David Airey

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This article is a response to Terry Ryder's piece '<a href="/expert-insights/41414-caution-inhaling-real-estate-agent-s-words-may-be-dangerous-to-your-financial-health-terry-ryder" target="_blank">Caution - inhaling real estate agent's words may be dangerous to your financial health'</a>.
There is no conspiracy in REIWA market commentary. We pride ourselves in ‘telling it like it is’, contrary to the cynical perception that many members of the public often have towards agents.
The fact is the Western Australian property market is very cyclical (usually counter-cyclical to the east coast), and very closely linked to the fortunes of the mining and resources sector. That has taken a dive, with as many as 25,000 jobs having gone in the last year.
After solid market growth through 2005 – 2007, market correction and the global financial crisis in 2008, followed by full market recovery in 2009, the WA housing market has bumped along for the last five years with modest growth and patchy sub-markets. First home buyers have been very active.
However, we are now facing a year in which our population growth rate is slowing, consumer sentiment is weak, job losses continue, people are moving house less often and a significant number of new dwellings are coming to market or planned for next year.
There are some 24,000 homes under construction, of which 8,300 are multi-residential. While this level of output is not so unusual, it has not previously occurred at a time when population growth was slowing. There is increasing concern about how this oversupply will impact across all markets as it comes to fruition.
Listings for both sales and rentals have spiked and continue to climb. Days on market have stretched out to 63 and the number of vendors discounting has increased to 57% with the average discount climbing to almost 6%.
The message we are hearing loudly and clearly from our agents and property managers is that many sellers and owners have unrealistic expectations and seem to have a mind-set that views that market as unchanged from a few years ago. This is wrong.
REIWA believes it has an obligation to advise the public about changing market conditions if sellers and owners want to achieve the best asking price or rental return and in a realistic time frame.
This is not to suggest that people shouldn’t buy or invest in the Perth market; far from it. But engaging in the market requires good research, good timing, realistic expectations and a long-term outlook. And it must be said that some sub-markets and regional centres are doing much better than Perth overall.  
Current indicators point to a weaker market in 2015 across our metropolitan area for the reasons outlined above. Growth will be negligible. Sellers and landlords will find it a more challenging year and we don’t resile from speaking this truth.
It will be interesting to revisit this topic in the December quarter, and I invite Mr Terry Ryder to return to this column about REIWA and Perth later in the year. I am confident our commentary will be proved accurate and prescient. 
David Airey is president of <a href="https://reiwa.com.au/" target="_blank">REIWA</a>.
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There is no conspiracy in REIWA market commentary: David Airey

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If you’re familiar with the Perth property market, you’d be aware that the ‘spring selling season’ is considered the most active selling period of the year. 
However this isn’t entirely accurate.
While it’s true there is generally a surge of activity during spring, there is a misconception that September is the start of the boom period, when in fact data suggests sales don’t pick up until October.
Closer analysis of the spring selling season indicates that September is actually the Achilles heel of the notional spring selling period.
There has only been one occasion since 1994 – September 2008 – that we actually saw a lift, every other September in the past 20 years has actually seen sales fall.
Having one less selling day than July, August and October is one theory behind why there is traditionally a drop in September, another is the long weekend that tends to fall during the month, and a case could also be made that with September being the last month for many sporting codes, weekends are taken up with finals instead of home inspections.
The impact these factors have on overall activity cannot be officially measured, but it’s reasonable to suggest they influence activity.
When we really look at it, the spring selling season is confined to just October and November as we then experience a fall away in activity in December as we approach the festive season.
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Perth's spring selling myth

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In July, economists Ryan Fox and Peter Tulip delivered a paper for The Reserve Bank which looked at the broad question: is Australian housing overvalued?
It found that Perth residents who bought a property during the 2005-2007 boom would have to hold it for three decades before the investment worked out cheaper than renting for the same period.
The RBA research also revealed that the surge in prices over the past decade had made renting more economically sound than buying.
Value equation
Although the researchers found long-term that prices were generally “fair value”, they also looked at whether people were better off buying or renting and discovered that the boom of seven years ago had significantly changed the equation.
They took into account all the costs of buying and running a house, including interest rates and depreciation, and the expected increase in value home owners hoped to get on their property.
Between 1955 and 2014, owning a home was less expensive than renting within about eight years. But over the past decade when prices in Perth more than doubled, those who bought have gone backwards relative to those who decided to rent.
Research data
“If real appreciation over the previous 10 years is used as a guide, buying is less expensive than renting only with extremely long expected tenure – in excess of 30 years,” the researchers found.
“Consistent with conventional wisdom, households expecting to move again in a few years time are better off renting, unless they believe they can sell the property for an unusually large capital gain.”
House prices in Perth have climbed 120% since early 2004 and rents have climbed 81%.
Capital gains since the start of this year have slowed a little, with preliminary REIWA data showing the metropolitan median price in Perth down by one per cent in the June quarter and up by a modest 3.8%t on the same time last year.
Advantage
The main benefit with buying is the long-term capital growth that comes from owning a quality asset which is tax free, given the absence of capital gains tax on the family home.
Home ownership is also a huge advantage in retirement when most people have diminished earning capacity and survive on low and fixed incomes, such as the pension.
Australian research shows that pensioners who don’t own their home can spend up to 60% on their income on rent, pushing them into housing poverty.
So while only very long-term home ownership is the more affordable strategy, it provides the best outcome for people in their latter years.
Personal benefits
Another benefit of buying over renting was the ability to paint, decorate and renovate as you like, as well as shaping the garden.
There are some personal and psychological benefits to buying that go beyond money.
It’s also a lifestyle improvement for many people and can provide a sense of security that isn’t always possible in the rental system.
In spite of the recent report from the RBA, I don’t know many people who would strongly agree with the findings.
I think most tenants aspire to home ownership and I can’t see that changing much for the time-being.
While it’s true that long-term renting is far more common through Europe and the US, I think social, cultural and economic conditions are different enough in Australia to still nurture the strong desire for home ownership among those who can secure a mortgage.
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The benefits of home ownership extend far beyond capital growth

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About one out of every four households in Western Australia is a rental property, representing approximately 200,000 dwellings.
The proportion of renters has been reasonably steady at around 28% of all households for over a decade, although there is a change occurring in the mix of private and public housing tenants with the proportion of private sector tenants growing.
Most rental properties are located in the inner suburbs. For example, over 75% of all metropolitan rental properties are located within a 15 kilometre radius of the CBD.
Suburbs with the highest concentration include <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">East Perth</a>, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer">Karawara</a>, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">West Perth</a>, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">Northbridge</a>, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">Highgate</a>, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">Bentley</a>, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">Glendalough</a> and <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">Victoria Park</a>. Rental properties can account for up to 70% of all dwellings in these areas.
Surprisingly, most tenants live in houses and not flats or units. Census result continue to show that up to 60% of tenants live in traditional houses, although it’s true that around half of all strata dwellings exist as rental properties.
In WA the most common age group for renters is between 20 and 34. Typically, these are people in transition to home ownership. Not surprisingly then, the most common home ownership and buying age group is around 34 to 44.
Most tenants prefer a short lease, with the more common lease being six months. Tenants clearly like the flexibility of a short lease, however more than half of all such leases are renewed for a further six months when the initial lease expires.
The median rent for accommodation in Perth is now $450 per week if you include units, apartments, villas and houses in the equation. Houses alone are generally higher with a median of around $460 per week.
Darwin remains the most expensive capital with houses renting for around $650 per week, while Canberra and Sydney are similar to Perth at around $450. Adelaide is the cheapest at $330 per week.
The average rent for three bedroom homes across all eight capitals is around $405 per week. Seen in this context, Perth is about 15% above the overall Australian rental average for a house.
However, rents in Perth have been slowly coming down since 2013 with the median weekly rent dropping $25 from $475 around this time last year.
This is due to a slow-down in population growth but also from large numbers of renters having taken advantage of very low interest rates to buy a home of their own, enabling them to leave the rental system.
This in turn freed up more properties for rent and is a key reason why Perth’s current vacancy rate is now a third higher than average, sitting at 4% or 5,600 properties.
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A look at Perth’s rental market

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Rents in metropolitan Perth dropped further in recent months, down by $10 per week this year following a $10 drop towards the end of last year. The median rent is now $450 per week across city suburbs.
REIWA data shows this typically breaks down to around $460 per week for a house and $440 for a unit or apartment.
Our data also shows the vacancy rate across Perth remains high at around 4%, due largely to the economic and population slow down. It has also been boosted by many tenants having left the rental system to buy a home of their own.
The long term equilibrium for vacancy rate across Perth is 3%, so the current rate is around one third higher than it might ideally be.
Our figures show there are around 5,000 metropolitan rental properties on the market which is 56% more than the same time last year.
As the number of rental properties swell and overall rents come down, the number of people breaking their lease to find a different property has jumped significantly.
The changed conditions mean that some people are breaking leases to move into a more affordable dwelling, a larger premises or maybe a home in a much better location to suit their needs.
These outcomes are understandable and REIWA property managers are experiencing a significant increase in the number of enquiries from both tenants and property owners asking about the costs involved in breaking a lease.
Tenants need to understand that a lease is essentially a contract between two parties and leaving the premises before the agreed termination date is a breach of that contract.
Under the Residential Tenancies Act, the property owner is entitled to be ‘no worse off’ as a result of any breach by the tenant. As such, they can claim from the tenant any costs, such as rent until the premises are re-let or the original period expires, the charges for advertising for a new tenant and any unused portion of the letting fee.
These claims could add up to several thousand dollars billed against the outgoing tenant, particularly if the premises they vacate takes a while to secure a new tenant. This can be devastating to someone who has broken their lease, started renting a new property and is now effectively paying rent on two places, one of which is empty.
It’s very important therefore, that if a tenant is thinking of breaking their lease for whatever reason, that they talk to the property manager about the potential costs so they can make a considered decision about timing and budget.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://reiwa.com.au/Faq/Pages/Feature.aspx" target="_parent">reiwa.com</a>.
Image courtesy of <a href="https://www.seniorliving.org/" rel="nofollow" data-rapid_p="22">SeniorLiving.Org</a>/<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/" target="_blank">Creative Commons</a>.
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Don’t break your bank by breaking your lease

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In 2007, as the WA's extraordinary property boom reached its peak, then Treasurer Eric Ripper lifted the stamp duty threshold for first home buyers to $500,000.
As the median house price jumped, housing affordability became more difficult and the entry costs to first home buyers in particular became a real impediment. Chief among those costs was several thousand dollars in stamp duty, given that first time buyers were then typically purchasing dwellings at around $300,000.
That policy move by the Carpenter government to effectively abolish stamp duty for the majority of first home buyers has proved over intervening years to be a tremendous success. They have flourished in WA, helped along by low interest rates, the first home buyers grant, plenty of jobs and a robust state economy. In recent years first time buyers often reached more than 30% of the overall market, dwarfing the experience on the east coast.
First home buyer activity in particular has been very strong but is now trending downwards at a worrying rate. Changing policy settings at this time would be very unhelpful and a false economy.
Governments tend to underestimate the importance of first home buyers to the property market and economy in general. Not only do first home buyers take stock out of the market, they facilitate the property seller to trade-up, generating additional revenue from stamp duty as well as other business activity.
The new-home building markets also benefit as economic activity is increased through growth in supply chain business. WA ought not make the same mistake as NSW, which axed the first home buyer duty concession, or Victoria where first home buyer grants were greatly reduced. The clear evidence from these states is that first home buyer activity subsequently collapsed and has not recovered.
While REIWA understands the need for government to fund services and supply infrastructure, my concern is for the overall health and sustainability of the WA housing market at a precarious time. Current REIWA data supported by Landgate figures indicates a market downturn is likely for the second half of 2014.
Evidence from the March quarter shows a drop in sales numbers of around 6% compared to the same quarter in 2013. Listings for sale have risen to the highest level since December 2012 and rental listings are at a seven year high, with the vacancy rate now over 4% for the first time since 2010. Investors are scarce and first home buyers are dropping away. It’s time to recognise that stamp duty on property as a means to raise revenue is clumsy, inefficient and outdated.
Typical stamp duty on a median priced home in Perth is now $20,000. Bracket creep alone has pushed this up by $4,280 over the last five years.
REIWA calls on the government to have a serious look at broadening the land tax base to all property owners with the view to abolishing stamp duty altogether.
The benefit to government is steady, predictable revenue income based on land ownership, rather than unpredictable and volatile revenue income based on sales activity. The benefit to property owners is the simplicity of a modest, annual land tax as opposed to ‘bill shock’, when hit with a huge stamp duty tax in the tens of thousands when they transact.
In some cases stamp duty is so prohibitive to potential buyers that they stay put, jamming the market and not allowing established homes to flow into the first home buyer pool. A broad-based land tax was proposed by the Henry Tax Review and has merit. It has since been adopted by the ACT, which will phase it in over 20 years so it does not disrupt the market and will effectively be revenue neutral.
It’s time for a mature discussion around this proposal with the aim of creating a long-term plan for a better system of property taxes. One that’s not at the mercy of an anxious treasurer every financial year.
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Land tax for all should replace stamp duty for some

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Where is that rose bush from the courtyard? What happened to the mirror in the bathroom? Where did the dishwasher go? Wasn’t there a hose reel on the side of the garden shed?
These things were there when they signed the offer to buy and they assumed would be staying with the house as part of the purchase.
So, where exactly do buyers stand legally in this situation of missing items?
Thankfully, the law is on their side but it comes down to proper process. It’s about making sure the responsibilities of the seller have been met and that the paperwork was thorough at the time of signing the contract to purchase.
The seller has an obligation to advise the real estate agent if anything is excluded from the sale. This should be reflected in the contract.
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Owners have the right to exclude some things from a sale if they choose, but it’s important this is made clear at the beginning of the process.
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Usually, anything deemed to be a fixture will stay. This generally includes things that are nailed, screwed or otherwise fixed such as mirrors, floor coverings, curtains, towel racks, television aerials, light fittings and ceiling fans. But it also includes plants, paving slabs and garden sheds.
REIWA recommends that sellers fill out a disclosure statement when they offer a place for sale and REIWA agents have these available. They are not compulsory but they do give the agent a written record of exactly what is being sold and if anything is being removed by the outgoing owner.
Owners have the right to exclude some things from a sale if they choose, but it’s important this is made clear at the beginning of the process.
In the standard REIWA contract for the sale of land, it is a condition that the seller warrants ‘the property will be in the same state and condition it was in immediately before the contract date.’
If a seller wants to keep the dishwasher or a sentimental rose bush for example, that’s permissible so long as it’s properly declared to potential purchasers.
Buyers should always ask if anything is being excluded in a sale and, provided the selling agent has been correctly advised by the owner, there will be no misunderstandings.
Most often when things are removed after a sale it’s due to ignorance of the law by the outgoing owner and can usually be quickly remedied by the agent.
However, if buyers find this isn’t the case, that both they and the agent were not properly advised and the seller is being difficult, then buyers can take the matter to the local court to seek compensation for missing items.
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Can the seller take items after the sale?

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There is a lot of pressure on the Barnett government to cut costs and raise revenue in the state budget this May.
Those of us who work in the property sector are particularly concerned that property taxes might again be targeted. In last year’s budget the government increased land tax by 12.5%.
This year it might be very tempting for the Treasurer to cast his net more widely by increasing stamp duty across the board for all buyers as well as scrapping the stamp duty exemption for first home buyers.
The Real Estate Institute of Western Australia has cautioned the state Treasurer against considering such moves. The property market in WA is only just stabilizing after several volatile years and current REIWA data indicates a market downturn for the second half of this year.
It’s critical that current policy settings remain in place and property taxes are not increased, distorting a fragile market.
Typical stamp duty on a median priced home in Perth is now $20,000. Bracket creep alone has pushed this up by $4,280 over the last five years.
The stamp duty exemption for first home buyers was raised to homes under $500,000 by the Labor government in 2007 and along with the first home owners grant has been extraordinary successful at nurturing the market.
Cost of living and housing affordability is much tougher in WA than other states, but removing the stamp duty impost from first home buyers saves most of them around $14,000 and helps them into a home of their own.
<blockquote>
It’s critical that current policy settings remain in place and property taxes are not increased, distorting a fragile market.
</blockquote>
In combination with low interest rates, first home buyers have flourished in WA but the signs are that they are now trending downwards and it would be devastating if they soon get hit with stamp duty.
Getting rid of first home buyer relief or increasing stamp duty across the board would also hit the housing construction sector through the increased cost of land.
The clear evidence from NSW, which recently scrapped its tax concessions for first home buyers, is that first home buyer activity collapsed and hasn’t recovered.
It has been a similar experience in Victoria where other concessions for first home buyers were removed or diminished.
First home buyers are critical to the overall health of the property market because they help nurture construction and facilitate the trade-up market.
Data from the Office of State Revenue show activity by first home buyers has been falling for several months, slipping from 1,974 applications in July last year to 1,540 in March.
For a sustainable, affordable housing market, it’s terribly important there is no rise in stamp duty for all buyers or that tax relief for first time buyers is abolished.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://reiwa.com/" target="_blank">reiwa.com</a>.
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The WA budget's threat to first home buyers

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If you’re thinking about buying an investment property before the end of this financial year then you have just three months to go.
While purchasing property should never be rushed, if you’re considering the purchase of an investment property before 30 June, you should be sorting out your finances and looking at suitable properties now. This is particularly the case for first time investors.
More seasoned investors might choose to leave it to the last minute and hurry their purchase before 30 June simply as a strategy to claim the allowable tax deductions associated with the investment during this tax period.
Most people, however, wouldn’t be inclined to do that because it could mean that as a buyer they have not had adequate time to properly research the market in terms of price, rental returns, availability of stock, etc.
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There is no such thing as 'the best place to invest', what matters most is that you follow the best ways to invest.
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Experienced investors tend to always keep an eye on the market and allow themselves plenty of time to select the best possible property for their needs, expectations and budget.
If you’re a first time investor and perhaps been thinking about buying for a while, then now is the time to be talking to professional financial advisers about your aspirations and opportunities.
You should also be considering the areas in which to invest and plan to inspect suitable properties.
Remember to factor state government stamp duty into your purchase costs and to keep a clear record of this. When you sell the property in the future the stamp duty along with some other costs, such as agent’s and settlement fees, are tax deductible.
For full details on this read the information on <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/Individuals/Income-and-deductions/In-detail/Investments,-including-rental-properties/Rental-property-expenses/" target="_blank">rental properties at the Australian Tax Office</a> website.
I am often asked by members of the public to give them a tip as to, “the best place to invest.”
There is no simple answer to this, it depends entirely on your budget and what you want your investment property to do for you.
Are you focused on rental returns, capital growth, land prices, development opportunities or tax deductions? Do you have cash or need finance? How long do you intend to hold this investment?
There is no such thing as 'the best place to invest', what matters most is that you follow the best ways to invest.
That means getting competent financial advice from professionals to determine your budget and loan and then talk to some agents about opportunities in the areas that suit your portfolio plan.
If you are pressed for time but want to purchase before 30 June, or just lack confidence as a prospective investor, then you may want to consider engaging the services of a buyer’s agent to help you through the process with expert guidance and suggestions.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://reiwa.com/" target="_blank">reiwa.com</a>.
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Investors need to make their move before 30 June

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It appears that investors may still be struggling in Perth, with Real Estate Institute of Western Australia (REIWA) figures showing a slowdown in sales and a lift in the rental vacancy rate.
REIWA president, David Airey, said that the median house price has increased from $546,000 in the December quarter to $550,000 in March, however this $4,000 lift is unlikely to do much to improve the concerns of investors in the state.
“There was little change in overall sales turnover for the quarter, down by only 2%, however, it’s noteworthy that the March quarter was down by about 6% on the same period last year,” Airey said.
Noting it had been a ‘choppy’ quarter for sales, he said there had been a steady decline in recent weeks as more properties were put on the market for sale.
The biggest slide was seen in the City of Vincent, south east segments of the City of Stirling and Gosnells and Melville areas.
Across Perth, and areas such as Fremantle, Rockingham and northern Joondalup, sales have, in fact, been lifting. Despite this, listings rise and are now at their highest level since December 2012.
This may mean a good time to get in for prospective home buyers, with more choice, however it does make selling prospects somewhat lacklustre.
Similarly, landlords won’t be too impressed with the most recent vacancy rate statistics – with the highest vacancy rate seen in the past four years. It has now lifted to 4.1% for the rate for the three months to February. The last time it was higher was the winter of 2010’s 4.3%.
“It’s now a tenants’ market with much more stock available and median rent coming down a little. It has dropped $15 per week in the last nine months and I anticipate a further fall in the median weekly rent to show up in the data over the next few weeks,” Airey said, pointing to around 5,000 rental properties on the market.
This is an incredible 56% up on the same time last year.
“The March quarter normally experiences a tightening in the vacancy rate, but not so this year,” Airey said.
The biggest jump in rental listings was in Joondalup and Wanneroo, up 26% on December.
He said the absence of first home buyers is being felt with the increase in selling stock on market, with 10,067 homes on the market – a rise of 861 properties from a month ago and 1,600 from a year ago.
“For several quarters the number of listings hovered around 8,500 properties but now seem to be trending back to a more usual 12,000,” he said.
“The biggest jump in listings was experienced through parts of the cities of Joondalup and Wanneroo which saw 28% more stock up for sale”.
Do you have a vacant property in Perth? Tell us what you are experiencing: <a href="mailto:jduke@propertyobserver.com.au" target="_blank">jduke@propertyobserver.com.au</a>
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David Airey

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