Douglas Driscoll

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
Douglas Driscoll, CEO of real estate group Starr Partners, has announced his top 10 Sydney suburbs to watch in the upcoming year. 
1.       Kensington. Just a stone’s throw away from the CBD and Centennial Park, and with the University of New South Wales on its doorstep, Kensington ticks all the boxes for buyers looking to live near the city and Sydney’s eastern beaches. The long-awaited light rail network, set to open this week, will see interest in the area grow exponentially. I believe it will also become a ‘gateway destination’ – a new cruise ship terminal is flagged for Port Botany and, if this goes ahead, I expect the Government to extend the light rail all the way from neighbouring Kingsford to La Perouse.
2.       Crows Nest. Known by locals as ‘Crowie’, many Sydneysiders dream of living in a suburb with a village-feel, and Crows Nest offers just that, with popular restaurants, trendy bars, a variety of eateries and a family-friendly atmosphere. Sydney’s lockout laws have also provided a boost to Crows Nest night life, which already had the makings of a good entertainment hub. The multi-million-dollar Woolworths refurbishment and the arrival of a rail line in 2024 are other major drawcards that have undoubtedly driven residential interest in the area, especially among young professionals, young families, downsizers and hipsters.
3.       Oran Park. I recently forecast that the Sydney property market will soon witness the continued growth of three “exurbs” – and Oran Park will be one of them. Despite being a relatively new suburb, it has a fairly self-sufficient population with good infrastructure, low housing density and reasonable commute times to the city and is fast developing its own personality. Part of Sydney’s emerging Aerotropolis, and just a short distance from the $35 million Gregory Hills Health and Business Centre, transport links – and jobs – won’t be hard to come by. 
4.       Bellevue Hill. This classy pocket of Sydney will continue to skyrocket in value due to its appeal to families looking for a quieter eastern suburbs enclave that is just 10-minutes from Bondi Beach and even closer to the upscale boutiques and restaurants of Double Bay. With established blocks, leafy streets, a charming café strip and excellent access to employment, it is becoming – and will continue to become – increasingly gentrified. Better yet, the hilltop community also has a comparative absence of traffic – a welcome relief from other parts of Sydney’s east.
5.       Busby. With a median house price of $557,500<a href="x-webdoc://BCC48560-B231-49B0-A1A8-926E10E9CA9E#_ftn1" title="">[1]</a> – $250,000 cheaper than neighbouring Elizabeth Hills<a href="x-webdoc://BCC48560-B231-49B0-A1A8-926E10E9CA9E#_ftn2" title="">[2]</a>, and well within the cut-off for the Government’s First Home Loan Deposit Scheme – Busby is an excellent long-term investment for young professionals and families looking to get their foot on the property ladder. Close to the M5 motorway and with ample bus services and several schools, Busby has everything first home buyers need to make the area their home. Its proximity to Western Sydney University also makes it very attractive for investors.
6.       Summer Hill. Once seen as an industrial node, Summer Hill, I believe, is the inner west’s new hidden gem. There’s soul and character, and everyone loves the charming village environment it has to offer – good schools, a cool café culture, a supermarket, fruit shop, butcher and restaurants all walking distance from the train station. At its heart is The Flour Mill, an old industrial pocket that is being transformed into an amazing new residential community with apartments, shops, cafés and parklands. Rarely do you get a suburb that is both so close to the city and synonymous with family living.
7.       Merrylands. It shouldn’t be surprising that Merrylands has returned to my list this year, and I stand by what I said about it a couple of years ago: it has some of Sydney’s best value for money freestanding dwellings. The more the Cumberland Council spends on the Merrylands town centre, the better it will become. Should it go ahead, a $292 million masterplan to redevelop Merrylands RSL will include more than 400 apartments and over three sleek, high-rise buildings, drawing European-style eateries and trendy alleyways to the area. It will only be a matter of time before the suburb emerges from the shadow of its neighbour, Parramatta.
8.       Pagewood. Arguably one of Sydney’s most overlooked south-eastern suburbs, Pagewood, like we’ve seen with Mascot, Rosebery and sections of Botany, is about to undergo a major transformation. Pagewood Green, next to Westfield Eastgardens, and the former Holden manufacturing site are two previous industrial sites under development. With a median house price $220,000-$440,000<a href="x-webdoc://BCC48560-B231-49B0-A1A8-926E10E9CA9E#_ftn3" title="">[3]</a> cheaper than nearby Matraville and Maroubra, Pagewood is a coveted area for buyers in the market for a unit.
9.       Blaxland. Nestled at the foot of the Blue Mountains, Blaxland has a genuine country feel despite being just eight minutes from the M4 motorway, and less than 10 minutes from the larger neighbouring suburbs of Penrith and Emu Plains. While this area has become part of Sydney’s greater west, large family homes are available for well under $1m and on large blocks with plenty of greenery. Young professionals or couples looking for a better quality of life and wanting to get more for their money should seriously be considering investing here.
10.   Lalor Park. For buyers looking within a 20-30 kilometre radius of the CBD, Lalor Park, where the median house price is $611,000,<a href="x-webdoc://BCC48560-B231-49B0-A1A8-926E10E9CA9E#_ftn4" title="">[4]</a> is one of the most affordable. I see it really taking off among first-home buyers. As the suburb has older homes, they can expect to get a three-bedroom, one-bathroom house on a decent block for about $600,000 to $650,000. Its great community feel is also a major catch, drawing crowds to its monthly Community Hub Markets and the Lalor Park Community Gardens hosting frequent picnics and other events.
Douglas Driscoll is the CEO of real estate group <a href="http://www.starrpartners.com.au/" target="_blank">Starr Partners</a>.
 
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Kensington leads Sydney real estate suburbs to watch in 2020: Doug Driscoll

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EXPERT OBSERVER
In 2020, there will be several political and economic factors that will continue to impact Sydney’s property market. 
Douglas reveals his 12 property market forecasts for 2020:
1.       Property owners will continue to sit on their hands. Listings will continue to be at relatively low levels as a significant proportion of property owners will wait and ‘time the market’ until they are certain prices have peaked again. For this reason, Sydney property buyers might be rewarded with more stock at the end of 2020. Once this happens, prices will creep closer to their early 2017 levels – though won’t quite reach them.
2.       A stampede of first home buyers in January. The landscape in 2020 is set to change again for first home buyers: further financial stimulus will be introduced to assist them, with the Morrison Government’s First Home Loan Deposit Scheme commencing on 1 January. While I stand by my argument that this was a pre-election gimmick by the Coalition Government to win votes, it will undoubtedly lead to an immediate stampede of first home buyer numbers in the first few weeks of next year. This is a ‘first-in, best-dressed’ scenario, so I won’t be surprised to see first home buyer numbers slow once these spots are filled.
3.       Property prices to increase 5-10 per cent. With relatively low property stock continuing alongside increased buyer interest, house prices will rise between five and 10 per cent next year, depending on the suburb – if the political and economic environment remains stable. Only in August, CoreLogic reported that the number of properties listed for sale were at their lowest levels since 2010. Price rises might exceed 10 per cent if the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates again – as some are currently forecasting for the near future. Finally, as the banks now have their lending restrictions in place, I’m not expecting the bank regulator APRA to intervene in the short-to-medium term.
4.       Average days on market to fall. The imbalance between supply (low) and demand (high) will lead to shorter property marketing campaigns in 2020. Already in Sydney, the median days on market has shortened by seven days between August and September this year and will continue to fall.<a href="x-webdoc://23020B94-EAC9-488D-8186-41D6232A311B#_ftn2" title=""> </a>
5.       Build quality to remain in the spotlight. Last year’s Opal Tower crisis and this year’s Mascot Towers event has heightened the spotlight on build quality. This will continue in 2020, as the State Government begins to implement the first tranche of its building reforms. But as these reforms will only apply to buildings yet to be constructed, the problem of build quality will continue to make headlines. The rush to get apartments built and sold in the housing boom meant shortcuts may have been taken. Although there are rogue developers who do cut corners, more often than not, the vast majority are reputable and are being compliant. The problem is we’re chastising them, when maybe we should be looking more closely at building regulations. There are significant changes ahead to increase compliance and enforcement in the building and construction industry and, I predict, even talks of a possible royal commission in 2020.
6.       Houses will continue shrinking. Australians used to have some of the biggest free-standing houses in the world, but now they are starting to shrink: the average size of a new house built in Australia was 228.8m² in 2018-19, down from 231.8m² in 2017-18 – which is the smallest since 2001-02. Sydney’s geographic limitations allow it to expand north-west and south-west only, meaning homes will become smaller in an effort to house more dwellings. Practicality has also crept in. As a nation, we’re not cooking as much as we once were, and so the sizes of our kitchens are also getting smaller. With apps like Deliveroo and UberEATS at our fingertips, the focus is much less on cooking than it is on convenience.   
7.       Developers will start to create homes suited to specific demographics, opposed to the cookie-cutter approach of the investor boom. With apartments accounting for roughly one-third of all new dwellings approved for construction in Australia from 2014 to 2018, it’s no surprise that developers mastered a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach. It was easy for them to market off-the-plan properties months before building work commenced and keep them as fuss-free as possible; mainly 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom, ‘no frills’ units.With many more millennials and downsizers entering the market, however, more developers have realised that they must adopt new configurations to suit the needs of a changing demographic. Downsizers, for example, are seeking terrace houses or single-story villas that offer low-maintenance lifestyles.
8.       Australians re-mortgaging in record numbers. Many Sydney mortgagees will take advantage of the low interest rate environment in 2020. With the lending environment becoming more competitive, and borrowers more open to smaller lenders, we’ll also see more mortgagees shopping around and switching lenders to secure a better rate. Even a quarter of a percent saving on a mortgage rate can equate to thousands of dollars over the life cycle of a loan. As always, I recommend mortgage holders speak to an independent broker, as they have full access to the market and are impartial.
9.       Exurbs will grow around Sydney. Exurbs are prosperous areas outside, or on the fringe of, a city’s metropolitan area. They are fairly self-sufficient population ecosystems in their own right and have good infrastructure and amenities. In Greater Western Sydney, these are areas such as Box Hill in the north west and Oran Park and Menangle in the south west. I’m expecting a greater number of exurbs around Sydney, and existing exurbs to enjoy continued growth.
10.   More landlords considering multiple occupation. A house in multiple occupation (HMO), or a house of multiple occupancy, is a UK-coined term that describes residential properties where ‘common areas’ exist and are shared by more than three people not from the one household (for example, a family) – and it’s an emerging trend here in Australia. In areas of Sydney, particularly around its universities, more young people are choosing to live in such a manner and I’m seeing landlords looking to adapt their properties for this purpose. This requires them to comply with additional regulations for the management and health and safety of the property and its occupants.
11.   British and Hong Kong residents will look to invest here because of political volatility and the weak Australian dollar. In light of Brexit and Hong Kong’s political crisis and a weak Australian dollar, a proportion of anti-Brexiteers and Hong Kong residents will look to the Australian property market as a safehaven. However, China’s Supreme Court this year introduced strict penalties for its citizens transferring money out of the country to buy property overseas, so unless Hong Kong residents are incredibly ‘creative’ they will face barriers to investing in property here.
12.   Stamp duty to be reviewed. Stamp duty is a cash cow for the NSW Government: In the 2016-17 financial year, it generated them a whopping $8 billion. However, as a result of the recent property market slump, the NSW Treasury has since suffered a fall in stamp duty revenue – revenue was $7.4 billion in 2018-19 and $6.9 billion in 2019-20.<a href="x-webdoc://23020B94-EAC9-488D-8186-41D6232A311B#_ftn7" title="">[7]</a> With property stock levels predicted to remain low next year, it’s in the interests of the State Government to conduct a full review of its stamp duty model, and I predict these conversations will play a key role in State politics in 2020.
Douglas Driscoll is CEO of real estate group Starr<a href="https://www.starrpartners.com.au/"> </a>Partners.
 
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Sydney property market predictions for 2020: Doug Driscoll

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
Douglas Driscoll, CEO of real estate group Starr Partners, has announced his anticipated top 10 Sydney suburbs to watch in the upcoming year. 
1.       Eveleigh. Billed to become Australia’s Silicon Valley, Eveleigh, next to Redfern, is a hip inner-city suburb to keep an eye on. If the house price growth in San Francisco’s tech epicentre is anything to go by, the new technology and innovation project, which will bring more jobs and start-ups to the area, will in turn raise Eveleigh’s prices. With lots of new apartment developments, the Carriageworks arts centre, cafes, good public transport, and only a short walk to the city, Surry Hills and Newtown, Eveleigh is the ideal suburb for young professionals, hipsters and young families.
2.       Waterloo. First Surry Hills, then Redfern, now Waterloo is next in line to become one of Sydney’s reborn residential hotspots. Close to parks, the airport, and Sydney CBD, Waterloo is undergoing a major skyline transformation with a wave of new apartments. Danks Street is buzzing with galleries, shops and a booming dining scene. A metro line is being discussed, but Green Square and a bus network provide public transport options.
3.       Maroubra. It once had a reputation as an edgy suburb, sensationalised through documentaries, but Maroubra is nowhere near as menacing as its fictitious reputation. It still offers relatively affordable prices compared with Sydney’s eastern beaches. As it continues to gentrify, Maroubra, like Bondi and Coogee, will continue to grow as a sought-after beachside suburb.
4.       Brookvale. Many Sydney-siders dream of living nearby the beach, and Brookvale provides an affordable option, with average house prices $150,000-$180,000 cheaper than neighbouring Dee Why and Allambie Heights. A masterplan to turn Brookvale into a vibrant precinct is on the cards, which will add bars, cafes and restaurants as well as residential opportunities to the area. Adding to the infrastructure is the B-line bus network connecting residents to the city, the recently opened Northern Beaches Hospital and the planned Beaches Link. The Northern Beaches has often been viewed as a fickle market, but for the here and now it is in demand – and becoming more popular.
5.       Baulkham Hills. Often seen as a poor relation to neighbouring Castle Hill or Bella Vista, family-centric Baulkham Hills is gentrifying and coming into its own. Only 20 per cent of the suburb is rented, which is good news for owner-occupiers, it also means the market is not oversaturated for investors. While we have already seen investor activity in the area, the multibillion-dollar Sydney Metro Northwest rail line, set to open early next year, will cause a ripple effect in Baulkham Hills. With the new train station, ample buses, and M2 Motorway off-ramp, transport links are not hard to come by.
6.       Auburn. As Sydney grows, its boundaries become blurred and redefined. Once considered in the western Sydney heartland, Auburn is now being absorbed into the inner west. It is a cultural melting pot that wears its multiculturalism like a badge of honour. The family-owned restaurants offering a range of cuisines is a foodie drawcard, and nature lovers can take a stroll through the Botanical Gardens. Better yet, properties are cheaper than those in neighbouring suburbs such as Lidcombe and Strathfield. 
7.       Millers Point. I see Millers Point really taking off. Following the completion of the controversial sell-off of public housing, I do believe a sense of community will continue to grow in this suburb. Equidistant between Barangaroo and the CBD, it is in a prime location but is still surprisingly quiet. This suburb is the next Surry Hills or Paddington; it has heritage terraces, lively pubs, and a strong community-feel. With change happening all along that part of the harbour foreshore, Millers Point it will continue to grow in popularity.
8.       Castle Cove. One of Sydney’s best kept secrets, Castle Cove is a charming suburb on the foreshore of middle harbour. Although properties are tightly held, most are detached, on decent plots and have elevated views – some of the most interesting in Sydney. Despite being only 10kms from the CBD, Castle Cove is leafy, green and well connected by bus. Its charm is that it does not have major supermarkets and shopping centres, but residents have an abundance of great eateries, cafes and grocery stores. With a public school and a golf course, Castle Cove is solitude without isolation.
9.       Breakfast Point. With beautiful harbourside walking tracks and hipster cafes, Breakfast Point is a trendy inner west suburb that is tantamount to a beach lifestyle. Once a gasworks, there are now a lot of well-designed masterplanned communities, which makes it attractive for young families and people downsizing. A direct bus line takes commuters to Sydney CBD, or they can catch a ferry from nearby Cabarita wharf.
10.   Riverstone. This nascent suburb has been on my radar for a while, but it has been a slow burner. Billions have been spent in the area on masterplanned developments and infrastructure projects, and the metamorphosis is set to continue. Blacktown City Council recently announced strategic plans for a new town centre, retail and commercial developments, and public spaces. 
Douglas Driscoll is the CEO of real estate group Starr Partners. 
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Sydney suburbs to watch in 2019: Doug Driscoll

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Labor’s negative gearing plans will disadvantage some first-home buyers and lower-income Aussies who are property investors working hard to get ahead. 
A more effective policy would be to means-test investor tax subsidies, and cap the number of properties that can be negatively geared. 
Labor’s plans to limit negative gearing to new housing and halving the capital gains tax concession will do little to help this hardworking market segment.
Labor has wrongly suggested that all investors are higher-income earners. Through the Starr Partners network of 31 real estate offices, he has learned that many investors are also first home buyers and lower-income Aussies.
I’m hearing from agents and brokers across markets popular with first home buyers, that approximately 30-35 per cent are rentvesting. 
They are often purchasing a property, living in it for six to 12 months, then putting it on the rental market. 
Labor is trying to help middle- and working-class families, but let’s not forget that many nurses, teachers, and policemen are also purchasing investment properties – they make up the investor profile, too. The Opposition’s proposed policy could inadvertently disadvantage many of the people it is trying to help.
To make the Australian dream of purchasing a home true for all Australians, there are more effective strategies that would appease investors and nurture first home buyers. From what I can tell, this policy is a regurgitation of Labor’s previous election manifesto. 
What puzzles me most is that if it didn’t curry favour in the lead up to the last election when investors made up the majority of the market, then how is it going to garner support now that their numbers have decreased considerably. House prices are cooling, which shows the government’s macroprudential measures are working, but I agree more could still be done.
Instead of limiting negative gearing, as Labor has suggested, Aussies that want to claim tax subsidies could be means tested. This would ensure that higher-income earners are not benefitting the most, and tip the balance in favour of those that need the subsidies the most. Alternatively, capping the volume of properties an investor can negatively gear will reduce the number of negatively geared properties, without limiting it to a subset of homes. 
Any existing properties need to be grandfathered. Labor has got it right to grandfather existing investment properties, a policy I strongly stand by. Without this, it could lead to property Armageddon.
Doug Driscoll is the CEO of Starr Partners.
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Labor’s negative gearing policies are flawed: Doug Driscoll

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<div>Douglas Driscoll CEO of Starr Partners estimates there are likely further fall in property prices, as some areas cool, but firmly believes the market will not crash.</div>
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<div>He has been seeing a slowdown in the market in some areas as is to be expected, but other areas are still doing extremely well, and he believes reports of a crash are being blow out of proportion.</div>
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<div>Mr Driscoll said that “There has been talk of the market slowing, but 4.4 per cent over 12 months isn’t much and if I were being cynical, it’s not inconceivable that property prices might fall another 10 per cent."</div>
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<div>"The ingredients just aren’t there for a market crash, Whether they’re buying or selling, owner occupiers shouldn’t necessarily hold off."</div>
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<div>"Fearmongering certainly doesn’t help and ultimately creates a wait-and-see mentality”, commented Mr Driscoll.</div>
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<div>Douglas says that a crash simply wont happen because of a number of factors.</div>
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<div>Housing stock levels are strong, interest rates are low, and it is only a matter of time before they rise.</div>
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<div>APRA has relaxed measures for investors, immigration levels are high and the skilled workers that are arriving will want to get their foot on the property ladder.</div>
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<div>He added that he believes the current fear-mongering is more about the potential lack of profits that property might deliver over the next few years.</div>
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<div>John McGrath agrees the <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/85758-sydney-and-melbourne-property-markets-won-t-crash-john-mcgrath" target="_blank">Sydney and Melbourne property markets won't crash in 2018</a>.</div>
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Douglas Driscoll

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