Bushfires

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<p class="legacy">GUEST OBSERVATION </p>
<p class="legacy">Oysters are filter feeders, extracting nutrients from the water, so that makes them very susceptible to water pollution such as that from bushfires.</p>
<p>We are trying to understand how ash from the 2019-20 bushfires has affected the waterways and oyster farms of New South Wales. Their production is worth <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer">more than A$59 million</a> a year.</p>
<p>On the state’s south coast we’re working with oyster farmers as citizen scientists to determine how the ash can lead to harmful algal blooms and oyster deaths.</p>
<p>Over the past two years, farmers have taken more than 9,000 water and oyster samples across 13 estuaries. It’s the largest ever set of water quality and oyster health measurements from oyster-producing estuaries.</p>
<p>This spans the period before, during and after the recent bushfires, providing a unique opportunity to track their impact.</p>
<p>We are still analysing results, but it’s already clear the combination of bushfire ash followed by rainfall led to large increases in microalgae (phytoplankton) in estuaries, including species that can cause harmful algal blooms.</p>
<p><strong>From coast to coast</strong></p>
<p>More than half of the value of Australia’s oyster industry comes from NSW. Along the state’s 2,000km coastline, oyster leases are found in 32 estuaries, north to the Tweed River near the Queensland border and south to Wonboyn Lake near the Victorian border.</p>
<p>Leases are occupied within estuarine ecosystems, with each of these estuaries having a unique climate, catchment condition, area and entrance type.</p>
<p>Some of the NSW farmers are both oyster farmers and Rural Fire Service members, who faced the unenviable task of trying to save both their livelihoods and their homes at the same time during the 2019-20 fire season.</p>
<p>Oysters provide ecosystem services to waterways in which they grow. They shelter invertebrates such as worms, crabs and snails, and they provide natural breakwalls for shoreline protection.</p>
<p>Via their filter feeding of microalgae, individual oysters can <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0044848683903137" title="The Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas: Part I. Feeding behaviour of larvae and adults">filter several litres of seawater per hour</a>, and their presence <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-surprising-benefits-of-oysters-and-no-its-not-what-youre-thinking-90697">improves water quality</a>.</p>
<p>Oysters are used as early-warning biomonitors of waterway health in environmental monitoring programs around the world.</p>
<p>Our new approach to examine the effect of water quality on oyster health is to look at environmental DNA (eDNA). This means we filter water and extract DNA directly from the filtrate. We then use molecular genetic tools to detect and quantify <a href="https://aem.asm.org/content/77/19/7050.short" title="sxtA-Based Quantitative Molecular Assay To Identify Saxitoxin-Producing Harmful Algal Blooms in Marine Waters">harmful microalgae and bacteria</a>.</p>
<p><strong>The ripple effect: from bushfire to waterway</strong></p>
<p>The recent bushfires were a timely reminder that what happens on land can impact waterways and that coastal regional areas are susceptible.</p>
<p>The NSW government <a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/topics/parks-reserves-and-protected-areas/fire/park-recovery-and-rehabilitation/recovering-from-2019-20-fires/understanding-the-impact-of-the-2019-20-fires">says</a> the 2019-20 bushfires covered 5.4 million hectares, roughly 7% of the state. Nationally, more than 17 million hectares were affected.</p>
<p>Many oyster-growing estuaries were impacted by bushfires in their catchments, especially on the NSW south coast.</p>
<p>While <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/07/massive-relief-torrential-rain-douses-bushfires-across-parts-of-australia">rain this summer</a> gave a reprieve from the fires, it can wash ash into the estuaries, bringing with it excessive nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) or trace elements (iron, manganese, arsenic, chromium, aluminium, barium and lead).</p>
<p>These supplements can act as fertilisers, triggering the excessive growth of marine microalgae.</p>
<p><strong>Harmful algal blooms</strong></p>
<p>The growth of some microalgae is essential, but an excess of certain microalgal species (some of which can naturally produce toxins) can result in <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.mdpi.com/1660-3397/15/2/33" title="Recent Trends in Marine Phycotoxins from Australian Coastal Waters">harmful algal blooms</a>.</p>
<p>A harmful algal bloom in an estuary will trigger the closure of oyster harvesting until oysters are clean. One of the largest and most significant harmful algal blooms <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-05/shellfish-toxin-makes-first-appearance-in-bass-strait/4939514">impacted the Tasmanian shellfish industry</a> in 2012-13. It resulted in an economic loss of around A$23 million.</p>
<p>Bushfire ash may have a more direct impact, by covering the surface of the water so light, which microalgae need to grow, can’t penetrate. This can cause microalgae to die or grow very slowly.</p>
<p>A mass death of microalgae could then change the amount of oxygen available in the water for the growth of oysters and other marine life. Excessive particulate matter in the waterway can also clog the gills of oysters, affecting their ability to filter feed.</p>
<p><strong>A sustainable food</strong></p>
<p>In Australia, seafood is very safe to eat. Strict monitoring and testing by <a href="https://www.foodauthority.nsw.gov.au/consumer/keeping-food-safe/summer-eating/seafood-safety">government regulators</a> have ensured illnesses are extremely rare.</p>
<p>Government regulators are active participants in developing new, more streamlined approaches to food safety monitoring. This combination of scientists, government regulators and oyster farmer citizen scientists working together is a model for a healthy and viable future for oyster aquaculture in the face of challenging events.</p>
<p>After all, oysters are <a href="https://www.marineconservation.org.au/is-aquaculture-sustainable/">regarded</a> as one of the most sustainable forms of animal protein so they need our protection.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://seagrant.gso.uri.edu/how-eating-more-oysters-could-reduce-greenhouse-gas-emissions/">recent study</a> showed that replacing 10% of animal protein with oysters in the diet of the US population would lead to greenhouse gas savings equivalent to taking 11 million cars off the road.</p>
<p>Australia also has a <a href="http://aquaticcommons.org/9751/">rich heritage</a> of oyster aquaculture. For thousands of year, oysters were a staple food of First Nations people.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/fishing/fish-species/species-list/sydney-rock-oyster">Sydney Rock Oyster</a> is one of the native species that’s been cultivated as a profitable industry in Australia since European habitation.</p>
<p>They’ve been farmed sustainably for more than 150 years. These oysters are still the basis of a profitable industry, which has grown in size over recent years.</p>
<p>We hope the results of our research will ensure the long-term viability of an industry <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/fisheries/fisheries-and-aquaculture-statistics">worth millions of dollars</a> to the Australian economy but, just as importantly, helps support many coastal communities.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131294/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/shauna-murray-112963">Shauna Murray</a>, Associate Professor; Faculty of Science, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936">University of Technology Sydney</a></em> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/penelope-ajani-267601">Penelope Ajani</a>, Chancellors Post Doctoral Fellow, Climate Change Cluster, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936">University of Technology Sydney</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ah-shucks-how-bushfires-can-harm-and-even-kill-our-delicious-oysters-131294">original article</a>.</p>
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Ah shucks, how bushfires can harm and even kill our delicious oysters

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<p>GUEST OBSERVATION</p>
<p>First the drought, then bushfires and then flash floods: a chain of extreme events hit Australia hard in recent months. The coronavirus pandemic has only temporarily shifted our attention towards a new emergency, adding yet another risk.</p>
<p>We knew from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that the risk of extreme events was rising. What we perhaps didn’t realise was the high probability of different extreme events hitting one after the other in the same regions. Especially in the fringes of Australian cities, residents are facing new levels of environmental risk, especially from bushfires and floods.</p>
<p>But this cycle of devastation is not inevitable if we understand the connections between events and do something about them.</p>
<p>Measures to slow climate change are in the hands of policymakers. But, at the adaptation level, we can still do many things to reduce the impacts of extreme events on our cities.</p>
<p>We can start by increasing our capacity to see these phenomena as one problem to be tackled locally, rather than distinct problems to be addressed centrally. Solutions should be holistic, community-centred and focused on people’s practices and shared responsibilities.</p>
<p><strong>Respond to emergency</strong></p>
<p>We can draw lessons from humanitarian responses to large disasters, including both national and international cases. A recent review of disaster responses in urban areas found several factors are critical for more successful recovery.</p>
<p>One is to prioritise the needs of people themselves. This requires genuine, collaborative engagement. People who have been through a bushfire or flood are not “helpless victims”. They are survivors who need to be supported and listened to, not dictated to, in terms of what they may or may not need.</p>
<p>Another lesson is to link recovery efforts, rather than have individual agencies provide services separately. For instance, an organisation focusing on housing recovery needs to work closely with organisations that are providing water or sanitation. A coordinated approach is more efficient, less wearying on those needing help, and better reflects the interconnected reality of everyday life.</p>
<p>In the aid world this is known as an “area-based” approach. It prioritises efforts that are driven by people demand rather than by the supply available.</p>
<p>A third lesson is give people money, not goods. Money allows people to decide what they really need, rather than rely on the assumptions of others.</p>
<p>As the bushfires have shown, donations of secondhand goods and clothes often turn into piles of unwanted goods. Disposal then becomes a problem in its own right.</p>
<p><strong>Combining local knowledge and engagement</strong></p>
<p>Planning approaches in outer urban areas should be realigned with our current understanding of bushfire and flood risk. This situation is challenging planners to engage with residents in new ways to ensure local needs are met, especially in relation to disaster resilience.</p>
<p>In areas of high bushfire risk, planning needs to connect equally with the full range of locals. Landscape and biodiversity experts, including Indigenous land managers, and emergency managers should work in association with planning processes that welcome input from residents. This approach is highly likely to reduce risks.</p>
<p>Planners have a vital job to create platforms that enable the interplay of ideas, local values and traditional knowledge. Authentic engagement can increase residents’ awareness of environmental hazards. It can also pave the way for specific actions by authorities to reduce risks, such as those undertaken by Country Fire Service community engagement units in South Australia.</p>
<p>Managing water to build bushfire resilience<br>Regenerating ecosystems by responding to flood risk can be crucial to increase urban and peri-urban resilience while reducing future drought and bushfire impacts.</p>
<p>Research on flood management suggests rainwater must be always seen as a resource, even in the case of extreme events. Sustainable water management through harvesting, retention and reuse can have long-term positive effects in regenerating micro-climates. It is at the base of any action aimed at comprehensively increasing resilience.</p>
<p>In this sense, approaches based on decentralised systems are more effective at countering the risks of drought, fire and flood locally. They consist of small-scale nature-based solutions able to absorb and retain water to reduce flooding. Distributed off-grid systems support water harvesting in rainy seasons and prevent fires during drought by maintaining soil moisture.</p>
<p>Decentralisation also creates opportunities for innovation in the management of urban ecosystems, with responsibility shared among many. Mobile technologies can help communities play an active role in minimising flood impacts at the small scale. Information platforms can also help raise awareness of the links between risks and actions and lead to practical solutions that are within everybody’s reach.</p>
<p>Tailor responses to people and ecosystems<br>Disrupted ecosystems can make the local impacts of drought, fire and flood worse, but can also play a role in global failures, such as the recent pandemic. It is urgent to define and implement mechanisms to reverse this trend.</p>
<p>Lessons from disaster responses point towards the need to tailor solutions to community needs and local environmental conditions. A few key strategies are emerging:</p>
<p>1. foster networks and coordinated approaches that operate across silos</p>
<p>2. support local and traditional landscape knowledge</p>
<p>3. use information platforms to help people work together to manage risks</p>
<p>4/ manage water locally with the support of populations to prevent drought and bushfire.</p>
<p>Recent environmental crises are showing us the way to finally change direction. Safe cities and landscapes can be achieved only by regenerating urban ecosystems while responding to increasing environmental risks through integrated, people-centred actions.T</p>
<p>Elisa Palazzo, Urbanist and landscape planner - Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Built Environment, UNSW; Annette ˚Bardsley, Researcher, Department of Geography, Environment and Population, University of Adelaide, and David Sanderson, Professor and Inaugural Judith Neilson Chair in Architecture, UNSW</p>
<p>This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.</p>
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Drought, fire and flood: how outer urban areas can manage the emergency while reducing future risks

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<p>Many NSW towns are still reeling from the emotional, physical and financial impact of the summer of bushfire disasters.</p>
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<p>And historically, these local economies in bushfire affected towns undergo a resurgence within just a year of the disaster, with each community typically in a better economic position just a few years down the track.</p>
<p>But the impact of the coronavirus is going to be a setback in this recovery, just as the campaigns to encourage visitors was getting underway.</p>
<p>Recent auction offerings in NSW bushfire regions have not fared well, as it is just too early for the positives of investment to outweigh the obvious nearby signs of devastation.</p>
<p>Median house prices flattened in bushfire locations in the year of the bushfires, but by the second-year medians were above those in the year of the bushfires, according to the national estate agency, PRD Real Estate’s latest research report, Australia Bushfires: The Real Estate Perspective.</p>
<p>It gives a glimmer of hope to the devastating impact many Australian communities have experienced.</p>
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<p>PRD analysed the long-term effects of four previous catastrophic bushfires in Australia and found without fail that each community was in a better economic position just a few years down the track.</p>
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<p>“While it may be hard now for anyone to believe their community will survive, let alone thrive again, our research shows that is exactly the case," the PRD managing director Todd Hadley noted.</p>
<p>"Our analysis should give confidence to those wishing to remain in their local area but are unsure about its future economic viability.”</p>
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<p>The research examined the economic effects of four previous Australian bushfire disasters: the Canberra bushfires in 2003, Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria in 2009, Perth Hills bushfires in 2011 and Pinery bushfires in South Australia in 2015.</p>
<p>The PRD chief economist, Dr Mardiasmo acknowledged there has been damage that cannot be quantified on a personal level.</p>
<p>"This emotional anguish cannot be discounted, but there are some real positive economic benefits when communities choose to unite and persist in the process of rebuilding.”</p>
<p>“Each of the four previous bushfire affected areas analysed experienced an increase in Gross Regional Product (GRP) growth in the year immediately following the bushfires."</p>
<p>The Perth Hills region experienced an increase in GRP growth from +0.2 per cent in the year of the bushfire, up to +5.8 per cent in the year following, Dr Mardiasmo advised. </p>
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<p>It found economies started to turn around once compensation and insurance payments filtered into the communities.</p>
<p>This week the NSW state government announced a grant for businesses who have been indirectly affected by the bushfires and have lost business as a result. </p>
<p>There are 17 NSW LGAs eligible for this grant including the Blue Mountains, Eurobodalla, Hawkesbury, Lithgow, Port Macquarie, Shoalhaven, Wingecarribee and Wollondilly.</p>
<p>Eligible businesses must have experienced a 40 per cent drop in revenue over a three-month period, compared to the previous year, as a result of the recent bushfires. </p>
<p>Deputy Premier and Minister responsible for Disaster Recovery John Barilaro said about 20,000 NSW small businesses will be eligible.</p>
<p>As the towns were rebuilt, demand for construction often bought more people to the towns, boosting demand for accommodation, food and services. </p>
<p>Once charities passed on donated funds, local economies also started to improve with that money being spent locally helping many business owners get back on their feet.</p>
<p>PRD stressed it was essential these funds are quickly passed on to residents so that the economic cycle is kick started in these towns again.</p>
<p><em>This article was first published in the</em> Saturday Daily Telegraph. </p>
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Bushfire affected towns and suburbs could be set for resurgence: PRD Research

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<div class="column">Land values in NSW dropped by up to 33 per cent after the 2019/2020 bushfires destroyed properties across the state, according to the 'Review of the impact of bushfires on land values' report released on April 9, 2020.</div>
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<div class="column">CSIRO report that there was more than 10 million hectares of land burnt in Australian during the 2019/2020 bushfire season. This is greater than the combined area burned in the Black Saturday 2009 and Ash Wednesday 1983 bushfires. The CSIRO lists weather and vegetation as playing the major contributing factors to the 2019/2020 bushfires.</div>
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<p>Record low rainfall (2019 was the driest year since records began in 1900) and record high temperatures lead to dry vegetation and an increased frequency of fire weather days.</p>
<p>During the 2019/2020 bushfire season to date, NSW Justice has issued a natural disaster declaration for 51 LGAs across NSW.</p>
<p>The Rural Fire Service (RFS) recorded the most fire incidents in NSW in the 2019/2020 fire season over the last 20 years.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/24/NSW%20bushfire%20history.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The number of bushfire incidents recorded in each fire season  Source: NSW Review of the impact of bushfires on land values, 9 April 2020. </p>
<p> </p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/24/Areas%20of%20NSW%20subject%20to%20bushfires%20201920.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Areas of NSW that were subject to bushfires in the 2019/2020 bushfires. Source: NSW Review of the impact of bushfires on land values, 9 April 2020. </p>
<p>By March 3, 2020 the RFS recorded that the majority of destruction from the bushfires had occurred to residential properties with some commercial, industrial and public areas also being impacted. The total number of properties destroyed and damaged are as follows: </p>
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<td><span style="color: #ffffff;">Degree of damage</span></td>
<td><span style="color: #ffffff;">Residential </span></td>
<td><span style="color: #ffffff;">Out Building</span></td>
<td><span style="color: #ffffff;">Commercial </span></td>
<td><span style="color: #ffffff;">Industrial </span></td>
<td><span style="color: #ffffff;">Public Area</span></td>
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<td>Destroyed</td>
<td>2,355</td>
<td>5,207</td>
<td>172</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>49</td>
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<td>Damaged</td>
<td>962</td>
<td>1,911</td>
<td>71</td>
<td>26</td>
<td>66</td>
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Source: NSW Review of the impact of bushfires on land values, 9 April 2020.
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<p><span>In addition to the significant level of damage caused by the bushfires to property structures it has been suggested that the extent of the fires may also cause some sterilisation of the landscape. This is due to the greater intensity of these bushfires and the dryness of the landscape which had been in drought. However, the level of regeneration achievable will not be known until after the end of the bushfire season. </span></p>
<p>In response to the bushfires, the NSW government declared that it will cover the full cost of council rates for the third and fourth quarters of the 2019-2020 financial year and in conjunction with the Commonwealth government will pay the clean up costs for properties that were destroyed (Service NSW, 2020).</p>
<p><span>In early February 2020, NSW experienced significant rainfall which helped put out most fires in the state and weakened drought conditions across most of eastern NSW.</span></p>
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<p><span>The NSW Valuer General determines land values for approximately 2.6 million properties across the state each year. Almost half of these, 1.1 million, are in located in the </span><span>51 LGA’s where a natural disaster declaration </span><span>was issued. </span></p>
<p><span>NSW RFS impact assessment data indicates approximately 38,000 thousand of these were in the fire impact area. This represents approximately 1.5 per cent of the total number of valuations in the state.</span></p>
<div class="column">NSW Valuer-General David Parker studied the impact of past bushfires on property sales across the US and NSW to give land owners and councils an indication of where prices could fall this year after the unprecedented events of the past summer.</div>
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<div class="column">Impact on land values were contingent on where properties were located, how much land was destroyed by bushfires and the level of demand for land. </div>
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<div class="column">Dr Parker explains, “If there was a strong market for land before the bushfire and the bushfire only affected a small proportion of properties in the area, there was almost no effect [on the land value]". </div>
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<div class="column">Looking at the 2013 Blue Mountains bushfires, land values dropped between two and six per cent due to damage to relatively few properties but sustained high levels of demand in the region, ergo property prices after the event created many vacant blocks for sale. </div>
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<div class="column">However, on the flip side, there was an 11 to 33 per cent drop in land values after the 2017 Sir Ivan bushfires in the Warrumbungle local government area. </div>
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<div class="column">Dr Parker explained, "areas where demand is low and a high proportion of properties of land was destroyed, you saw the biggest impact on values. </div>
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<div class="column">"When you think about it, they're the people who need the most help. Their lives have been destroyed."</div>
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NSW land values dropped by up to 33 per cent after bushfires

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<p class="legacy">GUEST OBSERVATION</p>
<p>Last month, the Australian National University contracted with the Social Research Centre (SRC) to survey more than 3,000 Australian adults about their experiences and attitudes related to the bushfires.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://csrm.cass.anu.edu.au/research/surveys/anupoll" target="_blank">study</a> is the first of its kind to gauge how people were affected by the crisis and how it changed their views on a range of subjects, from climate change to the government response.</p>
<p>More than half of Australians felt anxiety</p>
<p>Our research shows the vast majority of Australians were touched in some way by the fires. We asked about eight different forms of impact, from lost property to disrupted holiday plans to difficulty breathing from the smoke.</p>
<p>About 14.4% of our respondents experienced direct exposure to the fires, either through their property damage or evacuations.</p>
<p>We can extrapolate further by looking at population <a href="http://stat.data.abs.gov.au/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=ERP_QUARTERLY" target="_blank">estimates</a> from the ABS and the number of visitors to areas impacted by the bushfires from the <a href="https://www.tra.gov.au/Domestic/domestic-tourism-results" target="_blank">National Visitors Survey</a> to estimate the total number of people directly affected at around 3 million.</p>
<p>And 77.8% of our respondents reported indirect exposure to the fires, such as having a friend or family member with damaged or threatened property, having travel or holiday plans disrupted, being exposed to the physical effects of smoke or feeling anxious or worried about the fires.</p>
<p>Breaking the data down by individual category, the severity of the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-01-07/prolonged-bushfire-smoke-creates-new-health-risks/11844934">public health challenges</a> becomes more clear.</p>
<p>Nearly six in 10 respondents (57%) said they were physically affected by the smoke, while 53.6% said they felt anxious or worried about the fires.</p>
<p><strong>Confidence in the government declined</strong></p>
<p>The long-running <a href="https://australianelectionstudy.org/">Australian Election Study</a> has shown that confidence in the federal government has declined substantially in the past few decades.</p>
<p>Crises have the potential to restore some of this trust if dealt with effectively and transparently. However, the government’s handling of the recent bushfire crisis seems to have had the opposite effect.</p>
<p>Confidence in the federal government declined by 10.9 percentage points from 38.2% in our survey in October 2019 to 27.3% by January 2020.</p>
<p>Confidence in other institutions, meanwhile, was quite stable over the four-month period, and higher than for the federal government. Rural fire-fighting services had the highest level of public trust in our survey at 92.5%.</p>
<p>We also found a significant decline in the percentage of people who said they would vote for the Coalition if an election was held that day. This dropped from 40.4% in October 2019 to just 34.8% in January 2020 – nearly even with those who said they would vote for Labor in January (33.4%).</p>
<p><strong>Significant increase in concern over global warming</strong></p>
<p>We also tracked significant changes in people’s attitudes towards the environment.</p>
<p>For instance, 49.7% of people reported the environment as one of the top two issues facing Australia in January 2020, compared to 41.5% of respondents in October 2019.</p>
<p>Another interesting finding: 10.2% reported fires, natural disasters or extreme weather as the most or second-most important issue facing Australians, up from nearly nonexistent in October 2019.</p>
<p>Our findings showed consistently higher concern among Australians when it comes to specific environmental issues. Comparing responses from our January 2020 survey and a 2008 ANUpoll, we saw two large increases in concern for loss of native vegetation, animal species or biodiversity (13 percentage points) and drought and drying (nine percentage points).</p>
<p>There was an even larger increase in the proportion of people who believe global warming or climate change will impact their lives.</p>
<p>Nearly three-quarters (72.3%) of respondents said global warming was a very serious or fairly serious threat, a substantial increase from the 56% who said so in 2008.</p>
<p>The majority of those living in capital cities said they felt global warming was a very serious problem (62%) or a threat (74.9%). Perhaps even more surprising, however, was the fact these views were shared by people in non-capital cities (52% said it was very serious, 65.5% said it was a threat).</p>
<p>Support for new coal mines has also declined sharply over the past eight months. In our January survey, 37% of respondents said the government should allow the opening of new coal mines, down from 45.3% in an <a href="https://dataverse.ada.edu.au/dataverse.xhtml?alias=CSES">ANU survey</a> from June 2019.</p>
<p>While being exposed to the bushfires appears to have made people more aware of environmental issues, the drop in support for new coal mines does not appear to have been driven by the crisis itself. Rather, it appears to be consistent across the population, with the biggest decline occurring among those who voted for the Coalition in the 2019 federal election (57.5% supported new mines in January 2020, down from 71.8% in June 2019).</p>
<p>There is still much work to be done to fully understand people’s attitudes towards climate change and how this correlates with natural disasters like bushfires.</p>
<p>But the data in our survey provide opportunities for future research and new insights and will be made available through the Australian Data Archive. Future surveys could test for changes in people’s attitudes taking into account different variables and track how those attitudes change over time.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131672/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nicholas-biddle-10171">Nicholas Biddle</a>, Professor of Economics and Public Policy, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877">Australian National University</a></em>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ben-edwards-446349">Ben Edwards</a>, Associate Professor, Child and Youth Development and Longitudinal Studies, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877">Australian National University</a></em>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/diane-herz-965267">Diane Herz</a>, CEO, Social Research Centre, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877">Australian National University</a></em>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/toni-makkai-968244">Toni Makkai</a>, Emeritus Professor, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877">Australian National University</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/nearly-80-of-australians-affected-in-some-way-by-the-bushfires-new-survey-shows-131672">original article</a>.</p>
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Nearly 80% of Australians have been affected by bushfires in some way

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>2020 has seen a very noisy start to the year with one major event with significant human and investment market implications after another.</p>
<p>For Australia it started with an intensification of the bushfires but moved on to a significant ramping up of US/Iran tensions where, according to President Trump, war came “closer than you thought” and now the coronavirus outbreak is creating fears of a global pandemic and a big hit to global economic activity.</p>
<p>These are scary in terms of their human consequences, but also in terms of the potential economic fallout and what it means for investors.</p>
<p>The coronavirus outbreak in particular continues to pose significant uncertainty around the short-term economic outlook. In terms of the key things to watch there is some good news with signs of a reported slowing in new cases in China and still limited transmission outside China (which has 99% of cases). And the mortality rate at just over 2% remains lower than with SARS.</p>
<p>Against this there remains much debate about the true number of cases, it’s common in outbreaks to see periods of stabilisation only to be followed by a spike in cases and the disruption to economic activity in China and from global travel bans remain significant all of which makes it easy to imagine the worst in terms of economic consequences. Each week China remains say 2/3rds shut it knocks 1.3% off its GDP or 0.25% directly off global GDP.</p>
<p>Then again much of 2018 and 2019 saw endless talk about how much the trade war was going to knock off global growth. More fundamentally, the coronavirus outbreak is part of a seemingly never-ending worry list which is receiving an ever-higher prominence as the information age enables the rapid dissemination of news, opinion and noise. But as Frank Zappa warned “information is not knowledge, knowledge is not wisdom”. The danger is that information overload is making us worse investors as we focus on one worry after another resulting in ever shorter investment horizons.</p>
<p><strong>Are the worries more worrying than ever?</strong></p>
<p>When I was a teenager in the 1970s I used to bemoan my grandmother for reading too much gloom into the nightly TV news and telling me that the world is much worse today than when she was young….when there was WW1, Spanish influenza that reportedly killed around 50 million people, the Great Depression and WW2 when her brother was killed.</p>
<p>However, now it seems the worry list is even bigger. Yes, there is a fundamental element as global growth is slower, technological disruption is leading to worker anxiety and inflated expectations, and the world seems awash in geopolitical risks. But there is a huge psychological aspect to this that is combining with the increasing availability of information and intensifying competition amongst various forms of media for clicks, that is magnifying perceptions around various worries.</p>
<p>We all suffer from a behavioural trait that in its financial manifestation is known as "loss aversion" in that a loss in financial wealth is felt much more distastefully than the beneficial impact of the same sized gain. This probably reflects the evolution of the human brain in the Pleistocene age when the trick was to avoid being eaten by a sabre-toothed tiger or squashed by a woolly mammoth. This makes us biased to be more risk averse and on the lookout for threats which leaves us more predisposed to bad news stories as opposed to good news stories.</p>
<p>So bad news and gloom find a more ready market than good news or balanced commentary as it appeals to our instinct to look for threats. Hence “bad new sells”. Of course, this has always been the case so there is nothing new here.</p>
<p>The big change though is that we are now exposed to more information in relation to everything including our investments. This is great in the sense that we can check things, analyse them and sound informed easier than ever. But often we have no way of weighing such information and no time to do so.</p>
<p>If we can’t filter it, it becomes information overload and noise. This can be bad for investors as when faced with more (and often bad) news we can freeze up and make the wrong decisions with our investment as our natural “loss aversion” combines with what is called the “recency bias” that sees people give more weight to recent events which can see investors project recent bad news into the future and so sell after a fall.</p>
<p>Finally, the problem is being compounded by an explosion in media outlets all competing for your attention.</p>
<p>We are now bombarded with economic and financial news and opinions with 24/7 coverage by web sites, subscription services, finance updates, dedicated TV and online channels, etc. And in competing for your attention, bad news and gloom trumps good news and balanced commentary as “bad news sells.”</p>
<p>So naturally it seems that the bad news is ‘badder’ and the worries more worrying than ever. Google the words “the coming financial crisis” and you get 236 million search results - up from 115 million when I did it 18 months ago.</p>
<p>The trouble is that there is no evidence that all this noise is making us better investors. Average returns are no higher than in the past. A concern is that the combination of a massive ramp up in information combined with our natural inclination to zoom in on negative news is making us worse investors: more fearful, more jittery and more short term focussed.</p>
<p><strong> Five ways to manage the perpetual worry list</strong></p>
<p>So here we take another look at five ways to manage the worry list and turn down the noise:</p>
<p>Firstly, put the latest worry list in context. Remember that there has always been an endless stream of worries. Here's a list of the worries of the last five years that have weighed on markets at various points: deflation; commodity/oil crash; Grexit; China worries; Brazil and Russia in recession; manufacturing slump globally; Fed rate hikes; Brexit; South China Sea tensions; Trump; Eurozone elections; North Korea; Germany; Catalonia; Italy; US inflation and rates; Trade war; China slowdown; Aust Royal Commission; Aust housing downturn; US government shutdown; inverted yield curves; impeachment; Aust recession fears; and Iran tensions.</p>
<p>Yet despite this extensive worry list investment returns have actually been okay with average balanced growth super funds returning 7.3% pa over the last five years after taxes and fees. In fact, the global economy has had plenty of worries over the last century, but it got over them with Australian shares returning 11.8% pa since 1900 and US shares 9.9%pa.</p>
<p>And while history doesn’t repeat it does rhyme and it’s often useful to look back at previous similar events to the latest worry to see how they panned out. This is where the experience around SARS is useful in relation to the latest coronavirus outbreak. Secondly, recognise how markets work.</p>
<p>A diverse portfolio of shares returns more than bonds and cash over the long-term because it can lose money in the short-term. While the share market is highly volatile in the short-term it has seen strong returns over rolling 20-year periods. So, volatility driven by worries and bad news is normal. It’s the price investors pay for higher long-term returns.</p>
<p>Thirdly, find a way to filter news so that it doesn't distort your investment decisions. For example, this could involve building your own investment process or choosing 1-3 good investment subscription services and relying on them. Or simpler still, agreeing to a long-term strategy with a financial planner and sticking to it.</p>
<p>Ultimately it all depends on how much you want to be involved in managing your investments. Fourthly, don’t check your investments so much. If you track the daily movements in the Australian All Ords price index or the US S&amp;P 500, it has been down almost as much as it has been up.</p>
<p>So, day to day it’s pretty much a coin toss as to whether you will get good news or bad. By contrast if you only look at how the share market has gone each month and allow for dividends the historical experience tells us you will only get bad news 35% of the time.</p>
<p>Looking only on a calendar year basis, data back to 1900 indicates that the probability of bad news in the form of a loss slides further to 20% for Australian shares and 27% for US shares. And if you can stretch it out to once a decade positive returns have been seen 100% of the time for Australian shares and 82% of the time for US shares</p>
<p>The less frequently you look the less you will be disappointed and so the lower the chance that a bout of "loss aversion" triggered by a bad news event will lead you to sell at the wrong time. So, try to avoid looking at market updates so regularly. Finally, look for opportunities that bad news throws up.</p>
<p>Periods of share market turbulence after bad news throw up opportunities as such periods push shares into cheap territory. Concluding comment My long-term experience around investing tells me that it’s far more productive to lean into prognostications of financial gloom because most of the time they are wrong and end up just distracting investors from their goals.</p>
<p><strong>DR SHANE OLIVER </strong><em>is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital</em></p>
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Bushfires to coronavirus, how to turn down the noise around investing: Shane Oliver

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<p>Yesterday, the NSW Government announced six months of council rates relief for those who have lost their home or small business in the recent bushfires. </p>
<p>To relieve those impacted by the recent bushfires of financial burden, residents that have lost their homes and small businesses will soon be able to take their council rates notice to a Service NSW centre with the Government will covering the costs. Those that have already paid their rates will receive a refund. </p>
<p>Deputy premier and minister responsible for Disaster Recovery, John Barilaro, and minister for local government, Shelley Hancock, said the funding is part of the NSW Government's commitment to do all it can to help local communities recover and rebuild from the devastating bushfires. </p>
<p>Mr Barilaro says, "Bush fire affected communities will not have to pay rates on a home which has been lost in the fires."</p>
<p>"The last thing our communities need right now is more financial stress, which is why the NSW Government is doing everything to ease the burden by funding council rates and picking up the bill for the clean-up, at no cost to owners," he explains.</p>
<p>"Regional communities, emergency services, volunteers and our farmers have been outstanding throughout the fires, and we need to be as vigilant in recovery as they are in the face of disaster."</p>
<p>Mrs Hancock said the NSW Government will cover the full cost of council rates for the third and fourth quarters of this financial year for residents and farmers who have lost their homes, and business owners whose properties have been destroyed beyond repair by bushfires.</p>
<p>Mrs Hancock syas, "The impact of the bushfires is truly unprecedented with the tragic loss of more than 2, 400 homes in NSW</p>
<p>"That's why the Government will fund council rates relief for anyone who has lost their home or small business in the bushfire crisis."</p>
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Council rates relief for bushfire affected communities

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<p>Catastrophic fires have, for over three months, escalated to unprecedented levels in Australia with many beholding the tragic loss of lives, property, wildlife and livelihoods.</p>
<p>Today, CEO of CoreLogic International, Lisa Claes released a statement concerning recent bushfires in Australia. </p>
<p>"Across the country, people are coming together to support those impacted by these terrible events and we are pleased to let you know that CoreLogic is also making a substantial contribution. We are not only donating to the Australian Red Cross and WIRES to support these efforts, but will also match all employee dollar donations for the bushfire appeal," Ms Claes assures.</p>
<p>"In addition, we would like to acknowledge the significant sacrifices being made by volunteer firefighters across multiple fire zones. As a consequence, CoreLogic employees who are members of the Rural Fire Services are being provided with paid volunteer leave to support their efforts. On top of that, we will also be working closely over the coming months with our community partner Habitat for Humanity Australia, providing employee volunteers to assist with recovery and property clean-up activities in the Cuddlee Creek community in South Australia, where over 85 homes have been lost.</p>
<p>"We have already established a Bushfire Response Team to accelerate a number of initiatives that will help customers impacted. That includes a program to help ensure that our customers (and their customers) receive the assistance they need at this difficult time. All our programs for <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/corelogic-australian-bushfire-support#banking" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">financial institutions</span></a>, <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/corelogic-australian-bushfire-support#insurance" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">insurance companies</span></a>, <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/corelogic-australian-bushfire-support#government" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">government agencies</span></a> and <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/corelogic-australian-bushfire-support#propertyowners" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">property owners</span></a> are outlined on this web page."</p>
<p>CoreLogic offer a free of charge on a one-time basis to financial institutions, insurers and property owners.</p>
<h2>Helping Financial Institutions</h2>
<p>CoreLogic can help identify customer properties that may have been impacted by the bushfires. They can also help find the property's recent estimated value, whether it was listed for sale or rent, and the estimated rebuild cost of the property.</p>
<h2>Helping Insurers</h2>
<p>CoreLogic can help identify customers whose properties may have been impacted which enables insurance organisations to reach out proactively to them and to priorities their inbound enquiries. </p>
<h2>Helping Government Agencies</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/corelogic-australian-bushfire-support#contact_us_form" target="_blank">CoreLogic data</a> can help assist state and federal government agencies by identifying and providing information about those properties that may have been impacted. </p>
<p>They will help government agencies understand population displacement and dislocation, validate relief payment claims, provide economic impact analysis, assist with tax assessments for individuals, businesses or corporations, and identify longer-term health impacts.</p>
<h2>Helping Property Owners</h2>
<p>CoreLogic's can help simplify the task of estimating rebuild costs using their<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://sumsure.cordell.com.au/?_ga=2.200442925.244147514.1579496227-612828265.1579496227#/products/7/profiles/112" target="_blank"> Cordell Sum Sure Calculator</a>. This is an intuitive digital tool that uses CoreLogic property and construction data. It is available as a free-to-use service to help answer pressing concerns regarding bushfire related damagers.</p>
<p>Ms Claes suggests, "For more information regarding our bushfire response, please contact the CoreLogic Customer Call Centre on 1300 734 318, or your client account manager. Alternatively, use the form at the bottom of this page. We are ready to discuss how we can assist you." </p>
<p>Main photo from <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/corelogic-australian-bushfire-support#insurance%20owners" target="_blank">CoreLogic News</a></p>
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Response to Australia's bushfire crisis by CoreLogic

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<p><span>Urban Taskforce CEO Tom Forrest has acknowledged the devastating impacts of the Australian bushfires upon communities, wildlife and property, and praised the generosity of its members in their efforts to support those affected by the drought and by bushfires.</span></p>
<p><span>“Urban Taskfor</span><span>ce members have been generous in making substantial donations as well as offering professional assistance to those struggling in the aftermath of both the drought and the </span><span>bushfires”, Forrest said.</span></p>
<p><span>Larger members have made substantial donations while smaller members have made offers of pro-bono professional advice and assistance.</span></p>
<p><span>Advantaged Care is offering free respite to elderly people affected by the bushfires should they need to seek alternative accommodation arrangements, and Allens is working with Justice Connect to provide free legal help to people and communities affected by the bushfires. </span></p>
<p><span>CityPlan Strategy &amp; Development have also offered their support to the Local Government Bushfire Recovery SupportGroup, providing pro-bono assistance with development assessment, land use and development policy, risk based planning and best practice assessment processes and staff training. Similarly, Group GSA will be involved in pro-bono opportunities to contribute time and resources in helping to rebuild bushfire affected communities.</span></p>
<p><span>So far, a substantial amount have been donated to the Australian Red Cross from Allens, Bates Smart with $20,000, EP Risk, Lendlease with up to $500,000, McDonalds with $500,000, PTW Architects, the GPT Group.</span></p>
<p>La Trobe Financial established a Disaster Relief Package which will <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/finance/109153-la-trobe-financial-to-pay-loan-interest-for-homes-lost-in-the-bushfires-for-a-year" target="_blank">pay loan interest and charges for 12 months</a> for those who lost their homes to the bushfires.</p>
<p><span>Donations have also been made by Woolworths and its customers through The Salvation Army and locals with more than $3 million. </span></p>
<p><span>Crown Resorts and the Packer Family Foundation have donated $5 million to bushfire relief charities.</span></p>
<p><span>The Perich Group have donated $1 million to the NSW Farmers Natural Disaster Relief fund to help rebuild bushfire affected farms and restore local food and fibre production in south east NSW. Similarly, Holdmark Property Group have pledged $1 million to support farmers.</span></p>
<p><span>“These efforts showcase the extent to which the property development sector is an essential and </span><span>positive part of both our economy and society", Forrest said.</span></p>
<p><span>“</span><span>Building construction and related services account for one of the largest sectors in the NSW economy (third largest employment sector after Health and Retail). </span></p>
<p><span>"Property developers take the risk on developing land into housing for our growing population, for developing commercial and industrial buildings to accommodate jobs and employment and for employing hundreds of thousands of tradies, labourers, engineers, architects, planners and urban designers.</span></p>
<p><span>"As the third largest employment sector in the state, we have been greatly affected by the drought and </span><span>the fires. Urban Taskforce members are keen to do everything they can to help”, Forrest said.</span></p>
<p><span>Forrest added that the services being offered by members to assist in the recovery from the bushfires was growing by the day. </span></p>
<p>He encouraged all those in communities affected by the bushfires to visit the <a href="https://www.urbantaskforce.com.au/%20" target="_blank">Urban Taskforce website</a> and see the updated lists of services on offer.</p>
<p><span>“</span><span>The Urban Taskforce extends its support and sympathy to all those directly and indirectly affected by the fires. We thank the many incredible firefighters, volunteers, emergency service workers and individuals for their efforts to save lives, property and wildlife</span><span>”</span><span>, Forrest said.</span></p>
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Property development industry offers support and donations to assist in bushfire recovery

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<p>La Trobe Financial established a Disaster Relief Package which will pay loan interest and charges for 12 months for those who lost their homes to the bushfires.</p>
<p>They will also provide access to interest-free loans to help cover any gap between insurance payouts and the cost of rebuilding, and allow fee-free withdrawals from investments in the La Trobe Australian Credit Fund.</p>
<p>La Trobe Financial President &amp; CEO Greg O’Neill OAM says: “true to our philosophy of others before self, we are determined to look out for our customers and offer meaningful support to those affected through this very challenging time.”</p>
<p>For other customers experiencing hardship because of the bushfires, La Trobe Financial will defer loan repayments for up to 12 months, help with finance on discounted terms to cover property repair costs or support a small business, and make it easier to access investments in the La Trobe Australian Credit Fund without incurring fees.</p>
<p>For customers who are volunteer firefighters, La Trobe Financial will also offer financial help including deferral of home loan repayments for up to six months.</p>
<p>The Disaster Relief Package is in addition to La Trobe Financial’s recent $1 million donation to assist people affected by the bushfires across Australia.</p>
<p>The donation was split between The Salvation Army Disaster Appeal and the Australian Red Cross Disaster Relief and Recovery Fund.</p>
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