Apartment Approvals

National multi-unit approvals increased by 36 per cent in the three months to May 2021 to be 25.7 per cent higher than last year.&nbsp;

It was the strongest quarterly result for apartment approvals since 2018, stated HIA economist, Angela Lillicrap.

They were driven by a rise in apartment approvals in Queensland and Western Australia.

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Matthew Hassan, the Westpac economist noted high rise approvals, where up 186 percent year on year in Queensland and 105 percent in WA.&nbsp;

In NSW highrise approvals were up 59 percent year on year based on the quarterly data, while it was 42 percent in Victoria.

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Hassan noted that high rise approvals were greater than low rise apartment approvals.

NSW lead the low to mid rise apartment growth, up 69 percent, followed by Victoria up 8 percent and Queensland by 4 percent.&nbsp;

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Meanwhile detached building approvals fell back in May from the record level set in April but remain elevated according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics release.

Approvals for private sector houses fell across all mainland states: Western Australia (-18%), South Australia (-16.9%), Queensland (-13.8%), Victoria (-5.8%) and New South Wales (-4.6%), in seasonally adjusted terms. 
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Detached approvals will remain elevated for several more months as approval authorities work through the remaining HomeBuilder projects, stated HIA economist, Angela Lillicrap.

Ryan Felsman, the senior economist at CommSec, noted council approvals to build new homes fell by 7.1 per cent in May after falling by 5.7 per cent in April.&nbsp;

&quot;But approvals are still up 52.7 per cent on the year &ndash; the strongest annual growth rate in 11 years,&quot; Felsman advised.

In May, total house approvals fell by 10.3 per cent (up 53.6 per cent on the year) with apartments up 0.7 per cent (up 51.0 per cent on the year).&nbsp;

Over the past year, 144,827 new houses were approved &ndash; the most for a 12-month period in over 37 years.

AMP Capital cheif economist Shane Oliver noted the decline in building approvals from their peak likely reflects the end of the HomeBuilder subsidy at the end of March, which brought approvals forward.&nbsp;

&quot;However, approvals remain very high, the AIG&rsquo;s June Construction PMI survey continues to point to strong new orders for new houses and the lagged impact of the surge in approvals up until recently points to a significant further rise in dwelling construction activity over the remainder of this year.

&quot;This is good news for continuing economic and jobs recovery.&nbsp;

&quot;Continuing strength in home building against the back drop of the collapse in population growth also holds out the prospect that the property market will move into a situation of underlying oversupply in the next year or so which should ultimately slow the gains in home prices and help improve affordability,&quot; Oliver said.

Multi-unit approvals increased by 36 per cent in the three months to May 2021, the strongest quarterly result since 2018

jchancellor

Apartment approvals see strongest quarterly result since 2018

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) housing approval numbers for January 2019 show a collapse in apartment approvals in Victoria and NSW.
The ABS January 2019 housing data indicates a fall in apartment approvals in Victoria of 55 per cent and in NSW of 41 percent over the last year.
Detached home approvals have remained steady but apartment approvals have dropped dramatically across Australia but particularly in NSW and Victoria.
In January 2018 Victoria had 3362 apartment approvals but this has dropped to only 1,500 in January 2019.
NSW had 3,359 approvals in January 2018 and this has dropped to 1,987 a year later in January 2019.
The drop in apartment approvals in NSW is even more dramatic when measured against the high point of 3,814 approvals in September 2017.
This is a drop of 1,827 from the peak which is a 48 per cent drop.
Drops in the order of 50 percent over a year are highly unusual and it does not look as though the drop is slowing.
Over the last year house approvals dropped from 2,556 in January 2018 to 2,425 in January 2019 which is only a 5 per cent drop.
Clearly the investor market is on hold in the major cities as housing prices fall and this impacts on apartment sales.
The message from the development industry is that pre commitment sales have tapered off dramatically in Sydney so even those apartments that have been approved may not proceed.
The supply chain of new apartments is looking to be very low in the years ahead.
The collapse in approvals for new apartments has been fuelled by negative attitudes about apartment development from politicians and media in the build up to the NSW election on 23 March, the slow -down in funds from China, the falling dwelling prices in the market and a general lack of confidence by investors, owner occupiers and the development industry in new residential property.
Which ever party wins the NSW election will need to address the confidence issue quickly as there are around 300,000 direct jobs in residential development and if half the number of apartments will be built in coming years then half the number of jobs will be needed.
The Urban Taskforce is developing a series of actions that the next NSW government can take to minimise unemployment in the industry.
CHRIS JOHNSON is the Urban Taskforce CEO 
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cjohnson-8xfqfuuCSq

Apartment approvals collapsing in Victoria and New South Wales: Chris Johnson

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Dwelling building approvals fell an as expected 1.5% in October, with unit approvals down 5.4%.
The trend in alterations and additions is falling at around 0.1% a month.
The trend in non-residential approvals is also falling.
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The downtrend in dwelling building approvals and in the value of alternations and additions points to gradual decline in dwelling investment over the year ahead.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/12/4/Approvals2.jpg" alt="">
Meanwhile in other data released today
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoListParagraph">September quarter business indicators were on the soft side with company profits up 1.9%qoq (against market expectations for a 2.4% gain), the wages bill rising just 0.9%qoq (and don’t forget this allows for wages and employment growth), sales volumes slowing to just 0.1%qoq and flat inventories pointing to a detraction from growth of 0.3 percentage points.</li>
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Taken together this points to a bit of a softening in growth after a few stronger quarters and suggests downside risks to our September GDP growth forecast of 0.6%qoq, although there is data on net exports and public demand to be released tomorrow. 
Finally
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoListParagraph">ANZ jobs ads fell 0.3% in November with annual growth slowing to 2.3%yoy pointing to softer jobs growth ahead.</li>
<li class="x_MsoListParagraph">The Melbourne Institute’s Inflation Gauge for November basically stalled with headline inflation slowing to 1.6%yoy and underlying inflation slowing to just 1.3%yoy suggesting that inflation may be actually slowing this quarter.</li>
</ul>
Implications for interest rates
Along with CoreLogic data showing ongoing falls in house prices, today’s data adds to our expectation that RBA rate hikes are at least two years away and that there is rising risk that the next move by the RBA will be a rate cut rather than a rate hike.
SHANE OLIVER is Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital.
 
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soliver-smf6LQXgW9

Unit approvals lead building approvals decline in October: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Dwelling approvals came in slightly below expectations in April with a 5% fall vs consensus forecasts of a 3% decline. Annual growth slowed to 5.2%yr. The detail was mostly on the soft side.
Private detached house approvals were flat in the month but supported by an abnormally large 20% jump in WA which was coming off very weak reads in February-March. We suspect this relates more to processing issues than conditions on the ground which are still not conducive to a pick-up in the west (Perth house prices still declining and rental vacancy rates above 5%). Ex WA, private detached house approvals were much softer, down 6.7%.
Private units were the main driver of the headline decline, posting a sharp 11.5% drop in the April month. Our estimates indicate high rise unit approvals were down over 20%. While extreme volatility makes this sub-segment hard to read, the monthly series looks to be shaping into a second leg lower, as indicated by site purchase data over the past year. That said, it will still take some time to confirm. ‘Medium density’ approvals also declined sharply, by around 6%mth.
By state, the pull back in units was concentrated in Vic (–8.4%mth but still up 25.8%yr). NSW posted a decent 5% gain and Qld nudged up 1.2% but in both cases approvals are still down on a year ago. Approvals have firmed slightly in SA but are showing clear trends lower in both WA (despite this month's jump) and Tasmania.
The value of renovation approvals dipped 0.3% after a 6.5% drop last month. Although approvals are still up 16%yr the monthly trend has swung into a clear decline.
The value of non-res building approvals fell 4%mth to be down nearly 20%yr. The dominant driver continues to be a sharp fall back in the previously very strong office segment with the slowdown concentrated in NSW and Vic.
The latest Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) annual report has also been released with data confirming the slump in foreign residential purchases. It shows a dramatic 67% drop in FIRB approvals to just 13.2k in 2016-17 from just over 40k in 2015-16. Note that these counts include purchases of existing properties and developer 'off the plan’ approvals, the latter counting projects with multiple properties as a single approval. Our estimates suggest the underlying number of new properties purchased via FIRB approvals saw an even bigger fall, from 52k in 2015-16 to 13.5k in 2016-17. Note that the full impact on activity may take time to come through as developers may still be selling properties in projects that obtained FIRB approval in previous years. More generally, the wider foreign buyer share of total market activity looks to have shrunk from 10-15% to 3-4%.
Overall the April data-flow is broadly in line with our expectations that approvals are tilting towards taking another leg lower through 2018 with the main impact on new dwelling construction coming in 2019.
Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Private units the main driver of dwelling approval decline: Westpac

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Apartment approvals are now declining quite quickly in Sydney, while confidence is picking up off the mat in Brisbane, especially for tonwhouses and semi-detached dwellings.
The latest ABS figures relate to the month of February, but with more and more new apartments failing to value up at completion it's only a matter of time before unit approvals in Sydney decline further. 
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Approvals for houses are generally mirroring internal migration trends, with Brisbane and Melbourne attracting the most migrants from elsewhere in Australia, but Perth having experienced an outflow of residents. 
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Totting it all up, there is little evidence yet of a bust in residential construction, with more than 221,000 dwellings approved over the year to February 2018, although we are now well off the peaks.
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The high-rise apartment sector has also calmed down a bit now, with a notable shift towards more approvals for family appropriate dwellings, such as terraces, semi-detached homes, townhomes, and low-rise apartments. 
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Commercial boom
Another point of note is that the annual value of non-residential building approvals have boomed to their highest ever level at just shy of $48 billion, keeping building activity sustained at a high level in 2018. 
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There has been record activity across approvals for warehouses, offices, schools, universities, and aged care facilities. 
This is a positive signal, for there will be a significant hole to plug as Sydney apartment construction fades. 
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Sydney building approvals declining quickly: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Apartment building has started the year with solid growth.
Building Approval results were released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and report that new apartment approvals were up by 5.5% during the three months to January 2018.
Over the year to January 2018, new apartment approvals totalled 106,000 a very high level by historic standards. The annual volume of apartment approvals has been north of the 100,000 mark continuously since early 2015.
New building approvals remain strong in the Melbourne area. This market continues to be supported by high levels of inward migration – a result of the remarkably healthy labour market in the city. Melbourne’s ability to accommodate an expanding population so well has been a big factor in its recent economic success.
Growth in building approvals in Western Australia for two successive months is also a further sign that the down phase of their building cycle ended along with 2017.
New detached house approvals across Australia were largely unchanged over the three months to January 2018. The pipeline of activity on this side of the market also remains high and our expectation is that the market will continue to cool slowly over the year.
The heavy obstacles placed in the way of foreign buyers over the past year and well as the possibility of interest rate rises later this year are still likely to drag new home building activity lower over the medium term."
During the three months to January 2018, Victoria saw the largest increase in new home approvals (+26.0%) with growth also occurring in Tasmania (+7.0%) and Queensland (+1.3%). The ACT was hit by the largest decline in new dwelling approvals (-57.5%), followed by the Northern Territory (-23.2%) and South Australia (-11.2%). There were also reductions in New South Wales (-10.2%) and Western Australia (-1.2%).
Shane Garrett is a senior economist at HIA. He can be <a href="https://hia.com.au/business-information/economic-information/economic-group" target="_blank">contacted here.</a>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

New apartment approvals continue to soar: HIA's Shane Garrett

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Australian apartment building approvals experienced a sharp downturn in March, as approvals dropped by 28.4 percent throughout the month, supporting a fall in total dwelling approvals of 19.9 percent.
Matthew Pollock, national manager of housing at Master Builders Australia, remarked that the statistics highlight the need for the Federal Budget to support a greater level of investment into Australia’s housing sector.
“These latest results suggest the housing boom which has been driven primarily by apartment construction in Sydney and Melbourne is beginning to run out of steam,” he said.
Apartment approvals in New South Wales fell by 27 percent, to 2,526, the lowest level since January 2016. Victoria did not fare much better, with apartment approvals down by 13 percent in March.
However, the value of alterations and additions increased by 1 percent in March and has risen for seven straight months.
“The record rates of new home building last year and this year are a result of the industry playing catch-up after a decade of underinvestment into our housing stock,” Pollock added.
“New home construction will need to be maintained at 200,000 new dwelling per year for at least the next five years if we are to meet the needs of a larger population and ensure supply constraints do not push up future house prices.”
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Budget must support new home building as building approvals fall

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GUEST OBSERVER
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The latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for dwelling approvals show a slow down for NSW particularly for apartments and proposed extra costs could slow housing production even more.
Apartment approvals have dropped by 12% between July and October 2016.
The high point of 4,105 new apartments approved in NSW in July 2016 has dropped to 3,620 in October which is a significant decrease. Housing approvals have also fallen but not by the same amount with all homes dropping from 6,500 in July 2016 to 5,945 by trend in October 2016.
There are a number of signals from the NSW Government that are likely to add more costs to developing apartments and houses and this will add uncertainty to those investing in new housing. The release of the District Plans by the Greater Sydney Commission has highlighted a number of new levies to housing.
An affordable housing levy of up to 10 percent is now proposed in the District Plans as well as statements about Value Capture levies. On top of this the NSW Minister for Planning is encouraging changes to Negative Gearing that would reduce the investment interest in new homes that are needed for the rental market and potential changes to the BASIX sustainability program could lead to additional building costs.
There will be an uncertain environment over the next 12 months as the very broad District Plans are discussed leaving confusion over just which planning rules apply. The council elections at the end of 2017 for amalgamated councils could put decision making on hold.
All of this uncertainty is in the context of an increased number of new homes needed in Sydney yet the uncertainty is likely to slow production down. The Department of Planning has indicated that an average of 36,250 new homes are needed over the next 20 years but the highest production has been 30,000 for the last financial year. The government’s high growth scenario would require 41,500 homes a year.
<a href="/images/2016/12/01/Screen%20Shot%202016-12-01%20at%209.51.02%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/12/01/Screen%20Shot%202016-12-01%20at%209.51.02%20AM.png" alt="">
 
Clearly for Sydney the NSW Government must be encouraging an increase in housing supply of around 10,000 more than is currently occurring but the uncertainty over the District Plans, Affordable Housing levies, Value Capture levies, Council Amalgamations and potential changes to BASIX will slow housing supply down.
What is needed is policies that stimulate more housing production like the Urban Taskforce proposal for 4,000 affordable homes a year rather than a raft of new levies, taxes and an uncertain planning environment. The current slow down on housing approvals should be seen as an early warning that support for housing production is needed.
Chris Johnson is chief executive officer of property development industry group Urban Taskforce and can be contacted <a href="https://www.urbantaskforce.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=97&amp;Itemid=126#.Vdaart55dFI" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Apartment approvals slow in Sydney as more costs are imposed

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The property market may be in for a hard landing as early has 2017, according to investment bank Morgan Stanley’s recent predictions.
The reasons cited are a soft rental market, an oversupply of new apartments and worsening affordability, says an article in the Australian Financial Review based on Morgan Stanley’s outlook.
It predicts apartment approvals to fall by more than half over the next two years as settlement risks and a sharp cut in development financing hurts developers.
"In short, we believe the growth contribution from the housing boom has already peaked and look for a plateau over 2017 and decline through 2018," strategists Daniel Blake, Steven Ye, Chris Nicol and Antony Conte write.
"New apartment projects should slow sharply as focus turns to settlement of the existing pipeline."
The outlook is based on more pessimistic expectations about net migration rates than others, according to Morgan Stanley, and is the result of a new index  — MSHAUS — combining six factors including oversupply, rental vacancy rates that could rise to 4.5 percent from 3 percent in two years, tighter lending standards and lower expected growth in home values.
The index is in a range close to its lowest level since 2004, says the report. 
<a href="/images/2016/10/21/MorganStanley.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/21/MorganStanley.jpg" alt="">
"A growing overbuild, deteriorating rental market conditions, further worsening in housing accessibility, tighter credit supply and more subdued price expectations all suggest a further softening in the outlook over 2017," it says.
Planning approvals of apartments, townhouses and semi-detached homes will fall to 57,000 in the fourth quarter of 2018 from 124,000 in trend terms in July this year, the report says. 
Settlement risk – both for individual buyers and whole developments – is a major concern. 
"In our view, the greatest vulnerability is settlement risk on the 160,000 apartments that we forecast completing through end 2017," the report says. "Listed developers report low failure rates currently, but also confirm credit availability has tightened, especially for foreign investors."
It also applies to buildings, despite the growth of alternative financing sources. 
The report says the nearly $120 billion in settlements due by end-2018 makes this a genuine concern.
The rental market is also the softest since 2003, it says. 
"We think they will weaken further, on the back of an increasing apartment overbuild. Rent inflation has already slowed sharply and is running at a record low of 0.9 percent, year on year."
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