trends

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Real estate agent John McGrath has says not to panic if you bought at peak times in Sydney and Melbourne last year.
"It won't take long for Sydney and Melbourne to rebound," McGrath said in his latest Switzer column, adding the worst was already over.
McGrath said if you bought at the peaks of the market, around mid-year 2017 for Sydney and late 2017 for Melbourne, not to despair.
"If you’re in this boat, I understand your disappointment in terms of timing but please don’t despair," McGrath said, suggesting no one can pick the top, even himself, the 35 year real estate veteran.
"Unfortunately, in boom markets, there will always be people who happen to exchange at the peak but try to remember you are one of many – thousands of people did the same thing.
"What’s important now is for you not to panic and to look at the situation objectively," McGrath advised.
He said it won't take long for Sydney and Melbourne to rebound.
"These are two major international cities with many unique factors keeping property prices strong," McGrath suggested, saying you shouldn't feel too compelled to get out.
"You just have to be patient while the magic of capital growth takes effect." 
He said you should stop worrying if you're an owner-occupier.
"You have a new home to enjoy for as long as you can afford your payments in what continues to be a low interest rate environment.
"If the capital value of your home has come back a bit, it doesn’t matter because you’re going to be there long term and prices will eventually rise again." 
He noted that if you're an investor and have bought for different reasons, you've got to hang in there, suggesting that all that has changed is the amount of time your asset needs to bear fruit.
"We’re in the winter period now but the sun will come out again.
"Whether you invest in shares, managed funds, property or any other asset class, there are always going to be highs and lows.
"Smart investors ride out the lows," McGrath said.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Bought at the top? It won't take long for Sydney and Melbourne to rebound: John McGrath

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I am fast coming to the conclusion that despite having a total value of $5.02 trillion, real estate in Australia is one of the least understood industries.
During the global financial crisis (GFC) where property prices dropped on average by approximately 30% despite some market choruses calling for 50% plus price corrections. When we had clear evidence that the markets had bottomed we were then accused of falsely talking the markets up even though there was anecdotal evidence that this was in fact the case. So based on these observations with the markets now buoyant we constantly hear of the markets now being over – inflated and on the precipice of an almighty implosion.
To balance the argument I would make a few insider observations:
<ul>
<li>Historically real estate markets have always been valued from the top end down, so when the GFC arrived this actually skewed the valuation process as the top end markets experienced the greatest valuation decreases. The demise of the merchant bankers and their annual bonuses further stymied price growth as this once dominant market aggressor dissipated at a rate never seen before.</li>
<li>Post GFC we saw the markets bounce back from the bottom – end as against the previous top – end in the shape of investors. The Bureau of Statistics housing finance figures for December show investors now account for 39.8% of the value of home loans issued in December. That is the highest proportion of loans going to investors since October 2003, during the height of Australia’s largest recent housing boom.</li>
<li>What we are clearly seeing here is investors moving funds from the stock market back into bricks and mortar given the added attraction of negative gearing and self-managed superannuation funds is far too alluring to pass-up. Hedge funds and stock market manipulations have played a major role in this investor decision.</li>
<li>
Australia does not have, yet urgently needs, a housing strategy that would enable local, state and federal governments to work together on this blueprint over pork-barreling strategies every time an election comes around. Infrastructure Australia should be handed this responsibility especially in light of <a href="/expert-insights/buying/29622-significant-dwelling-supply-problems-across-country-udia-report" target="_blank" title="significant dwelling supply problems across country: UDIA report." style="line-height: 1.3em;">significant dwelling supply problems across country.</a>
</li>
<li>
MP Kelly O’Dwyer is heading up the inquiry into Australia’s foreign investment policy in the context of residential real estate. Ms O’Dwyer wrote a vague insight the Australian Financial Review this week – <a href="https://www.afr.com/p/opinion/foreigners_and_real_estate_XzWUwJcAuIKXv0TRV7QdUP" target="_blank" title="Foreigners and real estate" style="line-height: 1.3em;">Foreigners and real estate</a> - where the focus is clearly on Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) data – which is about as useful as an ashtray on a motor bike. Real estate agents (the ones actually at the coal face) keep discussing the unprecedented explosion of online inquiries by Asian families from within Australia, I might add. So what percentage of acquisitions by overseas purchasers do not get processed, when they should, by the FIRB?
</li>
</ul>
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/03/13-03-2014-12-00-27-PM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8482" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/03/13-03-2014-12-00-27-PM.jpg" alt="13-03-2014 12-00-27 PM" width="682" height="369"></a>
Source: Digital Finance Analytics
<ul>
<li>Temporary residents in Australia are permitted to purchase an established dwelling although they are legally required to sell this property when they depart Australia. As if they are going to sell – it is much easier to simply transfer the name on the deed into another name so technically the property has been sold. What is the data from the relevant Stamp Duty offices on property transfers?</li>
<li>The latest figures from the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) reveal overseas buyers purchased a record 5,091 established homes worth $5.4 billion last financial year, compared with 647 properties to a value of $810 million in 2009-10. Next year’s figures will in all probability be much higher again as there is a clear movement of new residents to Australia because they want to get their fortunes out of China.</li>
<li>Another great Litmus test will be this week’s Mosman trophy listing with price expectations around $40 million plus which would smash the previous record set at $22.500 million by double – <a href="https://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/mosmans-top-price-to-shift-next-door-20140327-35jf5" target="_blank" title="Hopetoun Avenue">Hopetoun Avenue</a>.</li>
</ul>
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/03/13-03-2014-11-58-11-AM1.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8483" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/03/13-03-2014-11-58-11-AM1.jpg" alt="13-03-2014 11-58-11 AM" width="711" height="361"></a>
Source: Digital Finance Analytics
So I expect the Inquiry into Australia’s foreign investment policy which will not be released until later in 2014 to unveil nothing sinister simply because the terms of reference are not specifically examined to explore the current loopholes that can be easily manipulated without our federal government even knowing.
The state governments like it as they are receiving a double whammy in stamp duty, but I guess we are not supposed to be saying that as the evidence is inconclusive given there are no terms of reference to explore such ridiculous assertions.
Which brings me to where I started, why is Australian real estate one of the least understood industries despite having a conservative total value of $5.02 trillion? There are a lot of question that could be asked to better understand its make-up and composure; it's just that nobody in the government is really concerned about providing those answers at the moment.
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Australian real estate has plenty of questions with fewer answers

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Back in February 2012, I published a post on the subject “smaller apartments to be the norm, not the exception”. 
Now almost two and a half years later we are starting to see projects that were then on the drawing board either finished or mostly sold off the plan.
As was already apparent back in 2012, today the reality is that generally apartments have in fact gotten smaller. However, via skillful design and by responding to buyer feedback, smaller now also generally means better. While size is still important, it’s not the most important factor.
Over the same time frame Sydney has also retained it’s place (which depending upon your circumstances and point of view is either a good or bad thing) among the world’s most expensive cities to buy a home. In 2012 there was the certainty that new apartment designs were set to be smaller but also hopefully more efficient with changes being driven mainly by price ceiling constraints and lifestyle demands.
What we have seen over the intervening years has been a remarkable shift in design standards and buyers have also shown little or no resistance to smaller apartments. From a marketing perspective this shift has been driven by a number of factors, mainly quality, good planning and lifestyle shifts. But there has also been the expectation that smaller did not mean inferior.
Smaller Apartments, Big on Design
Apartment buyers are a pretty smart bunch, developers know this and as marketers we also respect how much more engaged buyers have become. When buyers approach off the plan projects they do so with confidence but that is also matched by a much more discriminating buyer.
There have been a number of key facts driving this trend. Higher prices are key; this applies to all buyers as investors are no less demanding of quality. There has also been greater competition for the best locations.
I get constant feedback that in a nut-shell goes like this: Buyers are looking for well-designed, carefully planned projects, that are well located, close to local shops (and that is within walking distance), with access to good public transport. Most buyers are willing to move down in apartment size, but they expect location and services to be top rate. They also have a clear checklist of what they expect internally.
I also think that this has a lot to do with market education that comes via reality TV. There are now so many home renovation shows and I think this has been a factor in educating buyers. They are more aware of good design.
Like the food revolution that has in part grown out of the saturation of cooking TV shows, I think the same can be linked to a cultural shift that has buyers thinking about the design and function of apartments. This also extends more than ever to the reputation of the developer and builder.
First Impressions
One of the most telling ways to judge how people are reacting to smaller and smarter projects is to see how they first respond, what questions are generally top of mind and what first impression is created at a sales and display centre.
They are very keen to see how the space is used; they look beyond the finishes to how the space will function and what the developer has done to make the space work.
I have also noticed buyers are keen to see how the project sits within the neighbourhood and what sort of brand message does the exterior design of the building broadcast. They are quick to spot gimmicks, but there is an appetite for themed buildings that reflect the local environment.
It’s fairly clear that a good project team has to work hard to get the mix just right, this is now essential as apartments are not seen as a stepping stone any more, they are home to more and more of us. Between 2009 and 2012 the supply of new apartments increased by 56% and over the same period the numbers of new detached dwellings fell by 13%.
Article continues on the next page. Please click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Some Trends
Looking at one of our most recent developments, Woolooware Bay, near Cronulla, in Sydney’s Sutherland Shire, there’s a variety of one, two and three bedroom apartments which range in size across an assortment of designs which include: (internal) 59 square metres for a one bed, 78 square metres for a two bed and 114 square metres for a three bed. These apartments being developed by Bluestone help highlight how good design is being delivered.
Some of the features include; a multi-purpose or shared zone, which might have been a media-nook or study, but has now evolved to a shared space for work, study or pleasure. Apartment kitchens have also evolved, perhaps more than any other area, kitchens are now almost a ‘piece of furniture’ with varied surfaces, textured finishes, display cupboards, recessed lighting, and so just having stainless steel appliances no longer makes the grade.
Other design features include the use of windows and balcony access to create good air circulation, and balconies even, when they are small, are now more private, attractive ‘rooms’. Most of the larger three bed apartments at Woolooware Bay provide balcony access from all main rooms and all bedrooms. The use of high-set windows and privacy screens are now more common features, and there’s a deliberate aim to create separation and privacy for bedrooms.
Another area of design, and this might well help make smaller apartments even more functional, is the use of technology to create ‘smart apartments’ where the push of a button might one day do much more than switch on the lights and TV.
We aren’t fully there yet, but at almost every consumer electronic show manufacturers now display even more smart-home devices. The spread of smart-phones and tablets could soon see apartments online and residents able to switch their lights on or off, tweak the air conditioning, order in dinner, and make sure those houseplants and pets are looked after.
Buyers are skeptical when it comes to ‘gimmicks’, but this does not mean that as apartments are smaller there is not a need for well-planned building facilities. Alongside better interior design these facilities have also evolved and in addition to lap pools and well-equipped BBQ areas. We now have contemplation gardens, wine cellars, common rooms, a library and indoor and outdoor cinemas. However, when these facilities are included, buyers are still keen to see strata levies at manageable levels alongside the focus on quality management.
The end result of all of these trends is the ready comprehension among developers and buyers that smaller apartments are workable and popular, but this needs to be balanced with really assiduous design, great quality and the continued quest for well thought-out locations and buildings with sought-after facilities.
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pchittenden-eLqUUC8TWW

When it comes to apartments, smaller really can be better

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The Westpac Consumer Risk Aversion Index results show a shift away from investing in real estate in favour of debt reduction and deposits.
Westpac’s first Red Book in 2017 found a shift back towards increased risk aversion late last year has carried into year end with an Index reading of 38 in December in line with September and compared to 19 a year ago.
Component-wise the main shift over the year has been away from ‘real estate’ (14% vs 23%) towards deposits (29% vs 26%) and ‘repay debt’ (21 percent vs 18 percent). There was a slight dip in the proportion favouring shares, from 10 percent to 9 percent. A relatively high 6 percent reported ‘don’t know’.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/03/wes-5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/03/wes-5.jpg" alt="">
The accounts showed the household savings ratio at 6.3 percent, down from 6.7 percent in Q2 and 7.2 percent a year ago. Technical changes to assumptions underlying depreciation estimates have resulted in a downward level shift in savings rate estimates over the last decade.
Both the composition of income and spending shifts and the state detail continue to point to budget constraints as the main driver of lower savings rather than an easing in risk aversion and ‘precautionary’ savings.
Declines have been led by mining states where income pressures are more of an issue with a partial offset coming from rising savings elsewhere.
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Consumers view real estate as a more risky investment: Westpac 

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<h1>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/teresa-somes-412706" target="_blank" style="font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;">Teresa Somes</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/macquarie-university-1174" target="_blank">Macquarie University</a>
</h1>
One of the most pressing challenges older Australians face is finding secure accommodation with suitable amenities. And as the numbers of older Australians grow, the pressure to provide housing that meets their needs is increasing. We may be facing a crisis of ageing homelessness in coming years.
A new <a href="https://www.missionaustralia.com.au/news-blog/news-media/mission-australia-report-shows-homelessness-is-a-growing-concern-for-older-australians" target="_blank">report</a> from Mission Australia has called on all levels of government to act immediately on the critical shortage of appropriate housing and support services for older Australians at risk of homelessness.
A look at the trajectory of Australia’s ageing population gives a clear sense of the urgency of this issue. Today, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7EAgeing%20Population%7E14" target="_blank">16% of our population</a> is over 65 years of age. By 2101, <a href="https://aifs.gov.au/facts-and-figures/ageing-australia" target="_blank">25% of Australians</a> are likely to be over 65. People over 55 already make up around 17% of the homeless population – and this figure is likely to grow.
Affordable housing and related aged care services are already in short supply. Evidence of this is the increasing numbers of older homeless people <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/homelessness-services/specialist-homelessness-services-2015-16/contents/client-groups-of-interest/older-clients" target="_blank">seeking help</a> from specialised homeless services.
<h2>Why are older people more at risk?</h2>
Older Australians face the same risks of falling into homelessness as everyone else. But they also face extra challenges related to ageing. These include physical and cognitive changes, reduced earning capacity and family changes, on top of the lack of suitable housing alternatives. All these factors can put older people at greater risk of becoming homeless.
Self-funded accommodation is simply not an option for many older Australians. Many depend on social security or social housing to cover accommodation and living expenses. <a href="https://www.humanservices.gov.au/individuals/enablers/payment-rates-age-pension" target="_blank">Age Pension payments are modest</a> – a maximum of A$407 per week for single people and A$613.60 for couples – which might be enough if people have adequate superannuation and own their home by the time they retire. Many do not.
The combination of low incomes and rising living costs is a significant factor in older people’s homelessness. The supply of private rental housing or social housing for people on very low incomes is limited.
Even if social housing is available, many of the complexes are poorly maintained or have mixed tenancy. This can cause older people to feel intimidated and isolated.
As rents continue to <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-01/sydney-rental-prices-climb-as-more-new-units-are-built/8228872" target="_blank">climb</a>, private renting is beyond the means of many older people. Age discrimination further narrows the restricted market of affordable housing. Landlords may prefer tenants who are receiving a regular income from employment.
People with health problems, including mobility and cognitive impairment, and who require greater support may become unable to maintain their present living arrangements. However, they may also be unable to find or afford accommodation that caters for their needs.
Older people who have suffered elder abuse, in particular financial abuse or failed family accommodation arrangements, are especially vulnerable. <a href="https://theconversation.com/global/topics/elder-abuse-5798" target="_blank">Elder abuse</a> is commonly inflicted by close family members. This can both impoverish an individual and isolate them from family support networks.
<h2>Which groups are most vulnerable?</h2>
<a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/ageing-women-in-financial-strife-the-new-face-of-australian-homelessness/news-story/22d4462e281e2d3b4f6b43b243d85406" target="_blank">Older women</a> are especially at risk. Many women who have raised children and not been in secure paid employment have little or no superannuation in later years. This leaves them with reduced capacity to support themselves, particularly if they have fled family violence.
Traditionally, support services are aimed at younger women with children. Mission Australia has called for investment in housing tailored to the needs of older women experiencing <a href="http://www.ownnsw.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/ItCouldBeYou.pdf" target="_blank">family violence</a>.
Mission Australia has also identified disproportionate numbers of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders among the homeless population. Overcrowded housing is a key factor here. In 2011, <a href="http://apo.org.au/system/files/40448/apo-nid40448-20316.pdf" target="_blank">74% of Indigenous people</a> were living in severely overcrowded dwellings.
<h2>What needs to be done to reduce homeless?</h2>
Significant funding is certainly needed to overcome the ever-growing problem of homelessness in our ageing population. Older Australians are not a homogeneous group. Housing options need to be provided that meet the needs of people with different financial, social, physical and cognitive capabilities.
Funding is also need to put support in place not only to allow people to move from homelessness to permanent accommodation, but also to counter the factors that lead to homelessness. These include the shortage of affordable rental accommodation, lack of accessible support networks, and financial insecurity for older people on low incomes.
Alternative housing options could include <a href="http://www.seniorresource.com/hcf.htm" target="_blank">congregate housing</a>. In this model, tenants live in units but support staff are on site. Another possible model is <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://academic.oup.com/gerontologist/article/51/3/406/560563" target="_blank">campus housing</a> where villages contain housing with different levels of care. If tenants’ level of care changes, they can move to other housing in the village.
Alternative housing for those who are more independent include <a href="http://www.homelessnessnsw.org.au/news/older-womens-studio-development-project" target="_blank">share housing models</a>, which aim to provide low-cost accommodation to homeless women. Government financial incentives for <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-can-we-best-design-housing-for-australias-ageing-population-50304" target="_blank">alternative housing</a> such as granny flats and co-ownership would also <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/20/housing-affordability-is-not-just-about-youth-15000-seniors-are-living-on-the-streets" target="_blank">help ease the demand</a> on government-run housing facilities.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87685/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">The need for appropriate housing for our ageing population is urgent. The rise in homelessness among older people is sad but clear. Governments must prioritise research and implementation of a range of accommodation options to better prepare Australians for the challenges of finding suitable housing as they get older.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/teresa-somes-412706" target="_blank">Teresa Somes</a>, Associate Lecturer, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/macquarie-university-1174" target="_blank">Macquarie University</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-and-more-older-australians-will-be-homeless-unless-we-act-now-87685" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

More and more older Australians will be homeless unless we act now

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GUEST OBSERVATION
More people are becoming heavily indebted by buying rental properties and shared accommodation is flourishing, as third party tech platforms help people find a place without a real estate agent.
A new report from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute explains how the private rental market is changing over time for both landlords and tenants.
Over the 10 years to 2016, the number of renters grew 38% - twice the rate of household growth. More renters now are couples, or couples with children, so it seems the sector is shaking its image of unstable housing or perhaps these people are left with few other options.
Households by type, 2006 and 2016
The report analyses data from the 2016 Census, the 2013-14 Survey of Income and Housing and the 2014 Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey. It also draws on interviews conducted with 42 people involved in all aspects of the private rental sector: financing, provision, access and management.
Rental property ownership also grew. We found the number of households with an interest in a rental property grew and the number that own multiple properties grew slightly as well.
But the typical landlord is still the conventional “mum and dad” investor. Two-thirds of rental investor households have two incomes, and 39% have children.
However they are also mostly high-income and high-wealth households: 60% are in both the highest income and highest wealth bracket. Interestingly, about one in eight landlords is themselves a private renter.
Housing finance ($A), 2000 - 2016
The biggest change in ownership is in finances: owners of rental properties are relying more heavily on debt.
Financing rental properties
The people we interviewed highlighted the Australian Prudential Regulation Authorities’ (APRA) guidance to lenders on loan serviceability calculations as having the greatest impact on overall investment levels and investor decisions.
Adding to the complexity is the proliferation of intermediaries, such as mortgage brokers and wealth advisers. These advisers are telling borrowers what lenders and loan products to use to maximise their borrowing power and negotiate lender and regulator requirements.
Houses are the most commonly rented in Australia, but everywhere rental markets are moving away from this and towards dwellings like apartments.
There’s now more diversity in rental properties too. For example the building of high-rise student accommodation, “new generation boarding houses” and granny flats.
These allow landlords to house more people in the one building, increasing revenue and making management more efficient.
The informal sector of shared accommodation appears to be flourishing, like improvising shared rooms and lodging-style accommodation in apartments and houses.
Finding a rental
People have moved from finding rentals in real estate agents’ high street offices and onto online platforms. New third-parties like apps and other digital platforms offer non-cash alternative bond products, schedule property inspections, collect rents, and organise repairs.
Even though these technological innovations avoid agents, they have in fact increased their share of private rental sector management. Agents themselves are use these platforms to change their businesses, and the structure of their industry.
Our research found that revenue from an agency’s property management business (its “rent roll”) has become increasingly important. Some players in the industry are consolidating their businesses around it, to make higher profits from tech-enabled efficiencies.
However, the real estate business still depends on building personal relationships, particularly in high-end markets.
The new tech platforms of the private rental sector raise issues for tenants too, particularly in terms of the personal information they collect. For example, one of the online platform operators told us they looked forward to using applicants’ information to score or rank applicants. Another one of the new alternative bond providers uses automatic “trust scoring” of personal information to price its product.
These innovations may be convenient to use, and may give some tenants an advantage in accessing housing - but at the expense of others who are already disadvantaged.
Rental properties meeting demand?
If the private rental sector is going to meet the demand for settled housing, governments will have to intervene. This can’t be left to technological innovation, or higher income renters exercising their consumer power.
Federal or state governments could create public registers of landlords, or licensing requirements, to police landlords who are not “fit and proper” and exclude them from the sector.
There could also be stronger laws around tenancy conditions and protections for tenants against retaliatory action. The Poverty Inquiry in the 1970s set the basic model of our present laws and they haven’t changed much.
Tenants’ personal information also needs to be protected, to properly take account of the rise of the online application platforms; another is the informal sector, which is currently in a regulatory blindspot.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94394/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">The popular emphasis on “mum and dad” investors diminishes expectations of landlords. Rental property investment should be regarded as a business that requires skill and effort. As for-profit providers of housing services, landlords should be held to standards that ensure the right to a dignified home life.
Chris Martin, Research Fellow, City Housing, UNSW
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/wealthy-landlords-and-more-sharehousing-how-the-rental-sector-is-changing-94394" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Wealthy landlords and more sharehousing - how the rental sector is changing: Chris Martin

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The inner-city apartment property crunch is now starting to really bite, according to Robert Gottliebsen, The Australian columnist.
The Sydney developer, Harry Triguboff’s Meriton, has stopped buying Sydney land which was "sending land values into freefall" as bankers prepare for losses.
Gottliebsen did not cite any examples.
Meriton was also curtailing its building activity, he added.
The columnist suggests the Melbourne crunch is being delayed as developers are proceeding with construction because they have old permits that allow greater density than the new rules.
"If they don’t proceed the opportunity will be lost," he said of the city where the building supply industry was booming because the state is undertaking unprecedented infrastructure investment.
The bank credit squeeze has caused small apartment first home buyers and investors to slash their purchases, but there is still some Chinese buying.
Affluent baby boomers are still shifting from their large family homes to apartments, usually closer to the city.
They don’t want the small apartments that are being built by most developers, often with the encouragement of rate-hungry councils, the veteran columnist advised.
"Most long-established developers did not pick this switch in the market and the long delays in gaining permission to build locked them in to providing small apartments for students, tourists, and young executives."
"There are a lot of frustrated developers and frightened bankers out there," he concluded
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Harry Triguboff stops purchasing sending land prices into freefall: Robert Gottliebsen 

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Don Stammer has suggested after the recent surge in house prices over recent years there has been "a reasonably orderly retreat".
However he noted a "deep gloom" has descended on the housing outlook.
"One interesting thing about being an Australian is we each are surrounded by 25 million housing experts," the adviser to Altius Asset Management and Stanford Brown Financial Advisers said.
"Google the phrase 'Australian house prices' and in 0.54 of a second you’ll have a billion items on that topic to consider."
Stammer says housing, and the economy generally, does not face the full fire of dire times now feared.
"But prospects are there’ll be a further, noticeable, fall in the median house price (5 to 10%), followed by an elongated slump in house prices.
"This will involve real pain for some home owners who purchased at the peak of the cycle, paid over-the-top prices or borrowed too heavily, especially where people lose their jobs or partnerships break up."
Writing in The Australian, he noted traditional concerns for housing — the high level of household debt and mortgage stress — are exaggerated.
"But newer worries, such as the impact on bank lending from the revelations of unfair practices by the royal commission and from the likely introduction of changes to negative gearing and capital gains taxes (if the ALP wins government) will push housing prices lower and constrain recovery."
He said it won’t be easy to maintain a balanced outlook.
"Each item of news on the housing market, including weekly auction clearance figures, will be dissected to see what unpleasant news it offers on the housing outlook."
He concluded by suggesting plucking a couple of numbers — gross household debt and mortgage debt — from the aggregated balance sheet of Australian households is not enough.
"These ratios do not include important “buffers” such as offset accounts, redraw facilities and prepayments making household finances more resilient."
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'Deep gloom' has descended over housing market: Don Stammer 

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The latest REIV Days on Market (DOM) figures show Metro Melbourne home vendors had their properties on the market for a median period of 34 days before a private treaty sale in August.
That’s the lowest DOM figure in more than a year.
It is well down from a high of 50 days in February which includes the holiday break.
In Inner Melbourne in August, homes spent a median period of 41 days on the market, down from an annual peak of 52 in May.
Middle Melbourne home vendors waited a median period of 38 days before a sale in August, well below a peak of 63 days in February, while Outer Melbourne vendors waited only 35 days for a sale, compared to a high of 50 recorded in February.
REIV Chief Executive Officer Gil King said the figures demonstrated again that demand for Melbourne property was outstripping supply.
"We have now had 12 consecutive weeks of auction clearance rates of more than 70%, with the past five weeks above 75%," he said.
“These clearance rates are well above what we saw in the corresponding three months last year, but volumes of available houses are well down.”
"Anecdotally there is perhaps some reticence from vendors following the correction."
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Melbourne time on market down to 34 days as 2019 spring listings season begins

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Embarking on a new decade welcomes <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/buying/reimagining-the-norm-of-apartment-design">the next era of design trends</a>, building innovation and technology. Architects, urban planners, builders and developers will collectively relook at how our built environment responds to social, cultural and environmental shifts — as well as buyer demand. 

Based off industry dialogue and the exploration of new technology in 2019, we’ve compiled a list of building design predictions we’re expecting to see become more prevalent over the next few years.

1. Buyers are becoming more aware of what their home is built of and are driving a market shift for quality over quantity

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/5environmentaldesigns.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="327" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/5environmentaldesigns.jpg?itok=6FTt-4uf" width="580"></a></figure>Urban has noticed a shift in buyer demand for a more <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/5-of-melbournes-environmentally-conscious-new-development-highlights">sustainable approach to building design and construction</a>. Buyers are keen to play a more active role in ensuring their home is built to a high standard, using quality, safe and eco-conscious building materials. As home seekers move towards a more environmentally friendly lifestyle (including everything from food choices to beauty products), the conversation around harmful toxins and pollutants extends to the construction of their home too. With this sentiment in mind developers are actively marketing the health benefits of their properties, from “low VOC and formaldehyde-free” building materials to above minimum standard insulation for excellent thermal performance. These building choices both boost resident health and wellbeing, as well as lift the value of the home, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/kelvin-rachel-taing-of-excelon-projects-discuss-buyer-demand-for-sustainable-developments">providing developers with a strong incentive</a> to uplift the quality of their developments in 2020. 

2. Solar technology is being developed for more seamlessly integrated uses

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/the-general-in-northcote-melbourne-c111218-p12_0.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="870" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/the-general-in-northcote-melbourne-c111218-p12_0.jpg?itok=XVFNNruR" width="580"></a></figure>What was once an arbitrary placement of photovoltaic panels on residential roofing – solar technology has been developed to deliver more seamless integration within our built environment. Northcote’s The General impressed us with cutting edge <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/spotlight-on-sustainable-the-general-melbourne">photovoltaic balustrades</a>, giving the glass a dual purpose, and more aesthetic consideration. In 2020, we’re likely to see greater use of the exciting new paper-thin solar technology used within developments. Scientists have been making thin films out of <a href="http://www.buffalo.edu/ubnow/stories/2020/01/zeng-thin-films%C2%A0">barium zirconium </a><a href="http://www.buffalo.edu/ubnow/stories/2020/01/zeng-thin-films%C2%A0">sulfide</a><a href="http://www.buffalo.edu/ubnow/stories/2020/01/zeng-thin-films%C2%A0"> (BaZrS3)</a>, a material which has exceptional electronic and optical properties. With the ability to absorb light effectively and its light-weight quality, makes the material an ideal option for photovoltaic conduction.

<blockquote>
“For many decades, there have been only a handful of semiconductor materials that have been used, with silicon being the dominant material... Our thin films open the door to a new direction in semiconductor research. There’s a chance to explore the potential of a whole new class of materials.”
</blockquote>

Hao Zeng, Lead researcher, Professor of Physics, College of Arts and Sciences

3. Communal offerings within apartments are becoming more creative and future-focused

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2019-11-13_at_3.14.20_pm_0.png" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="190" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2019-11-13_at_3.14.20_pm_0.png?itok=llI9krHe" width="580"></a></figure>Apartment-living has seen an increased buyer interest across the board from a varied range of property seekers, from first home buyer and investors to families and downsizers. The demand for apartment living has pushed developers to think of creative ways to accommodate the varying requirements of buyers from each demographic. In recent years, apartment amenities have extended beyond a pool, gym and communal rooftop, to state-of-the-art wellness facilities, on-site cinemas, golf simulation rooms and fully integrated master-planned precincts. A trend we’ve noticed which is likely to continue this year is the emphasis on grass-roots facility offerings - mimicking that of a detached dwelling. This includes communal vegetable patches, living areas, tools sheds, maker spaces, and composting/recycling facilities.

4. Climate change will see a greater emphasis placed on the circular economy and supply chain of building materials and furniture

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/123.jpg" rel="gallery-all" title="Photo credit: Nicholas Failla"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="327" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/123.jpg?itok=CtEkZsZl" title="Photo credit: Nicholas Failla" width="580"></a>

<figcaption>Photo credit: Nicholas Failla</figcaption></figure>Having a green approach to business operation is becoming increasingly important to Australian companies’ strategies – and this approach encompasses the entire lifecycle of a product. Transparency within the supply chain means that the end-user (developer, builder, apartment owner) knows exactly where the materials have been sourced, who manufactured them and how it was transported to the final destination. Current conversation suggests that in the next few years, digital passports will be assigned to products so that buyers can confirm that the materials have been sourced ethically and environmentally consciously – as well as providing more accountability in the manufacturing line. 

<blockquote>
"Customers want clarity. It is expected that traceability will continue to become more prevalent and could reach the point where customers will be able to scan a product’s barcode at the point of sale and access data about its entire journey through the supply chain."
</blockquote>

Sean Galea-Pace, <a href="https://www.supplychaindigital.com/supply-chain-management/three-key-ways-tackle-supply-chain-2020%C2%A0">Supply Chain Digital</a>

Extending further than the supply chain is the circular economy, which looks at the recyclability of the product upon its end of use. This can mean opting for more natural, biodegradable products, or materials that can be repurposed after a building has been demolished.

<blockquote>
“We’re transforming the way we think about waste and resource recovery – developing a circular economy will deliver better environmental, social and economic results for Victoria.”
</blockquote>

Minister for Energy, Environment and Climate Change Lily D’Ambrosio

Good Environmental Choice Australia CEO, Kate Harris, recently had a chat with Urban.com.au about the importance of implementing the circular economy concept here in Australia as a means to mitigate construction waste. Harris suggested that some key drivers towards growth in recycling and upcycling in the construction environment could be incentivising, as well as a shift in dialogue about how upcycling can be beneficial rather than a hindrance to your project. 

<blockquote>
“It is reframing it as ‘resource recovery’. If we start to see it differently, we’ll use it differently.”
</blockquote>

Kate Harris, Good Environmental Choice Australia CEO (Listen to the podcast here)

5. Passivhaus design is becoming more popular among Australian homeowners

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/thefern1-1.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="327" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/thefern1-1.jpg?itok=RGDv7mgv" width="580"></a></figure>The year 2019 saw the launch of Australia’s first Passivhaus apartment building, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/no-dust-no-noise-no-bills-australias-first-passivhaus-apartments-are-almost-here">The Fern</a>, delivered by Steele Associates. Passivhaus design has proven to be a viable option for all parties – from its attractive financial savings for buyers (they can expect practically zero utility bills), to its environmentally-conscious energy-saving techniques and <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/oliver-steele-of-steele-associates-discusses-australian-building-codes-and-apartment-design">health benefits</a> (including exceptional ventilation, insulation and thermal bridging).

<blockquote>
“Passivhaus takes sustainable development to the next level, using proven building physics to create healthy living spaces that stay cool in summer and warm in winter with ultra-low energy use.”
</blockquote>

Oliver Steele, Steele Associates Director

With benefits that attract buyer demand and support developer’s commitments to environmental sustainability, it is likely we could see a rise in Passivhaus designed apartments in the pipeline for 2020.

6. Biophilic design is just as integral in commercial development as it is in residential

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/68clarkestsouthmelbourne_exterior_0.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="682" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/68clarkestsouthmelbourne_exterior_0.jpg?itok=BytWRjsS" width="580"></a></figure>Similar to Passivhaus design, Biophilic design is the human-centric approach to building design, by creating spaces which support the health and wellbeing of its residents. This can include promoting natural light and airflow, integrating urban greening through blurred indoor-outdoor distinction, adaptable floor-plans, and more. Last year, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/elenberg-frasers-vicki-karavasil-discusses-market-lanes-biophilic-design-approach">Elenberg Fraser designed</a> an exciting new ‘non-office, office’ called Market Lane.

<blockquote>
“In Market Lane, biophilic design has been applied in ways where there is a direct relationship to nature in space. Landscape is the obvious one, however here we go far beyond a few scattered pots, this is seriously dense planting, undulating in height and form to create usable spaces of varying levels of intimacy.”
</blockquote>

Vicki Karavasil, Elenberg Fraser

In addition to landscaping, Market Lane features a central void which allows air to circulate freely, tracked air quality and lighting sensitive to the circadian rhythm. 

<blockquote>
“What needs to be understood, is that some of these strategies may cost more upfront, however in the long-run if they have huge benefits which can retain the major tenants who value wellness high in their company identity, and can in effect have economic benefits through the ability to adapt and control of building services based on occupant needs and patterns.”
</blockquote>

Vicki Karavasil, Elenberg Fraser

7. Retrofitting and repurposing of older buildings remains a viable option 

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/old-new_1.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="327" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/old-new_1.jpg?itok=w-4CMFWA" width="580"></a></figure>Australia’s cities are enriched with a unique tapestry of architecture and history, so where buildings can be preserved, it is often a desirable option to do so. With a future focus on climate change and environmental sustainability, the 'take, make and dispose' ideology is a concept that needs to change immediately if we want to see our planet regenerate any time soon.

By <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/upcycling-australia-why-demolish-when-you-can-re-polish">upcycling building materials</a> such as bricks, or historic facades, we can extend a material’s lifecycle, as well as reducing carbon emissions that would be used in the production of the brand new equivalent material. 

While entire building retrofits are costly and challenging, salvaging perfectly sound materials and preserving the unique quality of Australia’s historic architecture remains popular among architects, due to the unique quality of the finished result, and the ability to eliminate significant wastage.

<blockquote>
“Upcycling adds value by transforming or reinventing an otherwise-disposable item into something of higher quality.”
</blockquote>

William McDonough, Founding Principal of William McDonough + Partners

8. Carparking and car-use is likely to be reconsidered within both residential development and urban design

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/park2.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="327" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/park2.jpg?itok=h5BCykQK" width="580"></a></figure>With the rising popularity of car-sharing, taxi service apps and public transport upgrades, car use in Australia is changing drastically. This is encouraging designers and urban planners to <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/university-of-western-australia-students-discuss-disrupting-the-car-parking-status-quo-in-perth">relook at how car parking is integrated within our cities</a> and apartment buildings. <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/nightingale-housing">Nightingale Housing</a> made a bold decision to avoid creating car parking spaces, and instead provide residents with a carsharing membership, which was approved by Moreland City Council as an appropriate solution. In the City of Melbourne, despite having more than 215,000 parking spaces available, approximately one-third are <a href="https://profile.id.com.au/perth/car-ownership">not used every day</a>. 

Over the course of 2020, we are expecting to see further developments in the introduction of electric car charging facilities, integration of car-sharing and <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/high-yield-produce-gardens-with-next-to-no-maintenance-are-set-to-enhance-apartment-living-in-australia">innovative repurposing of disused parking spaces</a>. 
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