Buyer Demand

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Housing demand is projected to fall over this year and next due to the dramatic impact of COVID-19 on net overseas migration.

This is projected to result in new housing supply temporarily exceeding new demand, according to the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation’s first major report on Australia’s housing market.

The report does add that any cumulative excess supply could be negligible if effective vaccines are available earlier and international borders re-open sooner than expected.

New housing supply could also be lower than projected if developers face greater difficulties in obtaining the level of pre-sales necessary to obtain project finance for new medium- to-high density developments.

The report follows much longer protracted periods of under-supply in the housing market.

"Notwithstanding a high degree of uncertainty around the path to economic recovery, we have also seen a great degree of resilience in the property sector," said Nathan Dal Bon, the chief executive officer of the government run, National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation.

"Due to historically low interest rates and government stimulus, construction activity and housing prices have held up better than many anticipated," he added.

"This highlights the challenges in the current forecasting environment and this should be considered when interpreting the projections in this report. 

"The current shock is unprecedented in modern times and with this comes a highly unpredictable outlook.

The report noted the impact will also be uneven across different segments of the housing market, particularly for apartments, and for different locations across Australia.
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Housing demand is projected to fall over this year and next due to the dramatic impact of COVID-19 on net overseas migration.

jchancellor

Housing demand projected to fall over 2021

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Australia abounds with locations where buyer activity is rising and there is strong potential for prices to rise, notwithstanding the general impression created by national media.
The latest edition of the Price Predictor Index by Hotspotting has identified good quantities of growth markets within our smaller capital cities and, in particular, within the many solid regional markets that exist, especially on the eastern side of the nation.
The very solid Adelaide market has large numbers of locations with rising demand, as does the recovering Perth market and the always-steady Canberra market.
Regional New South Wales, as I noted in an earlier column, has strong growth markets right across the state. In some, prices have already risen strongly in the past 6-12 months, while others have the potential for growth based on the current demand trends.
Regional Victoria has delivered the strongest price growth anywhere in Australia in the past year, in terms of locations where median prices have increased more than 20 percent. Other markets are now emerging, based on the sales trends, with the potential to deliver big growth.
Regional Tasmania has numerous growth markets, led by Launceston, and collectively has provided some of the nation’s strongest price growth recently, based on CoreLogic figures.
Regional Queensland is also sparking to life, led by double-digit growth in many of the suburbs of the Sunshine Coast and by recovering Central Queensland markets such as Mackay.
I regard The Price Predictor Index as an important report because it scrutinizes one of the key parts of the property price equation – demand - by charting the number of sales occurring in every suburb and town in Australia. 
The surveys are conducted every three months to identify patterns of demand – whether demand is rising in key markets, or whether demand is falling – or, as is the case in many locations, whether there’s a pattern of consistent and steady demand, quarter by quarter, over time.
The basic premise of this methodology is that prices respond to demand patterns – if demand is rising over time, prices will rise (all other things being equal). 
If demand is falling, price growth will slow down, and may eventually stop, and – in some instances – prices will fall.
The key factor here is that there’s a time lag. Prices don’t react instantaneously to changes in demand. It takes time for the changing demand patterns, whether up or down, to work through into property markets and create reactions in prices.
Demand in the Sydney was steadily falling away in 2016 but it wasn’t until 2017 that we saw the first clear signs of a slow-down in price growth, looking across all the data from multiple research sources.
And then in 2018, as the slow-down in demand continued, we saw prices falling in some parts of the Sydney market, although in most cases the decreases have been quite moderate.
Right now, prices are rising strongly in other Australian markets, including in Hobart; in the million-dollar suburbs of Canberra, Adelaide and Perth; and in numerous locations in regional Australia. In each case, these price rises were preceded by increases in sales volumes – in other words, increases in demand.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Demand in smaller capitals and solid regional markets will lead to property price growth: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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There's set to be a rise in buyer competition in Perth as listings become more and more scarce.
That's the view of Emma Everett, buyer's agent at WA-based property investment consultancy Momentum Wealth, who says the absorption of existing supply and higher sales transactions are triggering a return to a balanced market in some sectors.    
“Over the past 12 months, we have seen significant absorption of the oversupply left over from the mining and construction boom which, when combined with a rise in sales transactions, is causing stock on market to tighten, with the market now approaching equilibrium at just over 14,000 properties listed for sale,” Everett said.
Stock for sale in Perth nears 14,000 in December as sales activity has been trending higher in the second half of 2019. Back in March there were 17,251 properties for sale in Perth.
Sales in May were averaging around 479 a week compared to 650 a week in November.
Everett said some of the rise in activity is likely due to renewed certainty following the conclusion of the Federal Election.
“Activity was visibly subdued in the first half of 2019, with buyers likely taking a more cautious approach due to uncertainty surrounding potential changes to negative gearing and their impact on the property market.”
“The fact sales activity has trended higher in the latter half of 2019 suggests this certainty has now been somewhat restored”, she said.
Perth had the lowest new sales listings in November, according to CoreLogic. It was the lowest figure since CoreLogic began recording the statistic in 2007.
Everett attributes this to a more positive outlook amongst existing property owners in Perth.
“We are seeing an uplift in sentiment amongst many of the owners we are speaking to on the ground, with those who have previously considered selling due to softer market conditions now reluctant to do so having recognised the market is turning a corner.”
“These owners are prepared to hold onto their properties to achieve a better result, and with record low interest rates and improving rental conditions, they aren’t facing the same cash flow pressures they may have been a year ago,” she said. 
Everett stated that with the supply fundamentals in place, it’s now a case of demand.
“Average days on market in Perth is still relatively high at 84 days for the September quarter suggesting we aren’t yet seeing that sense of urgency we would expect to accompany an increase in demand from buyers.” 
“However, with much of the oversupply in a number of areas now absorbed and low levels of supply coming on stream from new construction, stock levels are poised to tighten even further into 2020 which will drive higher levels of buyer competition, in turn placing upwards pressure on prices in some locations,” she said.
CoreLogic figures released earlier this month showed that <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/buying/107487-perth-records-first-monthly-dwelling-price-increases-in-two-years-corelogic" target="_blank">Perth dwelling values recorded an annual increase of 0.4% in November</a>, marking the first month-on-month increase since early 2018. 
Everett said that suburbs with strong demand fundamentals in place are already seeing higher levels of competition from buyers.
“While market improvements are now starting to translate into headline growth figures, we have seen higher competition in certain segments of the market for some time, particularly in the upper price segment of the market where owner-occupiers have been taking advantage of softer conditions to trade-up into their suburb of choice, and we expect this to spread further into the market in 2020” she said.
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Tightening of stock driving listings down and priming Perth for rise in buyer competition

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GUEST OBSERVER
Fixed rate home loan demand fell significantly last month. 
According to the latest national home loan approval data from Mortgage Choice, fixed rate home loans accounted for just 14.41% of all loans written throughout the month of September – down from 17.41% the month prior. 
Demand for fixed rate home loans hasn’t been this low for more than four years. 
The last time fixed rate demand was this low was back in August 2011, when this type of home loan accounted for 13.78% of all home loans written. 
It seems borrowers are increasingly opting for variable rate home loans as they believe rates are unlikely to rise for some time yet. And, if the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s September Board meeting are anything to go by, the official cash rate could be left on hold for the foreseeable future.
In the September Board meeting, the Reserve Bank said inflation was forecast to remain consistent with the target over the next one to two years. 
If this proves to be the case, we could see rates left on hold for some time yet. 
Across the country, demand for fixed rate home loans was weakest in Victoria, where this type of product accounted for just 8.61% of all loans written. 
Western Australia was not far behind, with fixed rate home loans accounting for 12.35% of all loans written. At the other end of the spectrum, fixed rate demand was strongest in New South Wales, with this type of product accounting for 16.65% of all loans written.
Of the variable rate loans on offer, ongoing discount products once again proved the most popular with borrowers, with this type of product making up 50.51% of all loans written in September. 
While the property market is showing signs of volatility at the moment, one thing is constant – low rates. 
While rates are low and there is little talk of future rate hikes, borrowers will continue to opt for variable rate products.
<a href="/images/2015/10/02/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-02%20at%208.08.27%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/02/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-02%20at%208.08.27%20AM.png" alt="">
 
John Flavell is chief executive officer <a href="https://www.mortgagechoice.com.au/" target="_blank">Mortgage Choice</a>.
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mick.cee-iDmgDDAmu8

Fixed rate demand hits four year low: Mortgage Choice's John Flavell

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Spring is expected to bring an increase in listing numbers but whether buyer demand keeps pace with the additional level of homes for sale is another question, according to CoreLogic RP Data's head of research Tim Lawless.
The CoreLogic RP Data Hedonic Home Value Index for August found new listing numbers are 5.5% higher across capital cities when compared with the same time last year. There was a 16% lift in fresh listings for Sydney and a 10% lift in Melbourne.
Mr Lawless said this is indicative that the spring listing trend is already accelerating as vendors look to take advantage of the strong selling conditions. 
"The Spring season will provide a timely litmus test for the housing market given it’s a time when listing numbers normally increase materially," he said.
"It will be important to monitor whether buyer demand keeps pace with the additional number of homes being advertised for sale."
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Spring listings increase needs buyer demand: CoreLogic RP Data's Tim Lawless

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Melbourne buyers advocate Richard Wakelin has noted winter buyer demand has been remarkably strong, with auction clearance rates at a generational high.
"There’s every reason a vendor can expect to achieve a strong price and do so in a relatively short time frame," he said.
But he warns vendors can still get it wrong in these circumstances.
"Through their own sins they will collect fewer dollars for their property and more heartache and grey hairs than is necessary," he wrote.
He had greed atop his seven seller’s sins list. 
"This is the vendor who wants too much for their property, regardless of market conditions.
"They can’t recognise when they have secured a great deal and are always wanting another 5 to 10% more than they are going to get.  
"Invariably, negotiations break down and they eventually agree to a similar (or worse) offer several weeks or even months later."
Sloth or procrastination when key, time-sensitive decisions needed to be made.
"It’s also being too lazy to present the property as well as possible when it is open for inspection."
An overly-proud vendor is one who treasures their privacy more than obtaining an optimal sales outcome, was a factor too in under achieving.
"They want to dictate unreasonable terms such as only allowing a property to be open for inspection when it suits them, trying to exclude sticky-beak neighbours from attending opens, and selecting a sub-optimal method of sale because it doesn’t suit their lifestyle."
As well as the classic sins, he listed more modern ones too including wilful ignorance. 
"Whilst one should trust one’s advisers, it is incumbent on a vendor to have a reasonable grasp of the specific property market they are planning to engage with. 
"Without this knowledge one can’t establish a healthy partnership with the advising estate agent."
Richard Wakelin is presenting a <a href="https://wakelin.com.au/webinar/?src=wit" target="_blank">webinar August 12</a> on how to optimise your sale campaign towards the aim of maximising the sale price and minimising the stress and worry.
Around 30 minutes will be devoted to the presentation then answer questions.
 
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