Consumer Spending

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GUEST OBSERVER
It is well known that retail sales have regular cycles that can be disrupted by external events, such as federal elections. While anecdotally it has been suggested that uncertainty around elections causes shoppers to close their wallets and purses, there appears very little evidence either domestically or globally to support the claim that an election campaign will negatively impact consumer spending.
<h2>The Blame Game</h2>
Retailers are notorious at playing the “blame game” when it comes to their sales and profit reporting. They too quickly point the finger at Mother Nature, for being too hot or too rainy, the releasing of blockbusters that distract shoppers, and even customers themselves for being too price conscious, chasing discounts that erode their margins.
This month, Myer CEO Richard Umbers warned that the election campaign is expected to hit consumer sentiment and negatively affect Myer’s outlook.
Surprisingly, Australia’s other large department store, David Jones, remained silent. It appears David Jones is just getting on with business and delivering store sales growth twice the rate of the Australian department store sector. Seemingly, there are other factors affecting retail stores sales, other than an impending federal election.
<h2>Is there evidence?</h2>
Researchers from Princeton University and the University of Chicago found elections had little impact on how consumers actually spend. In their study, spanning four presidential elections, their initial findings identified a correlation between a voters’ “ideological opposition towards a winning candidate” (measured by a voter-ideology score) and a lower score on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
However, the correlation did not prove causality. For example, when President George W. Bush was elected in 2000, negative sentiment had no effect on consumers’ self-reported spending plans or on their subsequent automobile purchases and credit-card use. Consumers ideologically opposed to President Bush were not happy about the election outcome, but this slump in sentiment had no effect on what they planned to spend, or actually spent.
It is a similar picture here in Australia, where commentators are looking a little more closely at claims elections stifle retail spending. A review of the ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index demonstrates a similar phenomenon to that in the US. With the exception of September to October lead into the November 2001 election, marred by the 9/11 attacks in New York and the collapse of Ansett, in most cases, confidence remained positive.
Prior to the October 9 2004 election, the September consumer confidence grew by over 6 percent on August. Similarly, October 2007 was up nearly 6.5 percent on September in the lead up to the November 24 election.
<h2>Confident but deferred</h2>
The operative word used among consumers during times of uncertainty is “deferred”. IBISWorld chairman Phil Ruthven finds that shoppers tend to take a “wait-and-see approach” during election campaigns, which sees spending curtailed on big ticket items like cars, consumer electronics and high-end fashion, but household basics such as food and basics generally remain insulated. In most cases, consumer confidence tends to bounce directly after elections.
There are far too many variables in play to suggest that an extended federal election alone will derail consumer confidence and stifle retail spending. In fact, some consumers who expect to be the recipients of election sweeteners such as tax cuts, infrastructure projects and or job opportunities, may actually increase spending. The power of suggestion is strong with such consumers. Once consumers anticipate a specific positive outcome will occur, they believe their subsequent thoughts and behaviours will actually help to bring about that outcome.
<h2>What retail categories are most affected?</h2>
Food, groceries, fuel and basic clothing generally remain well protected during uncertain times. Despite increasing price competition between the players, the food and grocery division remain moderately strong.
Ultimately, shoppers still need to put fuel in their cars and food on the table. However, most exposed are “big ticket” retailers selling furniture, consumer electronics and automobiles. Fashion clothing and accessories are expected to struggle as such purchases are tied to discretionary spending.
<h2>Other factors?</h2>
Granted, the combination of unseasonable warmer weather across Australia and the growth of global fashion retailers like H&amp;M, Uniqlo, Zara, Forever 21 and Top Shop in the domestic market, will definitely pose a challenge for retailers.
This year incumbent players like Myer, David Jones, Premier Investment and Specialty Retail Group are not just competing with one another, but also these new entrants. This year, more than ever before, shoppers have more choice.
While most consumers remain confident, some retailers are certainly looking towards challenging times ahead. Granted, this is the first federal election held during winter in 20 years and timed “smack bang” in the middle of half yearly, stocktake sales. With an eight week election period well underway, shoppers will continue to buy the basics, but will defer upgrading big ticket items until an outcome is announced on July 3.
An unseasonably warm autumn and a glut of global fashion retailers in the market, will encourage incumbent retailers to cut prices little deeper this year. Great for shoppers, but tough on the books. It is looking to be a tough year ahead for retailers.
Gary Mortimer senior lecturer, QUT Business School, Queensland University of Technology and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gary-mortimer-1322" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Keep calm and keep shopping – how elections impact retail sales

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GUEST OBSERVER
The recent lift in retail sales has sustained into October, a 0.5 percent gain in the month outstripping expectations of a more moderate 0.3 percent gain.
That follows back to back 0.6 percent monthly gains in August and September.
The detail suggests an expected dampening effect from price discounting did not materialise. Price gains accounted for all of the sales gain in Q3 and recent indicators suggested some food price increases have partially unwound in recent months.
However, food retail posted a solid 0.6 percent gain in the month, anchoring the overall result (basic food retail, i.e. supermarkets, account for about 40 percent of retail sales).
Other categories were a bit so-so with a solid but unspectacular rise for household goods retail (+0.7 percent/mth), declines for clothing (–0.4 percent) and the beleaguered department store category (–0.4 percent) but reasonable enough gains for ‘small ticket’ discretionary categories ‘other retail’ (+0.8 percent) and cafes &amp; restaurants (+0.4 percent).
By state, Qld was a standout with a surprisingly strong 0.8 percent lift.
Overall, the result suggests consumer demand may has retained some momentum although as always disentangling retail specific effects from wider patterns of demand remains tricky.
Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Queensland a standout with a surprisingly strong lift in retail sales

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GUEST OBSERVER 
In February, more new sports utility vehicles (SUVs) or four-wheel drive vehicles were sold than passenger cars for the first time.
Yes, SUVs have overtaken cars and the gap is likely to grow over time. Buyers are liking the riding position, versatility and fit-out of SUVs and there are now a variety of model sizes to suit all preferences.
  There is a bit of conjecture about which country holds the record for the longest economic expansion. The latest OECD data suggests that Australia already holds the record. The Netherlands had an expansion of 86 quarters (December quarter 1981 to March quarter 2003) while Australia has notched up 102 quarters (September quarter 1991 to December quarter 2016).
The Reserve Bank is unlikely to settle the matter, downplaying the importance of whether Australia has the world’s longest expansion. Still, the bottom line is that the economy is doing well and has done so for quite some time.
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Consumers are spending, not splurging. But the pace of sales is certainly sustainable. The lift in spending in January of 0.4 per cent matched the average pace over the past six months and this exceeds both the 5-year and decade-average sales growth of 0.3 per cent a month. 
Spending at takeaway food stores continues to be remarkable – up 1.6 percent in January and up 11.9 percent on a year ago. Competition is strong, keeping prices down, and that is causing people to sample the wares of the large range of food outlets. Ann increased range of “healthy choices” is also causing people to try the new offerings.
Job advertisements have been choppy in recent months while employers work out what their labour requirements are likely to be over 2017. Despite a dip in the seasonally adjusted number of job ads, trend growth is still rising and in fact annual trend growth is the best in seven months. The jobless rate looks set to hold between 5.5-6.0 percent.
National retail petrol prices have eased around 6 cents a litre from recent highs, in line with wholesale prices and Asian import prices. The wholesale price is near 116 cents a litre and that should be a guide for motorists to the cheapest prices that may be offered by retailers – usually at the peak of the discounting cycle in southern and eastern capital cities. 
What do the figures show?
Retail trade
Retail trade rose by 0.4 percent in January after falling by 0.1 percent in December. Annual sales growth lifted from 3.0 percent to 3.1 percent (5-year average gain was 4.0 percent)
Non-food retailing rose by 0.6 per cent in January after falling by 0.5 per cent in December. Non-food retail spending is now up 2.9 per cent on a year ago.
Spending rose the most at Electrical and electronic goods retailing (up 2.4 per cent) from Takeaway food services (up 1.6 per cent). Spending fell most at Pharmaceutical, cosmetic and toiletry goods retailing (down 1.4 per cent) from Department stores and Newspaper &amp; book retailing (both down 0.5 per cent).
Spending at takeaway food services was up 11.9 per cent on a year ago.
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Sales by chain-store retailers and other large retailers rose by 0.8 per cent In January after falling 0.1 per cent in December. Sales are up 4.2 per cent over the year (5-year average gain was 5.2 per cent).
Sales rose in six of the eight states and territories: NSW (+0.2 per cent), Victoria (+1.1 per cent), Queensland (unchanged), South Australia (+0.6 per cent), Western Australia (+0.3 per cent), Tasmania (+0.4 per cent), Northern Territory (-0.8 per cent), ACT (+1.2 per cent). Job Advertisements
Job advertisements fell 0.7 per cent in February from 5-year highs to 165,643 ads. Advertisements have been volatile in the past four months. In trend terms, ads rose by 0.4 per cent in the month to be up 6.6 per cent over the year.
New vehicle sales
There were 89,025 new vehicle sales in February, down 7.7 per cent on a year ago (one less selling day in 2017 than 2016). Sports Utility Vehicles (SUV) totalled 35,497 sales during February to record a 39.9 per cent share of total industry sales. Passenger cars totalled 34,740 for a 39.0 per cent share. Light commercials were the third largest segment with an 18.5 per cent share.
State data compared with a year ago: “In percentage terms, Western Australia showed the most marked fall. Its market dropped by 13.7 per cent, or 1,199 vehicle sales, followed by the Northern Territory (-10.7 per cent), South Australia (-10.6 per cent), New South Wales (-7.4 per cent), Victoria (-7.0 per cent) and Queensland (-6.6 per cent). Tasmania (+1.1 per cent) and the ACT (+0.3 per cent) were the only two markets to show an increase.”
Petrol price
According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol fell by 2.9 cents to 128.7 cents a litre in the past week. The metropolitan petrol price fell by 3.9 cents to 126.5 cents per litre while the regional price fell by 0.8 cents to 133.2 cents per litre.
Average unleaded petrol prices across states and territories over the past week were: Sydney (down by 3.9 cents to 131.5 c/l), Melbourne (down by 2.1 cents to 120.8 c/l), Brisbane (down by 1.9 cents to 123.2 c/l), Adelaide (down by 12.1 cents to 123.7 c/l), Perth (down by 1.0 cents to 130.6 c/l), Darwin (flat at 139.9 c/l), Canberra (flat at 139.6 c/l) and Hobart (down by 0.2 cents to 143.3 c/l).
The national average Australian price of diesel petrol fell 0.1 cents to 130.6 cents per litre in the week to March 5. The metropolitan price fell 0.2 cents to 130.8 c/l, while the regional average price fell 0.2 cents to 130.3 c/l.
  The national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price fell to an 11-week low of 115.7 cents a litre on Monday, down 0.9 cents a litre over the week. The terminal gate diesel price stands at 115.3 cents a litre, broadly flat over the previous week.
  Last week the key Singapore gasoline price fell by US$3.55 or 5.2 per cent to a 13-week low of US$64.85 a barrel. In Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price fell by $2.88 a barrel or 3.3 per cent to $85.76 a barrel or 53.94 cents a litre.
  MotorMouth records the following retail prices for capital cities today: Sydney 128.6c; Melbourne 119.6c; Brisbane 121.4c; Adelaide 118.7c; Perth 123.3c; Canberra 138.5c; Darwin 138.5c; Hobart 142.6c.
What is the importance of the economic data?
  The Bureau of Statistics’ Retail trade publication contains the most current readings on the performance of consumer spending. The ABS surveys 500 ‘larger businesses’ and 2,750 ‘smaller businesses’. Retail trade covers spending at a broad range of retail outlets but excludes both petrol and motor vehicle sales. A weak retail trade result may point to a slowing economy as well weighing on the share prices of listed retail stocks. But retail trade estimates can’t be assessed in isolation – it is important to look at the influences determining future trends in consumer spending, such as income, employment and confidence levels.
  The monthly Job Advertisements release is a leading employment indicator. Employers only seek additional staff if business activity is strong, and more importantly, if they expect that conditions will remain favourable in coming months. It takes around 5-6 months for the new staff to be added to the payrolls. But a fall in job advertisements would have a more immediate impact on monthly employment estimates.
  Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory's metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth.
  The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries releases estimates of car sales on the third business day of the month. The figures highlight the strength of consumer spending as well as conditions facing auto &amp; components companies.  
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The economy is chugging along nicely. Retail spending is growing at a monthly pace just above the long-term average, vehicle sales are healthy and trend growth of job ads has lifted. The Reserve Bank has no reason to lift or cut interest rates.
Petrol prices have retraced from recent highs, and not surprisingly consumer confidence has also lifted – especially the question on family finances.
  The recent falls in petrol prices are positive for retailers – especially discretionary retailers.
  The only thing exercising minds at present is the housing market with conditions varying markedly across the country.
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx">CommSec</a>.
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More SUVs sold than cars: Craig James

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment dipped 1 percent in June to 102.2 from 103.2 in May.
Coming after an 8.5 percent surge in May, the small decline in June mostly represents a consolidation at improved levels.
Last month’s surprise rate cut from the RBA was the main catalyst behind May’s rally and although confidence has slipped back a touch in June this is a fairly common pattern following an interest rate driven bounce. At 102.2 the Index is still in slightly ‘positive’ territory overall – recall that readings above 100 indicate optimists outnumber pessimists.
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Responses to additional questions on ‘news recall’ point to a somewhat calmer backdrop compared to March although the majority of consumers still assessed news as being unfavourable. The highest recall levels were for news on ‘economic conditions’ (27.8 percent) and ‘Budget &amp; tax’ (25 percent) but both were notably lower than in previous quarters. That is despite the May Budget and campaigning in the lead up to next month’s Federal election.
News on ‘international conditions’ was also much less prominent with the 10 percent level of recall on this item the lowest read in over a decade. Unsurprisingly, there was higher recall for news on ‘interest rates’ (16.5 percent) with the news on this topic viewed less negatively than in the previous four quarters.
Responses to additional questions on the ‘wisest place for savings’ showed a slightly less risk averse tone but attitudes still appear to be more conservative than seen throughout 2015. The proportion of consumers nominating ‘pay down debt’ fell from 24.4 percent in March to 20 percent in June.
This compares to an average reading of 17 percent in 2015. Consumers continue to heavily favour ‘safe’ options as well, with the proportion nominating bank deposits rising from 27.4 percent in March to 29.5 percent in June. That contrasts with continued lower readings for the proportion nominating real estate (15.8 percent in June vs 14.7 percent in March and average 25.4 percent in 2015) and shares (8.0 percent in June vs 7.6 percent in March and an average of 8.9 percent in 2015).
Consumers’ assessments of labour market conditions also consolidated on recent improvements. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Unemployment Expectations declined 0.1 percent from 136.3 in May to 136.2 in June. This Index measures respondents’ assessments of the outlook for the unemployment rate so lower reads indicate improved confidence in the employment outlook. The Index has fallen 7.5 percent over the last three months and is now down 10.9 percent on levels a year ago but is still 4.9 percent above its long run average – assessments have shown a steady improvement but are still more negative than usual.
The component detail behind the headline sentiment index showed firmer reads on ‘family finances’ but a softening in expectations for the economy. Most notably, the sub-index tracking respondents’ assessments of ‘family finances compared to a year ago’ – a component the RBA has emphasised as an indicator of demand – increased 4.3 percent. The sub-indexes tracking the one and five year outlook declined 3.8 percent and 5.2 percent respectively, with falls following particularly strong gains in May, of 13.2 percent and 14.8 percent respectively. The ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index was unchanged.
Consumer views on housing also consolidated in June. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index declined 2.7 percent but the retracement followed a strong 12.1 percent surge in May. Price expectations firmed in the month with the Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations up 3.6 percent to the highest level since September 2015. Both buyer sentiment and price expectations are still well below the readings seen a year ago but have shown a clear firming from the weak levels in early 2016, the RBA’s May rate cut clearly a supporting factor.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on July 5. A move at that meeting is highly unlikely. The key considerations for the Bank are around the outlook for inflation. On its current forecasts the RBA does not expect inflation to return to the bottom of the band until 2017, and that is on the assumption of a further rate cut given that the Bank’s forecasts are based on ‘market pricing’ for rates.
The most important and immediate information about whether the RBA’s May assessment is correct will come from the June quarter inflation report which prints on July 27, after the July Board meeting but ahead of the August 2 meeting. It is our assessment that the information in this report will confirm to the Board that another cut is indeed necessary.
 
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Bill Evans is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Consumer sentiment consolidates after post-rate cut bounce: Bill Evans

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GUEST OBSERVER
 
Current Account: The broadest measure of the trade accounts – the current account – improved in the December quarter (smaller deficit), with the deficit falling from $10.2 billion to $3.85 billion – the smallest deficit in over 15 years.
 
Stronger trade sector: Net exports (exports less import_s) will contribute 0.2 percentage points to economic growth in the December quarter. CommSec estimates that the economy grew by 0.7 percent in the December quarter to be up 1.9 per cent over the year.
 
Consumer confidence hits 6-week high: The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 6.1 points (4.7 percent) to a 6-week high of 119.1 in the week to February 26.
 
Government sector GDP: Overall, spending by the government sector rose by 1.5 percent in the December quarter and should contribute 0.3 percentage points to December quarter economic growth.
 
Lending lifts: Private sector credit rose by 0.2 percent in January after a 0.7 percent gain in December. Investor housing finance lifted 0.6 percent in January to stand 6.6 percent higher over the year – the fastest growth in 11 months.
 
The balance of payments data has implications for trade-exposed businesses and companies vulnerable to changes in the Aussie dollar. The consumer confidence figures have implications for retailers, and other consumer-focussed businesses. Private sector credit figures have implications for finance providers, retailers, and companies dependent on business spending.
 
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
 
The Australian economy may have gone backwards in the September quarter, but the result for the December quarter is likely to be the polar opposite. Based on all the components currently available, the economy looks to have grown by a healthy 0.7 percent in the December. And while forecasts do have a margin for error the strength in dwelling investment, government spending, household consumption and net exports should ensure that Australia managed to stay clear of a technical recession. More importantly it is clear that activity levels have continued to improve in the past couple of months.
 
The shift from an economic contraction to an expansion is more important for household and business confidence. And in that context the latest reading on weekly consumer confidence is encouraging. Confidence levels lifted by almost 5 percent in the past week and are now holding at 6-week highs. Interestingly the outlook on family finances was far more positive – despite the news last week on the cuts to penalty rates.
 
The latest lending (private sector credit) figures suggest a modest pullback in borrowing. But it is import_ant to point out that lending recorded the biggest lift in 15 months in December and only partially gave some of that back in January. The weakness was largely due to a modest slide in business credit which would be expected given the slowdown in financing in the post-Christmas period.
 
Interestingly home lending continues to lift, dominated by investor credit growth. In fact annual growth in investor finance is now at an 11-month high. The measures taken by regulators to curb investment lending had a temporary impact that is now fading.
 
Overall the Reserve Bank is unlikely to be surprised with the latest results. No doubt policymakers will continue to discuss key issues like housing affordability, but overall the central bank seems upbeat on the medium-term outlook for the Australian economy. CommSec expects no change to interest rates over the rest of 2017.
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What do the figures show?
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
The broadest measure of Australia's external position - the current account – improved in the December quarter (smaller deficit), with the deficit falling from $10.2 billion to $3.85 billion.
The balance of goods and services was in deficit by $4.7 billion in the December quarter after a $3.5 billion deficit in the September quarter.
At the end of the December quarter, net foreign equity was $1.4 billion – essentially Australians own more assets overseas than foreign investors own here in Australia. But the positive net foreign equity position weakened by $5.8 billion over the December quarter.
The trade sector (exports less import_s) will contribute 0.2 percentage points to economic growth in the December quarter.
Terms of trade (ratio of export to import_ prices) rose by 9.1 cent to a 27-month high of 102.9 in the December quarter after a 2.3 percent increase in the June quarter. The terms of trade for goods rose by 11.3 percent and the terms of trade for services rose by 1.3 percent.
Net foreign debt fell from $1,048.6 billion to $1,023.1 billion as at the end of the December quarter.
GOVERNMENT FINANCES
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<li class="li3">Government consumption spending was flat in the December quarter after a 0.2 per cent fall in the September quarter. Total public investment rose by 7.7 per cent in the December quarter after falling by 7.8 per cent in the September quarter. Overall, spending by the government sector rose by 1.5 per cent in the December quarter.</li>
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CONSUMER SENTIMENT
The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 6.1 points (4.7 percent) to a 6-week high of 119.1 in the week to February 26. Confidence is up 7 percent over the year and above the average of 119.1 since 2014.
All five components of the index rose in the latest week
The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was up from +2 to +11;
The estimate of family finances over the next year was up from at +26 to +34;
Economic conditions over the next 12 months was up from 0 to +5;
Economic conditions over the next 5 years was up from +5 to +7;
The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up from +36 to +40:
The reading of inflation expectations two years ahead rose from 4.5 percent to 4.7 percent. Inflation expectations have now held above 4 per cent for the past 11 weeks.
PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT
Private sector credit (lending) rose by 0.2 percent in January after a 0.7 percent gain in December. Annual credit growth eased from 5.6 percent to 5.4 percent.
Housing credit grew by 0.5 percent in January to be up 6.3 percent on a year ago – equalling the December result and the slowest annual growth in 30 months.
Owner occupier housing credit rose by 0.5 percent in January to stand 6.3 percent higher than a year ago – the slowest growth in 15 months. Investor housing finance lifted 0.6 percent in January to stand 6.6 percent higher over the year – the fastest growth in 11 months.
Personal credit fell by 0.2 percent in January to be down 1.3 percent over the year – near the biggest annual decline in 4 ½ years.
Business credit fell by 0.3 percent in December after rising by a sizeable 1.1 percent in November. Business credit is 4.7 percent higher than a year ago.
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WHAT IS THE IMPORTANCE OF THE ECONOMIC DATA?
The quarterly Balance of Payments figures have few short-term effects on financial markets. The importance of the data is merely to highlight Australia’s trading position with the rest of the world as well as the contribution of foreign trade (exports less import_s) to the latest estimates of economic growth.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases the quarterly Government Finance Statistics near the start of March, June, September and December. The data details public sector consumption and investment spending and indicates the sector’s contribution to economic growth.
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
Private sector credit figures are released by the Reserve Bank on the last working day of the month. Credit is separated into three categories – housing, other personal and business. Private sector credit is effectively the amount of loans outstanding in the economy. If growth in lending is strong then it suggests that credit from financial institutions is freely available, underlying demand for assets such as cars and houses is firm and that the price of credit (interest rates) is attractive.
WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR INTEREST RATES AND INVESTORS?
The improvement in our broadest trade measure – the current account – is expected to continue. The mining investment boom has left us with expanded productive capacity. And exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will ramp up over the next year or so.
The ongoing strength in exports and improvement in the current account deficit will keep upward pressure on the Aussie dollar. No doubt the Reserve Bank would prefer a lower Australian dollar to help rebalance the economy away from mining to the non-mining sector.
The jobless rate is at a multi-year lows, interest rates are super-low, more homes are being built than ever before, retail spending is lifting and the farm sector prospects are bright. Even the global picture is brightening.
Interest rates will remain on hold over the rest of 2017.
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Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
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Economy set to rebound, consumers confident: Savanth Sebastian 

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NAB data shows dramatic falls in consumption-based spending and business payment inflows post COVID-19 containment measures, with the pace of decline continuing to accelerate quite rapidly across many industries.
Spending in the year to date has fallen heavily in all states and territories, with Victoria leading the way.
By industry sector, spending is down most in Administration &amp; Support Services, Accommodation &amp; Food Services and Transport, Postal &amp; Warehousing, with Construction the only sector recording growth.
A handful of sub-industries have seen spending growth including - Internet Publishing &amp; Broadcasting, Construction Services, Gambling Activities, Food Retailing and Building Cleaning &amp; Pest Control. Business payment inflows into NAB merchants have also fallen sharply.
Corporates continue to outperform (particularly compared to medium and small business) and inflows remain positive, but have fallen steeply in April.
By industry, the hit to inflows has been most apparent in the Accommodation &amp; Food Services (particularly Clubs, Pubs, Cafes, Restaurants &amp; Takeaway Food) and Arts &amp; Recreation Services (particularly Amusement &amp; Other Activities and Sports &amp; Physical Recreation) - sectors that have borne the brunt of forced business closures and social isolation measures.
Inflows are also down heavily in Mining.
Inflows are holding up best in Wholesale Trade - the only sector recording growth in inflows.
Other industries holding up comparatively well include Health Care &amp; Social Assistance and Professional, Scientific &amp; Technical Services, although payment incomes are well down on the previous month.
Big falls have also been recorded in parts of Retail including Clothing, Footwear &amp; Personal Accessories, Department Stores and Motor Vehicles. Only two sub-sectors reported positive gains in payment inflows - Specialised Food Retailing &amp; and Hardware, Building &amp; Garden Supplies.
 Overall, consumption spending has fallen 19.5% (not seasonally adjusted) since the start of the year. Spending over the year to date has fallen heavily in all states and territories. The steepest falls over the year to date are in VIC (-23.0%), followed by the ACT (-20.7%), WA (-20.5%) and NSW (-20.4%). Spending is currently holding up best in TAS (-14.9%) and the NT (-15.0%).
 During these extraordinary times we have taken the decision to publish aggregated customer datacategorised by industry segment with the view of helping to provide clarity around which segments of theeconomy have been most affected by the broader macroeconomic trends at play. NAB takes data privacy veryseriously. All customer transaction data has been aggregated and no individual’s data is specificallyidentified or analysed as part of this process. The data used in this report will not be sold or made publiclyavailable, but insights from the data will be shared with the Australian people.NAB data shows dramatic falls in consumption-based spending and business payment inflows post COVID-19containment measures, with the pace of decline continuing to accelerate quite rapidly across manyindustries.Spending in the year to date has fallen heavily in all states and territories, with Victoria leading the way. Byindustry sector, spending is down most in Administration &amp; Support Services, Accommodation &amp; FoodServices and Transport, Postal &amp; Warehousing, with Construction the only sector recording growth. Ahandful of sub-industries have seen spending growth including - Internet Publishing &amp; Broadcasting,Construction Services, Gambling Activities, Food Retailing and Building Cleaning &amp; Pest Control.Business payment inflows into NAB merchants have also fallen sharply. Corporates continue to outperform(particularly compared to medium and small business) and inflows remain positive, but have fallen steeply inApril. By industry, the hit to inflows has been most apparent in the Accommodation &amp; Food Services(particularly Clubs, Pubs, Cafes, Restaurants &amp; Takeaway Food) and Arts &amp; Recreation Services (particularlyAmusement &amp; Other Activities and Sports &amp; Physical Recreation) - sectors that have borne the brunt offorced business closures and social isolation measures. Inflows are also down heavily in Mining.Inflows are holding up best in Wholesale Trade - the only sector recording growth in inflows. Otherindustries holding up comparatively well include Health Care &amp; Social Assistance and Professional, Scientific&amp; Technical Services, although payment incomes are well down on the previous month.Big falls have also been recorded in parts of Retail including Clothing, Footwear &amp; Personal Accessories,Department Stores and Motor Vehicles. Only two sub-sectors reported positive gains in payment inflows -Specialised Food Retailing &amp; and Hardware, Building &amp; Garden Supplies
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Consumption spending down 20% due to COVID-19 measures: NAB

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Remember when our retail spend was shifting from buying things to buying experiences? That was only four months ago.
Since then, Australians have been spending more at supermarkets and on consumer electronics than on apparel and at department stores. Our expenditure on experiences, in particular travel, has been almost non-existent. It was therefore interesting to hear that in China there has been a rebound in luxury spending post COVID-19 lockdowns.
(Spending excessively after a period when one has had limited opportunities to spend has emerged after the lockdown, where in several Chinese cities, consumers flocked the various brand outlets to beat the lockdown blues.)
The most recent retail trade data for May did show an element of ‘revenge spending’ by Australian consumers. After plunging 17.7% in April, spending bounced back 16.3% in May. June is likely to look similarly positive, although, the Melbourne lockdowns are likely to start to drag it back again in July.
At the beginning of the first lockdown in mid-March, I thought that the most impacted property sector would be shopping centres, but it has remained surprisingly resilient despite the enormous challenges for retailers.
While the sector has remained somewhat resilient, the vacancy rate has risen. According to JLL, the national average shopping centre vacancy rate rose to 5.1% in June from 3.8% six months earlier. This rate excluded temporary closures.
By far the most impacted precincts have been CBDs where the vacancy rate has now hit 10%. Working from home has been disastrous for CBD retailing. The other big shift has been the acceleration of online retailing. In a three-month time period, it has gone from 9% of retail sales to 10.5%. Not exactly a runaway pace but a sharp increase over a short time period.
For now, our expenditure on travel, eating out and entertainment outside the home is likely to remain far more muted. Meanwhile expenditure at supermarkets and on takeaway food is likely to be far more positive. While I can’t see myself rushing out to buy luxury brands any time soon, the rush to the shops in China is hopefully a good news story for shopping centres over the next 12 months.
NERIDA CONISBEE is the Chief Economist at REA
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Can revenge spending help save retail property? REA's Nerida Conisbee

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The last time consumer prices fell by 1.9 per cent over a quarter – that is, over a three month period – was in 1931.
Back then it was the ‘C series index’ rather than the ‘consumer price index’. Just like today, those times – back in the late 1920s and early 1930s – were remarkable, being the time of a global depression. But fortunately policymakers today have responded differently to back then, applying significant fiscal and monetary stimulus to limit the length and severity of the economic downturn.
So prices are tipped to rebound in the current quarter. The last thing anyone wants to see is deflation – a sustained period of falling prices – because that could see the current economic downturn being extended.
<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/115884-rents-saw-their-first-quarterly-fall-in-50-years" target="_blank">Prices fell sharply in the June quarter for a number of reasons – principally, low rents</a>, subsidised child care, free preschool and lower petrol prices. The best guide to underlying prices is the ‘trimmed mean’. This measure shows prices down 0.1 per cent in the quarter to be up 1.2 per cent over the year. So low annual inflation, not deflation.
In the current quarter – the September quarter – consumer prices are expected to lift from the lows. The headline rate of inflation is tipped to lift 1.4 per cent, pushing the annual growth rate up to 0.4 per cent. The annual trimmed mean is expected near 1.4 per cent.
While deflation is not expected to take hold, there is no room for complacency. Consumers should be given every encouragement to keep spending. If consumers start holding off on purchases on the hope of cheaper prices, then we will have a problem – a problem that would require more fiscal and monetary stimulus being applied.
The Reserve Bank has a long-run series on inflation back to 1922. Data can be found here:
<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/inflation/measures-cpi" target="_blank">https://www.rba.gov.au/inflation/measures-cpi.html</a>
What do the figures show?
Overall result: The Consumer Price Index – the main measure of inflation in Australia – fell by 1.9 per cent in the June quarter (consensus: -2.0 per cent). It was the biggest ever quarterly fall for the CPI (since 1948). The last time consumer prices fell as much (C series index) was in September quarter 1931. In seasonally adjusted terms the CPI fell by 2.0 per cent in the June quarter. The annual rate of headline eased from a 5½-year high of 2.2 per cent to -0.3 per cent – the lowest result since September quarter 1997.
Underlying measures: The Reserve Bank monitors three measures to derive the underlying inflation rate. The trimmed mean fell by 0.1 per cent in the June quarter (1.2 per cent annual); the weighted median rose by 0.1 per cent (1.3 per cent annual) and the CPI less volatile items fell by 1.3 per cent (0.4 per cent annual). Overall, underlying inflation was flat in the quarter and rose by around 1.25 per cent over the year. Market goods and services less volatile items rose by 0.3 per cent in the quarter to be up 2.0 per cent on the year.
Capital cities: Sydney -2.3 per cent in the quarter (annual -1.0 per cent); Melbourne -0.8 per cent (+0.3 per cent); Brisbane -2.2 per cent (-1.0 per cent); Adelaide -1.0 per cent (+0.8 per cent); Perth -1.2 per cent (+0.1 per cent); Hobart -1.4 per cent (+1.3 per cent); Darwin -2.5 per cent (-1.8 per cent); Canberra -2.3 per cent (-0.6 per cent).
Main Negative Contributors:
The most significant price falls in the June quarter were child care (-95.0 per cent), automotive fuel (-19.3 per cent), preschool and primary education (-16.2 per cent) and rents (-1.3 per cent).
Child care: The ABS reported, “A fall of 95.0 per cent in child care was the main contributor due to free child care during the quarter. Excluding the impact of child care, this group would have risen 2.3 per cent.”
Housing: The ABS said, “Rents recorded the first quarterly fall since the series commenced in 1972. Weak rental market conditions as a result of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions and rising vacancy rates saw rents fall in most capital cities in the June quarter.”
The 2.5 per cent “fall in electricity was mainly driven by utility rebates in some capital cities to support households from the impacts of COVID-19.”
Automotive fuel: The ABS said, the “19.3 per cent fall in automotive fuel (was) due to low global demand resulting from COVID-19 restrictions. Automotive fuel fell in April (-15.9 per cent), and rose in May (+0.9 per cent) and June (+9.2 per cent)”
Education: The ABS said, “A fall of 16.2 per cent in preschool and primary education was the main contributor driven by free before and after school care and free preschool for term 2 in NSW, Victoria and Queensland.”
Food: the ABS said, “Falls of 1.4 per cent in vegetables and 1.1 per cent in beef and veal partially offset the rise this quarter. Improved weather conditions saw a range of fresh produce return to typical seasonal prices, while mince meat saw temporary discounts.”
Main Positive Contributors:
The most significant offsetting price falls June quarter were tobacco (+2.7 per cent), other non-durable household products (+4.5 per cent) and furniture (+3.8 per cent).
Furnishings, household equipment and services: the ABS said, “Rises of 3.8 per cent in furniture and 3.0 per cent in major household appliances partially offset the fall, due to strong demand for products such as home office furniture and fridges and freezers.”
Rises of 4.5 per cent in other non-durable household products and 6.2 per cent in cleaning and maintenance products were seen due to a reduction in specials and genuine price increases for toilet paper and cleaning products.
Recreation and culture: the ABS said, “A rise of 1.8 per cent in Audio, visual and computing equipment was due to strong demand for products such as TVs. This was the first quarterly rise in this series since 2015.”
Health: the ABS said, “falls of 0.5 per cent in pharmaceutical products and 0.2 per cent in medical and hospital services were the main contributors. The fall in pharmaceutical products was due to increases in the proportion of consumers who qualify for subsidies under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS). The fall in medical and hospital services was due to a combination of increased bulk billing as well as a freeze on private health insurance premiums, which typically rise on 1 April each year.”
Food: the ABS said, “Rises of 0.8 per cent in take-away and fast foods, 3.8 per cent in fish and other seafood, 2.0 per cent in water, soft drinks and juices, and 6.1 per cent in other cereal products, were the main contributors this quarter. High demand saw a reduction in specials and genuine price increases on a range of long-life products such as canned tuna and canned meat, rice and pasta.” 
Prices of tradables: The tradables component of the ‘All groups CPI’ fell by 1.3 per cent in the June quarter to be down 0.5 per cent over the year.
Tradable goods component fell 1.3 per cent mainly due to automotive fuel (-19.3 per cent).
Tradable services component fell 1.9 per cent due to international holiday travel and accommodation (-2.0 per cent).
Prices of non-tradables: The non-tradables component of the ‘All groups CPI’ fell by 2.3 per cent in the June quarter to be down 0.2 per cent over the year.
Non-tradable goods component rose 0.2 per cent, due to tobacco products (+2.7 per cent).
Non-tradable services component fell 3.6 per cent, due to child care (-95.0 per cent).
In seasonally adjusted terms, the tradables component of the ‘All groups CPI’ fell 1.3 per cent and the non-tradables component fell 2.2 per cent.
Tradable goods are those items whose prices are largely determined on the world market. Non-tradable prices are more affected by domestic economic conditions.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The Reserve Bank sets interest rates with a view of keeping inflation between 2-3 per cent over an economic cycle. Inflation is well below the lower bound of the range at present. And the expectation is that inflation will remain contained for some time. As a result, interest rates will spend an extended period at generational lows.
Super-low rates is a great result for borrowers. But it represents on-going challenges for savers. The added complication that listed companies are expected to slash dividends when they report over the next month.
Businesses that want an inflation guide for setting selling prices or rents are best advised to use the ‘trimmed mean’. The Reserve Bank expects annual trimmed inflation to be 1.25-1.50 per cent through to mid-2022.
Does it feel like deflation? Does it feel like the biggest quarterly fall in prices in 89 years? If you were outfitting your home office with furniture and computers, probably not. If you are renting, with children in child care, and paid electricity bills and health insurance premiums in the past quarter, then you probably noticed a big drop in outlays. Similarly if you drive a fair bit – petrol prices slumped in the quarter.
But apart from Victoria, expect more ‘normal’ growth of consumer prices in the months ahead. Petrol prices have certainly lifted and the period of free child care has come to an end.
The inflation measure ‘market goods and services, excluding volatile items’, rose 0.3 per cent in the quarter and 2 per cent over the year. This measure gives a better sense of ‘normal’.
CRAIG JAMES is the Chief Economist at CommSec
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CPI fell for the first time since 1931: CommSec's Craig James

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GUEST OBSERVER
Airfares: In smoothed terms, discount fares fell by 7.0 percent over the year to March. But business class airfares rose at a smoothed 7.4 percent annual rate with “restricted economy” fares up by 4.5 percent.
The airfares data provides insights on the airlines sector and insights on consumer spending.
What does it all mean?
There are still good deals to be had with discount airfares. Latest data shows that discount fares in March were 13 percent down on a year ago – or down seven percent if you smooth out the bumps that can occur in the monthly series. However business class and restricted economy airfares are higher, not lower than a year ago.
Over the past two years business class airfares have been lifting at a near 10 percent annual rate with restricted economy airfares rising at a 6.6 percent annual rate.
The lift in all airfares except discount fares as well as lower jet fuel prices and modest wage growth highlights the positive operating conditions that currently exist for airlines.
 
<a href="/images/2016/03/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-18%20at%2012.20.24%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 
<img src="/images/2016/03/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-18%20at%2012.20.24%20PM.png" alt="" width="721" height="518">
For budding air travellers there continues to be value in shopping around for the best deals. In real (inflation adjusted) terms, discount airfares are only 5 percent above the lowest levels recorded in the 22-year history of the series.
The Head of the Reserve Bank’s Financial Stability Department, Luci Ellis, has delivered a deep and thoughtful speech covering a range of topics associated by financial market cycles. In the speech Luci Ellis said that she wasn’t concerned by ‘doom and gloom’ talk, specifically: “people who shout ‘bubble’ every time asset prices rise. <a href="/expert-insights/51644-booms-busts-cycles-and-risk-appetite-rba-s-luci-ellis" target="_blank">Read it here</a>.
If it gives a few other people pause and makes them open their eyes to the real risks, it is not such a bad thing. I would rather that, than if everyone were egging the boom on.”
There were some subtle warnings in the speech for property investors as well as those who are tempted to take on too much debt. The comments seem to suggest that the Reserve Bank still remains conflicted about the role of monetary policy in boom/bust events.
What do the figures show?
Airfares
The Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) reports that business class airfares rose by 0.1 percent in March to stand 8.1 percent higher than a year ago, slightly down from the fastest growth in 10 months. In smoothed terms, business class airfares are up 7.4 percent on the year, the fastest growth pace in 12 months.
“Restricted economy” airfares rose by 0.1 percent in March after falling by 1.6 per cent in February. Restricted economy airfares are up 5.7 percent on a year ago. In smoothed terms restricted economy fares are up 4.5 percent over the year. Airfares have been rising at a 6.6 percent average annual pace for the past two years.
Discount airfares  fell by 6.6 percent in March after rising by 7.5 percent in February. Discount fares are 13.0 percent lower than a year ago. In smoothed terms, discount airfares are down 7.0 percent on a year ago, close to the biggest annual decline recorded in the past 40 months.
In real terms, discount airfares are only 4.7 percent above the lowest levels recorded.
What is the importance of the economic data?
The Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE)  “provides economic analysis, research and statistics on infrastructure, transport and regional development issues to inform Australian Government policy development and wider community understanding.” The airfares data is useful in gauging inflation trends and providing insights on the aviation sector.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
Low discount airfares merely highlight that Aussie consumers are saving on some purchases, allowing them to spend more in other areas. More specifically while housing has become less affordable, consumers continue to rack up savings on cars, petrol, travel, food and clothing, freeing up dollars to be spent on buying or renting homes.
The operating environment for airlines remains broadly favourable, but recent increases in oil prices and the Aussie dollar needs to be watched carefully.
 Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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Warnings from the RBA's Luci Ellis: CommSec's Craig James 

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GUEST OBSERVER
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<div>The Commonwealth Bank Business Sales Indicator (BSI) – a measure of economy-wide spending – rose by just 0.1 percent in trend terms in February, the slowest growth in two years.</div>
<div>
 Spending had lifted at an unsustainable pace of 0.7-0.8 percent between September to November last year before slowing over the past three months.</div>
<div>
 Annual trend growth in sales stood at 5.0 per cent, down from 5.3 percent in January and the slowest growth pace in five months.</div>
<div>
 The more volatile seasonally adjusted BSI rose by 0.6 percent in February after falling by 0.4 percent in December and January. Annual growth stands at 4.5 percent.</div>
<div>
 At a sectoral level, 11 of the 19 industry sectors expanded in trend terms in February, down from 14 sectors in both December and January. And sales rose in five of the eight states and territories in February.
The Commonwealth Bank BSI is obtained by tracking the value of credit and debit card transactions processed through Commonwealth Bank merchant facilities. The BSI covers spending broadly across the economy rather than just retail sales, including spending on automobiles, personal services and airlines.
What does it all mean?
Spending growth looks weak, but that represents some statistical payback from above-average growth late last year. Annual growth near 5 per cent is still healthy.
Still, it does appear that consumers are cautious, reflected in recent confidence or sentiment surveys. But spending growth is solid in Tasmania due to strong tourism flows. And that strength is also represented in spending at hotels and motels across the country.
What does the data show?
Economy-wide spending slowed further in February. The Commonwealth Bank Business Sales Indicator (BSI) – a measure of economy-wide spending – rose by 0.1 percent in trend terms in February after lifting 0.3 percent in January and expanding 0.5 percent in December.
Over 2016, sales lifted at a soft 0.2 per cent month pace from March to June before picking up to a monthly 0.7-0.8 per cent growth pace between September and November. Spending growth has averaged 0.4 per cent a month over the past year.
Annual trend sales growth slowed from 5.3 per cent to a 5- month low of 5.0 per cent in February.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="column">The more volatile seasonally-adjusted BSI rose by 0.6 percent in February after falling by 0.4 per cent in December and January. Annual growth stands at 4.5 per cent.
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<div>The Commonwealth Bank BSI is obtained by tracking the value of credit and debit card transactions processed through Commonwealth Bank merchant facilities. And in line with the practice of the Bureau of Statistics with retail trade data, seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of the BSI are obtained by applying statistical software. The seasonally adjusted and trend BSI results permit analysis of the broader underlying trends that may be hidden in the raw data.</div>
<div>
 Across sectors, 11 of the 19 industry sectors rose in trend terms in February. The biggest drop in sales occurred at Mail Order/Telephone Order Providers (down 0.9 percent) from Business Services (down 0.6 percent) and Retail Stores (down 0.5 percent).</div>
<div>
 On the other side of the equation, the strongest gains in sales occurred in Service Providers (up 1.4 percent) from Automobiles &amp; Vehicles (up 1.1 percent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Other notable trend increases in sales occurred in Hotels &amp; Motels (up 0.9 percent) and Professional Services &amp; Membership Organisations (up 0.6 percent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In annual terms in February, only three of the 19 industry sectors contracted: Mail Order/Telephone Order Providers, Transportation and Retail Stores.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the other end of the scale, sectors with strongest annual growth in February included: Hotels &amp; Motels (up 15.1 percent), Service Providers (up 13.0 percent) and Automobiles &amp; Vehicles (up 12.8 percent).</div>
<div>
 Across states and territories in February, sales were stronger in five states and territories. Strongest were Tasmania (up 1.1 percent), followed by Victoria (up 0.5 percent), South Australia (up 0.4 per cent), Western Australia and Northern Territory (up 0.1 percent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Spending was flat in Queensland and sales fell 0.3 percent in NSW and fell 0.2 percent in the ACT.</div>
<div>
 Spending has consistently increased in Western Australia for 69 months, for 67 months in South Australia and for 61 months in Tasmania. In annual terms all states and territories had sales above a year ago. Strongest growth was South Australia (up 9.0 per cent) from ACT (up 7.3 per cent), Tasmania (up 7.0 per cent), Western Australia (up 6.1 per cent), Queensland (up 5.8 per cent), NSW (up 4.5 per cent), Victoria (up 3.7 per cent) and Northern Territory (up 0.7 per cent).
 
 
What is the importance of the report?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Commonwealth Bank releases its Business Sales Index around the 20th each month. The data provides a broader perspective of consumer spending. The Business Sales Indicator includes transactions made at traditional retail establishments such as supermarkets, clothing stores and cafes &amp; restaurants and as such is more comparable to the ABS Household Final Consumption Expenditure released on a quarterly basis.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Business Sales Indicator also covers businesses such as airlines, car dealers and utilities such as water and electricity companies as well as motels, business, professional and government services and wholesalers.
 
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
CommSec expects no change in official interest rates for the foreseeable future.</div>
<div>
 The outlook for spending remains favourable with interest rates low, rising home prices boosting wealth, wage 
growth still exceeding that of prices and job ads near 5-year highs. </div>
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<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/19/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-20%20at%208.10.52%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/19/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-20%20at%208.10.52%20AM.png" alt=""></div>
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<div>
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx">CommSec</a>. 
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