Cities

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Providing ramps where there are steps or stairs is just one way to help people with a disability get around.
You would think a city that each year hosts <a href="https://www.valid.org.au/having-say" target="_blank">Australia’s largest conference for people with disability</a> would be the most accessible for all people.
Not according to our <a href="http://deakinhomeresearchhub.com/aig/" target="_blank">research</a> which highlights 119 issues that need fixing if Geelong, Victoria, wants to be a model “city for all”.
Clearly there’s a shortfall between aspiration and reality, which is surprising given that in the last <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/Home/census" target="_blank">Census count</a>, about <a href="https://profile.id.com.au/geelong/assistance" target="_blank">6% of Geelong’s population</a> reported they needed help because of disability. That’s higher than the national figure of 5.1%.
Geelong is also home to the National Disability Insurance Agency, WorkSafe, and the Traffic Accident Commission, so it should be a shining example of what is termed access and inclusion (A&amp;I) for people with a disability.
A city for everyone
The challenge for Geelong is to identify what is a model city for people with a disability.
There are a few examples to consider. Many cities around the world have tackled disability access through technological solutions to help people get around, such as <a href="http://www.ibeacon.com/what-is-ibeacon-a-guide-to-beacons/">personal navigation</a> with smartphones.
Melbourne introduced <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/new-technology-a-helping-hand-for-melbournes-vision-impaired-20171015-gz14u2">beacons that connect to a smartphone app</a>, to help vision-impaired people navigate their way inside Southern Cross Station and <a href="https://www.ptv.vic.gov.au/more/travelling-on-the-network/accessibility/vision-or-hearing-impairment/">some other stations</a>.
Overseas, the city of Breda, in the Netherlands, was this year declared <a href="https://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-6630_en.htm">Europe’s most accessible city</a>. It has done several things to improves access, such as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019/may/28/people-arent-disabled-their-city-is-inside-europes-most-accessible-city">smoothing the centuries-old cobbled pathways</a>, providing ramps, and rolling out digital navigation across the city.
Central to all these efforts is the collaborative design of solutions, working with people who have experience of disability access.
The need for change
In Geelong, more than 100 people responded to a visitor’s survey, and 75 people with experience of disability participated in a series of three workshops and three focus groups.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294946/original/file-20191001-173347-zt3tkk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294946/original/file-20191001-173347-zt3tkk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Tapping into local knowledge at a workshop at Deakin University. Deakin University, Author provided
We found there are a series of things that could be implemented to improve accessibility and exclusion in Geelong.
Some things are simple, such as providing ramps instead of steps, and adequate restroom facilities; others involve remaking the city and may seem more difficult.
But the response from people with disability was typically modest, with one participant saying “we don’t expect the Taj Mahal”.
In all, we recommend six priority areas for action.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/295142/original/file-20191002-101499-1myvbpa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/295142/original/file-20191002-101499-1myvbpa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Deakin University, Author provided
A number of problems continue to undermine efforts to rectify city-wide problems and these must be addressed. These include amendments to legislation to define and ensure “access” and “inclusion” are within the planning framework.
There also needs to be significant change to the business-as-usual approaches to housing, instead prioritising the supply of public and community housing in general, but especially for people with disability.
On employment, we need to co-design workplace arrangements so both the needs of people with disability and employers are met. This is key to ensuring those with a disability who seek work are able to attain it.
Access to information
One action identified was to build an Inclusive Geelong Visitor Centre (IGVC) run and managed by people with disability, with accessibility support staff. The centre would provide accessibility information and serve as a landing pad where people can gather information before exploring the city.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294955/original/file-20191001-173364-18vveoc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294955/original/file-20191001-173364-18vveoc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
It helps to know where to go to find information on disabled access and services. Deakin University, Author provided
Many participants noted this idea has been discussed in various forums for the past 30 years, but nothing had ever happened.
Projects like this are often seen as luxuries that are more symbolic than tangible. Our analysis shows that if implemented in coordination with a series of other actions, such as providing disability support services and empowering people with disability to lead conversations, it could encourage further change and reform.
In isolation, an IGVC was evaluated by the community as having a high impact rating (10/10), but a low feasibility rating (3/10). The low perception of feasibility perhaps explains why this project has never come to fruition.
At a bare minimum, an IGVC must have a full suite of accessibility support services and provide spaces for all abilities where people can access up-to-date information and plan activities for the length of their stay.
The centre would allow people with disability to make informed choices about accessible travel, accommodation, services, and other aspects of urban participation.
It should be staffed by qualified support workers and people with disability, connect people to different support agencies and work with providers to bring accommodation up to accessible standard.
But no meaningful impact can be realised by isolating any actions from the list of fixes. There needs to be consideration of how all other factors relate to issues of accessibility and inclusion across multiple scales.
These lessons are not just for Geelong, other cities could also follow these steps to make themselves more inclusive and accessible.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124420/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
David Kelly, Human Geographer, Deakin University
Richard Tucker, Associate Professor, Associate Head of School (Research), co-leader of the research network HOME, Deakin University
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/making-our-cities-more-accessible-for-people-with-disability-is-easier-than-we-think-124420" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Increasing accessibility for those with disability isn't that hard: Deakin University

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Humans have a long history of living on water. Our water homes span the fishing villages in Southeast Asia, Peru and Bolivia to modern floating homes in Vancouver and Amsterdam. As our cities grapple with overcrowding and undesirable living situations, the ocean remains a potential frontier for sophisticated water-based communities.
The United Nations has expressed support for <a href="https://www.un.org/press/en/2019/dsgsm1269.doc.htm" target="_blank">further research into floating cities</a> in response to rising sea levels and to house climate refugees. A speculative proposal, Oceanix City, was unveiled in April at the first <a href="https://www.un.org/press/en/2019/dsgsm1269.doc.htm" target="_blank">Round Table on Sustainable Floating Cities</a> at UN headquarters in New York.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276269/original/file-20190524-187176-ooh8cp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Life on a floating city, Oceanix. <a class="source" href="https://oceanix.org/media/" target="_blank">OCEANIX/BIG-Bjarke Ingels Group</a>
The former tourism minister of French Polynesia, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/marccollinschen/" target="_blank">Marc Collins Chen</a>, and architecture studio <a href="https://big.dk/#about" target="_blank">BIG</a> advanced the proposal. Chen is involved with the <a href="https://www.seasteading.org/" target="_blank">Seasteading Institute</a>, which is seeking to develop autonomous city-states floating in the shallow waters of “<a href="https://www.seasteading.org/about/vision-strategy/" target="_blank">host nations</a>”.
While this latest proposal has gained UN attention, it is an old idea we have repeatedly returned to over the past 70 years with little success. In fact, the Oceanix City proposal has not reached the same level of technical sophistication as previous models.
A brief history of floating cities
The architecture community was fascinated with <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13602360500285641" target="_blank">marine utopias between the 1950s and ’70s</a>. The technological optimism of this period led architects to consider whether we could build settlements in inhospitable places like the polar regions, the deserts and on the sea.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276277/original/file-20190524-187176-jxhgel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Plan for Tokyo Bay by Kenzo Tange, 1960. <a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metabolism_(architecture)#/media/File:Tokyo_Bay_Plan_by_Tange_1960.jpg" target="_blank">Wikimedia</a>
<a href="https://www.mori.art.museum/english/contents/metabolism/about/index" target="_blank">The Japanese Metabolists</a> put forward incredible projects such as Kenzo Tange’s 1960 Tokyo Bay Plan and the marine city proposals of Kikutake and Kurokawa.
In the West, <a href="https://www.archdaily.com/253750/happy-birthday-buckminster-fuller-1895-1983" target="_blank">Buckminster Fuller</a> proposed Triton City, which would be connected to the mainland via bridges. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2018/nov/18/archigram-60s-architects-vision-urban-living-the-book" target="_blank">Archigram, a neofuturistic architectural group</a>, proposed underwater sea farms.
These proposals were directed at solving the impending urban crises of overpopulation and pressures on land-based resources. Many were even <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13602360500285641" target="_blank">sophisticated enough to be patented</a>.
The arc of this global architectural discussion was captured during the first UN Habitat conference (“Habitat I”) in Vancouver in 1976. In many ways, the UN has returned to the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.jstor.org/stable/43620457?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents" target="_blank">Vancouver Declaration from Habitat I</a> to “[adopt] bold, meaningful and effective human settlement policies and spatial planning strategies” and to treat “human settlements as an instrument and object of development”.
We are seeing a pivoting that began in 2008 with Vincent Callebaut’s “<a href="http://vincent.callebaut.org/object/080523_lilypad/lilypad/projects/user" target="_blank">Lilypad</a>” - a “floating ecopolis for ecological refugees”.
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rJmB-dtt_qI?wmode=transparent&amp;start=0" frameborder="0" width="440" height="260"></iframe>
Where floating cities were once dismissed as too far-fetched, the concept has been repackaged and is re-emerging into public consciousness. This time in a more politically viable state - as a means of addressing the climate emergency.
The technology and types of floating city structures
No floating settlements have ever been created on the high seas. Current offshore engineering is concerned with how cities can locate infrastructure, such as airports, nuclear power stations, bridges, oil storage facilities and stadiums, in shallow coastal environments rather than in deep international waters.
Two main types of very large floating structures (VLFS) technology can be used to carry the weight of a floating settlement.
The first, pontoon structures, are flat slabs suitable for floating in sheltered waters close to shore.
The second, semi-submersible structures (such as oil rigs), comprise platforms that are elevated on columns off the water surface. These can be located in deep waters. Potentially, <a href="http://wcfs2019.floatingsolutions.org/2018/11/07/repurposing-jack-ups-semi-submersibles-and-super-barges-into-offshore-and-nearshore-settlements/" target="_blank">oil rigs could be repurposed for such floating cities in international waters</a>.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273724/original/file-20190510-183103-13tbuou.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Transforming oil rigs into liveable structures. Ku Yee Kee and Hor Sue-Wern’s entry in the 2011 eVolo Skyscraper Competition. <a class="source" href="http://www.evolo.us/transforming-abandoned-oil-rigs-into-habitable-structures/" target="_blank">Ku Yee Kee &amp; Hor Sue-Wern/ eVolo</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY</a>
Oceanix City is based on the pontoon structure. This would restrict it to shallower waters with breakwaters to limit the impacts of waves. This sort of structure could serve as an extension of a coastal city, as a life raft for island communities inundated by rising waters, or to <a href="http://wcfs2019.floatingsolutions.org/2018/11/12/design-guidelines-for-upgrading-living-conditions-in-wetslums/" target="_blank">provide mobile essential services to residents of flood-prone slums</a>.
Sovereign floating cities and micronations
While some early marine utopian proposals were responses to emerging urban issues, many proposals conceptualised <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13602360500285641" target="_blank">“seaborne leisure colonies”</a>. These communities would be independent city-states allowing inhabitants to circumvent tax laws or restrictions on medical research in their own countries.
This sort of floating city was conceived of as a micronation with sovereignty and ability to provide citizenship to its occupants. The example was set by the <a href="https://www.sealandgov.org/" target="_blank">Principality of Sealand</a>, off the coast of Britain.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276282/original/file-20190524-187157-1cx6cb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
The Principality of Sealand is a micronation situated on Roughs Tower, a platform off the coast of Britain. <a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/octal/487066477/in/photolist-K3kTT-K3cX8-K31B9-fEWY5s-dmuTKL-9BwfaP-8X9owh-6xepMg-4xuCns-mxvpNS-T2YyAS-KhLYkp-TPVe7P-4dQzQe-9ydsV8-dU6HSQ-59RH1W-4xqrdM-4xuCQC-6TTFv1-juStE-py5QQM-o8tHuy-4xqqMM-4xuBG1-6TTCp9-9YAPn7-6SQ1iy-g5hj1h-TGjue4-hNEcW1-7wbpKR-7wbS5V-252v7aW-e5apAk-o66jYb-5VPqK2-28gwVUz-WadBt6-xoQ3G-fUP67E-2eiBc2R-6ZEjEb-oZ81Ys-oQ9bBu-7RL9xE-bn7XhF-5GpwHF-mxvv2N-5Gpxea" target="_blank">Ryan Lackey/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY</a>
None of these proposals have succeeded. Even modern attempts such as the Freedom Ship and the Seasteading Institute’s plans for an autonomous floating settlement under French Polynesian jurisdiction have stalled. A recent attempt at creating a sovereign micronation (seastead) off Thailand led to its proponents becoming fugitives, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-18/bitcoin-couple-face-death-penalty-in-thailand-for-seastead/11031336" target="_blank">potentially facing the death penalty</a>.
A viable project?
Technology is not a barrier to floating cities in international waters. Advances in technology enable us to create structures for habitation in deep sea waters. These schemes have never really taken off because of political and commercial barriers.
While this time round proponents are packaging floating cities in a more politically viable concept as a life raft for climate refugees, commercial barriers remain. Apart from the UN, few organisation have the economic and political influence or reason to deliver a satellite floating city in the ocean.
In my view, the future of ocean cities is in technology campuses and in tourism. Given the significant risk of a community in extreme isolation in international waters, the solution to bringing people together in mid-ocean requires us to think about what connects us: technology, work and play. In these three elements we see, perhaps, the two lowest-hanging fruits (or the most buoyant of possibilities) for ocean cities.
The first is in floating tech campuses where large technology companies set up floating data centres and campuses in international waters. Situated outside national jurisdictions, these campuses could circumvent increasingly onerous privacy regimes or offer innovative technological services without having to negotiate regulatory barriers.
The second prospect is a return to the seaborne leisure colonies of the past. Companies like Disney could expand on their cruise offerings to build floating theme parks. These resorts could be sited in international waters or hosted by coastal cities.
Given our fascination with living on water, even if Oceanix City does not suceed, it won’t be long before we see another floating city proposal. And if we get the mix of social, political and commercial drivers right, we might just find ourselves living on one.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116511/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276291/original/file-20190524-187143-9fjuu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
The Disney Cruise Line could potentially develop seaborne leisure colonies in future. <a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/dieguico/6711417377/in/photolist-be4LyH-GF3ZEQ-fgkwZ9-bDyhSP-eb3ppx-dJC5yy-dvknz-UnsmHH-bCighc-J167Cv-4YcMpZ-eLQt3N-6mNWvF-4JNMYm-4x1Ykd-fg67VX-4YcMkZ-fHxtck-pyXdDW-5fXWZk-cbqhLw-223Sqgb-dVUAxZ-badfuK-4MUNA6-24pEDpa-yomb3-7mmExM-bfWuU2-5XZhQw-fNSsK6-2dCgPj8-24pE8Rx-a8wRQk-jhpovE-5ZhepL-24pE87r-24pECq6-24pE8D8-RfJ9ik-agoZ6A-86eVfe-4YKXgB-2a4aKE3-dayZLx-4YcMGx-agoBFu-fqtGUb-agp9sw-o2At4d" target="_blank">Diego Villuendas Pellicero/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-NC</a>
Brydon T. Wang, Research Assistant and PhD Candidate, Queensland University of Technology
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/floating-cities-the-future-or-a-washed-up-idea-116511" target="_blank">original article</a>.
Main photo: Oceanix, a proposed floating city, has captured the attention of the UN. <a href="https://oceanix.org/media/" target="_blank">OCEANIX/BIG-Bjarke Ingels Group</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brydon-t-wang-441848" target="_blank"> </a>
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Floating cities: the future or a washed-up idea?

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From 1900 to 2010, the amount of materials accumulated in buildings and infrastructure across the world increased <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/114/8/1880.full" target="_blank">23-fold</a>. We are depleting our resources at <a href="http://uneplive.unep.org/" target="_blank">unprecedented rates</a>. Instead of extracting dwindling raw materials from nature at ever-increasing cost, the time has come to start re-using materials from buildings and infrastructure in our cities.
We have been working on identifying the material resources in cities that could be “mined” for re-use. In a case study, we modelled more than 13,000 buildings in central Melbourne, Australia. We estimated the quantities of construction materials as well as the embodied energy, water and greenhouse gas emissions associated with constructing these buildings (if they were built today). We also modelled the replacement of materials over time and into the future.
The extraction and transformation of resources have broad environmental effects. These include resource depletion, loss of biodiversity, soil and water pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions, which drive climate change.
Adding to these challenges is the amount of waste generated, especially by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cleaning-up-the-construction-industry-31" target="_blank">construction sector</a> due to construction, renovation and demolition activities. Every time a construction material is discarded, all the embodied energy, water and emissions that went into producing it also go to waste.
In our two <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2016.11.043" target="_blank">recent</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.09.022">studies</a>, we propose a model that can help us “mine” our cities and quantify the environmental benefits of this urban mining.
<h2>Modelling all buildings in a city</h2>
We used the City of Melbourne, representing the central business district and immediate surrounds, as a case study. This is because the City of Melbourne offers open-source and high-resolution data that allowed us to model the materials found in individual buildings.
By combining the <a href="http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/about-melbourne/research-and-statistics/city-economy/census-land-use-employment/Pages/clue.aspx" target="_blank">Census of Land Use and Employment database</a> with the <a href="https://data.melbourne.vic.gov.au/Property-Planning/Building-Footprints-2015/pv8y-ihee" target="_blank">Building Footprints database</a>, we had access to basic geometric and construction-related data for each of the 14,385 buildings in this area in 2015. Of these, we modelled 13,075, as some very small or unique buildings (stadiums, railway stations, etc.) had to be discarded. We used 48 building archetypes, based on the building type (e.g. office), construction year (e.g. 1987) and height (e.g. 25 metres), to represent the different buildings in the city.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196841/original/file-20171129-28866-rzch9i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196841/original/file-20171129-28866-rzch9i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
More than 13,000 buildings were modelled in the City of Melbourne. André Stephan &amp; Aristide Athanassiadis
Results show that the City of Melbourne has a stock of 1.5 million tonnes of materials in every square kilometre. Just replacing worn materials to maintain this built stock is estimated to require 26 thousand tonnes of materials every year.
Rebuilding the City of Melbourne today would use about 10 petajoules of energy and 17.7 million cubic metres of water. The construction would emit 605,000 tonnes of greenhouse gases per square kilometre.
These resource requirements are simply huge. For instance, the energy used for every square kilometre built is enough to drive 700,000 cars from Melbourne to Sydney. Picture all the urban development around the world, then just try to imagine <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-cities-need-to-go-on-a-resource-diet-68984" target="_blank">all the resources required</a>.
Aside from producing these overall estimates, the real value in our model lies in the detail it provides about the use of materials in the city. It can answer questions such as where and when construction materials are needed, and in what quantities. And what are the associated environmental effects?
<h2>Visualising material flows</h2>
For the 13,075 buildings modelled, we ended up with more than 500 million data points. We needed to come up with effective <a href="https://social.shorthand.com/SciDevNet/3geA2Kw4B5c/data-visualisation-contributions-to-evidence-based-decision-making" target="_blank">data visualisation</a> to inform decision-makers about how we can mine cities.
The most important result we found is depicted in a map showing the quantities of each material within each building. We are able to do that for any given year or period. This enables us to track which materials are expected to be replaced in what quantities and in what buildings.
These maps allow us to start thinking of cities as urban mines and places of material production (supply), rather than just consumption (demand).
We can imagine how a new construction project could survey what materials would be available at its start and how it can best re-use these and incorporate them into the design. This would save large amounts of energy and water, while avoiding greenhouse gas emissions and further ecosystem degradation from raw material extraction (usually far from the city).
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195142/original/file-20171117-29111-aidrim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195142/original/file-20171117-29111-aidrim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Selected material stock (2015) and embodied energy of the City of Melbourne. André Stephan &amp; Aristide Athanassiadis
We borrowed the concept of the age pyramid from population studies to represent the material stock in the city’s buildings. This allows us to understand which materials stay in the stock and for how long.
It also helps us better anticipate when a significant amount of materials is expected to be replaced, resulting in construction waste and a demand for new materials. The maps show where this is going to take place.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195143/original/file-20171117-15435-1knnu4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195143/original/file-20171117-15435-1knnu4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
An age pyramid represents the age and quantities of construction materials in the building stock, and helps to better appreciate periods of expected replacement. André Stephan &amp; Aristide Athanassiadis
<h2>Long journey to a circular economy</h2>
While we have produced tools that can help with urban mining, we are still far from a truly <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-a-circular-economy-29666" target="_blank">circular economy</a> for the construction sector.
Firstly, our model suffers from a significant amount of uncertainty: it is only as good as the data we feed it. While the City of Melbourne has good-quality data for its buildings, we really struggle to estimate how long materials last, notably at the scale of a building. We need more research and data to better estimate the material composition of buildings, the periods of material replacements or building refurbishments, as well as the materials released and available for re-use.
Secondly, we need to better design our buildings for disassembly. A material that is being replaced is not directly re-usable in most cases due to wear or damage, possibly during demolition.
If we design and prefabricate modular buildings that can easily be disassembled, we can greatly improve the potential for re-use and recycling. This would help us move towards <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-a-truly-sustainable-world-we-need-zero-waste-cities-10552" target="_blank">zero-waste cities</a>.
A third way forward is to rethink how construction materials and systems are designed and for what purpose. Instead of buying carpet for an office, a company could pay for the service “floor area covered by carpet”. This would shift ownership of the carpet to <a href="http://www.desso.fr/globalaccounts/regus/take-back%E2%84%A2-programme/" target="_blank">the supplier</a>.
In turn, that would create an incentive to produce durable, high-quality materials that could be re-used and recycled, instead of programmed obsolescence. Such business models are already starting to emerge.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87672/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">With our growing global population, finite resources and climate change, we need to move fast towards a more circular construction sector to help ease the pressure on the Earth’s resources and ecosystems. Models such as the ones we are developing are a step forward on a long journey.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andre-stephan-14991" target="_blank">André Stephan</a>, Lecturer in Architectural Engineering, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722" target="_blank">University of Melbourne</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/aristide-athanassiadis-423773" target="_blank">Aristide Athanassiadis</a>, Postdoctoral Researcher, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/universite-libre-de-bruxelles-1220" target="_blank">Université Libre de Bruxelles</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-the-right-tools-we-can-mine-cities-87672" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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as-hWJFCWwWMs

We can mine cities with the right tools

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Leasing momentum remains robust across Asia-Pacific prime office markets, helped by growing market confidence and a strong recovery of Asia’s export markets so far in 2017, according to Knight Frank.
Robust trade growth, a slight recovery in commodity prices and increased manufacturing and investment paint a good picture of the near-term outlook for major Asia-Pacific prime office markets.
Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane were all in the top 10 for office yields, according to Knight Frank's latest research.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/12/4/OfficeYields.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/12/4/OfficeYields.png" alt="">
“Over the next 12 months, we expect rents in 16 cities out of the 20 tracked to either remain steady or increase, which is the same as our previous forecast,” according to report author Ying Khuan Pow.
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Rosy near-term outlook for major Asia-Pacific prime office markets: Knight Frank 

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Established world city real estate markets are going to see lower capital growth in the next decade as interest rates rise, so income will be the key reason for investing, according to a new report from Savills.
The real estate firm has identified cities which are resource rich, young and fast-growing, economic powerhouses or at low risk of natural disasters as ones to watch for the next decade.
According to its maiden publication, report, Impacts: the future of global real estate, Savills says the ability of cities to attract people and talent pools will be a key indicator of income security in the next 10 years.
Savills has analysed rental growth in different real estate sectors in world cities and plotted where each stands on the new Savills rental wave.
It identifies cities and sectors which investors may want to take look at more closely for security of income and potential rental growth.
<ul>
<li>Prime office growth has been highest in San Francisco (+99%), Shenzhen and Beijing (both +71%) and London West End (+69%) since 2008. This leaves these city sectors near the top of the rental curve: in late upswing, on a high plateau or in early downswing.</li>
<li>In Singapore, double digit falls have been seen in prime offices (-26%), residential (-25%) and prime retail (-15%), leaving these sectors in or near the trough of the rental wave.</li>
<li>Hotels in Shanghai, prime industrial in Melbourne and Shenzhen residential are examples of early-stage rental growth in the current cycle suggesting further potential, but investors may face tough competition and high prices for assets in these markets.</li>
<li>Shenzhen has experienced the most rental growth in residential since the end of 2008 (+82%).</li>
<li>New and growing economic powerhouse Jakarta is near the end of the late downswing phase of the cycle and potentially offers high rental growth, but with the greater risk of a young market in an emerging economy.</li>
<li>Established investment classes in world cities, e.g. prime offices in cities like London, Tokyo and San Francisco are at the top of the wave but may offer a safe harbour for investors as rents could remain on a ‘high plateau’ for some time.</li>
</ul>
“If the 50 years of real estate investment before 2007 were about capital growth and the post GFC decade about survival and riding the recovery, the next ten years and beyond will be about security of income in a low interest rate world, with investors increasingly shifting their focus towards rental markets in world cities,” says Yolande Barnes, head of Savills World Research.
“Whether investors are looking for capital growth or stable income streams, the behaviour of rental markets is key”, says Barnes. “Rents don’t lie; they’re a function of two market fundamentals: occupier demand – put simply, where people want to be - and supply conditions. In many global investment markets, there is very little scope for further yield compression so capital growth can only come with rental growth.”
Investment funds are increasingly focused on how to pay pensions to ageing populations in advanced countries. This is a permanent shift, made more urgent in a low inflation, low interest rate era, and increases focus on the quality of income, says Savills.
By contrast, in more emerging economies, notably across China, investors are still in the phase of needing to grow portfolios, so can take advantage of growth opportunities in riskier markets. Investors need to understand the risks posed by economic trends, new technology, social change, natural threats and resource scarcity, and how these impact different real estate sectors at a city, as well as world region, level.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/12/4/SavillsRentalWatch.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/12/4/SavillsRentalWatch.png" alt="">
<h3 class="p1">Understanding where cities sit in the rental cycle</h3>
The report introduces the Savills Rental Wave, which describes all possible stages of rental growth. Cities in the ‘early upswing’ are described as ones for investors to watch as they have scope for further rental growth, but Savills warns that intense competition for stock may lead to yield compression and high prices in some locations, while others are difficult for international investors to access.
On the basis of rental growth alone, Singapore appears poised for investment in many sectors, Jakarta and Perth in prime offices, Shenzhen for residential and prime retail, Shanghai for hotels, and Melbourne for prime industrial, but some of these cities are expensive and some sectors have already seen heavy investor activity pushing yields down.
In Melbourne, Savills Industrial Director for the South-East suburbs, Lynton Williams said there was an expectation that the market would start to show signs of rental growth as the significant rise in land values was factored into new developments.
“Industrial land values have doubled throughout the past five years, and rent levels for new buildings in the size range of 1,500sq m to 4,000sq m are moving up to between $95 and $100 per sq m,” he said.
“For larger buildings, particularly existing buildings more than 5,000sq m, the rental growth will be more muted until the current supply is leased up.”
Singapore prime office rents are still on average -26% below their 2007 level, says Savills, but Chinese investor demand for Singaporean assets has continued to suppress yields.Investor appetite reflects the expectation that the city could potentially become the region’s lead economic powerhouse.
Many core, world city residential real estate markets are heavily concentrated in the ‘late upswing’ phase, including London mainstream, Berlin, Sydney, Melbourne, Beijing and Tokyo, while Frankfurt and Shanghai are on the cusp of a ‘high plateau’. In this group, the highest residential rental growth of the past ten years has been in mainstream residential lettings in Shanghai (59%) and Sydney (57%) while European listings have also been strong since 2008, with Berlin up 53% and Frankfurt up 42%.
<h3 class="p2">Australia’s Property Market – front and centre on the world radar</h3>
According to Paul Craig, CEO, Savills Australia and New Zealand, Australia is very much on the world radar when it comes to property investment, with unique global drivers that are sometimes better understood by overseas investors than their domestic counterparts.
“While the price of Sydney CBD office assets, for example, has reached a level that is concerning to some, it must be remembered that Australia’s population is expected to grow by 8 per cent in the coming five years, according to the IMF, a level circa triple the average of developed peers,” he said.
“When these drivers are coupled with inherent supply restrictions, the drivers for outperformance are apparent to many.”
Throughout the past decade, the assets of Australian superannuation funds has doubled, the population in Sydney’s inner region has grown 26 per cent yet office stock in the CBD core has decreased by 4.3 per cent.
Craig said this is one example of a demand and supply dynamic that is almost without peer globally so it can appreciated why there has been a material uplift in demand from overseas purchasers in recent years.
“With Savills having three significant CBD campaigns in Melbourne and Sydney in the past few weeks, the capital expressing interest in the Australian market is becoming even more geographically diversified, signally a very wide global interest,” he said.
“While lacking the supply hindrances evident in Sydney, Melbourne’s demand drivers at present are a standout on the world stage, with population up more than 2.4 per cent over the past year, with employment rising 3.1 per cent and GDP growth of 3.9 per cent. Such demand drivers also cement the Melbourne market as a hotspot on the global stage.”
A high plateau positioning should not necessarily discourage investors, Savills says. The combination of economic stronghold and relative economic and political stability can augur well for those more concerned with stable and secure incomes than rental-driven capital growth in sectors such as prime offices in London, Tokyo and San Francisco or budget hotels and retail in Tokyo.
Savills Melbourne’s director for CBD &amp; Metro Sales, Clinton Baxter, said nowhere was this trend more pronounced than in Australia, or more specifically, in Melbourne.
“Throughout the past 10 years, Melbourne has benefitted from a phenomenal flight of capital from Asia seeking economic, political and capital stability, plus the benefit of competitive income returns,” he said.
“Melbourne protects the income and capital of global investors by a unique combination of stability supported by ongoing massive population growth resulting from its liveability, ongoing ‘Asianisation’, and first-class education and employment opportunities.”
Baxter said that as an ever-increasing number of foreign investors sought to invest in Melbourne’s growth story, values had increased and yields had correspondingly sharpened as a result of the incredible buying power of such investors, particularly those from Asia. 
“We only need a small increase in percentage terms of foreign buyers to have a profound positive impact on pricing and values in our markets,” he said.
“Areas favoured by Asia-based investors include the Melbourne CBD, Box Hill, Doncaster and Glen Waverley, where values of all forms of real estate have increased dramatically in the past five years due almost entirely to the impact of huge volumes of foreign capital.”
By contrast, high rental growth prospects likely come with far greater risk, for example Jakarta (where the metro population is forecast to exceed Tokyo’s by 2027, but whose real estate markets are still small and relatively immature on the world stage) or Shenzhen which is relatively inaccessible to many foreign investors but one of the most youthful and fast growing cities in the world.
“To correctly understand real estate risk, it’s imperative that investors understand markets at a city, and even a neighbourhood level and how that applies to each individual real estate sector. Rental growth prospects do not necessarily indicate a ‘buy’ status, particularly if the price is too high, or if an injection of new supply could tip a sector into oversupply and a rental double-dip,” continues Barnes.
<h3 class="p2">Youthful cities tipped for growth</h3>
Understanding social change is essential. Cities with youthful populations are more likely to be centres of higher education, magnets for skilled migration and catalysts for innovation and economic growth. Rental growth will follow, Savills says.
The firm has earmarked key cities in each world region where the Gen Z (15-34 year olds in 2027) to Gen X (50-69 year olds in 2027) ratio is forecast to be highest within the next decade, which include Shenzhen, Jakarta, Auckland and Austin.
<h3 class="p2">Savills cities to watch – measuring future occupier risk</h3>
Cities which rank as ‘economic powerhouse’ or ‘youthful’ are likely to offer a substantial variety of future opportunities for investors, says Jeremy Bates, head of Savills Worldwide Occupier Services. “The biggest asset in any nation’s economy is its people. But competition is intense for talented workforces in developed countries with ageing populations, while emerging economies are nurturing an increasing number of young people.
“New generations will drive occupier demand for certain types of buildings and locations. This will potentially lead to a shift in what constitutes a quality ‘covenant’ with buildings let on short leases to a deep pool of small local businesses potentially finding the most favour with investors as sources of reliable income.”
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Savills on rent watch as world city risk changes 

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The American writer Rebecca Solnit, in her groundbreaking collection of essays, including the eponymous <a href="https://www.guernicamag.com/rebecca-solnit-men-explain-things-to-me/" target="_blank">Men Explain Things To Me</a>, first used the term “mansplaining” to describe how men claim superior knowledge and control making the meaning of things.
In <a href="https://www.haymarketbooks.org/books/691-men-explain-things-to-me" target="_blank">her book</a>, she describes it as:
<blockquote>
… the presumption that makes it hard, at times, for any woman in any field; that keeps women from speaking up and from being heard when they dare; that crushes young women into silence by indicating, the way harassment on the street does, that this is not their world. It trains us in self-doubt and self-limitation just as it exercises men’s unsupported overconfidence.
</blockquote>
With mansplaining in mind, men who created big visions about places have shaped our sense of the city. Think, for instance, of Jørn Utzon’s Sydney Opera House and Robin Gibson’s Brutalist architecture of the contemporary arts buildings across Southbank in Brisbane.
From its parks and gardens, to roads and traffic light systems, to iconic buildings, cities are known to be created by men.
By capturing the narrative of the city’s places through mansplaining, our experience of cities is dominated by towering office buildings, monolithic civic structures and efficient, looping steel transport networks. As a result, we often experience the world through what men say and decide the world is and does.
For women, these city structures don’t hold so much design interest. As architect Fiona Scott <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2014/dec/05/if-women-built-cities-what-would-our-urban-landscape-look-like" target="_blank">said</a>:
<blockquote>
… I don’t think there are many women who think, ‘Oh, my ideal project would be a massive tower.’
</blockquote>
The vibe of a city that makes us feel welcome, safe, happy and relaxed from the first moment is more than just the sum of how men plan and engineer a city. Women’s voices and stories are present in the city but are missing from the mainstream.
Architect Paula Whitman, <a href="https://archiparlour.org/going-places/" target="_blank">writing</a> about the career progression of women architects, highlights that women want to be involved in benchmark projects but mostly in those projects making a cultural and environmental difference. As a result, women architects are often relegated to help-mate roles in building cities.
Solnit wrote about the place names of men and their exploits forming the fabric of New York City. She reimagined the city by renaming subway stations after women who contributed to history.
In Australia, from colonial times, women have built our cities, but their names and achievements went unrecognised. By naming places after them, inserting women into the landscape and language of the city, we can demonstrate women’s contributions more clearly and fairly.
<h2>Women’s contribution to our cities</h2>
Women have contributed to shaping our cities by being commissioned to create statues and memorials and designing communities, but their roles have become obscured.
Sydney-born <a href="https://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/mayo-lilian-daphne-14954" target="_blank">Daphne Mayo</a> was a sculptor commissioned to work on the Brisbane City Hall. With the Queensland-born artist <a href="https://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/lahey-frances-vida-7008" target="_blank">Vida Lahey</a>, she established the Queensland Art Reference Library at the University of Queensland in 1936.
The pair set up an art acquisition fund, the Queensland Art Fund, sourcing important works of art – including William Dobell’s <a href="https://learning.qagoma.qld.gov.au/?p=1752" target="_blank">The Cypriot</a> – for the Queensland Art Gallery. Public sculptures Mayo created included the Queensland Women’s War Memorial in Anzac Square and a statue of Sir William Glasgow.
Mayo was awarded an MBE in 1959. Yet the name of Daphne Mayo and the pioneering work of Queensland’s first female sculptor are not well known outside of architecture and academia.
Likewise, Western Australia’s first qualified town planner, <a href="https://feilmanfoundation.com.au/margaret-feilman-obituary/" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12.16px;">Margaret Feilman</a>, has largely disappeared from public knowledge. Among her many achievements, she led her town planning team in the government of Western Australia to establish Kwinana, a refinery dormitory town for 25,000 people 40 minutes south of Perth.
While politicians pressed to industrialise and boost the state’s economy, Feilman was adamant residents should be housed away from the refinery and the fumes blown by the prevailing wind.
In the 1950s, she established the state’s first formal environmental group, the Tree Society, and adopted a holistic approach to heritage, promoting a robust connection between the natural, built and indigenous environments.
<a href="https://www.doloreshayden.com/" target="_blank">Dolores Hayden</a>, in her 1980 essay, asked “<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.jstor.org/stable/3173814?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents" target="_blank">What would a non-sexist city be like?</a>”. For Hayden, the arbitrary division between home and city should be blurred, open and more accessible. Community space for childcare, recreation and communal activities should be in close proximity.
Hayden advocates for communal services, especially child care, aged care and health, with a focus on co-operatives to supply household services. She reinvents the neighbourhood to give people connection and spaces to play and interact, and to prevent them living in isolation.
In her 2016 book <a href="https://www.wakefieldpress.com.au/product.php?productid=1271" target="_blank">Places Women Make</a>, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/books/jane-jose-on-why-women-should-be-more-involved-in-designing-our-cities-20160101-glxqkr">Jane Jose</a> examines how the spaces we inhabit shape our happiness. She <a href="https://www.wakefieldpress.com.au/files/extracts/Places_Women_Make_extract.pdf" target="_blank">writes</a>:
<blockquote>
Shared public places and the way they are created will be crucial to successful, enjoyable urban life.
</blockquote>
Jose cites the contribution of women to our cities, seeing liveliness, vibrancy and liveability as hallmarks of this influence. According to Jose, men are the “hero architects” creating city buildings. But surprising, inspiring, delightful places – sea pools, museums, libraries, gardens and walks – are ways women add meaning to cities.
<h2>A way forward</h2>
Pyschogeography refers to the intimate relationship between psychology and geography. Typically, it involves wandering – or dériving, a term from the French referring to drift – unplanned journeying through a landscape, typically urban. It can be a way to make the invisible visible, or the unseen observable.
When used with a purposeful theme such as “women’s contributions to shaping the city”, it can help to focus attention on what is present in a place and what is missing. Siobhan Lyons recently <a href="https://theconversation.com/psychogeography-a-way-to-delve-into-the-soul-of-a-city-78032" target="_blank">discussed</a> the techniques in relation to uncovering the “soul of a city”.
Dorothy Wardale and Linley Lord used psychogeography to reveal the corporate culture of a university. They found, for example, men’s achievement dominated images around the university.
<a href="https://westminsterresearch.wmin.ac.uk/7679/" target="_blank">Deborah Knowles employed it</a> to see how organisations are experienced from a feminist perspective and to give back visibility to women’s roles in the workplace.
Anyone can easily use the process:
<ul>
<li>
Choose a topic or a theme.
</li>
<li>
Start to wander or dérive around a location. If you don’t want to wander solo, possibly find a walking buddy.
</li>
<li>
As you wander, note artefacts, buildings, graffiti, signage, conversations, noises, smells – anything, really – and do it with a sense of fun.
</li>
<li>
When you’ve had enough (allow at least 60 minutes, but you could dérive for hours or days), try to make sense of your observations.
</li>
</ul>
Record your observations by taking photos, making a voice recording, or writing down your impressions, ideas and feelings. You may like to try taking photos without using the viewfinder, according to the principles of <a href="https://www.lomography.com/about/the-ten-golden-rules" target="_blank">lomography</a>: “Don’t Think. Just Shoot.”
By tapping into psychogeography, rather than accepting the mansplained version of our cities, we may find it is women after all who have created the conditions for liveability.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83436/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">Women have made significant contributions to cities from colonial times, when <a href="https://artstas.com.au/our-history/history-of-ancanthe/" target="_blank">Lady Jane Franklin founded Ancanthe</a>, a museum in Hobart, Tasmania, in 1842, to the modern era, with the work of Margaret Feilman in designing entire townships. If men build cities and claim a heroic narrative, women build communities and the stories of connection.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kerry-brown-405511" target="_blank">Kerry Brown</a>, Professor of Employment and Industry, School of Business and Law, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/edith-cowan-university-720" target="_blank">Edith Cowan University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dorothy-wardale-403819" target="_blank">Dorothy Wardale</a>, Director, Executive Education in School of Buisness and Law, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/edith-cowan-university-720" target="_blank">Edith Cowan University</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/mansplaining-australian-cities-we-can-do-something-about-that-83436" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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kb-UKnx4S7iY5

Mansplaining Australian cities – we can do something about that

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GUEST OBSERVER
Concerns about the privatisation of public housing estates should not blind us to the benefits of the transfer of public housing to the not-for-profit community housing sector.
The Victorian government’s recently released housing strategy allows for the transfer of the state’s public housing stock to the community housing sector. In a recent Conversation article, Kate Shaw raises an important question – “Why should the state wriggle out of public housing?” – and condemns the transfer of public housing to private developers for redevelopment.
However, if one is really interested in providing more housing for people on low to moderate incomes, the community sector is the way to go – not public housing.
Criticism of community housing provision – in part because of its role in the UK’s liberal market reforms to public housing – neglects the reality. Community housing has underpinned the growth and viability of what many would see as some of the fairest and best-performing social housing systems in the world — those of Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands.
Management and/or ownership of land (including state land) by not-for-profit community groups ensures affordability in perpetuity. It is not lost to the private sector. And it can provide the same security as public housing, but with more innovative management practices, such as co-operatives and housing trusts.
<h2>Not-for-profits serve a range of needs</h2>
Importantly, in the Australian context, the not-for-profit sector offers a range of housing options pitched at different household needs. These include rental housing for households on low and moderate incomes and affordable home ownership.
One reason for this flexibility is that, unlike government instrumentalities, Australian community sector providers can borrow against their assets. In the appropriate financial environment (as exists in the aforementioned social democratic countries), they can then grow their asset base to meet a broad range of housing needs.
And it does appear we are slowly moving toward such a financial environment. In its budget in May, the federal government announced the creation of a National Housing and Finance Corporation (NHFC) to offer community housing agencies access to lower-cost loans. While cheaper loans are not the full financial answer (there is still a substantial yield gap between rents and loan costs), the government has established an expert panel to look at this and report back later this year.
On top of these developments, the recent Productivity Commission draft report on human services, including social housing, recommends growth of the sector including an increase in Commonwealth rent assistance. This is vital for community housing viability.
International trends aligned with the direction of policy reform in Australia suggest the not-for-profit community sector is the future for social housing growth. And this could be done in a way that addresses Shaw’s other concern — the privatisation of public land.
On this, I agree with her. Losing valuable, well-located land to the private sector creates an enormous opportunity cost; once sold it will never be available for future use.
And all we might get out of it is a 10% increase (a few thousand units) in social housing stock. But merely to keep social housing stock at the current 3.5% of all housing (the lowest in Australia) we need at least an additional 31,000 in Victoria by 2031.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/05/expert%206%20july.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/05/expert%206%20july.jpg" width="700" height="655">
<h2>Making up for decades of neglect</h2>
We do have to acknowledge that decades of underinvestment in Victoria’s public housing has left a legacy of housing estates that have gone well beyond repair and maintenance. And, given their low density, these estates are not achieving their potential in terms of either number or quality of dwellings.
In this context, the fact that the state government has set aside $185 million for its Public Housing Renewal Program is to be welcomed.
Some argue that the less-than-ideal result of a public-private partnership renewal of the old Carlton estate demonstrates that mixing public and private housing is problematic.
But what if it was a mix of public and community-managed rental and ownership housing instead?
The community sector can act in the same role as a private developer (with the state not expecting as big a financial reward), renewing the site with a mix of affordable properties for sale.
Unlike conventional private ownership, these would be covenant-protected to ensure, as with equivalent models in the US, that home ownership remains affordable. While privately owned, the properties remain within the affordable housing stock. A community housing association manages their sale and resale.
Also, the rental housing could be a mix of public and community housing. The focus would be on both high-need deep-subsidy households and moderate-income low-subsidy households. Such transformed estates would be genuinely integrated mixed communities, rather than an uneasy balance of high-need public housing at one end and high-end private housing at the other.
Across Australia, many community housing organisations have demonstrated their ability to deliver successful public housing renewal projects with a mix of households and tenure types. They have done so in an integrated and cohesive way, with privately owned units underpinning the financial viability of the projects.
Transfer of stock to the community sector is an important and valuable process of substantial community benefit, both in its own right and as part of a considered process of estate renewal.
Shaw is right. We need much more social housing, and relying on the private sector to drive the process will have an enormous opportunity cost. This will very likely constrain the capacity for future growth and affordability.
But the leaves in the tea cup suggest that the bulk of future growth should be in the not-for-profit sector. The sector can grasp the opportunities offered by policy reform in a way the public sector cannot, and provide sustained affordability and security.
Terry Burke is a Professor of Housing Studies at Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of Technology and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/terry-burke-1268" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Community sector offers a solid platform for fair social housing: Terry Burke

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Crawling along in low gear, Melbourne drivers often comfort themselves with the thought that at least they’re not in Sydney, where “everyone knows” traffic delays are longer and even more frustrating. Sorry, Melburnians, but you’re kidding yourselves.
New analysis for a forthcoming report by the Grattan Institute debunks several myths about traffic congestion in Australia’s biggest cities – including the conventional wisdom that Sydney-siders are doing it tougher.
Sydney may have <a href="">340,000 more people</a> and an enormous harbour constricting movements from one part of the city to another, but Melbourne is pretty much on a par when it comes to congestion.
<h2>Twin pictures of congestion</h2>
Chart 1 shows the delay that an average CBD commuter endures in Sydney and Melbourne, compared to how long it would take to do the trip in the early hours of the morning when the only constraints are traffic lights and speed limits.
<a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/175777/area14mp/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG"><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/175777/width754/file-20170627-21898-1mga1nj.PNG" alt=""></a> Data for more than 300 routes travelling to and from the CBD were collected 25 times each day over about 12 weeks between March and June 2017. Grattan analysis of Google Maps data, Author provided
In the morning peak, an average Melbourne CBD commuting trip takes close to 70% longer than it would in the middle of the night. The 11-kilometre trip from Brighton takes an extra 13 minutes, and the 30km trip from Caroline Springs an extra 20 minutes. The 9km from Coburg take an extra 14 minutes, while the 17km from Doncaster take an extra 20 minutes.
It’s similar in Sydney. The average morning commute to the CBD takes 50-60% longer than it would in the middle of the night. The 40km trip from Liverpool takes an extra 32 minutes, while a trip of similar length from Blacktown typically takes an extra 20. Driving the 17km from Manly takes an extra 21 minutes, while the 7km trip from the airport takes an extra 12.
It doesn’t take quite as long to get home from the city. In the afternoon peak, an average trip takes up to 60% longer than it would in the middle of the night. But it’s harder to avoid the delay: peak “hour” is much longer in the evening than in the morning. Any time from 3.30pm to 6pm you can expect your trip to take at least 40% longer.
We found these patterns by analysing Google Maps estimates of travel times for more than 300 routes across Sydney and Melbourne. The data include 25 travel-time estimates every day for several months. This includes commutes to the CBD and other employment centres, important freight routes, shorter trips within the inner, middle and outer rings, and cross-city trips.
<h2>So which drivers have the worst run?</h2>
Here’s a finding that might surprise drivers who have to crawl over the West Gate Bridge to get to and from work: the worst place to commute to Melbourne’s CBD is not from the rapidly growing western suburbs, but from the northeastern suburbs. That probably won’t surprise you if your commute includes the Eastern Freeway.
Chart 2 shows the typical delay for commuters coming to Melbourne’s CBD from the southeast, northeast, north, south and west. The northeast is the stand-out worst performer, as those who live in Doncaster, Heidelberg and beyond know all too well. Interestingly, people commuting from the west face much more modest delays.
<a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/175779/area14mp/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG"><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/175779/width754/file-20170627-29117-4py4yq.PNG" alt=""></a> Grattan analysis of Google Maps data, Author provided
Sydney does not have a single region where residents can so clearly expect bad city commutes. That doesn’t mean there’s no congestion. And neither does it mean that it’s just people going to the CBD who are caught up in the commuting tangle. It’s also all the freight vehicles, tradespeople, students going to school or uni, people going to appointments in business hours, and others going elsewhere but still caught up in the snarl of traffic.
Chart 3 shows a selection of trips that don’t include the Sydney CBD but do have delays, with the size of delay depending on the direction of the trip.
<a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/176325/area14mp/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG"><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/176325/width754/file-20170630-26970-1r9bzya.PNG" alt=""></a>
In Sydney, the delay depends more on the direction of the trip, than what side of the city commuters are driving from. Grattan analysis of Google Maps data, Author provided
The how-long-does-it-take-you-to-get-to-work story involves more than roads. One-quarter of Sydney commuters and 18% of Melbourne commuters <a href="https://bitre.gov.au/publications/2014/files/is_059.pdf" target="_blank">use public transport</a>, and these figures are much <a href="https://blogs.crikey.com.au/theurbanist/2015/01/21/why-do-commuters-drive-to-work-instead-of-taking-transit/" target="_blank">higher for commuters to the CBD</a>. Nonetheless, around <a href="https://bitre.gov.au/publications/2016/files/BITRE_yearbook_2016_statistics_full_report.pdf" target="_blank">eight of every ten kilometres of travel</a> by Sydney and Melbourne residents is by car.
What happens on our roads affects the daily lives of most city dwellers, as well as the social and economic rhythms of the city. The Grattan Institute will publish a fuller analysis of congestion in coming months, to help governments make the best use of our transport networks – and reduce your time on the road.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/marion-terrill-169480" target="_blank">Marion Terrill</a>, Transport Program Director, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168" target="_blank">Grattan Institute</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/stuck-in-traffic-busting-melbourne-versus-sydney-myths-and-identifying-the-worst-commutes-79343" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Busting Melbourne versus Sydney myths and identifying the worst commutes

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/76793/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">GUEST OBSERVER
The bond aggregator by itself cannot create a housing development pipeline. It needs co-investment from government to make it feasible.
Following Treasurer Scott Morrison’s outburst in April over the meagre supply outcomes delivered by state housing agencies, cool Treasury heads have prevailed in the budget.
The Commonwealth has not withdrawn its support. Rather, it will negotiate clear targets under a new national agreement, and aim to ring-fence capital investment to improve social housing outcomes. This will now complement the government’s new strategy of issuing bonds to finance affordable rental housing.
Morrison has already set up a taskforce to fine-tune a new bond aggregator, which the budget proposes to roll into a larger National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (NHIFC). Establishment funding of A$9.8 million and a $1 billion loan facility will get things moving.
This is safe policy territory and sound strategy. The social housing sector and all major parties have supported housing bonds and a special-purpose intermediary since the 2015 report of the Senate Inquiry into Housing Affordability. It demonstrates the explicit, long-term government commitment required to shore up investor confidence.
If the taskforce gets the design right, the intermediary will provide lower-cost, longer-term financing for affordable rental housing. This will mean public investment goes further and is recycled to build more affordable homes for those who need them.
Yet investment-ready social housing still has several requirements for success. These include good transparent planning, equity, revolving loans, and adequate revenue from rents and rent assistance. Appropriate national regulation is vital, which is also flagged in the budget.
However, without conditional public co-investment and good regulation, the government will miss its own targets and under-invest in this much-needed social infrastructure.
<h2>No silver bullet – feasibility depends on subsidy</h2>
The bond aggregator by itself cannot create a development pipeline. It needs co-investment from government to make it feasible.
Community housing providers can only afford the amount of debt that modest rents and rent assistance can support. Modelling for a 2016 feasibility study found that about 45% of the cost of dwelling construction can be raised when operated as social rental housing, even with the lower rate and longer term of finance the aggregator can provide.
Thus deeply affordable social housing will always require public subsidies. This takes the form of grants, soft loans, or land allocated via public land corporations or planning requirements.
<h2>Policy orphan finally gets Treasury’s attention</h2>
Writing for The Conversation, Chris Martin and Hal Pawson summed up past performance:
It should be no surprise that Australia’s social housing has been largely static for 20 years. Everything we know about the system tells us it is not funded to even cover the costs of its ongoing operation, let alone growth to meet the needs of an expanding population. Aside from a one-off boost under the 2009 federal economic stimulus plan, social housing has been on a starvation ration for decades.
National governments in Austria, the UK, France and the US have made up for shortfalls in social housing funding with good regulation and by attracting private finance since the 1990s. They have done so by establishing a market for special-purpose bonds, government guarantees, special intermediaries, tax credits and supporting circuits of investment in affordable and social rental housing.
These measures often favour not-for-profit housing providers, but can also revitalise public housing agencies.
Meanwhile, Australian social housing policy turned inward. Governments frittered away their skeletal public housing stocks, narrowly targeted the rest and diverted much-needed capital to reduce operating deficits.
This ultimately bankrupted state housing agencies, which were all but given their marching orders by Morrison in April and earlier by his assistant minister, Michael Sukkar, in February. They ran into strong opposition from community and public housing providers (and the for-profit private sector) – which are eager to play a more active role in social housing supply.
Recently, though, Treasury’s “debt and deficit” doctrine has been making way for a new vision of productive public investment to boost both economic and social development. Investment in social housing should be an integral part of urban plans. It needs to be part and parcel of every infrastructure strategy, Smart City Plan, or City Deal. Bringing housing and infrastructure together under the new NHFIC could help, within an overarching plan with strategic housing targets.
Co-operative leadership and national funding remain essential. Morrison and Sukkar seem to appreciate that a coherent and efficient approach to setting standards and creating funding certainty will induce financial institutions to invest in social housing.
<h2>Wanted: dedication to social housing growth</h2>
Investment not only reduces public housing waiting lists most directly, it ensures fairer allocation of housing opportunities. At the same time it provides a shock-absorber for the economy, especially as it transitions from the resources boom, to build more productive and resilient cities.
Social housing creates jobs for the construction industry and uses local commodities, with many social and economic spin-offs.
Well-designed social housing, such as revitalised public and green community housing mixed with a range of housing types, provides a tangible infrastructure asset and a vital community service. It’s especially important for tenants who are elderly, have disabilities, or were formerly homeless.
Emergency services, health care and homelessness shelters, among others, bear the much higher costs of neglecting these households. This ultimately harms both the budget bottom line and our social fabric.
Morrison has directed the Affordable Housing Implementation Taskforce to report on the bond aggregator in July. The taskforce comprises three senior (former) public servants. They are advised, as usual, by one of the big four accounting firms.
It must be hoped their work contributes towards a broader vision for social housing growth. It should draw on international best practice as well as AHURI’s advice on an Affordable Housing Finance Corporation. Government policy needs to embrace the notion that social housing is not only good investment but essential social infrastructure.
Julie Lawson is a Honorary Associate Professor, RMIT University and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/julie-lawson-108364" target="_blank">here</a>.
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