Savills

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The prime residential forecasts for the 30 cities in Savills World Cities Prime Residential Index highlight the strength of prime residential property.

Average growth for the cities in the index is forecast at 1.6% for 2021. Sentiment is improving as the rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine begins in many countries and, despite the uncertainties which still linger, prime residential property is expected to remain an active market.

The resilience of prime residential markets was highlighted during the second half of 2020. Savills World Cities Prime Residential Index recorded an average increase of 0.8% for the cities in the index at a time when global GDP is recovering from the impact of Covid-19 and subsequent lockdowns.

Many of the factors which helped drive the prime residential market in the second half of 2020 are expected to continue into 2021, including low stock levels in some locations and the desire for more space.

Historically low interest rates, which are expected to remain low for some time, also make the sector attractive for wealth preservation. These factors, and the sector’s strong fundamentals, mean positive price growth is expected in 19 cities, compared with nine that are expected to see small price falls.

<img alt="" height="636" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/savills_world_performance_2021.jpg" width="1200">

Source: Savills Research

<h2>The high fliers: +6%</h2>

Of the cities in the Savills World Cities Prime Residential Index, Seoul saw the strongest growth during 2020 with prices increasing 8.6%. This strong performance is expected to continue over the coming year. The market remains on an upward trend, driven by high demand from historically low interest rates, strong economic performance and short supply.

Berlin and Sydney are the next strongest performers. The German capital has been on an upward trend with high levels of demand that exceed supply. Sydney has seen comparatively weaker performance in recent years but is expected to improve in 2021 as economic activity picks up.

<h2>The strong contenders: +4-6%</h2>

Guangzhou is expected to see the highest growth out of the Chinese cities in the index over the coming year. The city is benefitting from urban regeneration projects as well as its proximity to comparatively higher-valued Shenzhen.

In the USA, as with many Western markets, the search for more space was a pandemic-driven trend during 2020. This is expected to continue over the coming year, benefiting cities that offer space, such as Miami.

Miami also has particularly attractive tax advantages. Should the rise in remote working continue, those who no longer need to stay in one location for work may find Miami appealing.

Mumbai has seen stamp duty changes over the past year. The forecast growth in Mumbai, driven by the stamp duty reduction and low mortgage rates, follows price falls due to an oversupply.

<h2>The steady cities: &gt;0-4%</h2>

Despite the headwinds of 2020, supply remains a significant influencer of price movements. Many cities that expected to see positive growth of up to 4% in 2021 are markets characterised by low supply levels, e.g. San Francisco, Amsterdam and Tokyo.

London’s prime market is expected to see a turnaround, with forecast growth underpinned by the value on offer compared with its peak in 2014.

The Chinese cities of Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Beijing are expected to see growth of between 0% and 4%. These markets have performed well in 2020 as economic activity returned. Residential is seen as a safe investment, which is expected to continue in 2021. Beijing has a slightly weaker forecast than the other cities in China due to heavy local regulation.

<h2>A softening of prices: -2-0%</h2>

Some prime residential markets are more reliant on international demand than others. For these markets, travel restrictions have hindered performance during the past year. While vaccine news does bolster optimism for the return of travel, a number of markets that are driven by international demand, including Dubai, Kuala Lumpur and Lisbon, are expected to see a slight softening of prices over the coming year. Lower international demand is also expected to impact the prime market in Paris.

A weaker economic environment is expected to impede growth in a number of cities in Southern Europe, including Milan, Rome, Barcelona and Madrid, while oversupply also continues to play a role for a few cities in this price growth tier, namely Bangkok and Dubai.

<h2>Down, but not out: &lt;-2%</h2>

In Hong Kong, the highest valued city in our index, prices have been impacted by political uncertainty. Prime values are expected to continue their downward trend over the coming year.

New York’s prime market has been on a downward trend in recent years due to oversupply. The pandemic has also caused a temporary move away from densely populated urban living – whether this becomes a long-term trend, however, still remains to be seen.

Sean Hyett is an analyst for Savills World Research
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Joel Robinson

Sydney forecast to sit among the 2021 residential high fliers: Savills

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The COVID-enduced downturn in the Australian economy has given residential developers a chance to look to the future and secure residential sites across Sydney.

The NSW Residential Site Sales Division at Savills secured 12 sales over 2020, worth over $330 million, and have another four sites set to exchange early this year for another $190 million.

Apartment sites located near rail, retail amenity and educational facilities remain in high demand, with the lower and upper north shore, city fringe and inner west particularly popular.

Real estate forecasts are strong for 2021 and beyond, particularly in Sydney, where 

Off the plan sales in premium residential blocks such as Crown Residences, Kurraba Residences and the Sirius Building were strong over 2020, particularly in the owner-occupier market.

Savills Australia's director of residential site sales Stuart Cox says he anticipates 2021 being their biggest year on record.

"The residential market is set to bounce in a very positive direction," Cox says.

Cox suggests 2021 has all the ingredients for a rapid recovery for the residential market, with record low interest rates, government grants and incentives and the winding back of restrictive lending obligations which will make it easier and quicker for owner occupiers and investors to get a loan, once it comes into effect in March 2021.

“House and land developments experienced a huge resurgence during 2020 as developers took advantage of the various Federal and State stimulus programs currently available which were introduced to keep the construction industry going through the pandemic, these measures are expected to continue to strengthen the demand for house and land developments well into 2021," Cox says.

Cox said his team is still experiencing significant interest from well-established local Asian developers with strong offshore backing for sites in excess of $50 million that can provide scale and access to rail networks.

“Looking ahead to 2021, there are a significant number of sites already signed up and set to hit the market towards the beginning of 2021, with site values ranging from $10m to over $100m, located across of Sydney.

"We anticipate 2021 being our biggest year on record as the residential market is set to bounce in a very positive direction."

 

 
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Residential developers eye quick recovery in Sydney as development sites get snapped up

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EXPERT INSIGHT

This year has been a rollercoaster for residential values, from January onward the market began to rally off the back of some political and financial certainty in Q3/Q4 2019.

This ended abruptly at the beginning of lockdowns as we saw prices decline seemingly 10-15% overnight.

Once restrictions were lifted, buyer sentiment and demand returned to near pre-lockdown levels while the number of properties on the market remained considerably less than comparable months in previous years.

Low stock levels meant that there was a shift in the supply/demand dynamic which is now weighted toward larger dwellings as buyers' value usable space more than ever.

With stronger demand per property some local markets saw houses sell for record highs towards the end of 2020, surpassing previous peaks set in 2017. The apartment market has not been as lucky due to other external factors that appear to have stagnated prices however for the most part, this segment of the market has remained stable since restrictions were eased.  

Over the year we also saw a sharp decline in rents which has meant less investors were actively looking at residential property due to lower yields. What we are now seeing is a steady return of investors to the market due to the poor performance of cash so while yields may have declined, the net position of many investors remains relative due to lower borrowing costs.  

Next year the following changes are proposed to take place which will have significant impact on the local residential property market:

Changes to the National Consumer Credit Protection Act - 1 March 2021 
While it won't quite be like the old days when you would walk into a bank and walk out with a loan approval, one of the legislative frameworks that banks work within and are held to account will be eased. This is proposed to shift the balance of responsible lending from lender back to consumer which will have interesting effects, one of which we will likely see is an increase in borrowing in affordable markets where access to credit has previously not been possible or too expensive. Is a bubble coming, maybe, all we know for sure is that there will be more money in the market which will likely lead to price growth. 

COVID-19 Vaccine - First half 2021 
Many industries and local businesses seem to be almost back to normal (apart from distancing measures) so while we are able to live and operate locally without a vaccine, the news is welcomed and will give certainty to businesses and consumers who will be able to forward plan and travel internationally. To give you an understanding of one of the biggest impacts a vaccine will have, International tourism in Australia is a ~50 Billion dollar industry that is currently non-operational. 

Changes to stamp duty in NSW - Second half 2021 
The formula of how the new duty will be accrued is yet to be determined and this will impact the feasibility of a more transactional property market, however the reform in principle has been welcomed by both potential buyers and sellers. As always, time will tell, however we expect to see this enable the business of real estate manage cashflow better (developers, investors etc.) which will create additional activity and subsequently increase prices with competition.

Overall, in 2021 it will be a good year to own residential property, I expect the detached dwelling market to continue to outperform others in inner suburbs while we will likely see a renaissance in off-the-plan sales as investors and first home buyers begin competing for the same stock, leaving a hole in the market and pushing up prices making currently held development sites more feasible.

Chris Orr is the director of residential at Savills Australia
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This year has been a rollercoaster for residential values, from January onward the market began to rally off the back of some political and financial certainty in Q3/Q4 2019.

2021 will be a good year to own residential property: Savills director of residential Chris Orr

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A new global inner city metropolitan housing trend has arrived in Australia with full force which may assist to solve some of Sydney's housing shortages and affordability constraints.
Compact co-living dominated by young professional residents often from the start-up, creative, financial or professional sectors has become an emerging property sector, reports recent Savills Australia research.
Many occupants earn above the national average income, making them ideal prospective tenants for housing that mixes high quality rental rooms with communal lifestyle spaces.
Tertiary students have long sought co-living most recently in pod-style micro-apartments.
But the purpose built graduate, young professional city dweller accommodation is seen as a new rung, a step up from high quality purpose built student accommodation.
With the latest offering in a Paddington terrace house, there is no one size fits all approach in creating spaces for these community inspired, experience orientated young renters.  
The research shows that co-living is on the rise, emerging in key cities such as San Francisco, New York, London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Singapore.
The top five co-living hotspots in Sydney, according to the Savills report, are Waterloo-Beaconsfield, Parramatta-Rosehill, Potts Point-Woolloomooloo, Redfern-Chippendale, Sydney-Haymarket-The Rocks.
These are followed by Newtown-Camperdown-Darlington, Pyrmont-Ultimo, Surry Hills, Bondi Beach-North Bondi, and Erskineville-Alexandria.  
Leading the way are UKO, Hmlet, Zuu. 
One runs everything from movie nights, yoga in the courtyard, to gin making workshops!
They have been reporting full $500 a week occupancy, highlighting demand for their product that comes with bicycle parking, roof top terraces, outdoor cinema screens, shared laundries, barbeques, pools and kitchens.
The properties often fall under the next-generation boarding house code, so occupants typically sign a membership agreement instead of a lease.
“What’s interesting is that there is no one size fits all approach in creating spaces, as experienced in the student accommodation sector,” according to direct of student accommodation at Savills Australia, Conal Newland.
Sydney and Melbourne dominate emergence of the sector at scale in Australia as analysis shows that 88 of the top 100 regions for investment and development are located across these two global gateway cities with strong international student prescence.
In Melbourne, the top co-living hotspots are the Melbourne CBD, Richmond, Southbank, South Yarra East, St. Kilda, Prahran-Windsor, Brunswick, North Melbourne, Nawthorn, and Carlton.  
"As development costs and relative housing unaffordability continues its upward trend in Australia's capital cities, co-living options will only mature and success," said Newland.
"Co-living is a viable need, and it's going to become more and more of a necessity over time," said Mr Newland.
Some co-living operators are looking to be leaseholders with others fully developing and owning the real estate and operations.
The high-quality rental rooms on short-to long-term leases generally operate under the boarding house regulations. 
Across Australia, 1.46 million 25 to 35 year olds rent, reports Savills. 
Nationally, over 250,000 25 to 34 year olds live on their own.
For this demographic in particular, co-living offers social interactions, wellbeing and experience, alongside privacy in your living space and beautiful, sophisticated building designs, said Paul Savitz at Savills Australia.  
He said government policy is pivotal in attracting ongoing investment.
"Australian lawmakers should be mindful of passing legislation that may reduce the attractiveness of investments into new housing typologies which are more suited to generations with different preferences," Mr Savitz notes.
This article first appeared in The Daily Telegraph.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Co-living emerging as new global property trend

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Industrial and logistics assets are now firmly at the heart of core investment strategies and, according to Savills, have accounted for a record 20% of the total investment volume into real estate in the first half of this year.
For the first time last year, volumes of investment into the global logistics sector overtook transactional activity into the retail sector, and industrial yields are now on a par with the retail and office sectors.
“The current global ecommerce boom, accelerated by consumers shifting their purchasing online throughout the pandemic, has been a major catalyst for this sector’s growth,” says Paul Tostevin, Director, Savills World Research.
Forecasts from the Centre of Retail Research predict that online sales will grow by 31% in Western Europe in 2020. This will push the average ecommerce penetration rate from 12% to 16%. In the US, the same figure is expected to reach 14.5%, an all-time high, according to eMarketer. Both markets however have some way to go until they reach China’s ecommerce penetration levels, which stand at 27%, and illustrates the growth potential to come.
“Ecommerce isn’t necessarily the sole factor boosting demand,” adds Paul Tostevin. “Recent supply chain disruption, coupled with escalating trade wars is leading to supply chain diversification, boosting demand for industrial and logistics space in strategic locations closer to the major consumer markets.”
As investor competition for logistics and industrial assets intensifies, prices have risen and yields have compressed. Savills research states that, between 2007 and 2017, global industrial yields averaged 7.5%, 70 basis points (bps) above average office yields. Yet, in the second quarter of 2020 industrial yields had moved in to 6.1%, just 10 bps above global office yields.
Kevin Mofid, Director of Savills Industrial and Logistic Research says, “As the sector has matured, there has been a shift in investor composition towards institutional capital and portfolio deals have accounted for a larger slice of the market, attracting price premiums. Former developer traders now see the income opportunity and have become developer holders. The major funds and REITS are attracted to the sector’s long term income streams and there’s a growing scarcity value as stock is being held for longer.”
Savills observes that the market in China remains extremely resilient, logistics volumes in the first half of 2020 stood at for 80% of 2019’s total. India, meanwhile, is emerging as an alternative manufacturing destination to China, helped by low labour costs, trade openness and a business friendly government. This is fuelling significant investment in the country’s industrial and logistics sector.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Global investment into industrial and logistics sector up sixfold: Savills

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CPlusC Architectural Workshop Pty Ltd has snapped up a vacant, freehold mixed-use building in Sydney’s East from a private investor for under $2.5 million, reflecting a significant building rate for vacant City Fringe assets. 
Located at <a href="https://www.realcommercial.com.au/sold/property-466-cleveland-street-surry-hills-nsw-2010-503554690" target="_blank">466 Cleveland Street, Surry Hills</a>, the two storey property offers a net lettable area of 182sqm (including 36sqm outdoor terrace) on a 147sqm site and is fitted with a commercial kitchen, grease trap, cool room and exhaust. 
There is a current DA in place for a dental practice and the building will benefit from the new Light Rail being constructed along Devonshire Street, connecting the East to Central Station and the CBD. The proposed stop will be a 100m walk to the corner or Bourke Street and Devonshire Street. This will be in conjunction with the current extensive bus network just moments away. 
The property sold through Ollie Ridley, Nick Lower and Selin Ince of Savills Australia who said there was a lot of interest from local investors, developers and owner occupiers looking for a trophy asset in an enviable location.
According to Ollie Ridley, Executive, Metropolitan &amp; Regional Sales at Savills Australia, “The repositioning potential and DA approval was especially appealing to those within the dentistry/healthcare world, along with other affiliated fields looking for high exposure locations within prime Inner-City locations”.
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Surry Hills dental practice space sells to architects

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A local Sydney/ Brisbane private syndicate has beaten locals to snap up a residential development site in Greenslopes, just 4kms south east of the Brisbane CBD for $2.45 million.
Located at <a href="https://www.commercialrealestate.com.au/property/100-nicholson-street-greenslopes-qld-4120-2015810068" target="_blank">100 Nicholson Street</a>, IVIE Residence is a boutique townhouse development site.
The 3,489sqm site is zoned LMR2 Low medium density residential (2 or 3 storey mix).
With bus services available within 300 metres, it was sold by Robert Dunne and Will Carman of Savills Australia. 
According to Robert Dunne, director, Commercial Sales, at Savills Australia, this is an exciting opportunity to develop the final stage of IVIE Residence, a multi stage development comprising 26 x 3-storey townhouses.
"Stage 1 has been completed and contains 5 x 4 bedroom townhouses with direct frontage to Nicholson Street and Stage 2 is approved and ready to go”. 
Stage 2 comprises 21 premium townhouses offering 9 x 3 bedrooms and 12 x 4 bedrooms, serviced by 43 car parks.
Mr Dunne said the campaign saw 192 interested parties and 69 Due Diligence distributed throughout the four week campaign. 
Greenslopes is an established residential suburb that has a population of approximately 8,936 residents, which predominantly comprises independent youth and maturing or established independents.
The median average weekly income in Greenslopes is $1,671, which sits above the Australian average.
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69 developers do due diligence on Greenslopes DA approved site

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The disruption of the Covid-19 pandemic has led to real estate transaction numbers coming to a standstill across the globe, and had a significant impact on the industry, according to the latest study from Savills Research. 
Savills Research has carried out a sentiment survey of Savills global residential network to assess how Covid-19 is changing the residential property market. 
Across all respondents, 47% anticipate vendors keeping their properties on the market at current prices, though 48% anticipate some level of price reductions. 
Titled the Savills Residential Global Market Sentiment Survey, 50 experts from across the globe took part. 
90% of respondents stated that 30% or fewer of their buyers had stopped actively looking. 
Only 6% of vendors have or are considering removing their property from the market, according to the report.
30% of markets have reported legal changes to better facilitate business performance.
The survey also found that, on average, buyers felt that they were likely to priorities home offices, Wi-Fi, and green spaces in future properties.
In Australia, Paul Craig, CEO of Savills Australia &amp; New Zealand said it is predicted that a shortage of supply will continue for some time, due to the uncertainty in the market, however this last weekend marks an easement in home open restrictions which is a step in the right direction.
“If you are a qualified buyer, this is a great time to be on the lookout for a residential property, due to record low interest rates and attractive pricing,” Mr Craig said.
“Given the encouraging progress with limiting COVID-19 in our country, why wouldn’t you want to own a piece of Australia!”
According to Chris Orr, Director of Residential at Savills Australia, prices have the potential to rebound strongly. 
“Time will tell however, but the common belief amongst the industry is that we will see residential values rebound very strongly due to the lower volatility compared to other markets, lower borrowing costs for housing and the Government’s comments around the importance of both construction employment and the housing market” he said. 
Mr Orr said his team are seeing buyers looking to upsize while it is cheaper to do so as well as luxury assets with unique/timeless appeal and off-the-plan inquiry is increasing (with delayed settlements)        
Mr Orr believes that the rest of this year and into early next will see a rise in distressed sales (to what extent is unknown) however these will come to market in a staggered approach and likely not until the deferred payments offered by banks come due. 
“It will be interesting to see what the increase in supply will look like and the effect it has on pricing, however, I’d expect to see an upward trending run on the market” he concluded.
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Covid-19 pandemic driving significant industry changes: Savills

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Savills Sunshine Coast has welcomed two new executives to their sales and leasing team, with the agents coming as a package deal from Ray White Commercial Caloundra.  
David Tyson and Luca Reynolds have worked in partnership over the last 18 months, with Mr Tyson describing their move to Savills as both progressive and exciting.  
“The overall positive and can-do attitude makes Savills a great environment to work in, and has madefor a relatively seamless transfer.  
“This move has allowed us to offer a higher level of corporate service to our valued clients,” Mr Tyson said.  
Mr Tyson previously worked as a Valuer for 20 years, and as a Project Manager where he completed a Post Graduate degree in Project Management.  
“I also have experience in a couple of Government property and project management roles, and am currently enjoying my fourth year in commercial property agency,” he said.  
Mr Reynolds has a background in construction across Queensland, which he said formed the basis of his passion for the real estate industry, and his appreciation for quality architecture.  
Prior to working in commercial property, Mr Reynolds lived in Sweden where he ran his own business.  
“I was the founder of a labour hire company in Sweden which then helped fund my private pilot license to fly Turbine Helicopters. After this I moved back to Australia to begin my real estate careerhere on the Sunshine Coast,” he said.
The pair will be focusing on general agency across commercial, retail and industrial sectors on the Sunshine Coast.  
The duo have already secured several industrial projects to market, including a new 12 unit industrial estate under construction at 3 Kelly Court in Landsborough. 
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