Amazon

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GUEST OBSERVER
E-commerce giant Amazon has struck a deal to acquire Whole Foods Market, an American supermarket chain with more than 400 stores.
The move has put even more pressure on Australian retailers as Amazon sets up shop in Australia. 
But the real threat to Australian retail lies in Amazon’s business model. It is a low-margin retailer that owns several other highly profitable and fast-growing businesses, such as cloud services. These other businesses can and do cross-subsidise its retail operations.
JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman have suggested they will compete with Amazon on price, but given the cost structure of Australian retailers this may not be possible.
Amazon is very lean
While Amazon is extremely large, it is very lean. In 2016 alone, Amazon sold US$94.7 billion of product globally. But the cost of buying (or manufacturing) these products was US$88.3 billion, leading to a gross profit of just US$6.4 billion. 
This means the mark-up Amazon puts on its products is very small. For example, in 2016 Amazon’s gross profit margin (gross profit divided by sales revenue) was just 6.8%. JB Hi-Fi had a margin of 21.9%, Woolworths26.8%, Wesfarmers 31.0%, Harvey Norman 31.4%, Myer 42.1% and Super Retail Group a whopping 43.4%.
But Australian retailers also face high operational costs (wages, advertising, marketing and leases). The two largest, Wesfarmers and Woolworths, both have operating expenses in excess of 24.0% of sales revenue, while Myer, Super Retail Group and Harvey Norman are all around 40.0%. JB Hi-Fi is an outlier at just 16.3%.
Another important measure to consider is the net profit margin. This shows what percentage of each dollar of sales the company ultimately earns after all costs (including tax) are factored in. Net margin is calculated by dividing net profit after tax by sales revenue.
The net profit margins for Australian retailers are, for the most part, quite low – around 2-3%. This means they don’t have much room to move on price. If they drop prices, many will become unprofitable. So even if Amazon doesn’t start a price war in Australia, its business model is such that prices will be extremely competitive. 
Amazon has other businesses
Most Australian retailers are only retailers. Some of the larger groups, such as Myer and Wesfarmers, operate across a few industries. But they ultimately still earn nearly all their revenue from buying and then re-selling physical products.
Amazon, on the other hand, has a profitable and booming services business. Its “services sales” represents about US$41.3 billion in sales, or 30% of its revenue. This covers third-party seller fees (Amazon charges other companies for access to its marketplace and warehouses), Amazon Web Services (a fast-growing provider of cloud services), digital subscriptions, advertising services and co-branded credit card fees.
In its 2016 annual report, Amazon reported US$12.2 billion in revenue from Amazon Web Services alone. The scariest thing for Australian retailers is that this has increased four-fold since 2013, and is responsible for nearly 75% of Amazon’s operating profit. 
Amazon, then, not only has a large, low-margin online retail offering, but is supported by a fast-growing, high-margin cloud service. 
Finding new ways to compete
Most Australian retailers will need to look at other ways of saving costs if they are to remain competitive with Amazon. For example, Coles and Woolworths can put even more pressure on suppliers to reduce their costs. Coles has recently signalled that it will pursue this strategy. And all of our retailers can try to reduce the cost of leases, and shift or reduce staff.
The small margins of most Australian retailers mean reducing prices alone isn’t a viable long-term strategy, especially as Amazon Web Services gains steam and Amazon is profitable in other countries.
Not every retailer will come under the same pressure, though. In the short term at least, groceries are still likely to be purchased in stores. But the same can’t be said of clothing and electronics. This means Woolworths and Wesfarmers should not be as concerned as Myer, Super Retail Group and JB Hi-Fi. 
The answer for retailers may be to look past price and compete on other aspects of the shopping experience, such as convenience or customer service. But only time will tell if that’s what the Australian public wants.
David Bond is Senior Lecturer, Accounting Discipline Group, University of Technology Sydney and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-bond-172639" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Amazon poses a double threat to Australian retailers

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GUEST OBSERVER
There was genuine positivity at this year’s Australian Booksellers’ Association Conference in Melbourne in June.
The mood was one of camaraderie and optimism at the sharing of good news. And it only brightened with the news that our National Bookshop Day was to be rebranded this year as Love Your Bookshop Day. Why not?
Saturday is that day. Expect to see your local bookshop buntinged, postered, streamered and perhaps offering special bargains. Assuming, of course, you have a local bookshop. 
Store numbers have steadied in recent years and, as was reported at the conference, both independent and chain or franchise booksellers are expanding. Children’s book sales in particular are performing well. (“The bookshop is dead. Long live the bookshop,” reads a plaque at Embiggen Books in Melbourne’s CBD.) 
But over the past couple of decades the sector has wrestled with the challenges of superstores, GST, the GFC, one-sided international post deals, ebooks and online-only undercutters.
Now the greatest of these online stores, certainly in terms of market share, will soon be competing with Australian bookstores from a new base here. Amazon has secured a massive distribution centre site near Dandenong in outer-eastern Melbourne. Dire predictions for parts of the Australian retail sector have already been made. 
Local booksellers too will need to adjust to this new environment, in which Amazon will likely reduce its delivery time and charges significantly. This will place downward pressure on book prices, and thus booksellers’ margins and capacity to survive.
Amazon has itself experimented with physical bookstores in recent times, to underwhelming reviews, but its primary focus has, of course, been on being able to offer “everything” at the “everyday low prices” of its American precursors (and sometime role models), Walmart and Costco.
Today’s booksellers must choose what to put on their shelves from around 7,000 new releases each month. As all of these will be on the “shelves” of Amazon, local booksellers will need to maintain an intimate knowledge of what will appeal to their customer base.
This curatorial role, which has always been part of what good booksellers do, takes on extra importance in the digital age. Curating, one might say, is the opposite approach to that of Amazon, which instead expertly removes barriers to purchasing, encouraging impulse buying. The extra services local booksellers provide, in addition to low prices and the range of stock, will likely need beefing up also. Community building will be the order of the day.
The current shrinkage of review pages of broadsheet newspapers will also hurt many bookshops, as they depend on a degree of consensus as to what is important and valuable to read.
Price instability may well grow in Australia with the arrival of Amazon. Publishers have argued over the decades that this instability also discourages consumer confidence.
The Productivity Commission doesn’t accept arguments in favour of maintaining price levels for some products in order to keep the costs of others down. But regulatory bodies have special challenges when confronted with large, diverse conglomerates, such as Amazon. It has the capacity to drop prices for products in one category (such as books) to maximise competitiveness, while the overall bottom line is propped up by more profitable parts of the business (such as Amazon Web Services).
In the face of aggressive price cutting from firms like … well, Amazon … regulatory bodies concerned with fair prices for consumers are yet to find an effective means of properly accounting for the fact that its success has been partly based on exploiting publicly developed (and funded) technology and infrastructure, determined strategies of tax minimisation, aggressive use of IP and patent law, and sustained intransigence towards its workforce’s self-organisation and unionisation.
On Tuesday morning this past week, a crowd of parents and kids waited in the cold out the front of our local suburban bookshop till, at 9 o’clock, they could rush in and buy the latest Treehouse book, by Andy Griffiths. The bookseller handed out free copies of a quality cookbook to parents. Community spirit, human connectedness and customer loyalty all bloomed nicely.
As the legendary Collins bookseller, Michael Zifcack, recalled in his memoirs, “I realised early on that customer service was the secret of successful bookselling.”
I’ll be heading to that local shop on Saturday, but can also, of course, appreciate the access to more or less every available product that online shopping provides. No doubt there is room for both retail models within our society.
What remains most important, when thinking about the health of the book industry here, is that no matter how cheap we make these products, there won’t be effective demand for them unless people have the time and desire to read. 
This desire, in turn, rests most powerfully on the belief that what one knows and says matters; that democracy, its public sphere, and reason, evidence and logic are the driving forces of one’s society. For all of us, that challenge is ongoing and, broadly speaking, we will get the books and bookshops we deserve.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nathan-hollier-13619" target="_blank">Nathan Hollier</a> is Director, Monash University Publishing, Monash University and author for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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Love of bookshops in a time of Amazon and populism

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GUEST OBSERVER
Martin Currie Australia, active equity affiliate of Legg Mason, noted that contrary to some analyst reports, the entry of online retailer Amazon in Australia could boost the domestic retail sector instead of a ‘doomsday scenario’ for the sector.
It’s clear that some hedge funds have been shorting discretionary retailers such as JB Hi-Fi (JBH) and Harvey Norman (HVN) since the market became aware of Amazon’s Australia strategy to open distribution centers later this year.
They have based their analysis looking at the demise of bricks and mortar retailers in the US, a very mature market, due to the ‘Amazon effect’.
However, before we jump to any such conclusions in Australia, it’s worth looking at a comparable company to JBH, which is Best Buy USA.
Best Buy reported earnings which excluding abnormal items were up 40 percent pcp for the first quarter 2017. The share price rose 22 percent.
We believe that given JBH and HVN are very dominant and profitable retailers with leverage to population growth and housing, similar to Best Buy USA, they will be well placed when Amazon begins to operate in Australia.
Wesfarmers (WES) and Woolworths (WOW) are also well prepared for the entry of Amazon with online home delivery already a significant part of their customer focus and innovation.
The other key point is that WOW, Coles (owned by WES) and JBH are located in large shopping centers around Australia.
And there are considerable differences between the US and Australian retail sector that need to be taken into account when considering the likely impact of Amazon’s entry into the local market.
Australian retail centers are better placed then their US counterparts.
In the US, supermarkets are not co-located with discretionary shops, so they are separate trips which affects foot traffic. Retail space per capita is multiple times greater in the US than in Australia.
Australian online retail continues to grow towards market share levels seen in the US, so we may see a shift of market share within those online sales to Amazon.
Overall, we think the physical mall winners will be those that can fulfil the role of the town square and offer an experience to the consumer. Australian shopping malls already have a variety of restaurants, movie theatres, free car parking and entertainment.
We also think that real estate investment trusts with logistics assets will benefit from Amazon’s entry and moves by other retailers to beef up their online presence. 
Reece Birtles is a chief investment officer, Martin Currie Australia and can be contacted <a href="https://www.martincurrie.com/institutional/australia" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Amazon to boost Australian retail sector: Reece Birtles

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GUEST OBSERVER
The loss of the high-value young grocery shopper is the biggest risk facing Coles and Woolworths when Amazon disrupts the Australian grocery market.
According to a major new survey of 20,000 Australians conducted by the Roy Morgan Research Institute, while younger Australians like Millennials represent future value for supermarket giants, they also represent the consumers most at risk from the Amazon juggernaut expected to sweep Australian shores in coming months.
An advance briefing by Roy Morgan on their Supermarket Survival Survey revealed that 73 per cent of the highest value younger consumers known as NEO-Millennials already shop online. And they are 85 per cent more likely than the average Australian to shop online. They and their equivalents in Gen X are the fertile feeding ground for Amazon in Australia.
Despite this major shift in the future of shopping behaviour, the survey reveals that supermarket chains have been focusing on what is known as ‘owned media’ – media channels they own and run very well. The best examples of supermarket owned media are their magazines and catalogues.
Their magazine titles, for example, dominate the entire magazine market. The Coles Magazine is Australia’s most read title with 3.2 million readers of an average issue, ahead of Woolworth’s Fresh on 2.7 million readers – both well ahead of Better Homes and Gardens (1.81m), Women’s Weekly (1.76m) and Woman’s Day (1.56m).
However, the research reveals that incumbent supermarket brands may need a new approach to their magazines and catalogues – particularly with the spectre of Amazon looming on the horizon.
The survey reveals that only 2.2 per cent of Australians find magazines useful when purchasing groceries, compared to 49 per cent who find catalogues a useful tool. The Internet (20 per cent), newspapers (6 per cent) and television (5 per cent) are all ahead of magazines as grocery influencers.
In the supermarket category, catalogues rule. In an average 4 weeks 7,179,000 Australians read a Woolworths catalogue, and 7,115,000 read a Coles catalogue. This balance in favour of Woolworths is borne out in the shopping behaviour of Australians with 4.5 million mainly shopping at Woolworths compared to 4.3 million at Coles.
However, future shareholder value and profitable growth of Australia’s supermarket brands lie in the hands of the younger generations like Millennials – particularly the highest value NEO-Millennials. Australia’s 1.5 million NEO-Millennials are even less influenced by magazines with only 1.7 per cent finding them useful when shopping for groceries – in stark contrast to the power of the Internet with 39 per cent using it to inform their grocery spending. Ninety-one per cent of NEO-Millennials are in the top third of discretionary spenders in the economy – and supermarkets are chock-full of discretionary products.
Alarmingly, this high-value supermarket shopper is 157 per cent more likely than the average Australian to buy groceries online. Why is this alarming? While it’s true that a quarter (25.4 per cent) of all Australians say they’d like to buy their groceries online, only 3.7 per cent actually do, seemingly quarantining the big supermarket brands from the Amazon threat.
Elsewhere in the world, the average online grocery behaviour of Amazon-targeted countries is reportedly between 25 and 30 per cent, enabling Amazon to simply transfer online shoppers from existing brands to their Amazon Fresh or Amazon Prime offerings.
In Australia, however, with less than 4 per cent shopping for groceries online, Amazon has to grow the pie before it can take its slice. So, NEO-Millennials are a juicy target for Amazon. They spend their lives online and their online grocery shopping is already approaching 10 per cent. Add to that the fact that sixteen per cent of NEO-Millennials already are Amazon shoppers – 82 per cent more than the average Australian – they have to be considered easy pickings for Amazon.
And because they are younger, they represent lifetime value to the big supermarket chains.
So, how can Australia’s supermarket brands best prepare themselves for the Amazon assault? Certainly not on price or delivery. On all available data, Coles and Woolworths simply cannot win a price war with Amazon. And, despite Coles’ current fulfilment trial using UberRUSH to deliver groceries in Melbourne, the incumbents can’t win on delivery either.
An incumbent supermarket brand may have great supply chain, discounts, sale events, efficient &amp; inexpensive fulfilment, but it had better not have the second-best discounts &amp; fulfilment. When Amazon hits town, every retail brand in its merchandise category line-of-fire will be second best.
The American price / delivery battlefield provides stark evidence. Just look at Walmart, legendary in the US for the cheapest prices across its myriad grocery and general merchandise categories. A US study by Business Insider found that over a diverse basket of 25 grocery &amp; electronics products, Amazon was $US161.05 cheaper than Walmart. And Amazon keeps gazumping it on delivery cost and speed. Unimaginable just a few years ago.
So, what then of the incumbents’ catalogues and magazines? Are they part of the solution?
According to the Supermarket Survival Survey, magazines have a future role to play if the big incumbents adopt the new mantra of ‘think small’. The Supermarket Survival Survey reveals that the biggest threat to the supermarket categories is losing the high-value cohorts across younger generations, those shoppers most likely to already shop online and already consider a familiar Amazon more frictionless, relevant and trustworthy than their brands. These are the consumers motivated by the personal, the local, the handmade and who are moving towards zero friction and the ‘right to forget money’. They are ripe for disruption.
To retain them, Coles or Woolworths might, for example, position Amazon as the global giant, and then make their digital catalogue and magazine content relevant to different (small) communities – geographic communities, NEO-Millennials and communities of interest. Such a strategy would serve to replace the rapidly disappearing local media, highlighting not only the incumbents’ ubiquity but also their local proximity and relevance. Amazon will win on price and delivery but can never win on local authenticity.
So, the catalogues and magazines published by the supermarket incumbents have an opportunity to become their most potent weapons in the looming grocery war, but only with granular sociographic mapping of consumer types, like NEO-Millennials – way beyond geo-demographics and into the realms of local relevance and authenticity.
Dr Ross Honeywill is a social scientist and internationally published author. Executive Director of the Centre for Social Economics, he advises national and global clients on the peak-value consumer ecosystem and can be contacted <a href="https://rosshoneywill.com" target="_blank">here</a>.
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New Amazon threat to Coles and Woolworths

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Amazon has leased a 43,000sq m industrial facility in Sydney's Moorebank, at the Goodman Centenary Distribution Centre.
It is due to start operations in the second half of the year, Robert Bruce, Amazon Australia's operations director said.
"We are thrilled to be establishing our next fulfilment centre in Sydney and working with incredible people in the local community around Moorebank.
"Sydney represents another important development for our growth strategy in Australia, following a steady and progressive increase in customer demand," Robert Bruce said.
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"This new facility builds on the capabilities of our first centre in Dandenong South, allowing us to continue to fulfil our commitment to fast and reliable deliveries for Australian customers."
<div id="article-inline-ad">Amazon's Australian debut was in Melbourne's Dandenong South last year, securing a 24,387sq m former Bunnings distribution centre from Melbourne's Pellicano family.</div>
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The new Sydney warehouse would allow the company to speed up delivery to customers, Amazon said.
Liverpool Mayor Wendy Waller was pleased to welcome Amazon which employs around 1200 already in Australia.
“This is a great win for our local community; the Amazon facility will be a boon for South West Sydney and we look forward to having good jobs for people close to where they live and having a partner involved in the local community.”
 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Amazon takes Moorebank warehouse space in first South West Sydney lease 

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Industrial property group Goodman Group has pre-leased an additional one million square feet of logistics space to Amazon at its Goodman Commerce Center Eastvale, California.
Sydney-based Goodman will build the logistics centre for Amazon. The US ecommerce giant is expected to move into the facility in 2018. 
The 205 acre mixed-use development will offer a variety of space options, including distribution, business park, retail and medical. 
Anthony Rozic, CEO of Goodman North America said: “Our e-commerce customers require modern, flexible design solutions that cater to their diverse operational needs. Our success is based on our understanding of these needs and our track record of on-time delivery to enable the successful execution of our customers' growth strategies.” 
Goodman’s network spans 16 countries and has more than $33 billion of assets under management. 
The Eastvale project is one of several in Goodman’s US$2.3 billion identified US development pipeline, which will provide 17.7 million square feet of Class A logistics space. 
Over the last 18 months, Goodman has completed 3.3 million square feet of Class A development product in the Inland Empire West and Greater Los Angeles logistics markets, with a further 2.6 million square feet currently under construction.  
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Goodman announces 1 million sqft lease with US Amazon

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Retail giant Amazon’s entry into Sydney may not be all that smooth, as its huge operational requirements may be difficult to manage initially, at least.
Amazon’s value proposition combined with its need for immense space may make it difficult to find a suitable base within Sydney, says a new report from Colliers International.
The report studied Amazon’s footprint in other global markets to determine how the online retailer would make its mark on the Sydney industrial market.
The sheer volume required by Amazon, combined with the need to deliver produce within an extremely short time-frame, means that it may struggle to find a space that meets its needs within the inner-Sydney ring, it said. 
“Amazon’s value proposition lies in its ability to offer an extensive range of consumer products at low prices by providing a unique customers experience which is dependent on delivering goods with speed, elasticity and mobility,’ said Colliers International research manager, Sass J-Baleh.
To fulfil their value proposition, Amazon’s key activity boils down to its logistics and distribution process – it requires a sufficient supply chain management. This means Amazon’s key resource is its Transit Warehouses/ Fulfilment centres, which typically occupy 100,000 sqm of space.
The report found that Amazon’s Fulfilment Centres (FCs), which is where a large majority of the goods are packed and distributed, are typically 100,000 sqm, with a global average of 64,000 sqm.
The company also relies on Fresh Food Distribution Centres, Regional Sortation Centres, Delivery Stations and Prime Now Hubs which typically occupy an average of 40,000 sqm, 30,000 sqm, 10,000 sqm and 6,000 sqm respectively.
Amazon currently operates in 14 countries and has 393 active facilities with a combined facility space of 13 million sqm. 
The Colliers report draws parallels with Canada and certain other countries to identify how Amazon might operate in Australia. 
“Canada is a country with a population greater than that of Australia, and they have only established six facilities with the population distribution concentrated into a small number of cities,” J-Baleh said.
“We already know that Amazon has recently secured one of its purpose-built FCs at Eastern Creek within Sydney’s Outer West sub-market, that is around 100,000 sqm.”
“This is advantageous as it is adjacent to the Sydney Orbital Network, providing direct access to a large share of the NSW market.”
“However, with over 64 percent of the total NSW population currently concentrated within the Sydney Metropolitan, Amazon may struggle to find facilities which will allow them to adhere to their 1-2 hour delivery time within this area.”
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Amazon faces tough entrance to the Australian market

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Amazon's arrival in the Australian retail market has been pinpointed as likely given suggestions it has secured its first distribution centre in Melbourne's outer south eastern suburbs.
Amazon has agreed to lease the 24,387 square metre former Bunnings distribution centre at 29 National Drive in Dandenong (above) within the M2 Industry Park, owned by Melbourne's wealthy Pellicano family, according to the AFR.
The vacant A-Grade warehouse, which stands on a large 7.7 hectare site, could potentially be doubled in size to suit Amazon's needs. 
It has been available for lease since October 2014 with an asking rent of $75 per square metre (or $1.8 million per annum).
The online giant, founded by Jeff Bezos in 1994, has been scouting for logistics hubs in Sydney and Melbourne since revealing its ambitions earlier this year to offer it full retail offering in Australia,
In Sydney, it is understood there's a deal looming between Amazon and industrial developer Goodman Group on a large fulfillment facility in the west, rumoured to be the Oakdale Industrial Estate, on Old Wallgrove Road, at Eastern Creek. 
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Amazon secures first Aussie distribution centre

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spost-fCfKtoCdFu

Right Place, Right Time - Build An Amazon Business Today!

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The Amazon effect has clearly set in.
Long before the online retail giant stepped into Australia, there was nervousness among retailers here.
Now, with Amazon officially launching its marketplace, Myers and Woolworths are among those who are preparing for the increased competition. So are other leading retailers such as JB Hifi and Harvey Norman, among others.
Myer has come up with The Myer Market, which launched recently and is a marketplace that allows third parties to sell their wares, similar to eBay.
At Woolworth's annual general meeting, its Chairman Gordon Cairns said the supermarket chain was ramping up its online offering in response to Amazon’s entry.
Meanwhile, at Mirvac's annual meeting in November, its chief executive Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz said she was looking forward to Amazon’s arrival.
"Our view is that the fear is far worse than the reality's going to be," Lloyd-Hurwitz told The Australian Financial Review after the AGM.
Mirvac’s portfolio includes the country's most productive mall, the Broadway, in uptown Sydney.
Mirvac's specialty sales growth, a key indicator, is also rising. In the September quarter, specialty sales growth hit 6 per cent among Mirvac's malls, unlike many other malls 
As online shopping surges, it has also had another effect.
Real estate developers are investing record sums of money into new warehouse space, building bigger, taller structures to meet the needs of e-commerce - and the robots that help it along, Bloomberg reported.
Builders spent $US2.7 billion on US warehouse construction in October, the most since the census started keeping track in 1993.
The size of the average warehouse completed this year was 188,000 square feet, more than double the size in 2001, according to a CBRE report cited by Bloomberg.
"It's the notion of the endless aisle," said Joe Dunlap, a managing director at CBRE.
A retailer stocking 30,000 items in its stores might offer 10 times as many items for sale online. More stock means larger footprints. Higher ceilings accommodate mezzanine levels, letting operators cram more shelves into a building.
Amazon recently bought more than 2 hectares of land in Sydney’s southwest, next to a warehouse it has a lease for. It paid $7 million for the land, according to News.com.au.
Earlier this year, Amazon secured its <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/73432-amazon-secures-first-aussie-distribution-centre" target="_blank">first distribution centre</a> in Melbourne's outer south eastern suburbs (picture above).
The online retail giant had earlier missed its widely anticipated launch on Black Friday.
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