Commonwealth Bank

Australia&rsquo;s biggest bank, CBA, has increased its 2- and 4- year fixed home loan rates by 0.05 per cent for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest. 
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It is the third time CBA has hiked its 4-year fixed rate this year, but the first time the bank has hiked its 2-year rate for owner-occupiers.

&ldquo;CBA is factoring in a rise in the cost of funding over the next couple of years, particularly now the RBA&rsquo;s term funding facility has closed.&rdquo; 
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A recent economic insights report from CBA shows around half of its new owner-occupier loans settled in June were fixed, with the two-year rate the most popular. 
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&ldquo;Despite today&rsquo;s hikes, CBA still has one rate under 2 per cent &ndash; the bank is not going to let go of that easily,&rdquo; said RateCity.com.au research director, Sally Tindall. 
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&ldquo;CBA&rsquo;s two-year rate was extremely competitive and attracting significant interest. By keeping it just under 2 per cent, the bank is trying to keep momentum going at a more sustainable price,&quot; she said. 
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Analysis of the RateCity.com.au database shows over the last two months, there have been more hikes than cuts in every fixed rate category with the exception of 1-year rates. 
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But ME Bank has cut rates across a few home loans from early August, while boosting its refinance cashback offer to $3,000.

The cuts were across its two-year fixed and variable home loan range.

The two-year fixed rate Member Package home loan was cut by 20 basis points to 1.89% p.a. (3.17% p.a. comparison rate*) - a &quot;record low&quot; for the lender.

This particular comparison rate applies to owner occupier borrowers with 80% LVR i.e. a 20% deposit, paying principal &amp; interest.&nbsp;

The same advertised rate applies to other LVRs in the product line, but different comparison rates apply.

A number of other home loans - both fixed and variable - with different LVRs were also cut by between 5 and 31 basis points.

While the majority of changes to fixed rates in the last two months have been hikes, RateCity advise the opposite is happening in the variable rate market.&nbsp; 
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RateCity.com.au home loan database analysis shows 49 lenders have cut at least one variable rate in the past two months while 10 lenders have hiked variable rates in that time.

The vast majority of variable rate cuts are reserved for new customers, not existing ones, RateCity research director, Sally Tindall, said.

&ldquo;Variable rates are at record lows, however, most of these deals are reserved for new customers, not existing ones, unless you specifically ask,&rdquo; she said. 
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&ldquo;Before you call, check what rate your bank is giving new customers for the same home loan, but also find out what other lenders have on offer.

&ldquo;If you are paying significantly more than a new customer, pick up the phone and ask your bank &lsquo;why?&rsquo;.

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&ldquo;If you have a good track record of paying down your debt, and the bank thinks you might switch to a more competitive lender, they&rsquo;re likely to play ball. 
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&ldquo;A lot of people think a handful of basis points won&rsquo;t make much of a difference, but if the discount is permanent, then the savings can potentially run into the thousands in just a few years,&rdquo; she said.

ME has also increased its cashback offer to $3,000 for externally-refinanced home loans.

The new lending amount must be minimum of $250,000.

Eligible refinancers must apply by Friday 27 August inclusive, and settle by Friday 29 October.

ME Bank CEO Adam Crane said the cuts would assist borrowers &quot;looking to maximise their borrowing in a challenging property market.&quot;

In February, ME Bank merged with Bank of Queensland with the deal expected to be finalised this month.

But ME Bank cut rates across a few home loans, while boosting its refinance cashback offer to $3,000

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Home loan mortgage rate rises continue

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The home buying spending intentions, part of the Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions (HSI) series, saw further gains across February, reaching its highest level since the data series began in 2015.

Both mortgage applications and Google searches were up in February in comparison to the month and year prior.

CBA chief economist Stephen Halmarick said the overall improvement in the HSI data is consistent with other signs that Australia’s economy continued to recover in the early months of 2021.

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"We continue to expect the home buying market to be a key source of support for the Australian economy in 2021 – driven largely by the very low level of interest rates," Mr Halmarick said.

CBA are continuing with their forecast that property prices will be up eight per cent in 2021 and six per cent in 2022, with house prices expected to be nine per cent higher this year.

Mr Halmarick said Commonwealth Bank now expect the Australian economy will grow by 4.4 per cent in 2021 following the economic growth improvement at the end of 2020 pointing to a V-shaped recovery.

One risk to this outlook is the upcoming expiry of the JobKeeper program, though Mr Halmarick said recent CBA research suggests any effect from removing the labour market support measure is likely to be temporary.

“Our view is that the negative impacts of the end of JobKeeper will be short-lived and that the strength in the labour market, the large savings pool generated throughout 2020 and, as shown by the HSI, the solid momentum in spending and home buying, will see the economy transition successfully through the end of JobKeeper,” he said.
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Both mortgage applications and Google searches were up in February in comparison to the month and year prior.

Joel Robinson

Commonwealth Bank's home buying spending intentions hit record highs in February

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GUEST OBSERVER
The RBA’s updated forecasts are consistent with policy on hold over the rest of 2017.
The Bank expects growth to lift over the next few years to an above-trend pace.
And while core inflation is forecast to be close to 2% in H2 2017 (a touch under on the Bank’s chart), the RBA sees headline inflation tracking in their 2-3% target band.
Optimism around the recent strength in employment growth is tempered by a “subdued” outlook for wages growth.
As such, we think that the Bank retains a neutral bias in today’s Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP).
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The Bank has downwardly revised their near term GDP forecasts due to the softer than expected QI which was negatively impacted by weather.
Looking at the Bank’s through the year forecasts implies that the pace of growth picks up to 2% by year end and 23⁄4% by Q2 2018.
Positive contributions to come from LNG production, consumption, infrastructure spend and a lift in non-mining investment.
The RBA notes that the stronger AUD has had a “modest dampening” effect on the growth forecasts.
In summary, the Australian economy would be deemed to be in good shape if the RBA’s growth outcomes can be achieved.
The forecasts look reasonable to us but the risks are to the downside.
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Core inflation forecasts haven’t budged, but the expected trajectory for headline inflation has inched higher due to the lift in utilities prices.
There is nothing in the inflation forecasts to suggest that policy will be tightened over the next year.
We think that at the very least the RBA would need to upgrade its core inflation forecast to even entertain the idea of a rate rise.
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We note the change in language from the RBA on the labour market that signals the Bank is clearly happy with developments.
The RBA states that leading indicators of the labour market point to, “solid employment growth” over H2 2017.
Here the emphasis is on solid and suggests that the RBA considers the recent strength in the labour market as genuine and that it will continue over the year.
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As a result, some mild downward pressure is expected to be applied to the unemployment rate.
On wages, the RBA devoted “Box C” to a discussion on the 2017/18 minimum wage decision.
The upshot is that it should contribute 0.2ppts to growth relative to its contribution in 2016/17.
We have a similar view to the RBA on the outlook for wages growth.
Namely that it has reached a bottom and should pick up gradually from here.
That said, the process will be slow because there is still plenty of slack in the labour market.
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As a result, we think that the RBA’s outlook for wages growth is more plausible than the optimistic wages forecasts underpinning the 2017/18 Federal Budget.
In summary, it looks like more of the same from a monetary policy perspective over 2017.
Rates will stay on hold until wages growth and core inflation are on a sustained upward trend.
That is some way off and in our view that means that policy is likely to be on hold until late 2018.
Gareth Aird is a senior economist at Commonwealth Bank and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/gareth-aird/14/790/905">here</a>.
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RBA on hold over rest of 2017: Gareth Aird

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The online digital home loan platform Lendi and Aussie Home Loans have announced they have entered into an agreement to merge.

It has been mooted for a month.

The financial press had advised Aussie has 200 outlets and a $70 billion loan book that makes $50 million a year profit while Lendi is a loss maker, recently advising a $37 million loss with an $8 billion book.

Aussie has around 1000 brokers, and Lendi has around 200.

They intend for the proposed merger to "create a market leader in the Australian home loan market."

Lendi shareholders will hold the majority shareholding of 55 percent in the merged business, while Aussie’s current owner, CBA, will hold a 45 percent shareholding.

It will continue to provide funding for the Aussie Select branded home loan product.

The CBA chief executive officer, Matt Comyn said the combined business will have a stronger platform to offer "enhanced digital capabilities for Aussie brokers and a superior experience for customers."

Lendi CEO and co-founder David Hyman suggested it was an "exceptional opportunity" to drive the growth and digitisation of the two companies, both of which had "led disruptive change" in the Australian home loan market. 

Aussie CEO James Symond suggested the merger was another important step in the almost 29-year evolution of Aussie as Australia’s leading retail mortgage broker.

"We are currently posting record lending volumes through our network of over 970 brokers and over 210 stores and, by underpinning Lendi’s technology across our national broker network, we will further accelerate this growth and momentum.”

Completion of the transaction is subject to ACCC approval and other customary conditions.

It is expected to occur by mid calendar year 2021.
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The Commonwealth Bank has announced the merger of its Aussie Home Loans business with online platform Lendi

Aussie Home Loans merges with Lendi

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The Commonwealth Bank has revealed an increase in borrowers behind in their mortgage repayments.
The number of home loan borrowers more than 90 days overdue on their loan was sat at 0.65 per cent, up from 0.59 per cent at the end of December. 
There were emerging "troublesome exposures" mentioned in its stockmarket update on Wednesday morning.
However CBA said the credit quality of the group's lending portfolios remained sound. 
The bank noted "there has been an uptick in home loan arrears, influenced by a small number of customers experiencing difficulties with rising essential costs and limited income growth".
CBA said "consumer arrears were seasonally higher in the quarter".
Customers more than 90 days due on their personal loans rose from 1.21 per cent at the end of December to 1.39 per cent at the end of March, while credit card arrears also rose slightly, from 0.88 per cent to 0.98 per cent.
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<div id="article-inline-ad">It also said a small number of loans had resulted in an increase "troublesome exposures", while impaired assets remained stable.</div>
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Overall, bad debts remain very low.
The Australian Financial review advised the loan impairment expense of $261 million in the quarter was 14 basis points of gross loans and acceptances, down from 16 basis points in the first half. CBA said it maintained "prudent" levels of credit provisioning with total provisions at $3.8 billion.
Westpac recently indicated at the end of 2017 its arrears rate was 1.2 per cent, down slightly from 1.3 per cent at the end of 2016. Westpac arrears were below historical peaks of 1.7-to-1.9 per cent. In New South Wales market, Westpac mortgage arrears are the lowest nationally at just 0.8 per cent, below the state's long-term average of 1.4 per cent.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Arrears jumps in CommBank loan book

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House prices could be slashed by a third, Commonwealth Bank have suggested in its worst case scenario for the national housing market.
The best case scenario, the country's biggest lender says, was for prices to drop 11 per cent.
LF Economics founder Lindsey David says a 32% fall in house prices will "kill the Australian banking system without mega bailouts."
Matt Barrie, founder and chief executive of Freelancer, believes even a 25 per cent drop will do it.
" I think that pushes most mortgages since 2017 into 100% LVR", Barrie said.
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has said the news would be welcome for some.
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"It'll be a buyers' market for a while," Ms Berejiklian said this morning.
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"There's always a positive in a negative circumstances."
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CBA's worst case scenario considers a two year recession where GDP growth could scale back nearly eight per cent over 2020 and 2021, with a minor 2.3 per cent bounce in 2022.
It would also rely on the unemployment rate hitting nine per cent in 2020, and only scaling back to 8.5 per cent in 2021.
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An 11 per cent scale back in the nation's house price index would more likely occur if Australia's GDP only falls six per cent in 2020, and recovers that amount in 2021, before slowing to a three per cent gain in 2022.
It would also see unemployment only hit 8.25 per cent, rather than nine per cent, and drop back to eight per cent in 2021 as the country's borders stop opening and jobs get back to some sort of normality.
Unemployment would be hitting 6.5 per cent in 2022 if this is the case.
CBA stated the key drivers of the fall in house prices were unemployment, underemployment and changes to income, given the severe economic impact to COVID-19. The bank have set aside $1.5 billion to cover potential losses.
ANZ was much more optimistic when it came to forecasting the potential effect on the housing market, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/113469-anz-forecast-10-peak-to-trough-declines-until-late-2021-rebound" target="_blank">predicting 10 per cent peak to trough losses nation-wide</a>.
ANZ economists Felicity Emmett and Adelaide Timbrell anticipate prices will bottom out in mid-2021 as affordability improves, but the recovery is likely to be relatively gradual given that unemployment is expected to remain above 7% until 2022.
Emmett and Timbrell suggest the deterioration in household income will be the biggest driver of weakness.
"Already, nearly a third of Australian households have reported a deterioration in their finances due to COVID-19," the economists said.
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

House prices could fall 32 per cent: CBA's worst case COVID-19 scenario

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CBA currently has deferred repayments on 135,000, or eight per cent, of its home loans.
It covers $48 billion of loans.
It was 154,00 home loan deferrals at the COVID-19 peak.
There were 250,000 deferred loans all up, as 15 per cent of its business loans are also deferred totalling $14 billion in deferrals.
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But its recent home lending has proved resilient, rising by 1.3 times the average of the system, or $18.4 billion over the year.
There was $100 billion in new home lending, with just 25 percent going to investors.
It equated to four per cent volume growth.
The average home loan was at a record $352,000, up from $317,000 a year ago.
Home loan arrears sit at low levels.
Some 40 percent of CBA borrowers are one year or more in advance in their payments.
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The portfolio LVR remained stable.
It advised 70 percent of its book originated under tighter lending standards adopted in 2016.
The book has split 68 percent with owner occupiers; 30 percent investors and 2 percent with a line of credit.
Some 16 percent are on interest only loans, down from 22 percent a year ago.
Revenue was up two per cent over the year to $23.9 billion after CBA was flooded with new deposits, with deposits now providing 74 per cent of total funding, up from 69 per cent over the past year.
"We anticipate that lower credit growth and low interest rates will continue to put pressure on our revenue, requiring a focus on performance, efficiency and capital allocation," the CBA CEO Matt Comyn said.
"Despite the challenging environment, operational performance in the business remains strong. Combined with our strong balance sheet and capital position, this enables us to continue supporting customers and the economy."
Commonwealth Bank has announced an 11.3 per cent drop in full-year cash profit to $7.3 billion as it ramped up provisions against loan losses. 
It will pay a 98¢ final dividend.
The full-year dividend of $2.98 per share, fully-franked, is down 31 per cent on 2019.
Analysts had been expecting a final dividend of 92¢ cents, the lowest final dividend since 2006.
CBA’s shares have been trading at 6.5 per cent lower so far this year. 
The other banking majors will provide investors third-quarter updates over the coming week.
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CBA boosts home loan lending as home loans hits record $352,000

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The Commonwealth Bank has increased its standard variable investor home loan interest rates by 7 basis points, to 5.56 per cent per annum.
It also increased its Viridian Line of Credit interest rates by 15 basis points, to 5.78 per cent  per annum. No changes have been made to interest rates for owner occupiers with the owner occupier standard variable rate at 5.22 per cent per annum, the lowest among the major banks.
Business rates also remain unchanged. “We have carefully considered the current environment when making this decision – in particular the higher costs associated with funding mortgages, the increased capital costs associated with providing home loans, and the need to remain below the regulatory 10 per cent investor home loan growth cap.
We believe these changes balance the needs of our borrowers and shareholders, while helping to underpin the long-term sustainability of the Australian home loan market,” said Matt Comyn, Group Executive for Retail Banking Services. The new rates are effective from 16 December 2016. 
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Variable rates start to rise at CommBank

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The December RBA minutes are consistent with the recent narrative out of the RBA which points to policy on hold, according to Commonwealth Bank's economic update.
The level of inflation and spare capacity in the economy gives the bank scope to cut rates if the economic data makes the case.
But today’s minutes suggest it would take a shift in the economic landscape for the cash rate to move lower from here.
To recap, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% at the December board meeting. And the final paragraph contained an unchanged neutral bias.
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This was reaffirmed in today’s minutes.
Namely, that: “having eased monetary policy earlier in the year, the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.”
"In our view, there is a paragraph in the December minutes that contains the thumb print of new governor Philip Lowe," the updated stated.
The key lines being that the board discussed the “effect of lower interest rates on asset prices and the decisions by households to borrow, particularly given the already high levels of household debt”.
“The Board had sought to balance the benefits of lower interest rates in supporting growth and achieving the inflation target with the potential risks to household balance sheets.”
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"Members recognised that this balance would need to be kept under review.”
These are indications that the RBA, under Governor Lowe, is placing a little more emphasis in policy settings on asset prices and financial stability than it did under former governor Stevens.
Here we recall that there have been a series of developments since RBA governor Lowe took the helm that mean the hurdle for more policy easing is a notch higher than it was under Glenn Stevens.
First, there were tweaks to the RBA’s policy framework. The inflation target was reaffirmed as 2-3% per annum.
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But “on average over the cycle” was replaced with “over time”. There was also a drafting change that, at least cosmetically, makes the link between monetary policy and financial stability a little more direct.
These two changes point to a central bank that appears more willing to tolerate inflation outside of the target band for a little longer than they may have done in the past.
On the international economy, the bank is a little more upbeat than previously, noting that developments had been “more positive” in recent months and that the Chinese economy had “remained resilient”.
The RBA is a little more hawkish on global inflation, noting that the outlook is more “balanced” than it has been for a while.
On the domestic economy, the RBA noted that, “year-ended growth was expected to decline”. Here we note that the December board meeting predates the QIII GDP ‘shocker’.
And while the RBA was expecting a soft print, the 0.5% fall in GDP would not have been in their growth profile.
As such, we expect the bank to downgrade their GDP forecasts in the February statement on monetary policy (SMP).
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Growth is expected to pick up to be “above potential” later in the forecast period as the impact of declining mining investment on the economy wanes.
"We agree and would add that on our estimates we are about 85% through the expected decline in mining investment," the update stated.
The RBA lacked conviction in its assessment on the labour market by indicating that there was still “considerable uncertainty” about its “momentum”.
Clearly the bank is struggling with the rare combination of a downward trend in both employment growth and the unemployment rate.
On that score, last week’s comprehensively strong November employment report will settle some nerves in Martin Place around the health of the labour market.
The pulse of jobs growth was easing into the November print (which predates the December board meeting) so the solid increase in jobs over the month (all full-time), coupled with a lift in participation and fall in the underutilisation rate would have been a welcome update.
Interestingly, the RBA mentioned a new hours-based measure of labour market underutilisation that had declined to a similar extent as the unemployment rate.
The Bbank stuck to the recent script on the housing market by noting that: “Conditions had strengthened overall over preceding months, although there was considerable variation across the country.”
On the AUD, the Board had very little to say which is probably related to their satisfaction with what has been happening.
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Commodity prices have been firming, but since mid-November (i.e. over the past month) the AUD has fallen 41⁄4% against the USD and 13⁄4% on a TWI basis.
The fall largely reflects USD strength which is the ideal outcome for the Australian economy at the moment.
The Outlook
With no meeting in January, the next RBA Board meeting is seven-odd weeks away.
There will be a lot of economic data out between now and then. And overlying that, financial markets will continue to adjust to the new economic paradigm under a Trump presidency.
We think that the RBA faces a tough job in returning inflation to target. But new Governor Philip Lowe looks more willing to tolerate inflation outside of the target band if it reduces the risk of financial imbalances and the further build of up debt in the household sector.
In addition to today’s minutes, governor Lowe’s comments from his CEDA address in November that: “It is unlikely to be in the public interest, given current projections for the economy, to encourage a noticeable rise in household indebtedness, even if doing so might encourage slightly faster consumption growth in the short term” are still ringing in our ears."
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"To us, Lowe’s comments are a strong hint that the governor doesn’t want to take the cash rate lower. And he reminded us today that the cash rate had been “lowered in aggregate by 31⁄4 ppts” over this easing cycle," the update stated.
The risks over the next year continue to lie with a cut and the market is pricing in a small (10%) chance that policy is eased again.
But the house view is that those risks don’t materialise and we have policy on hold at 1.5% over 2017.
Gareth Aird is senior economist with Commonwealth Bank.
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Market pricing implies 10% chance interest rates will go lower: Gareth Aird

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Commonwealth Bank’s half-year earnings have put it firmly on course for a record $10 billion profit for the full year, even though the lender recently restricted loans to refinancing for investors.
The bank’s profit rose 6 per cent to $4.9 billion in the first half, of which half came from the retail banking side, which is where the home loans are concentrated.
The bank advanced 140,000 new home loans, including 15,000 for first home buyers, it said in a media release.
On the recent move to restrict refinancing of investor loans to new customers, CBA chief executive Ian Narev told 2GB’s Ross Greenwood that the lender crossed the APRA’s 10 percent growth cap for lending to investors for the year and had to be peg it back.
“We went over the limit and we made it quite clear we went over the limit…we just had to take a couple of steps to make sure we remain within that regulatory limit,” said Narev.
Australian Prudential Regulation Authority chairman Wayne Byres had said late in 2016 that bank stability had been well served by the 10 per cent growth cap imposed on bank investor loan portfolios, with actual rates of growth around half that rate. 
On increasing interest rates for investor-only loans, Narev said rates are independent of the results, “simply because it responds to a regulatory requirement to keep our lending growth in investor loans below 10 pct a year”.
When pressed further about stopping refinancing of investor loans, he said the bank’s “No. 1 priority is that we’re there for existing customers” and that CBA is just “trying to be prudent in this environment”. He said new investor loans for refinancing wouldn’t be done through the broker channel.
The group’s statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) for the half year ended 31 December was $4,895 million, a 6 per cent increase on the prior comparative period. Cash NPAT was $4,907 million, an increase of 2 per cent on the prior comparative period. 
Its Board has announced an interim dividend of $1.99 per share, a 1 cent increase on the 2016 interim dividend. The interim dividend, which will be fully franked, will be paid on 4 April 2017 with the ex-dividend date being 22 February 2017. 
According to The Australian, CBA will be the second company in Australia to report a $10 billion profit for a year. Mining giant BHP reported $US15.9 billion in 2012.
In operating income terms, retail banking reported $3.9 billion in the first half, followed by business and private banking at $1.2 billion.
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