Booming

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<p>Expert Observer</p>

<p>The big dilemma facing many Australians is whether to confront the frenetic markets in many parts of the nation – or wait for things to settle down before seeking to buy.</p>

<p>I can understand people wanting to avoid the circumstances they currently face in so many locations: properties are selling very quickly, sometimes even before being formally marketed, and often for prices well above the asking price or price guide.</p>

<p>If you want to buy safely and sensibly with due diligence, it’s difficult to compete with cash buyers purchasing properties sight-unseen via a phone call. Surely it would be more sensible to wait until the frenzy dies down and conditions become more normal.</p>

<p>Actually, no. I think it’s a mistake to wait.</p>

<p>I don’t think the boom is a short-term fad, as some in media have suggested. This market scenario has been building for the past six months or so, it’s underpinned by multiple strong factors and it will extend throughout 2021 and into next year.</p>

<p>It’s a genuine nationwide real estate boom, the kind that we see only rarely in Australia. The last one was 2001-2002-2003 and before that it was in the late 1980s.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=27728]</p>

<p>These events happen for identifiable reasons and this one has many factors. My list of influences, which I published in this space a month ago, has 16 dot points. It’s not about low interest rates and it won’t be stalled by the end of JobKeeper. The Reserve Bank might change its mind and lift the official interest rate, but the boom will roll on.</p>

<p>So if you wait until it dies down before buying, you may be waiting a long time and you’ll be paying a lot more for your next home or investment property. If you delay until saner times, you could conceivably be paying 20% more. That means a property worth $500,000 now will be priced around $600,000. A $1 million property will cost $1.2 million.</p>

<p>We already have many suburbs and towns across Australia where the median house price is now 15% or 20% higher than it was a year ago.</p>

<p>Sunshine Beach on the Sunshine Coast has risen from $1.23 million to over $2 million in the space of 12 months.</p>

<p>A $600,000 purchase a year ago on the Sunshine Coast is now worth between $700,000 and $750,000, based on the growth in median house prices for locations such as Birtinya, Mt Coolum and Coolum Beach.</p>

<p>An investment of $550,000 to $650,000 12 months ago in the Central Coast market north of Sydney would now be worth $90,000 to $100,000 more, based on the growth in median prices in locations such as Long Jetty, Berkeley Vale and Umina Beach.</p>

<p>But many markets are only just getting started. Rapid price escalation is likely to continue well into next year. The most conservative of the forecasters, the bank economists, are predicting big growth this year and next year.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=24323]</p>

<p>So if you’re ready to get into the market now, don’t wait. You need to find a way to cut through the current frenzy and get the property you want.</p>

<p>If you’re an investor, there are locations in Australia with the credentials for long-term price growth but not yet “bonkers”.</p>

<p>The best way to proceed is to get your finances sorted, engage a reliable buyers’ agent, give them clear parameters and let them go find you a good investment property in a location with long-term growth drivers.</p>

<p>Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</p>

<p>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</p>

<p>twitter.com/hotspotting</p>
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I don’t think the boom is a short-term fad, as some in media have suggested

terryryder

Buy in a frenetic market, or wait it out? Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<div>Low interest rates have helped to spark one of the biggest housing booms Sydney has seen.<br><br>Sydney's median house price was up 22.9% or approximately $200,000 in the year to June 2015, following a massive 8.4% rise in the second quarter of the year.</div>
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<em>Domain Group</em>'s data:</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/07/23/Sydney.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/07/23/Sydney.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>
<div id="post-body-569318625860302453" class="post-body entry-content">Media reports a few viewpoints:<br><br>Dr Andrew Wilson:<br><br><div>"The double-whammy of the lowest interest rates since the 1960s and an investor frenzy has seen Sydney's median house price smash through the magic $1 million mark for the first time.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Domain's senior economist, Dr Andrew Wilson, says house prices leapt an extraordinary 8.4% over the June quarter to $1,000,616.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"It's the highest rate of growth since the late 1980s," Dr Wilson said.</div>
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<div><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"And it's because of low interest rates and they're going lower, lower and lower."</span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The median house price has increased by almost $200,000 in a year or 22.9%, which is one of the highest annual growth rates ever recorded by the city. <br><br>Dr Wilson said it exceeded the boom time results of 2001 and 2002.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>He attributed the huge growth to the high level of investor activity, with the $6.4 billion in loans approved over May – a record. <br><br>"Sixty-two per cent of the housing market loan share is now investors – another record – and an increase of 27 per cent over the first five months of this year compared with the first five months of last year."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Will Hampson:</div>
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<div>"Auctioneer Will Hampson has presided at auctions going $200,000, $300,000 and even $500,000 over reserve this year with suburb records often being smashed."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But even he described the $1 million median house price and the rate of growth as "incredible".</div>
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<div>"Each year for the past three years the auction market has been so strong," Mr Hampson said.</div>
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<div>He says auction listings are up 50 per cent up on last year for August and he's also tipping a strong spring.</div>
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<div>"Conditions are perfect because interest rates are at record lows and there's a shortage of supply in many pockets," Mr Hampson said.</div>
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<div>"A lot of buyers want to buy in a particular suburb – so perhaps Balmain, Mosman or Double Bay ... if they want to buy in those suburbs they are going to have to pay the price."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rate of growth is sure to spark fresh suggestions that the market is overheating but Mr Hampson hosed down such talk. "The market is not going to collapse ... even if it does adjust slightly, there's a massive amount of both local and foreign investment."</div>
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<div>...&amp; McGrath:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"McGrath chief executive John McGrath said Sydney had proven itself to be one of the most resilient property markets in the world, with long-term fundamentals underpinning the market.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"The boom will end at some point, but that doesn't mean price growth will end, but rather continue in a more moderate fashion," Mr McGrath said."</div>
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<div class="post-footer">
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Sydney boom accelerates: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>House building is now booming in the western NSW hub of Dubbo due to a high volume of vacant land sales over the last six to twelve months.</span></p>
<p><span>Herron Todd White state land sales are common off the plan with delayed settlement possible depending on the stage of construction.</span></p>
<p><span>An average four bedroom brick veneer with dual garage costs between $1,250 and $1,450sqm, with some costs reported as high as $1,600sqm and as low as $1,100. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">House and land packages marketed towards the investor or first home owner buyer start at $350,000 for a three bedder on a dual occupancy site, with $450,000 expected for a four bedroom with double garage on a standard sized block.</span></p>
<p>At the higher end of the market, HTW noted <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Southlakes and Grangewood Estates </span>constructions<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> have seen a two storey five bedroom house with triple garage and an inground pool was built for $700,000.</span></p>
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mick.cee-iDmgDDAmu8

Home building booming in Dubbo: Herron Todd White

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">House prices are booming again, unless you live in Perth or Darwin, national valuers Propell suggest. </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">After a hiatus in May, buyers returned strongly in June to most markets, setting fresh records and igniting comments about booms and warnings about the pace of growth.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">In June alone, Sydney prices were up 2.4%, but for the first time in a while, the percentage increase was eclipsed by Melbourne which was up 3%, it noted.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/07/14/propell1.jpg" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="/images/2015/07/14/propell1.jpg" alt="" width="1126" height="627"></span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"Given the big price differential, it raises the prospect that Melbourne growth rates may start to overtake those of Sydney in the next year,</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">" Propell said.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"We can imagine a scenario where Sydney price growth eases back into single digits while Melbourne growth rates are well into the teens."</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/07/14/propell2.jpg" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="/images/2015/07/14/propell2.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The Brisbane growth rate in prices was also strong, Propell advised up 1.9% in June after four weak months. </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Canberra was up 0.7% in June after a stronger May figure, and could be the surprise market of the next year showing increasing demand.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">But at the other end of the scale, prices dropped in Perth and Darwin.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"Canberra is now seeing an inflection point, and prices have started increasing during 2015. </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Melbourne was looking increasingly attractive to investors who are otherwise getting priced out of the Sydney market. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"The Sydney housing market still leads the country in price growth, but the pace of growth appears to be moderating, although it is still in double digits.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"In contrast, house price growth in Melbourne is strengthening and there is speculation among some parties that it could match or exceed that of Sydney in the coming year</span>…<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> The benefit is not flowing over into the apartment market, where Sydney is the only market expected to show significant growth in apartment prices.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Other markets, including Melbourne, are oversupplied if anything, with developers competing for purchasers.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The number of investors in the market appears to be falling, even as investment demand increases.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">This is due to the macro prudential controls imposed on banks, which are now routinely requiring a 10% deposit, and the mortgage rate applicable for investment properties is no longer discounted, Propell noted.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"Loans for investment properties had peaked at around 44% of all loans, but early figures suggest that this could now have fallen to as low as 30%.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"This should contribute to a slower pace of price growth in the coming year. </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">With a further cut in interest rates expected later in 2015, demand for real estate remains the bright spot in the economy."</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/07/14/Screen%20Shot%202015-07-14%20at%2011.29.55%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="/images/2015/07/14/Screen%20Shot%202015-07-14%20at%2011.29.55%20AM.png" alt="" width="1927" height="988"><a href="/images/2015/07/14/Screen%20Shot%202015-07-14%20at%2011.32.13%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br></span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="/images/2015/07/14/Screen%20Shot%202015-07-14%20at%2011.32.13%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Melbourne apartments the weak link in its price growth baton change with Sydney during 2015: Propell

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<div style="text-align: left;" align="center">As Australian businesses enter the new financial year, industry analyst IBISWorld has revealed which industries they believe are set to have s strong performance in 2018-19, and which are likely to struggle.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">“The standout performer is expected to be Intellectual Property Leasing, with expected revenue growth of 68.2%. Other strong performers include Internet Publishing and Broadcasting, Retail Property Operators, Pig Farming, and Child Care Services,” said Jason Aravanis, IBISWorld Senior Industry Analyst.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">“Industries expected to decline over the next 12 months, reflecting the changing landscape of the Australian economy, includeMulti-Unit Apartment and Townhouse Construction, Building Societies, Video Game, DVD and Recorded Music Retailing, House Construction, and Iron Ore Mining. These contractions are in response to changing commodity prices, consumer behaviour, and investor sentiment,” said Mr Aravanis.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;" align="center">Industries set to fly in 2018-19</div>
<div style="text-align: left;" align="center"> </div>
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<table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td width="292">
<div align="center">Industry</div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center">Revenue 2017-18 ($m)</div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center">Revenue 2018-19 ($m)</div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center">Revenue growth 2018-19</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="292">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">Intellectual Property Leasing</span></div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">2,826</span></div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">4,752</span></div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">68.2%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="292">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">Internet Publishing and Broadcasting</span></div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">2,486</span></div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">2,896</span></div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">16.5%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="292">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">Retail Property Operators</span></div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">22,830</span></div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">26,590</span></div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">16.5%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="292">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">Pig Farming</span></div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">1,110</span></div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">1,262</span></div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">13.7%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
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<td width="292">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">Child Care Services</span></div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">12,205</span></div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">13,075</span></div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">7.2%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
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<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">Retail Property Operators in Australia</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">Revenue for the Retail Property Operators industry is expected to increase by 16.5% in 2018-19, to $26.6 billion. Demand from retail trade is anticipated to grow in 2018-19, fuelling demand for industry services. Growing demand from overseas investors has also contributed to the industry’s revenue expansion over the past five years. Demand from overseas investors has largely been due to improved vacancy rates over the period, and growth in Australian property prices, both commercial and residential.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">Despite the industry’s strong growth, operators have continued to face pressures caused by fluctuating consumer sentiment, which can affect retail sales and business confidence. While improvements to underlying retail drivers may prompt more spending, an increasing proportion of consumers choosing to shop online may somewhat mitigate the positive effects of these drivers on the industry.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">Pig Farming</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">The Pig Farming industry is expected to grow by 13.7% in 2018-19. Rising health consciousness and continued marketing efforts by Australian Pork Limited (APL) are likely to continue driving consumer demand towards fresh pork. As a result, pig meat consumption is expected to continue growing in 2018-19, as consumers increasingly view fresh pork as a healthy source of protein.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">With weight and wellness concerning more Australians each year, consumers are being turned away from traditional red meats like lamb and beef towards leaner sources of protein like fresh pork. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) expects beef, veal and lamb consumption to fall in 2018-19.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">Operators in the Pig Farming industry are anticipated to increase production in 2018-19 to take advantage of this rising demand, while growing demand for premium fresh pork products is likely to boost the domestic price of pig meat. IBISWorld also expects that pig meat exports will grow while import volumes will decline in 2018-19, providing a further boost to Australian domestic pig farmers.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">Child Care Services</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">The Child Care Services industry has benefited over the past five years from rising maternal workforce participation rates and increasing enrolment rates. Both of these factors have been encouraged by increased government assistance packages designed to encourage woman to return to the workforce following the birth of their children.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">The industry’s operating conditions are set to change again in 2018-19, with the introduction of the new single Child Care Subsidy (CCS) on 2 July 2018. In contrast to the previous child care assistance package, this new subsidy is to be paid directly to child care operators. The Federal Government is expected to pay out $8 billion in CCS payments in the first year of the policy. This is expected to contribute to the industry’s anticipated growth of 7.2% in 2018-19, to $13.1 billion.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;" align="center">Industries set to fall in 2018-19</div>
<div style="text-align: left;" align="center"> </div>
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<table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
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<td width="292">
<div align="center">Industry</div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center">Revenue 2017-18 ($m)</div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center">Revenue 2018-19 ($m)</div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center">Revenue growth 2018-19</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="292">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">Multi-Unit Apartment &amp; Townhouse Construction</span></div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">25,617</span></div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">21,173</span></div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">-17.3%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="292">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">Building Societies</span></div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">509</span></div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">436</span></div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">-14.4%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
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<td width="292">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">Video Game, DVD &amp; Recorded Music Retailing</span></div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">1,006</span></div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">927</span></div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">-7.9%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="292">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">House Construction</span></div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">44,683</span></div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center">41,823</div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">-6.4%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
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<td width="292">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">Iron Ore Mining</span></div>
</td>
<td width="195">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">62,994</span></div>
</td>
<td width="199">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">59,494</span></div>
</td>
<td width="234">
<div align="center"><span lang="en-GB">-5.6%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">Multi-Unit Apartment and Townhouse Construction</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">The Multi-Unit Apartment and Townhouse Construction industry is expected to face deteriorating demand in 2018-19, as investors respond to the build-up of unsold stock by deferring projects. The recent completion of major apartment developments has contributed to excess supply in several capital cities, notably Melbourne and Brisbane, which is likely to dampen investment until vacancy rates gradually ease.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">The scaling back of investment is also expected to coincide with weaker investment from Asia in the local real estate market, which is due to the tightening of mortgage lending practices to foreign residents by the local banks, and the imposition of additional land taxes on foreign investors. Although work done on multi-unit apartments and townhouses is expected to decline, the industry is declining from historically high levels and many of the construction contractors will look to ride out the cyclical contraction. Industry revenue is expected to contract by 17.3% in 2018-19, to $21.2 billion.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">Building Societies</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">The Building Societies industry has declined significantly over the past five years on the back of prominent exits and a falling cash rate. Intense competition from national banks, and low-interest rates, have placed significant pressure on the industry. Interest revenue generated by building societies on their loan books has fallen on the back of the lower cash rate, despite greater demand for mortgages.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;"> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">The lack of access to further capital has been a key factor that has led to the conversion of several former operators to banks. In 2012-13, nine building societies were registered in Australia. Only three building societies remain in the current year, with the most recent exit being B&amp;E Ltd’s conversion to a bank in October 2017. As a result, revenue from building societies is expected to decrease by 14.4% in 2018-19, to $436.3 million.                      </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">                       </div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">Video Game, DVD and Recorded Music Retailing</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">The Video Game, DVD and Recorded Music Retailing industry is expected to decline by 7.9% in 2018-19. Changing media formats and the increasing popularity of online shopping are making trading difficult for retailers of products that can be accessed online. Intensifying competition from digital media formats and online-only retailers has significantly contributed to industry revenue declining over the past five years.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">The industry’s largest product segment is video games. Although the uptake of video games has been strong over the past decade, the increasing sophistication of online-only stores and the advent of faster and cheaper internet connections have caused a significant portion of video game sales to occur online through platforms such as Steam. A similar trend is occurring for films, television shows and recorded music, with online streaming through providers like Netflix and Spotify becoming the dominant mode of content delivery. These trends are cementing the industry’s decline.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">House Construction</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">The House Construction industry’s revenue is expected to trend downward in 2018-19, corresponding with the anticipated rise in mortgage interest rates and some deterioration in mortgage affordability. The magnitude of the cyclical correction in demand from the House Construction industry is expected to be much smaller than the slump in the aligned Multi-Unit Apartment and Townhouse Construction industry, which is exposed to substantial unsold stock levels and the exit of foreign investment.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">The decline in new housing investment is likely to be most evident in the first-home buyers category, as the recent increases in housing prices and the rise in mortgage repayments are likely to prevent more households from becoming home owners. The House Construction industry is anticipated to decline, although continued solid population growth is expected to ensure solid underlying demand for new housing. Overall, industry revenue is forecast to decline by 6.4% in 2018-19, to $41.8 billion.</span></div>
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<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">Iron Ore Mining</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">Although revenue generated by the Iron Ore Mining industry is expected to decline 5.6% in 2018-19, this decline is from a relatively high level, and is across an industry that has expanded output dramatically over the past decade.  A lower average world iron ore price in 2018-19 is expected to be the main contributor to the industry’s revenue fall. As domestic and global iron ore production volumes continue to increase, iron ore prices are expected to weaken due to oversupply.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="en-GB">The industry relies heavily on Chinese demand, with China anticipated to account for more than 80% of Australia’s iron ore exports in 2018-19. Slower GDP growth in China will likely hinder demand for steel, and hence iron ore. Furthermore, a stronger Australian dollar against the US dollar will reduce the competitiveness of Australia’s iron ore exports. However, as local iron ore quality is very high, and as per-unit iron ore mining costs in Australia are very low globally, the industry will remain competitive in 2018-19 and over the next five years.</span></div>
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