Dwelling Construction

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<p style="text-align: left;" align="center">GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The multi-unit apartment and townhouse construction industry has reached record highs over the past five years. However, volatile conditions have led to mixed results for many construction firms.</p>
<p>Construction features prominently in IBISWorld’s Top 500 Private Companies list for 2016.</p>
<p>The list features 57 construction companies, including three companies in the top 20: BGC, Meriton Apartments and Hutchinson Builders.</p>
<p>Year-on-year revenue growth for the 57 listed construction companies varied widely, from growth of 327.5 percent to a decline of 49.1 percent, reflecting a tumultuous year in construction.</p>
<p>The top five private construction companies for growth in this year’s list include Central Equity, Lipman, Mainbrace Constructions, Pellicano Builders and Burbank Australia, which have displayed revenue growth of between 327.5 percent and 51.8 percent over the past year. </p>
<p>While construction companies generally performed well in this year’s Top 500 Private Companies list, four appeared in the top 10 private companies with the biggest revenue declines, including Murphy Pipe and Civil Group, S J Higgins Group, Vaughan Constructions and Grocon Group.</p>
<p><strong>Multi-unit residential construction</strong></p>
<p>The multi-unit apartment and townhouse construction industry has grown strongly over the past five years, boosted by foreign investment and Australians becoming increasingly comfortable with inner-city living.</p>
<p>Underlying demand for new housing is underpinned by Australia’s migrant intake, population growth, foreign investment in the property market, historically low mortgage interest rates, and an increasing desire to live in inner-city multi-unit apartments and townhouses.</p>
<p>IBISWorld expects the multi-unit apartment and townhouse construction industry to post annualised growth of 3.8 percent over the five years through 2016-17, to reach $17.4 billion. Revenue is projected to strengthen further over the five years through 2021-22, increasing at an annualised 5.0 percent to reach $22.1 billion.</p>
<p><strong>Sharp correction</strong></p>
<p>Despite the industry’s bright outlook, revenue is expected to slump by 17.3 percent over the current year as investors hold off on new developments to allow recently added stock to be absorbed.</p>
<p>Recent additions of new apartment stock have exceeded immediate housing requirements, and vacancy rates have climbed in several major markets, particularly in Melbourne and Brisbane. The decline in activity also reflects the anticipated completion of several major projects during 2016-17.</p>
<p>Industry revenue is expected to decline sharply over the current year, before stabilising in 2018-19. Industry revenue is forecast to recover strongly following these corrections, reaching new record highs over the next five years as demand for new housing and rental accommodation underpins a return to accelerated growth.</p>
<p><strong>Around the nation</strong></p>
<p>Apartments have captured an increasing share of total residential building commencements over the past five years, particularly for inner-city multistorey apartment complexes. These projects are expected to make up 39.7 percent, or $6.9 billion, of the industry’s total revenue of $17.4 billion in 2016-17.</p>
<p>Over the past five years, much of the industry’s focus has been on well-publicised multistorey apartment towers in capital cities.</p>
<p>South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory have experienced declines in the value of multi-unit and townhouse residential property construction activity over the past five years. Other states, particularly New South Wales and Queensland, have seen strong growth from the same market.</p>
<p><strong>Foreign investment</strong></p>
<p>Multi-unit residential commencements are forecast to surge from 2019-20 onwards as more projects are brought to the start-up phase. Foreign investment in apartment developments, particularly from investors in China, Singapore and Hong Kong, is likely to support this growth. </p>
<p>The Australian market is expected to remain attractive for foreign investors, especially as the value of the Australian dollar is anticipated to remain low.</p>
<p><em>Anthony Kelly is senior industry analyst, IBISWorld and can be contacted <a href="https://www.ibisworld.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Surging apartment construction driving growth across multiple states: Anthony Kelly

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<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/63125/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>We often take for granted our access to vast quantities of inexpensive goods manufactured overseas.</p>
<p>And we often overlook the unassuming innovation that has made this global industrial revolution possible: the shipping container.</p>
<p>While the shipping container was conceived in the 1950s by American businessman Malcom McLean, it was only widely adopted after the US military used containers to supply its war effort in Vietnam in the 1960s.</p>
<p>After the Vietnam war, container ports were built in Japan and then the rest of the world. Old ports, such as in New York, were devastated, while ports such as Oakland, in California, became the new centres of globalised shipping. </p>
<p>With containerisation went the old wharf-side communities of dockers and labourers, previously employed to hoist cargo with ropes and pulleys. This fundamentally changed not only the urban fabric of port cities but the very dynamics of globalisation.</p>
<p>With more than 18 million in the global fleet, shipping containers have become an ubiquitous icon of globalisation.</p>
<p>At the same time, shipping containers have become a surprising part of modern urbanisation, infrastructure and the built environment. Here, their boxy and bland uniformity has become a tableau for creativity, innovation and experimentation.</p>
<p>Plug-in cities</p>
<p>Container architecture has roots in both mid-20th-century modernism and an entirely different approach to architecture and urbanism that emerged in the new millennium.</p>
<p>Antecedents to today’s container architecture can be seen in Yona Friedman’s La Ville Spatiale, the work of Japanese Metabolists, such as Arata Isozaki, and the Plug-in City of Peter Cook and the Archigram Group.</p>
<p>These architects imagined vast mega-structures to support countless mobile, transportable and containerised units.</p>
<p>In the early 2000s an entirely different approach to architecture and urbanism was emerging. This DIY and experimental approach had more in common with Christopher Alexander – architect and father of the Pattern Language movement in design and construction – than high modernism.</p>
<p>It is also extremely diverse, including parklets, tactical urbanism and the pop-up retail phenomenon.</p>
<p>The shipping container slotted into this movement nicely. Whether it’s a container bar, a pop-up retail shop or beer garden, a garden shed, a prepper’s bunker or entire university dorms, the shipping container has become a common feature of the modern built environment. </p>
<p>Plug-and-play infrastructure</p>
<p>Much has been made of the use of containers in architecture, even though their suitability for long-term living is widely debated. Less explored is the way containers and containerisation have been transforming infrastructure.</p>
<p>There is great need for easy access to infrastructure, from medical facilities to water treatment around the world. The shipping container is an appealing option, being rapidly deployable, scaleable, transportable, plug-and-play and a turn-key solution.</p>
<p>Again, the military has been at the forefront of many of these innovations, as have the oil, gas and mining industries, where containers are used for housing, sanitation, cooking and power generation.</p>
<p>But innovative approaches to containerised infrastructure are rapidly expanding outside the military and energy sectors.</p>
<p>Interest in containerised green energy is growing. In fact, fully containerised biogas plants using methane generated from landfill or agricultural waste are a mature industry.</p>
<p>Containerised solar and wind power generators are also generating a lot of interest. Green Tech Africa, for example, is aiming to provide solar power to sub-Saharan Africa through systems including containerised solar power and storage systems.</p>
<p>At least two companies – Uprise Energy and Natural Power Concepts – are developing portable wind turbines that deploy from containers. This, in turn, has attracted interest from Oshkosh Defense and the military.</p>
<p>All in a box</p>
<p>Innovative approaches to containerised infrastructure have expanded outside the energy sectors.</p>
<p>Clinic In A Can builds fully equipped, customisable, solar-powered containerised clinics. These clinics have been deployed in the developing world, remote areas and in disaster relief missions.</p>
<p>At least one hospital in the US purchased Clinic In A Can’s isolation unit to cope with potential patients infected with Ebola or another highly infectious disease.</p>
<p>A more surprising use of containers is food production. Motivated by the farm-to-table ethos, the owners of The Farmery, a food truck in North Carolina, partnered with Williamson Greenhouses to develop the Crop Box.</p>
<p>This is a complete hydroponic growing system using super-efficient LEDs. It can produce the equivalent of one acre of lettuce inside a single container. Students at Stony Brook University are using a similar system, built by Freight Farms, to grow over a thousand heads of lettuce a week for the campus.</p>
<p>Farm From a Box offers a different business model and vision. They have packaged the core components and tools needed to set up the equivalent of a two-acre farm in a single turnkey farm kit in a shipping container.</p>
<p>Farm From a Box</p>
<p>Water purification and sewage treatment are another two infrastructure services that have been containerised, with systems on offer from many companies.</p>
<p>Residential-scale treatment facilities such as one offered by Biokubeseem like they might offer an attractive solution to cities such as Rio de Janeiro with well-publicised sewage treatment problems.</p>
<p>Containers are also providing scaleable solutions for digital infrastructure as well, from solar-powered internet cafes in refugee camps and developing cities to the rapidly growing market for data centres in the developed world.</p>
<p>These are just some of the innovative and emerging infrastructure services that are being containerised and deployed, not only in the developing world, but in our own backyards.</p>
<p>This isn’t the containerised vision imagined by Archigram or the Metabolists, but it certainly is reminiscent of it, in a Through the Looking Glass way. Not a plug-in city built around a centralised infrastructure, but plug and play infrastructure providing real solutions for a rapidly urbanising planet.</p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name">Morgan Saletta is from the h</span>istory and philosophy of Science and Department of Management and Marketing, University of Melbourne and an author for The conversation. he can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/morgan-saletta-138289" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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How shipping containers are changing infrastructure: the plug and the play city

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<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/76776/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Crane-spotters rejoice. The <span class="s2">10th Rider Levett Bucknall (RLB) Crane Index®</span> is public. And the news is, well, rather illuminating.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Operating since 2012, the Australian RLB Crane Index® tracks the number of tower cranes in key cities in Australia. Based on the theory that cranes in the sky indicate major project construction, the index gives a simple insight into the construction sector’s health within Australia.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">So, what does the 10th edition tell us?</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The most obvious message is that if cranes were the only thing that mattered in the competition between the capitals, Sydney would win hands down. Sydney’s skylines are home to more than 50 percent of Australia’s cranes. Melbourne has 22 percent and Brisbane 12 percent, with the remaining 10 percent divvied up between other major cities across the country. While the overall number of cranes in Australia has declined slightly, the index in Sydney and Melbourne continues to rise.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-03%20at%208.31.09%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p class="p2"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-03%20at%208.31.09%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p class="p5"><span class="s1"><strong>Most cranes are used to construct apartments</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">But it’s not just the number of these soaring splendours of the sky that is of interest to those keeping an eye on cities. There have also been shifts in the number of cranes dedicated to sector.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The vast majority of cranes (about 84 percent) are used on residential sites – ie. the construction of apartments. Commercial projects come in a pitiful second with 5 percent of crane activity. Other sectors, including health, education, infrastructure and recreation projects, make cameo appearances to make up the remaining 11 percent.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The distribution of cranes amongst project types, however, and the shift in this distribution, is different from city to city. All cities apart from the east coast powerhouses of Sydney and Melbourne experienced a decrease in cranes on residential projects. And the increase in cranes building apartments in Sydney (34) far outstrips any increase in Melbourne (13).</span></p>
<p class="p5"><span class="s1"><strong>Cranes cluster in Melbourne but spread all over Sydney</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Another interesting insight from the index is the geographical dispersal of cranes across cities. The index report contains heat maps showing hot spots for crane activity. Again, the difference in the dispersal of cranes across Sydney compared to Melbourne is particularly telling.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-03%20at%208.33.11%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p class="p2"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-03%20at%208.33.11%20AM.png" alt=""> </p>
<p class="p2"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-03%20at%208.34.24%20AM.png" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p class="p2"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-03%20at%208.34.24%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>While Sydney’s 292 residential cranes are scattered throughout the entire metropolitan area, Melbourne’s 122 long-armed navvies are more concentrated in its inner urban core.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Why the increases in cranes dedicated to residential construction in Sydney and Melbourne? And why the differences in dispersal versus concentration between the two cities?</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The larger apartment blocks which require cranes are expensive to construct – the square-metre rates are at least double the rates of lower-density dwellings. For these larger projects to be feasible, they need to be in a neighbourhood where the price of the finished apartment is still less than the price of a separate dwelling – ie. areas with a higher median house price.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Previously, this situation did not apply to many suburbs. However, the most recent surge in housing prices in Sydney has pushed up prices, rendering high-rise construction feasible in many more areas. This has extended not only the prevalence of high-rise, but also their footprint across the city.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Of course, the price surge has also been experienced in Melbourne, but to a lesser degree and in a more concentrated manner, with Melbourne’s pricier suburbs sticking closely to the inner urban core.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">A second reason for the increase and dispersion in Sydney is that many of these larger projects are now approved by Sydney planning panels, rather than by local government. The majority of members of these panels are experts appointed by the planning minister. Hence they avoid the anti-densification tradition that lingers in some local government areas, again enabling approval and construction of high-rise throughout the suburbs.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The RLB crane index is therefore not just a source of fascination for urban crane-spotters. Although it isn’t exactly rigorous evidence of city morphology over time, it’s interesting to look sideways from traditional indices for novel expressions of change.</span></p>
<p>Jennifer Kent is<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jennifer-kent-13822"> </a>research fellow, University of Sydney and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jennifer-kent-13822" target="_blank">here</a>.</p>
<p>Peter Phibbs is chair of Urban Planning and Policy, University of Sydney and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-phibbs-27130" target="_blank">here</a>.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Both are authors for The Conversation.</span></p>
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Crane-spotting: a way to tell which Australian cities are growing and where

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<div>One of the most notable aspects of this building approvals boom has been that it has been focussed on the building of high density housing to an unprecedented extent.</div>
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<div>If you want capital growth from property then I suggest that you should be wary of high rise stock since proportionately far too much of it is has been approved.</div>
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<div>Approvals in most instances do now seem to be pulling back, but the approvals pipeline has seen 4+ storey dwellings pushed through this cycle to date in unprecedented volumes.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In August the number of approvals pulled back in Victoria from 1,766 to as the new <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/building-approvals-boom-passes-peak" target="_blank">levy</a> takes effect, but the 12mMA trendline tells its own story...</div>
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<div><span>In Queensland the number of 4+ storey dwelling approvals at 895 in August was well below the extraordinarily high volumes approved in 7 of the preceding 9 months, and the trendline peak now seems to be in...</span></div>
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<div><span>Being home to the largest capital city, New South Wales has typically approved the greatest number of high rise apartments, although here too approvals fell from an elevated 3,431 to 1,887 in August...</span></div>
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<div>Overall it seems that the great flood of approvals of high rise apartments is now easing as developers take note of the looming oversupply.</div>
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<div>The problem with the highest density tower blocks for investors is simply that there is no inherent scarcity value. </div>
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<div>Pass.</div>
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<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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The high rise apartment glut: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released building approvals data for July 2015 earlier this week. According to the data there were 19,298 dwelling approvals over the month which represents an increase of 4.2% over the month and a year-on-year rise of 13.4%. Monthly dwelling approvals reached a record high of 20,260 approvals in March 2015 and the July 2015 result represents the fifth largest monthly number of dwelling approvals on record.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/02/Chart-1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
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<p>Over the month there were more unit approvals than house approvals. In fact it was only the seventh time on record that there were more units approved over the month than houses, five of which have happened in 2015. Although unit approvals outnumbered house approvals over the month it is important to note that they tend to be much more volatile than house approvals and are ultimately less likely to be built than houses (approximately 85% of all unit approvals proceed through to a completion historically). Although this is the case, particularly for larger unit development, the economic benefit is extended over a longer period because they take much longer to complete.</p>
<p>In July 2015 there were 9,479 houses and 9,819 unit approvals over the month. House approvals fell by -2.6% in July and were -2.1% lower year-on-year.  Meanwhile, unit approvals increased by 11.7% in July (following a fall of -13.3% in June) and were 33.8% higher year-on-year.  On an annual basis there has been a record high 224,121 approvals to July 2015. To put the recent ramp-up in approvals into perspective, three years ago there were just 148,449 approvals over the year.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/02/Chart-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/09/02/Chart-2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>As the number of approvals has increased, the greatest rise has occurred across the multi-unit segment. Over the past 12 months a record high 48.3% of all approvals were for units. If you look just at the capital city markets 55.7% of all dwelling approvals were for units.  </span></p>
<p><span>The rise in unit approvals is reflective of changing lifestyle patterns with more and more people preferring to live closer to the city centre and along transport spines where most of these units are located. It also shows that developers are enjoying a level of confidence by seeking approvals for a record high number of units.  </span></p>
<p><span>Another factor contributing to the rise in higher density dwelling approvals is changes in town planning policies where governments are aiming to maximise existing transport infrastructure by allowing higher densities along existing and planned transport corridors and mixed use precincts.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/02/Chart-3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
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<p>If we look at the types of units that are being approved it is interesting to note the sharp rise in high-rise approvals, that is units in a block of four or more storeys.  Over the past 12 months, a record high 63.4% of all unit approvals were within high-rise projects while a record low 26.2% of approvals were terrace and townhouses and a record low 4.9% of approvals were for units in a one or two storey block. Again, these figures just go to show the heightened level of developer confidence particularly when you consider the relative level of risk associated with high rise development.</p>
<p>The number of dwelling approvals remains high albeit it is slightly lower than recent record highs. Strength in the approvals figures are becoming increasingly reliant on the multi-unit sector which tend to be much more volatile than house approvals. With many banks, credit unions and building societies tightening their lending criteria it will be interesting to see over the coming months if this flows into approvals and causes developer confidence to wane.</p>
<p>No matter what happens with approvals over the coming months and years there is a strong pipeline of new construction, much of which is high-rise and will extend out over a number of years.  Furthermore, with population growth slowing we should see a better relationship between housing supply and housing demand.  This is already being seen by the fact that capital city rental rates are increasing at an historic low rate currently.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Rise in unit approvals drives rebound: Cameron Kusher

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<div>Total construction work done declined by a further 1.9 percent in the June 2016 quarter to $47.8 billion, to be 7.9 percent lower over the year. </div>
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<div>The result was driven by another 5.1 percent decline in engineering construction in the quarter - largely mining related - to leave this component down by 24.9 percent year-on-year.</div>
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<div>The building boom, on the other hand, continues apace. </div>
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<div>Although there has been a solid increase in alterations and additions (major renovations) lately, record building activity through this cycle has been overwhelmingly been driven by "other residential" building, specifically units, apartments, and townhouses.  </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Mining cliff now 4 years old</span></strong></div>
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<div>Next month it will be fully four years since the so-termed "mining cliff" began. </div>
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<div>Interestingly engineering construction work done increased in the June 2016 quarter in Queensland, where most of the retracement has already taken place, while activity has actually trended up strongly in New South Wales and Victoria over the past year. </div>
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<div>I've long been warning that Western Australia would have to take its medicine sooner or later, and the reality check kicked in this quarter, with engineering construction crashing down to be some 48 per cent lower than one year ago. </div>
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<div>These figures confirm what has no doubt been obvious on the ground for some time - that the local economy is doing it tough as it passes through this painful slowdown period.</div>
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<div>Engineering construction work done has also fallen substantially in the Northern Territory over the last six quarters, including by a further 28 per cent over the past year, with only the massive Ichthys LNG project is holding this result aloft.</div>
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<div class="separator">The good news is that the decline in engineering construction is now thought to be around 80 percent complete, meaning that sooner or later this will stop being such a drag on the economy. </div>
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<div class="separator">In fact, in New South Wales, Victoria, and now Queensland, it already has. </div>
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<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record building boom continues</span></strong></div>
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<div class="separator">The building boom and its associated multiplier effect has largely benefited the largest capital cities.</div>
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<div>New house building, while still increasing steadily in Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, appears to have peaked for this cycle nationally.</div>
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<div>On the other hand the value of construction work done on attached dwellings was still tracking at record levels in the June quarter. </div>
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<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br>Residential building activity was still running at full pelt through the second quarter of the year, pushing up building costs in cities such as Sydney.<br><br>The Housing Industry Association (HIA) announced today that it believes that new home building will now decline for the next three years, with annual commencements falling from a peak of over 232,500 dwellings to 166,500 in 2018/19, with some downside risks to the forecast.</div>
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<div>The good news is that engineering construction will have already stopped falling significantly over the next 18 months.<br><br>Ichthys aside, most of the project-driven declines have now washed through the figures outside Western Australia.<br><br>Analysts expect to see moderate GDP growth in the second quarter of calendar year 2016 with net exports not making much of a contribution this time around.<br><br>On balance, though, the planned hand-off has been pulled off very well, with Australia now getting close to the bottom of its mining cliff.<br><br>Although resources regions have felt the pain, the largest capital cities have by and large pulled through relatively unscathed. </div>
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<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Record building boom continues: Pete Wargent

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<div>Australia's GDP increased to $1.67 trillion in financial year 2016, measured in seasonally adjusted Chain Volume Measures terms, now tracking at just above $420 billion per quarter.</div>
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<div>Following on from yesterday's post, a quick look here at industry gross value added (GVA).</div>
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<div>Having accounted for just over 5 per cent of industry GVA three decades ago, mining's share has swelled to 8.9 percent as export volumes begin to ramp up.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Finance and insurance also now accounts for 8.9 per cent of industry GVA, up from just 4.9 per cent in 1986.</div>
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<div>You can click on the chart to expand it (or use the touch screen, if you have one of those, of course).</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2016/09/28/GVA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/28/GVA.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>On the other hand, manufacturing is shrinking as a share of the pie, declining from a share of 11.1 percent at the beginning of this chart to just 5.8 percent in 2016.</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Construction wind-down</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest figures show that the contribution of construction to GDP has remained solid at 7.6 per cent, tracking at around $32 billion per quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A decade ago construction was contributing only $13 to $14 billion per quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This suggests that the planned 'hand-off' from resources to residential construction was generally a success between 2012 and 2016. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, this does also mean that as residential construction eventually winds down there will be quite a hole in domestic demand to be plugged by something other than rising mining export volumes.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given the respective skill-sets of all those construction workers, tradies, and project managers, the answer should be: infrastructure and non-residential construction, as I looked at in a bit more detail here. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, the unprecedented stamp duty windfall from Sydney's property boom is already funding a range of infrastructure projects in Sydney and New South Wales. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But what about the gaping gulf left behind in the resources regions? </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Troubling, and this may be leading to an exodus of regional workers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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When construction winds down: Pete Wargent

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
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<div>Less than a month ago, one report suggested Australia might have the 'world's worst management' of the virus, and yet now it has transpired that our results are among the very best in the world, alongside New Zealand. </div>
<div>
<br>Whether that's by luck or by judgement - or most likely a bit of both - may only be known in the fullness of time.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As to how this is impacting real estate searches, there are three main factors to bear in mind.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Firstly, there are now record low mortgage rates for new borrowers, from just over 2 per cent, and these look set to persist for<em> at least </em>three years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Secondly, there's now some potential return for a return of the cobweb effect we saw before the election last year, which may kill new supply, at least in tightly held or blue chip areas. </div>
<div> </div>
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<div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-muLpbzV0YMk/XqeSHzYsCkI/AAAAAAAA1bQ/UiIENyW0HFITZfYPgrsz7LRQGKmXAASWgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/COBWEB.jpg" width="640" height="402" data-original-height="676" data-original-width="1073"></div>
<br>Dwelling starts look set to slump to around a 70-year low, and while plenty of aged listings remain on the market, quality new listings are now rather thin.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>For example, Real Estate reported that there was just one new apartment listing in Coogee over the course of a week, which is exasperating for anyone wanting for take advantage of the slowdown.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And thirdly - a point I've alluded to previously - while Canada, the US, and many developed European and Asian countries have grappled with the spread of the virus, the two countries which are emerging with enhanced reputations as the most desirable to live appear to be New Zealand and Australia. </div>
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<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FCrTsrhS1A8/XqeB4-FGTkI/AAAAAAAA1a0/FNk2h5mGer4YoMzTOD_POJsFl6E9LiKcgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/BB.jpg" width="640" height="448" data-original-height="517" data-original-width="738"></div>
<p><br><span>A 'Lucky Country' indeed.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></span></p>
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Dwelling starts look set to slump to new low: Pete Wargent

Significant slowdown in dwelling commencements this quarter: Cameron Kusher

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<div>After years of under-building from about 2005 forth in Sydney, between July 2012 and April 2016 a vastly improved 163,500 dwelling approvals have been recorded for the Greater Sydney region (inclusive of the Central Coast and the Blue Mountains) and the Illawarra.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As Australia's densest capital city, Sydney approvals today are mostly of the attached or dwelling multi-unit type. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/16/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/08/16/A1.jpg" alt=""> </p>
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<div> </div>
<div>There has been report after report concerned with the record number of units and apartments under construction.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yet to date vacancy rates have barely budged at the city level, and apartment rents have kept rising.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Bottleneck</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The reason for this - and indeed the reason that so many dwellings are under construction - as I've looked at previously <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/making-sense-of-australias-super-duper" target="_blank">here</a>, is that multi-unit dwellings generally take considerably longer to proceed from approval, to commencement, and then to completion (perhaps up to several years from start to finish) than detached houses on greenfield sites, at typically just a matter of months. </div>
<div>As a result, over the year to April 2016, after accounting for demolitions there were just 11,937 net detached dwelling completions, and 18,370 multi-unit dwellings. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Not only has this rate of net completions after accounting for demolitions not been making up for the years of under-building, it has barely even been keeping pace with <em><strong>current</strong></em> annual Greater Sydney population growth of an estimated 83,500 per annum.<br><br>This is particularly so given that so many small apartments are being built, typically housing only two persons (not to mention those apartments left vacant by offshore investors), contributing to a mismatch of supply increasingly characterised by a surfeit of high rise apartment stock.<br><br>It's worth noting that this completions data doesn't easily capture the addition of granny flats, but the point still stands - completions in Sydney just haven't been that high...to date.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2016/08/16/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/08/16/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>From July 2012 to April 2016, after accounting for demolitions, there were net dwelling completions of only 101,300, just 62 percent of the number of dwelling approvals over the same time period. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The population of Greater Sydney increased by somewhere in the region of 307,000 heads over that time, so it's a little wonder that population growth has been absorbing new supply.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This dynamic is finally about to change, though, as the record pipeline of new apartments under construction begins to come online, although the industry being stretched to full capacity will inevitably see construction costs rising henceforth. </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Local Government Authorities (LGAs)</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the LGA level we can see that up to April 2016 there have been few regions that have really been hammering out unduly high net dwelling completions. </div>
<div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/08/16/A1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/16/A1-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
</div>
<div>However, looking at the LGA dwelling approvals figures split out by financial year helps to identify the areas at risk of emerging oversupply (as well as certain upmarket localities such as Manly, Mosman, and Woollahra, where the total stock of dwellings has remained all but fixed).<br><br>
</div>
<div>The City of Sydney LGA covers a large central area of 25 square kilometres and comprises a great many hugely popular suburbs, and in that context its 13,700 approvals from July 2012 represent relatively slim pickings. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, the volume of dwelling approvals - especially for apartments - in certain other areas is abnormally high in historical terms, in turn suggesting an elevated level of risk: Blacktown, Parramatta, the Hills District, Liverpool, and to some extent Camden and Ryde.<br><br>The Canada Bay approvals figures don't really capture the volume of building that has already taken place at Wentworth Point and some surrounding suburbs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/08/16/A3-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/16/A3-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Case study: Parra</span></strong></p>
<div class="separator">I don't quite have the space here (read: can't be bothered) to discuss apartment supply in detail across every Sydney LGA, but a quick look at the Parramatta data is instructive. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Parramatta has seen several years of abnormally high apartment approvals figures, yet until relatively recently net dwelling completions had not lifted too dramatically.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">This rapidly changed in September 2015 as a slew of new projects began to come onstream, and there is plenty more to come in the pipeline, with yet another 3,339 multi-unit dwellings approved over the 12 months to April 2016. Wow-wee!</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/08/16/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/16/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>I took a drive around Parramatta a fortnight or so ago, and the amount of building still underway is really quite eye-popping. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This may result in valuation challenges at settlement for off-the-plan apartment purchases, rising vacancy rates, declining rents, and widespread instances of weak capital growth over the coming years (by which, of course, I mean negative).</div>
<div>
<br><em>Caveat emptor!</em><br><br>Regular readers may recall I spent a joy-filled afternoon driving around looking at a number of apartment construction hotspots recently, and I wrote a bit about it.<br><br>
</div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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