Apartment Construction

<p>The prominent Sunshine Coast developer Cube Developments has launched their own&nbsp;construction arm in an attempt to cruise over the&nbsp;currently problematic&nbsp;Australian&nbsp;construction industry.</p>

<p>Cube Constructions will be led by&nbsp;Michael Crocker,&nbsp;whose long career saw him lead the likes of Hutchinson Builders and NCM Constructions.</p>

<p>Director of Cube Developments Scott Juniper said taking the builds of upcoming projects in-house was a natural evolution for the company due to the team&rsquo;s expert mix of design, build, trades and consultancy.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=109813 project_image_fid=196625]</p>

<p>&ldquo;Our team has a strong history of delivering high-quality projects across the Sunshine Coast. Couple this with the long running expertise that Michael brings to the venture as Head of Construction, we are confident that we are in the best position to deliver our projects from start to finish,&rdquo; Juniper said.</p>

<p>&ldquo;We&rsquo;re looking forward to giving both existing and new purchasers the confidence that when they sign an off-the-plan contract that it&#39;s something that can and will come to fruition, and in a timely manner.&rdquo;</p>

<p>With a recruitment drive underway, Crocker said the new venture will create plenty of new jobs in the region, including project managers, safety officers and site foreman.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=89721 project_image_fid=172110]</p>

<p>&ldquo;Following the huge demand for property experienced here on the coast over the last 18 months, we have more than 500 residences in the pipeline across five Cube Developments projects, all of which will be built by Cube Constructions,&rdquo; Crocker said.</p>

<p>The first project to commence under Cube Constructions is Nature by Cube in Cotton Tree with works scheduled to start mid-July, followed by the construction of Oasis in Bokarina Beach and Seasons by Cube in Birtinya.</p>

<p>The announcement comes at a critical time in the Australian building sector, with over 16 large firms having collapsed since 2021, leaving developers with unfinished projects, thousands of Australians without jobs and just as many would-be homeowners empty handed.</p>


Cube Constructions will be led by Michael Crocker, whose long career saw him lead the likes of Hutchinson Builders and NCM Constructions

Joel Robinson

Sunshine Coast developer Cube launch construction arm

Construction needs to keep working, urged David Cremona, the national director of construction at Meriton, on Sydney radio today.

He advised Australia's biggest builder Meriton have around 300 staff plus 3500 workers caught up in the construction industry shutdown that closed sites from Monday morning across Sydney.

The NSW government’s announcement over the weekend there would be a two week building shutdown.

Harry Triguboff, who has a dozen apartment buildings under construction, said that the building industry had been keeping the economy buoyant.

"If you stop that you kill everything. By us building you keep everything going, including suppliers,” he said.

“It’s terrible, because if you go along the freeways the only traffic is trucks and tradies," he told The Australian.

“All we are doing is counting how many people have it,” he said.

“There is a short supply of accommodation in apartments. We have dropped the numbers we are building by half,” Triguboff said.

Cremona told 2GB's Ray Hadley that he'd been constructing faster than approvals were being processed under the Berejiklian government.

He said there would be a $750 million direct weekly hit to the NSW economy, plus an indirect $2 billion hit through the supply chain if the fortnight shutdown continued.

"We have means to manage the outbreak.... if we want this V-shaped re-bound, the NSW Government needs to take housing industry seriously," Cremona said.

"It has been an absolute joke ever since Berejiklian has been incharge approvals have been coming down... I'm building quicker than my town planners are getting approvals," Cremorna said 
 
The development lobby group Urban Taskforce said the close-down of construction in NSW was an "overreach" that will cost the economy billions of dollars.

The NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian has so far withstood the backlash with word leaking that the covid cabinet was split with opposition to the move from Treasurer Dominic Perrottet, the Health Minister Brad Hazzard, and Jobs Minister Stuart Ayres.

“Having the risk of thousands of people being mobile at one time, many of them coming from communities that have had cases, was too big a risk,” Ms Berejiklian told a press conference on Monday.

“The Treasurer and key senior public servants are meeting with the construction sector daily to make sure that when they go back to work there are safe places,” she said. 

“We can’t have people, who may not have symptoms, visiting multiple worksites, visiting sites with hundreds of workers and spreading the disease.”

Multiplex will have about 2000 people out of work over the next fortnight.

BIS Oxford Economics estimated about 280,000 construction sector workers will be directly impacted, with more indirect layoffs in the transport, manufacturing and wholesale sectors.

Melbourne’s second wave of Covid-19 saw onsite workers for major construction sites scaled back to 25 per cent of normal workforce.

Smaller projects were allowed to proceed with up to five people per site, while large-scale government projects had their workers onsite halved.


BIS Oxford Economics estimated about 280,000 construction sector workers will be directly impacted


jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Sydney apartment construction needs to keep working: David Cremona, Meriton national construction director

<p>The NSW Government has announced a collaboration to develop a world-first construction assurance tool to access a residential building&rsquo;s quality and compliance with construction standards.</p>

<p>The Building Assurance Solution (BAS) will bring together the products and designs certificates of compliance for each building to create a digital DNA that will establish a trustworthy rating for individual buildings, so they can be compared like-for-like.</p>

<p>Minister for Better Regulation and Innovation Kevin Anderson said developing this digital technology, in partnership with KPMG, NSW Fair Trading and the insurance industry, was part of the drive to transparency in lifting standards in the construction industry.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=100811 project_image_fid=162902]</p>

<p>&ldquo;We expect this to be a genuinely world-leading piece of work that will help measure the quality and insurability of buildings by identifying which buildings are trustworthy, from measuring compliance with design and construction standards to traceability of materials all the way back to the manufacturer.&rdquo; Mr Anderson said.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
&ldquo;With this information, aspiring homeowners will be able to make better decisions about what could be the most significant purchase in their life, before they buy.&rdquo;<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Mr Anderson said the BAS tool will allow the regulator to easily identify and respond to defective products and take action against the riskiest practitioners by knowing which buildings they have worked on.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
&ldquo;This tool will show us what products were used, who made them, what testing certifications are held and, who installed and certified building work. Practitioners who build and design in NSW will now have a digital fingerprint that will attach to every project they have worked on,&rdquo; Mr Anderson said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=30049 project_image_fid=162882]<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Mr Anderson said the tool will allow insurers, for the first time, to easily compare buildings so they can better price insurance for buildings and the practitioners who design and construct them.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&ldquo;The Buliding Assurance Solution, combined with the requirement for designers and builders to lodge their designs electronically and declare they comply with the building code, will help give insurers confidence to return to the market,&rdquo; Mr Anderson said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7363 project_image_fid=166645]&nbsp;<br />
<br />
The minister advised KPMG will work with developers, including Mirvac, to demonstrate the application of the BAS tool to their new projects.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
&ldquo;Ultimately this tool will help establish NSW as the best place to run a trustworthy construction business, giving the cowboys nowhere to hide and consumers confidence &nbsp;they&rsquo;re buying an apartment that will stand the test of time,&rdquo; Mr Anderson said.</p>


The BAS tool will give the cowboys nowhere to hide and consumers confidence, NSW state government minister Kevin Anderson said

Mirvac among Sydney developers steering apartment building purchasing to quality transparency

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<p>A boom in mixed-use or other sector projects has seen Melbourne record a lift of almost eight per cent in the Q1 2021, according to the latest RLB Crane Index.</p>

<p>Over the last six months there have been 15 cranes added, with four added to each of the $800 million Caulfield Village in Caulfield North and the $220 million Richmond Quarter.</p>

<p>Three cranes were added to the Elizabeth north project in Elizabeth Street, bringing their total number of cranes to four.</p>

<p><img alt="" height="779" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/rlb_crane_melbourne.jpg" width="1200"><br>
Melbourne's Crane Index. Source: RLB Crane Index Q1</p>

<p>West Side Place Stage two also has four cranes, while there are three cranes are located at QVM Residences, Sapphire by the Gardens and Union Quarter. These six projects account for 22 of the 39 mixed-use cranes in Melbourne, according to RLB.</p>

<p>The cranes came down at the now completed Docklands Residences in Docklands. Developed by Capital Alliance, Docklands Residences comprises 88 apartments which have been built above a 200 room Marriott Hotel, the first built in Australia for over two decades.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=3205]</p>

<p>Cranes in inner Melbourne fell by seven to 95, the lowest since Q2 2018. That was primarily caused by the completion or near completion of many residential projects which saw residential cranes fall by 16 to 28.</p>

<p>Melbourne's east saw their residential cranes drop to nine, the lowest on record. Residential projects still account for 50 per cent of total cranes in east.</p>

<p>Residential cranes were removed from Camberwell's Anderson Park, the Summit and Alpine Apartments in Doncaster and the Hawthorn East apartment development Hawthorn Park.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=3730]</p>

<p>Developer Dahua Group had Rothelowman create the $300 million Hawthorn Park development alongside landscape architect Jack Merlo, with the standout feature of the 368 apartment development its striking infinity pool linking two of buildings.</p>

<p>Cranes came down at the nearby Toorak Road, Hawthorn East development Brasshouse, Lilydale Grove in Hawthorn East and The Kent in Hawthorn. The East Central tower in Box Hill saw cranes removed, as did Ramsay Gardens in Vermont South.</p>

<p>New cranes were placed for Pace of Blackburn, the modern project from the recent Master Builders Victoria award winners Pace Development Group, as well as Grocon's Denmark Kew and Prospect and Panorama Apartments in Box Hill, among others.</p>

<p>Melbourne's north saw 22 new cranes added with the region hitting 27, just below the record high of 27 in Q2 2018. There were just six removals.</p>

<p>It was busy in Brunswick, with cranes being moved on to the sites of Pellicano's build-to-rent Solarino house, Lucent's The Stewart Collective and Balfe Park Lane Apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4513]</p>

<p>Home by Caydon in Alphington and the Capella Apartments in Reservoir, developed by Forte Group, each installed two cranes on their sites.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=24441]</p>

<p>Melbourne's north was the only region to see an increase in residential cranes, increasing by 16 cranes to 23.</p>

<p>The south saw an increase of four cranes mainly due to commencement of the Caulfield Village project.</p>

<p>Other new projects in the south include Pavillion on the Park, developed by Sydney One Investments in Armadale, Lowe Living's Azure in Aspendale and Olea Residences in Caulfield.</p>

<p>There's also the family Supportive housing in Dandenong, Prince Corporation's East village in Prahran, Sandringham's Trentham House to be delivered by Carpe and the Loreto old St Georges building in Toorak.</p>

<p>Cranes were removed from Sutherland and Alara in Armadale, Olivia and Brighton Collection in Brighton, Collins &amp; Bates in Chadstone, Eastwood Monash in Clayton and The Glen in Glen Waverley, among others.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=3950]</p>

<p>Melbourne's west grew by four cranes to now total 18 cranes. Footscray remains the central area of crane activity with eight cranes including three new cranes at the new mixed-use project at Union Quarter in Spotswood.</p>

<p>Cranes were also added to Liberty one, 21 Victoria and Riverfront in Footscray and Kings Village in Kingsville.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=709]</p>

<p>Liberty One, to be delivered by Bensons Property Group, has 350 one and two bedroom apartments across its Warde Street development.</p>
</body></html>

Cranes in inner Melbourne fell by seven to 95, the lowest since Q2 2018

Mixed-use projects see crane levels rise across Melbourne

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<p>Brisbane's construction activity appears to be coming out of the doldrums, with 48 cranes added across the city over the past six months.</p>

<p>It bucked the trend of Queensland's 2020 drop-off in construction activity, with building work trending below the decade average for most key indicators.</p>

<p>The Rider Levett Bucknall's Q1 2021 Crane Index paints a much more promising picture for Brisbane's construction activity, with the number of cranes added the largest increase in Brisbane's crane numbers since the inception of the index just over seven years ago.</p>

<p>The index jumped from 68 to 97, with 27 cranes also removed from the city. There are now 71 cranes active across the Brisbane area.</p>

<p><img alt="" height="1080" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/rlb_crane_index_brisbane.jpg" width="1600"></p>

<p>Residential cranes remain the largest sector in Brisbane, accounting for almost 50 per cent of the cranes across Brisbane. Over the last six month, residential cranes have increased to 34 per cent, up by 12 previously.</p>

<p>This includes new developments starting in Ascot, Brisbane, Cannon Hill, Coorparoo, East Brisbane, Fortitude Valley, Hawthorne, Norman Park, South Brisbane, St Lucia and Yeronga. There have been two projects commence in Indooroopilly, New Farm, Newstead and Seven Hills, with three in Woolloongabba.</p>

<p>The mixed-use sector is the next largest sector, dominated by the nine cranes assisting the Queen's Wharf development. They account for 12 per cent of all the cranes in Brisbane.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=13276]</p>

<p>Waterfront Newstead, the Mirvac community, is one of few mixed-use projects which include two or more cranes.</p>

<p>The latest tower, known as Quay Waterfront Newstead, located alongside the Brisbane River, joins previously completed stages Pier, Park and Unison as part of the grander Waterfront Newstead community.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=90553]</p>

<p>The east of Brisbane saw the largest increase, with six more cranes added over the last six months. Previously there had just been one crane.</p>

<p>The new residential cranes were erected in Cannon hill, Hawthorne, Norman Park and two in Seven Hills.</p>

<p><strong>Brisbane's best off the plan developments</strong></p>

<p><strong>The Coterie, Fortitude Valley</strong></p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6257]</p>

<p>Just 1.5km away from Brisbane’s CBD in the culturally rich and vibrant Fortitude Valley are The Coterie. The two residential towers comprise of one, two and three bedroom selections and two penthouses across 27 floors. A collaboration from award winning design teams at Rothelowman and Bruce Henderson Architects introduces an elegant building silhouette wrapped in a flowing, monochromatic motif, a graphic representation of the connectivity between the two towers, the streetscape and the skyscrapers that border the suburb in the CBD.</p>

<p><strong>Monterey Kangaroo Point - 9 Lambert Street, Kangaroo Point</strong></p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7145]</p>

<p>Monterey Kangaroo Point is Australia's tallest timber tower. South of the Storey Bridge, Monterey Kangaroo Point is the second Urban Development Institute of Australia accredited EnviroDevelopment for the Gardner Vaughan Group. The Lambert Street development comprises 42 apartments.</p>

<p><strong>Venusto, Yeronga</strong></p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=34156]</p>

<p>Another from the Gardner Vaughan Group, and their other project to win the Urban Development Institute of Australia accredited EnviroDevelopment, Venusto is the latest announced building in Yeronga's luxury Renovaré development. Venusto is the third stage of the wider project and comprises 33 apartments made up of one, two, three and four bedroom units.</p>

<p> </p>

<p> </p>
</body></html>

The index jumped from 68 to 97, with 27 cranes also removed from the city. There are now 71 cranes active across the Brisbane area.

Brisbane sees biggest crane jump since 2014

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<p>The construction sector continued to recover in February, according to the Australian Industry Group/Housing Industry Association Australian Performance of Construction Index.</p>

<p>The housing activity index surged to a new record high.</p>

<p>And apartment building turning positive for the first time in three years, the report noted.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5559]</p>

<p>Residential builders said advised their customers are asking for their projects to commence "as soon as possible" due to government grant eligibility.</p>

<p>Ai Group head of policy, Peter Burn noted the construction sector continued to recover in February building on the strong rebound that first emerged in October last year. </p>

<p>"House building activity further accelerated, and the apartment sector lifted firmly into positive territory in the month."</p>

<p>He suggested some of the surge in demand for new houses was now flowing into apartments.  </p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=2772]</p>

<p>The report noted builders are increasing their orders and some are still catching up on supplies after extended freight disruptions.</p>

<p>"While recent data has been encouraging, the immediate outlook is mixed with new orders higher only in the housing segment: they were flat for the apartment building sector, mildly negative for commercial building and sharply lower for engineering construction. </p>

<p>"With several components of fiscal stimulus winding down, delivery on the increased infrastructure pipeline will become a key swing factor in the continued recovery over the rest of 2021," Dr Burn said. </p>

<p>Builders in all sectors said that various delays are still occurring due to COVID-19, including delays to planning and finance applications, delays to essential supplies and localised skilled labour shortages.<br>
 </p>
</body></html>

The Australian PCI expanded in February, with house building activity hitting a record high and apartment building firmly turning positive for the first time since February 2018. 

jchancellor

Apartment building activity turns positive for the first time since February 2018

<html><body><p>The latest dwelling approval data reveals a big gap opening up between house and apartment construction.

IFM economist Alex Joiner advised there had been a "big pullback in building approvals."

Approvals for apartments and townhouses dropped by 22 per cent year on year, the lowest level approved since January 2012, in seasonally adjusted terms.

The approvals were down 39 percent month on month with $5bn of new residential builds committed in the month.

ABS construction statistician Daniel Rossi anticipates the HomeBuilder scheme would continue to support the residential construction sector for the next few months.

“The surge in HomeBuilder applications at the end of 2020, as well as the extension of the program to March, will continue to provide support for private house approvals in the coming months,” Mr Rossi said.

https://twitter.com/IFM_Economist/status/1366548452486705152

But the relative weakness in higher-density approvals compared with the detached segment reflects the headwinds of the pandemic, "particularly very weak migration flows," James Foster, the global macro analyst noted.

Foster suggested the migration restraints were "weighing on developer forecasts for demand."

Approvals need to rebound sharply to match forecast required commencements, UBS economist George Tharenou told The Australian Financial Review, however TD economist Stephen Koukoulas suggested the pullback "may go someway to alleviate the looming oversupply issue."

By contrast to high density approvals, approvals for private houses fell 12 per cent in January to 12,100, following their HomeBuilder-induced all-time December high, to be 38 per cent higher than in January 2020.

Approvals for houses also fell across all states in January.

The HomeBuilder stimulus measures had mostly been directed towards the detached segment of the market, Foster noted.   

</p></body></html>

January dwelling approvals fell from their HomeBuilder high in December, but are still sit at elevated levels.

Big gap emerging between house and apartment construction

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<p>Jefferson Lane, on Palm Beach’s beachfront dress circle, has secured its first two sales.</p>

<p>There are seven whole floor apartments in the boutique development.</p>

<p>The sales both fetched more than $4 million within a month of being released to market on completion, the Gold Coast Bulletin noted.</p>

<p>The 15 Jefferson Lane complex, with a foyer made of marble, was developed by Kazumi Nakagawa and Jason Kennedy.</p>

<p>The project’s sales and marketing agent Deborah Provost said the two whole-floor were middle-level apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="" height="809" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/15_jefferson_2.jpg" width="1200"></p>

<p>The 210 sqm three bedroom apartments overlooking Currumbin Alley were listed as starting from $4.3 million. The exact sale price to the buyers from Brisbane and Northern New South Wales have not been divulged.</p>

<p>The apartments at 15 Jefferson Lane only went on sale once the building was completed late last year.</p>

<p>The apartments have floors made of aged French oak and Italian calacatta oro marble in the kitchens with Gaggenau appliances and European tapware.</p>

<p>Provost, from DP Project Marketing, said the prices “reflected the style of apartment found on Sydney’s exclusive northern beaches yet at a third of the price.”</p>

<p>In late 2019 the ABC reported the City of Gold Coast bowed to local public pressure and recommended a reduction in building heights for further developments along Jefferson Lane.</p>

<p>The maximum height of future developments along the eastern side of Jefferson Lane was set to become 16 metres with a density of one bedroom per 50 square metres under the proposed city plan that changed residential zoned land from medium density to low–medium density.</p>

<p>The changes were to apply between Seventeenth Avenue and Laceys Lane.</p>

<p>H&amp;F's nearby <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/hemingway-1267-1273-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach">Hemingway apartments at Palm Beach</a> are being offered through local agent Justin Schmith, with prices starting from $415,000, with the most expensive apartments priced at $4,495,000.</p>

<p> </p>
</body></html>

Jefferson Lane, Palm Beach development secures first two sales at over $4 million

<html><body>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<p>In some markets and circumstances, declining dwelling commencements can be a fair indicator that prices may be about to follow suit.</p>
<p>I don't want to generalise too much here, because there are of course different sub-markets and sectors.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, note how in Western Australia the dwelling price index peaked in Q1 2014, stalled in Q2 2014, before losing its mojo and beginning to decline in the third quarter of that year, by which time dwelling starts were already on their way down as builders had anticipated the downturn. </p>
<p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><a href="/images/2016/10/17/BA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></span></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/17/BA1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div id="post-body-7273343903178272230" class="post-body entry-content">
<br><div>Why does this happen? </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Predominantly because developers have become aware that demand is fading, and are understandably reluctant to commence a project if the sale of the end product for an acceptable profit is in doubt. </div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">House commencements robust</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Detached houses on average take 6 to 8 months from commencement to completion, although sometimes a bit less than six months in the sprawling greenfield sites of Queensland and the Northern Territory. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Western Australia, detached house commencements peaked in the middle of 2014 as it became increasingly clear that the resources sector was slowing significantly and demand for housing was dropping.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Elsewhere commencements for detached homes remain fairly robust in trend terms, while in Victoria sentiment appears to be positively serene. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is not without reason: population growth in Victoria is tracking at close to 115,000 per annum with inbound interstate migration heading to record highs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With variable rate home loans available from well under 4 per cent buyers for new homes in Melbourne should be sourced reasonably comfortably over the next few quarters.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/10/17/BA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/10/17/BA2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Progressively through the cycles, Sydney is increasingly struggling to provide new build houses at affordable prices - the successive peaks in new house construction are falling - except out towards the western and south-western city fringes where infrastructure is painfully sparse and demand for housing inherently lower. </div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Other dwellings - units</span></strong><br><br>The dynamic for the market in attached dwellings is markedly different!<br><br><div>This construction cycle has seen the approval of more high density and 'high rise' apartments than ever before. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A unit or apartment project might take 15 to 21 months on average to be completed from the point of commencement, which in part explains why completions have taken so long to have an impact through this cycle.<br><br>In Sydney and Melbourne it is usual for apartment projects to take more than 24 months to complete on average, largely due to brownfield site remediation challenges (the figure is much lower in Queensland, for example, at around 19 to 20 months). <br><br>With lead times for new apartments so much longer, developers are often required to ensure a certain percentage of pre-sales before project financing can be secured. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Commencements of attached dwellings remain strong in New South Wales. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, in fact, we should expect attached dwelling commencements to remain higher than their long run averages in Sydney (on average, through the cycle), since over the last three decades fewer houses are being constructed, while population growth today is typically higher. For now at least.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Concentration risk</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) provided some useful analysis of how many inner city apartments are expected to be completed in the next two years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Sydney the number is 10,000, representing a relatively low share of the established dwelling stock when compared to other cites.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney's construction boom is quite widely dispersed, although as usual there will only be a comparatively small increase in the dwelling stock in the beachside eastern suburbs or the treasured garden suburbs of the lower north shore. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In LGAs such as Parramatta, on the other hand, there are still thousands more apartment completions expected, and the north west is another region that is expected to suffer from oversupply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/10/17/RBA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/10/17/RBA.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: Reserve Bank</span></em></div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Melbourne (16,000) and Brisbane (12,000) the number of expected inner city apartment completions is both higher and more concentrated, and as such will also represent a greater percentage increase in the dwelling stock.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This has been well enough known for some time, not least by developers with their ears to the ground. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sure enough, total attached dwelling commencements are now in decline in Victoria and Queensland, while in Western Australia they peaked all the way back in 2014. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/10/17/BA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/10/17/BA3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>In the southern states the figures for attached dwellings are relatively immaterial, and thus are not included for discussion here. </div>
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<div>In both Melbourne and Brisbane it is easily possible to find plenty of examples of apartments being resold for less than they were initially bought for 'as new', a sure sign of the impending downturn.<br><span><br></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span>The wrap</span></span></strong><br><span><br></span><span>Attached dwelling commencements are likely to decline further through 2017 as developers fear that new off-the-plan purchasers are at risk of not settling, particularly those based offshore. </span><br><span><br></span><span>To date, non-settlements have reportedly remained low, and material losses to banks have not yet resulted.</span><br><span><br></span><span>In theory - at least in areas and property types that people actually want to live in! - while credit remains available markets should be self-correcting in time as dwelling commencements fall, and buyers sensing bargains populate the newly supplied markets. </span><br><span><br></span><span>The Reserve Bank took a detailed look at the apartment sector in its bi-annual Financial Stability Review, and concluded:</span><br><em><br></em><em>"Any oversupply in Australia would be more localised to certain geographic areas, and potential price falls tempered as the population moved to absorb the new (and cheaper) supply of housing in these areas over time."</em><br><em><br></em><span>Of course, central banks rarely predict catastrophes, for fear that they may become self-fulfilling. </span><span>Be vigilant!</span>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Demand is fading, let the apartment downturn commence: Pete Wargent

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Despite repeated warnings around apartment oversupply and settlement risk, the number of dwellings being approved for construction across the capital cities remains unquestionably strong.</p>
<p>In July 2016, there were 17,380 capital city dwelling approvals which was the highest number of approvals since October 2015.  It was also the third highest monthly number of capital city dwelling approvals on record.  Despite a recent slowdown in capital city dwelling approvals there was a substantial rebound in July 2016.</p>
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<h3>Monthly and 6 month average number of capital city house and unit approvals</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/10/04/2016-09-26--image1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/04/2016-09-26--image1.png" alt=""></p>
<h3>6 month average number of capital city dwelling approvals</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/10/04/2016-09-26--image2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/04/2016-09-26--image2.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Looking at the split between houses and units over the month, there were 6,482 houses and 10,898 units approved for construction across the combined capital cities.  There have now been more units approved for construction than houses across the combined capital cities for 22 consecutive months.  Over the 12 months to July 2016, 57.9% of all capital city dwelling approvals were for units.</p>
<h3>6 month average number of capital city house approvals</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/10/04/2016-09-26--image3.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/04/2016-09-26--image3.png" alt=""></p>
<h3>6 month average number of capital city unit approvals</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/10/04/2016-09-26--image4.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/04/2016-09-26--image4.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Over the past year, there have been 76,356 capital city houses and 104,835 capital city units approved for construction.  In each of: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Canberra there have been more units than houses approved for construction over the past year.</p>
<p><strong>Sydney</strong> - there were 54,667 dwelling approvals over the past year which is 7.3% higher than the previous year.  This figure comprised of 16,360 house approvals (+3.2% yoy) and 38,307 unit approvals (+9.1% yoy).</p>
<p><strong>Melbourne</strong> – over the year to July 2016 there were 57,428 dwellings approvals which was -0.2% lower over the year.  25,880 of these approvals were for houses and 31,548 were units, with the year-on-year changes recorded at +11.2% and <br>-7.9% respectively.</p>
<p><strong>Brisbane</strong> – The 30,901 dwelling approvals over the past year consisted of 11,210 houses and 19,691 units.  Overall approvals are 4.0% higher over the year with house approvals -1.4% lower and unit approvals 7.4% higher. </p>
<p><strong>Adelaide</strong> – there were 6,119 houses and 3,899 units approved over the past year resulting in 10,018 total approvals.  Over the past year, dwelling approvals are 10.9% higher with house approvals up 9.3% and unit approvals 13.5% higher.</p>
<p><strong>Perth</strong> – the number of annual dwellings approvals fell by -24.3% over the year to 20,963.  Over the year, the 14,202 house approvals were -26.7% fewer than the previous year and the 6,761 unit approvals were -18.6% less than a year ago.</p>
<p><strong>Hobart </strong>– there were only 989 new dwellings approved for construction over the year, 799 of which were houses and 190 units.  House approvals were -22.7% lower year-on-year and unit approvals were down -10.8%.</p>
<p><strong>Darwin</strong> – there were 1,304 dwelling approvals over the past year which was -12.7% lower year-on-year.  Over the year, the 657 house approvals was -22.8% lower than the previous year and the 647 unit approvals were 0.6% higher than the previous year.</p>
<p><strong>Canberra</strong> – there were 1,129 houses and 3,792 units approved for construction over the past 12 months.  There were -8.1% fewer house approvals than over the previous year while unit approvals were 24.7% higher over the year.</p>
<p>Despite policy makers and analysts (including CoreLogic) voicing concerns about the level of housing construction currently underway, particularly for units, approvals in capital cities generally remain unquestionably strong.  From here it will be interesting to see how many of these approvals immediately progress to commencement and ultimately through to a completion.  Tighter lending conditions for both developers and purchasers for off-the-plan units is likely to result in a larger proportion of approvals that don’t proceed through to a finished product.  The data also reiterates why purchasers of off-the-plan units in major capital city housing markets should be very selective with regard to the types of units they purchase.</p>
<p>Importantly, oversupply concerns are most visible across specific and well defined geographic areas and product types. CoreLogic’s Settlement Risk Report identifies the Melbourne inner city and Brisbane inner city as the two markets where the largest amount of unit supply is likely to be delivered over the next 24 months.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
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