Apartment Affordability

Melbourne apartments values spiked over October, performing&nbsp;as well as the city&#39;s house market&nbsp;over the month, according to the monthly Hedonic Home Value Index by CoreLogic.

Apartment values rose one per cent, their highest rise since CoreLogic&#39;s May report, when there was one per cent gains over the April

Melbourne&#39;s rolling quarterly gains are now at 1.7 per cent,&nbsp;following 0.2 per cent gains over September and 0.5 per cent over August.

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Across 2020, Melbourne apartment values were flat, and so far in 2021 they&#39;ve grown 7.8 per cent, to a new median $621,000. The median at the start of the year was $576,000.

It&#39;s another month of gains for Melbourne apartments, which haven&#39;t seen a decline in 2021 despite the continued shutdown of immigration due to border closures.

The narrowing gap between house and unit performance comes as house affordability reaches record levels. Over October, that gap only widened across Sydney and Brisbane, with all the rest of the capitals seeing units either perform better, or the same, as houses over the period.

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&ldquo;As housing becomes less affordable, we expect to see more demand deflected towards the higher density sectors of the market,&quot; CoreLogic&#39;s research director, Tim Lawless, said.&nbsp;

&quot;House prices continue to outpace wages by a ratio of around 12:1,&quot; Lawless noted.

&quot;This is one of the reasons why first home buyers are becoming a progressively smaller component of housing demand.&quot;

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Lawless&nbsp;expects the flick to higher density&nbsp;to occur most prevalently&nbsp;in Sydney than anywhere else in the country. The gap between the median house and unit value is now nearly $500,000. In Melbourne it&#39;s around $350,000. Melbourne&#39;s house median was $972,000 after the one per cent October gains.

&quot;With investors becoming a larger component of new housing finance, we may see more demand flowing into medium to high density properties,&quot; Lawless added.

&quot;Investor demand across the unit sector could be bolstered as overseas borders open, which is likely to have a positive impact on rental demand, especially across inner city unit precincts.&rdquo;

National rents were up 0.7 per cent&nbsp;in October, roughly equivalent to the September&#39;s 0.6 per cent rise.

Apartment values rose one per cent, their highest rise since CoreLogic's May report, when there was one per cent gains over the April.

Joel Robinson

Melbourne apartment insights: What happened to Melbourne apartment values over October?

Melbourne&#39;s apartment values continued to grow over September, posting 0.2 per cent gains according to the property data firm CoreLogic&#39;s monthly index.

It&#39;s another month of gains for Melbourne apartments, which haven&#39;t seen a decline in 2021 despite the continued shutdown of immigration due to border closures.

Across 2020 Melbourne apartment values were flat, and so far in 2021 they&#39;ve grown 6.8 per cent, to a new median $619,000. The median at the start of the year was $576,000.

Housing affordability continues to worsen nationally, as houses in most of&nbsp;the major capitals outstripped the growth in the apartment market, the exceptions being Hobart and Darwin.

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CoreLogic&rsquo;s national home value index saw dwellings (houses and units combined) jump&nbsp;another 1.5 per cent&nbsp;in September, taking Australian housing values 17.6 per cent higher over the first nine months of the year and 20.3 per cent&nbsp;higher over the past 12 months. The annual growth rate is now tracking at the fastest pace since the year ending June 1989.

Despite the prolonged growth of dwelling prices, the growth has eased back slightly from the peak growth rate in March nationally dwelling values increased by 2.8 per cent.

CoreLogic&rsquo;s research director, Tim Lawless, believes the slowing growth conditions are the result of higher barriers to entry for non- home owners along with fewer government incentives to enter the market.

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&ldquo;With housing values rising substantially faster than household incomes, raising a deposit has become more challenging for most cohorts of the market, especially first home buyers,&quot; Lawless said.

&quot;Sydney is a prime example where the median house value is now just over $1.3 million. In order to raise a 20 per cent&nbsp;deposit, the typical Sydney house buyer would need around $262,300.

&quot;Existing home owners looking to upgrade, downsize or move home may be less impacted as they have had the benefit of equity that has accrued as housing values surged.

The number of owner-occupier first home buyer loans has fallen by -20.5 per cent between January and July, as the impact of the tapering of government stimulus continues to show.

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Lawless notes that over the same period,&nbsp;the number of first home buyers taking out an investment housing loan has increased, albeit from a low base, by 45 per cent.

&quot;This suggests more first home buyers are choosing to &lsquo;rent vest&rsquo; as a way of getting their foot in the door,&rdquo; Lawless said.

The September quarter saw unit values rising faster than house values across regional Australia.

&quot;This is probably a reflection of stronger demand for downsizing options and holiday homes in popular coastal markets,&rdquo; Lawless suggested.

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Investors are back looking at the local apartment market. Unit rents now rising faster than houses across Melbourne (1.3 per cent for units, 1.1 per cent for houses).

&ldquo;This is a significant change in rental market trends, where previously the unit precincts, especially inner-city high-rise areas of Melbourne and Sydney, were acting as a drag on rental growth,&rdquo; Lawless said.

Yields are low in the major capitals, however so are investor mortgage rates, Lawless notes.&nbsp;

&quot;In July, the average three-year fixed rate for a new investor loan was 2.38 per cent, while variable rates were averaging 3.01 per cent.&quot;

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Lawless says the coming months are likely to see advertised stock levels move higher.

&quot;The spring selling season has been delayed to some extent by lockdowns in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra, however the recent trend has shifted towards a rising number of new listings.

&quot;As demand becomes more constrained from worsening affordability and potentially tighter lending conditions, advertised stock levels may start to normalise over the final quarter of the year.

&quot;This could take further heat out of the market as buyers benefit from more choice and less urgency.&quot;

The number of owner-occupier first home buyer loans has fallen by -20.5 per cent between January and July, as the impact of the tapering of government stimulus continues to show

Melbourne apartment insights: What happened to Melbourne apartment values in September?

Apartment values across Melbourne rose 0.5 per cent over August, according to the latest data released by property data firm CoreLogic.

The&nbsp;August gains put apartment values up 1.6 per cent over the quarter, after 0.4 per cent growth over July and 0.8 per cent in June.

Over the year to date, values are up 6.6 per cent, with the median now sitting at $615,909. The median apartment price at the start of 2021 was $577,000.

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Melbourne house values rose 1.4 per cent over August, marking another month where house performance continues to outstrip apartments, although the gap is starting to narrow given renewed housing affordability constraints.

Throughout the first quarter of the year, capital city house values were rising approximately 1.1 percentage points faster than units each month. By August the average performance gap reduced to 0.7 percentage points.

CoreLogic&#39;s research director Tim Lawless believes the convergence of growth in house values and unit values could be another demonstration of affordability becoming more challenging.

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&ldquo;The narrowing gap between house and unit value growth is most noticeable in Australia&rsquo;s most expensive city, Sydney, where the monthly growth rate for houses was 2 percentage points higher than units in March.

&quot;That &lsquo;gap&rsquo; has now reduced to 0.6 percentage points in August.

&quot;Based on median values, Sydney units cost almost $470,000 less than a house. At the same time, the growth gap between houses and units in Melbourne and Brisbane has widened.&rdquo;

Unit rents are starting to rise in Sydney and Melbourne, which is a good metric for investors to follow. Australia&#39;s two biggest capitals were the hardest hit by the strict border closures and lack of international migration.

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Nationally, rents have lifted by 8.2% over the 12 months ending August, the largest rise in rents since 2008.

&ldquo;The weaker trend in unit rents across Australia&rsquo;s two largest cities is likely a reflection of their greater exposure to temporary overseas migrants as a source of rental tenancy, especially foreign students who would normally underpin inner city high rise rental demand, Lawless says.

&quot;The sharp drop in demand due to closed borders has been exacerbated by high supply levels as both cities come out of an unprecedented surge in inner city apartment construction,&rdquo; Lawless added.

Sydney unit rents have consistently risen each month during 2021, while in Melbourne, unit rents have been rising since June.

Unit rents are starting to rise in Sydney and Melbourne, which is a good metric for investors to follow

What happened to Melbourne apartment values over August?

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New research has ranked Sydney as one of the most unaffordable cities in the world – with Melbourne not far behind.
Property research firm RiskWise  places Sydney second on its analysis and Melbourne 11th.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/3/Unit%20unaffordability%20-%20World_MEL.jpg" alt="" style="font-size: 12.16px;">
RiskWise CEO Doron Peleg said that the analysis looked at only units 105 square metres in size and not average-sized dwellings, like the Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey does.
“The problem with Demographia's method is that it does not compare apples to apples,” Peleg said.
The Demographia survey ranked Hong Kong as the world’s least affordable city, followed by New York, Tokyo and London with Sydney was ranked 9th and Melbourne coming in at No.11.
Peleg said that in Hong Kong the average-sized unit is only 46 square metres, while in Sydney it is 105 square metres.
“Sydney and Melbourne are not as bad as first thought when compared to other cities,” he said.
“And yes, while in general families cannot afford a 105 square metre unit, the situation in other places is significantly more serious.
“Both Sydney and Melbourne, as global cities, could potentially be even less affordable.”
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Peleg said that Victoria was ranked as more affordable sue to the greater supply of units and less capital growth.
"However, while in the last five years capital growth of units has been good, it has not been as good as Sydney,” stated Peleg.
Sydney prices have fallen 4.5% year on year, while Melbourne prices have also decelerated as lending restrictions and the Banking Royal Commission has clamped down on the market.
"The needs of families differ from those of singles and couples and many new apartments are not suitable, meaning there is an imbalance between the supply of units to the market needs,” Peleg said.
“Whether you take a world view or an Australian one, there appears to be a complete disconnect between the price of units suitable for families to the median household income.
“The people who own the majority of residential properties that are suitable for families are mainly higher income earners and investors.
“They are not standard household earners. They are, largely, people at the top 50% of income earners or investors who are cashed-up."
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Sydney the second least affordable city in the world for housing: RiskWise

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GUEST OBSERVER
The planning system in New South Wales must support apartments that are affordable.
Our research into the cost of apartments in Sydney has found that planning rules make them more expensive than in other Australian cities.
We have outlined the results of our research in a publication titled ‘Affordable Apartments’ which looks at global trends to help reduce the cost of urban housing.
In New York there has been a move towards ‘Micro Apartments’ that can be as small as 30 square metres as long as they are located close to jobs and amenities. Sydney can learn from the New York initiatives as part of a focus on housing affordability.
One area where initiatives are being undertaken in NSW is the move towards New Generation Boarding Houses.
A number of small studio apartments of around 25 square metres are able to share common facilities in buildings that are only built to rent.
These smaller units are able to bypass many of the NSW planning rules on solar access and minimum sizes under the Affordable Rental Housing State Environmental Planning Policy (SEPP) 2009.
The NSW Government should encourage a greater use of building like McCarthy Maisonettes as outlined in our publication.
The Urban Taskforce research also compared the NSW Apartment Design Guide requirements with the Victorian equivalent Better Apartment Design Standards document and found that $150,000 could be saved from the purchase price of a NSW two bed apartment if the Victorian rules were applied.
The Urban Taskforce believes the NSW Government needs to seriously look at its well-meaning planning rules that apply to apartment design in the interest of affordability.
A special category should be established for Affordable Apartments in urban locations where there are many amenities including public transport.
Another category should be established for high rise city locations where it is difficult to achieve the winter sun access to 70 percent of apartments required by the Apartment Design Guide.”
The NSW Apartment Design Guide has 180 pages packed with micro details while the Victorian Better Apartment Standards which was produced after an analysis of the NSW version has only 40 pages with much more flexibility.
The Victorian document took affordability into account in its approach to setting planning rules for apartments.
The development industry in NSW is keen to help consumers with the delivery of more affordable apartments but this will need a number of planning standards to be amended.
The Urban Ideas publication on “Affordable Apartments” can be accessed <a href="https://www.urbantaskforce.com.au/urbanideas/august2017/?page=1" target="_blank">here</a>.
CHRIS JOHNSON is chief executive officer of property development industry group Urban Taskforce and can be contacted <a href="https://www.urbantaskforce.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=97&amp;Itemid=126#.Vdaart55dFI" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Apartment Affordability

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