Business Investment

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER<span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p>The latest business investment report was certainly a mixed bag.</p>
<p>A sizeable drop in actual quarterly investment and expectations of future investment for 2016/17 and 2017/18 were weaker than a year ago. However the focus should be on the breakdown of investment, which was largely due to an ongoing slide in mining investment. In fact investment in the non-mining space rose by 1.9 percent in the December quarter. The improvement in commodity prices may help to soften the weakness in mining activity.</p>
<p>In addition investment rose in five of the eight states and territories, with the weakness more dominated in Queensland and Western Australia. In contrast the Northern Territory, ACT, and Tasmania recorded a double digit lift December quarter investment.</p>
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<p>More importantly the near term shift in expected investment plans was also encouraging. The fifth estimate for investment in 2016/17 came in at $112.6 billion, up 4.6 percent on the fourth estimate and up almost 22 percent in the past nine months.</p>
<p>Encouragingly the lift in investment plans over the last couple of quarters, suggests that a shift in momentum is taking place. Certainly the lift in business conditions in recent months may be supportive of a lift in investment plans – especially in light of the surge in commodity prices and improvement in the global economy. No doubt the rebalancing across the economy is also being supported by the weaker Australian dollar – an outcome that should garner further traction in coming quarters. But as we have seen in the past, business may plan for future investment but then mothball projects if the economic landscape doesn’t improve.</p>
<p>Business spending looks like continuing to be a weight on Australia’s economic growth performance in the medium term. The Reserve Bank could cut rates again, but it is far from certain that this would have a measurable impact in further lifting business spending. The Reserve Bank is more forward-looking and is likely to maintain its neutral bias on a more upbeat medium term growth outlook.<span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p>As highlighted yesterday by the wage price index, wage growth at present is modest. Wages are still growing, and out-pacing inflation. The “average worker” has an extra $1,711 in the pocket compared with a year ago, equating to almost an extra $33 week. Real wage growth exists, while higher home prices, subdued petrol prices and lower borrowing costs are also supporting spending power.</p>
<p>While modest real wage growth causes consumers to price-check more often, the modest growth in earnings restrains the wage bill of employers, leaving them inclined to maintain or boost employment – as indeed has been happening. Modest wage growth is one reason why the unemployment rate in at 26-month lows in trend terms.</p>
<p>Overall policymakers will keep a close eye on how business investment evolves over the coming year. The forward looking indicators suggest activity levels are lifting and we believe that interest rates are likely to remain unchanged.</p>
<p>What do the figures show?</p>
<p>Private business investment<span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p>Overall: Business investment (spending on buildings and equipment) fell by 2.1 per cent in the December quarter after falling by 3.3 per cent in the September quarter. Spending on buildings fell by 4.1 per cent in the quarter while spending on equipment rose by 0.4 per cent. Investment is down 15.5 per cent over the year with buildings down by 25.5 per cent while equipment was up by 1.5 per cent.</p>
<p>Sectors: Mining investment fell by 9.3 per cent in the December quarter (tenth straight decline), while manufacturing spending rose by 3.2 per cent, spending by “other selected industries” rose by 1.8 per cent.</p>
<p>States: In seasonally adjusted terms investment fell in five of the eight states and territories in the December quarter. Investment rose the most in the Northern Territory (up 16.1 per cent), followed by the ACT (up 11.1 per cent), Tasmania (up 10.8 per cent), NSW (up 2.3 per cent), Victoria (up 2.0 per cent). Investment fell the most in Queensland (down 6.1 per cent) followed by Western Australia (down 3.7 per cent), and South Australia (down 2.9 per cent).</p>
<p>Prices: The overall deflator for investment goods rose by 0.3 per cent in the December quarter after falling by 0.2 per cent in the September. The cost of buildings and structures rose by 1.1 per cent while the cost of equipment fell by 0.7 per cent. Over the year, the cost of investment goods fell by 0.7 per cent – the largest fall in just shy of 5 years. The cost of buildings rose by 1.1 per cent while the cost of investment equipment fell by 3.4 per cent.</p>
<p>Forecasts: The fifth estimate for investment in 2016/17 is $112.55 billion, down 9 per cent on the fifth estimate for investment made for the previous (2015/16) financial year. However the investment expectation is up 4.6 percent on the fourth estimate made for the current 2016/17 financial year.</p>
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<p>The first estimate of investment in 2017/18 is $80.625 billion and is 3.9 per cent lower than the first estimate for 2016/17 – the smallest decline for a first estimate reading in five years.</p>
<p>Average Weekly Earnings:</p>
<p>Average weekly ordinary time earnings rose by 1.1 per cent in the six months to November 2016 to be 2.2 per cent higher than a year ago. Male wages rose by 1.8 per cent over the year while female wages rose by 3.2 per cent. </p>
<p>Average weekly total earnings rose by 2.2 per cent over the year.</p>
<p>The average wage in November 2016 was $79,737.</p>
<p>Wages rose most over the year in Arts and Recreation services (up 5.8 per cent), Information, Media and Telecommunications (up 5 per cent), and Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste services (up 5.4 per cent).</p>
<p>Wages were weakest over the past year in Manufacturing (down 1.5 per cent), Retail trade (up 0.6 per cent), Public Administration &amp; Safety (up 1.5 per cent) and Finance &amp; Insurance (up 1.7 per cent).</p>
<p>Across states &amp; territories, we have calculated average annual wages as follows: NSW $79,862, Victoria $78,005, Queensland $77,069, South Australia $75,192, Western Australia $88,566, Tasmania $69,945, Northern Territory $85,202 and ACT $90,844.</p>
<p>The highest average wage can still be found in the Mining sector at $133,765 per year. Next highest is Finance &amp; insurance services ($95,706) followed by Information media &amp; telecommunications ($95,082), and Professional, scientific &amp; technical services ($92,851).</p>
<p>The lowest average wage is obtained by workers in the Accommodation and food services sector ($57,632), followed by Retail trade ($58,963), “Other services” ($63,554) and Administrative and Support Services ($67,844).</p>
<p>What is the importance of the economic data?</p>
<p>“Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure” is released quarterly by the Bureau of Statistics. The figures show both actual and expected spending by businesses on tangible assets such as new buildings, machinery and office equipment. The figures are obtained after sampling 8,000 private business units.</p>
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<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/24/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-24%20at%208.17.24%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The ABS publishes the Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) series on a six-monthly basis. While the Wage Cost Index allows analysis of wage movements from quarter-to-quarter, the AWE series is best seen as a measure of actual dollar figures for wages. But average weekly earnings figures can be distorted by changes such as the relative growth of high-paid to low-paid jobs and the cashing out of bonuses in ordinary earnings.</p>
<p>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</p>
<p>The great unwinding of mining investment continues although the lift in commodity prices may result in more of a soft landing in coming quarters.</p>
<p>The latest data confirms that wages are only growing modestly. In broad terms, wages are modestly ahead of prices, with the simple conclusion that inflationary pressures are contained. The Reserve Bank should be in no rush to move interest rates in any direction. </p>
<p>Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Subdued business investment: Savanth Sebastian

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<p>One of Australia’s largest integrated beef and cropping businesses, spanning nearly 26,000ha is being offered to the market for sale.</p>
<p>CBRE Agribusiness has been appointed to sell the northern NSW aggregation, comprising a large scale integrated business producing more than 100,000 MSA graded cattle and 40,000 tonnes of grain on a yearly cycle.</p>
<p>Located in NSW’s north-west, the business recently received certification and trade mark for its unique cattle finishing model, ‘Certified Free Range Grain &amp; Grass Fed’, which has underpinned its award-winning beef brands.</p>
<p>CBRE’s Richard Royle and Col Medway are seeking a buyer via an expressions of interest campaign closing October 31.</p>
<p>Mr Royle said the opportunity to secure a successful enterprise with both scale and diversity had already generated significant investment interest.</p>
<p>“To date, inspections have been conducted by a wide variety of buyers, including Australian and international corporates, Australian family offices, private capital advisors, private equity managers, cropping businesses and beef industry participants,” Mr Royle said.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/10/3/Agri%202.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The aggregation has a current cattle capacity of 30,000 head of cattle, with an annual turnoff capacity in excess of 140,000 and further expansion capabilities. The cattle are accommodated in the licensed 7,000 SCU feedlot</p>
<p>(DA approval for an expansion to 20,000 SCU) with the remainder in paddocks under the grain and grass fed system.</p>
<p>The dry land cropping ranges from flat Moree plains to rolling hillside at Croppa Creek/Warialda. The business also operates its own fleet of modern livestock and bulk trucks, ensuring the prompt delivery of cattle to processors and customers.</p>
<p>Structural improvements and infrastructure include quality plant and machinery, grain storage facilities, reticulated water troughs, fencing, cattle yards, storage facilities and accommodation. It also includes a long-standing management team and support team of mechanics and maintenance staff.</p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

26,000 hectare agri footprint in NSW’s Golden Triangle hits the market

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<div class="page" title="Page 1">GUEST OBSERVER</div>
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<div class="page" title="Page 1">New business spending on buildings and equipment fell by 5.2 percent in the March quarter after an upwardly-revised 1.8 percent lift in the December quarter.</div>
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<div class="page" title="Page 1">Spending on buildings fell by 7.9 per cent in the quarter while spending on equipment fell by 0.6 percent. Investment is down 15.4 percent over the year.</div>
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<br>Best lift in spending plans in nine years:<strong> </strong>The sixth estimate for investment in 2015/16 is $126.82 billion, up 2.9 percent on the fifth estimate (December quarter) and the biggest upward revision in almost a decade.</div>
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<div class="page" title="Page 1">Expected business investment in 2016/17: The second estimate of investment in 2016/17 is $89.2 billion, up 6.3 per cent on the first estimate and the second best lift for an equivalent period in eight years.</div>
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<br>Sectors:</div>
<div class="page" title="Page 1">Mining investment fell by 12.0 percent in the March quarter (seventh straight decline), while manufacturing spending fell by 10.3 pe cent but spending by “other selected industries” rose by 1.8 percent.</div>
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<div class="page" title="Page 1"> The investment data is important for companies in mining services, construction, transport and other industrial sectors.</div>
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<div class="page" title="Page 1"> What does it all mean?<br><p>The unwinding of the mining construction boom is proceeding to plan. New investment in the mining sector is continuing to ease as the sector moves from the construction phase to production. Essentially new production capacity had to be put in place.</p>
<p>That has happened, and now businesses are going about the job of shipping higher volumes of iron ore, coal, gold and gas to other parts of the world.</p>
<p>Investment outside mining and manufacturing continues to lift although it is by no means going gangbusters. Over the past six months, investment outside of mining and manufacturing has lifted by over seven per cent. As the Reserve Bank Governor noted this week, what is required in Australia is more innovation and risk taking.</p>
<p>The encouraging aspect of the latest investment report is the upgrade to spending plans. Investment plans for the current year were revised up when they are usually revised down at this time of the year.</p>
<p>And the near 3 per cent  upgrade in the quarter was the best in almost a decade. At  the same time the coming year’s investments plans were lifted by more than 6 percent.</p>
<p>You would expect that the budget measures for small and medium-sized businesses will further lift investment plans in the coming year.</p>
Investment in Queensland continues to slump, hitting 6- year lows. By contrast NSW investment is at 4-year highs.</div>
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<div class="page" title="Page 1">The unwinding of investment in Queensland is progressing faster than that in Western Australia, which is a surprise. Despite easing over recent years, Western Australia still remains the investment powerhouse in Australia with investment spending more than 50 per cent higher than second-placed NSW.</div>
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<p><span>What do the figures show? </span></p>
Private business investment</div>
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<br>Overall: New business spending on buildings and equipment fell by 5.2 percent in the March quarter after an upwardly-revised 1.8 percent lift in the December quarter.</div>
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<div class="column">Spending on buildings fell by 7.9 percent in the quarter while spending on equipment fell by 0.6 per cent. Investment is down 15.4 percent over the year with buildings down by 18.8 percent while equipment is down by 9.2 percent.</div>
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<br>Sectors:</div>
<div class="column">Mining investment fell by 12.0 per cent in the March quarter (seventh straight decline), while manufacturing spending fell by 10.3 per cent but spending by “other selected industries” rose by 1.8 per cent after a 5.3 per cent increase in the December quarter.</div>
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<br>States:</div>
<div class="column">In seasonally adjusted terms investment rose in just three of the eight states and territories in the March quarter. Investment rose the most in Tasmania (up 16.4 per cent to a near 3-year high), followed by NSW (up 3.4 per cent to 4-year highs). Investment fell most in the Northern Territory (down 17.5 per cent), followed by Queensland (down 13.0 per cent), ACT (down 12.5 per cent), Western Australia (down 7.6 per cent), South Australia (down 2.3 per cent) and Victoria (down 0.2 per cent).</div>
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<br>Prices:</div>
<div class="column">The overall deflator for investment goods fell by 0.4 per cent in the March quarter – the first fall in 31⁄2 years. The cost of buildings and structures fell by 0.4 per cent while the cost of equipment fell by 0.6 per cent. Over the year, the cost of investment goods rose by 1.5 per cent – the smallest gain in a year. The cost of buildings rose by 0.5 per cent while the cost of investment equipment rose by 3.1 per cent.</div>
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<br>Forecasts:</div>
<div class="column">The sixth estimate for investment in 2015/16 is $126.82 billion, up 2.9 per cent on the fifth estimate (December quarter) and the biggest upward revision in nine years.</div>
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<div class="column">The second estimate of investment in 2016/17 is $89.2 billion, up 6.3 per cent on the first estimate and the second best lift for an equivalent period in eight years.</div>
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<div class="column">What is the importance of the economic data?</div>
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<p><span></span><span>“Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure” </span><span>is released quarterly by the Bureau of Statistics. The figures show both actual and expected spending by businesses on tangible assets such as new buildings, machinery and office equipment. The figures are obtained after sampling 8,000 private business units. </span></p>
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<p><span>What are the implications for interest rates and investors? </span></p>
The Reserve Bank had always expected that the unwinding of the mining construction boom would be an extended process. And it is turning out that way. But investment is lifting outside mining and manufacturing. And businesses are becoming more confident about spending money to boost future prospects for their operations.</div>
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<div class="column">The use of technology and productivity measures are allowing businesses to use equipment a little longer as well as making better use of offices and factories. So one reason that businesses aren’t lifting investment is because they are operating more efficiently. It is all about reducing costs in a low inflation world.</div>
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<div class="column">The Reserve Bank may cut rates again. Indeed we are factoring in a quarter per cent rate cut in August. One reason is because the Reserve Bank hopes that monetary policy still works to boost spending, investment and hiring. But also rate cuts are being considered because Australia is no longer the high inflation country it once was. Rates can fall closer to that in other advanced nations. </div>
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<div class="column"><em>Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</em></div>
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cjames-5S2v74qSNK

Biggest lift in investment plans in almost a decade: CommSec's Craig James 

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<p>Conditions have generally improved over the past six months for businesses in the resource-related sector, according to RBA’s Financial Stability Review 2017.</p>
<p>The rise in commodity prices since the beginning of 2016, particularly for iron ore, and the ongoing efforts of these businesses to cut costs and reduce debt, have led to a substantial increase in the aggregate earnings of listed resource-related corporations (Graph 2.12).</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.12.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.12.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Many listed resource-related corporations have used some of their increased profits to pay down debts, resulting in a decline in the sector’s gearing and debt servicing ratios.</p>
<p>In line with these positive developments, resource-related corporations’ distance-to-default measures have increased over the past year (Graph 2.13).</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.13.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.13.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Nevertheless, earnings have continued to weaken for mining services corporations as resource producers have focused on cost reduction.</p>
<p>As noted in previous Reviews, banks’ direct exposures to the mining sector have declined in recent years and now constitute only a little over 1 per cent of their total lending, though this figure excludes banks’ exposures to non-resource-related businesses operating in mining regions (Graph 2.14).</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.14.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.14.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Conditions remain challenging for these businesses, given mining firms’ continued focus on cost containment, and some indicators of financial distress have picked up.</p>
<p>For instance, unincorporated business failure rates are elevated in Queensland and Western Australia (Graph 2.15).</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.15.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.15.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>If higher commodity prices were to fall or not translate into improved economic conditions in mining-exposed regions, business failure rates may pick up further.</p>
<p>Outside the mining-exposed states, businesses’ finances generally appear sound and indicators of stress are low.</p>
<p>Survey measures of business conditions are well above their historical averages; listed corporations’ distance-to- default measures have continued their trend improvement and earnings have been in line with previous years; failure rates are low; gearing remains around its historical average; and many businesses continue to benefit from the depreciation of the Australian dollar since 2013 (Graph 2.16).</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.16.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.16.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The low interest rate environment has also made it easier for companies to meet their debt obligations by reducing debt-servicing costs (Graph 2.17).</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.17.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/19/Graph%202.17.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Find the RBA's latest Financial Stability Review 2017 <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au" target="_blank">here</a>.</p>
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Conditions have improved mining businesses: RBA

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER </p>
<p>Businesses are investing again.</p>
<p>And while ‘animal spirits’ are not running rampant as yet, the best back-to-back gains in investment spending have been recorded for three years. And the outlook is brightening.</p>
<p>In the June quarter, expectations for investment in 2017/18 lifted by almost 18 per cent. You have to go back seven years to find a June quarter upgrade as positive. </p>
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<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%209.41.30%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Investment outside mining and manufacturing sectors hit record highs in the June quarter. And this may be under- stating the true situation because the Bureau of Statistics survey of investment excludes a number of key sectors such as health care, education, the public sector and agriculture.</p>
<p>So overall there is a lot to like with the latest investment survey – spending is rising, especially in the services sectors, while investment plans are being revised higher. Lower prices for equipment is one of the factors supporting investment spending together with strong corporate balance sheets.</p>
<p>What do the figures show?</p>
<p>Private business investment</p>
<p>Overall: Business investment (spending on buildings and equipment) rose by 0.8 per cent in the June quarter after a 0.9 per cent lift in the March quarter. Spending on buildings fell by 0.6 per cent in the quarter while spending on equipment rose by 2.7 per cent – the strongest quarterly gain in almost three years. Investment is down 3.0 per cent over the year with buildings down by 5.1 per cent while equipment was down by 0.1 per cent.</p>
<p>Sectors: Mining investment fell by 2.8 per cent in the June quarter, while manufacturing spending rose by 1.4 per cent and spending by “other selected industries” rose by 2.8 per cent.</p>
<p>States: In seasonally adjusted terms investment rose in five of the eight states and territories in the June quarter: NSW (up 3.5 per cent); Victoria (up 2.5 per cent); Queensland (up 1.6 per cent); South Australia (down 5.5 per cent0; Western Australia (down 1.4 per cent); Tasmania (up 0.4 per cent); Northern Territory (down 7.3 per cent; ACT (up 9.2 per cent).</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%209.44.37%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-01%20at%209.44.37%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Prices: The overall deflator for investment goods rose by 0.1 per cent in the June quarter after rising by 0.2 per cent in the March quarter. The cost of buildings and structures rose by 0.7 per cent while the cost of equipment fell by 0.5 per cent. Over the year, the cost of investment goods rose by 0.5 per cent. The cost of buildings rose by 3.1 per cent – the fastest rate in 8 years – while the cost of investment equipment fell by 2.8 per cent.</p>
<p>In 2016/17, business investment totalled $112.2 billion – the lowest financial year total in seven years.</p>
<p>Forecasts: The third estimate of investment in 2017/18 is $101.78 billion and is 3.6 per cent lower than the third estimate for 2016/17 – the smallest decline (best result) for a second estimate reading in five years. The upgrade in investment between the second and the third estimate was 17.6 per cent – the biggest upgrade in 7 years. </p>
<p>Private sector credit</p>
<p>Private sector credit (lending) rose by 0.5 per cent in July after a 0.4 per cent rise in June. Annual credit growth eased from 5.4 per cent to 5.3 per cent.</p>
<p>Housing credit grew by 0.5 per cent in July to be up 6.6 per cent on a year ago. Annual growth was steady at 6.6 per cent.</p>
<p>Owner occupier housing credit rose by 0.5 per cent in July to stand 6.1 per cent higher over the year. The last time growth was lower than now was September 2015. Investor housing finance lifted 0.4 per cent in June to stand 7.4 per cent higher over the year – the third month annual growth has been at that level.</p>
<p>Personal credit fell by 0.1 per cent in July to be down 1.4 per cent over the year.</p>
<p>Business credit rose by 0.5 per cent in July after a 0.8 per cent rise in June. Business credit is 4.2 per cent higher than a year ago.</p>
<p>Both M3 and Broad Money fell by 0.1 per cent in July – the first declines in six years. </p>
<p>What is the importance of the economic data?</p>
<p>“Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure” is released quarterly by the Bureau of Statistics. The figures show both actual and expected spending by businesses on tangible assets such as new buildings, machinery and office equipment. The figures are obtained after sampling 8,000 private business units.</p>
<p>Private sector credit figures are released by the Reserve Bank on the last working day of the month. Credit is separated into three categories – housing, other personal and business. Private sector credit is effectively the amount of loans outstanding in the economy. If growth in lending is strong then it suggests that credit from financial institutions is freely available, underlying demand for assets such as cars and houses is firm and that the price of credit (interest rates) is attractive.</p>
<p>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</p>
<p>Businesses are confident and spending. And the expectation is that businesses will keep spending. In fact during the earnings season a number of listed companies indicated a preference to plough money back into their operations rather than just continue to lift dividends.</p>
<p>Despite the positive data, CommSec still expects official interest rates to remain on hold for an extended period. Investment is lifting, but from a low base. And inflation is contained outside the construction sector. </p>
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<p><span><em>Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</em> </span></p>
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Biggest lift in planned investment in 7 years: Craig James

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<p>Did you know that Australians can partner with Amazon, the world’s largest online retailer ($136 billion in sales last year in 11 global markets)?</p>
<p>You can build your own business on their platform without having the usual e-commerce business challenges such as building a website, finding customers or shipping products to those customers.</p>
<p>Amazon is your chance to escape the rat race. Imagine being paid every 2 weeks no matter where in the world you are...you could be travelling, enjoying quality time with your family or helping make the world a better place.</p>
<p>Treat an Amazon business like an investment rather than a traditional business.</p>
<p>Once an Amazon business has been set up correctly it takes less time and effort to manage than a property portfolio.</p>
<p>People (justlikeYOU) are building aside-business by selling products on Amazon.</p>
<p>Adam Hudson, Leading Amazon expert, serial entrepreneur &amp; founder of Reliable Education is keen to show you How to Partner with Amazon to generate a RELIABLE INCOME that gives you FINANCIAL &amp; TIME FREEDOM!</p>
<p>In his <a href="https://online.reliable.education/free-amazon-training-course?affiliate_id=799620&amp;aff_sub=&amp;aff_sub2=&amp;nopopup=false&amp;noautoplay=false&amp;cookiepreview=false" target="_blank">Free 4 Part Video Series</a> Adam tells you why Amazon’s such an incredible business opportunity &amp; teaches key principles for starting an Amazon business.</p>
<p>Adam's been featured in Sky Business News, ABC News, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, WebRetailer.com, Inc.com and Newsweek. Adam's offering you FREE access to his <a href="https://online.reliable.education/free-amazon-training-course?affiliate_id=799620&amp;aff_sub=&amp;aff_sub2=&amp;nopopup=false&amp;noautoplay=false&amp;cookiepreview=false" target="_blank">4 Part Amazon Training Course</a> over flowing with everything you need to know to get started.</p>
<p>Here’s what Reliable Education students had to say about the course:</p>
<p>''I was captivated from the minute I saw the first video of Adam speaking about selling on the Amazon platform. His enthusiasm, energy and genuine approach is refreshing.</p>
<p>He explains everything in an interesting, concise and clear manner.” Vanessa-Sydney, Australia.</p>
<p>“I run several other traditional companies however my wife and I are looking to spend more time with our young family and Amazon ticked all the boxes.</p>
<p>"The team at Reliable Education have been great. No hype. No sensationalism. Just solid business advice and loads of ongoing support.” Eric-Entrepreneur, Property Investor &amp; Father-Brisbane, Australia</p>
<p>This is <a href="https://online.reliable.education/free-amazon-training-course?affiliate_id=799620&amp;aff_sub=&amp;aff_sub2=&amp;nopopup=false&amp;noautoplay=false&amp;cookiepreview=false" target="_blank">practical Business Education</a> with tangible results! Here are real Reliable Education students who decided to take action &amp; put into practise what they learnt:</p>
<p>Ben...."I sold my engineering company after working with Adam. Now I work from home, see my kids and run a successful Amazon business"</p>
<p>Jon..."I was working as an Advertising Executive. I went from $0 To $50,000/month in revenue and after only 18 months I quit my job."</p>
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<p>You’ve not missed the boat on Amazon...NOW is a great time. RIGHT NOW!!!</p>
<p>Everyday our students are going live on Amazon in the US...and preparing themselves for the Amazon Australia launch!</p>
<p>This is a HUGE business opportunity for savvy Australia entrepreneurs!</p>
<p>Don’t sit on the sidelines and watch as Amazon disrupts the Australian market place - be a part of it... take the <a href="https://online.reliable.education/free-amazon-training-course?affiliate_id=799620&amp;aff_sub=&amp;aff_sub2=&amp;nopopup=false&amp;noautoplay=false&amp;cookiepreview=false" target="_blank">FREE course to get STARTED</a>!</p>
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spost-fCfKtoCdFu

Right Place, Right Time - Build An Amazon Business Today!

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>It’s easy to ask businesses to invest more, hard to get them to do it. <span class="attribution"><span class="source"><br></span></span></p>
<p>You know the economy is in trouble when a clever and successful Liberal Party treasurer resorts to doing an <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Warren" target="_blank">Elizabeth Warren</a> impersonation in front of the Business Council of Australia in hopes of boosting investment.</p>
<p>That’s what <a href="https://joshfrydenberg.com.au/latest-news/making-our-own-luck-australias-productivity-challenge/" target="_blank">Josh Frydenberg</a> did on Monday, saying:</p>
<p>Share buybacks and capital returns are becoming increasingly prominent and the default option for corporates. But is a buyback always the best option for the future growth of the company and therefore the economy?</p>
<p>Let’s set aside the fact that the recent uptick in buybacks was almost entirely due to a $15.4 billion capital return from BHP after selling off what was left of its ill-fated shale oil and gas investments in the United States.</p>
<p><strong>Are buybacks bad?</strong></p>
<p>A bunch of US Democratic presidential hopefuls sure think so. Self-proclaimed “Democratic Socialist” Bernie Sanders joined with the more centrist Senate Minority leader Chuck Schumer to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/03/opinion/chuck-schumer-bernie-sanders">propose legislation</a> that would require companies spending money to buy back their own shares to raise the minimum wage of their workers $15 an hour and provide seven days of paid annual sick leave.</p>
<p>A number of other prominent Democrats have similar ideas, including Warren, and fellow Senators Kamala Harris and Cory Booker.</p>
<p>There is a myth that share buybacks are some kind of “sure thing” benefit to shareholders that is worth dispelling.</p>
<p>The myth goes like this.</p>
<p>A company buys back some number of its outstanding shares from willing sellers. That reduces the number of shares, but future profits haven’t changed. So, earnings per share go up, and so does the stock price.</p>
<p>That’s said to be is a win for the remaining shareholders, but the business won’t invest as much in capital expenditures and workers might miss out on pay rises.</p>
<p>This logic is tantalising, but wrong. What is overlooked in that the business used cash on hand to buy back its stock. So the value of the company to the shareholders who didn’t sell isn’t the same – it’s been reduced by the amount of the buyback.</p>
<p>The key question is whether that cash can be used more productively inside the company than paid out. US firms like Apple and Boeing have recently undertaken significant buybacks and seen their share price rise relative to the broader stock market. That’s the market telling us that the money is better used outside of Apple and Boeing than in.</p>
<p>The correct term for buybacks like that that increase value is “good corporate governance”, not “short-sighted capitalism” or “theft”.</p>
<p><strong>How to get business to invest more</strong></p>
<p>Having said that, Frydenberg was spot on in his analysis of what is needed to boost wages in Australia:</p>
<p>If we are going to create new jobs and enable people to earn more for what they do, we need businesses to increase their capital expenditure and to adopt new technologies and business practices that effectively integrates capital with labour.“</p>
<p>The question is how to do that.</p>
<p>One thing’s for sure, trying to bully companies into doing it isn’t the answer.</p>
<p>Business invest earnings in plants and equipment when the economic environment is attractive.</p>
<p>Bureau of Statistics figures released Thursday made clear that business have a <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5625.0" target="_blank">negative view</a> of that environment.</p>
<p>Capital expenditures were down a seasonally-adjusted 0.5% in the June quarter – worse than market expectations – and down 1% over the year.</p>
<p><strong>The problem with an investment allowance</strong></p>
<p>One idea the treasurer is reportedly considering is a so-called ”<a href="https://www.bca.com.au/in_the_absence_of_tax_cuts_investment_allowance_is_key" target="_blank">investment allowance</a>“, much like the investment allowance the <a href="https://www.acra.com.au/government-investment-allowance-10-tax-rebate/" target="_blank">Rudd government</a> introduced during the global financial crisis between December 2008 to December 2009.</p>
<p>It would give businesses an immediate tax deduction of, say, 10% on spending on equipment and plant and machinery, in additional to the normal annual deduction for depreciation.</p>
<p>The problem with such allowances is that they don’t provide certainty. The fact that they have been brought in and quickly ended makes it look as if they will be taken away. So businesses use them to bring forward investments rather than make long term plans.</p>
<p>And it is hard to limit them to "additional investment” as Frydenberg said he wanted to on Monday.</p>
<p>By contrast, cutting the company tax rate would signal a permanent shift in policy. It’s politically difficult, which perversely would make it a credible signal about future conditions.</p>
<p>Cutting the rate right away, to 25%, would help move us away from one of the highest corporate tax rates in the developed world, and would boost investment.</p>
<p>The best <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20130570" target="_blank">empirical evidence</a> is that about half the benefit of company tax cuts goes to workers. And as <a href="https://www.afr.com/opinion/the-evidence-is-in-cutting-australias-corporate-tax-will-cut-inequality-20180129-h0prje" target="_blank">I wrote early last year</a>, that evidence suggests that young, low-skilled, and female workers benefit the most.</p>
<p>We also need major government investments in physical and social infrastructure to deal with flagging demand and create an environment in which companies will find it worthwhile to invest.</p>
<p>In the low-growth, low-inflation, secular stagnation world we are in budget surpluses are neither prudent nor evidence of sound economic management. They are a death sentence for jobs and growth.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122614/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a></em></p>
<p><em>This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-business-investment-is-flatlining-and-it-isnt-clear-that-suasion-or-a-special-allowance-will-help-122614" target="_blank">original article</a>.</em></p>
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