Business Sentiment

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GUEST OBSERVER
A contradiction is emerging between how consumers should be feeling and what the heads of companies expect them to do.
What we know about low wages growth and underemployment seems to suggest households would be tightening the purse strings but the sentiment of business leaders is very positive in sectors relying on consumer spending.
Wages are struggling to keep pace with the prices of the things we buy and average hours worked (per worker) have also been trending down or flat at best. This is not a picture of robust consumer finances.
On top of this retailers are facing the threat of competition from US giant Amazon. Yet according to our analysis of the outlook of leaders of Australia’s ASX 200 companies, positivity has increased.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%208.36.49%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%208.36.49%20AM.png" alt=""> 
The sentiment of business leaders has remained positive and improved over the past 12 months according to our analysis. The “polarity” score, which measures whether the sentiment is positive or negative, has increased from 0.11 to 0.15 (a statistically significant improvement).
We also looked at how subjective these statements were and found there’s been no significant increase in how opinionated these statements are.
Our findings also mirror other business confidence surveys and even the Reserve Bank of Australia’s own outlook, which also paints a buoyant picture. The RBA expects growth in the economy to strengthen gradually to be around 3% in the first half of 2018. The RBA expects wage growth to gradually pick up over the next year or two and for average hours worked to increase somewhat.
Similarly, the Westpac-AusChamber Actual Composite index strengthened in June 2017, rising 1.8 points to 65.0. This factored in a strengthening in the labour market, as manufacturing firms plan to hire more workers and manufacturing wages rise. And the NAB business confidence survey also reveals that business conditions and confidence are improving.
The positive outlook for economic growth according to the RBA is driven by resource exports notably iron ore and liquid natural gas (LNG) production, household consumption including retail sales, and non-mining business investment. The RBA also expects wage growth to soon pick up.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%208.37.59%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%208.37.59%20AM.png" alt=""> 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%208.39.08%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%208.39.08%20AM.png" alt=""> 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%208.40.00%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%208.40.00%20AM.png" alt="">
These drivers are reflected in our sentiment analysis. Business leaders in ASX categories relying on household spending, have stronger than average positive outlook on the future, with an average score of 0.18.
This was led by businesses like JB HiFi (0.41), TabCorp (0.23) and Flight Centre (0.18); and also consumer staples led by Ardent Leisure (0.50), Treasury Wine Estates (0.38) and Coca-Cola Amatil (0.18).
The outlook for manufacturing is also positive due to a range of factors such as infrastructure spending by governments, stronger world growth, and improved international competitiveness due to a lower currency, commercial construction and home building, according to the Westpac-AusChamber index. This is supported by our analysis which found stronger than average sentiment from business leaders in the materials sector (0.17), through companies such as Amcor (0.26).
But the outlook isn’t all positive among our business leaders. Sentiment was weaker than average in utilities (0.07) led by AGL (-0.03). This is hardly surprising given the high uncertainty around energy policy – AGL for example owns coal-fired power plants. Also sentiment was somewhat weaker (0.13) than average among industrial company leaders, the sentiment in Qantas’ outlook was negative (-0.03) and property/real estate company Lend Lease (0.09) was also weak.
Perhaps the gloomy slow wage growth and underemployment will catch up to the more positive sentiment on consumer goods and services in company reports. Or this contradiction might simply reflect the high uncertainty in the global environment.
Consumers certainly seem a little confused: the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer confidence Index ticked up slightly last week but has jumped around in recent months. Certainly the positive sentiment from business leaders about consumer spending we see in company reports seems optimistic.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ross-guest-13155" target="_blank">Ross Guest </a>is Professor of Economics and National Senior Teaching Fellow, Griffith University.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ben-hachey-337155" target="_blank">Ben Hachey is</a> Honorary Associate, School of Information Technologies, University of Sydney.
Both are authors for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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Business leaders are betting we will spend more

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Business conditions fell 2 pts to +2 index points in July, driven by a decline in the employment sub-index. Trading conditions also edged lower, while reported profitability increased slightly in the month. All three sub-indexes are now again below average, with the decline in business conditions evident across most industries outside of mining over the past year.
Business confidence edged higher in the month to +4 index points, but remains below average. The lift in confidence was broad-based across industries in the month. Overall, in trend terms, business confidence remains highest in mining, as it has for some time. Outside of mining, finance, business &amp; property services remain most optimistic, while confidence is softest in manufacturing and recreation &amp; personal services.
Business conditions declined slightly in the month. As we have noted in previous months, the decline in business conditions since early 2018 has been broad-based and has continued to track at below average levels in recent months. This is concerning, because while conditions remain positive, it points to a significant loss in momentum in the business sector.
Business confidence ticked-up in the month, following an easing last month, but is also below average. While there were some positive signs with a post-election lift in confidence, this bounce now looks to have been short lived with confidence also tracking at below average levels in the two months since the election.
Business confidence in the retail sector saw a reasonable lift, likely related to the government’s tax cuts, but quite worryingly there appears to have been little boost to activity in the sector with conditions weakening further – the sector is currently facing recessionary levels of activity according to our measure.
Forward-looking indicators remain weak. Forward orders edged higher in the month but remain negative and well below average while capacity utilisation unwound its sharp spike last month and is now again just below average.
Looking at the components of the survey that provide an indication of conditions going forward, we see little improvement. With both forward orders weak, and capacity utilisation a bit below average – both capex and employment growth are at risk
With a significant loss of momentum in activity, and inflation indicators remaining weak, the survey points to the need to the need for further stimulus in the economy. Indeed, we expect a further easing in interest rates from the RBA and think that some greater fiscal support will be needed from the government to kickstart growth.
ALAN OSTER is the NAB Group Chief Economist 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Business confidence and conditions are below average: NAB's Alan Oster

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EXPERT OBSERVER
In Australia we saw the release of consumer and business surveys for August/September. Offshore, the ECB’s well telegraphed announcement of new stimulus largely met expectations.
As we saw in last week’s June quarter GDP report, the Australian economy is navigating a period of cyclical weakness. The question going forward is to what extent recent RBA rate cuts and tax offset receipts support the economy in the second half of 2019 and into 2020. Disappointingly, the private sector surveys released this week are yet to show any response.
Starting with the NAB Business Survey, not only was there an absence of a bounce, both conditions and confidence slipped further in August and remain at below average levels. Conditions declined 2pts to +1 – the softest result since 2014 – and confidence was down 3pts to +1. While employment conditions rose 2pts to +2 in the month, the trend is clearly moving lower. That stands in contrast to ABS employment growth figures which have held robust to July – the August update to be released next week.
Dour business sentiment was also echoed in the Q3 release of our Australian Chamber-Westpac survey of industrial trends. The Westpac–AusChamber Actual Composite index fell sharply to 52.9 in September from 61.5 in June, continuing the weakening trend seen since mid-2018.
Similarly for the household sector, our Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment survey lapsed back into slight negative territory again, down to 98.2 in September from 100 in August. The survey contained additional questions on the new tax offset payments received from July 1 for the 2018/19 financial year. Just over 16% of consumers reported receiving a payment. Amongst that cohort, 29% planned to spend it all, and a further 16% planned to spend over half. The remainder (53%) planned to spend less than half including around 25% who planned to save the full payment. Yet, perhaps the most telling indicator of the impact of the new stimulus (or lack thereof) is our regular ‘finances vs a year ago’ sub-index which declined 2.5% to a well below average 84.3.
The sombre consumer mood stands in contrast to further affirmation that the residential property market is stabilising. This week’s release of July housing finance approvals showed the total value of finance up 5.1%. That is broadly consistent with the improvement in auction activity and prices seen through June to August.
It therefore appears that concerns about the state of the domestic economy, broader international conditions and employment are having a more dominant effect on the consumer mindset. New stimulus measures may need more time to have an effect, but at this stage, overall data are still painting a soft economic backdrop.
As such, we continue to believe the RBA is set to deliver 25bp cuts in October and February. Our RBA forecast is explained in our September Market Outlook released this week which covers our broader view on Australian and global economies, FX, rates and commodities.
Of note in this month’s edition is an update to our US forecast. As announced last Friday, we now expect in addition to our previous forecast of FOMC cuts in September, October and December, a further two cuts in March and June, taking the federal funds rate to 0.875%.
In that respect, Thursday’s ECB meeting offered an interesting prelude to next week’s FOMC meeting.
The ECB cut the deposit rate 10bps to -0.5%, moved to a tiered reserve system (for each bank, a multiple of six times minimum reserves will be exempt from the deposit rate charge and instead receive a juicy 0.0%), restarted asset purchases (€20bn per month pace and will persist for as long as necessary), repriced TLTRO's (cheap bank loans incentive rate 10bps cheaper at -0.5%), and strengthened forward guidance.
All up, the stimulus package broadly came in line with our own expectation. We did not anticipate the repricing of TLTRO-III but had expected a larger €40bn per month asset purchase program. We continue to believe the program will be lifted to that pace in 2020 and the deposit rate will be reduced to a low of -0.7%.
As we had seen going into the meeting, not all ECB members agree with the new stimulus, with some of the opinion that economic conditions were not weak enough to warrant restarting asset purchases. Draghi’s time as ECB president has faced significant criticism from within the ECB, and more recently, ire from US President Trump (who once again reiterated his belief that the ECB are targeting the exchange rate). But at his last meeting, Draghi did get a unanimous agreement that fiscal policy should be the main instrument going forward.
Finally, to finish on a more upbeat note, we did at least see some tentative positive developments this week in regards to the US-China trade war and, to some extent, Brexit.
The trade situation calmed down a notch after China released a list of goods that will be exempted from the retaliatory tariff on US imports. In return, the US offered a good will gesture by delaying the scheduled 25% to 30% tariff increase on $250bn of imports by two weeks to October 15.
With Brexit, we saw the Benn bill become law. This will effectively force PM Johnson to request a three month extension to the exit deadline unless a deal is found before October 19. Following that, the Government made a second attempt to call a general election, but once again, failed. Parliament is now suspended to October 14.
ELLIOT CLARKE is a senior economist at Westpac.
SIMON MURRAY is an economist at Westpac
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