenced.
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Organic market conditions have been derived from affordability pressures, rental yield compression and cyclical factors, while factors from external influences largely stem from a change in the regulatory framework introduced by APRA which has made it more expensive and difficult for investors to access housing finance. Added to this is higher mortgage rates and more restrictive credit policies and loan servicing requirements.
 
Tim Lawless is head of the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team and can be contacted <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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tlawless-5VLUrbAk9s

Capital gains stall in the final month of the year: Tim Lawless

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Enter housing price growth into the topic although make sure if you want to be right that you always select the plural.
For example, those in the real estate industry always focus on suburban or post code housing price growth. What we are reading now are housing price growth predictions of significant drops for Sydney and Melbourne which just so happen to be Australia’s largest and most active markets.
Allow me to put this into perspective given most have failed miserably in educating readers as to what exactly this means. Let’s say for the sake of this argument you own a house in Mosman – in six months’ time the value of your home will in all probability have gone up due to record low stock levels. However, if you had recently acquired an investment off – the – plan apartment, in six months’ time that would have definitely dropped well below the purchase price.
Recently we learnt that the Australian banks are no longer lending to foreign buyers and many areas across Sydney have now been black listed from obtaining any loans due to a significant oversupply of property. We need to bear in mind that whenever we see major price adjustments to real estate this can only happen when you have an acute oversupply.
The final nail in the housing investment market was delivered this week in the NSW budget when stamp duty payable by foreign buyers would be hit with a new four (4) per cent surcharge. On top of that they will also be hit with an additional 0.75 per cent land tax surcharge on residential real estate. If ever these tens of thousands of foreign buyers needed a reason to walk away from their deposits they certainly have one now.
To add further confusion to this potential housing catastrophe nobody can answer does this surcharge apply to those investors who have already paid their deposit and are yet to pay stamp duty? If history is anything to go by then you would say confidently that it does. The major lenders would be hoping that it does as they would be hoping that many of their new lending clients walk away from their deposits as that significantly reduces their exposure. Although this can be a double whammy if they are also funding the developer – so this is the double – edged property sword.
We should also clean up some incorrect speculation from commentators that this new surcharge will have a significant effect on home prices too. Well it won’t because these foreign buyers can only buy off – the – plan so it won’t play any part in the established housing markets.
One would have to say that the new surcharges will be a total failure although it is disappointing that the NSW government did absolutely no due diligence with what the long term effect would be on the housing markets other than to drive the investment real estate markets values down. The tax that should have been brought down was a tax against those investors who land bank because they would make plenty from that given a large percentage of foreign buyers leave these properties vacant.
The NSW government would be very concerned that stamp duty received from the established property markets is in significant decline although there is no mention of that as all the revenue has arrived thanks to a robust investment market, hence the new surcharge. Should the new surcharge tax turn out to be a dismal failure which I believe it will then the NSW government will be forced into hopefully a complete review of property taxes.
Everyone in the real estate industry knows full well that the reason for record low stock levels is entirely due to home owners baulking at paying exhorbitant stamp duty, so instead they are renovating. One day the NSW government will explore a broad based land tax paid annually by home owners as a logical replacement to stamp duty with Australian residents receiving a discounted rate.
One would think by now that policies on the run are usually always met with disaster where the last example was the failed and now abolished mining tax.
MOSMAN – 2088
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 55
Number of houses on the market last week – 51
Number of houses on the market this week – 48
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 66
Number of apartments on the market last week – 41
Number of apartments on the market this week – 41
CREMORNE – 2090 
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 13
Number of houses on the market last week – 10
Number of houses on the market this week – 13
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 11
Number of apartments on the market last week – 18
Number of apartments on the market this week – 18
NEUTRAL BAY – 2089 
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 3
Number of houses on the market last week – 8
Number of houses on the market this week – 7
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 29
Number of apartments on the market last week – 19
Number of apartments on the market this week – 19
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000.
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Home truths needed on housing debate: Robert Simeon

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December 2016 saw capital city dwelling values rise by 1.4%, taking the annual capital gain for 2016 to 10.9%; the highest growth rate for a calendar year since 2009.
Factoring in gross rental yields and capital gains, housing as an asset class, earned a total annual return of 14.7% based on the combined capital cities index results.
Across Australia’s capital cities, the annual change in dwelling values for 2016 ranged from -4.3% in Perth to 15.5% in Sydney, with Melbourne and Hobart also showing annual capital gains higher than 10%.
Capital city growth rates have also shown a growing divergence between the broad housing product types.
Over the past twelve months we have seen capital city house values rise by 11.6%, while unit values have increased by roughly half the pace at 5.9%.
The divergence in growth rates is the most distinct in Melbourne and Brisbane, where concerns around unit oversupply have eroded buyer confidence.
Melbourne house values are up 15.1% over the year compared with a 1.7% rise in unit values, while Brisbane house values are 4.0% higher over the year, with unit values falling by -0.2%.
Australia’s regional housing markets generally did not experience the same growth conditions as the capital cities, with annual growth to November recorded at 2.8% across the combined regional markets. Regional New South Wales showed the strongest growth conditions, with non-capital city house values rising 7.3% over the 12 month period to November 2016.
The remaining rest-of-state regions showed relatively sedate conditions, with values rising by half a per cent across regional Victoria, 1% across regional Queensland and 1.1% across regional South Australia. Regional Western Australia recorded a 7% fall in house values over the year. Those regional areas with intrinsic ties to the mining and resources sector have continued to record weaker housing market conditions since the end of the mining infrastructure boom, with Perth and Darwin recording the weakest housing market conditions across the capital cities.
Since values peaked in these markets during 2014, values have fallen by a cumulative 7.9% in Perth and 5.9% in Darwin.
More recently both these markets have shown signs of moving through the low point of their respective downturns, with values rising by 2.8% and 5.9% respectively over the final quarter of 2016.
Based on the annual housing market results, it is clear that housing markets across Australia have responded to regional differences in economic and demographic trends; strong population growth and economic activity have driven value growth in Sydney and Melbourne, however, more recently strong growth trends have spread to Hobart and Canberra, as well as many of the coastal and lifestyle markets where values are now also rising swiftly.
Post Global Financial Crisis, the CoreLogic index results show that Sydney’s dwelling values have almost doubled, rising by 97.5% since January 2009, whilst Melbourne dwelling values have increased by 83.5% over the same time frame.
Every other capital city has seen dwelling values rise at substantially lower rates over this period, highlighting just how strong the Sydney and Melbourne housing market conditions have been over the past eight years.
Sydney-siders saw dwelling values increase by approximately $10,000 per month over the past year, creating a significant boost in wealth for home owners; at the same time we’ve seen mounting affordability challenges for aspiring home owners.
The recent CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report shows Sydney dwelling prices were 8.3 times higher than annual household incomes and households were dedicating an average of 44.5% of their income to service a mortgage (based on an 80% loan to valuation ratio and the average discounted variable mortgage rate).
Tim Lawless heads up the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team, analysing real estate markets, demographics and economic trends across Australia.
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2016 dwelling value growth rates divergent even within the same capital city: Corelogic's Tim Lawless

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CoreLogic undertook analysis of the recent March 2018 quarter consumer price index (CPI) data which confirmed that in inflation adjusted terms, dwelling values are now lower in most capital cities.
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(Note: consumer price index (CPI), which measures inflation, increased by 0.4% over the March 2018 quarter to be 1.9% higher year-on-year. With the release of this data, it is also possible to look at inflation-adjusted or real changes in dwelling values across the capital cities. When looking at these figures, the inflation adjustment means that value growth is lower).
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The results showed that national dwelling values fell by -1.0% and were -0.7% lower over the past 12 months, however, Hobart was the only capital city where real values increased over the quarter (+3.0%) with Sydney recording the largest quarterly fall (-2.2%).
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Over the past twelve months, only Melbourne (+3.4%), Hobart (+10.9%) and Canberra (+1.0%) have seen dwelling values outpace inflation. The largest decline over the year was recorded in Darwin (-9.3%) followed by Perth (-4.3%) and Sydney (-4.0%).
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Over the past decade, only Sydney (+43.3%) Melbourne (+38.7%) and Hobart (+6.4%) have recorded ‘real’ growth in dwelling values.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/26/corelogic%20expert%20obs%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge
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These latest figures really highlight just how narrow value growth has been in the national housing market over the past decade. It also highlights that low mortgage rates alone have not been the key driver of value growth - mortgage rates are the same in Sydney as they are in Perth yet the former has recorded real growth of 43.3% while the latter has seen values fall by -25.0%.
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With dwelling values dropping over recent months, all capital cities, except Hobart, now have real values which sit below their previous peak. Nationally, values are -2.0% lower than their June 2017 peak and across the combined capital cities values are a slightly greater -2.5% lower. Let’s take a look at how dwellingvalues have tracked in inflation adjusted terms across each capital city.
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Sydney – values are 5.3% lower than their June 2017 peak.
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Melbourne – after peaking in December 2017, values are currently -0.9% lower.
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Brisbane – values peaked back in March 2008 and are currently - 12.5% lower.
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Adelaide – values currently sit -7.4% below their June 2010 peak.
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Perth – the city has seen values fall by -28.5% from their peak in December 2006. dwelling values.”
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Hobart – with values increasing a further 10.9% over the past year, it is the only city where real dwelling values are currently at their peak.
Darwin – real dwelling values peaked in March 2013 and have since fallen by -28.2%.
Canberra – dwelling values are -6.8% lower than their June 2010 peak.
Although the rate of inflation is quite slow and remains below the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2% to 3% annually, value growth is now broadly slower and is expected to remain that way over the coming quarters.
As a result, when looking at inflation-adjusted dwelling values the expectation is that they will continue to fall over the coming quarters which means that as the cost of other items increase and inflation rises, relatively speaking, the cost of housing will reduce. We’ve seen this result occurring in most capital cities for a number of years but is a relatively recent development in Sydney and Melbourne.”
The flow-on effect of value falls remains to be seen, however, it may result in less expenditure elsewhere across the economy, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne which have had strong retail demand over recent years due to the wealth-effect of increasing dwelling values.”
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CAMERON KUSHER is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Hobart the only capital city where real dwelling values sit at their peak

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GUEST OBSERVER
The cost of housing continued to rise across most parts of the country over the past 12 months.
Bracket creep should come as no surprise in markets like Sydney and Melbourne where dwelling values have increased by 77% and 61% respectively over the past five years.
While Sydney and Melbourne dominated as the two capitals with the highest proportion of sales at at least $1 million, most other capital cities and regional areas also enjoyed a proportional lift in home sales over the million dollar mark.
The CoreLogic analysis confirmed that over the 12 months to June 2017, 15.4% of all house sales and 8.8% of all unit sales nationally were at a price of at least $1 million. By comparison, 12 months earlier 14.4% of all house sales and 7.5% of all unit sales were at least $1 million in value.
The latest data shows that instances of dwellings selling for at least $1 million is much more prevalent across the combined capital cities. Over the 12 months to June 2017, 23.2% of all houses and 10.8% of all units sold in capital cities were sold for at least $1 million. The proportion of sales of at least $1 million has increased over the year from 21.5% of houses and 9.1% of units.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/10/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-10%20at%2011.38.10%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/10/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-10%20at%2011.38.10%20AM.png" alt="">
While regional housing markets generally have lower housing costs than capital cities, the proportion of sales occurring for at least $1 million is also increasing in these areas. Across the combined regional areas the proportion of houses selling for at least $1 million has increased from 3.5% in June 2016 to 4.1% in June 2017. Meanwhile, the proportion of units selling for at least $1 million has increased to 3.5% of all sales in June 2017, up from 3.2% a year earlier.
Delving into the individual capital cities, and not surprising, Sydney and Melbourne have had substantially more properties sell for at least $1 million over the past year than any other capital cities.
Over the past year, 47.8% of all houses and 21.3% of all units sold in Sydney transacted for at least $1 million. By comparison, 10 years earlier just 13.8% of houses and 4.7% of units transacted from at least $1 million over the year.
In Melbourne, more than a quarter (25.9%) of house sales and 7.4% of unit sales were at least $1 million in value. By comparison, ten years earlier 5.8% of house sales and 2.7% of unit sales over the year were at least $1 million.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/10/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-10%20at%2011.39.09%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/10/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-10%20at%2011.39.09%20AM.png" alt="">
In all of the other capital cities the proportion of houses selling for at least $1 million is higher than it was a decade ago. More than 10% of house sales over the past year in Perth and Canberra were at least $1 million in value. Perth is also the only city to have recorded a lower proportion of unit sales of at least $1 million over the 12 months to June 2017 compared to a decade earlier.
With dwelling values continuing to climb, we anticipate that in another 12 months we’ll see an even higher proportion of sales sitting at or above $1 million.
The flip-side to this is that the ongoing increase in the proportion of residential properties selling in excess of $1 million highlights the ongoing deterioration in the availability of housing affordability.
Although the Federal Government attempted to address housing affordability in the Budget this year, it is clear that in order to improve housing affordability there is much more work to be done on both supply and demand drivers of the market.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Million dollar sales reach record levels: Cameron Kusher

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Although values have been increasing for almost 4.5 years, homes continue to sell quite rapidly with a relatively low level of discounting occurring from vendors.
The vendor discount and time on market metrics are important measures of current market conditions. The vendor discounting metric looks at properties selling for less than their original list price and looks at the percentage difference from initial list price to ultimate sale price. 
The time on market metric shows the average number of days between when a property is first listed and when it ultimately sells. It’s important to note that each of these measures is based on private treaty sales and therefore excludes auctions.
In September 2016, the average days on market across the combined capital cities was recorded at 39 days. At the same time a year earlier the average days on market was a slightly lower 36 days. 
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<h3>Average days on market, combined capital cities</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--pp-image1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--pp-image1.png" alt="">
The second chart highlights the average days on market figure across each of the capital cities for each of the past 8 years in September. Over recent years homes have been selling much quicker in Sydney and Melbourne than they have across the other capital cities. Homes in Hobart and Canberra have seen fairly large falls in days on market over the past year which aligns with accelerating value growth. In Perth and Darwin homes have seen a large rise in the average days on market as selling conditions have become tougher and values have declined.
<h3>Average days on market, individual capital cities as at September </h3>
<a href="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--image2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--image2.png" alt="">
In September 2016, the typical home which sold at a discount from its original listing price was discounted by -5.7 percent across the combined capital cities. In comparison, at the same time a year earlier the typical level of discounting was recorded at -6.0 percent. The lower level of discounting is reflective of more demand and fewer homes for sale but is also likely to reflect more realistic initial listing prices from vendors.
<h3>Average vendor discount, combined capital cities</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--pp-image3.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--pp-image3.png" alt="">
The final chart shows the discounting levels for each capital city in September over each of the past 8 years. Once again Sydney and Melbourne, along with Canberra, have been seeing low levels of discounting by vendors over recent years. In Sydney and Melbourne in particular this is indicative of strong housing demand which has led to many homes selling in excess of their initial list price. Despite only moderate growth in values over recent years Canberra has consistently recorded low levels of discounting. In Perth and Darwin as the housing market has wakened over recent years discounting levels have increased significantly.
<h3>Average vendor discount, individual capital cities as at September</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--image4.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--image4.png" alt="">
After combined capital city home values have been increasing for almost four and a half years (mainly in Sydney and Melbourne) the level of discounting and time on market remains extremely low. This is being driven by ongoing strong housing demand coupled with relatively low stock levels.  While these conditions persist it is difficult to see how home values in Sydney and Melbourne in particular, won’t continue to increase.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Homes are selling much quicker in Sydney and Melbourne: Cameron Kusher

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The housing market appears to be responding to a number of factors which have spurred further growth in home values. 
Official interest rates are at historic low levels which has encouraged borrowing for housing and driven housing debt to record-high levels. 
The low interest rate setting is also seeing significant competition amongst lenders which has resulted in substantial discounts to headline mortgage rates. 
Furthermore, while the total number of homes available for sale is similar to levels a year ago, there has been significantly fewer newly advertised properties listed for sale over the past few months relative to previous years. 
The low number of newly advertised dwellings available for sale has created a sense of urgency for buyers in the market, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, and resulted in further increases in home values over this growth cycle which has been running for more than four years.
While the banking regulator has implemented policies aimed at slowing investment related credit demand, his has not resulted in a significant cooling in the housing market. The pace of investment related credit growth has slowed from a peak of nearly 11 percent per annum to 5 percent over the most rent 12 months period, however we are now seeing an uplift in lending to investors once more. 
Following the most recent interest rate cut, auction clearance rates have elevated to levels not seen for more than a year, particularly in Sydney, the nation’s least affordable housing market.
Interest rates
On August 2, the Reserve Bank (RBA) decided to cut official interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.5 percent. 
While interest rates were lowered to historic lows, headline variable mortgage rates were generally reduced by much less, with each of the Big 4 banks lowering their mortgage rates by no more than 14 basis points. 
Despite the fact that the interest rate cuts were not passed on in full to mortgage holders, mortgage rates below 4 percent are available for those who wish to move from their current lender.  With most mortgages on a variable rate, any cut to mortgage rates will improve a household’s disposable income.  Furthermore, it has become clear that it will also give them more confidence to increasingly purchase more expensive homes, well in Sydney and Melbourne at least.
Housing debt
Each quarter the RBA publishes ratios of household finances which include the ratio of household debt to disposable income. The latest data to March 2016 shows that the typical level of housing debt is 134.7 percent higher than household disposable income. 
The current ratio is a record-high but it is important to remember that it is a national snapshot and conditions across different housing markets are likely to vary substantially.  Since the current phase of growth in home values commenced in the June 2012 quarter, this ratio has lifted from 119.0 percent.
While the ratio of housing debt to disposable income has increased and is at a record-high, the ratio of housing assets to disposable income has also risen as home values have increased. 
In the June 2012 quarter, the typical value of household assets was 394.4 percent higher than household disposable income.  
By March 2016, the ratio had increased to 470.8 percent indicating a significant increase in the value housing assets.  Again, it should be remembered that this is a national measure and local market ratios are likely to be vastly different especially within areas of very little value growth over that time as well as those areas in which home values have fallen.
Properties listed for sale
Over the four weeks ending August 21 2016 there were 39,676 new (not previously advertised for at least six months) residential properties listed for sale and 229,386 total (includes new and relisted properties) properties advertised for sale. 
The number of newly advertised properties listed for sale was -3.4 percent lower than at the same time last year and new listings have been lower each week year-on-year since early June 2016.  Meanwhile, total listings are -0.9 percent lower than they were a year ago and on a weekly basis have been consistently lower year-on-year since early July of this year.  New and total listings are now starting to increase as we head closer to the beginning of the Spring Selling Season as they do each year.
While the national figures show fewer listings than a year ago, the trends are very different across individual capital cities, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne where home value growth conditions are strongest.
In Sydney, over the past four weeks there were 6,299 newly advertised and 18,951 total properties advertised for sale. Year-on-year, new listings have now been lower than they were the previous year fairly consistently since last November and are currently -20.6 percent lower than they were a year ago. 
Over the past four weeks there were 17,949 total listings in Sydney which was 0.8% higher than a year ago. 
While total listings are slightly higher than a year ago, there is very little new stock being listed for sale.  New listings are arguably more important than relisted properties, especially if the relisted stock has been for sale for a long period of time and vendors aren’t adjusting their price expectations.   Even though spring is just around the corner, there is very little fresh stock being added to the market.
It is a similar story in Melbourne where there were 7,177 new and 25,846 total residential properties listed for sale over the four weeks to 21 August 2016.  The number of new listings was -9.4 percent lower year-on-year and total listings were -0.8 percent lower.  Again, with spring just around the corner there is a relatively low supply of newly advertised properties hitting the market for sale.
Mortgage demand
One of the big challenges the RBA has is the quality and regularity of mortgage data collection. While housing finance data is published each month, owner occupier housing finance commitments are published both on a number and value basis while investor housing finance commitments are only published on the basis of value not the number of loans. 
With the investment segment having become so prevalent, it is a challenge not knowing both the number and value, particularly when investment is so strong in Sydney and Melbourne at a time when home value growth is also so strong. 
Adding to the challenge of interpreting housing finance data is the lack of clarity about how off-the-plan unit purchases are captured in the data.  It is unclear as to whether they are classified as construction of dwellings or purchase of new dwellings. Finally re-classification of large swathes of mortgages from lenders away from investment and toward owner occupiers has made reading the market even more difficult.
The latest housing finance data showed that in June 2016 there was $32.6 billion worth of commitments with the value having increased by 2.3 percent over the month following a 1.8 percent rise in May. 
Although mortgage lending is rising, it remains -2.1 percent lower than its peak in April of last year. 
Over the month, there was $20.8 billion in commitments to owner occupiers and $11.8 billion in commitments to investors.  Both segments of lending rose over the month however, owner occupier lending is -2.4 percent lower than its December 2015 peak while investment lending is -22.0 percent lower than its April 2015 peak.
Owner occupier lending remains quite strong and although investment lending has slowed significantly, there is now scope for it to increase over the coming months.  Without additional details on the number of investment loans it is difficult to know whether the increase is being driven by larger loan sizes, a larger number of loans or a combination of both.
Auction clearance rates
Auction clearance rates are one of the timeliest indicators of the housing market and they tend to be indicative of the broader housing market trends.  It is important to remember that far more homes sell by private sale than by auction and auctions are only a significant proportion of sales in the Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra housing markets.
Auction clearance rates in Sydney last week were at their highest levels in more than a year.  Sydney’s auction clearance rate has been above 70 percent for 18 consecutive weeks and in Melbourne they have been above 70 percent for 7 consecutive weeks.
As already discussed, the supply of homes available for sale, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, is much lower than it has been over recent years.  This is particularly evident when looking at auction volumes. 
Over 2016 so far there have been 18,619 auctions in Sydney compared to 25,399 auctions at the same point in 2015.  This represents a -26.7 percent decline in the number of auctions in Sydney over the year to-date. 
In Melbourne there have been 23,779 auctions so far this year which is -9.5 percent lower than the 26,282 auctions to the same point last year.  The low volume of auction stock is likely to be resulting in the ongoing strength in clearance rates across each city.  Less stock for sale creates a sense of urgency for those looking to purchase.
So what does this mean for Spring?
It is too early to say definitively what will happen this Spring but I would be very comfortable stating that what happens with property listings will have a substantial influence on the market’s performance over the period. 
Spring is typically characterised by a fairly significant upswing in stock for sale, this is driven by the belief that Spring is the best time of year to sell (that is a topic for another day).  As supply increases, the value growth performance can slow and as we saw last year, auction clearance rates can actually start to dip.  So the amount of stock which becomes available for sale will be an important factor for the strength of the Sydney housing market.
The recent interest rate cut is another important consideration for the market’s performance. Although mortgages and the availability of them, is calculated on the borrower’s ability to repay the mortgage at a much higher interest rate, lower mortgage rates impact households by giving them the option to reduce mortgage repayments and therefore having more money each week in their pocket. 
This is because most mortgages are on a variable rate and changes to the interest rate on their largest commitment (the mortgage) have an immediate impact on household balance sheets. 
With the recent cut to interest rates, it is unlikely to mean that people that could not previously borrow now can, but it does mean that households that previously weren’t considering moving home or buying an investment property may now be more inclined to do so. 
This may result in more confidence from those looking to upgrade their property to list their home which means that they also become an additional purchaser.  If someone is now starting to consider buying an investment property it also means additional demand for housing. 
How many new buyers there are in Spring remains to be seen but it may encourage an increase in demand for purchase and could result in more people looking to sell their home.
The other major consideration, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, but also across the rest of the country is what the prospects are for additional increases in home values over the short and medium term. 
Combined capital city home values have been rising for more than four years now however, this has largely been driven by Sydney and Melbourne due to their much stronger economies. While the economies in these cities remain strong, the increasing cost of housing due to the four plus years of value growth may be starting to deter buyers.
When you also consider that rents are increasing at record low levels (falling in some areas) and gross rental yields are at record lows, purchasing a property, particularly an investment, is looking less attractive than it has for some time.  Especially when you also factor in the heightened level of housing construction, most of which is inner city units, which is currently underway.
It is going to be interesting to see how all of these factors play out over the next few months and ultimately how the housing market performs.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Where to for the housing market in Spring? Cameron Kusher

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GUEST OBSERVER
A retrospective look at median dwelling values across the suburbs of Australia shows the bracket creep that has occurred over the current growth cycle, highlighting the deterioration of more affordable housing across the capital cities over the past five years.
At the end of 2016, 7.6 percent of suburbs nationally had a median house value under $200,000 and 5.9 percent of suburbs had a median unit value below $200,000. 
To put these figures into some perspective, 11.4 percent of suburbs had a median house value of at least $1 million and 3.0 percent of suburbs had a median unit value of at least $1 million.
Over the five years to the end of 2016, there has been a substantial decline in the proportion of suburbs with a median value below $400,000. 
At the end of 2011, 53.5 percent of suburbs had a median house value of less than $400,000 and 69.8 percent of suburbs had a median unit value of less than $400,000. 
By the end of 2016, the proportion of suburbs with a median value of less than $400,000 had fallen to 41.0 percent for houses and 55.3 percent for units.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/20/Corelogic-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/20/Corelogic-1.jpg" alt="">
A five year retrospective look at the individual capital cities highlights the significant shift in the proportion of suburbs with a median value under $400,000, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.
In 2011, the proportion of total suburbs with a median house value below $400,000 across each capital city was: 21.2 percent in Sydney, 28.9 percent in Melbourne, 40.9 percent in Brisbane, 40.5 percent in Adelaide, 31.1 percent in Perth, 69.2 percent in Hobart, 2.1 percent in Darwin and 1.1 percent in Canberra. 
Units offer a more affordable option highlighted by the proportions of suburbs values below $400,000 at: 38.8 percent in Sydney, 48.2 percent in Melbourne, 81.7 percent in Brisbane, 94.3 percent in Adelaide, 59.8 percent in Perth, 92.7 percent in Hobart, 53.3 percent in Darwin and 44.6 percent in Canberra.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/20/Corelogic-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/20/Corelogic-2.jpg" alt="">
By 2015, the proportion of suburbs with a median house value below $400,000 had shifted to: 1.2% in Sydney, 12.2% for Melbourne, 31.4% in Brisbane, 29.5% in Adelaide, 15.5% in Perth, 55.7% in Hobart and 0.0% in both Darwin and Canberra. 
For units, the proportion of suburbs with a median value of less than $400,000 in December 2015 were recorded at: 10.9% in Sydney, 34.9% in Melbourne, 64.4% in Brisbane, 87.7% in Adelaide, 37.2% in Perth, 88.4% in Hobart, 51.4% in Darwin and 50.5% in Canberra.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/20/Corelogic-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/20/Corelogic-3.jpg" alt="">
The proportion of suburbs with a median house value of less than $400,000 at the end of 2016 was recorded at: 0.1% in Sydney, 6.3% in Melbourne, 29.2% in Brisbane, 28.0% in Adelaide, 18.9% in Perth, 52.1% in Hobart and 0.0% in Darwin and Canberra. 
For units the proportions were recorded at: 6.5% in Sydney, 31.8% in Melbourne, 62.7% in Brisbane, 85.1% in Adelaide, 46.4% in Perth, 88.4% in Hobart, 57.6% in Darwin and 45.8% in Canberra.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/20/Corelogic-4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/20/Corelogic-4.jpg" alt="">
Five years ago every capital city except for Darwin and Canberra had at least 20% of suburbs with a median house value of less than $400,000. 
At the end of last year, it was virtually impossible to find houses for less than $400,000 in Sydney, Darwin and Canberra while less than 7% of suburbs had a median house value below $400,000 in Melbourne. 
Across each city there has been a substantial decline in more affordable housing over the past year despite the fact that outside of Sydney and Melbourne there has been only moderate value growth over the period.
Even units have recorded a fairly substantial decline in the proportion of suburbs with a median value of less than $400,000 over the past five years.
At the end of 2016, looking at both houses and units, 20.5% of Sydney suburbs had a median value of less than $600,000 compared to 38.5% of suburbs having a median value of at least $1 million. 
To further highlight deteriorating housing affordability in Sydney, 34.6% of suburbs had a median unit value of less than $600,000 at the end of 2016. 
In each other capital city, a higher proportion of suburbs had a median house value of less than $600,000 than the proportion of suburbs with a median unit value of less than $600,000.
If you are earning a relatively low income in Sydney and are looking to buy a house or unit, you are competing for a rapidly declining pool of housing stock across the city. 
The pool is also declining across the remaining capitals, albeit not at the same pace of decline as in Sydney.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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