Asian Markets

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EXPERT OBSERVER
It all feels a little 'contagious'. Among emerging markets, that is. For a while, one could point to specific challenges in specific economies. But in recent weeks, the sell-off has spread, and not always with good justification. Indonesia is a case in point: fundamentals look sound - certainly no less so than, say, a couple of years ago - yet the currency has slid to a 20-year low.
Contagions come in different guises: economic, financial, psychological -- though in reality, they combine elements of all three. Even if more insulated than others, emerging Asia is still exposed on all these fronts. The best prophylactic is usually swift tightening, both monetary and financial. If the current turmoil lingers, the region will have to deliver more of it. And that'll dent growth.
Your economist has been making the rounds of late, in Asia and Europe, gauging investor sentiment. It's been a rough summer for many, no doubt. But one hardly registers a sense of panic. Views remain differentiated, and Asia on the whole is still seen as relatively robust.
The headlines, though, remain challenging. And as veteran emerging market investors well know, pressures can swiftly spread, exacerbated by markets that are thinner and less liquid than those in the developed world.
So it's worth revisiting, in principle, what can cause 'contagion'. Three dimensions matter - overlapping and reinforcing each other, of course, but nonetheless conceptually distinct.
Economic contagion occurs when real sector linkages between markets prompt stress to spread. Here, Asia is less exposed to potential turmoil in other emerging markets. But common themes are on investor minds nonetheless: a slowing China, foremost, would hurt emerging markets everywhere. Evidence of strengthening Mainland demand would thus do a lot to stabilize EM sentiment.
Broadly, trade tensions between the US and China are also frequently cited - both in terms of cooling Chinese demand, and in terms of the broader threat the dispute presents to global trade. Here, Asia is especially exposed, via supply chains that tie into China and the broader dependence on global trade.
Financial contagion refers to investor positioning. In the simplest case, should an EM investor face redemptions, but difficulties of getting out of positions in the most hard-pressed markets, he or she could be forced to liquidate positions elsewhere, including in economies with sound fundamentals.
For the moment, this doesn't appear to be the case. But the point is that emerging Asia could be affected by this even if the fundamentals of many economies in the region appear comparatively robust.
Psychological contagion is perhaps a little harder to define, but material nonetheless: a given market sells off even if there are no obvious economic or financial linkages to others. Apart from simply frayed nerves, this can be caused by a 'paradigm shift', where, say, investors suddenly question to wisdom of investing in emerging markets at all.
Contagion, of any form, is best prevented with swift and early action. In emerging markets, this usually entails tighter macroeconomic policy (and, if needed, structural reforms).
If the current market jitters persist, more may be needed across emerging Asia as well. Less so, of course, in countries with robust current account surpluses than in others. But even a strong balance of payments position, if the stock of non-resident liabilities is sufficiently large, doesn't obviate the need for some tightening.
Here's to the headlines turning a little more soothing soon.
Frederic Neumann is the Co-head of Asia Economics Research at HSBC
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Why the contagion is spreading among emerging Asian markets: HSBC's Frederic Nuemann

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Savills office in Vietnam has merged with Alternaty, a leading hotel advisory in Indochina, as part of its efforts to tap into the growing hospitality markets of the Asia Pacific, particularly South East Asia. 
Alternaty’s employees will join the hotel business at Savills and will be based in Savills’ Ho Chi Minh City office. 
Savills Hotel Asia Pacific, led by Raymond Clement, consists of individuals with experience and a strong track record across the tourism and hospitality sector. Mauro Gasparotti and Rudolf Hever will both take the role of director, Hotels, Savills Asia Pacific, driving business in Vietnam and South East Asia. 
On the team from Alternaty, Savills Vietnam managing director Neil MacGregor said: “The Alternaty team, led by Mauro and Rudolf, are well known as market leaders in hospitality in the IndoChina region. Their capabilities will add depth to establish a robust platform, offering a complete suite of services for the hotel development lifecycle.”
The merger will help Savills get a platform to tap into IndoChina’s rapidly growing hospitality markets, with Vietnam itself seeing a 26% increase in foreign arrivals in 2016.  
With a growing number of investors actively seeking hotel and resort assets, this will consolidate Savills’ investment brokerage platform.
The Hotel Advisory Services in Vietnam will provide hotel and resort market research including feasibility studies, operator selection, asset management and investment brokerage.
“We are delighted to become part of the Savills family and to leverage Savills’ extensive operation, sales and marketing platform in the region,” said Mauro Gasparotti, executive director at Alternaty.
Rudolf Hever, director of Hotels, Savills Asia Pacific said more players were entering Vietnam’s growing market with total hotel transaction volumes at nearly $500 million in the last 24 months. The number of five-star hotel rooms in 2015 soared by 37% year-on-year to reach 24,000 units, he added. 
This growing trend in hotel development can be seen across hotel segments with an estimated 15%-20% growth in total hotel supply in the short term. Besides the key cities of HCMC and Hanoi, up and coming markets such as Phu Quoc, Danang and Nha Trang are also catching investor attention. 
Alternaty is a boutique real estate consultancy which was founded in 2012. It is known for its contacts and track record in commercial property, hotel and resort advisory throughout the IndoChina region. 
The Savills Hotels team valued and advised on US$9.1 billion worth of hotel assets in Asia Pacific in 2016. Most recently, it has led the sale of the Anantara Ubud Bali, the Duxton Hotel Saigon and the Hyatt Regency Osaka.
 
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Savills Vietnam merges with hotel advisory firm

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In a world racked by political uncertainty induced by Brexit negotiations, European elections and a new presidency in the US, the Asian markets appear to have maintained their appeal in 2016, according to Savills’ latest report.
"Office yields across all major cities hardened over the second half of last year and we believe there is still some (limited) scope for them to fall further in 1H/2017; the low interest rate environment, the ongoing ‘search for yield’ and increasing allocations to real estate are all considered to be positives for the sector," the report stated.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-21%20at%205.21.11%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-21%20at%205.21.11%20pm.jpg" alt="">
One of the most significant challenges for investors is a lack of prime office stock, however, and volumes have fallen consistently compared with 2015, a situation which is unlikely to reverse any time soon.
This lack of liquidity across most asset classes has arguably been masked by the above average number of portfolio deals recorded over the second half.
Scarcity of assets has resulted in money accumulating on the sidelines, causing fundraising to decline versus the previous year.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-21%20at%205.21.22%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-21%20at%205.21.22%20pm.jpg" alt="">
Despite its inward focus, Asian real estate capital has continued to explore overseas markets with the US attracting the lion’s share of deals, followed by the UK.
Cross border activity in 2016 was dominated by China, South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong in that order while South Korean activity registered the highest rate of increase.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-21%20at%205.21.37%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-21%20at%205.21.37%20pm.jpg" alt="">
It will be interesting to see how Asian capital reacts to rate hikes  by the Federal Reserve and a strengthening US dollar set against a less predictable policy landscape in 2017 if that  is what comes to pass.
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Asian commercial property markets continue to maintain their appeal despite uncertainty: Savills

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GUEST OBSERVER
Yep, it happened. And now that the dust is settling, the challenges for Asia are becoming more evident. In sum, 2017 looks like it’ll be the most difficult for the region since 2009. It’s not, of course, entirely the President-elect’s fault – his administration, after all, hasn’t even outlined a detailed policy agenda yet, let alone taken the reins of power. 
Plus, Asia’s travails are partly self-inflicted. Still, if the past few weeks are any indication, things are bound to get a lot tougher. Trade is one thing, with exports already struggling and little prospect for a policy-driven rebound. The bigger issue, though, is the dollar and rates. Financial conditions are tightening across the region, putting a squeeze on domestic demand. It’ll get bumpier, still. 
As impressive as the rebound from the Global Financial Crisis has been, Asia has over recent years merely limped along. The taper tantrum of 2013 was a wake-up call, but the region managed to hit the snooze button for a little while longer, avoiding outright financial stress. 
But growth continued to decelerate, with exports in particular struggling to make meaningful headways since late 2014 and debt saturation weighing on local demand. It’s tempting to think that the latest market gyrations will pass, too, without more substantial harm. But, with every iteration, prospects dim further. 
Start with exports. These, as noted, have struggled for some time now. A combination of factors is to blame, including weak capex the world over, the commodity investment slump, creeping protectionism (or at least the absence of major trade liberalization over the past decade), supply chain disintegration, and an expenditure shift towards services. 
The question for 2017 is whether exports will at last rebound. We have our doubts. An acceleration in US growth should help. Yet this may be offset by continued sluggish demand elsewhere in the world, not least in emerging markets. 
The Trump administration may also help spur a recovery in US private capex, via deregulation and other, purportedly more business friendly policies. Yet it will take time before the full impact is felt, leaving this to be, presumably, more of a story for 2018 and beyond. 
Key to watch will be a deal with Congress to repatriate offshore cash holding by US companies, but it’s not clear that this in itself will send capex soaring if record-low rates previously failed to do so. A promised 1 trillion US dollar infrastructure push could help as well, if this will ever be passed by Congress in its entirety. But again: this too, will stretch out over many years. 
At the same time, a Trump administration may adopt a more protectionist stance. True, details aren’t available yet, apart from some vague talk about punitive action and the promise to shelve the TPP. 
This, no doubt, will restrain exports, even if the impact will likely be more industry specific. But note that uncertainty over trade policy in itself will promptly weigh on growth in Asia by curtailing investment (why invest in further capacity if it remains unclear that the resulting goods can be sold?). In this sense, a pick-up in US capex would partly come at the expense of investment spending in Asia. 
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It’s hard to see, therefore, a meaningful revival in Asia trade for the foreseeable future. 
However, the bigger issues, at least in the near-term, are US rates and the dollar. The spike in US yields has certainly caught markets by surprise. And, if these revert in due course, the damage might prove limited. But accelerating US growth, fuelled by more generous fiscal spending, could make it easier for the Fed to hike rates. 
In fact, HSBC’s chief US economist Kevin Logan, now expects three Fed hikes over the coming year (up from two). 
This amounts to a stiff headwind for Asian economies that have come to rely on rapid credit growth to sustain demand in recent years. Even China, still partly protected by capital controls, is not immune to this: with the PBoC possibly needing to forego, at the very least, further aggressive easing in order to stabilize FX demand. Elsewhere, rate cuts are also becoming a more remote prospect, such as in Malaysia where policy room is shrinking even as growth sags. 
Currency moves are compounding the effect. While exchange rate depreciation should, in principle, provide a boost to Asian exporters, the resulting tightening in financial conditions (higher rates) could more than offset the loosening of monetary conditions (weaker exchange rates). 
First, growth is currently hugely credit intensive and debt levels high, amplifying the drag of higher rates. Second, for the reasons cited, US import demand, despite accelerating growth, will likely be insufficient to compensate for this. Third, contrary to previous episodes of exchange rate weakness, the current FX sell-off is broad-based and, notably, includes the renminbi, thus leaving few Asian exporters with a meaningful gain in competitiveness. 
Challenging stuff. But the effects are not necessarily uniform across Asia. Indonesia, the Philippines, and India are likely to be more shielded from the “Trump effect” given their low debt and low export exposures. 
By contrast, Malaysia, China, Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand should more affected. The winner, if one can call it that, is the Bank of Japan, with the weaker yen taking the pressure off. But that’s not much of a consolation: Japan, too, will in the end need exports to do a lot better to cure its growth malaise. 
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Frederic Neumann is co-head of Asian Economics Research, HSBC, and can be contacted <a href="https://www.hsbc.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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