Commercial Market

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GUEST OBSERVER
Mixed-use developments are back in favour and a growing trend, with many developers opting to incorporate several property uses into new projects.
Many factors are driving this trend including uncertainty in the residential market, growth in the hotel sector, the continuing scarcity of prime sites and the creation of activated lifestyle precincts.
Today’s mixed-use development model is emerging as a modern fusion of commercial, retail, residential and even hotel uses to maximise planning criteria. 
Rather than relying on one “star performer” property type, such as residential over the last five years, risk is now being reduced with developments incorporating several uses. 
In addition to risk being minimised by using the mixed-use development model, another core benefit for developers is that mixed-use projects are a highly efficient way to unlock the best value out of land and potentially increase return on investment. 
I liken it to a return to the good old-fashioned mixed business retail model we all grew up with. A bit of this and a bit of that for sale, and not all the eggs in “one basket” so to speak. 
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Rather than asset classes having to independently compete against each other in silos to generate the highest return, a mixed-use project enables different property types to work together and collaboratively deliver maximum value. 
Interestingly, hotels are now being proposed on the lower levels of new high rise residential towers where solar and ventilation criteria can't be met for residential uses. It’s an organic move, a bit like complimentary planting to create a sustainable garden, but rather complimentary planning where property uses complement each other to safeguard their individual on-going survival. 
In this case the hotel can be constructed on the lower levels not suited for residential development and create an opportunity for on-going cashflow or immediate sale, yet the upper levels with views can be developed as apartments and derive higher profit margins. 
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The on-going trend toward the creation of lifestyle precincts is also another factor influencing the surge in mixed-use developments. This is particularly evident in CBD and fringe environments with the focus in activating beyond the traditional “9 to 5” hours of an office building. 
Mixed-use developments have the added benefit of creating active and connected communities where people can work, rest, sleep and play. This supports the property sector’s fascination with sustainability and also ensures further opportunities for developers to maximise returns on investment are not missed. 
The benefits of mixed-use developments are far-reaching and transpire beyond developer profits to improve communities and ensure efficient use of our space. We certainly have not seen the end of mixed-use projects and will see more interesting combinations of property uses in new developments over the next few years as developers become more experimental in their planning. 
Drenka Andjelic is managing director of Construction Assignments and can be contacted <a href="https://www.constructionassignments.com" target="_blank">here</a>.
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The secret is in the mix: Mixed-use developments cut risk, deliver value 

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SPONSORED POST
Global office yields continue to firm as investors seek safe havens for their funds amidst ongoing economic and political uncertainties, and with those factors likely to prevail in the short to medium term, the office investment markets, particularly in gateway cities, look certain to continue to prosper, according to global investment advisor Savills.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/07/Sydney%20Leads%20Global%20Yields%20-%20Graph%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/07/Sydney%20Leads%20Global%20Yields%20-%20Graph%201.jpg" alt=""> Savills and Australia’s Deakin University’s latest <a href="https://www.savills.com.au/publications-pdf/savills-world-office-yield-spectrum-1h-2017.pdf" target="_blank">World Office Yield Spectrum</a> report found yields across 11 gateway cities had firmed by an average 95 basis points since December 2014 with San Francisco witnessing a dramatic 32 percent fall from nearly 7 percent to 4.64 percent, while Shanghai and LA West barely bothered the analysts with falls of just 0.29 and 0.31 percent respectively. Of the gateway cities, Sydney led the pack offering by far the most attractive yields at 5.37 percent, with LA West and San Francisco the only others offering above 4.50 percent. The data from all 54 cities across, Asia, Europe, the US and Australia, put Hanoi on top with a prime yield of 8.75 percent followed by Ho Chi Minh City at 8.5 percent. Taipei brought up the rear with the tightest yield of just under 2 percent while Hong Kong was at 2.5 percent. Report editor, Savills National Head of Research in Australia, Tony Crabb, said generally office markets looked set for another year of strong investment driven by office property’s most preferred investment status along with economic and political factors which had pushed investors towards the safety of bricks and mortar. “This is an interesting time in the investment cycle where markets have responded to the inflation/growth trade by pushing bond yields and growth stocks, whilst also recognising office markets should perform well as demand grows,” Mr Crabb said.  He said with some level of economic and political uncertainty remaining in most markets, it was fair to say that office risk premiums would continue to offer very good value and hence drive demand and, in some instances, even firmer office investment yields. “Much of what happens in 2017 and beyond will depend on the course the US Federal Reserve takes with regards to interest rates and the new President’s policy settings. “Those factors, along with Brexit negotiations and elections in key European countries, will largely determine how currencies behave, how trade flows and how capital moves around the world,” Mr Crabb said. He said what, if anything, would limit office property investment was the shortage of stock in most gateway markets which had experienced, in some instances, record investment levels in recent years. “That shortage of stock is being exacerbated by the strength of leasing markets, especially in gateway cities, which is driving tighter vacancy and rental growth, and landlords are happily holding on for the ride,” Mr Crabb said.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/07/Sydney%20Leads%20Global%20Yields%20-%20Graph%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/07/Sydney%20Leads%20Global%20Yields%20-%20Graph%202.jpg" alt="">
 A look into each global market
Australia/New Zealand
Mr Crabb said the $27 billion worth of commercial property transactions recorded in Australia in 2016 remained above the five year average for the fourth year running and while the market was on track to record a fifth consecutive year of growth, a lack of portfolios and a diminishing supply of prime properties would limit investment volumes. Foreign investors were the most active in 2016 purchasing 40 percent of stock reported sold - approximately $10.7 billion - while professional investors, represented by Trusts, Funds and Syndicates, spent $8.75 billion. Mr Crabb said while both buyer groups remained keenly interested in ongoing investment, yields would continue to firm. “In some markets, particularly Sydney and Melbourne, market fundamentals are improving rapidly. We believe this improvement will lead to further tightening in yields as investment capital starts to price in expectations of future NOI growth. This part of the yield cycle is just beginning,” he said. Asia
In Hong Kong Savills Senior Director, Research and Consultancy, Simon Smith, said yields across Asian investment markets had firmed but there was still some limited scope for further falls. “The low interest rate environment, the ongoing search for yield and increasing allocations to real estate are all considered to be positives for the sector. “One of the most significant challenges for investors is a lack of prime office stock and volumes have fallen consistently compared with 2015, a situation which is unlikely to reverse any time soon,” Mr Smith said. He said the lack of liquidity across most asset classes had arguably been masked by the above average number of portfolio deals recorded over the second half. “Scarcity of assets has resulted in money accumulating on the side-lines causing fundraising to decline versus the previous year,” Mr Smith said. He said despite its inward focus, Asian real estate capital had continued to explore overseas markets with the US attracting the lion’s share of deals. Cross border activity, Mr Smith said, had been dominated by China, South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong in that order while South Korean activity registered the highest rate of increase.
UK/Europe
Savills Director Research Europe, Lydia Brissy, said Brexit had seen a decline in institutional investment activity but a sharp rise in demand from off-shore private investors. Many investors, she said, had been attracted by the weakening of the pound which was seen as enough to compensate for a perceived increase in occupational risk. “Overall, our predictions for 2017 and beyond are investment volumes are expected to trend downwards towards £50 billion per annum, with a swing away from opportunistic deals to income-security plays. “Yields are expected to rise in most sectors, though the stable debt market, low vacancy rates, and global investor demand is expected to put a lower ceiling on prime yields than was reached during the GFC. “Brexit definitely carries a risk of creating a sustained period of occupier uncertainty, but to some degree this should be balanced by lower levels of development activity. However, until some clarity emerges as to how Britain will exit from the EU, the real impact on the UK market will be hard to quantify,” Ms Brissy said. She said the expectation was that investment volumes in Continental Europe in 2017 would be similar to 2016. “Although interest rates are expected to rise to 1.16% in the Eurozone, the property market should remain high on investors’ radar. In France, Germany and the Netherlands where elections will be held, we expect a wait and see attitude, however the prevailing story regarding core countries is the lack of prime product. She said prime yields in non-core countries remained above the European average, offering more attractive returns and yield compression potential: “This is especially so in countries like Spain and Italy where strong property fundamentals combined with the availability of portfolio opportunities are attracting foreign investors.” USA
In New York, Director of US Real Estate Analytics at Savills Studley, Keith DeCoster, said in comparison to the volatility in equity markets, real estate in the US held up very well in 2016 with office property sales totalling $124 billion to November, roughly 4 percent below the $129.6 billion in the first 11 months of 2015. “The ‘most-favoured market’ status of some gateways is slipping slightly with most buyers showing disdain for markets such as Manhattan and Washington DC, where demand is running short of growing supply. On the other hand, they have remained active in Boston and Los Angeles, where the life science and entertainment/social media sectors continue to grow,” Mr DeCoster said. He said Boston’s market fundamentals were among the strongest in the country and appeared as though they had more to run than San Francisco, which had seen a recent spike in sublet supply and drop off in leasing, while Los Angeles has seen its strongest leasing volume in a decade.
To learn more about the latest trends in global office yields, <a href="https://www.savills.com.au/publications-pdf/savills-world-office-yield-spectrum-1h-2017.pdf" target="_blank">view the Savills World Office Yield Spectrum</a>.
Savills is a leading global real estate service provider offering the full spectrum of services from strategic advice to managing assets and projects and transacting deals. To learn more about Savills, visit <a href="https://www.savills.com.au" target="_blank">savills.com.au</a>.
 
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Sydney leads as global yields continue to firm: Savills

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GUEST OBSERVER
Commercial property sales hit a near record of approximately $28.4 billion in 2015 with 40 percent coming from offshore investors.
Sydney and Melbourne are among the top 10 destinations for international capital and with [gross or face] yields 3 percent higher than other gateway cities. These trends are so far continuing in 2016.
Given the long term nature of property it is important to look beyond the short term, so at Cromwell, we are focused on understanding how the market will look in five years and what trends will emerge across each of the sectors.
Our analysis shows that office markets are the most popular with international investors but other sectors such as hotels, retail, student accommodation and aged care are also increasingly sought after.
In all market sectors however, prices have generally run ahead of leasing fundamentals. The continued weakness of the economy means relatively subdued tenant demand for property in the short term albeit this demand should gradually improve as the economy begins to benefit from the pick-up in non-mining investment in a few years’ time.
Stronger growth in demand will then, to the extent that it leads to a tightening in leasing markets, underpin rises in rents and a further firming of prices. The timing and extent to which this happens will vary by market and geography.
A 5 year view sector by sector
Retail
Retail will show solid rather than spectacular income growth with differences between outcomes dependent on population, catchment growth and competition within each catchment.
Retailers still face significant challenges from internet shopping, a lower AUD and from aggressive competition. Even so, consumers have maintained expenditure growth and we believe that we are now largely through the weak period when increased vacancies in retail centres led to increased incentives and weak rental growth. 
Those vacancies are now drying up as demand for retail space improves.
Industrial
The industrial sector is basking in the glow of investor appetite after a long stint in the wilderness. Industrial demand is strengthening across the eastern seaboard capitals, underpinned by supply chain outsourcing and e-commerce.
Sydney is leading the pack, with the strongest demand in 15 years. The current growth drivers will remain in place, boosted as non-mining investment recovers but the rents will stay flat even though demand will be improving.
The market is still diminished by an ample supply of sites for development. There is plenty of zoned but not yet serviced land and aggressive development competition will keep a lid on growth in rents and prices.
The main issue is the impact of low interest rates on yields and hence rents. The firming of yields has improved development feasibilities, allowing developers to offer incentives which have spread to the re-leasing of existing properties. As a result, effective rents have fallen. Should interest rates rise, the development proposition would tighten and put upward pressure on effective rents. However that is still a way off.
Hotels
Hotels in capital cities catering to the business market were in extremely tight supply following the collapse in building post-GFC, particularly in cities servicing mining. That has now led to a building boom which when completed over the next few years would, if business was the only demand driver, oversupply those markets, city by city. However that will be offset in some cities by strong growth in tourism, both overseas and domestic. 
Hotels in tourist regions, where there has been very little building, will do extremely well as increased demand leads to tightening occupancy and rising room rates. We expect a boom in refurbishment and building of new hotels in tourist areas over the next 10 years. That will broaden to growth in the associated regional economies. 
Residential 
We are nearing the peak of the residential boom, but with marked differences between cities. Building is at record levels. Investor demand has driven the market, to some extent boosted by Chinese demand for bolthole properties, with owner occupiers relatively slow to follow.
Accordingly, the market has been driven by apartments with strong building in the inner-city.  Prices have risen strongly leading to concerns about affordability. This has turned into a classic cycle. The outcome will ultimately be driven by demand and supply in each market.
Office markets
Office markets fundamentals have come through an extremely difficult period dominated by weak tenant demand across the board as employment growth, and in particular business services employment (the primary driver of office demand), evaporated. 
Australia-wide, demand is now slowly recovering from that period of negative net absorption, albeit still affected in some cities by falling mining investment. There are marked differences between cities.
Regardless of these fundamentals, the Australian office market is experiencing cyclical high demand from investors, with record-low yields being accepted for CBD office assets. This is the preferred property sector for foreign capital, and will likely continue as the yield of Australian commercial assets aligns more closely with the global norm.
Summary
Overall, we believe the Australian economy will stay soft for the next two to three years as it works through the end of the mining investment boom. There will be a slow transition to more balanced growth, driven by industries benefiting from a lower AUD.
With Australian governments focusing on deficits and cost constraint, government investment is still falling overall. NSW is leading the way on using the cyclically strong investor demand to crystallise cash from asset sales to unlock future infrastructure investment. The next round of infrastructure investment will, however, take time to have an impact.
Inflation remains below target and until growth strengthens the RBA has a bias for rate cuts. The US, on the other hand, has begun raising rates and the reduced gap between the two monetary policies will likely see the AUD fall further.
There will be no recession in Australia but there will be a transitionary period. We expect it will be two to three years before non-mining business investment builds sufficient momentum and growth strengthens.
In the mean time, property fundamentals are not supporting the prices being paid for assets, and from our experience, a balancing of these two variables is inevitable.
Damian Horton is head of property, Cromwell Property Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.cromwell.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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The outlook for Australia’s property market: Damian Horton

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GUEST OBSERVER
A new report by JLL says it is time to review pre - Global Financial Crisis yardsticks to judge future investment performance for commercial real estate.  Instead, investors need to look more broadly at the long-term structural changes to the market that have been underway, behind the scenes.
And don’t wait for ‘normal’ market conditions to return, as traditional real estate benchmarks may not be reliable indicators in the future.  Some metrics, such as workspace ratios and retail turnover ratios, may no longer even be relevant in the shifting world of workplace mobility and IT connectivity.
The Report - ‘Real Estate Conundrums - Just another cycle – or a whole new ball game?’ was presented at a JLL Research event in Sydney.
Technology and urbanisation have been gathering pace for decades.  But while the cyclical nature of real estate has not been abolished, investors in real estate face a range of conundrums relating to yields, cross border investment, technology and urbanisation that can have long-term impacts for commercial real estate.
<a href="/images/2016/06/16/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-16%20at%208.26.15%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/16/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-16%20at%208.26.15%20AM.png" alt="">
The GFC has been a convenient scapegoat for the breakdown in previously trusted rules of thumb when investing in commercial real estate.  While for some the benchmarks of the years 2007-2008 do seem to mark a clear break from the patterns of the past, many trends have been evident for far longer than that.  Not everything is a GFC-driven event. For instance, real and nominal interest rates have been declining for 30 years.
The challenge for investors right now is that numerous structural and cyclical shifts are emerging, converging and interacting with each other.
Structural shifts for Australian commercial real estate:
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<li>Real estate markets are globalising – tenants, investors, developers</li>
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Yields: Low growth, low inflation, low yields are also here to stay</li>
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Cross Border Investment: Offshore capital is here to stay</li>
<li>Fundamental mismatch between capital and available assets</li>
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Market cycles have not been abolished:
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<li>Yields will cycle around lower benchmark levels</li>
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Demography a key driver of all real estate asset classes</li>
<li>Financial markets move faster than physical markets</li>
<li>Don’t wait for ‘normal’ conditions to return</li>
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Structural Shifts – Yields and Cross Border Investment:
Implicit in JLL Research forecasts is a downward structural shift in interest rates and real estate yields – in other words, the ‘lower for longer’ theory is correct.  This does not mean that cycles have been abolished.  But average yields are likely to be lower than in the past.
<a href="/images/2016/06/16/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-16%20at%208.28.57%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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Supported by growth in global pools of capital and a search for yield, JLL calculates that global cross border investment will continue to grow over the medium term.  In Australia, cross border investors accounted for 42 percent of all commercial property transactions in 2015.
While the impact of technology has been massive, the impact on real estate has been less than was anticipated 20 years ago; CBD’s remain magnets for office and retail tenants, despite rising travel and congestion costs, and inner-city residential demand (which was not foreseen) has increased substantially.
Perhaps though the falling cost of technology, the advent of wireless capabilities, combined with the rising cost and scarcity of skilled labour and rising wages (that puts a premium on commuting travel times) will now lead to a more substantial impact on real estate investment returns and a re-ranking of market values in CBD and non-CBD locations? 
If location premiums erode, non-CBD and suburban locations could be rewarding for investors.
Demography (and urbanization): – is it destiny?
Are we under-estimating the impact of the changing population age profile?  Baby-boomers and first home buyers are important – but over time there are many other impacts on real estate to consider – childcare, student housing, retirement living as well as the age profile within the working age population. 
While population will grow across all age categories in Australia, some age groups will grow much faster than others – therefore requiring specific real estate solutions – right across the spectrum from childcare, student accommodation, first home buyers, upgraders, empty nesters and retirement villages.
 
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David Rees is regional director, head of research, JLL Australasia and can be contacted <a href="https://www.jll.com.au/australia/en-au/people/113/david-rees" target="_blank">here.</a>
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Time to review pre-GFC yardsticks to judge future performance of commercial real estate: JLL's David Rees

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SPONSORED POST
It is no secret that Macquarie Park has been a favourite amongst Australia’s leading property developers and investors with AMP, Goodman, Stockland and the like all taking a substantial stake in the precinct.
Since the early days in the mid 1960’s when the bushland suburb of North Ryde was rezoned for employment land, developers and prospective investors have found solace in the safe havens of Macquarie Park which has transformed into the “Silicon Valley of Sydney” with global tech and software giants such as Microsoft, Oracle and Novartis calling it home.
Macquarie University was built in the early 1960’s as Sydney’s much needed third university, construction of residential dwellings then transpired around the fringes and soon after Macquarie Shopping Centre opened for business which proved to be a major draw card for international and domestic businesses. Since then, Macquarie Park has positioned itself as a power house in the commercial market with over 850,000 square meters of office space creating a work force of over 45,000 and with a competitive 7 percent vacancy rate.
Since 2015 when the Herring Road Precinct was rezoned, we have seen a new form of investment with local and international residential developers acquiring all the newly re zoned land with over $1 billion dollars being transacted since 2015. According to the NSW Government there is over $2.7 billion in Development Applications awaiting approval with a substantial amount also in the pipeline.
The newly created strata laws brought into effect on 1 December 2016 has proven to be the catalyst for site amalgamations in the Herring Road precinct.
Savills Residential Site Sales Directors Stuart Cox and Neil Cooke have been instrumental in amalgamating these sites and have recently taken <a href="https://commercialpropertysearch.savills.com.au/bc8f85aa-9be2-e611-80c7-005056813885/Sale/Macquarie-Park/Macquarie-Park" target="_blank">15-19 Cottonwood Crescent</a> to market with an outstanding response from international and local developers in the first couple of days.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/06/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-07%20at%209.36.43%20AM.png" alt="" width="570" height="359">
This site encapsulates three existing blocks of 15 two bedroom apartments, capable of being redeveloped into a landmark 21 storey 200 unit development under the current development controls.
According to Stuart Cox, “The re-gentrification of Macquarie Park will be home to over 10,000 new dwellings in the next 10 years with residents benefiting from the governments heavy involvement in upgrading public infrastructure through integrated transport connections and improving transport times to and from Sydney and Parramatta CBD’s.”
Strong demand for Macquarie Park has always stemmed from its education and retail backbone that has provided for over 40,000 students and 45,000 employees, new demand stems from the proximity to Sydney and Parramatta CBD’s through the new Metro Sydney Project which will provide trains every four minutes in peak hours.
Macquarie Park is also the second largest employment region in NSW and the fourth largest CBD in Australia with employment figures by BIS Shrapnel quoting a growth of over 40,000 new jobs by 2031. Residential developers have recently been acquiring sites at rates well in excess of $3,500 per square meter of Gross Floor Area for the privilege to own and develop in the extremely hot Herring Road Precinct.
This article was written by Johnathon Broome, Savills Residential Site Sales Executive.
For more information from Savills, <a href="https://www.savills.com.au" target="_blank">click here</a>.
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Billionaires play in the Park

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GUEST OBSERVER
Market activity in commercial and industrial real estate can be assessed under two types of market interest.
Owner-occupiers are strong at the affordable end of the market as business operators well understand that it is preferable to own rather than rent the properties they use or need for their businesses.
For many business owners it is much more effective to own rather than rent their premises, especially with the prevailing low interest rates.
It is also quite common to see the property purchased at auction held in the name of a superannuation fund where it is leased back to the operating business at often for an attractive return.
The second strong area of interest is from investors with self managed superannuation funds.
For a lot of SMSF investors a commercial property provides a diversification and they are regularly being advised by their accountants or specialist advisers to acquire a commercial investment.
Certainly the return is usually better than a residential investment because a commercial property that is well and securely leased provides a more reliable income stream than almost any other type of property investment.
I always say that in investing in any type of property the purchaser needs to know and understand the key market fundamentals.
This includes factors like market liquidity, add on costs like State Land Tax and the transaction costs of stamp duties, legals, agency or management fees and transaction costs as both a buyer and as a potential seller.
Often my engagement may involve trying to right the wrongs caused by poor leasing advice and structure to rectify a property’s optimum lease structure.
For instance, I am currently appointed by the Melbourne Theosophical Society to manage the proposed sale of their long held historic building at 126-128 Russell Street.
A landmark four level building in part occupied by the Society it has multiple tenancies and is currently generating an annual rental income of around $350,000.
My expectation is that 126-128 Russell Street will be offered to the market before the end of the current financial year and given the shortage of key CBD freeholds on offer it is likely to be keenly bid.
David O’Callaghan is the managing director of O’Callaghan Commercial and can be contacted <a href="https://www.ocallcommercial.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>. 
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Understanding commercial market fundamentals: David O’Callaghan

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GUEST OBSERVER
Last year saw another year of strong performance in property investment markets across Australia, with Savills recording approximately $27 billion worth of commercial property transactions in the 12 months to December 2016.
Although this is down on the previous year ($33.74 billion), it’s much the same as the five year average ($25.6 billion). The reason behind the numbers is the lack of portfolios and a diminishing supply of prime properties continuing to weigh on investment volumes.
When comparing global yields in the World Office Yield Spectrum, of the gateway cities, Sydney led the pack offering by far the most attractive yields at 5.37 percent, with LA West and San Francisco the only others offering above 4.50 percent.
A look at regional performances
Australian interest rates fell to historic lows due to the slowdown in resource demand from China, a reversal of commodity prices and the end of the mining investment boom (coupled with the GFC). A subsequent pickup in occupier and investment demand in Melbourne and Sydney followed whilst there was a substantial reversal in fortunes in Brisbane and Perth. 
Whilst Brisbane has stabilised, Perth continues to be challenged (more office supply is in the pipeline), Melbourne is meeting both occupier and investment demand with a supply response whilst Sydney remains challenged on the supply front. An added difficulty in both Melbourne and Sydney is the continual withdrawal of office space and development sites (both in CBD and non-CBD office markets) for conversion to residential or compulsory acquisition for public works.
A look at the future
Commercial property investment yields continued to firm across the board (by an average 20 basis points) – a theme we have been seeing for several years now. Whilst the “bond yield” story has run its course, in some markets, fundamentals are improving rapidly. We believe this improvement will lead to further tightening in yields as investment capital starts to price in expectations of future NOI growth.
Generally, office markets look set for another year of strong investment driven by office property’s most preferred investment status, along with economic and political factors which are pushing investors towards the safety of bricks and mortar.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/28/blog-research-worldofficeyields-2017-auschart.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/28/blog-research-worldofficeyields-2017-auschart.jpg" alt="">
With some level of economic and political uncertainty remaining in most markets, it is fair to say that office risk premiums will continue to offer very good value and hence drive demand and, in some instances, even firmer office investment yields.
Much of what happens in 2017 and beyond will depend on the course the US Federal Reserve takes with regards to interest rates and the new President’s policy settings. Those factors, along with Brexit negotiations and elections in key European countries, will largely determine how currencies behave, how trade flows and how capital moves around the world.
Tony Crabb is Savills Australia’s national head of research and can be contacted <a href="https://www.savills.com.au/blog/author/109174/Tony" target="_blank">here</a>. 
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Australian investment property: a look back and a look to the future

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Commercial property confidence is at much more encouraging levels than its residential counterpart, according to the latest ANZ Property Council Survey.
The survey found that the gap in confidence between commercial and residential property has now reached record levels.
Despite this, commercial sentiment has also dropped.
The drop in sentiment in the most recent quarter occurred across all segments, although the retail segment is still the weakest.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/11/AMP%20Capital%201.JPG" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/10/11/AMP%20Capital%201.JPG" alt="">
Sluggish income growth, rising mortgage rates and utility costs and reduced wealth effects as house prices fall are all issues reducing the level of household consumption taking place.
Online retailing and global competition are also continuing to hinder domestic bricks and mortar retailers.
However, the industrial segment is now the most optimistic, displacing tourism.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/11/AMP%20Capital%202.JPG" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/10/11/AMP%20Capital%202.JPG" alt="">
Firms in the industrial industry report that the construction pipeline has increased further over the recent quarter, especially in New South Wales, while it remains elevated in Victoria and Queensland.
Danial Gradwell and David Plank, the authors of the report stated:
"The outlook for capital values is solid, which we think is consistent with demand coming from the strong pipeline of infrastructure projects coming through in those states.
"In addition, while online retailing is disrupting the retail sector, the storage and logistics requirements are supporting the industrial sector."
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/11/AMP%20Capital%203.JPG" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/10/11/AMP%20Capital%203.JPG" alt="">
"It is disappointing to see that survey respondents’ appraisal of the federal government has retreated considerably," the report said.
"While the September quarter showed a solid improvement in the government performance index (likely in response to the 2018-19 Budget), the subsequent leadership spill in August appears to have hindered confidence once more."
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Commercial property confidence is solid, for now: ANZ

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As we enter reduced restriction levels as our stages of lockdown change, this is a positive sign for the economy that we are starting to resume business activities, albeit in a new way.
During this time, Ray White Commercial has been active in listing, selling and leasing commercial assets with many investors, developers and business owners keen to continue to plan for the future. 
The way which we do business may have changed but it has also resulted in the advancement of technologies which will be now more accepted such as online auctions, virtual tours etc. 
With record low interest rates and banks now more mobilized to complete transactions, we continue to see high levels of enquiries and buyers with finance ready with the ability to transact.
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Sales activity for this week remains at a similar level to last week recording over $114 million across 32 transactions. 
This week we have seen the average sale price of over $3.5 million well ahead of last week which featured a higher volume of smaller sales with an average of just $2.2 million. 
Close to $50 million of these sales were transacted in Queensland, spread across all asset classes with retail and development site activity greater than traditional industrial assets while medical related properties also sold. 
We have seen a number of medical facilities change hands this year and a growing number of enquiries in this sector may see it a more favourable investment option in a post COVID-19 economy.
NSW sales were limited but development site activity together with a number of smaller regional assets, while WA featured prominently this week with a number of industrial sales.
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Over the last six weeks, Ray White Commercial has recorded over $1.17 billion in Australian commercial transactions in the sub $50 million asset class. 
The reduced sentiment due to the current COVID-19 crisis not significantly dampening activity for private investor and developer purchasers while a number of institutional buyers have also transacted. 
Over this short period the spread of assets which have sold highlight the ongoing demand for a range of stock suggesting future confidence across all asset classes despite the current economic uncertainty. 
Industrial assets contribute a quarter of all sales while development sites increase their foothold representing 22.13 per cent of turnover. The office and retail asset classes which were anticipated to be adversely affected by the pandemic has accounted close to 38 per cent of all turnover demonstrating longer term confidence of this class. Encouragingly, uses such as hotels, aged care, child care and student housing have all seen robust investment activity.
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Commercial property transaction volumes sub $50 million: Ray White

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The valuation firm Herron Todd White has issued its latest property clock for the commercial retail market - a simple broad brush means to suggest where property markets are - and what direction prices are moving in.
The valuation firm has included capital and regional cities on the property clock for house price direction.
<a href="/images/2015/09/08/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-08%20at%2011.19.40%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/09/08/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-08%20at%2011.19.40%20AM.png" alt="" width="810" height="563">
For more information, <a href="https://www.htw.com.au/" target="_blank">click here</a>.
 
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