Brisbane Market

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The Sydney housing market is starting to slow following more than five years of strong increases in dwelling values.
As the Sydney market slows there could be some upside for other housing markets where capital gains have been more sustainable and rental yields are higher.
Australia’s third largest city, Brisbane, has recently garnered more attention as a candidate for improved housing market conditions.
In this week’s blog we look at the historic relationship between housing market growth in Sydney and Brisbane in order to determine whether the slowdown in Sydney could translate into an acceleration in Brisbane.
 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage1.png" alt="2017-10-09--annualchangeindwellingvalues" width="570" height="198">
The 30 year annual change chart above tends to indicate that after a surge in Sydney dwelling values Brisbane has followed suit thereafter.  
Following Sydney dwelling value growth peaking at 61.7% p.a. in August 1988, Brisbane dwelling value growth peaked at an annual rate of 35.3% in February 1989.  
Annual growth in Sydney dwelling values also peaked in January 2002 at 20.8% with Brisbane’s rate of growth not peaking until December 2003 at 30.7%.  
Keep in mind that outside of these two clear examples, a rise in Sydney value growth has not necessarily been met with a rise in Brisbane (or vice versa).
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage2.png" alt="2017-10-09--sydneydwellingvaluepremiumrelativetobrisbane" width="570" height="198">
  What the growth of Sydney values in 1988 and 2001 did have in common is that they resulted in a significant gap opening between values in Sydney and Brisbane.  
At its peak in August 1988, Sydney dwelling values were typically 104% more than Brisbane dwellings.  
At its height in September 2001, Sydney dwelling values were 107% higher than Brisbane dwelling prices.  
Recently the chart shows that the gap between values in Sydney and Brisbane has increased and at September 2017 the differential was 86%.  
The long-term average premium for Sydney dwellings over Brisbane is 55% indicating that the gap remains above the long-term average.  Interestingly, even taking a shorter time-frame the average gap has been 56% over the past 20 years and a lower 41% over the past decade.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage3.png" alt="2017-10-09--quarterlyinterstatemigrationfromnswtoqld" width="570" height="198">
  Queensland has historically been a popular migration destination for people choosing to leave New South Wales.  
The above chart highlights that following the surge in value growth and the widening of dwelling prices between Sydney and Brisbane, migration from New South Wales to Queensland has typically increased.  
Over the long-term, the average quarterly number of persons migrating from New South Wales to Queensland has been recorded at 12,376 persons.  
Migration from New South Wales to Queensland peaked over the March 1989 quarter at 18,259 persons and then averaged 14,461 persons per quarter from March 1989 to December 1991.  
Migration from New South Wales to Queensland peaked again in December 2002 at 18,129 persons and then averaged 15,392 persons per quarter from December 2002 to September 2004.
As migration from New South Wales to Queensland has recently picked-up, so far it has peaked at a much lower 13,487 persons over the December 2016 quarter which is only 9.0% above the long-term average.  
By comparison the 1989 peak saw migration to Queensland peak at 47.5% above the long-run average and the 2002 peak saw migration peak at 46.5% above the long-run average.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage4.png" alt="2017-10-09--annualchangeinemployment" width="570" height="198">
  Unless those people migrating from New South Wales to Queensland are retirees, employment opportunities must be a key consideration.  
Post the 1987 boom in Sydney, New South Wales employment growth was slowing while it accelerated in Queensland.  
Similarly in the early 2000’s employment growth had been greater in New South Wales than in Queensland however, by June 2001 Queensland’s employment was growing at a faster annual rate than New South Wales’ with Queensland employment growth consistently stronger than New South Wales all the way until January 2008.  
Over this period, dwelling value growth in Brisbane had consistently been stronger than growth in Sydney.  
Looking more recently, New South Wales has consistently recorded stronger annual employment growth than Queensland between September 2014 and March 2017.  Since April 2017, annual employment growth in Queensland has been greater than in New South Wales.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/20174-10-09-blogimage5.png" alt="2017-10-09--unemploymentratetrend" width="570" height="198">
  Although employment growth is important, the unemployment rate is also a consideration.  
Although job creation picked up in Queensland after 1987, Queensland’s unemployment rate was consistently higher than New South Wales’ until October 1991 when it was fairly similar to that of New South Wales.  
By August 1992 Queensland’s unemployment rate fell below New South Wales’ and remained lower until December 1994.  
The New South Wales unemployment rate was then consistently lower than Queensland’s until July 2004 with Queensland’s unemployment rate remaining lower than News South Wales’ from July 2004 until late 2009 (thankyou mining boom!).  
From February 2010 onwards, Queensland is yet to chalk up one month in which its unemployment rate is lower than New South Wales’.  Interestingly though, the gap between the New South Wales and Queensland unemployment rate is currently lower (1.1 basis points) than it was as the Sydney housing market was peaking in August 1988 (1.5 basis points) and January 2002 (1.9 basis points).
The trends presented here would generally suggest that Brisbane could be well positioned for a pick-up in value growth as the Sydney housing market slows.  
Keep in mind though that there have been instances in the past where value growth has surged in Sydney and it hasn’t been followed by a surge in Brisbane, so a lift in Brisbane growth is no certainty.  
A significant gap in the cost of housing between the two cities was evident in both 1989 and 2002 and it also evident currently.  As value growth rose in Brisbane, interstate migration from New South Wales hit levels significantly above the long-term average and although interstate migration is increasing it is yet to hit anything close to those previous highs.  Employment growth is accelerating in Queensland which may encourage an increasing number of people from New South Wales to Queensland and the differential in unemployment rate is smaller than it was in 1989 and 2002.
One other consideration is whether the same magnitude of people leaving New South Wales for Queensland will actually settle in Brisbane.  
Both the Gold and Sunshine Coasts are much bigger cities in their own right than they were in 1989 and 2002 plus connectivity with Brisbane is much better than it was previously, so perhaps these migrants will be more inclined to settle on one of the Coasts rather than Brisbane.  
Over the 12 months to September 2017, Brisbane dwelling values have increased by 2.9% while values on the Gold Coast are 5.4% higher over the year and Sunshine Coast values are 6.6%. 
In my opinion, before we can call a coming surge in Brisbane dwelling values we are going to need to see both more evidence that migrants are settling in Brisbane rather than the Gold and Sunshine Coasts.  Migration from New South Wales to Queensland is going to have to lift by a lot more than it has to-date.  Finally, Queensland will also need to see a sustained improvement in employment growth to lure more people across the border.
 
Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Sydney housing market starting to slow: will Brisbane benefit?

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Brisbane shows how complex markets can be and illustrates the folly of generalisation. 
My winter survey of sales activity and prices reveals that the number of rising markets across the Brisbane metro area is matched by the number of declining/danger areas – and in between are the majority of suburbs which are consistency or plateau markets.
Brisbane’s data shows the impact of the Covid-19 shutdown while also displaying a good level of resilience. The number of suburbs with rising sales activity (28) is lower than the Autumn 2020 survey (37), but better than at the same time last year (24).
There continues to be a high level of consistency markets (50 suburbs, down slightly from 56 in the previous survey). The existence of 28 growth suburbs and 50 consistency suburbs shows a solid degree of resistance to the virus crisis period. But also significant is the 113 plateau markets (suburbs where sales activity has dropped below the previous levels), the highest in three years.
Brisbane also has 21 suburbs ranked as declining markets, slightly fewer than in the previous quarterly survey (23) and substantially lower than six months ago (32). There are also seven danger markets, ones where sales activity and prices are down and vacancies are uncomfortably high.
The Brisbane market was poised for a long overdue boom before Covid-19 struck. As we wrote in the previous edition: “Every statistic that matters depicts uplift in the Brisbane market and prices are expected to rise in 2020. Many commentators have forecast a Brisbane boom in recent years, though many were simply assuming that the Queensland capital would follow the lead of Melbourne and Sydney. Brisbane, however, has lacked the core growth drivers that boosted markets in the two biggest cities.
“But, increasingly, growth parameters are lining up for Brisbane. Population data is favourable, the affordability comparison is helpful, surveyed investors say they are targeting Brisbane – and the major piece of the puzzle previously missing, infrastructure spending, is starting to happen.”
Because of those factors, we believe Brisbane will return to strength quickly in the recovery-from-corona phase.
As we often find with these surveys, there is particular strength in the northern suburbs of Brisbane – the Brisbane North precinct and the Moreton Bay LGA jointly account for half of the 28 suburbs ranked as rising markets. The southside has many of the struggling markets and Brisbane’s inner-city provides all of the danger markets.
In our analysis we divide the sprawling Brisbane City LGA into five precincts (inner, north, south, east and west) while the more distant parts of the metro area are covered by the LGAs of Ipswich, Logan, Redland and Moreton Bay – a total of nine precincts. 
The Brisbane North precinct and its neighbour Moreton Bay Region are the standouts, as they have been in our surveys in the past.
The Moreton Bay Region LGA has regularly been the best-performing Brisbane market, boosted by affordability, good infrastructure and proximity to employment nodes (including a new university campus). And its status has been enhanced in this survey, with the number of rising suburbs increasing from eight to nine. This LGA also has 10 suburbs ranked as consistency markets, which overall creates a strong result for this precinct in a virus-impacted market.
Leading suburbs include Petrie (quarterly sales of 43-47-53-69-66), Strathpine (65-79-81-83) and Banksia Beach (46-54-67-68-70).
Brisbane North has 5 suburbs classified as rising markets, 9 ranked as consistency markets and none ranked as declining or danger markets. There are two particular clusters with strongly-performing suburbs: the inner north (which includes suburbs like Newmarket, Windsor, Stafford and Kedron), and the north-east precinct (which includes Nudgee, Nundah, Northgate and Wavell Heights). 
Ashgrove, with quarterly sales of 54-57-60-71-74, is typical of the suburbs with rising trajectories. Zillmere (42-47-49-56-62-64) is another of the growth markets.
The other standout market to emerge in this survey is the Brisbane-east precinct, which has five growth suburbs, seven consistency markets and no locations ranked as declining or danger markets. Leading locations include Wynnum West (54-67-74-80) and Murarrie (22-28-29-35-47-51).
The Brisbane-inner precinct is a confusion of suburbs with contrasting rankings: the 22 ranked suburbs include 2 rising, 17 plateau, 1 consistency, 2 declining and 7 danger. The danger markets (Albion, Bowen Hills, Fortitude Valley, Kelvin Grove, South Brisbane, West End and Woolloongabba) are those where sales activity has dropped markedly, prices are down and vacancy rates are high – particularly with a recent virus-related surge in empty apartments in the inner-city areas.
Logan City in the far south of the Brisbane metro area continues to struggle. It has 12 suburbs with declining sales activity. But there are also signs of life, with two rising suburbs and five consistency suburbs.
Brisbane is split almost 50-50 between markets where prices are up in annual terms and those where prices have fallen in the past 12 months: 52% of apartment markets have recorded annual growth and 44% of house markets have risen, providing an overall result of 46% growth markets and 54% with falling prices.
In most cases, whether rising or falling, the change has been minor (less than 5% in the past year).
Leading suburbs for growth in their median house prices include Coorparoo (16%), Morningside (13%), St Lucia (15%) and Windsor (22%), but the market leader is Fig Tree Pocket, where the median price has increased 32% to $1.18 million. 
Among the unit markets, the best for annual growth in median prices have been Bulimba (23%, Mango Hill (13%), Alderley (12% and Annerley (11%).
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="mailto:%20&lt;script%20type='text/javascript'&gt;%20%5Cn%20&lt;/script&gt;&lt;script%20type='text/javascript'&gt;%20%20&lt;/script&gt;This%20email%20address%20is%20being%20protected%20from%20spambots.%20You%20need%20JavaScript%20enabled%20to%20view%20it.%20&lt;script%20type='text/javascript'&gt;%20%20&lt;/script&gt;"></a><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Brisbane real estate a mix of growth, consistent, plateauing and declining suburbs: Hotspotting’s Terry Ryder

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Brisbane suburbs affected by the 2011 flood are outperforming the rest of the city, new research shows.
RiskWise Property Research said that of the 20 suburbs affected by floods, 19 (or 95%) have outperformed the rest of the city in terms of housing prices.
The location of these suburbs continues to make them attractive to buyers, says RiskWise CEO Doron Peleg.
“After the 2011 floods the perception among property buyers was these areas would be looked at negatively and prices would fall, or at least deliver very poor capital growth” Peleg said.
“But our research has shown the reality is completely different and the demand for them has eclipsed the negative perception.
“This is because these high-flood areas are truly well located on the river which is in high demand.
“Also, statistically floods like those in 2011 are a once-in-a-50-year event and that makes these homes a risk people are willing to accept.”
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/5/Brisbane%20Flood%20Prone%20Area%20v2.0.jpg" alt="">
Peleg said many of these areas are subject to rezoning which makes them attractive to developers.
He said when considering buying property in a flood area purchasers should do a risk assessment of the suburb, the type of property they want to buy as well as what the risk for the specific property was.
“Also, that's why we have insurance companies. And while they have revised their product offerings and premiums, which no doubt will be quite high, it is still possible to get insurance.”
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Suburbs most affected by Brisbane floods outperforming rest of city

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Fund manager Clarence Property has purchased The Zone shopping centre at Underwood in south-east Brisbane.
Paying $31.25 million, The Zone was purchased at a 7.85% yield.
Its anchor retailers include OfficeWorks, Rebel Sport, Good Price Pharmacy and Best Friends Pet Warehouse.
It will be within Clarence Property's flagship unlisted Westlawn Property Trust which has more than $250 million in assets between Yamba and the Sunshine Coast.
Its target asset allocation is about 30 to 45% retail, especially high-yield neighbourhood shopping centres in growth regions.
It started in Grafton some two decades ago, expanding its strong presence in northern New South Wales into south-east Queensland.
The Zone is a sub-regional large format shopping centre 16 kilometres south of the Brisbane CBD.
It is made up of four buildings of about 11,000 square metres on a 2.85-hectare site on the corner of Compton and Kingston roads.
It opened in 2005.
CBRE's Joe Tynan, Peter Rossi, Michael Hedger and Nick Willis negotiated the sale of the property for a private Queensland investor.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Clarence Property secure The Zone shopping centre at Brisbane's Underwood

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Realestate.com.au chief economist Nerida Conisbee says only about 10 per cent of residential sales in Queensland utilise the auction process. 
“Brisbane’s not a big auction market anyway so it won’t have the same impact we’ll see in Melbourne and Sydney,” Ms Conisbee told realestate.com.au.
Realestate.com.au has launched <a href="https://help.realestate.com.au/hc/en-us/articles/360001177803-How-to-add-a-video-or-a-3D-tour-to-a-listing" target="_blank">virtual tours of properties</a> listed on its site to help home hunters.
"To continue to view properties online, it introduced digital inspections showing all the features.
“For people looking to buy, the bigger deal will be not being able to go into the home,” Ms Conisbee said.
There are two main ways of going about adding a video or a <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://help.realestate.com.au/hc/en-us/articles/360000354766">three-dimensional tour</a> to a listing.
The first being via an <a href="https://help.realestate.com.au/hc/en-us/articles/115004480103-Search-a-listing-in-Agent-Admin" target="_blank">Agent Admin</a> where you will need to find the listing. When you have found the listing, through the 'Images and Copy' tab, scroll down to 'Links'. This is where you can add video links to the Video URL field, or Online Tour 1 field for 3D tours. 
A video or 3D tour can also be added via your third-party listing uploader where you would have to update the listing directly through its portal. 
There are a range of 3D tour companies that can be embedded in the image carousel of Realestate.com.au listings. For instance, Scann3D, Ticketyview, DIAKRIT, Augment Space, Google Tour Creator, Virtual Tours Creator, CampaignTrack and BWRM. 
 
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Brisbane won't be as affected by onsite auction ban as Sydney and Melbourne

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Commercial property sales in Brisbane's fringes increased in the past three months but sales figures dropped, according to latest research from CoreLogic.
The last three months to the beginning of August 2016 recorded 24 sales for a total of $195.3 million, with $3.9 million for commercial, $3.2 million for commercial strata, $5.3 million for retail, $4.2 million for retail strata and $178.7 million for other, according to the latest Commercial Market Update – Brisbane Fringe Cityscope.
In comparison, the last three months to the beginning of May 2016 recorded 44 sales for a total of $139.1 million, with $56.3 million for commercial, $3.2 million for commercial strata, $54.5 million for retail, $4.6 million for retail strata and $13 million for other. The 12 months leading up to early August 2016 recorded 136 sales for a total of more than $772.4 million, over $107 million more than the same time last year.
<a href="/images/2016/08/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-14%20at%206.30.32%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/08/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-14%20at%206.30.32%20PM.png" alt="">
Together, the top three sales recorded this quarter total over $183 million:
<ul>
<li>The 900 Ann Street development in Fortitude Valley has been presold for $169.82 million to Charter Hall Direct Office Fund and Charter Hall Prime Office Fund. The sale represented an initial yield of 6.50% on passing income of $11,038,300. The sale was negotiated by Seb Turnbull and Geoff McIntyre of JLL Brisbane. 900 Ann Street will comprise a 15-storey office building with ground floor retail/restaurant space.</li>
<li>The Tivoli, 52 Costin Street, Fortitude Valley, a single-storey Art Deco style building originally built in 1917. Bought for $8.3 million by Parkedge Holdings Pty Ltd as trustee for SBS N02 Trust. Hunter Higgins and Pat George of Colliers International Brisbane negotiated the sale in conjunction with Michael Gard and Nick Spiro of Cushman &amp; Wakefield (Qld).</li>
<li>The GPO Hotel, 740 Ann Street, Fortitude Valley, was sold for $5.25 million to 740 Ann Street Pty Ltd. The sale represented an initial yield of 6.5% on a passing income of $341,106 (net). Daniel Dragicevich, Glenn Price and Darren Collins of CBRE Hotels and CBRE Brisbane negotiated the sale.</li>
</ul>
<a href="/images/2016/08/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-14%20at%206.14.59%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="/images/2016/08/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-14%20at%206.14.59%20PM.png" alt="">
Properties for sale include:
<ul>
<li>134 Brunswick Street, Fortitude Valley – a 430 sqm vacant block of land. For sale with an asking price of $1.7 million; agent, Richardson &amp; Wrench Commercial Brisbane North (Kenneth King).</li>
<li>211 Leichhardt Street, Spring Hill – a St Pauls on Leichhardt Tavern, recently reconfigured for office use. For sale by private treaty in August 2016; agents, Chesterton International (Jeff Dolan) and CBRE (Darren Collins).</li>
<li>123-127 Gotha Street, Fortitude Valley – a three-storey office building with basement car parking. For sale by private treaty; agent, JLL Brisbane (Christian Sandstrom and Sam Bryne). The property was originally advertised with a net income of $861,378 per annum (as at 1 Nov 2015) with fixed annual increases of 4%.</li>
</ul>
Properties under due diligence:
<ul>
<li>Kings Row Office Park, 40-52 McDougall Street, Milton – a mixture of office buildings ranging up to six-storeys. Due diligence is currently being undertaken; agent, CBRE (Bruce Baker and Flint Davidson) and JLL Brisbane (Seb Turnbull and Geoff McIntyre).</li>
<li>2-4 Dorsey Street, Milton – a two-storey weatherboard building. Due diligence is currently being conducted; agent, Blue Commercial (Tony Pagano).</li>
<li>505 St Pauls Terrace, Brisbane – Green Square South Tower, a four-storey office building with ground floor retail space. Due diligence is currently being undertaken; agent, Colliers International Tom Barr, Don MacKenzie</li>
</ul>
Cityscope covers 28 predominantly capital city CBD markets across Australia and New Zealand, providing a rich level of property level data including building attributes, tenancy detail, sales and ownership.
 
 
 
 
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prateek24-ezbwHMbNAk

Commercial property sales in Brisbane's fringes rise, but deal count down: CoreLogic

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Anyone hoping 2017 will prove to be “The Year of the Brissie” will probably be disappointed, according to HTW’s February 2017 update.
The valuation firm says the biggest fault line continues to be employment-fuelled interstate migration.
“Truth be told, we can’t see anything on the economic horizon to suggest southern buyers will start heading here in droves,” the report says.
“That’s not to say we should be ignored – on the contrary, Brisbane is one of the country’s most forgiving capital city markets.
“There are very few disappointed long-term buyers in our sunshine state’s big city, provided they stuck with the fundamentals and bought the right property in the right position at the right price.”
HTW says there are opportunities in Brisbane that will deliver a result after a couple of market cycles.
Inner-city property continues to be the strongest performer and the firm says if you’re hoping to get into suburbs such as Paddington, Bulimba, or Woolloongabba, don’t expect to find much under $700,000 as a low buy-in for a modest detached house.
A four bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-paddington-124628702" target="_blank">30 Prince Street</a>, Paddington (above) has been listed for $1,279,000.
Similarly a three bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-paddington-124743018" target="_blank">47 Ewart Street</a>, Paddington (below) has been listed for $829,000.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/20/47%20Ewart%20Street.jpg" alt="">
“While these areas will continue to offer great potential, make sure you seek good quality property with strong tenant appeal for the best long-term results.
“Middle ring addresses are experiencing some capital gains fuelled by the affordability wave, and steady growth over 2017 is likely in locations such as Kedron and Wavell Heights.
“You’re still in the $600,000-plus price points in order to buy something decent, but as long as the land size and position are appealing, then there’s solid real estate to be had.”
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Brisbane market set for another disappointing year: HTW

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One of the surprise performers over the past few months has been Brisbane’s fringe suburbs according to HTW’s February 2017 update.
The valuation firm says there is a continued shift towards house and land packages – particularly from investors scared off by the threat of a looming unit oversupply.
“While no-one is calling a boom for this once very sleepy sector, activity has been strong,” the firm says.
“Our team are also noting gains in the western corridor towards the Ipswich region as facilities and infrastructure continue to attract business and residents.
“Some of the bigger estates in this patch are seeing 30 to 40 land sales per month – and most developers would call this a roaring success.”
HTW says this is in contrast to the prestige property which operates outside the constraints impacting other price points due to many high-end buyers being cashed up and immune from interest rate variations.
“When the right buyer meets the perfect property, record prices can result.
“We will probably see a few more of these benchmark sales occur in 2017.” 
A three bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-qld-stafford+heights-124462038" target="_blank">Stafford Heights </a>(above) was recently sold for $553,000.
Similarly a four bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-qld-mount+gravatt+east-124536170" target="_blank">5 Boambillee Street</a>, Mount Gravatt East (below) was sold for $775,000.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/20/5%20Boambillee%20Street.jpg" alt="">
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