Data Analysis

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A new digital data service will record information relating to rough sleepers in real-time to better facilitate collaboration between service providers for those experiencing homelessness in NSW.  
Premier Gladys Berejiklian said global tech giant Microsoft has partnered with the NSW Government and the Act to End Street Sleeping Collaboration to bring the project to fruition. 
“Every day more than 37,000 people in NSW experience homelessness and this new initiative will provide us with a more accurate understanding of the challenges they face,” Berejiklian said.
“By using technology to collect a range of social and demographic data on rough sleepers, we can improve the way we respond to homelessness.”
Minister for Families, Communities and Disability Services Gareth Ward said the launch of the initiative comes during the inaugural Connections Week, which aims to create a by-name list of people sleeping rough in Sydney’s CBD.
“The homelessness targets our Government has set require an innovative approach as well as collaboration with our non-government partners,” Ward said. 
“By compiling a database of rough sleepers, our assertive outreach teams and NGOs will be able to better collaborate towards a common goal.”
Minister for Customer Service Victor Dominello said the data will be captured using a mobile device and include geolocation technology.
“We are using digital technology to make life easier for some of the most vulnerable people in the community.”
Act to End Street Sleeping Convener Graham West said the aim is to create a vulnerability index of rough sleepers across the state, to determine risk and help prioritise specialist services. 
Data collected this week will be used to inform potential expansion of the program across the state.
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Microsoft partners with NSW Government and the Act to End Street Sleeping

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The Australian nut industry reached a record high $1,045,000,000 in exports for the 2018/19 year, according to the recently released ABS report.
Property valuation firm Herron Todd White (HTW) found that the industry is currently experiencing its largest expansion in a decade, with industry value is split almost equally between domestic and imported product.
The most prominent nut products produced in the country are almonds, macadamia, walnuts, pecans, chestnuts, pistachio, and hazelnuts..
Australia currently exports nuts to around 55 countries, but a range of new free trade agreements currently in negotiation are bringing further optimism to all facets of the industry. 
Almonds
Australia is the second largest producer of almonds in the world behind the USA, where Californian agriculture is dominated by the production. 
HTW found that Australian almonds are set to have a farmgate value of over $1billion dollars by 2025. 
There are five major growing regions in Australia encompassing: Adelaide and the Riverland (South Australia); Sunraysia (Victoria); Riverina (New South Wales); Swan Region (Western Australia). 
In 2018 the total area planted to commercial almond orchards was 42,000 hectares. 
Production in 2018 was 80,374 tonnes of kernel. 
The industry is currently in a period of significant expansion estimated to increase orchard area to 50,000 hectares by 2025 before plateauing due to constraints of water and suitable land.
The firm concluded that production is estimated to rise to 140,000 tonnes by 2025 and 155,000 tonnes by 2030. 
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Australian almond industry rockets towards $1 billion farmgate value: HTW

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The Australian nut industry reached a record high $1,045,000,000 in exports for the 2018/19 year, according to the recently released ABS report.
Property valuation firm Herron Todd White (HTW) found that the industry is currently experiencing its largest expansion in a decade, with industry value is split almost equally between domestic and imported product.
The most prominent nut products produced in the country are almonds, macadamia, walnuts, pecans, chestnuts, pistachio, and hazelnuts..
Australia currently exports nuts to around 55 countries, but a range of new free trade agreements currently in negotiation are bringing further optimism to all facets of the industry. 
Chestnuts
The Australian chestnut industry operates principally in the southern regions of Australia - NSW (around Orange, Southern Tablelands, Blue Mountains and Batlow), Tasmania (Northern and Central), Victoria (North-East and Central-East of Melbourne) South Australia (Adelaide Hills), and Western Australia (South-west).
HTW found that approximately 70% of the national crop is grown in northeast Victoria.
Chestnut production in 2018 was valued (farm gate) at $9.4 million, based on a production of 1,100 tonnes and comprised around 250,000 chestnut trees grown on approximately 1,500 hectares.
The industry estimates that with more trees being planted, farm gate value will increase to approximately $12 million by 2021.
The industry is dominated by the domestic market with approximately 2% exported, mainly to Asia.
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Australian chestnut industry struggling to break into new markets: HTW

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The Australian nut industry reached a record high $1,045,000,000 in exports for the 2018/19 year, according to the recently released ABS report.
Property valuation firm Herron Todd White (HTW) found that the industry is currently experiencing its largest expansion in a decade, with industry value is split almost equally between domestic and imported product.
The most prominent nut products produced in the country are almonds, macadamia, walnuts, pecans, chestnuts, pistachio, and hazelnuts.
Australia currently exports nuts to around 55 countries, but a range of new free trade agreements currently in negotiation are bringing further optimism to all facets of the industry. 
Walnuts
Major production areas for walnuts are on the east coast of Tasmania, the Goulburn Valley near Shepparton and the Murray Irrigation area near Kerang and Swan Hill in Victoria and in the Riverina (near Griffith and Leeton) in New South Wales.
Small scale orchards are scattered in the Ovens Valley, Gippsland and Central region of Victoria, Southern Highlands and Central Tablelands of New South Wales, the Adelaide Hills and Riverland regions of South Australia, and in south-west Western Australia.
HTW found that the Australian walnut industry has grown significantly in recent years due to growth in the establishment of large-scale commercial plantings.
The production of Australian walnuts in 2018 was in excess of 11,700 tonnes in-shell. Farm-gate value was $55 million and the export value approximately $25 million. 
Close to 3,600 ha of mature and developing walnut trees were under cultivation in 2018. 
HTW noted that this number is expected to rise to 4,300 ha by 2021, as existing growers expand their orchards and new growers enter the industry.
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Australian walnut industry experiences growth: HTW 

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The Australian nut industry reached a record high $1,045,000,000 in exports for the 2018/19 year according to the recently released ABS report.
Property valuation firm Herron Todd White (HTW) found that the industry is currently experiencing its largest expansion in a decade, with industry value is split almost equally between domestic and imported product.
The most prominent nut products produced in the country are almonds, macadamia, walnuts, pecans, chestnuts, pistachio, and hazelnuts..
Australia currently exports nuts to around 55 countries, but a range of new free trade agreements currently in negotiation are bringing further optimism to all facets of the industry. 
Pistachio
The major pistachio production areas are along the Murray River Valley between Swan Hill in Victoria and Waikerie in South Australia. Further plantings are in central west Victoria and Pinnaroo in South Australia.
There are a small number of growers in central New South Wales, southern Victoria and Western Australia though these only currently produce small yields. A central commercial processing facility is located at Robinvale in Victoria.
HTW found that the pistachio industry includes a mix of medium-sized and smaller operations. The bulk of the crop is produced on medium-sized orchards.
The total area under pistachio production in 2018 was 1,300 hectares.
Australian pistachio production averages 1,800 tonnes in-shell per year (2-year average 2017/18).
The industry is expanding, with new plantings of about 150 to 200 hectares per annum occurring over the last few years.
HTW noted that, by 2021, the area under pistachio production is expected to increase to 1,900 hectares, producing a crop of 4,000 tonnes for a farm gate value of $45 million.
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Australian pistachio production expected to more-than-double by 2021: HTW

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The Australian nut industry reached a record high $1,045,000,000 in exports for the 2018/19 year, according to the recently released ABS report.
Property valuation firm Herron Todd White (HTW) found that the industry is currently experiencing its largest expansion in a decade, with industry value is split almost equally between domestic and imported product.
The most prominent nut products produced in the country are almonds, macadamia, walnuts, pecans, chestnuts, pistachio, and hazelnuts..
Australia currently exports nuts to around 55 countries, but a range of new free trade agreements currently in negotiation are bringing further optimism to all facets of the industry. 
Pecans
Most of the Australian pecan crop is produced under irrigation in the Gwydir Valley, east of Moree in northern inland New South Wales.
Smaller scale production extends from the Hunter Valley and Nelson Bay on the NSW Central Coast to the Mid North Coast near Kempsey, and the North Coast around Lismore. Pecans are also grown in Central Queensland around Mundubbera and Eidsvold and in the South East in the Lockyer Valley and south to the NSW border.
HTW found that the area under pecan orchards nationally is currently 1,800 ha, producing approximately 3,000 tonnes in-shell (1,650 tonnes of kernel).
Pecan trees take 10 years or more to reach full production there is a substantial lag time before new plantings impact crop size.
After a long period of stagnation production increases are now being observed, according to the property valuation firm.
Global production remains concentrated in US and Mexico which together account for 90% or more of the world crop.
South Africa continues to expand production with small but significant crops also to be found in Central and South America, HTW noted.
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Australian pecan industry finally reaping rewards: HTW

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The Australian nut industry reached a record high $1,045,000,000 in exports for the 2018/19 year, according to the recently released ABS report.
Property valuation firm Herron Todd White (HTW) found that the industry is currently experiencing its largest expansion in a decade, with industry value is split almost equally between domestic and imported product.
The most prominent nut products produced in the country are almonds, macadamia, walnuts, pecans, chestnuts, pistachio, and hazelnuts..
Australia currently exports nuts to around 55 countries, but a range of new free trade agreements currently in negotiation are bringing further optimism to all facets of the industry. 
Macadamias
Macadamias are grown along the eastern seaboard of New South Wales and Queensland, from Port Macquarie in the south, through to the Atherton Tablelands in the north - About half of the Australian crop is produced in NSW and half in QLD.
HTW found that production is expanding most rapidly in Bundaberg (QLD), and the Clarence Valley (NSW).
New plantings are also being developed in Mackay, Maryborough and Emerald in Queensland and in the Richmond Valley in NSW.
The industry is in the middle of its fastest growth since the early 1990s. Bundaberg became the single largest growing region in 2016.
The recent resurgence in new plantings has seen almost 1.5 million trees or 5,000 ha established in the last five years. 
There are currently around 8 million macadamia trees under cultivation. Of these, about one third are yet to reach full production. 
By 2025 about 30,000 ha will be planted to macadamias with kernel production of over 22,000 tonnes, or 70,000 tonnes inshell. Export value is expected to exceed $400 million.
Global demand currently exceeds supply however the property valuation firm estimates that global supply may triple in the next 7 years.
The biggest growth in demand is currently coming from Asia, where urban consumers are focussed on health, convenience and new products.
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Australian macadamia industry sees fastest growth since the 1990's: HTW

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The Australian nut industry reached a record high $1,045,000,000 in exports for the 2018/19 year according to the recently released ABS report.
Property valuation firm Herron Todd White (HTW) found that the industry is currently experiencing its largest expansion in a decade, with industry value is split almost equally between domestic and imported product.
The most prominent nut products produced in the country are almonds, macadamia, walnuts, pecans, chestnuts, pistachio, and hazelnuts..
Australia currently exports nuts to around 55 countries, but a range of new free trade agreements currently in negotiation are bringing further optimism to all facets of the industry. 
Hazelnuts 
Hazelnuts are grown in the temperate areas of south-eastern Australia. The main production regions are the Central Tablelands of New South Wales around Orange, Narrandera, and northeast Victoria around Myrtleford. They are also grown in central and eastern Victoria and increasingly in northern Tasmania. There are small levels of production in South Australia and Western Australia.
HTW found that many hazelnut operations are small orchards of up to 6,000 trees, although this is slowly changing with the average size of new hazelnut orchards increasing and more productive varieties being planted.
Hazelnuts generally take seven to 10 years to come into commercial production.
Australia has recently seen a major on-farm investment in hazelnuts by Ferrero, one of the world’s largest confectionery manufacturers.
Its wholly owned subsidiary, Agri Australis, has planted 1 million trees across 1,900 hectares near Narrandera.
This confirms that the opportunities for Australian hazelnuts are large, giving renewed confidence to Australian growers.
Ferrero’s first small harvest occurred in 2018.
The property valuation firm concluded that the industry is set for rapid expansion - as young orchards come into commercial bearing the industry estimates hazelnut production by 2021 will be 5,500 tonnes in-shell with a value of $40 million.
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Australian hazelnut industry shifting to a larger scale: HTW

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GUEST OBSERVATION
While drought policy raises many complex emotional, political and policy issues, it can be helpful to think of it as an insurance problem: how can we best help farmers manage climate risk?
Drought insurance has been a long-standing goal and it’s easy to understand why. If viable, drought insurance markets could help farmers manage climate risk without the costs and potential side effects of government drought support.
Unfortunately, technical problems have hampered the development of drought insurance markets in Australia to date. However, there is hope that with improvements in technology and better data these problems could be solved, paving the way for a new generation of weather-based insurance products.
The missing market for drought insurance
Australia has well-functioning but limited markets for crop insurance. If hail or fire destroys a paddock, for example, an insured farmer will receive a payout for the value of the crop.
But multi-peril crop insurance – which covers a wide range of adverse events including drought – has failed to thrive in Australia. The international experience has been similarly uninspiring.
Many reviews have attributed these failures to information and participation problems.
Firstly, only the riskiest or most drought-prone farms may sign up for insurance (the adverse selection problem). Second, farms with insurance may put less effort into preparing for and managing drought (the moral hazard problem). Both these problems make insurance more costly to provide, resulting in higher premiums and lower uptake.
While these problems apply to all forms of insurance, they are particularly acute in agriculture, given the effects of drought will vary widely depending on farm-management decisions and detailed – and difficult to observe – farm characteristics such as the quality of land and livestock.
Subsidies are not the answer
Recently, farmers groups have called for tax breaks to promote multi-peril crop insurance.
Unfortunately, while tax incentives and other subsidies may increase uptake, there is no coherent case for providing more than normal tax deductibility. In fact, such subsidies could actually cause economic harm.
Insurance premiums provide important signals to farmers, promoting preparedness and adaptation. This includes promoting careful crop-planting decisions when drought risk is high. The inglorious record of farm crop insurance in the United States shows how things can go very wrong when insurance is subsidised.
It is not surprising that previous reviews have consistently recommended against insurance subsidies, while just last year the New South Wales government rejected a similar proposal.
Index-based insurance could be a way forward
One alternative, which has been receiving increased attention in recent years, is index-based insurance. Here payouts are based on weather data rather than an assessment of actual farm damages. For example, a farmer might receive a payout if rainfall falls below an agreed threshold.
Index-based products are largely immune to the information problems that plague standard insurance: insurers don’t need to spend time and money assessing each application, or monitoring farmers’ behaviour. Instead, insurers must solve the technical problem of designing an accurate index.
This index needs to be sensitive to the complex effects of weather on farms. In practice, the effect of a drought depends on many things. The amount of rainfall, its timing, the temperature and many other factors all interplay. If these factors are not taken into account, drought insurance runs into a “basis risk” problem: payouts don’t align with the climate risks faced by individual farms.
This basis risk problem is largely why index-based weather insurance products have struggled in Australia to date.
Drought insurance could be public or private
In recent years, governments have focused on promoting private drought insurance markets. However, public schemes are also possible and exist in many other countries.
A well-designed public drought insurance scheme – with premiums to cover costs – might have some advantages over private insurance. For example, governments may be better placed to absorb losses in years of severe widespread drought (although re-insurance markets might provide a way for the private sector to manage such risks).
However, public drought insurance schemes could, depending on their design, reduce demand for private insurance. This problem also extends to other forms of government drought relief: farmers may be less likely to pay for insurance if they suspect ad hoc drought assistance will be available.
Better data is essential
Ultimately, public and private insurance schemes face similar technical challenges. Solving these technical issues requires detailed data both on weather and farm outcomes.
Numerous reviews have cited data limitations as a key constraint on the Australian farm insurance sector. A recent review by ABS and ABARES highlighted the patchy and fragmented nature of existing government and industry agricultural data.
There is a good case for government to support the supply of this data, similar to the National Flood Risk Information Project established following the Australian 2011 floods. Investments in data are likely to have many applications beyond insurance, including the development of improved tools to support farm decision-making.
While drought insurance schemes have had mixed success to date, there remains some hope for the future. The emergence of “big data” collected from satellites and internet-enabled devices promises to revolutionise both farm production and risk management. In time, smart products underpinned by better data might finally help us solve the challenge of drought policy.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106154/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Neal Hughes, Senior Economist, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/better-data-would-help-crack-the-drought-insurance-problem-106154" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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