Unit Values

This time has come for apartments to reign over houses.

It feels like for the last decade, houses have been the ones growing exponentially (that&#39;s because they have) - while apartments, while still seeing solid growth, have been playing second fiddle.

The latest data however out of property data house CoreLogic shows apartment values rose faster than houses in more than half of a pool of suburbs across the country in the past three months, as stretched affordability and lower borrowing capacity forced buyers to opt for high-density homes.

Rising rents are also expected to lure more investors to the unit market and help fuel further price gains this year.

Of the 899 suburbs analysed, units outperformed houses across 489 markets in the last three months.

Compared to a 12 month analysis, only 180 of the same 899 suburbs saw apartments outperform houses.&nbsp;

&quot;This suggests it is a more recent phenomenon where unit values would out-perform houses,&quot; CoreLogic advised.

&quot;It is also in line with the nature of downturns historically, where houses tend to have more volatility, and deeper declines than what we may see in the unit segment.&quot;

Across the capital cities, growth rates have generally been stronger in unit markets further from the CBD.

Sydney&#39;s Newtown was one of 20 Greater Sydney suburbs which saw the unit market outstrip houses. Among others were Darlinghurst, Darlington and Zetland near the CBD, and Caringbah South and Woolooware in the Sutherland Shire area.

In Woolooware, unit values&nbsp;are two and a half times cheaper than houses. Units rose&nbsp;4.9 per cent over the last three months to a median $1.036 million, while the 2.5 per cent house price declines took the median house price to $2.7&nbsp;million.

Sydney-wide, the median house price is now 70 per cent more expensive than units.&nbsp;

Melbourne&#39;s Kensington saw the biggest difference in the house and unit market, with units rising 7.2 per cent and houses remaining flat.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=28968 project_image_fid=195528]

Port Melbourne and Balaclava also saw big swings in favour of the unit market.

Melbourne&#39;s&nbsp;houses are 59 per cent more expensive than units -&nbsp;a drop from 61 per cent earlier this year, while the ACT showed a slight drop with&nbsp;house prices 73 per cent higher compared to units -&nbsp;down one per cent from last year.&nbsp;

Looking ahead, the increased overseas migration, and the relative affordability of units compared to houses, as well as the recent upswing in new investor financing seen in February and March, will likely help insulate the apartment sector.

<h2>The biggest differences in Sydney markets</h2>

<h2><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/syd.png"><img alt="" height="614" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/syd.png" width="1558" /></a></h2>

<h2>The biggest differences in Melbourne&nbsp;markets</h2>

<a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2022-05-25_at_11.10.17_am.png"><img alt="" height="616" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2022-05-25_at_11.10.17_am.png" width="1556" /></a>

<h2>The biggest differences in Brisbane markets</h2>

<h2><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2022-05-25_at_11.12.36_am.png"><img alt="" height="616" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2022-05-25_at_11.12.36_am.png" width="1556" /></a></h2>

&nbsp;

Of the 899 suburbs analysed, units outperformed houses across 489 markets in the last three months

Joel Robinson

The suburbs where apartments are outperforming houses

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GUEST OBSERVER
Residex has issued its latest non-revised growth in median values chart.
These figures suggest the Australian house market grew 1.63 percent in the September quarter.
Growth was driven almost entirely by a strong surge of 1.63 percent in the month of September, off the back of a slight decline in August. Annual performance of Australian houses was 3.31 percent, as opposed to 7.2 percent in the previous year.
Similarly, the median non-revised unit value across Australia experienced 1.27 percent growth in the September quarter, with 1.17 percent growth in the month of September alone.
Unit values across Australia increased 3.96 percent.
Table 1: September 2016 Median Value Index
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%208.57.50%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%208.57.50%20AM.png" alt="">
 
Source: Residex
While the monthly figures are relatively volatile, annual growth shows a more distinct trend. Graph 1 plots historical annual growth rates for the median Australian house and unit values.
Graph 1: Residex Non-Revised Median Values – Historical Growth of Australian Houses and Units
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%208.59.01%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%208.59.01%20AM.png" alt="">
Source: Residex
Graph 1 suggests that the aggregated housing market peaked in 2014, though it has since had a very slow decline relative to past growth cycles. Growth in dwelling markets is likely to have been sustained by the four cash rate cuts that have taken place since the peak of the most recent cycle.
Country NSW houses had the highest value growth in the year to September at 7.41% in capital gains. This figure was down on the previous year’s growth of 9.94%, suggesting that regional NSW is now following the downswing in the Sydney market.
Spillover into the regional NSW market was expected as those who were priced out of Sydney during the recent housing boom (in which the median Sydney dwelling grew 33% between 2013 and 2016) sought more affordable properties in which to live or invest.
Regional areas of NSW also currently provide higher rental yields for investors. Residex median rent estimates remained virtually unchanged in Australian houses and units. The strongest surge in rents was in ACT units and Hobart and Tasmanian houses, while resource market rents continued to decline. The overall subdued growth in rents is likely due to an increase in investor activity, which has potentially increased the stock of rental properties.
Graph 2 displays the annual change in dollar values of rents for the past 10 years, alongside ABS dollar values of loans taken out by investors at each month. From 2013, the uptick in investor lending seemed to have a more dramatic impact on units. The second surge from late 2015 is also likely to dampen rent growth in units.
Graph 2: Annual Change in Residex Median Rent vs ABS Dollar Value of Investor Loans
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%209.00.06%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%209.00.06%20AM.png" alt="">
Source: Residex
Given that most Australian markets follow the Sydney growth cycle at a lag, it is tempting to aggregate our markets and say that Australia as a whole is well into the downswing phase of the growth cycle, and some moderate adjustments may be expected over the course of 2017.
However, Australia’s smaller, resource based markets were thrown into a correction following resource price shocks. They cannot be amassed with the rest of Australia’s housing market movements, and it is increasingly difficult to place them in traditional economic cycles.
The energy commodity price index surmises dramatic movements in what makes up approximately 30% of Australian exports: a 70% decline between June 2014 and January 2016, followed by a 41% recovery between the beginning of 2016 and September.
Graph 3 plots the monthly commodity price index changes against monthly trend capital growth in Perth and Darwin non-revised median values. The commodity price index seems to have a lead lag effect on growth, particularly in Darwin where the dwelling market is small, reducing the severity of declines.
Graph 3: Commodity Price Index versus Monthly Trend Growth in Perth and Darwin
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%209.01.09%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%209.01.09%20AM.png" alt="">
 
Source: Residex
Unfortunately, these commodity price increases are not representative of a cyclical recovery in resources, but was more likely the result of severe weather conditions in China which temporarily limited the supply of coal and steel, structural limits to coal supply in Australia, and OPEC negotiations which saw a spike in the price of oil. While this may temporarily restore confidence in resource dwelling markets, Perth and Darwin are still in a correction period.
With 1.3 percent inflation at the September quarter up slightly from the 1% in the previous quarter, the RBA may have room to leave rates on hold. A steady cash rate in the current climate is likely to see a steady fall in growth rates across Australian dwelling markets, with small, niche markets such as Hobart offering promising fundamentals for nearer term growth.
Eliza Owen is the market analyst for Onthehouse.com.au. She can be contacted <a href="https://www.onthehouse.com.au/" target="_blank">here.</a>
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