Commodity Prices

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/64542/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Some well known resource stocks in Australia have reported major losses, including US$6.38 billion for BHP Billiton over the past year and US$1.1 billion for Santos over the past six months.
These losses have largely been driven by lower commodity prices, which in turn is the result of a slowing Chinese economy and weak global growth rates. But the bigger question is whether this most recent downturn is heralding a long term decline in mining activities.
Commentators throughout history have predicted that minerals and energy production would eventually decline because of resource depletion and rising costs. One of the most well-known theories is Peak Oil, originally developed by King Hubbert in the 1950s. This theory explained how many oil fields have a bell-shaped production function from discovery through to exhaustion.
This was used to predict the year and level of when the industry would hit maximum supply. Since then this same concept of an inevitable ‘peak’ has been widely applied to other commodities, to describe when global production might reach maximum levels.
However these predictions of maximum production outputs continue to be surpassed. Hubbert’s original projections were that global oil production would peak in 1995 when actual annual production has continued to grow steadily since then to be about 55% higher. In fact the slump in oil prices since 2014 have largely been caused by excess supply (together with the effects of lower growth in China and other economies).
<div id="responsive-iframe-0">Understanding why resource production continues to grow even when depletion must be occurring, provides some hints as to the future of commodities. The first is that mineral commodities tend to be driven by long term cyclical forces, particularly on the supply side.</div>
Higher resource prices, as seen in the 2003-2012 resources boom, drove huge investments into new production, both in Australia and overseas. That growth in supply is now maturing because of the long lead time to get new projects developed, with virtually no new projects approved since 2012.
Oversupply causes lower prices and shuts off new projects; there is often a long hiatus until the next boom because of an expanding supply base and the buffering effects of inventories.
The second pointer is that there are a variety of structural factors that shift both supply and demand. The key factors on the supply side are new discoveries and better technologies; these increase potential supply over time.
On the demand side, increased development of renewables and more efficient energy systems can systematically lower fossil fuel demand, while countries typically have lower metals requirements once industrialisation has been achieved. It was the combination of cyclical forces, such as lower economic growth, and structural changes in both supply and demand factors that led to the post-2012 slowdown in commodity prices.
Some analysts have focused on the structural changes, arguing for example that greater generation of renewable energy and improved productivity will lower fossil fuel demands permanently. However it is unlikely that structural changes have been enough to date to outweigh increases in demand when the economic cycle moves more strongly into a growth phase.
For example the International Energy Agency in 2015 predicted that world energy demand would grow by nearly one-third between 2013 and 2040, and even though renewables will be the fastest growing sector there is still likely to be some growth in coal and oil consumption to meet the balance of needs.
The third pointer is that the major slump in commodity prices over the past three years has focused the minerals sector on cost-cutting and efficiency. This has been more intense than in previous downturns, but the end result is that production costs are much lower than in 2012.
As a result, any rebound in resource prices, as has occurred across some commodities this year, will not have to be as large for operations to be profitable. In essence the cyclical downturn has forced a structural reduction in operating expenses that will make the industry more resilient to future commodity cycles.
This broad summary papers over a number of factors that influence individual commodities; these include government regulation, exploration policies, controls on supply, market access, taxation and support policies, infrastructure access and charges, labour markets and technology drivers. While those factors help to explain movements between sectors, it is the cyclical forces of global demand and global supply that drive prices and returns for Australian companies.
Analysts should also keep in mind that the company accounting systems do not fully reflect all environmental costs; for example responsibilities for mine rehabilitation tends to be underestimated and there is no current system to internalise the spillover costs of greenhouse emissions. Regulatory and accounting systems need to be improved so that all environmental impacts and liabilities are fully recorded, particularly if a cyclical upturn in the future stimulates growth again in the sector.
John Rolfe is professor of Regional Economic Development, School of Business and Law, CQUniversity Australia and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-rolfe-1894" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Is the resources downturn structural or cyclical?

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GUEST OBSERVER
Growth was considerably weaker in the third quarter of 2016 than was expected, with real GDP falling on the quarter for the first time since Q1 2011. 
However, the fall appears to reflect the coincidence of a number of one-off factors, including a temporary disruption to coal exports and inclement weather affecting construction activity, rather than the beginning of a more significant downturn. Recent numbers for retail sales, business conditions and international trade already suggest a solid pick-up in GDP growth is likely in Q4 2016. 
In addition, there has been a substantial pick-up in coal and iron ore prices recently. Although this rise did not arrive in time to support the Q3 2016 GDP numbers, it should flow through to a significant boost in income growth in Q4 2016 and beyond. Australia’s commodity price index has risen by 20% in AUD terms since Q3 2016. Our estimates suggest that the pick-up in commodity prices should add around 2.0pp to nominal GDP over the coming year.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-09%20at%2012.39.47%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-09%20at%2012.39.47%20PM.png" alt="">
Overall, the strong rise in commodity prices and end of the mining investment decline are changing the local growth story. For the past five years, the Australian economic story has been about rebalancing growth away from being driven by mining investment at the end of the commodity prices ‘super-cycle’. Lower interest rates and the fall in the AUD over recent years have supported a housing boom and rising services exports, which have rebalanced growth. The mining sector is now stabilising and is no longer set to drag on growth and incomes. 
Given the recent downside surprise to GDP growth, we now expect growth of 2.4 percent in 2016 (previously 2.9 percent), rising to 2.8 percent in 2017 (previously 2.9 percent) and 3.2 percent in 2018 (unchanged). 
Although local inflation is currently below the RBA’s 2-3 percent target and wages growth is sluggish, we expect both to rise gradually through 2017. Supporting this, we see the rise in commodity prices as likely to lift national incomes, tax revenues, corporate profits and wages growth. Non-mining business investment is also already showing signs of rising modestly and, although the labour market has spare capacity, it is worth keeping in mind that job creation tends to lag the cycle, rather than lead it. We retain our view that the RBA is likely to keep its cash rate on hold at 1.50 percent through 2017 and have recently shifted our call for 2018, with 50bp of RBA hikes now pencilled in. 
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Policy issues 
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The Australian government has passed legislation to re-instate the Australian Building and Construction Commission, which is an indication that there has been some progress on labour market reform. This legislation was difficult to pass and was the trigger for the July 2016 ‘double dissolution’ Federal election. 
The government has also passed a number of fiscal reform measures, including the ‘backpacker tax’, with the measures set to save the government AUD21bn over the next four years. Tax revenues are also expected to get a boost from rising commodity prices. Offsetting these measures, slower-than-expected wages growth has weighed on the personal income tax take. The government’s focus on fiscal reform has become more pressing since one of the major rating agencies, Standard &amp; Poor’s, put the Australian government on ‘negative outlook’ for its triple-A sovereign rating in July 2016. 
Financial stability concerns remain an ongoing issue for the central bank, given a further recent pick-up in housing prices and a modest revival in investment activity in Australia’s housing market. The pick-up in housing market activity has occurred despite local prudential settings having been tightened over the past two years. The pick-up in investor credit growth adds to the case for the RBA to keep its cash rate unchanged over the next few quarters. 
Risks 
We view the risks to growth as evenly balanced. On the upside, the lift in commodity prices and boost to incomes could provide more support for growth than we currently expect. On the downside, slower-than-expected growth in China could weaken demand for Australian commodities or services exports. The risks to our inflation outlook are tilted to the downside. Changing patterns of employment could put more persistent downside pressure on wage growth, and thus local underlying inflation, than we have currently factored into our central case. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-09%20at%2012.41.15%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-09%20at%2012.41.15%20PM.png" alt="">
 
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 <a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC. 
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Commodity price rise to boost incomes: HSBC'S Paul Bloxham

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GUEST OBSERVER
The tailwind is here. Higher commodity prices are boosting national incomes and the numbers are large.
Export values rose by a strong 32% year-on-year in December which drove the largest trade surplus on record. This is driving a strong rise in mining profits and tax revenues. The debate is about whether the lift in mining profits and taxes will boost wages growth, household spending and domestic inflation, as it has done in the past.
Will households feel the tailwind too? Some observers argue that without another mining investment boom or the government delivering personal tax cuts, both of which, we agree, seem unlikely, a rise in domestic wages and inflation will not happen. In our view, scale is important here. Although we agree that the income effect on households is likely to be less potent than in the past, some of the effect should still get through. Plus, this boost is in addition to the services sector growth story which is still humming along. We think this will keep the RBA from cutting further and expect that these same forces could mean rate hikes in 2018.
As we have been pointing out for some time now, we see the recent lift in commodity prices as having changed the economic story for Australia. For the past five years, Australia has sought to pull off a 'great rebalancing act' and this year with think that the rebalancing act is almost done. This is largely because the significant headwind that Australia has faced over the past five years, as a result of falling commodity prices and mining investment, is now becoming a noticeable tailwind. The resources sector is set to become a contributor, rather than a drag, on growth.
The past couple of weeks have revealed more evidence that the boost to incomes from higher commodity prices has already arrived. Export values rose by a strong 32% year-on-year in December, supported by a 127% rise in the value of coal exports. This drove a significant swing in the trade balance, from a deficit in October to the largest trade surplus in the history of the available numbers (since 1971) in December. Although we do not yet have the Q4 GDP figures, as chart 1 below shows, there is a strong positive correlation between commodity prices and Australia's nominal GDP growth. As a result, the RBA has been confident enough to recently state that higher commodity prices 'are providing a boost to Australia's national income'.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/09/blo%20one.gif" alt="">
As the income has already arrived, the question is not whether there will be a pick-up in incomes, but whether it will flow through to the household sector, to wages and domestic inflation, as it has done in the past? On this, some observers argue that without another mining investment boom or boost to household incomes from personal tax cuts, both of which seem unlikely, a rise in domestic wages and inflation is unlikely.
We agree with some of these arguments, but think it is mostly a question of scale.
First, we agree that the pick-up in commodity prices is unlikely to stoke a substantial upswing in mining investment anytime soon. But we are not as convinced that this means you will not see any flow through to households. Keep in mind that mining investment is already set to stop falling from around mid-2017, as the resources sector shifts from new construction to maintenance and repair, which is now a larger spend than it has been in the past. Mining employment has also already started to stabilise and the timely mining sector job vacancy indicators are lifting. Spending on mineral exploration has also levelled out recently, after years of decline. Given the considerable recent boost to mining profits it seems unlikely, in our view, that mining sector wages growth will continue to fall as much it has in recent years.
Second, we agree that the federal government is unlikely to deliver income tax cuts, as it did between 2003 and 2007 when the commodity price super-cycle was first in its upswing. However, the corporate tax take will be boosted, which should take some pressure off the Federal budget. Some of this is likely to show up in the public sector wage bill. State royalties will also be boosted in Western Australia and Queensland and we expect some of this to trickle into state spending and public sector wages.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/09/blo%20two.gif" alt="">
Overall, our strongest argument is that the significant scale of the ramp up in commodity prices, exports and nominal incomes means that at least some of the pick-up is likely to get through to the household sector, wages growth and domestic inflation. Just a levelling out of mining sector activity and incomes, after five years of decline should be expected to help see wages and domestic inflation stabilise. What we have seen is much more than this, with national income significantly boosted (again, see chart 1). Add to this that the non-mining economy has already been growing solidly, supported by low interest rates, the lower AUD and rising demand for services from Asia's growing middle classes.
Finally, it is worth keeping in mind that recent history supports the view that a lift in commodity prices should drive a pick-up in wages growth and inflation. As chart 2 shows, there is strong positive historical correlation between the terms of trade (think commodity prices) and unit labour costs (think wages). Given the scale of the ramp up in the terms of trade it would be surprising if unit labour costs did not lift at all. In turn, rising unit labour costs should be enough to support a modest lift in domestic inflation. In our view, the RBA only needs to be convinced that underlying inflation is past its trough to keep them from cutting. With this, we expect the RBA to be on hold through 2017 and to lift its cash rate in 2018.
Paul Bloxham is chief economist, Australia, New Zealand of HSBC.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Will households feel the tailwind of rising commodity prices?: Paul Bloxham

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Conditions have generally improved over the past six months for businesses in the resource-related sector, according to RBA’s Financial Stability Review 2017.
The rise in commodity prices since the beginning of 2016, particularly for iron ore, and the ongoing efforts of these businesses to cut costs and reduce debt, have led to a substantial increase in the aggregate earnings of listed resource-related corporations (Graph 2.12).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.12.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.12.jpg" alt="">
Many listed resource-related corporations have used some of their increased profits to pay down debts, resulting in a decline in the sector’s gearing and debt servicing ratios.
In line with these positive developments, resource-related corporations’ distance-to-default measures have increased over the past year (Graph 2.13).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.13.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.13.jpg" alt="">
Nevertheless, earnings have continued to weaken for mining services corporations as resource producers have focused on cost reduction.
As noted in previous Reviews, banks’ direct exposures to the mining sector have declined in recent years and now constitute only a little over 1 per cent of their total lending, though this figure excludes banks’ exposures to non-resource-related businesses operating in mining regions (Graph 2.14).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.14.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.14.jpg" alt="">
Conditions remain challenging for these businesses, given mining firms’ continued focus on cost containment, and some indicators of financial distress have picked up.
For instance, unincorporated business failure rates are elevated in Queensland and Western Australia (Graph 2.15).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.15.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.15.jpg" alt="">
If higher commodity prices were to fall or not translate into improved economic conditions in mining-exposed regions, business failure rates may pick up further.
Outside the mining-exposed states, businesses’ finances generally appear sound and indicators of stress are low.
Survey measures of business conditions are well above their historical averages; listed corporations’ distance-to- default measures have continued their trend improvement and earnings have been in line with previous years; failure rates are low; gearing remains around its historical average; and many businesses continue to benefit from the depreciation of the Australian dollar since 2013 (Graph 2.16).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.16.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.16.jpg" alt="">
The low interest rate environment has also made it easier for companies to meet their debt obligations by reducing debt-servicing costs (Graph 2.17).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.17.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.17.jpg" alt="">
Find the RBA's latest Financial Stability Review 2017 <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Conditions have improved mining businesses: RBA

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Australian dollar has held within a narrow range of USD0.704 to USD0.716 over the month.
Key commodity prices, particularly iron ore, have been stable over the month with spot at around US$90/t. General expectations have been for this price to adjust downwards. For example the government’s forecast for the iron ore price (fob) by March 2020 is US$55/t (Westpac expects US$74/t spot).
Supporting the iron ore price has been ongoing reports from Vale of likely decommissioning of supply following the collapse of the tailings dam in Brumadinho – general expectation is that Vale will decommission around 40t of production lowering overall annual production from 400Mt to 360Mt.
However markets are expecting even larger production cuts to eventuate. Another major producer, Rio Tinto, has also recently been impacted by a supply shock.
On the demand side, confidence is rising in response to China’s commitment to stabilising growth through lifting credit; easing restrictions on the shadow banking sector; supporting bond issues by local governments to finance new infrastructure investment; tax cuts; and some support to housing in selective regions.
This stability at high levels for key commodity prices is providing solid support to the Australian dollar – indeed the fair value of the AUD as measured by commodity prices, is currently holding well in excess of current spot.
On the other hand, interest rate differentials continue to weigh on the AUD. When on February 21, Westpac moved to forecast the RBA would cut the cash rate by 25bps in August and November this year, markets were not anticipating a cut until April next year.
That pricing has now moved forward to August/September with 75% of a second cut priced by mid next year. (pricing COB Wednesday).
However in a Q&amp;A follow-up to a speech on Wednesday to the American Chamber of Commerce in Australia, Deputy Governor Debelle is reported to have noted “Our expectation is that we will see decent growth in the economy…so we won’t have to get to that point [of cutting rates]”.
A test of that assertion will be when the RBA releases its revised growth; inflation and employment forecasts in the May Statement on Monetary Policy on 10 May. Currently, the RBA is forecasting GDP growth of 3% in 2019 and 2.75% in 2020. The lower growth rate in 2020 is largely explained by a reduced contribution from resource exports – particularly LNG.
Those forecasts were released for the February Statement on Monetary Policy when the RBA was forecasting growth of 2.75% for 2018. Subsequently, growth printed at 2.3% for 2018.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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