Commercial Sales

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AMP Capital has bought back the corner building it developed in 1931 to house its Melbourne operations.
The <a href="https://www.realcommercial.com.au/property-offices-vic-melbourne-501595553" target="_blank">425 Collins Street</a> building was acquired for $39 million from the Indonesian-based Halim family.
The sale reflects a passing yield of 5.07% and a building rate of $7,250 per square metre. 
Negotiations for the 10-level office and retail building were handled by CBRE’s Kiran Pillai, Mark Wizel and Josh Rutman.
The property has been acquired by AMP’s Wholesale Australian Property Fund, which recently exchanged on the Stud Park Shopping centre in Rowville for $154 million.
The 425 Collins Street campaign had generated interest from Chinese and Singaporean hoteliers looking at a future conversion of the asset.
“Over $3 billion worth of office, retail and residential development is either planned or underway in Melbourne’s mid-town and Cbus’s proposed $1 billion redevelopment of 447 Collins Street is directly opposite", said Josh Rutman.
Designed by Bates, Smart and McCutcheon, the heritage-listed 425 Collins Street has a lettable area of 5,350 square metre.
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AMP Capital buys back heritage-listed Collins Street address

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GUEST OBSERVER
Despite strong price increases for commercial property in this cycle, Australian assets are still provoking significant investor interest — especially prime real estate generating stable income streams for the medium to long-term. 
Yields for commercial property remain attractive compared with investments in Australian residential real estate, offshore commercial property and other asset classes. 
With investor interest predicted to remain strong through the balance of 2015, prices are set to rise even higher. As a result, yields are on track to hit and surpass previous peaks, riding a fresh wave of purchases, particularly by international investors. 
Commercial property transactions are forecast to jump to around $10 billion in the second half of 2015, rounding out the calendar year with a total of close to $20 billion.
<a href="/images/2015/09/24/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-24%20at%2010.02.53%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/09/24/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-24%20at%2010.02.53%20AM.png" alt=""> 
While this is lower than the $30 billion turnover in 2014, it is still well above long-term average annual turnover, and indicates continued growth across all sectors. 
That growth looks set to be supported by a continuation of low interest rates and affordable debt. 
Given these conditions, the volume and number of transactions is likely to span a wide range of prices, asset quality, sectors and markets, opening up new opportunities for investment at many levels of the property industry. 
At this late stage of the current cycle, it would be advisable for investors to adopt a medium-term view. However, it is not too late to invest in commercial property in the short term and see prices rise. 
Another strategy that may be used at this point in the cycle is to redevelop or re-position a property with unrealised potential — although the outcome will depend on the attractiveness of the location and occupational demand.
<a href="/images/2015/09/24/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-24%20at%209.26.02%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/09/24/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-24%20at%209.26.02%20AM.png" alt="">
 Kevin Stanley is head of property strategy and research, Corporate Financial Services, <a href="https://www.commbank.com.au" target="_blank">Commonwealth Bank</a>.
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Prime real estate generating stable income: CBA's Kevin Stanley

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GUEST OBSERVER
2016 will be the year the residential property cycle starts to ease, with growth in both pricing and development set to trend lower. 
As the residential property cycle recedes, the focus will shift to commercial property. Although investment activity is already running at a high level, interest in commercial property is set to intensify further in the year ahead. 
With pricing likely to be pushed one notch higher to reach record levels, emphasis will turn to increasing returns through improvements in rental levels or a property’s net operating income. Each commercial property sector and market offers very different growth potential.
<a href="/images/2016/02/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-18%20at%204.23.40%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-18%20at%204.23.40%20PM.png" alt="">
Residential development set to ease 
Recent years have seen an unprecedented rise in residential development, driven by high rise and high density apartments. The extraordinary growth across the industry reflects a surge in investor activity and a significant shift to apartment living in all of Australia’s major cities. 
However, apartment development is likely to slow this year ― following a trend that emerged in the middle of 2015, when approvals started to drop. A decline in approvalsasshown in Chart 1, is typically a signal the commencement of new construction activity will ease within six to 12 months. 
With fewer approvals, commencements have indeed tapered, although they’ve plateaued at a high level. This is likely to see buoyant construction activity continue into 2017.
During the next phase of this unwinding process, as projects are completed, fewer will commence to take their place. The overall effect will be an eventual reduction in development activity which is likely to then continue at a more sustainable level.
Ultimately, this means some of the developments approved over the last few years will not proceed in this cycle. Owners may choose to sell those sites, providing an opportunity for others to develop uses more aligned to the changing demand-side conditions of 2016.
Brisbane and Melbourne to lead site sales
The markets which have pushed hardest in apartment approval and development over the last few years are most likely to witness site sales in 2016. Brisbane and Melbourne stand out as the cities where developers are most likely to sell sites, as markets with sufficient demand for alternative uses in both the short and long term.
Although the Australian economy is forecast to grow below trend in 2016, underlying demand conditions in some sectors are sufficient to support alternative inner-city uses provided for in new development outlined in Chart 2.
Tourism-related activity is growing on the back of the lower value of the Australian dollar and high growth in tourist arrivals from Asia, particularly China. This is leading to demand for more tourist accommodation to cater for various consumer markets.
Similarly, demand for education is enjoying steady growth, particularly for higher education from international students. Purpose-built student accommodation is considered a pre-cursor to provide for this demand. 
The easing back of the apartment development sector could be the opportunity student accommodation providers need ― enabling them to secure their desired sites in strong locations at more reasonable prices. 
Other uses may underpin development or refurbishment of existing buildings on sites previously earmarked for residential. These include boutique retail, office, medical, child care, service industrial, car parking or mixed use.
Local or State Governments may also see an opportunity in 2016 to buy sites to provide for public uses, such as schools, medical or transport-related, to better serve the large and fast-growing high density residential communities of these inner-city locations.
<a href="/images/2016/02/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-18%20at%204.24.59%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-18%20at%204.24.59%20PM.png" alt="">
Alternatively, existing developer-owners in these areas may look to purchase sites to consolidate properties and plan for projects in the next residential development cycle
Turning to investment
Beyond the likely shake-out in the residential development sector, interest in commercial property as an investment is expected to continue at a high level in 2016.
As uncertainty grows in global financial markets, more investors are driven to purchase quality commercial property. The start of 2016 has already been marked by volatility in markets around the world, including Australia.
With increased investment activity over the last few years, pricing has been pushed to an all-time high, across all price points. However, although prices are high, interest rates remain low making it attractive to buy quality real estate at current prices.
However, its also important at this point of the cycle to take into consideration factors which create a high quality commercial property asset, in both the short and long-term. These include:
•Strength of location for the use(s);
•Prospect of re-letting in the case of a vacancy;
•Strength of the tenant as a leasing covenant;
•Length and terms of the lease;
•Level of the rent relative to the prevailing market;
•Prospects for rent or other property income increases;
•Physical condition of the property and the need for any capital expenditure;
•Redevelopment potential;
•Land use zoning; and
•Any building operating costs which cannot be passed onto the tenant
<a href="/images/2016/02/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-18%20at%204.26.58%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-18%20at%204.26.58%20PM.png" alt="">
Leasing demand holds strong
Purchasing commercial investment property at a high price places greater emphasis on the ability to increase income from the property and improve future returns.
The prospect for property income growth is driven by the strength of both leasing demand for a property and its location, as well as the number of available suitable properties competing for tenant.
In 2016, the strength of leasing demand for commercial property is likely to be highest in Sydney and Melbourne. In these two cities, growth in population, employment and the economy generally is leading the country and providing the best short-term conditions to reduce market vacancy and increase rents or other property income. 
New opportunities in the mining capitals
A significant trend in 2016 will be investors turning back to consider commercial property in Perth and Brisbane. Although these two markets have been adversely impacted by the restructure of their economies as the mining sector winds back, it seems the downturn phase of this restructure is largely over.
Looking ahead, recovery is the next phase for the Western Australian and Queensland economies and their commercial property markets. This may take some years, but it looks like the worst is over –and both Perth and Brisbane are likely to enjoy an increase in investment interest and activity over the next few years.
<a href="/images/2016/02/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-18%20at%204.28.10%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-18%20at%204.28.10%20PM.png" alt="">
Expansion into growing markets 
Higher investment yields can be found in Adelaide and Canberra commercial property and this started to stimulate investment activity in both markets in 2015. We expect this activity to increase in 2016 as relatively higher yields will continue to be found in these markets, compared to those in larger cities.
This is also in the context of downward pressure on yields being maintained across Australian commercial property, particularly for quality assets.
There will also be opportunities to invest in commercial property in regional Australia in 2016. However the outlook in these locations varies considerably and is tied to local economic and property drivers as well as being very sensitive to tenant competition.
Those factors which contribute to a quality asset, as outlined on page 2, need to be very carefully considered and applied in smaller markets, as the level of underlying tenant demand is lower and the economies of these cities continue to be heavily impacted by industry restructure.
What does it mean for investors? 
While 2016 is expected to be a volatile year and one underpinned by an acceleration of change to property drivers, there is still plenty of opportunity to engage with the market.
The easing in high density apartment development is likely to see an increase in the sale of sites once earmarked for residential projects. These sites may provide the opportunity to offer uses to service the market created by a fast increasing population in these new high density suburbs. Ideally, shorter-term uses in existing buildings may provide the option for more intensive development in the future, when the residential development cycle strengthens once again.
In the meantime, the popularity of commercial property as an investment is set to increase further in 2016, amidst volatility of global and local financial markets. 
The challenge will be buying the right property at the right price and working to improve income returns into the short to medium-term. While the larger cities offer greater short-term possibilities in this regard, buyers need to be selective elsewhere, as the timing around improvement in the fundamentals is less clear.
 
Kevin Stanley is head of property strategy and research, Corporate Financial Services, <a href="https://www.commbank.com.au/" target="_blank">Commonwealth Bank</a>.
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2016 the year the residential property cycle starts to ease: Kevin Stanley

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GUEST OBSERVER
Commercial property sales hit a near record of approximately $28.4 billion in 2015 with 40 percent coming from offshore investors.
Sydney and Melbourne are among the top 10 destinations for international capital and with [gross or face] yields 3 percent higher than other gateway cities. These trends are so far continuing in 2016.
Given the long term nature of property it is important to look beyond the short term, so at Cromwell, we are focused on understanding how the market will look in five years and what trends will emerge across each of the sectors.
Our analysis shows that office markets are the most popular with international investors but other sectors such as hotels, retail, student accommodation and aged care are also increasingly sought after.
In all market sectors however, prices have generally run ahead of leasing fundamentals. The continued weakness of the economy means relatively subdued tenant demand for property in the short term albeit this demand should gradually improve as the economy begins to benefit from the pick-up in non-mining investment in a few years’ time.
Stronger growth in demand will then, to the extent that it leads to a tightening in leasing markets, underpin rises in rents and a further firming of prices. The timing and extent to which this happens will vary by market and geography.
A 5 year view sector by sector
Retail
Retail will show solid rather than spectacular income growth with differences between outcomes dependent on population, catchment growth and competition within each catchment.
Retailers still face significant challenges from internet shopping, a lower AUD and from aggressive competition. Even so, consumers have maintained expenditure growth and we believe that we are now largely through the weak period when increased vacancies in retail centres led to increased incentives and weak rental growth. 
Those vacancies are now drying up as demand for retail space improves.
Industrial
The industrial sector is basking in the glow of investor appetite after a long stint in the wilderness. Industrial demand is strengthening across the eastern seaboard capitals, underpinned by supply chain outsourcing and e-commerce.
Sydney is leading the pack, with the strongest demand in 15 years. The current growth drivers will remain in place, boosted as non-mining investment recovers but the rents will stay flat even though demand will be improving.
The market is still diminished by an ample supply of sites for development. There is plenty of zoned but not yet serviced land and aggressive development competition will keep a lid on growth in rents and prices.
The main issue is the impact of low interest rates on yields and hence rents. The firming of yields has improved development feasibilities, allowing developers to offer incentives which have spread to the re-leasing of existing properties. As a result, effective rents have fallen. Should interest rates rise, the development proposition would tighten and put upward pressure on effective rents. However that is still a way off.
Hotels
Hotels in capital cities catering to the business market were in extremely tight supply following the collapse in building post-GFC, particularly in cities servicing mining. That has now led to a building boom which when completed over the next few years would, if business was the only demand driver, oversupply those markets, city by city. However that will be offset in some cities by strong growth in tourism, both overseas and domestic. 
Hotels in tourist regions, where there has been very little building, will do extremely well as increased demand leads to tightening occupancy and rising room rates. We expect a boom in refurbishment and building of new hotels in tourist areas over the next 10 years. That will broaden to growth in the associated regional economies. 
Residential 
We are nearing the peak of the residential boom, but with marked differences between cities. Building is at record levels. Investor demand has driven the market, to some extent boosted by Chinese demand for bolthole properties, with owner occupiers relatively slow to follow.
Accordingly, the market has been driven by apartments with strong building in the inner-city.  Prices have risen strongly leading to concerns about affordability. This has turned into a classic cycle. The outcome will ultimately be driven by demand and supply in each market.
Office markets
Office markets fundamentals have come through an extremely difficult period dominated by weak tenant demand across the board as employment growth, and in particular business services employment (the primary driver of office demand), evaporated. 
Australia-wide, demand is now slowly recovering from that period of negative net absorption, albeit still affected in some cities by falling mining investment. There are marked differences between cities.
Regardless of these fundamentals, the Australian office market is experiencing cyclical high demand from investors, with record-low yields being accepted for CBD office assets. This is the preferred property sector for foreign capital, and will likely continue as the yield of Australian commercial assets aligns more closely with the global norm.
Summary
Overall, we believe the Australian economy will stay soft for the next two to three years as it works through the end of the mining investment boom. There will be a slow transition to more balanced growth, driven by industries benefiting from a lower AUD.
With Australian governments focusing on deficits and cost constraint, government investment is still falling overall. NSW is leading the way on using the cyclically strong investor demand to crystallise cash from asset sales to unlock future infrastructure investment. The next round of infrastructure investment will, however, take time to have an impact.
Inflation remains below target and until growth strengthens the RBA has a bias for rate cuts. The US, on the other hand, has begun raising rates and the reduced gap between the two monetary policies will likely see the AUD fall further.
There will be no recession in Australia but there will be a transitionary period. We expect it will be two to three years before non-mining business investment builds sufficient momentum and growth strengthens.
In the mean time, property fundamentals are not supporting the prices being paid for assets, and from our experience, a balancing of these two variables is inevitable.
Damian Horton is head of property, Cromwell Property Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.cromwell.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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The outlook for Australia’s property market: Damian Horton

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GUEST OBSERVER
Last year saw another year of strong performance in property investment markets across Australia, with Savills recording approximately $27 billion worth of commercial property transactions in the 12 months to December 2016.
Although this is down on the previous year ($33.74 billion), it’s much the same as the five year average ($25.6 billion). The reason behind the numbers is the lack of portfolios and a diminishing supply of prime properties continuing to weigh on investment volumes.
When comparing global yields in the World Office Yield Spectrum, of the gateway cities, Sydney led the pack offering by far the most attractive yields at 5.37 percent, with LA West and San Francisco the only others offering above 4.50 percent.
A look at regional performances
Australian interest rates fell to historic lows due to the slowdown in resource demand from China, a reversal of commodity prices and the end of the mining investment boom (coupled with the GFC). A subsequent pickup in occupier and investment demand in Melbourne and Sydney followed whilst there was a substantial reversal in fortunes in Brisbane and Perth. 
Whilst Brisbane has stabilised, Perth continues to be challenged (more office supply is in the pipeline), Melbourne is meeting both occupier and investment demand with a supply response whilst Sydney remains challenged on the supply front. An added difficulty in both Melbourne and Sydney is the continual withdrawal of office space and development sites (both in CBD and non-CBD office markets) for conversion to residential or compulsory acquisition for public works.
A look at the future
Commercial property investment yields continued to firm across the board (by an average 20 basis points) – a theme we have been seeing for several years now. Whilst the “bond yield” story has run its course, in some markets, fundamentals are improving rapidly. We believe this improvement will lead to further tightening in yields as investment capital starts to price in expectations of future NOI growth.
Generally, office markets look set for another year of strong investment driven by office property’s most preferred investment status, along with economic and political factors which are pushing investors towards the safety of bricks and mortar.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/28/blog-research-worldofficeyields-2017-auschart.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/28/blog-research-worldofficeyields-2017-auschart.jpg" alt="">
With some level of economic and political uncertainty remaining in most markets, it is fair to say that office risk premiums will continue to offer very good value and hence drive demand and, in some instances, even firmer office investment yields.
Much of what happens in 2017 and beyond will depend on the course the US Federal Reserve takes with regards to interest rates and the new President’s policy settings. Those factors, along with Brexit negotiations and elections in key European countries, will largely determine how currencies behave, how trade flows and how capital moves around the world.
Tony Crabb is Savills Australia’s national head of research and can be contacted <a href="https://www.savills.com.au/blog/author/109174/Tony" target="_blank">here</a>. 
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Australian investment property: a look back and a look to the future

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Buyers with an interest in Victorian hotel assets and developers are expected to battle over the Bridie O’Reilly’s pub at 29 Sydney Road in Brunswick.
Colliers International’s Guy Wells and Pat Connolly, in conjunction with Jonathon McCormack and Alex Ham of Gross Waddell, have been appointed to sell the popular pub. 
The hotel comprises a ground floor lounge area, large dining room / nightclub area and outdoor courtyard. 
Situated at the corner of <a href="https://www.realcommercial.com.au/property-retail-vic-brunswick-501722189" target="_blank">Brunswick and Sydney Road</a> with additional frontage to Black Street, Mr Wells said the property represented an opportunity for investors and developers alike.
“The 1,120sqm (approx.) site provides a development opportunity being a gateway site in Brunswick,” Mr Wells said. 
The site has been earmarked by the Moreland City Council as having the potential for a five storey development within the Brunswick Structure Plan. 
The property is offered with the benefit of lease returning approximately $275,000 per annum (excluding GST) with one year remaining on the current lease term, and a further five year lease term.” 
Bridie O’ Reilly’s was as extensively refurbished in 1997 and now operates as an Irish themed pub and entertainment venue.
This property will be sold by public auction on Wednesday October 28 at 12 noon on-site.
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Thirsty investors, developers circle Bridie O’Reilly’s in Brunswick

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An investment property leased to fast-food giant McDonald’s at Norlane in North Geelong fetched $3.05 million at Burgess Rawson's portfolio auction.
Twelve bidders went head to head for the property at the $35 million auction, pushing the yield down to 3.7 percent.
Reflecting strong investor appetite for blue-chip assets on long leases, 400 Melbourne Road was expected to go for more than $2,000,000.
“The low, affordable rental of $117,434 per annum reflects the property being subject to a ground lease with McDonald’s owning the building and all other above ground improvements” said Raoul Holderhead, managing director of Burgess Rawson ahead of the auction.
“With McDonald’s having re-built the building in 2003 and in recent years adding a McCafe, it is safe to say McDonald’s plan is to stay.” 
The lease is for 5 years plus 20 years of options through to 2038 with rental reviews annually to CPI and to market, the next due in 2018 upon the exercise of option.
<a href="https://www.burgessrawson.com.au/3P1137#.ViSSoLSqqko" target="_blank">The 3,277 square metre </a>site with 48 onsite car spaces is almost double that of a normal fast-food outlet.
"The busy and proven location is evident by some 37,000 cars passing the property each day," he said.
The site has been a McDonalds since 1980.
Greater Geelong is a growing regional city of 220,000 plus, predicted to double by 2050, according to the G21 Regional Growth Plan.
Beginning in 1975, Burgess Rawson established a nationwide network of offices and is Australia's largest locally owned and operated commercial property agency, marketing more than 10,000 properties and generating sales in excess of $25 billion over the past 40 years. fro more information, <a href="https://www.burgessrawson.com.au/portfolio-auctions" target="_blank">click here</a>.
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North Geelong McDonald's reaps $3 million at auction

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JLL's Retail Investments team, led by National Director Jacob Swan, have brokered a deal with a combined sale price exceeding $10 million for The Milton's retail and commercial portfolio in Brisbane's inner west.
The Milton was developed as a transport-oriented development (TOD) and incorporated within the Milton train station, approximately 2 km west of the Brisbane CBD.
The portfolio included an office component of two vacant podium suites totalling 1,237 sqm, along with a retail component of four separate retail tenancies leased to local and international food and beverage operators including Max Brenner, La Stazione and Ribs &amp; Rumps.
The retail tenancies were on long-term leases, all between seven and 10 years.
Five separate transactions were completed by the team.
The office lots were sold to separate owner-occupiers.
Sam Byrne who helped broker the deal said, "One owner-occupier relocated from Ashgrove, the other relocated from St Lucia; one is in education, the other in software development."
"The retail lots sold to a mix of private investors; one based in Cairns, the other in Brisbane," he added.
Campbell Bowers another colleague of Jacob Swan, said "the price point (sub $5million), long term leases and highly recognisable tenant profile of the retail investments was a highly sought-after proposition in the current market and therefore generated interest from an abundance of self-managed super funds and high-net-worth individuals."
"New residential apartment development is now driving population growth in Milton, typically a commercial area," Mr Bowers concluded.
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$10 million plus for The Milton's retail and commercial portfolio

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Childcare magnate Martyn Downs has purchased Bowral's recently refurbished Royal Hotel.
It is where the Southern Highlands rich and famous are served their local sauvignon blanc by the new licensee Peter Dean and wife Kate, whose family are the longtime publicans at the Lord Dudley in Woollahra.
The departing Royal landlords, the Feli family had wanted $5 million plus for the past two or so years.
It is not Downs' first pub, but having a 70 acre black Angus cattle farm at Bundanoon, this one will be handier than his previous Moree venture.
Downs was attracted to the main street acquisition given the inclusion of shops, restaurant and accommodation in the popular tourism destination. 
"It is the first iconic building you see when you arrive in town," Richardson &amp; Wrench selling agent Mick Maloney noted.
Geoff Harvey, the fondly remembered musician from Channel 9's Midday show, is among the regulars at the pub, and also teaches music lessons as one of the seven shop tenants.
Downs' wife Helena, their five daughters - and one son - are always keen for a shop given the likes of Seed, Witchery and Rodd &amp; Gunn emerging on the main strip in the town where Harris Farms grocery has now expanded for the fourth time.
The Downs couple also have the eight bedroom holiday rental property, La Belle Vie at Bundanoon.
Downs has been an operator and developer of childcare centres since 1992, seizing the opportunity of the past 18 months to sell some of his leasehold businesses into the listed G8 group while keeping the freehold.
This article first appeared in The Saturday Daily Telegraph.
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