Consumer Confidence

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">Very few cases of COVID-19 in Australia, with a handful of cases returning from overseas and headed to quarantine. </p>
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<br><div>Recoveries continue to comfortably outstrip new cases.</div>
<br><div>And, importantly, we're consistently seeing zero deaths reported on a daily basis, with few serious cases even going as far as ICU. </div>
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<br><div>There are 5 cases remaining in ICU nationally, against the expanded capacity of 7,500 beds.</div>
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<div><strong>Confidence returning</strong></div>
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<div>Consumer confidence increased for an 8th consecutive week, up by +0.4 per cent to a reading of 92.7 points according to ANZ-Roy Morgan.</div>
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<div>Future financial conditions gained by +3.2 per cent and is approaching its long term average reading.</div>
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<br><div><span><em>Source: ANZ-Roy Morgan</em></span></div>
<br><div>Credit card usage data shows that Aussies are willing and able to spend again, but realistically travel restrictions needs to be eased before the economy can begin to fire up properly.</div>
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<strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
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Confidence up for 8th consecutive week: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>Confidence means a lot to real estate markets. And it’s been a long time since Australian real estate has had such a concerted shot in the arm as on Tuesday this week.</span></p>
<p>Against the predictions of virtually every economist in the land, proving yet again how little they understand, the RBA dropped its official interest rate to depths not seen before. Most of the major lenders have dropped their mortgage rates accordingly.</p>
<p>The same economists who incorrectly predicted the RBA board’s decision will also tell you that record low interest rates equals a property boom. Goodness knows where that comes from – certainly not from any historical precedent and certainly not from the experience of recent years where only Sydney has had a market worthy of being described as a boom (no, not even Melbourne’s performance warrants the boom tag).</p>
<p>I note that RBA Governor Glenn Stevens doesn’t see the rate cut reigniting boom scenarios. "In reaching today's decision, the board took careful note of developments in the housing market, where indications are that the effects of supervisory measures are strengthening lending standards and that price pressures have tended to abate," he said in a statement. "At present, the potential risks of lower interest rates in this area are less than they were a year ago."</p>
<p>So I don’t expect the rate cut, replicated by three of the four major banks, to generate anything dramatic in the market. But it will generally help the psyche of property consumers. And the next affordability index will likely show a further improvement.</p>
<p>On the same day, Federal Treasurer Scott Morrison delivered his first Budget, which reiterated strongly that negative gearing won't change, nor will investors be slugged more on capital gains tax.</p>
<p>“We will not remove or limit negative gearing,” Morrison said in his Budget speech. “Those earning less than $80,000 make up two-thirds of those who use negative gearing. They are teachers, nurses, police officers, office workers and tradesmen. We do not consider that taxing them more on their investments is a plan for jobs and growth.”</p>
<p>Amen to that. The tragic thing about those who justify their anti-gearing stance on the grounds that it’s all about housing affordability is that scrapping negative gearing won’t make housing cheaper. Even Bill Shorten says it won’t force down the value of homes, therefore affordability won’t improve. Shorten, like so many others, doesn’t understand the affordability issue and is targeting the wrong culprits.</p>
<p>Another event on Tuesday was publication of building approvals data which showed there’s still some life in building approvals, although the monthly bounce may be an aberration because the longer-term trend is down (from record high levels, it must be said).</p>
<p>This closely followed the release of price data for April, which shows that the home value index has risen in the past three months of the year in seven of the eight capital cities.</p>
<p>That includes a 3.9% rise in Sydney. That would tend to rubbish claims of a collapse in values and a bursting of the bubble. I say “tend” because this is one set of figures from one source and it’s not uncommon for another major source to publish figures that are largely contradictory.</p>
<p>Based on the CoreLogic numbers, however, Adelaide’s prices rose 4.5% in the past three months and Brisbane was up 2.8%. I’ve been predicting good growth in those two cities, but I’m not getting overly excited because of what I said in the previous paragraph.</p>
<p>But, according to these figures, even Perth and Darwin showed glimmers of price growth in the latest quarter.</p>
<p><span> </span></p>
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Going against economists show how little the RBA understands:Terry Ryder

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div>Consumer confidence rose +1.2 per cent last week to 93.5, according to ANZ-Roy Morgan, a 13-week high.</div>
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<div>However, confidence levels remain well below the monthly average since 1990 of 112.6, and even still a reading of 93.5 is equivalent to what Australia experienced through the financial crisis. </div>
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<div><em>Source: ANZ-Roy Morgan</em></div>
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<div>On March 29 the COVID shock saw consumer confidence reading hit the lowest level in half a century at 65.3, but it has since rebounded by 43 per cent. </div>
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<div>Curiously confidence levels in Melbourne have picked up this week to a level 'a touch below neutral' -  possibly on optimism of restrictions being eased - and confidence levels in Melbourne are now higher than in Sydney. </div>
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<div><strong>RBA update</strong></div>
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<div>The RBA put out some state level payroll jobs figures this week which showed that jobs have been steadily picking up elsewhere, but not in Victoria. </div>
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<p>However, the payrolls recovery has stalled this week, and indeed it cannot really take hold until the Victorian economy sees restrictions broadly eased. </p>
<div>Separate analysis from UBS highlighted how small businesses have disproportionately felt the pain this year, and this is reflected in hiring figures relative to large businesses. </div>
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<div>This has raised the prospect of a potential further reduction of interest rates, as discussed today by the RBA’s Guy Debelle.</div>
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<div>The RBA has now expanded its balance sheet significantly, almost doubling from from $170 billion in February to $300 billion, through its various policy measures. with a further 'decently large' expansion to come. </div>
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<div>In the money markets swap rates are now at record lows. </div>
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<div>Banks are now allowing their offshore funding to roll off, which has reduced the share of offshore bonds funding, and this has been replaced by take-up of the cheaper Term Funding Facility (TFF). </div>
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<div>It's interesting to note that the Chinese economy has come surging back from its 10 per cent decline in the March 2020 quarter, to the extent that its output is now greater than it was at the end of 2019, as targeted stimulus measures have successfully bolstered production.</div>
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<div>Australia has gone down a different route, focusing instead on income support, to the extent that household income actually <em>increased</em> over the previous quarter, which is a very unusual outcome for a recession.</div>
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<div>This was driven by a range of factors including lower interest rates, super withdrawals, mortgage and rent deferrals, and all of the various government stimulus measures (including JobKeeper payments, and JobSeeker). </div>
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<div>No wonder them Harvey Norman shares have come roaring back! </div>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em><span> </span>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger </em></p>
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Consumer confidence hits three month high: Pete Wargent

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<p>New research from Aussie home loans has revealed that uncertainty arising as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is leading two thirds (65%) of Australians with property plans to lose confidence in their ability to achieve their property goals.</p>
<p>Consumer confidence in the property market has also collapsed from 76 percent in January of this year, to just 46 percent in June.</p>
<p>More than 6 in 10 – or 61 percent – of respondents further indicated that the pandemic has resulted in changes to their property plans, including a third (35%) who say they have delayed them.</p>
<p>The research, commissioned by leading mortgage broker Aussie, asked the same questions of Australians pre-pandemic in January, and again in June, highlighting the doubt COVID-19 has cast over Australians’ plans to buy or refinance their homes.</p>
<p>Despite the uncertainties, 42 percent of Australians said they want to take advantage of the market, but do not know how. This has led to over half (54%) wanting more guidance when it comes to their property and finances, while a third (36%) said they would be more likely to engage a broker now to help them better navigate the property market. </p>
<p>Aussie customer data supports the statistics, with enquires remaining relatively steady. Aussie saw a 1.8 percent increase between January to July 2020, relative to the same time period last year, while lodgements are up 16 percent year-on-year, showing that that many Australians are looking for ways to navigate the current environment to see how they can make their property plans a reality.</p>
<p>Aussie Chief Executive Officer, James Symond, said the strong number of enquiries shows that there is still interest in the market.</p>
<p>“There are many opportunities available right now that could make it favourable for Australians to enter the market, invest, downsize or refinance, including lender cashback incentives, reduced interest rates and government initiatives, such as the First Home Owner Grant, the $25,000 HomeBuilder grant, and the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme (FHLDS),” Symond said.</p>
<p>“During what has been a challenging time for many Australians, including a change in personal circumstances or financial outlook for some, brokers have an important role to play in helping Australians understand their options and make smart choices to keep their property goals on track,” he concluded.</p>
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Two thirds of Australian lack property confidence during COVID-19: Aussie

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">The worsening coronavirus outbreak and associated rout in financial markets have had a major impact on sentiment this month. The Index has hit a five year low. In fact it is the second lowest level of the Index since the Global Financial Crisis when the Index bottomed out at 79, (with an average read of 86.8 over the period).</span></p>
<p>Therefore, while clearly very concerned, consumers are, for now, taking a more balanced approach to the situation than we saw during the GFC. </p>
<p>Other evidence of this can be found by comparing the ‘family finances’ and ‘time to buy a major household item’ components of the Index which registered 63.7 and 88.2 respectively at the low point of the GFC compared to the current reads of 82.7 and 111.4 respectively.</p>
<p>The survey detail shows consumers are rightly concerned about the near term outlook for the economy but are less perturbed about their finances or the longer term outlook for the economy. That is consistent with the notion that virus-related disruptions will be large but temporary.</p>
<p>At the time of last month’s survey, there were just over thirty thousand confirmed cases of COVID-19 with over 99% in China. A month later there are well over one hundred thousand cases globally with a quarter of these recorded outside of China, with infections rising rapidly in many countries.</p>
<p>Financial markets have also reacted sharply. After showing little change in February, the ASX dropped 11.5% between the February and March surveys (and by a further 4.5% since the latest survey closed). These falls have been despite a 25bp rate cut from the RBA and an emergency 50bp rate cut from the US FOMC. </p>
<p>Responses to additional questions on news recall show by far the highest recall was for news on the economy – 45% of consumers recalling news on this topic with over 85% saying that news as unfavourable. News on ‘international conditions’ also had a relatively high recall rate (25%) and was also assessed by around 85% of respondents as unfavourable. </p>
<p>About 20% of consumers recalled news on ‘interest rates’. The RBA cut rates by 0.25% at its March meeting. However, we again saw consumers assess this news more negatively than usual. As we have noted previously, the favourable/unfavourable mix on ‘interest rate’ news following rate cuts over the five years to 2016 was around 50/50 but has been closer to 30/70 for cuts in 2019 and 2020. That lukewarm response is despite the major banks passing on the rate cut in full to mortgage interest rates.</p>
<p>Across the five component sub-indexes, the biggest fall was around expectations for the economy, particularly over the near term. The ‘economy, next 12 months’ sub-index recorded a spectacular 12.8% drop taking it to 77.9, a five year low but still comfortably above the GFC low of 62.9. In contrast, the ‘economy, next 5 years’ sub-index only fell 1.3%, to 90.4. Clearly consumers expect very challenging conditions near term but are less concerned about medium term prospects.</p>
<p>Assessments of family finances were relatively stable. The ‘finances vs a year ago’ sub-index rose 1.8% although at 82.7 it remains 6.6% below the historical average. Despite the recent carnage in equity markets respondents were balanced about the 12 month outlook for their finances with ‘finances, next 12 months’ sub-index down by only 1.7%.<br>Notably, despite the RBA’s 25bp rate cut and that move by major banks to reduce mortgage rates by the full 25bps, sentiment amongst consumers with a mortgage declined 2.8% in the month.</p>
<p>At the same time, sentiment amongst older age groups fell more sharply, particularly those aged over 65 (–13.8%). This likely reflects several factors including the impact of lower deposit rates on incomes, the hit to superannuation from the sharemarket sell off and perhaps also a higher degree of concern about health risks from the coronavirus, which has a markedly higher fatality rate amongst those in older age groups.</p>
<p><strong>BILL EVANS</strong><em> is Westpac's chief economist</em></p>
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Consumer Sentiment falls to a five year low: Bill Evans

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<p><em><a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/March/er20190312BullAustralianBusinessConditionsFeb.pdf">E</a>XPERT OBSERVER</em></p>
<p>As the 2019 year draws towards a close, conditions in the Australian economy remain weak. Policy stimulus is struggling to gain traction. The NAB business survey for November reports that business conditions have stabilised at low levels.</p>
<p>The survey was conducted from November 19 to 29. Given this timing, the survey is unlikely to have fully captured the recent “sales” - with Black Friday falling on November 29 and Cyber Monday on December 2.</p>
<p>The business conditions index was unchanged at +4, a below average reading. The index has moved broadly sideways since April, after tumbling from +19 over the first half of 2018.</p>
<p>Business confidence fell by 2pts to 0, reversing the 2pt lift in October. Confidence rallied in May, after the Federal election, but the bounce was short-lived. The lack of confidence is understandable in this challenging environment - with weak domestic sales and a slowing global economy, with heightened uncertainty around international trade.</p>
<p>The private business surveys correctly foreshadowed the sharp loss of momentum in the Australian economy from mid-2018, a shift that was led by the home building cycle turning from boom-to-bust, as well as by consumers.</p>
<p>Australia’s September quarter economic report card was another disappointing one - confirming feeble and uneven growth, at 1.7% for the year. The private sector economy is in recession, with private demand contracting by 0.3% in the quarter and declining by 0.4% over the year.</p>
<p>The NAB survey suggests that weak conditions have extended into the December quarter and there is a lack of momentum heading into 2020.</p>
<p>As to business conditions detail for November: trading conditions fell by 1pt to +6; profitability improved but remained weak, up 3pts to +3; and employment conditions moved sideways, at +4.</p>
<p>The survey suggests that employment conditions at this level are consistent with job gains averaging 18k per month near-term (down a little from the 20k per month average for the 2019 year to date).</p>
<p>We note that recently the official jobs data has fallen into line with the more downbeat forward indicators from the private business surveys to be consistent with the sluggish output results. The six month annualised pace of jobs growth has slowed to 1.6%, down from 2.5% in March.</p>
<p>Forward orders are weak, after a one-off gain in October, falling by 5pts to -2.</p>
<p>By industry, while aggregate business conditions have stabilised there has been some shift in the mix. The goods sectors have tended to weaken further since April, while services have improved somewhat. The consumer sectors have lifted off their lows, but retail is still as weak levels.</p>
<p>By state, weakness in trend business conditions is broadly based. Of note, the survey reports that conditions have eased in recent months in WA, mirroring the trend in the mining sector, as commodity prices moderate. Over the past three months, conditions in Qld are reportedly the softest of any of the states.</p>
<p><em>Read full report <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/December/er20191210BullAustralianBusinessConditions2019Nov.pdf">'Australian business conditions November' (PDF 201kb)</a></em></p>
<p><em><strong>ANDREW HANLAN </strong>i<em>s a senior economist for Westpac</em><br></em></p>
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Australian business conditions & confidence stablise: Andrew Hanlan

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<p>Consumer confidence fell over the weekend, an ANZ survey has suggested.</p>
<p>It appears there is a view the latest cut to the cash rate by the Reserve Bank of Australia was a signal of worsening economic conditions.</p>
<p>The ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence index dipped 1.1% from the previous week, with respondents' perception of the economy - including the outlook for the next 12 months - retreating 3.6% and prospects about conditions in the next five years sliding 1.7%.</p>
<p>But the weekly measure of sentiment showed a 3.7% rise in how people felt about their financial condition compared to a year ago.</p>
<p>It was based on about 1,000 face-to-face interviews conducted on Saturdays and Sunday.</p>
<p>Consumer sentiment is still above the average of 114.4 points held since 2014 and the longer term average of 113.1 points since 1990. </p>
<p>But three out of the five major components of the index fell last week:</p>
<ul>
<li>The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was up from +9.0 points to +13.0 points; </li>
<li>The estimate of family finances over the next year was up from +25.5 points to +27.1 points;</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next 12 months was down from +7.2 points to +3.3 points;</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down from +12.8 points to +10.9 points; </li>
<li>The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was down from +40.3 points to +33.8 points. </li>
</ul>
<p>The measure of inflation expectations rose from 3.7% to 3.9%.</p>
<p>NAB's latest business survey also suggested that the business sector has lost significant momentum over the past year with the recent run of results also suggesting that the economy is unlikely to record a significant pickup in growth in Q2.</p>
<p>According to the survey, the weakening in momentum has been broad-based across the business sector over the past year, with all industries having weakened.</p>
<p>Retail also continues to show ongoing malaise, with reported business conditions at a level last seen in the GFC - while manufacturing has also shown steep declines.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/10/NAB%20Business%20Confidence%20June.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Alan Oster, NAB Groups Chief Economist said, “business confidence appears to have unwound its spike in May, which we think was driven by a short-term election bounce and increased optimism around a renewed interest rate easing cycle by the RBA."</span></p>
<p><span>“While business conditions increased slightly in the month, they remain well below average after trending lower for over a year now. The decrease in conditions has been relatively broad-based across states and industries – suggesting that there has been sector wide loss of momentum over the past year."</span></p>
<p><span>“Forward looking indicators suggest that there is unlikely to be a material improvement in conditions over the next few months with forward orders remaining very weak. This suggests the pipeline of demand is weak and is consistent with below average confidence,” Mr Oster concluded.</span></p>
<p>Sentiment also fell in <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/investing/101108-sentiment-falls-despite-interest-rate-cuts-and-tax-relief-westpac" target="_blank">Westpac's Consumer Sentiment Survey</a>.</p>
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Second RBA rate cut dampens consumer confidence: ANZ-Roy Morgan

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<p>Consumers continue to mark down their expectations for house prices albeit with a choppy profile in recent months, according to Westpac's latest Red Book.</p>
<p>A very weak March was followed by a surprising strong lift in April.</p>
<p>Overall, the Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer House Price Expectations Index is down a further 0.3% since January.</p>
<p>Westpac economists suggest that likely understates the weakening with the first few months of the year typically seeing a seasonal rise in price expectations. </p>
<p>At 95.6 the Index remains around the lowest levels since we began compiling it in 2009.</p>
<p>Earlier figures from a survey by Mortgage Choice suggest current reads are above GFC lows.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/18/Redbook%20House%20Prices%201.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Of those consumers with a view, 32% now expect prices to rise over the next year, 32% expect no change and 36% expect falls.</p>
<p>The state breakdown continues to show a more bearish mix in NSW (30%:29%:41%) and Victoria (26%:29%:45%).</p>
<p>Notably, the price weakening in Perth does not appear to have weighed as heavily on price expectations.</p>
<p>The biggest downgrade in expectations over the last three months has been among Queenslanders.</p>
<p>Prices have continued to weaken in early 2019 albeit with some hints of milder declines in the last three months, although some of this may reflect seasonality with prices typically a touch firmer early in the year.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/18/Redbook%20House%20Prices%202.JPG" alt=""></p>
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