Arrears

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Australia's 30+ day mortgage arrears will rise in the second quarter of the 2021 after only a small rise in the last quarter of 2020 as expected, Fitch Ratings says in a report.

Fitch expects losses to stay low due to the recovery in home prices.

The 30+ day arrears in 4Q20 rose by 2bp to 1.01% from the previous quarter, as borrowers struggling with the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic continued to take up payment deferrals offered by Australian lenders. 

The agency reported it does not expect the Dinkum RMBS index to "increase significantly" until the payment deferral periods ends on 31 March 2021.

The banking regulator has advised that deferrals do not need to be treated as arrears. 

Dinkum transactions had 1.7% of borrowers under payment deferrals at end-4Q20, 310bp lower than the previous quarter. 

Conditional prepayment rates for transactions issued by non-bank lenders have recently increased to 23%, significantly above those issued by banks, likely due to borrowers refinancing to take advantage of low fixed-interest rates offered by some banks.

Fitch expects prices to continue rising, supported by record low mortgage rates, along with a lower supply of housing stock and government incentives for housing, particularly for first-home buyers.

Losses in RMBS transactions from the sale of collateral property were the lowest in the last decade, with lenders' mortgage insurance payments and excess spread being sufficient to cover principal shortfalls in all transactions during the quarter. 

Fitch's Dinkum RMBS Index tracks arrears and performance of mortgages underlying public Australian prime RMBS.
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The growth in arrears isn't due until the second quarter of the 2020-2021 financial year

jchancellor

Arrears will stay low in mid-2021 given home price rises: Fitch

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Australian prime home-loan arrears fell in October, according to S&amp;P Global Ratings' recently published RMBS Arrears Statistics: Australia.

The Standard &amp; Poor's Performance Index (SPIN) for Australian prime mortgages decreased to 1.07% in October from 1.12% a month earlier.

The SPIN for Australian nonconforming mortgages also dropped in October, falling to 3.22% from 3.36% the previous month.

Low interest rates and competitive refinancing conditions are closely correlated with decreasing arrears because they help ease debt-serviceability pressures, S&amp;P advised.

It noted the level of loans under mortgage-deferral arrangements continues to fall as the gradual reopening of state economies enables more borrowers to resume repaying their mortgages.

"We believe mortgage deferral levels began to plateau in November because many arrangements were due to expire in October.

"Borrowers still under mortgage-deferral arrangements beyond October were likely granted an extension by lenders, following an assessment of the borrowers' capacity to resume mortgage repayments.

"The level of loans under mortgage-deferral arrangements after November therefore will provide more meaningful insights into the genuine levels of debt-serviceability pressures in the wake of COVID-19.

"We believe lenders will not want to rush into foreclosure processes at the end of mortgage-relief periods, choosing instead to work with borrowers by restructuring loans and moving them into formal hardship programs."

It expects borrower defaults to increase in 2021, but losses will be tempered by a recovery in property prices and the relatively modest loan-to-value (LTV) ratio profile of the broader RMBS sector and its limited exposure to negative equity and high LTV loans.

S&amp;P Global Ratings does believe there remains a "high degree of uncertainty" about the evolution of the coronavirus pandemic.
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Australian prime home-loan arrears fell in October, according to S&P Global Ratings' recently published RMBS Arrears Statistics: Australia

Home loan arrears fall in October

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The Commonwealth Bank has revealed an increase in borrowers behind in their mortgage repayments.
The number of home loan borrowers more than 90 days overdue on their loan was sat at 0.65 per cent, up from 0.59 per cent at the end of December. 
There were emerging "troublesome exposures" mentioned in its stockmarket update on Wednesday morning.
However CBA said the credit quality of the group's lending portfolios remained sound. 
The bank noted "there has been an uptick in home loan arrears, influenced by a small number of customers experiencing difficulties with rising essential costs and limited income growth".
CBA said "consumer arrears were seasonally higher in the quarter".
Customers more than 90 days due on their personal loans rose from 1.21 per cent at the end of December to 1.39 per cent at the end of March, while credit card arrears also rose slightly, from 0.88 per cent to 0.98 per cent.
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<div id="article-inline-ad">It also said a small number of loans had resulted in an increase "troublesome exposures", while impaired assets remained stable.</div>
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Overall, bad debts remain very low.
The Australian Financial review advised the loan impairment expense of $261 million in the quarter was 14 basis points of gross loans and acceptances, down from 16 basis points in the first half. CBA said it maintained "prudent" levels of credit provisioning with total provisions at $3.8 billion.
Westpac recently indicated at the end of 2017 its arrears rate was 1.2 per cent, down slightly from 1.3 per cent at the end of 2016. Westpac arrears were below historical peaks of 1.7-to-1.9 per cent. In New South Wales market, Westpac mortgage arrears are the lowest nationally at just 0.8 per cent, below the state's long-term average of 1.4 per cent.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Arrears jumps in CommBank loan book

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The number of home loans in arrears rose for the seventh consecutive month in May, according to the Standard &amp; Poor’s Performance Index, commonly referred to as SPIN.
Australian Broker noted it shows that 1.21 percent of “prime” residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) were in arrears in May, up from 1.14 percent the previous month and 1.07 percent a year earlier.
The index measures the weighted-average arrears more than 30 days past due on loans in RMBS transactions.
It also showed that arrears were higher amongst the banks.
The major banks’ 90 day-plus arrears rose four basis points to 0.48 percent, while non-banks fell a point to 0.17 percent. 
S&amp;P noted that the non-conforming remains low by historical standards and well below the 2009 peak.
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