Crisis

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We’re going to benefit from the shutdown imposed by the virus, in infinite ways. It may not feel like it at the moment, and I don’t disregard the pain many are going through, but Australia will look back at this crisis as a time that changed the nation for the better.
The discussion now is about how and when we return to normal. But the new normal will be different to the old. It has to be.
One of the big lessons is that we cannot continue to have so many important things made in one country – or anywhere offshore. There are things we need to make in Australia. Manufacturing is poised for a revival, with benefits in employment. This will be part of a strong economic recovery.
The corporate twits who thought it made sense to locate customer call centres offshore because it saved a few bucks are now reconsidering their strategies. They need to bring customer service back home and in the process they will have fewer angry and frustrated customers. And create jobs in Australia.
The situation has forced us to innovate and to work harder at helping our customers. Real estate has found ways to function without live auctions and open houses. We’re seeing examples of online auctions achieving sales well over the reserve price. One-on-one inspections of properties have taken us back to old service standards and getting to know buyers one-on-one. Everyone benefits.
Many of us have realised how much we value the simple things we took for granted, like meeting friends for a cuppa or taking the family to the beach. When the restrictions are lifted, Australians will party like they never have since the end of World War Two – not extravagantly but by going to cafes, pubs, theatres, parks and beaches. A recent survey indicates people plan to take holidays in Australia. Many of the lost jobs will come back (not all, unfortunately).
Some people have learned, by accident, how to save. The restrictions have stopped us going out and spending. The improvement to the bank balance has been an eye-opener. Now some of us know how to get on top of the mortgage and young adults have been shown a way to save a deposit for a first home. First-home buyers with secure jobs will be busy in the second half of the year.
The resources sector has remained steady in the shutdown period. Queensland locations with links to the mining industry have experienced an uplift in rental demand amid the virus crisis, with rents actually rising. China, our biggest trading partner, is projected by the IMF to experience moderate economic growth this year and a boom next year. I’m expecting a resources boom in Australia as China and other nations get ambitious about economic recovery. Real estate markets influenced by resources links may surge – but investors should proceed with caution, because these are fickle and volatile markets.
A more engaging trend with impacts on real estate is the one I wrote about last week. We can expect an increase in people moving from the big cities and buying in lifestyle areas within an hour or two of the city. This movement has been enhanced by technology which allows people to work remotely – and will be exacerbated by the shutdown, which has forced people to work from home.
Some will make it a permanent arrangement. Expect uplift in markets like the Central Coast and the Southern Highlands in NSW; Ballarat, Bendigo, the Latrobe Valley and elsewhere in Victoria; and the Sunshine Coast in Queensland.
As an aside, the virus has done all of us a favour by delivering a major come-uppance to the ugly bastards who run global oil businesses and regularly hold the world to ransom with their cynical manipulation of supply and prices. We’ve all saved money by needing to fill up our cars less often and paying less when we do. Will it change our habits post-shutdown? Hopefully, but probably not.
The virus has generally done the environment a big favour. The before-and-after shots of some of world’s big cities are a revelation, including some in Australia. There’s been a big reduction in emissions. The greatest benefit of the shutdown would be achieved if we learnt something from that. Will we? I fear we will easily slip back into old habits.
But, amid everything, we’ve learnt who the real heroes are and how much we underpay them. We’ve discovered that we can do without over-rated footie players and self-absorbed corporate executives, but not without under-resourced and under-appreciated nurses. Boris Johnson has learnt that more than most.
And we’ve seen a cultural shift in politics and business. There’s been a refreshing absence of adversarial politics. The country apparently can function without people shouting at one another in Parliament. Let’s make that a permanent change.
Business in many ways has sought to be part of the solution, even including the major banks. The only sectors which haven’t entered into the spirit of pulling together have been insurance and some sections of news media.
Who knows – maybe going out of your way to help people is actually good for business.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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The future benefits of the coronavirus crisis: HotSpotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Following times of crisis, real estate is traditionally the first to bounce back.
COVID-19 bears striking similarities to the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1919, when despite the media creating fear and hysteria through alarmist headlines, capital city housing prices didn’t fall at all. They boomed in 1919 and then continued to rise by more than ten per cent each year until 1921.
After the national recession (1990-91) and after the GFC (2008-09), it was the real estate market that most quickly saw a return to pre-crisis activity and values.
Why? Because everyone needs a roof over their head  - be that as an owner occupier or a tenant, a business owner or employee, an educator or student, a surgeon or a patient. Be that as a grower or manufacturer, wholesaler or retailer.
I see no indication that this crisis, this pandemic, will be any different. And look what the federal government has done in light of COVID-19? It has stepped in to look after the real estate market as an asset class. I haven’t seen any similar level of intervention in other asset classes, including the share market.
I look at the stages we have already gone through since the first suggestion of COVID-19 affecting the real estate industry some six or seven weeks ago, and what is still to come.
For some perspective, the coronavirus pandemic was confirmed to have reached Australia on January 25, 2020. The first death in this country was recorded om March 1st. On 24th March, realestate.com.au reported that ‘Every day is changing in the wake of coronavirus and it is becoming clear that the property market will not be immune.’ On 12th April, it reported ‘The coronavirus pandemic is having a catastrophic effect on Australia’s economy. While it’s still too soon to tell what damage has extended to the property market, it will unlikely come out unscathed.’
Stage 1 - Outbreak. Taking away of freedom.
Our federal and state governments introduce necessary rules and guidelines to restrict the spread of COVID-19.
Stage 2 - Acceptance
We are adapting to the new way of doing things. Businesses are adapting and pivoting, but initial acceptance turns to ‘get me out of here’ as the novelty wears off. (Staff gravitate back to the office environment, for example). Real estate transactions still occur as people still want and need to buy, sell and rent. Rules around inspections change. Auction go virtual. The real estate industry responds and the better the leadership, the more continuity is ensured and the more fluidly this this carries us through the peak crisis period. We are now starting to see a light at the end of the tunnel.
Stage 3 - Return to ‘normal’. Almost there.
This is ahead of us. It is a re-entry into life as we knew it. It will be complex to navigate, and business leaders and employees alike have critical roles to play in restructuring and moving forward. Courage, confidence, compassion and above all, great leadership, are required.
Stage 4 - The ‘new’ normal
There is a need to re-imagine the old, to bed down new or adapted strategies, and thrive. Businesses won’t go back to what they knew before the pandemic. They will reinvent themselves to be more resilient.
The real estate industry has got this.
We are at the cusp of the positive phase but stage 3 will not be a ‘bang, bang, bang’ like stage 1. This will be more gradual – over three to six months rather than a matter of weeks.
In the medical landscape, the focus is on the flattening of the curve. In the real estate landscape, we look to the upward curve of positive indicators.
This COVID-19 pandemic is going to give us a ‘new normal’ but those trends will shape the way we live and work.
Nothing will change the need for a roof over our heads.
Share market losses and recessions are not necessarily predictors of property declines. Confidence will drive economic recovery, and real estate activity will be significant as ‘flight to safety’ sees property offering better options in comparison to other asset classes given the low interest rate environment and the fiscal policies put in place by governments in response to COVID-19. (Relief packages, stimulation packages, funding and support)
One of the most googled questions right now is: How will coronavirus affect house prices?
Some markets may experience this more than others, with a decrease in values – but not at alarmist levels. I do not believe we’ll see significant drops or forced sales across the board.
Right now, around one-third of the world’s population is living under some sort of lockdown. Only public health indicators will bring an ‘end’ to the pandemic.
Three factors determine the severity of economic downturn: the degree of isolation and social distancing expected; how long these things go on for; and monetary and fiscal policies.
Australia is in a good space. As is New Zealand.
While no sector of the economy is being spared from COVID-19 impact, real estate is Australia’s biggest industry and its greatest contributor to employment. It represents more than 13 per cent of GDP, which is why those leaders who must manage and plan the economic and policy response to this pandemic will keep their focus firmly on real estate.
Housing is Australia's single largest asset class. Residential property outperformed all other investment types, including shares, over the past 20 years.
Real estate makes the economy stable, has tangible value, provides jobs and is an income generating asset. Real estate exists to provide shelter. Real estate will be a major pillar of recovery.
And when we come out the other end, our leaders – across government, real estate and other sectors, will be even better prepared for any crisis of the future.
MICHAEL DAVOREN is the Managing Director at RE/MAX Australia
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All roads lead to real estate: RE/MAX's Michael Davoren

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<div>The housing affordability crisis is now one of the biggest issues in Australia, causing widespread social, political and economic implications, and according to Douglas Driscoll, chief executive of real estate group Starr Partners.</div>
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<div>Housing affordability is not just a problem for the young generation, it impacts other echelons of the Australian population.</div>
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<div>Over time, Australia has started to view property as a business opportunity as opposed to merely somewhere to live, and it is now a national obsession. In fact, Australia has the highest number of residential mortgages per capita in the world, with house prices having risen at a rate that far outperforms that of household income and rents.<a href="https://outlook.office.com/owa/?realm=propertyobserver.com.au#_ftn1"></a> </div>
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<div>He said he is perplexed by the Government’s restraint and says it needs to move beyond deploying election tactics because inactivity is no longer an option.</div>
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<div> “There’s a lot of conversation but little action being undertaken to reach a resolution. You don’t need to be a professor of economics to see that we need a levelling of the playing field. We require immediate and prudent Government intervention that will protect the interests of future generations, not just win votes at the next election,” he said.</div>
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<div>“If you simply just tried to give first home buyers more of an edge this will prove counterproductive and might have disastrous consequences; it could simply add more fuel to what is already a roaring inferno and see property prices artificially increased to a whole new level. </div>
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<div>"Resultantly, investors will just end up outbidding owner-occupiers and paying even more. </div>
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<div>"Conversely, I don’t think it’s fair that we simply hone in on the wealthy.</div>
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<div>"In my opinion, this issue can only be resolved by pincer movement, applying tactics on both sides of the spectrum is the only way we can begin to reach a more level playing field."</div>
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He believes affordability could be addressed on a state-level.
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<div>“We are so obsessed with our own little patch of Australia, but at the end of the day we need to remember that regional Australia and even other capital cities are not faced with the crippling prices we have in Sydney," he said.</div>
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<div>"The matter is met with incredible complexity; if we change legislation, what does that mean for the other eighteen million Australians living outside of the harbour city?”</div>
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<div>Looking abroad, less than 50 percent of residents in Germany own their home. Tax regulations, stable prices, availability of housing and risk-averse banks make renting the more attractive option<a href="https://outlook.office.com/owa/?realm=propertyobserver.com.au#_ftn2"></a>. </div>
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<div>Contrastingly, the UK Government has a number of options for buyers under affordable home ownership schemes. Shared ownership is a scheme that allows UK residents to buy a share of their home and pay rent on the remaining share.<a href="https://outlook.office.com/owa/?realm=propertyobserver.com.au#_ftn3"></a> </div>
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<div>DOUGLAS OFFERS SIX SOLUTIONS TO THE HOUSING AFFORDABILITY CRISIS:</div>
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<div>1.       DISCOUNTED MORTGAGE RATES FOR FIRST HOME BUYERS. Subsidies already exist for students, with the availability of extremely competitive low-interest rate loans and study assist loans, so why can’t something similar be offered to first home buyers? The role and responsibility of any Government is to serve society and create opportunities for the people it represents. Unlike education, home ownership is not a democratic right, but it is certainly something that a government should help encourage and financially facilitate.</div>
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<div>2.       LIMIT NEGATIVE GEARING. Negative gearing looks as if it is going to be front and centre of the political debate for the upcoming Federal election. Contrary to some reports, negative gearing is not necessarily the domain of the wealthy, but it is certainly not something that the working class always benefit from. I don’t subscribe to the theory that negative gearing is responsible for driving property prices up, but it is definitely a contributing factor, and unlike a lot of my peers, I believe that some form of prudent intervention is now needed. I have to question why the Government ruled out changes to negative gearing in the recently announced Federal Budget, because something needs to give. Regardless of their recent manifesto, I still believe it’s a case of when, not if. The two main political parties seem to be diametrically opposed on this matter, but personally I believe that the solution lies somewhere between the two standpoints. Rather than abolish negative gearing altogether, it could perhaps be less generous or capped to a certain number of properties, for example. This would only apply to new transactions with any existing investments being grandfathered. </div>
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<div>3.       ABOLISH STAMP DUTY ON FIRST TIME PURCHASES. Historically, the Government has tried to entice younger generations into buying property by offering grants, but this is fundamentally flawed in my opinion and has never really worked. Instead, first home buyers should be made exempt from having to pay the exorbitant cost of stamp duty.</div>
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<div>4.       ALLOW FIRST HOME BUYERS TO PURCHASE USING THEIR SUPERANNUATION. In theory, this isn’t a bad idea, but most first home buyers probably don’t have enough money in their super to pay the deposit for a property, especially if they are hoping to buy in Sydney. Rather than simply being able to take the money from their superannuation fund, it should be structured as an interest-free loan, with repayments being made over a long-term period with the full amount needing to be settled before the maturation of the fund.</div>
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<div>5.       SIGNIFICANT INVESTMENT IN REGIONAL TOWNS. One of the key contributing factors of the affordability crisis is the migration of the masses to metropolitan areas; meaning that we all want to live in the same areas and are often left fighting over the same scraps. Many rural locations are deemed by some city dwellers as antiquated outposts. What if there was considerable investment in these areas that would breathe life back into them and make them more attractive to buyers? Over the past few years, the NSW State Government has spent billions of dollars on macro projects within the confines of Sydney, such as large-scale urban regeneration and new or upgraded transport infrastructure. –Imagine what would happen if they spent similar sums on areas such as Maitland, Wollongong and Bathurst. Would they become viable alternatives for people looking to buy a home? The introduction of high-speed rail connections to these areas would certainly enhance their desirability. Another enticement could be to offer incentives to outer-city locations on an exclusive basis</div>
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<div>6.       SHARED OWNERSHIP. The UK’s version of this flexible scheme helps subsidise the purchase price and allows the homeowner to buy bigger shares as and when they can afford to. I think a similar model would work here in Australia. We have to be mindful from a socioeconomic view that property doesn’t just become the reserve of the rich.</div>
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<div>DOUGLAS DRISCOLL is chief executive officer of real estate agency <a href="https://www.starrpartners.com.au/" target="_blank">Starr Partners</a>.</div>
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