Dwelling Prices

<h2>EXPERT INSIGHT</h2>

Australian capital city average dwelling prices rose 1.8% in April according to CoreLogic and are up 6.4% on a year ago.

This is their seventh monthly gain in a row.

While down from the break neck pace of 2.8% seen in April, price growth is still strong and average capital city prices are now 5.4% above their September 2017 record high.

All capital cities saw prices rise solidly in April with Darwin the strongest at +2.7%, followed by Sydney at +2.4% and Adelaide at +2%. See the table below.

All capital city prices are at record levels except for Perth and Darwin which are recovering from 22% and 33% falls respectively between 2014 and 2020, which was in the aftermath of the mining investment boom.

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Regional dwelling prices rose 1.9% in April and are up 13% on a year ago with their relative strength over the last year reflecting lower levels of indebtedness and hence less vulnerability to the financial stresses caused by the pandemic driven economic downturn, less exposure to the slump in immigration and increased buyer interest as people seek to relocate from cities as part of a secular trend towards working from home and a greater focus on lifestyle.

Capital city house prices rose 2% in April and 8% over the last 12 months whereas unit prices lagged with a 1.2% gain in the month and a 1.8% rise on a year ago, with the relative underperformance reflecting a shift in preferences towards houses as a result of more working from home and a lifestyle choice and as weak rental conditions made worse by the slump in immigration constrained the inner city unit markets in Sydney and Melbourne. However, the Sydney and&nbsp;

Melbourne unit rental markets have shown signs of stabilisation and improvement in recent months and this appears to be helping unit prices, although they are still lagging.

The slowdown in price growth compared to March was inevitable given that the 2.8% average gain that month was the strongest since October 1988 and was always going to be hard to beat. Moreover, the moderation is also consistent with some pick up in new listings which has seen auction clearances slow a bit from March, some easing in the impact of government incentives and perhaps some of the initial boost from four year fixed mortgage rates below 2% having run its course.

However, average home gains of 1.8% a month are still very strong, housing finance commitments remain around record highs suggesting more demand to come and auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne remain very high and at levels consistent with strong home price growth. While first home buyers led the initial recovery, spurred on by various incentives, housing finance data suggests that first home buyer demand may now have peaked but that investors are now jumping in to take over from first home buyers and that demand from owner occupiers generally remains very strong.

The fundamentals of still ultra-low mortgage rates, ongoing government incentives, economic recovery, the strong jobs market and an element of FOMO (buying now for fear of missing out) point to further home price increases ahead. We expect average home prices to rise another 10 to 15% out to the end of 2022, but this to mask a slowing from 15% this year(of which they have already done 7.5%) to 5% next year. 2023 could start to see another cyclical downturn in property prices as the interest rate cycle starts to move up more decisively.

There are six reasons to expect a gradual slowing in the pace of capital city dwelling gains going forwards:

First, government housing incentives are likely to be wound back a bit. The First Home Loan Deposit scheme is likely to see home price thresholds increased in the Budget, but HomeBuilder has now ended and some states may start to wind back various incentives.

Second, poor affordability is starting to become an increasing constraint again and is likely already starting to weigh on first home buyer demand going by housing finance data.

Third, the RBA and APRA are expected to reach yet again for macro prudential controls to slow housing lending sometime in the next six months. While they don&rsquo;t target house prices and are of the view that we have not yet seen a significant&nbsp;deterioration in lending standards, past experience indicates that surging house prices leads to a deterioration in lending standards and increasing financial stability risks. And the metrics APRA and the RBA look at are starting to push up in the direction of a deterioration in lending standards with record housing finance, an acceleration in housing debt (see the next chart), an increasing share of lending at high loan to valuation ratios and a rising share of interest only loans albeit from a low base. The first thing to do would be to increase interest rate buffers but limits on high loan to valuation ratio lending and high debt to income ratio lending may make sense too.

Fourth, it&rsquo;s likely that the 30 year tailwind for the property market of falling interest rates has now run its course. While variable rate hikes are probably two years away at least, four year plus fixed mortgage rates have started to move up with the rise in bond yields and shorter dated fixed mortgage rates may also start to move up over the next year. Longer term the RBA is more determined than ever to see inflation sustained in its target range which will ultimately put an end to the long term downtrend in interest rates and mean higher variable rates.

Fifth, the hit to immigration and a likely only gradual recovery in it once international borders are reopened combined with continued strong home building is likely to lead to an oversupply of property in the next few years.

Finally, the &ldquo;escape from the city&rdquo; phenomenon unleased by the pandemic and made possible by technology enabling more working from home compared to prior to the pandemic is likely to take some further pressure off capital city property prices &ndash; albeit this will drive a further catch up in regional prices.

The “escape from the city” phenomenon unleased by the pandemic and made possible by technology enabling more working from home compared to prior to the pandemic is likely to take some further pressure off capital city property prices

soliver

6 reasons to expect a gradual slowing in the pace of capital city dwelling gains: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER

The ABS reported a 0.9% lift in the December quarter CPI which was greater than Westpac’s (and the market median) forecast of 0.7%. At two decimal places the CPI lifted 0.86% with the annual pace lifting a touch from 0.7%yr to 0.9%yr.

The core measures were around expectations with the trimmed mean lifting 0.4%qtr (WBC forecast 0.3%/market median 0.4%) while the weighted median gained 0.5%. Excluding the imputed series had little impact on the core measures.

The CPI is still being influenced by government taxes and subsidies which have been pushing and pulling on the data. However, outside of dwelling prices we found little to suggests more broad based inflationary pressures.

The main surprise compared to our forecast was how the surge in housing demand lifting dwelling prices to swamp the benefit of the Home Builders Grants. In many capital cities developers were able to lift prices in excess of the value of the grants, even in Perth and Hobart were the Federal Grant ($25,000) was supplemented by state government grants ($20,000).  

In our preview we had expected that the know rise in childcare would be offset by falling housing costs but rising underlying dwelling prices swamped the discounts. Prices fell in Sydney (-0.3%), Adelaide (-0.5%), Darwin (-2.3%) and Canberra (-0.5%) but lifted in Melbourne (0.9%), Brisbane (2.0%), Perth (2.2%) and Hobart (1.1%). The large rise in Perth and Hobart is somewhat very surprising given the lower level of house prices in those capital cities and the almost doubling of the size of the grants in those cities.

It is also worth noting that rents rose 0.1%, while modest it was stronger than the expected fall -0.3%. Electricity prices fell -7.5% due to a $600 in WA which saw electricity prices fall -66.7% in Perth.  

There was the expected rise in two key components; the 33.7% lift in childcare and the 10.9% rise in tobacco prices.

The ABS informed us earlier of the magnitude of the rise in child care due to the ending of free child care in Victoria. Overall, household equipment and services rose 3.4% (WBC forecast 3.5%). Excluding child care this group would have fallen -0.7%.

Tobacco prices rise every December quarter due to the re-indexing of the excise to the CPI.

Unlike the NZ CPI it was harder to find any broader inflationary pressures from the COVID induced changes in demand. Holiday travel cost did rise bit more than expected but household contents were close to expectations while clothing fell more than expected.

However, dwelling prices are running well ahead of our expectations and even rents have turned positive. These factors can have a meaningful impact on estimates of core inflation, something we will be looking more deeply at for our monthly update.

Justin Smirk is an economist at Westpac.
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The main surprise compared to our forecast was how the surge in housing demand lifting dwelling prices to swamp the benefit of the Home Builders Grants

Joel Robinson

Q4 CPI above expectations as dwelling prices surge: Westpac

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GUEST OBSERVER
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Throughout November, capital city dwelling values rose by 0.2 percent. 
While the headline results remained in positive growth territory, the monthly capital gain reading was also the softest result since December 2015 when capital city dwelling values were unchanged over the month. The combined regional areas of Australia showed a weaker result with house values falling by 0.2 percent over the month. 
The soft performance across the combined capital city reading was attributable to a 1.5 percent fall in the Melbourne index, while all other capital cities recorded a positive month-on-month result.
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Delving into the Melbourne results in more detail showed that unit values were down a larger 3.2 percent in November, while Melbourne house values declined by 1.3 percent over the month. 
The November figures show that capital city dwelling values rose by 1.7 percent over the three months of spring; a substantial improvement over last year. Spring 2015 saw capital city dwelling values fall by 0.2 percent, with auction clearance rates dipping below 60 percent in late November and early December. 
In contrast, auction clearance rates held firm in the mid-70 percent range throughout spring this year, with Sydney clearance rates holding around the 80 percent mark over the past three months. 
On an annual basis, every capital city except for Perth is now showing a positive annual trend in dwelling value growth. The highest annual growth rate is evident in Sydney and Melbourne where dwelling values are now 13.1 percent and 11.3 percent higher respectively, reflecting a steeper upwards trajectory in growth over the second half of the year. The Hobart and Canberra markets have also seen some acceleration in growth rate trends with dwelling values up 8.5 percent, and 8.4 percent respectively over the past twelve months.
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For the first time since February 2015, Darwin’s annual growth rate has moved back into the black and recorded a 1.1 percent rise in dwelling values over the past year. Results for smaller cities such as Darwin, can tend to show higher levels of volatility. 
The November results also show a rise in transaction numbers across the Darwin market over recent months, supporting the moderate improvement in market conditions that the hedonic index is showing. 
Currently the national growth cycle has been in play for 4.5 years, with capital city dwelling values rising by 42.2 percent over the cycle to date. 
Disaggregating this growth figure highlights the diversity in market conditions with Sydney and Melbourne at one end of the spectrum experiencing an increase in dwelling values over this period of 67.3 percent and 46.3 percent respectively, while at the other end of the spectrum, Perth and Darwin values have broadly declined since 2014. Perth values are 6.9 percent higher since the cycle commenced in June 2012, while Darwin values are 13.8 percent higher over this period. 
It appears that higher unit supply is progressively weighing down the capital gains across Melbourne’s unit sector, with annual capital gains tracking at 3.9 percent for Melbourne units compared with a 12.2 percent annual gain in Melbourne house values. 
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A similar trend can be seen in Brisbane, where the supply of units across key inner city regions is also high. Brisbane house values were up 4.3 percent over the past twelve months compared with a 0.9 percent fall in unit values. 
With the unit supply pipeline remaining substantial, we expect to see a continuation of weaker market conditions across those unit markets where high supply levels are dampening the prospects for higher value growth.
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Rental yields reached a new record low in November across the combined capitals index due to dwelling values continuing to rise at a faster pace than weekly rental rates. The average gross rental yield across combined capital city dwellings is now recorded at 3.2 percent, down from 3.5 percent a year ago and 4.1 percent five years ago. 
Sydney and Melbourne share the lowest yield profile for detached housing, with an average of 2.8% in both cities, while the gross yield on Sydney units has fallen well below Melbourne’s at 3.8 percent. 
With rental markets remaining soft, it is likely there will be further yield compression across those markets where residential property values are rising. 
The only market segments where yields have improved over the past 12 months were the Hobart and Canberra unit markets where rental rates have shown a higher growth rate than unit values. 
It appears as though the low yield profile is no deterrent to investors, with ABS housing finance data showing a consistent rise in finance commitments for investment purposes since May this year. 
Clearly investors are continuing to see housing as the preferred investment option, despite low yields and a mature growth cycle. 
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Settled transaction numbers nationally have reversed their downward trend over recent months with CoreLogic estimates of settled sales rising to the highest level in a year. Even though transaction numbers have improved, settled sales remain 9.6 percent lower than a year ago. Every state and territory has shown a reduction in settled sales over the year, however the largest fall has been in Victoria with a 14.9 percent year-on-year decline. In contrast, CoreLogic mortgage valuation platforms experienced record daily volumes earlier this week, reflecting the robust level of late season market activity. 
As the last month of spring, November has seen listing numbers ramp up more substantially with the total number of homes advertised for sale over the past month now tracking higher than a year ago. The latest CoreLogic listing counts show there were approximately 113,500 properties advertised for sale over the past 28 days across the capital cities, which is 2.4 percent higher than the same time a year ago. 
Despite higher listing numbers at a combined capitals level, the hottest markets are still showing listing numbers lower than a year ago. Sydney listings are 9.4 percent lower than last year, while advertised stock levels in Melbourne are 2.9 percent lower. Hobart listings have fallen sharply compared with last year, to be 29 eprcent lower, whilst Canberra stock is 7.6 percent lower than a year ago. 
Lower stock levels in these markets are likely to be one factor contributing to the upwards pressure on dwelling values. Vendors are still very much in the driver’s seat in these markets and buyers have little in the way of leverage to negotiate, or time to consider their purchase decision. 
The strong selling conditions can also be seen in the average selling time, which is tracking at 31 and 32 days in Sydney and Melbourne respectively. Canberra and Hobart are showing the third and fourth fastest average selling times across the capital cities, at 44 and 48 days respectively. 
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With real estate agent activity across CoreLogic platforms easing over the past two weeks, it suggests that we may have moved through the peak of new listings activity. Additionally, as we move into the first month of summer, the housing market is likely to remain active for another two weeks before we start to see the normal seasonal slowdown in buyer numbers. 
After four and a half years of strong value growth, Mr Lawless said it’s hard to imagine a reacceleration in property values could be long lived. 
Affordability constraints are creating high barriers to entry, particularly in Sydney, and lenders are becoming more cautious in their lending practices. The supply pipeline is substantial for inner city units, which is likely to dampen value growth in these precincts as well as dent buyer confidence and push vacancy rates higher. 
Additionally, buyer enthusiasm could be muffled by speculation that interest rates may rise late next year, with fixed rates already starting to edge higher. 
With household debt at record levels, Australians are very sensitive to the cost of debt, and an expectation that the period of record low mortgage rates is approaching an end may reduce buyer demand. 
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Tim Lawless is head of the CoreLogic research and analytics team and can be contacted <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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tlawless-5VLUrbAk9s

Sydney dwelling values up 13 percent over the year while Perth remains in decline: Tim Lawless

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Utilising quarterly household income data from the Australian National University, CoreLogic has developed quarterly measurements of the ratio of property prices to annual household income.
This data is extremely valuable when looking to measure housing affordability.  The measure is available at a number of different geographies from SA2 regions (generally about the size of a suburb or group of suburbs) all the way up to GCCSA (capital city and rest of state) regions.  When looking at the analysis it is important to note that a higher ratio means housing is less affordable and a lower ratio indicates better affordability.
Note that CoreLogic will be releasing a range of affordability indicators over the coming months, including rental price to income ratio’s and the proportion of household income required to service a mortgage.
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With property prices varying greatly between each of the capital cities it is interesting to note that the variation in household incomes in nowhere near as large.  In March 2016, Hobart had the lowest median dwelling price at $337,250 and Sydney had the highest median price at $775,000.  Meanwhile, household incomes range from as low as $1,175/week in Hobart to $2,118/week in Darwin.  Obviously the differences in property prices and incomes impact on housing affordability, so let’s take a look at each of the capital cities and the ratio of prices to income over time.
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In March 2016 the ratio of house prices to annual household income in Sydney was 9.8 and for units it was 7.2.  Both property types are currently recording a record-high ratio. 12 months ago these ratios were recorded at 8.9 for houses and 6.8 for units. Note that the data goes as far back as September 2001 and at that time the ratios were recorded at: 6.0 for houses and 5.7 for units.
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The ratio of property prices to annual household income in March 2016 for Melbourne were recorded at: 7.7 for houses and 6.1 for units.  The ratio for houses is currently at a record high while for units it peaked at 6.6 in December 2010 and March 2011 indicating an improvement in affordability for units since that time. 
In March 2015, these ratios were recorded at 7.2 for houses and 6.0 for units. Affordability has deteriorated over the year for each property type however, detached housing affordability has deteriorated much more rapidly than units. In September 2001 the ratios were recorded at: 4.6 for houses and 4.8 for units.
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Unlike Sydney and Melbourne, the ratio of property prices to household income is falling in Brisbane, indicating improving housing affordability.  In March 2016, the ratios were recorded at 6.1 for houses and 4.9 for units.  12 months earlier the ratios were recorded at 6.1 for houses and 5.1 for units.  Brisbane housing was at its least affordable in September 2008 when the ratio of prices to household income were recorded at: 6.7 for houses and 5.7 for units.  In September 2001 the ratios for Brisbane were recorded at: 3.7 for houses and 3.8 for units.
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The ratio of property prices to household income for Adelaide peaked in December 2010 at 7.1 for houses and 5.9 for units.  In March 2016 the ratios were recorded at 6.5 for houses and 5.1 for units.  Affordability changed little over the year with the ratios recorded at 6.5 for houses and 5.3 for units in March 2015.  In September 2001, the ratios were recorded at 3.9 for houses and 2.9 for units.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Chart-6-1-580x206.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7066" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Chart-6-1-580x206.jpg" alt="Chart 6" width="580" height="206">
With Perth property prices falling, the ratio of prices to household income is also improving.  In March 2016, the ratio of prices to income was recorded at 6.0 for houses and 4.7 for units and a year earlier the ratios were 6.3 for houses and 5.1 for units.  At its peak in June 2007 the ratio of house prices to household income was 7.4 and for units the peak of 6.3 was recorded in December 2007.  In September 2011 the ratios of property prices to household income were recorded at 3.7 for houses and 3.3 for units.
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Although Hobart has the cheapest capital city property prices it is not the most affordable capital city housing market.  In March 2016, the ratio of property prices to household income was recorded at 5.8 for houses and 4.7 for units compared to 5.9 and 4.4 respectively a year earlier.  At its least affordable the ratio of prices to income was recorded at 6.5 for houses in September 2010 and 5.2 for units in March 2011.  In September 2011 the ratios were recorded at 3.1 for houses and 2.5 for units.
<img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7068" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Chart-8-580x206.jpg" alt="Chart 8" width="580" height="206">
Based on a ratio of property prices and household incomes Darwin is currently the most affordable capital city housing markets with ratios of 5.2 for houses and 4.2 for units.  Affordability is improving in the city as property prices fall with these ratios recorded at 5.5 for houses and 4.3 for units a year earlier in March 2015.  At their peak over the September and December quarters of 2010 the ratio of house prices to income was 6.0 and the ratio for units was 4.7.  In September 2001 these ratios were recorded at 3.2 for houses and 2.7 for units.
<img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7069" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Chart-9-580x205.jpg" alt="Chart 9" width="580" height="205">
In Canberra there is a divergence in results with houses becoming less affordable while affordability for units is remaining unchanged.  In March 2016, the ratios of prices to income were recorded at 5.8 for houses and 4.0 for units compared to 5.5 for houses and 4.0 for units a year earlier.  Canberra houses are at their least affordable level on record while units were their least affordable in December 2010 when they had a ratio of 4.4.  In September 2001 the ratios for Canberra were recorded at 3.6 for houses and 2.7 for units.
Outside of Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra housing affordability is improving with each capital city having a current ratio which indicates affordability has been worst in the past.
The problem is that almost 2 out of every 5 Australians live in either Sydney or Melbourne and these two cities have also been the epicentres of employment and economic growth over recent years. Deteriorating housing affordability in Sydney and Melbourne impacts on significantly more people than deteriorating housing affordability elsewhere around the country.
This measure of affordability provides a high level overview of the relative housing affordability across the capital cities, but it is important to remember that geographically across each city the affordability story can be dramatically different. 
Furthermore, this analysis does not take into consideration interest rates which can make housing affordability more affordable.  While interest rates are undoubtedly a consideration for buyers, they must also consider that interest rates can fluctuate dramatically over the life of a mortgage.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Property price to income ratio is rising in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra but flat or falling elsewhere: CoreLogic 

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GUEST OBSERVER
The CoreLogic Quarterly Housing &amp; Economic Review is a breakdown of the activity across each of the capital cities over the quarter to June 2017 and also dives into the economic factors that contribute to the overall performance of the market.
June 2017 marked the fifth anniversary of the current housing market growth phase. Over the second quarter of 2017, combined capital city dwelling values had increased by 0.8% which was their slowest quarterly growth rate since December 2015.
The June quarter has historically shown seasonal weakness, however, despite a slower rate of growth over the quarter, the combined capital cities still recorded value growth of 9.6% over the past 12 months. With values continuing to rise, the total value of residential property nationally was estimated at $7.1 trillion at the end of the quarter.
Sydney and Melbourne were the only capital cities to have recorded double-digit value growth over the past year with values increasing by 12.2% and 13.7% respectively. Although values have risen swiftly in these two cities over the year, the annual trend rate of growth has slowed since the March 2017 quarter.
Across the remaining capital cities, values have increased over the past year in Brisbane (2.0%), Adelaide (2.4%), Hobart (6.8%) and Canberra (9.6%) while values are lower in Perth (-1.7%) and Darwin (-7.0%).
In 2008 during the financial crisis, combined capital city dwelling values fell by around 6%. The combination of state and federal government stimulus and aggressive cuts to the cash rate by the Reserve Bank saw values rise from the end of 2008 and since then, over two growth cycles, combined capital city dwelling values have increased by 69.8%.
The rates of growth since 2008 have been substantially greater in Sydney (110.9%) and Melbourne (95.3%) than across all other capital cities. Canberra (39.1%) is the only other capital city to have seen values rise by more than 20% since the end of 2008. Growth in Sydney and Melbourne has been due to a range of factors, including but not limited to: rapid population growth, much stronger economic conditions driving employment growth and a relatively low supply of established stock available for sale.
The ongoing rises in home values are being supported by a low cost of borrowing.
As values have increased over recent years, so too has supply with new housing construction, particularly construction of units, recently passing through a new historically high level. New construction activity has been driven by the low cost of borrowing and the elevated level of activity from the investor segment of the market, including demand emanating from overseas.
It is reasonable to conclude that many of the new units constructed in particular, have been purchased by investors. It has also been widely reported that the level of purchasing by offshore buyers has increased dramatically over recent years which has also supported the heightened level of new housing construction. The surge in unit construction is already leading to units increasing in value at a slower pace than houses across a number of capital cities.
Although new housing construction has started to slow, a substantial volume of units remain under construction and will continue to ensure completions remain elevated over the next few years.
A year ago the rental market was showing clear signs of slowing with the surge of new housing stock causing rental growth to slow. Over the past nine to 12 months, rental growth has started to pick-up noticeably. It is difficult to know exactly what has driven this however, rapid population growth and the sheer lack of affordability of owning a home are most likely drivers.
Furthermore, the rising popularity of AirBNB is potentially resulting in some level of stock removal from the long-term rental market and increasing supply in the short-term market. Additionally, as mortgage rates edge higher, particularly for investment mortgages, it is likely that landlords will be doing their best to recoup their higher cost of debt by pushing rents higher.
Capital city dwelling values have now been rising for five years and the rate of growth in Sydney and Melbourne has been significantly greater than that outside of these two cities. While lower mortgage rates have improved mortgage serviceability, for those that don’t own a home it is increasingly difficult for them to firstly save a large enough deposit and secondly to compete with the equity that current home owners have built over recent years.
The housing market conditions prevalent in Sydney and Melbourne are not prevalent across the rest of the country however, these cities are being supported by strong economic and demographic conditions which are fuelling mortgage demand.
Mortgage rates have clearly played a role in driving housing demand in Sydney and Melbourne but the relatively weaker economic conditions outside of these two cities have dampened housing demand elsewhere. With affordability becoming stretched we are seeing increasing pushes for housing market reform from Government. These calls are expected to only grow louder the longer the current growth conditions persist.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Sydney, Melbourne record double-digit value growth

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Amid increasingly irrational media coverage of property markets, occasionally there is a mild outbreak of common sense.
It’s doesn’t happen often, but sometimes someone who understands real estate and doesn’t have publicity as their prime objective will comment – and a media outlet will actually print it.
It’s unusual because media tends to favour sensational negatives from non-specialists for whom the main motivation is generation of publicity.
Amid the great seething mass of nonsense about housing affordability – dominated by people arguing their vested interest, political world-view or pet theory, often with a silver-bullet miracle solution – there is the occasional commentator who understands the issue.
This rare moment of common sense on the affordability issue came from Ken Morrison, CEO of the Property Council of Australia:
“For 20 years we have had a logjam of costly regulation, poor planning decisions and excessive taxation across all levels of government. This has driven up construction costs, impeded supply and resulted in the dramatic increase in house prices in our major cities …
“This affordability cauldron has taken years to develop, and it will take concerted effort over many years to unwind ...
"Too much of the housing affordability debate has misdiagnosed the problems, focused on measures that won't do anything to fix affordability, or set out to blame scapegoats for political convenience.”
That’s the best summary of the issue I’ve seen in all these years of hot air, parliamentary inquiries, political rhetoric, media outrage and lack of decisive action. But it has been drowned by the tsunami of emotive misinformation that has dominated the “debate”.
Then we have the issue of the alleged bubble, over-valuation of housing and impending collapse of values – usually from overseas observers looking at Australia through a very long telescope, although also from the usual local suspects such as Shane “Why can’t I ever get this right?” Oliver or Steve “Why are people still listening to me?” Keen.
Media just loves hearing from anyone silly enough to predict that our housing values will fall massively.
And then, recently, out of the blue someone with a rational, well-thought-out viewpoint was given some minor airplay.
Stephen Halmarick, chief economist at Colonial First State Global Asset Management (Australia’s biggest fund manager), said that the risks of a residential property crash were being exaggerated. He said he’s heard stories of impending doom in the property market for most of his 30-year career, but he doesn’t see any more risk of a crash this time.
“I do get a little bit worked up sometimes when I read in the paper that there will be lots of mortgage stress if interest rates rise sharply,” Halmarick said. “But inflation would have to increase dramatically above the target range before that occurs. So you ask yourself the probability of those things happening - and I think it is pretty low …
“I’ve seen so-called experts from overseas — usually Americans — saying that the housing market in Australia is a bubble that’s going to burst and take the banking system with it. They’ve been telling me that for 25 years and they’re still wrong.”
While he conceded that there are pockets of concern in the eastern capital cities, Halmarick said the Australian housing market “isn’t as vulnerable as some of the headlines would lead you to believe”. And he does not see much risk to the financial system from the property market.
“People just look at gross debt to income, which is high, at 190%,” he said. “But if you look at net debt to income — taking account of the redraw facilities — household debt has been roughly flat since 2006 because people have used the lower interest rates to repay their mortgages faster.
“So the value of housing assets has gone up a lot, as have super funds and other investments of households. So their net wealth continues to rise and is actually close to record highs.”
Many articles have characterised the current situation as a national property boom, with prices either soaring or skyrocketing – everywhere, apparently – and “white hot” markets running rampant with growth that is unprecedented.
And then recently Property Observer quietly put that into perspective with some data which showed that, compared to the previous cycle, it’s all far from extraordinary and unprecedented.
It reported that capital city dwelling values (the average across the eight cities) have risen 45 percent in the past seven years, compared to a rise of 98 percent in the previous seven years (2000 to 2007).
“So far this decade, dwelling values growth is less than half that over the same period last decade,” Property Observer reported.
This is because that previous period included the last time Australia had a genuine nationwide property boom. In 2003, according to ABS data, every capital city grew at least 13 percent in terms of median house prices, with four cities above 20 percent growth.
We haven’t had anything remotely like that this time around. The overall city growth figure for the past seven years is relatively low because only Sydney has had consecutive years of double-digit growth, while Melbourne has only recently challenged. Perth and Darwin have been going backwards for four years, while Adelaide and Brisbane have delivered very little growth. Hobart and Canberra have recently sprung to life.
So the scenario across the past four years has been big performance in Sydney, un-matched by any other city. Sydney’s situation dominates coverage by media, which has tended to extrapolate the city’s growth and pricing levels to the rest of the nation, creating a national crisis.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
 
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Common sense can prevail in the housing affordability issue: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released quarterly Consumer Price Index data for September 2015. The data showed that headline inflation was recorded at 0.5% for the quarter and was 1.5% higher over the year.
<a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-14.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-14.jpg" alt="">
 
As the above chart shows, at 1.5%, headline inflation is below the Reserve Bank’s target range of between 2.0% and 3.0% per annum.  While the headline figure is important, the RBA also likes to look at measures of underlying inflation which exclude some of the more volatile items.  Both measures of underlying inflation; the trimmed mean and the weighted median were recorded at a lower 0.3% over the quarter and have increased by 2.1% and 2.2% respectively over the past year.  These annual increases place underlying inflation within the lower band of the RBA’s target range, it would also indicate that if the RBA felt it necessary they have scope to reduce official interest rates.
<a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-23.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-23.jpg" alt="">
The effects of inflation are also an important factor to consider for housing markets.  Although we generally talk about home value growth in nominal terms, real or inflation-adjusted home value changes are also important to consider.  Over the 12 months to September 2015, combined capital city home values have increased by a nominal rate of 11.0% however, in real terms that figure drops to 9.4%.  The above chart shows the annual rate of value change across the individual capital cities in both nominal and real terms.  It highlights once again the significant difference in value growth conditions in Sydney and Melbourne relative to the other capital cities.
<a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-32.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-32.jpg" alt="">
 
In real terms home values have only increased over the past five years in Sydney and Melbourne.  On a compound annual basis, falls have been recorded at -1.7%pa in Brisbane, -2.0%pa in Adelaide, -1.5%pa in Perth, -3.5%pa in Hobart, -3.9%pa in Darwin and -1.4%pa in Canberra.  Real home values have increased at a rate of 4.9%pa over the past five years in Sydney and 1.7%pa in Melbourne.  Over the past decade, real home values have fallen in Hobart and have risen at a rate of less than 2%pa in Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra.
<a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-4.jpg" alt="">
 
To further highlight the differences across the cities it is valuable to have a look at nominal and real value growth across the capital cities since 2008.  Between March and December of 2008 combined capital city home values fell by a nominal -6.1% or a real -8.3%.  On the back of aggressive interest rate cuts and stimulus in the form of the Boost to the First Home Owners Grant, values began to rise from that point.  Although combined capital city home values have increased since 2008, this is largely by virtue of strong value growth in Sydney and Melbourne.  In fact, real home values are currently lower in Brisbane (-5.2%), Adelaide (-5.4%), Perth (-3.0%) and Hobart (-16.1%) than they were at the end of 2008, almost eight years of no real value growth in these cities.  Real value rises have been moderate since 2008 in Darwin (5.0%) and Canberra (4.1%) and substantially greater in Sydney (51.4%) and Melbourne (41.9%).
<a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-5.jpg" alt="">
The above chart looks at the change in real home values on a quarterly basis since their previous peak.  What is immediately noticeable is that Sydney (+24.3%) and Melbourne (+8.9%) are the only cities in which values are now higher than their previous peaks.  The journey to get back above their peaks was somewhat different, Sydney took 41 quarters to eclipse its March 2004 peak while Melbourne took 19 quarters to eclipse its September 2010 peak.  Across each remaining capital city, real home values are below their previous peaks, the figures for each city are: -11.8% in Brisbane, -10.0% in Adelaide, -13.0% in Perth, -21.3% in Hobart, -17.9% in Darwin and -8.1% in Canberra.  For Brisbane, Perth and Hobart in particular the journey back to the previous peak has proven to be long with these markets previously peaking in March 2008, September 2007 and December 2007 respectively.
As values continue to rise in Sydney and Melbourne and show falls or moderate nominal growth in other capital cities, the affordability gap will continue to widen.  At some point these other capital city markets will once again become attractive to buyers.  Importantly this won’t be driven by affordability factors alone; employment opportunities, amenity and local infrastructure, amongst other factors, will be important factors.  The data also highlights that long periods of value falls do happen in the Australian housing market and clearly housing is not a one-way bet.  The broader statistics do tend to be overshadowed by the impact of the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets who are substantially bigger than all other capital cities.
 
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Real home values remain below previous peak: Cameron Kusher

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We look at the regions that have had at least 50 settled sales in both 2015 and 2016.
<div>
Each of the council areas that have recorded the greatest total value of sales over the past year have recorded a decline relative to a year ago.
The total value of transactions is an important figure to consider for real estate and mortgage professionals.  Because commission is typically calculated for real estate agents on the value of the sale and for mortgage providers based on the size of the loan, understanding where the value of transactions is greatest is valuable.  The following analysis looks at the value of sales across council areas; keep in mind that the size of the council region will have an impact.  We have only included regions that have had at least 50 settled sales in both 2015 and 2016.
<h3>Council areas with the highest value of sales, 12 months to Aug 2016</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/11/30/2016-11-28--image1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/30/2016-11-28--image1.jpg" alt="" width="641" height="430">
Brisbane has recorded the greatest total value of sales over the past year at $16.8 billion however, the value is -11.2 percent lower over the year. The first table shows the total value of sales over the past year and the previous year for each of the 20 council areas nationally with the greatest value of sales.  Each of the top 20 regions listed have seen fewer overall sales and a lower total value of sales relative to 2015.
The second table shows the council regions that have seen the greatest increase in the overall value of sales over the past year. Circular Head in Tasmania has seen a 91.6 percent increase in the value of sales over the past year.  Most of the regions listed have seen an increase in sales over the year, the exceptions have been Circular Head and Wakefield. This suggests that the increase in value has been more driven by an increase in values of properties rather than an increase in turnover.
<h3>Council areas with the greatest increase in value of sales, 12 months to Aug 2016</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/11/30/2016-11-28--image2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/30/2016-11-28--image2.jpg" alt="" width="650" height="460">
The final table highlights the council regions nationally that have recorded the greatest decline in the total value of sales over the past year.  Maranoa in Queensland has recorded then greatest decline in the total value of sales over the year, -48.1% lower.  In each of these regions except for Isaac in Queensland, the number of sales is lower over the year which is clearly contributing to the decline in value of sales.  A number of these regions are also linked to the mining and resources sector where home values have fallen substantially over recent years.  These factors are also contributing to the slide in the overall value of sales.
<h3>Council areas with the greatest decline in value of sales, 12 months to Aug 2016</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/11/30/2016-11-28--image3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/30/2016-11-28--image3.jpg" alt="">
With the turnover of housing stock reducing across the country and fewer homes available for sale the amount of commission is reducing. One strategy that will help to alleviate this reduction in the commission pool is for industry participants to target those areas where turnover is increasing. Mortgage professionals will need to look more at opportunities in the refinance space, in Sydney and Melbourne in particular, these opportunities should be sufficient given the significant rise in housing equity over recent years. 
Of course, another strategy to protect revenue is to improve market share.  Many businesses tend to tighten the purse strings for marketing and business development, however a contracting market offers up good opportunities to expand market share and increase productivity.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Brisbane property sales drop off: CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

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When I described Australia’s price data mess at a recent seminar, many in the audience were incredulous.
Some had believed that if a national newspaper told them Sydney prices had risen 10 percent, based on figures from a well-known research entity, then that was a fact to be relied upon.
If a research report portrayed a 10 percent decline in Darwin apartment prices, that was information you could take to the bank.
I showed that audience how different the reality was. With scary regularity, figures about prices from one source are commonly contradicted by data from others.
The problem is, no one in Australian media seems to have noticed. If journalists are aware, they’ve decided to ignore that reality because it makes life complicated.
So this week media dined out on the latest price figures from CoreLogic. Here’s a sampling of the headlines:-
Sydney house prices cement return to double-digit growth (AFR)
Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra house prices galloping ahead (New Daily)
Strong early spring for Melbourne home prices as values rise again (Herald Sun) 
There were many other similar ones. Those headlines and the articles that followed showed a blind acceptance of the figures from that one source as absolute fact.
But they’re nothing of the sort. They’re just one version of the truth, which can change dramatically depending on who you’re listening to. 
Sydney house prices were stated by CoreLogic to have risen 10.9 percent in the past year. Stand by for another TV cameo from Alan Kohler, telling ABC watchers that Sydney’s still booming.
But the latest figures from Domain claim that annual house price growth in Sydney is just 2.1 percent. Meanwhile, SQM Research reports annual growth of 1.7 percent and Residex says 2.1 percent. 
There are similar discrepancies with the figures for the Sydney apartment market. CoreLogic reports an annual rise of 9.1 percent, while SQM says 4.0 percent, Residex 4.2 percent and Domain just 0.9 percent.
The most recent Property Price Indexes from the ABS reported a rise of 3.6 percent for Sydney.
Those are big differences. One source claims Sydney is still booming while others portray an end to the boom. You’ll notice that CoreLogic is very much the odd one out.
But the differences are even more startling in other cities.
CoreLogic reports a 10.2 percent annual rise for Darwin’s apartment market, but Residex records a 10.9 percent decline. One portrays a boom and the other a disaster. They can’t both be right – and there’s a strong possibility they’re both wrong. Domain records a 4 percent rise and SQM a 2.7 percent fall.
SQM says Hobart’s apartment market is up a rather spectacular 21.7 percent, but Domain reports an 11.7 percent decline. One claims a nation-leading runaway boom and the other a catastrophic decline.
What are we to believe?
CoreLogic reports a rise of 6.3 percent for apartment prices as the average situation across the eight capitial cities. Economists interpret this as “Australian apartment prices are up 6.3 percent” while myopic ratings agencies like Standard &amp; Poor’s see it (taken in conjunction with the high levels of new supply) as evidence that a “sharp correction” in prices is looming.
But are “Australian apartment prices” really up 6.3 percent? SQM records an overall position of a 0.1 percent decline for that same market, while Domain reports a rise of just 1.2 percent and Residex says the market overall is up 3.9 percent.
Similarly, what are we meant to believe about Sydney’s median house price? The price of the mid-range Sydney house is $920,000, $1,068,000 or $1,165,000, depending on which researcher you believe. There’s a difference of $245,000 between the highest and the lowest.
The greatest problem is the way media reports each set of figures. Each is re-cycled to the public as fact. No one highlights the reality that they’re statistics from a single source and that other sources are delivering different results.
It’s a serious situation. Consumers base big investment decisions on these figures. They shouldn’t, but they do. 
I’ve heard investors talking about their intention to dive into the Sydney market because they read somewhere that prices are still rising at a double-digit rate. They missed the previous week’s article which said prices were rising only 2 percent.
We’re at a point where consumers can believe almost nothing that they read on real estate prices.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Consumers can believe almost nothing they read on real estate prices

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Hotspotting’s Dirty Dozen – the 12 worst places to invest in Australia – has for a long time been dominated by markets closely linked to the resources sector. 
The latest batch – included in the new edition of The Price Predictor Index – has a different flavour. Half of the locations are suburban markets, with considerably less dominance by the mining-related centres.
There are two reasons: oversupply has coincided with a decline in sales to turn many city apartment markets no go zones – and there are glimmers of recovery in some of those down-trodden resources locations.
One of the most remarkable emerging news stories right now is the speed of the turnaround in perception, confidence and activity in the resources sector. After 2-3 years of “the resources boom is over” articles, suddenly the news is dominated by rising commodity prices and announcements of new mining ventures or the revival of projects previously mothballed. 
This is particularly true in Queensland, where the spectacular rise in the price for coal has changed the mentality of the industry and perceptions about the state economy.
Personally, I wish they’d leave coal in the ground and find better, cleaner ways to make steel or fire up power stations. 
But for anyone who owns real estate in places like Mackay, Emerald, Moranbah or Rockhampton in Queensland, as well as the towns of the Hunter Valley in New South Wales, this is seriously good news. There is now genuine hope of vacancy rates coming down and rents and prices rising again.
Consider this from The Courier-Mail on 17 October: “A third Queensland coal mine has announced its ­intention to restart production as demand out of China has pushed the spot price above $US220 a tonne. Cockatoo Coal has emerged from administration with a plan to restart the Baralaba mine early next year. It follows Glencore’s decision to restart production at the Collinsville mine, while Stanmore Coal has taken over the Isaac Plains mine from Vale and Sumitomo and has now settled contracts for November delivery of its semisoft coking coal at $US130 a tonne, which is 75 percent higher than September’s price.”
And this from The Herald in Newcastle on 14 October: “The Hunter coal industry is back on an optimistic footing after big rises in prices both for coking coal for steelmaking and the region’s main product, thermal coal for power stations. In round figures, thermal coal prices are up by about 70 percent on lows earlier this year, while coking coal, which makes up about 15 percent of Hunter output, has effectively doubled. The price increases have led analysts to re-rate most Hunter mines as profitable, whereas a year ago it was widely accepted that two out of three mines were losing money.”
Or this from the Financial Review on 12 October: “The mining industry has reached an agreement with Japanese steel makers that prices for most Australian coking coal will jump 117 percent in just three months, an increase that means that the benefit of rising prices could be felt across the economy. The agreement means most Australian coking coal will be sold for $US200 per tonne over the next three months, compared with $US81 per tonne in the March quarter. The boom in coal prices could add 2 percent to national income this year, boost Federal Budget revenues by close to $7 billion and start wages growing again. Less than a year after the coal industry was accused of being in terminal decline, shuttered mines across Queensland and NSW have been reopened.”
Business Insider reported on 17 October: “With just over two months to go, it appears that 2016 could well be an important turning point for Australia’s mining sector. Commodity prices have recovered, the downturn in capital investment appears to be nearing its end and there are even some signs of a pickup in non-mining infrastructure investment, which is helping to boost sentiment after years of depressing, capital-destroying developments. For an economy that’s still highly-dependent on the mining sector, it’s been welcome news.”
What a startling difference in the rhetoric is so short a space of time.
There are all kinds of implications for economies and government budgets, but also for real estate in affected areas.
For those long-suffering investors who have been agonising over whether to cut their loses and get out of badly-performing properties in places like Gladstone in Queensland and Newman in Western Australia, there is now some hope that hanging on will deliver, in time, a reasonable outcome.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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