Brexit

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I was reading a piece this week at MacroBusiness where it was pointed out that it has been 24 years since we went through the global recession.
Then eight years later we went into the Tech Wreck, then  eight years after that we hit the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and now  eight years on we have hit Brexit – or as Australians will soon call it Bex – it (as it will probably cause some major headaches.)
Whilst Australia continues to post some very positive data, we need to pay closer attention to the data post June 30 as we now enter a period of uncertainty. Having said that, this should also be viewed as an exciting time as it is now clear that every eight years businesses need to adapt and recalibrate in order to survive.
One statistic we can’t hide from when the GFC hit in 2007 is that debt has grown much faster than GDP in every country. Some may say that this is an economic consequence as globally cash rates have been crashing down where in Australia we sit at a record low 1.75 per cent. Furthermore, many commentators are now stating that the cash rate in Australia will come down even more as a direct result of Brexit.
Whenever an economy reaches that financial standoff, and investors hate uncertainty, we need to be overly protective of investors as they are a particular and crucial economy driver. So there needs to be closer scrutiny as to why the ALP want to change the Negative Gearing goal posts, which will definitely drive up rents, and why the NSW Government wants to drive foreign investors from our property markets with their 4 per cent surcharge plus a 0.75 per cent land tax surcharge on residential real estate only.
Makes one seriously question exactly where governments expect the new buyers to evolve from? The real estate industry is hearing foreign investors are moving away from our markets in droves. Once again we need to be mindful of Brexit and life and results after June 30. Australia is now all but guaranteed that lending will now tighten, which is a good thing, however if we cast our minds back to the GFC we kept hearing two words – “green shoots”.
The sad part about emerging “green shoots” is that governments immediately see them as a new form of taxation – this in turn will bring about market stagnation which is the last thing our economy needs.
Having said that, existing property markets, otherwise known as the established household markets, are now 60 per cent down when compared to property listings two years ago. This is good news for established houses – we are now seeing record low listings which only strengthens the markets. For example, when I go back five years for Mosman houses you will see the pattern that has emerged.
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<li>30 June 2011 – 97 houses on the market in Mosman</li>
<li>30 June 2012 – 80 houses on the market in Mosman</li>
<li>30 June 2013 – 68 houses on the market in Mosman</li>
<li>30 June 2014 – 63 houses on the market in Mosman</li>
<li>30 June 2015 – 43 houses on the market in Mosman</li>
<li>30 June 2016 – 42 houses on the market in Mosman</li>
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What this tells us, and we should point out that these results are reflective across Sydney, is that since the GFC homeowners are taking advantage of record low cash rates by paying down debt faster. On the flip side they are renovating over selling as they see no economies of scale in donating a few hundred thousand dollars to our NSW Government in the form of Stamp Duty. In other words, the Stamp Duty component is then redirected to home renovations.
The NSW Government will recognise very quickly that it has a cash flow problem when the effect of the new surcharge stamp duty and the already declining established markets see the property market transactions coming to an abrupt halt. Don’t be surprised to see a total back-flip with the foreign buyer surcharges but not the land tax.
As for the established household markets the NSW Government should look at the amount of stamp duty previously paid on the past acquisition and give that household a 33 per cent deduction from the next stamp duty so long as that household has been in that property between five and ten years.
In business you offer incentives – it’s a shame governments struggle with the concept of that word.
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 36
Number of houses on the market last week – 48
Number of houses on the market this week – 42
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 33
Number of apartments on the market last week – 41
Number of apartments on the market this week – 33
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 3
Number of houses on the market last week – 11
Number of houses on the market this week – 7
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 16
Number of apartments on the market last week – 18
Number of apartments on the market this week – 17
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 2
Number of houses on the market last week – 10
Number of houses on the market this week – 10
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 39
Number of apartments on the market last week – 22
Number of apartments on the market this week – 23
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. 
He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000.
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Time for governments to roll out incentives: Robert Simeon

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Zoopla, the UK property listing website, has seen a record number of visits and leads in the last 12 months, despite continued uncertainty on Brexit.
Over the 12 months to the end of September, Zoopla Property Group (ZPG) said there were 648 million visits and 56 million leads.
Its property division saw revenue rise by 41% to £122.3 million, with the number of member agents jumping by 6% to 14,775 branches.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/30/zoopla.jpg" alt="">
Overall ZPG – whose business includes the comparison website uSwitch – saw revenue up 24%, to £244.5 million. However net debt increased to £191.5 million as a result of acquisitions. Statutory profit for the year was up 2% after acquisition costs and share-based payments.
Its acquisitions in the year included Hometrack, ExpertAgent and Ravensworth.
ZPG founder and CEO Alex Chesterman told Eye that the company were delighted to have delivered another year of record performance across the business.
“Our property division performed very well, driven by strong demand for our additional products, further migration of our software partners to cloud-based products and a continuation of returning portal partners.”
The company said it has grown its headcount by 20% and now employs 882 staff.
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UK property listing website Zoopla sees record traffic despite Brexit uncertainty

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GUEST OBSERVER
Uncertainty about future policy decisions is often identified as major drag on a country’s economy.
Uncertainty about interest rate movements, for example, may see households postpone their consumption, and entrepreneurs wait and see before investing in a business. As a result, aggregate demand naturally weakens, and the economy slows down. 
But how relevant is uncertainty, really? 
Economists need measures of uncertainty to quantify its impact on the business cycle of a country. A trio of US based economists - Scott Baker (Northwestern University), Nicholas Bloom (Stanford University), and Steven Davis (University of Chicago) recently developed an index of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) for a variety of countries, including Australia. 
To create the index, they select country-specific newspapers and perform a search for keywords that are associated with the economy, policy decisions, and uncertainty surrounding such decisions. To the extent that newspapers offer information on perceptions of uncertainty by households and entrepreneurs in that country, this index can be fruitfully used to assess the macroeconomic consequences of spikes in uncertainty. 
The graph below depicts the evolution of the Australian EPU since 1997. 
<a href="/images/2016/11/03/image-20161031-15821-1rstzhw.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/03/image-20161031-15821-1rstzhw.png" alt="">
Monthly data from Australian newspapers (Times and Financial Times). Data to July 2016. www.policyuncertainty.com, Author provided
Spikes in this index are mostly associated to external events such as 9/11, the second Gulf War, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers due to the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, the US debt ceiling dispute, and more recently, Brexit. 
Domestic political events also increase the value of the index. Some of the jumps in this EPU index are significant, the largest one corresponding to the Brexit referendum in June 2016. The researchers interpret these spikes as jumps in uncertainty over the policy response of the Reserve Bank of Australia and/or the Treasury to these external and internal events. 
<h2>But Australia’s economy remains strong…</h2>
In spite of these fluctuations in uncertainty, however, not much has been going on in the Australian business cycle. 
The last official recession in Australia occurred in the early 1990s. Recent figures point to a yearly growth rate of Australia’s real GDP of 3.3%, much larger than that of most industrialised countries in the world. 
And Australia’s future is reasonably bright. According to the Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe:
"Domestic demand is expected to strengthen gradually as the drag on our economy from the decline in mining investment comes to an end. […] Some pick-up in wages and prices could then be expected. In addition, commodity prices, after having declined over the preceding four years, have increased this year. If sustained, this will boost national income and falls in petrol prices will no longer be having a significant effect on headline inflation."
Recent research conducted by RBA economists makes use of econometric models suited to isolate the role of uncertainty and its impact on Australia’s real activity.
Such research finds uncertainty exerts a negative but fairly small effect on domestic investment and employment growth. 
So, why hasn’t uncertainty affected Australia’s economy much? 
In work conducted with a pool of researchers based at the Melbourne Institute, I found that jumps in uncertainty are particularly harmful for a country’s growth if they hit a country already experiencing a downturn. 
The “uncertainty-recession” multiplier – the negative effects on the overall production of a country due to jumps in uncertainty occurring during a recession – is found to be much larger than the “uncertainty-expansion” multiplier (the negative effects when a country is in a boom). 
Intuitively, a reduction in confidence (which is akin to an increase in uncertainty) is likely to more severely affect households and entrepreneurs when a slowdown in economic activity is already underway. 
Committing to purchase a car or invest in a new machine can be very costly if economic conditions worsen in future. Reselling a car to pay for rent, clothing or food would likely turn out to be a capital loss, more than a capital gain. And why should entrepreneurs buy a new machine during a recession characterised by high uncertainty? Better to wait until the smoke clears. 
On the other hand, during an economic boom any effects of jumps in uncertainty are likely to be (at least) partly offset by expectations of high returns from investment. This means there may not necessarily be a reduction in how optimistic households are, or their consumption.
Monetary policy may also help explain why jumps in uncertainty may be more relevant in other countries than in Australia. Reductions in short-term interest rates can alleviate the negative effects of jumps in uncertainty for the economy by reducing the cost of borrowing. This supports investment by firms and household consumption, helping the country maintain a solid real GDP growth rate. 
However, decisions over consumption and investment are likely to become less dependent on interest rates when economic conditions are severe and people in the economic system prefer to save for precautionary reasons. 
And countries facing near zero or negative interest rates are likely to experience more severe effects of an uncertainty shock due to the inability of the central bank to lower borrowing costs enough to sustain the economy.
Australia’s growth has been reasonably solid even during the global financial crisis. And it is certainly true that the RBA has gradually decreased the cash rate over the years to offer support to the Australian economy. However, with a cash rate currently set at 1.5%, the RBA still has room for a reduction of borrowing costs if required. 
In the absence of a recession or near zero interest rates, it is then not a surprise that uncertainty shocks have not caused major problems for the Australian economy for the last two decades. 
All good, then? Well, as long as growth stays solid, yes. The best way policymakers can tame uncertainty and its effects is to keep designing policies aimed at maintaining our growth at a reasonable level.
Efrem Castelnuovo is principal research fellow, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research - associate professor, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Melbourne and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/efrem-castelnuovo-145615" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Why Brexit and the spectre of President Trump aren’t hurting Australia’s economy

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GUEST OBSERVER
Britain’s vote to leave the EU on 23rd June 2016 and the subsequent political and constitutional turmoil that followed in its wake, introduced a very large dose of uncertainty into investment markets not only in the UK and the EU, but globally and so changed both the sum total and distribution of risk dramatically. 
While some markets have realised that this perception of risk was overdone in certain sectors, and have recovered markedly, others remain subdued or have rallied only moderately. Some markets such as gold, the Yen and US dollar have strengthened signi cantly while Sterling, Euros and UK stocks, particularly REITs and construction, are still down (see Figure 1). 
Unlike these assets, there is no real- time trading data in directly owned real estate so it will not be possible to precisely assess the impact of Brexit in either pricing or turnover terms for at least a few months but it is possible to look at the characteristics of property against other assets to begin to understand its potential positioning.
<a href="/images/2016/07/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-29%20at%208.51.35%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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To do this, we consider in this note not only the key qualities of real estate in relation to other asset classes but also the relative position of different geographies. The following sections look at real estate in relation to: 
1. Interest rates 2. Exchange rates 3. Geopolitical and cyclical risk 
The key themes that emerge are: 
Globally, real estate will increasingly be sought after as an income-producing investment, with decreasing emphasis on capital growth, particularly where bond yields are low or have even turned negative. 
The role of property in providing a safe store of wealth in ‘safe haven’, secure title, jurisdictions will come to the fore although this will be tempered by currency risk in places where currency may move down further against the investor currency. 
A focus on real estate occupier fundamentals, and their impact on rental returns and prospects for rental growth, is inevitable and may present investment opportunities over coming months. 
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Buying opportunities will be most apparent for those with large war-chests and in dollar- denominated or Yen currencies who were already waiting for cyclical buying opportunities in some fully valued markets. This activity will be tempered by fear of economic downturns but, again, the longer- term nature of real estate investment will come to the fore.
Leveraged investors will be less prominent and opportunistic and unconventional investors with cash will be the most active globally. This may mean a larger proportion of private investors once again active in the market.
<a href="/images/2016/07/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-29%20at%208.52.48%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/07/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-29%20at%208.52.48%20AM.png" alt="">
 
Interest rates and yields 
In the face of rising global risk (and in the expectation of Bank of England base rate cuts), there appears to have been a ight to safety in the form of government bonds. At the end of June, the UK joined Japan and Germany in experiencing short-term negative bond rates (see Figure 2). 
Expectations before the referendum were that UK and US base rates would start to move out in the near future. Fears in some fully valued markets were that rental growth would not keep pace. With expectations once again that base rates will stay lower for longer, or even drop, property yields have longer to move out and are more likely to do so through rental growth rather than capital contraction. 
When the opportunity cost of money turns negative, any income- producing asset must start to have particular attractions. This potentially puts real estate into a new and different class for as long as the majority of tenants continue to pay rent. Under these circumstances, we expect fully let properties of all use types and classes with low void rates in deep markets to remain an essential part of any well-balanced investment portfolio. 
However, we expect this also means that the fundamentals and the future prospects of both the market and the property will be carefully scrutinised by investors before purchase.
<a href="/images/2016/07/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-29%20at%208.53.52%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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When the world is searching for income, investors are likely to be looking for both quality AND value. 
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Exchange rates 
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UK and European property has become signi cantly cheaper for US dollar and related currencies and especially for holders of Japanese Yen. 
We do not think these currency changes will give every dollar buyer a desire to buy UK and European real estate but it does mean that investment buyers will become increasingly focused on the fundamentals of yield levels and rental growth prospects. Real estate will look good value where these are present, particularly as expectations of more global volatility rise. The world is faced with further UK, US and European political change and elections, to cite just one element of risk, for example.
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The credit rating of the UK was instantly downgraded on the 24th June when the referendum results were known and sterling plummeted against most other currencies, even the euro which also suffered devaluation against the US dollar.
Currency volatility has added to the risks of placing investments in Euros or sterling for the moment but also offers opportunities for those holding US dollars, other dollar- pegged currencies and Yen to buy assets more cheaply. Figure 3 shows how currencies have moved since the eve of the referendum. 
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UK and European property has become significantly cheaper for US dollar and related currencies and especially for holders of Japanese Yen. We do not think these currency changes will give every dollar buyer a desire to buy UK and European real estate but it does mean that investment buyers will become increasingly focused on the fundamentals of yield levels and rental growth prospects. Real estate will look good value where these are present, particularly as expectations of more global volatility rise. The world is faced with further UK, US and European political change and elections, to cite just one element of risk, for example. 
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Geopolitical and cyclical risk
Long before the Brexit vote, some degree of geopolitical risk related to the Eurozone seems to have already been priced into European real estate markets. Prime of ce investors at the end of last year, for example, were buying London on the same level of net effective yield, adjusted for bond rates, as other major world cities like New York and Hong Kong while Eurozone cities such as Paris, Frankfurt and Brussels had not seen the same degree of yield compression and some were being priced on the same risk-adjusted net effective yields as Chengdu and Manila (see Figure 4). 
Yields have since moved in signi cantly in many European cities but some global investors' appetite for Euro denominated assets in a region of political uncertainty may have been somewhat impaired compared to other world regions. Global markets appear to think that the EU is not out of the woods yet. 
Conclusion 
In the very early days of global post Brexit reaction, and indeed in the days preceding it, stock market volatility has increased dramatically. Meanwhile, yields on lower-risk government bonds – even UK ones, have moved in, not out since the referendum. The search for safety is still on and the prospects for negative interest rates seems to have increased. 
There is still appetite from global investors to put their money somewhere. It is becoming increasingly difficult to nd asset classes and sectors which offer stable incomes and stability or safe haven status. The price of gold, for example, rose by 6.4%, from US$1,253/ounce to US$1,333 over the four days to June 27th. Some other real assets, particularly real estate, may look only slightly less attractive to certain investors, particularly those seeking income as well as diversi cation.
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There is a point, especially in countries with negative interest rates, like Japan, when the yield available from real estate in countries with secure tenure and socially safe environments and transparent markets looks compelling, despite increased risk and volatility. This is especially the case for cash investors seeking mid and long-term income streams. Recent currency strength, especially if it is expected to be temporary, makes the purchase of sound Sterling or Euro denominated rental income look cheap.
While expectations of economic growth may be receding in certain quarters, some cities and some countries are likely to do better than others and it is the most stable, high yielding sectors in safe jurisdictions that investors will increasingly be looking for. 
Performance will be found, as always, in real estate locations where there is steady demand from growing populations, security of title, market transparency, limited supply plus long-term economic and growth prospects. Investors are likely to be looking for all these quality factors but looking for value too in the form of higher yields. Returns will be further enhanced in places where the currency strengthens over time so that income returns to foreign currency investors are improved. 
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Yolanda Barnes is director, World Research at Savills and can be contacted <a href="https://www.savills.com" target="_blank">here</a>.
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The Brexit impact on global real estate: Yolande Barnes

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GUEST OBSERVER
The departure of Britain from the Eurozone took most pundits by surprise. 
Reviewing past events, we know that markets do not like surprises. The bookmakers expected the occurrence of this event to be rare and global markets are now feeling the immediate aftermath of the result. 
The local property market will not be immune to this. BREXIT has been resisted by the wealthy and educated as these graphs from The Guardian show.
<a href="/images/2016/07/08/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-08%20at%204.24.59%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/07/08/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-08%20at%204.24.59%20PM.png" alt="">
 
Secret Agent feels that BREXIT could create a bigger hit to the high end property market in Australia than other sections of the market in the short term. 
While auction results after BREXIT were generally robust, we are likely to witness: 
Subdued auction results at the higher end of the property market as participants sit on their hands to see what happens. * The commercial market tighten as sophisticated investors try to interpret how this might impact their investments. 
Tighter credit conditions (lending) could result if major banks see an increase in offshore funding costs. The major banks each experienced a 3 - 5% decline on the day of BREXIT. 
A further rate cut by the RTBA will become more likely. The yield curve, which is perhaps the best predictor of interest rates indicates further cuts in the short term (see Figure 1). 
One counterintuitive aspect could be an increase in foreign capital to Australia's property market as Australia retains its safe haven status. This could be a medium term by-product, especially if our federal election delivers a clear outcome. 
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PAUL OSBORNE is managing director of buyers' advocate <a href="https://secretagent.com.au/" target="_blank">Secret Agent</a>.
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Brexit impact on Australian property: Paul Osborne

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The Brexit result in the United Kingdom, coupled with additional real estate taxes to be levied on foreign buyers in NSW and Victoria, will likely make Perth more attractive to overseas investors, according to leading real estate group Raine &amp; Horne.
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Paul Curran, principal of Raine &amp; Horne Rockingham Beach, believes the decision by the UK to leave the European Union following the referendum will prove to be good news for Western Australian property markets.
“The combination of a lower Australian dollar, property affordability and Perth’s proximity to Asia is already a plus for foreign investors,” said Curran.
“The decision by the English to leave the EU has also created financial market instability, which will encourage more foreign investors to seek safer asset havens such as Western Australian real estate.”
Curran said the so-called Brexit vote followed hot on the heels of the decisions by the NSW and Victorian state governments to hike up stamp duty imposts on foreign buyers.
The NSW government has imposed a 4% stamp duty surcharge on the purchase of residential property by foreign purchasers that commenced from Budget day, June 21, and a 0.75% land tax surcharge on residential real estate owned by foreign persons commencing in the 2017 land tax year.
As of this month, Victoria will have a 7% foreign investor surcharge on residential stamp duty and 1.5% surcharge on some land tax.
Curran said the new taxes will encourage foreign buyers to consider property markets such as Rockingham Beach longer-term, where it’s possible to secure quality real estate, which is priced well below the median prices in Melbourne and Sydney.
In Perth, the median dwelling price is $506,000, according to CoreLogic, compared to $782,000 in Sydney and $590,000 in Melbourne. In the city’s south west, median house prices in Rockingham are $448,000 and $330,000 for apartments.
“It is early days for the Brexit decision, and foreign buyers are just starting to absorb the longer-term ramifications of these additional taxes in the eastern states,” said Curran.
“Excluding the new taxes and the Brexit result, we expect to see more foreign capital finding its way to Perth, with our affordable real estate prices very popular with overseas buyers.”
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Perth to profit from overseas funds after Brexit and NSW, Victoria property taxes: Raine & Horne

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GUEST OBSERVER
The UK has long been a destination for Asian real estate investors, with the attraction of the strong liquidity, stable governance, transparency and clear title, meaning that investors from China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand have all invested in bricks-and-mortar in the country.
With the decision to exit the European Union, for existing Asian property owners, the fall in the pound will impact the repatriation of any income returns, as well as the gains on any disposal.
Although there is likely to be more volatility in the market, ultimately most investors are looking to the long term – so will continue to hold their assets, in the hope that any short-term instability will eventually subside when more clarity of the UK’s role in Europe is determined.
The decision, however, could also present a buying opportunity, as the significant drop in the value of the pound, as in 2009, could lead to an uptick of interest by Asian investors, who, over the last few months have adopted a wait-and-see approach to the referendum – and will now see their buying power increase significantly.
Chinese, Singaporean and Hong Kong investors especially, looking at both residential and commercial properties – most likely in London – will be monitoring the market carefully and looking for opportunities to potentially increase their exposure over the coming weeks and months.
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Nicholas Holt is head of research for Asia Pacific, Knight Frank and can be contacted <a href="https://www.knightfrank.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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London lure for Asian real estate investors: Knight Frank's Nicholas Holt

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The United Kingdom's vote for Brexit may boost demand for Australian houses, Macquarie economic analyst James McIntyre suggests.
The vote for Brexit may prompting more expatriates to return home and deterring locals from heading abroad
Mr McIntyre's note to clients last week, obtained by Fairfax Media, also said there is now the "potential for a less negative house price outlook" for Australia.
It said the prospect of stronger population growth as a result of Brexit, alongside further interest rate cuts, "could boost housing demand, and confound some of the more aggressive expectations for negative housing spillovers".
"A weaker growth outlook for the UK, and Europe, could see a return of Australian expats, and a decline in the number of Australians seeking better opportunities offshore," the note said.
The plunge in pound sterling, which is about 10 percent below its pre-Brexit exchange rate with the Australian dollar, also makes working in the UK less attractive to expats who envisage bringing the money home with them.
His more optimistic price growth revision followed the prediction of a 7.5 percent decline in house prices from March this year, citing weaker population growth and a "bulging" pipeline of new homes being supplied.
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Macquarie sees Brexit assisting Australian property outlook

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Recent analysis of economic indicators conducted by RateCity.com.au indicates the RBA will hold its current cash rate at 1.75 percent due to the Federal Election results and potential fallout from Brexit.
Peter Arnold, RateCity.com.au data insights director said the RBA is unlikely to jump in without seeing how it all plays out.
“With the election still too close to call, the RBA will want to see how the nation and the government settle in before making a move,” he said.
“While the dust settles on last month's unexpected Brexit vote, leaving the world economy in tatters, the RBA is unlikely to act without seeing the full implications.
"Mortgage holders shouldn't be disappointed if the cash rate remains steady in July, as the banks have been taking matters into their own hands in recent weeks.
“Almost 180 fixed home loan rates were slashed in the last month, suggesting that there is at least one more rate cut to come this year, but the RBA is likely to hold it for another day."
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RBA to continue wait and see approach: RateCity

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GUEST OBSERVER
I have been analysing and forecasting economies since I worked in our Treasury in the late 1960s.
Over that time, I have fortunately been able to predict most of the key economic developments and events in the global and in our domestic economy – stagflation, recessions, stock and property market crashes, the Asian crisis, the tech-wreck, the global financial crisis (GFC), and so on. Yet it is much harder today to assess where to next than at anytime over that period.
Many of the economic relationships, that many have come to take for granted, seem to have broken down. To cite just one example, the view that if the world was flooded with liquidity, we’d not only stimulate significant real activity, but soon experience runaway inflation. Yet since the GFC, with massive “quantitative easing” (keeping interest rates low, mostly near zero, or even negative) in the US, Europe, Japan and recently China, there is still a significant risk of deflation, and the real economy, especially business investment, hasn’t really responded.
Europe is struggling to avoid a triple-dip recession with deflation, a risk now seriously enhanced with the Brexit vote. The US recovery seems to be faltering with the Federal Reserve threatening to raise interest rates, which could not only slow US growth, but precipitate further turmoil in emerging economies, in their stockmarkets and in their currencies.
Japan is still stuck in decades of rolling recessions and deflation. China’s growth is closer to 4-5 percent, much lower than the authorities would have us believe. It also has a host of structural issues – economic transition, demographic forces, aggregate debt, bad bank and non-bank loans, inequality, corruption and pollution – coming to the fore. And most emerging economies are in deep recession.
All these economic policy challenges are being overlaid, and further complicated, by mounting political and market volatility. This includes serious structural demographic trends like ageing and mass migration, a host of increasing geopolitical tensions, and the significant challenge of climate change to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
All up, world growth forecasts by most global and regional forecasters are being downgraded consistently. It is clear that the world will have to live with lower growth for many years to come. Most commodity prices are predicted to remain subdued, and world trade will remain particularly weak, having collapsed by some 14% last year.
Moreover, global policy authorities have almost exhausted their traditional monetary and fiscal policy capacity and flexibility, and now must face enormous political and institutional constraints that are working against genuine structural reform. It also seems that polls and betting odds are no longer a reliable guide to the “feelings of the masses”.
Some of the political forces at work are also of particular concern. For example, the recent Brexit vote revealed just how easily sound economic arguments can be overtaken by fear and emotion, driven mostly by misrepresentation and exaggeration, ignorance, and prejudice.
The outcomes could include a disunited kingdom, a fragmentation of Europe (still the world’s second largest economy) putting the Euro under real strain, and a UK, if not global, recession. We have seen a significant, and most disturbing, increase in anti-immigration sentiment across Europe, manifesting in significant political movements.
Equally, the US political system has been turned on its head by the emergence of Donald Trump, running his anti-immigration, anti-China, anti-freer trade, anti-globalisation agendas.
These and many other political forces could easily serve to stall, if not work to reverse, the significant economic progress made globally since the second world war, by integrating the world economy with the freer flow of goods, capital and people.
In my experience, the world has not faced a more challenging time, with such limited policy alternatives and capacities, and with little or no historical experience on which to draw.
Australia has just endured one its longest and most boring election campaigns, with little more than a passing reference to some of these challenges, but certainly no genuine recognition of their significance to the policy challenges our governments now face domestically.
These global conditions and challenges are of such significance that it could so easily swamp anything that was said or promised by any of the parties in this campaign.
The need for inspired leadership in our country has rarely been greater. We saw no evidence of it in this campaign. The outcome will be more uncertainty, less stability, and even poorer government, at this most challenging time.
John Hewson is professor and chair, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, Crawford School, Australian National University and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-hewson-16192" target="_blank">here</a>.
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