Ahuri

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There are 50,000 households that face high housing cost burdens themselves, following the pandemic, who also own a private investment property.
There are 956,000 households living in housing affordability Stress (HAS) in Australia, according to a new AHURI report that looked into the impact of COVID-19, with Commonwealth rent assistance (CRA) reducing the number to 758,000.
The situation of the 50,000 was "cause for concern given that private renters have been disproportionately affected by the downturn," the report noted after modelling from the University of Adelaide and Curtin University.
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There is considerable potential for highly leveraged households owning an investment property, who are spending a higher proportion of their incomes on their own housing costs, to run into trouble meeting those costs and/or the servicing of their investment loan commitments, it noted.
"We estimate that there are around 37,500 mortgage home owners living in HAS who also own an investment property, and approximately 12,000 private renters in a similar position."
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It is estimated that the overall number of households living with HAS would have risen to 1,336,000 (from the 758,000 baseline) without the JobKeeper and JobSeeker interventions.
<div>The study found that the number of households living in a precarious situation is very high, and will likely remain high even after a partial recovery in 2021 and the withdrawal of much of the Australian Government’s income support measures.</div>
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<div>Without an extension of the JobKeeper income support measures beyond March 2021, the number of households living in HAS is likely to increase significantly, the AHURI report concluded.</div>
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<div>Households living with HAS and owning an investment property themselves are predicted to more than double.</div>
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<div>The report noted JobKeeper and JobSeeker interventions reduced the incidence of housing a fordability stress by a considerable amount: 861,000 households compared to 1.34 million without the intervention.</div>
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<div>"As JobKeeper moves through its later phases, the predicted number of households in HAS is expected to gradually rise by a further 124,000; 73 per cent of these households are private renters."</div>
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50,000 investors in mortgage stress put their tenants in precarious position 

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Having the best and most up-to-date research findings delivered by AHURI’s eight leading university research partners will enhance decision making that effects many of the most vulnerable Australians, as well as supporting the economic recovery from the crisis, according to Adrian Harrington, Chair of AHURI. 
The research, which will be fast tracked to deliver findings in the second half of 2020 examines topics across the housing continuum including: 
After the pandemic, can building homes rebuild Australia? 
By freezing the economy and social interactions, Australia has shown great success in reducing the spread of the virus, however it has come at a huge cost to employment.
The housing industry has been widely promoted as an ideal mechanism for delivering economic stimulus, but how should does it actually have the capacity to deliver economic stimulus in periods of economic crisis and what forms should such response take? 
Renting in the time of COVID-19: understanding the impacts.
The economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic has placed many in the rental market at risk; they face uncertainty, tenure insecurity and financial hardship.
Guided by the needs of policy, this project rapidly generates a nationwide dataset and essential reporting on the impact of COVID-19 on tenants. 
Housing affordability stress during COVID-19
This examines the impacts of COVID-19 on housing affordability stress (i.e. paying more than 30 per cent of income for housing) for home buyers and tenants across different housing types and household configurations. 
Other projects will consider pathways to regional recovery, understanding the impacts of policy responses to the pandemic, impacts on landlords as well as tenants, and impacts on those in marginal housing settings. 
"This is the first time that AHURI has funded rapid research projects on this scale and reflects the urgent need for quality research to support urban and housing policy innovation given the significant impact that COVID-19 is having on Australia's urban environments and housing markets," said Mr Harrington. 
"The Agenda was launched in collaboration with AHURI’s partner universities." 
"We’re very proud at how quickly our research teams came together to develop these projects’, says Dr Michael Fotheringham, Executive Director of AHURI. 
"Having the best and most up-to-date research findings will enable governments at all levels to develop policies that support Australians during and beyond the pandemic, and help deliver safe, secure and affordable housing for all."
The eight rapid-response projects will be published by AHURI in the second half of 2020.
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Eight COVID-19 research projects to inform housing policy response: AHURI

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Older Australians desperately want to avoid the private rental market with 80% instead pursuing hopes of suitable ownership options, according to recent research.
But the housing supply is not meeting the needs of older Australians, the report from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) found. 
Older NSW home owners aspire to remain in home ownership, preferring to live in three-bedroom separate dwellings in Sydney's middle to outer suburbs. 
There is a smaller preference to reside in small regional towns or large regional cities.
Those aged 75 and over were more likely to have a preference for the inner suburbs.
Few aspired to live in the CBD. And only 2% wanted a one bedroom apartment.
While the number of bedrooms, building quality and dwelling type are important, safety and security and having somewhere that feels like home are more critical for older Australians.
The number of older Australians increased by almost three million between 2006 and 2016, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates the number of older Australians will more than double from 5.8 million in 2012 to 14.1 million in 2062.
The survey results from AHURI follows recent accompanying research that shows mortgage debt obligations for older Australians is a growing concern, rising from $27,000 in the 1980s to $186,000 more recently.
Since 2006, the proportion of outright owners has fallen in the 55–64 year group, with falls still significant, but less dramatic, among those aged 65 or over.
Around 35% of 55–64-year-olds have a mortgage compared to 8% of those over 75.
Policy innovation is severely lacking in delivering the housing and housing assistance required to meet the aspirations of later-life Australians, AHURI has concluded.
"Current patterns of housing supply are not meeting the diverse needs of older Australians with too many apartments and large separate dwellings and not enough mid- sized product," the Older Australians and the housing aspirations gap report, lead by James Rowley, noted.
The Australian Housing Aspirations survey collected responses from 2400 responses from older Australians.
The report urges the better matching of new housing supply to aspirations to meet the demand for two and three-bedroom houses (including attached) located in high level amenity locations.
Social connections within the community, walkability, quality public transport, access to services and amenities and proximity to family and friends are important.
While large back gardens are less important to older Australians, some outdoor space was considered important.
"Dwellings need to be designed with older Australians in mind, which includes being easily adaptable when required," the report said. 
"Strategic planning needs to deliver outcomes that reflect the demand for smaller houses within established suburbs and move away from a mind-set that apartments are the only solution to delivering smaller dwellings.
"Regional locations also need a greater diversity of dwelling product.
"Small regional towns were a popular aspiration of older Australians, but there needs to be a range of products available in these locations to meet demand."
The report also noted delivering low cost, low deposit ownership products, through shared ownership or through a land rent type scheme, could deliver the safety, security and control characteristics of home ownership sought by older Australians.
Any Federal Government initiatives that seek to reduce financial penalty via taxation in later years to enable housing transitions, are generally supported by the research.
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Older Australians overwhelmingly prefer home ownership to renting

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While early adulthood is traditionally seen as the period when young adults begin to live independently, new AHURI research reveals that many young Australians are putting their longer term housing aspirations on hold to meet other life goals such as completing education or gaining secure employment.
In 2015-16, only 17% of young adults aged 18-24 years lived independently, with most (66%) still living with their parents.
Furthermore, around a third of Australians aged 25–34 either remained or moved back with parents or lived in shared housing.
The research, Young Australians and the housing aspirations gap, undertaken for AHURI by researchers from Swinburne University and Curtin University, examined the short and longer term housing aspirations and the housing aspirations gap (i.e. where current housing is not meeting people’s requirements) among ‘emerging adults’ (aged 18–24 years) and ‘early adults’ (aged 25– 34 years).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/emerging%20adults%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/emerging%20adults%201.jpg" alt="">
"As house prices and rents have risen ahead of incomes, it is taking longer for young adults to create their own independent and secure households, and for some it is not attainable in the foreseeable future," says the report’s lead author, Dr Sharon Parkinson of Swinburne University.
"This has led many to staying or returning to the family home, or taking up informal living arrangements such as living in group households."
The ideal of home ownership is not as persistent as for past generations, varying with age, education and quality of current living arrangement. 60% of Australians aged 18–24 years and 70% of those aged 25–34 years identified owning and living in their own home as their ideal tenure. This compares to 80% of older Australians.
For emerging adults (18-24 years) sharing a house with a group typically met their short-term (82%) but not longer-term (25%) aspirations. While living with parents mostly met short-term (76%) but not longer-term (30%) aspirations.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/emerging%20adults%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/emerging%20adults%202.jpg" alt="">
For early adults (25–34 years) the housing aspirations gap is greatest for individuals in the private rental sector. For interviewees renting privately, the requirement to move house was the one constant in their lives.
Short-term aspirations for this group were shaped around ‘horizontal’ moves or finding an arrangement slightly better than the previous move, but with no sense of moving upwards or being closer to achieving their longer term housing hopes.
Despite rising housing costs, most 18-24 year olds thought homeownership would be possible in the near future.
"We found that many emerging adults had a ‘blind optimism’ that they would be able to achieve their housing aspirations despite not actively planning for their housing future," says Dr Parkinson.
"Nearly a third of those we surveyed felt that they would be purchasing a home within the next five years with a further 36% believing they would buy in 5 to 10 years." 
By early adulthood there is a sharp divide in optimism influenced by education and income levels.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/emerging%20adults%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/emerging%20adults%203.jpg" alt="">
Nearly two-thirds (61%) with a tertiary education and a higher income believe they would buy a property within five years, compared to just over a third (36%) for those with an education to year 12 or below, and less than a quarter (23%) for those with an education to year 11 or below.
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<li>More young Australians are not only being priced out of home ownership, but independent rental housing too. Only 17% of Australians aged 18-24 lived independently in 2015-16, and most (66%) lived with parents. Meanwhile, around a third of Australians aged 25–34 remained or moved back with parents, or lived in shared housing.</li>
<li>The ideal of home ownership is not as persistent as for past generations, varying with age, education and quality of current living arrangement. 60% of Australians aged 18–24 years and 70% of those aged 25–34 years identified owning and living in their own home as their ideal tenure. This compares to 80% of older Australians.</li>
<li>Despite house prices and rents rising ahead of incomes, 18–24 year olds held a ‘blind optimism’ for home ownership. 32% felt that purchasing a dwelling would be attainable within the next five years; and 36% considered it attainable in 5–10 years. This optimism decreases by early adulthood (25–34 years), influenced by education and income levels.</li>
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The report <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/318" target="_blank">can be downloaded</a> from the AHURI website.
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Young Australians want a home to call their own, but work and study come first

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Between 1987 and 2015, the average real mortgage debt among older Australians (aged 55+ years) blew out by 600 per cent, according to new AHURI research.
Debt rose on average from $27,000 to over $185,000 in 2015, while their average mortgage debt to income ratios tripled from 71 to 211 per cent over the same period.
The research, <a href="http://icm-tracking.meltwater.com/link.php?DynEngagement=true&amp;H=5eXH0qSKdBRphS6WO4YlQwwSTi8wtQOqejFjZKiddbCzZ5Bbl4XDYQCWwbAwBqZ18LgCZBIb7Ta2Ris72KQtLUjhTZ0hAoyRqWksKLvDgQGF%2FheDfJf5RQl5rEECNjoziHOV36ncRpk%3D&amp;G=0&amp;R=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ahuri.edu.au%2Fresearch%2Ffinal-reports%2F319&amp;I=20190826210314.00000732f17f%40mail6-43-usnbn1&amp;X=MHwxMDQ2NzU4OjVkNWNkN2UyNjJkNTM3OTAwYzljNTU2ZDs%3D&amp;S=R75KvJmZUsaCszbwp8Ep3zYi24dIZMln-LMCKx88_CQ" target="_blank" data-auth="NotApplicable">Mortgage stress and precarious home ownership: implications for older Australians,</a> was undertaken for AHURI by researchers from Curtin University and RMIT University.
It investigates the growing numbers of older Australians who are carrying high levels of mortgage debt into retirement, and considers the significant consequences for their wellbeing and for the retirement incomes system.
"Our research finds that back in 1987 only 14 per cent of older Australian home owners were still paying off the mortgage on their home; that share doubled to 28 per cent in 2015’, says the report’s lead author, Professor Rachel ViforJ of Curtin University. "We’re also seeing these older Australians’ mortgage debt burden increase from 13 per cent of the value of the average home in the late 1980s to around 30 per cent in the late 1990’s when the property boom took off, and it has remained at that level ever since.
"Over that time period, average annual mortgage repayments have more than tripled from $5,000 to $17,000 in real terms." When older mortgagors experience difficulty in meeting mortgage payments, wellbeing declines and stress levels increase, according to the report.
Psychological surveys measuring mental health on a scale of 0 to 100 reveal that mortgage difficulties reduce mental health scores for older men by around 2 points and an even greater 3.7 points for older women.
Older female mortgagors’ mental health is more sensitive to personal circumstances than older male mortgagors.
Marital breakdown, ill health and poor labour market engagement all adversely affect older female mortgagors’ mental health scores more than men’s. "These mental health effects are comparable to those resulting from long-term health conditions," says Professor ViforJ.
"As growing numbers of older Australians carry mortgages into retirement the rising trend in mortgage indebtedness will have negative impacts on the wellbeing of an increasing percentage of the Australian population." High mortgage debts later in life also present significant challenges for housing assistance programs.
The combination of tenure change and demographic change is expected to increase the number of seniors aged 55 years and over eligible for Commonwealth Rent Assistance from 414,000 in 2016 to 664,000 in 2031, a 60 per cent increase.
As a consequence the real cost (at 2016) of CRA payments to the Federal budget is expected to soar from $972 million in 2016, to $1.55 billion in 2031.
The unmet demand for public housing from private renters aged 55+ years is also expected to climb from roughly 200,000 households in 2016, to 440,000 households in 2031, a 78 per cent increase. There are also challenges for Government retirement incomes policy.
The burden of indebtedness in later life is growing; longer working lives and the use of superannuation benefits to pay down mortgages are increasingly likely outcomes.
The full report can be <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/319%20" target="_blank">downloaded here</a>.
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Mortgage debt for older Australians soars 600 per cent and is impacting their mental health: AHURI

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A ‘get tough’ approach to crime and anti-social behavior is leading to considerable impact on families relying on social housing, a new report says.
The Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) report found that women affected by domestic violence are generally strongly supported by social housing landlords.
However, this commitment may falter during a social housing tenancy.
The <a href="http://icm-tracking.meltwater.com/link.php?DynEngagement=true&amp;H=I%2BqMhXDuIS2RujNbavWSOKShOr7Ezi73JeGvxlkJ09Qb0kDpZZQFeCTzmgUtUg1%2BzQeAWO80e2F3J%2F4q2HWFLF4FXbnSC1lXyjLygVwAtvkM0e27vOJOWpKowpV1KI6EYUpJH4RSSjI%3D&amp;G=0&amp;R=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ahuri.edu.au%2Fresearch%2Ffinal-reports%2F314&amp;I=20190612200354.000004df3d18%40mail6-46-ussnn1&amp;X=MHwxMDQ2NzU4OjVkMDA1MmIyYjA1ZjM5NTQ1MjYyMTNiYTs%3D&amp;S=WZsJZYyE7ljme70grOAcnPQELSIwGmgRHugo_o9zLag" target="_blank">Social housing legal responses to crime and anti-social behaviour: impacts on vulnerable families </a>report was conducted by researchers from UNSW Sydney and University of Tasmania.
It looked at social housing tenancies law, policies and 95 cases of eviction proceedings in five jurisdictions— New South Wales, Tasmania, Victoria, Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
It also analyzed national policy principles relating to four groups of vulnerable people: women affected by domestic violence; children; Indigenous families; and people who problematically use alcohol and other drugs.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/13/social%20housing.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/13/social%20housing.jpg" alt="">
“Tenancy obligations and extended liability impose hard expectations that women will control the misconduct of male partners and children,” said lead researcher Dr Chris Martin from UNSW Sydney.
“In tenancy legal proceedings violence against women becomes framed as a ‘nuisance’ and some women are evicted because of violence against them.
“The cases involving drug offences in particular show a punitive approach, with very minor offences, or offences involving visitors or family members often resulting in termination proceedings.
“In some cases, tenants are evicted even though the criminal justice system outcome is to allow rehabilitation at home.”
The report suggested several policy changes that could be made to help social landlords, including:
<ul>
<li>reviewing the gender impacts of social housing policies and practice and sponsoring the cultivation of respectful relationships</li>
<li>adopting ‘the best interests of the child’ as the paramount factor in decisions about termination affecting children</li>
<li>establishing specific Indigenous housing organisations, officers and advocates</li>
<li>adopting harm minimisation as the guiding principle for responses to alcohol and other drug use, including where there is criminal offending.</li>
</ul>
“Responding to anti-social behaviour and misconduct in social housing is plainly a very challenging area of practice,” said Dr Martin.
“Many of the cases we reviewed involved highly conflictual, destructive and distressing behaviour.
“It appears that in most cases a single substantial contact between the social housing landlord and the tenant was sufficient to address any problems.
“However, where problematic behaviour continues, the usual course of escalating threats to the tenancy and pushing the tenant to ‘engage’ with the landlord and support services does not work for many.
“In those cases, people who are vulnerable may be evicted from their social housing, often into homelessness.
“We need to bring support out of the shadow of termination.”
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Social housing terminations are hurting vulnerable families: AHURI

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) report on affordable housing policies should support incentive approaches but must not increase apartment costs.
The AHURI report by a number of Australian academics is a useful exploration of trends and policies across the world but the Sydney market is different.
Many countries use taxation deductions and other incentives to achieve a supply of affordable homes.
Even the South Australian system referred to in the report is different to anything proposed in Sydney as it defines 15% of homes for sale at a reduced price.
This is much more feasible than giving 15% of all your homes to the local council.
Houses and apartments in Sydney are amongst the most expensive in the world when related to household income.
Much of this high price is driven by restrictions on zoning new land for residential homes according to the Reserve Bank report on ‘the Effect of Zoning on Housing Prices’.
The zoning effect increased Sydney per house price by a whopping $489,000 and in Melbourne by $324,000.
On top of all this there is a range of levies and taxes added to the cost of a dwelling by the NSW Government and the local council.
To add even more cost to new dwellings as proposed by AHURI will only drive overall housing costs upwards.
The AHURI preferred approach is to have inclusionary zoning only applied to apartments yet apartments have already become the affordable way to live for many Sydney households.
The average apartment in Sydney is around 40% cheaper than the average house so this dwelling type has become the affordable way to live for many households.
AHURI however proposes an inclusionary zoning system that can only lead to forcing apartment costs up.
We should be getting other building types like detached houses, commercial and retail developments to contribute to affordable housing rather than add an extra cost to the most affordable dwellings in the city.
The Urban Taskforce has developed an approach to providing up to 40,000 affordable homes across Sydney over a ten year period.
We propose using the Affordable Rental Housing SEPP that gives an uplift in floor space if 20% of the apartments are affordable rentals for 10 years.
The incentive needs to also be 20% and this will encourage most developers to provide a percentage of apartments that are lower in rent than the market.
Stronger leadership by government on affordable housing policies is needed in NSW.
Currently the Department of Planning and Environment controls some policies, the Greater Sydney Commission proposes targets only on uplift and if feasible yet many councils are pushing for inclusionary zoning percentages that would make new housing projects unviable.
The Urban Taskforce is keen to work with all agencies to get a Sydney approach to housing affordability that is sustainable in the long term.
CHRIS JOHNSON is the Urban Taskforce CEO.
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AHURI’s affordable housing proposals will only push unit prices up: Chris Johnson

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The most recent ABS Survey of Income and Housing 2013–14 reveals that households buying their first home are older than they were over a decade ago, according to AHURI's recent brief.
In 2000–01 over 60 percent of first home buyers were aged between 25 and 34 years old, by 2013–14 that had dropped, with just under half (49.6 percent) of first home buyers being between 25 and 34 years old.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-21%20at%204.57.38%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-21%20at%204.57.38%20pm.jpg" alt="">
This indicates that households are delaying buying a home, which in turn could mean they are still paying off their home when they reach retirement age.
Indeed, as other ABS Housing Occupancy and Costs data shows, the proportion of households aged 65 and over still paying off their mortgage has more than doubled, having risen from 3.6 per cent of all households aged 65 and over in 2000–01 to 8.2 per cent in 2013–14.
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