Busting

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Australian capital city home prices have fallen for 12 months in a row and are down 4% from their peak.</p>
<p>Most of the weakness relates to the previous boom time cities of Sydney and Melbourne but prices are continuing to fall in Perth and Darwin.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/10/18/OLIVER%20G1.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p>This begs the questions: how far will prices drop? and what will it mean for the broader economy?</p>
<p><strong> High prices and high debt – how did it come to this? </strong></p>
<p>Real house prices started to surge in the mid-1990s. This has led to them being expensive relative to income, rents, their long-term trend and by global standards. On our valuation measures prices are around 30% overvalued. The boom since the mid-1990s has rolled through different cities at different times, eg, starting in Sydney &amp; Melbourne, then Perth, then Sydney &amp; Melbourne again more recently. </p>
<p>As a result, affordability is poor and while interest rates may be low it’s become hard to save for a sufficient deposit.</p>
<p>The surge in home prices has gone hand in hand with a surge in household debt. See the next chart. This has taken the household debt to income ratio from the low end of OECD countries to the top end. The shift to overvaluation and high debt mostly occurred over the 1995-2005 period.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/10/18/OLIVER%20G2.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p>It’s popular to blame negative gearing, the capital gains tax discount and foreign buying for high home prices and debt. However, the basic drivers are a combination of the shift from high to low interest rates over the last 20-30 years boosting borrowing power, along with a surge in population growth from mid-last decade and the inadequacy of a supply response (thanks to tight development controls and lagging infrastructure) to suppress the resultant rise in the ratio of prices to incomes.</p>
<p>Since 2006, annual population growth has averaged about 150,000 above what it was over the decade to the mid-2000s, which required roughly an extra 50,000 new homes per year, but dwelling completions have only recently caught up.</p>
<p><strong>The tide has turned – expect more price falls</strong></p>
<p>However, starting about a year ago it seems the tide has turned against property prices reflecting a range of factors.</p>
<p>Poor affordability - which has reduced the pool of buyers. </p>
<p>A tightening in bank lending standards under pressure from regulators - particularly around tougher income and expense verification and total debt to income limits for borrowers. The latter will particularly impact cities like Sydney and Melbourne which have high price to income ratios necessitating high debt to income ratios. It will also impact property investors with multiple properties (with around 1.5 million properties held by investors with multiple properties) with banks cracking down on lending to such investors. This is all making it harder to get housing loans. </p>
<p>A significant pool of interest only borrowers are scheduled to switch to principal and interest over the next few years resulting in a sharp rise in total debt servicing costs. </p>
<p>Banks withdrawing from lending to Self-Managed Super Funds – reducing the pool of property investors. </p>
<p>A cutback in foreign demand, partly due to Australian authorities making it more difficult. Chinese investment into Australian real estate has fallen by roughly 70% since 2015.</p>
<p>Rising unit supply – as the ongoing surge in unit construction completes and hits the market with Sydney and Melbourne most at risk. This risk is highlighted by Australia’s residential crane count of 528 cranes being way above the total crane count (ie residential and non-residential) in the US of 300 and Canada of 123! </p>
<p>Out of cycle bank mortgage rate increases may also be playing a role – although a minor one as the moves have been small, mortgage rates remain near record lows and some banks have cut rates for new borrowers. • Falling price growth expectations in response to falling prices risks resulting in a negative feedback loop for prices – as the FOMO (fear of missing out) phenomenon of up until a year ago risks turning into FONGO (fear of not getting out), particularly for investors as they realise they are only getting very low returns from net rental yields of around 1-2%.</p>
<p>Expectations that negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions will be made less favourable if there is a change of government are likely also impacting and have the potential to become a major drag on prices. On their own some of these are not significant, but together they risk creating a perfect storm for the property market.</p>
<p><strong>Home price outlook</strong></p>
<p>For some time, we have been expecting top to bottom falls in Sydney and Melbourne prices of 15% spread out to 2020, implying price declines around 5% per annum. However, the risks are starting to skew to the downside – particularly around tighter credit and falling capital growth expectations made worse by fears of a change in tax arrangements.</p>
<p>Auction clearances in recent weeks have been running around levels roughly consistent with 7-8% pa price declines.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/10/18/OLIVER%20G3.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p>As such we are now allowing for a 20% decline in prices in these cities, again spread out to 2020, which would take average prices back to first half 2015 levels.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/10/18/OLIVER%20G4.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p>By contrast home prices in Perth and Darwin are either at or close to the bottom having fallen back to levels seen more than a decade ago, and prices are likely to perform a lot better in Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra and Hobart along with regional centres as they have not seen anything like the boom in Sydney and Melbourne. But they will see some impact from tighter credit.</p>
<p>Overall, we now expect national average prices to fall nearly 10% out to 2020 which is a downgrade from our previous expectation for a 5% national average fall.</p>
<p><strong> A crash is a risk but remains unlikely</strong></p>
<p>With prices now falling naturally the calls for a property crash are getting a lot of airing. But these have been wheeled out endlessly over the last 15 years or so. Our assessment remains that a crash (say a 20% or more fall in national average prices) is unlikely unless we see much higher interest rates or unemployment (neither of which are expected) or a continuation of recent high construction for several years (which is unlikely as approvals are falling) and a collapse in immigration.</p>
<p>Strong population growth is continuing to drive strong underlying demand for housing. While mortgage stress is a risk, it tends to be overstated: there has been a sharp reduction in interest only loans already; debt servicing payments as a share of income have actually fallen slightly over the last decade; a significant number of households are ahead on their repayments; and banks’ non-performing loans remain low.</p>
<p>Finally, while Sydney and Melbourne are at risk other cities have not seen the same boom and so are less vulnerable. However, the risk of a crash cannot be ignored given the danger that banks may overreact and become too tight and that investors decide to exit in the face of falling returns, low yields and possible changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax.</p>
<p><strong> The property cycle and the economy</strong></p>
<p>The downturn in the housing cycle will affect the broader economy via slowing dwelling construction, negative wealth effects on consumer spending, less demand for household goods and via the banks as credit growth slows and if mortgage defaults rise.</p>
<p>This will provide an offset to strong growth in infrastructure spending and solid growth in business investment and will constrain economic growth to around 2.5-3% which in turn will keep wages growth and inflation low.</p>
<p>All of which is consistent with our view that the RBA won’t be raising rates until 2020 at the earliest and given the downside risks related to house prices it may have to cut rates. Housing weakness will also continue to constrain bank share returns.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/10/18/OLIVER%20G5.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p><strong>Implications for investors</strong></p>
<p>Over the very long-term, residential property adjusted for costs has similar returns to Australian shares. So, there is a role for it in investors’ portfolios. However, now remains a time for caution regarding housing as an investment destination – particularly in Sydney and Melbourne where it remains expensive, prices are likely to fall further &amp; it offers very low rental yields. Best to look at other cities and regional areas that offer much better value.</p>
<p>Dr Shane Oliver                                                                              Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital</p>
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Boom turns to bust - some home prices now set to fall up to 20 percent: Shane Oliver

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<div style="text-align: left;" align="center">As Australian businesses enter the new financial year, industry analyst IBISWorld has revealed which industries they believe are set to have s strong performance in 2018-19, and which are likely to struggle.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">“The standout performer is expected to be Intellectual Property Leasing, with expected revenue growth of 68.2%. Other strong performers include Internet Publishing and Broadcasting, Retail Property Operators, Pig Farming, and Child Care Services,” said Jason Aravanis, IBISWorld Senior Industry Analyst.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">“Industries expected to decline over the next 12 months, reflecting the changing landscape of the Australian economy, includeMulti-Unit Apartment and Townhouse Construction, Building Societies, Video Game, DVD and Recorded Music Retailing, House Construction, and Iron Ore Mining. These contractions are in response to changing commodity prices, consumer behaviour, and investor sentiment,” said Mr Aravanis.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;" align="center">Industries set to fly in 2018-19</div>
<div style="text-align: left;" align="center"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;" align="center">
<table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td width="292">
<div align="center">Industry</div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center">Revenue 2017-18 ($m)</div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center">Revenue 2018-19 ($m)</div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center">Revenue growth 2018-19</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="292">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">Intellectual Property Leasing</span></div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">2,826</span></div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">4,752</span></div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">68.2%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="292">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">Internet Publishing and Broadcasting</span></div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">2,486</span></div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">2,896</span></div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">16.5%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="292">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">Retail Property Operators</span></div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">22,830</span></div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">26,590</span></div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">16.5%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="292">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">Pig Farming</span></div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">1,110</span></div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">1,262</span></div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">13.7%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="292">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">Child Care Services</span></div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">12,205</span></div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">13,075</span></div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">7.2%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">Retail Property Operators in Australia</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">Revenue for the Retail Property Operators industry is expected to increase by 16.5% in 2018-19, to $26.6 billion. Demand from retail trade is anticipated to grow in 2018-19, fuelling demand for industry services. Growing demand from overseas investors has also contributed to the industry’s revenue expansion over the past five years. Demand from overseas investors has largely been due to improved vacancy rates over the period, and growth in Australian property prices, both commercial and residential.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">Despite the industry’s strong growth, operators have continued to face pressures caused by fluctuating consumer sentiment, which can affect retail sales and business confidence. While improvements to underlying retail drivers may prompt more spending, an increasing proportion of consumers choosing to shop online may somewhat mitigate the positive effects of these drivers on the industry.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">Pig Farming</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">The Pig Farming industry is expected to grow by 13.7% in 2018-19. Rising health consciousness and continued marketing efforts by Australian Pork Limited (APL) are likely to continue driving consumer demand towards fresh pork. As a result, pig meat consumption is expected to continue growing in 2018-19, as consumers increasingly view fresh pork as a healthy source of protein.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">With weight and wellness concerning more Australians each year, consumers are being turned away from traditional red meats like lamb and beef towards leaner sources of protein like fresh pork. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) expects beef, veal and lamb consumption to fall in 2018-19.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">Operators in the Pig Farming industry are anticipated to increase production in 2018-19 to take advantage of this rising demand, while growing demand for premium fresh pork products is likely to boost the domestic price of pig meat. IBISWorld also expects that pig meat exports will grow while import volumes will decline in 2018-19, providing a further boost to Australian domestic pig farmers.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">Child Care Services</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">The Child Care Services industry has benefited over the past five years from rising maternal workforce participation rates and increasing enrolment rates. Both of these factors have been encouraged by increased government assistance packages designed to encourage woman to return to the workforce following the birth of their children.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">The industry’s operating conditions are set to change again in 2018-19, with the introduction of the new single Child Care Subsidy (CCS) on 2 July 2018. In contrast to the previous child care assistance package, this new subsidy is to be paid directly to child care operators. The Federal Government is expected to pay out $8 billion in CCS payments in the first year of the policy. This is expected to contribute to the industry’s anticipated growth of 7.2% in 2018-19, to $13.1 billion.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;" align="center">Industries set to fall in 2018-19</div>
<div style="text-align: left;" align="center"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;" align="center">
<table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td width="292">
<div align="center">Industry</div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center">Revenue 2017-18 ($m)</div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center">Revenue 2018-19 ($m)</div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center">Revenue growth 2018-19</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="292">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">Multi-Unit Apartment &amp; Townhouse Construction</span></div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">25,617</span></div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">21,173</span></div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">-17.3%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="292">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">Building Societies</span></div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">509</span></div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">436</span></div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">-14.4%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="292">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">Video Game, DVD &amp; Recorded Music Retailing</span></div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">1,006</span></div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">927</span></div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">-7.9%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="292">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">House Construction</span></div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">44,683</span></div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center">41,823</div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">-6.4%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="292">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">Iron Ore Mining</span></div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">62,994</span></div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">59,494</span></div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">-5.6%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">Multi-Unit Apartment and Townhouse Construction</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">The Multi-Unit Apartment and Townhouse Construction industry is expected to face deteriorating demand in 2018-19, as investors respond to the build-up of unsold stock by deferring projects. The recent completion of major apartment developments has contributed to excess supply in several capital cities, notably Melbourne and Brisbane, which is likely to dampen investment until vacancy rates gradually ease.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">The scaling back of investment is also expected to coincide with weaker investment from Asia in the local real estate market, which is due to the tightening of mortgage lending practices to foreign residents by the local banks, and the imposition of additional land taxes on foreign investors. Although work done on multi-unit apartments and townhouses is expected to decline, the industry is declining from historically high levels and many of the construction contractors will look to ride out the cyclical contraction. Industry revenue is expected to contract by 17.3% in 2018-19, to $21.2 billion.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">Building Societies</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">The Building Societies industry has declined significantly over the past five years on the back of prominent exits and a falling cash rate. Intense competition from national banks, and low-interest rates, have placed significant pressure on the industry. Interest revenue generated by building societies on their loan books has fallen on the back of the lower cash rate, despite greater demand for mortgages.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">The lack of access to further capital has been a key factor that has led to the conversion of several former operators to banks. In 2012-13, nine building societies were registered in Australia. Only three building societies remain in the current year, with the most recent exit being B&amp;E Ltd’s conversion to a bank in October 2017. As a result, revenue from building societies is expected to decrease by 14.4% in 2018-19, to $436.3 million.                      </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">                       </div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">Video Game, DVD and Recorded Music Retailing</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">The Video Game, DVD and Recorded Music Retailing industry is expected to decline by 7.9% in 2018-19. Changing media formats and the increasing popularity of online shopping are making trading difficult for retailers of products that can be accessed online. Intensifying competition from digital media formats and online-only retailers has significantly contributed to industry revenue declining over the past five years.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">The industry’s largest product segment is video games. Although the uptake of video games has been strong over the past decade, the increasing sophistication of online-only stores and the advent of faster and cheaper internet connections have caused a significant portion of video game sales to occur online through platforms such as Steam. A similar trend is occurring for films, television shows and recorded music, with online streaming through providers like Netflix and Spotify becoming the dominant mode of content delivery. These trends are cementing the industry’s decline.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">House Construction</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">The House Construction industry’s revenue is expected to trend downward in 2018-19, corresponding with the anticipated rise in mortgage interest rates and some deterioration in mortgage affordability. The magnitude of the cyclical correction in demand from the House Construction industry is expected to be much smaller than the slump in the aligned Multi-Unit Apartment and Townhouse Construction industry, which is exposed to substantial unsold stock levels and the exit of foreign investment.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">The decline in new housing investment is likely to be most evident in the first-home buyers category, as the recent increases in housing prices and the rise in mortgage repayments are likely to prevent more households from becoming home owners. The House Construction industry is anticipated to decline, although continued solid population growth is expected to ensure solid underlying demand for new housing. Overall, industry revenue is forecast to decline by 6.4% in 2018-19, to $41.8 billion.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">Iron Ore Mining</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">Although revenue generated by the Iron Ore Mining industry is expected to decline 5.6% in 2018-19, this decline is from a relatively high level, and is across an industry that has expanded output dramatically over the past decade.  A lower average world iron ore price in 2018-19 is expected to be the main contributor to the industry’s revenue fall. As domestic and global iron ore production volumes continue to increase, iron ore prices are expected to weaken due to oversupply.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">The industry relies heavily on Chinese demand, with China anticipated to account for more than 80% of Australia’s iron ore exports in 2018-19. Slower GDP growth in China will likely hinder demand for steel, and hence iron ore. Furthermore, a stronger Australian dollar against the US dollar will reduce the competitiveness of Australia’s iron ore exports. However, as local iron ore quality is very high, and as per-unit iron ore mining costs in Australia are very low globally, the industry will remain competitive in 2018-19 and over the next five years.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
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