Savills

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The prime residential forecasts for the 30 cities in Savills World Cities Prime Residential Index highlight the strength of prime residential property.

Average growth for the cities in the index is forecast at 1.6% for 2021. Sentiment is improving as the rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine begins in many countries and, despite the uncertainties which still linger, prime residential property is expected to remain an active market.

The resilience of prime residential markets was highlighted during the second half of 2020. Savills World Cities Prime Residential Index recorded an average increase of 0.8% for the cities in the index at a time when global GDP is recovering from the impact of Covid-19 and subsequent lockdowns.

Many of the factors which helped drive the prime residential market in the second half of 2020 are expected to continue into 2021, including low stock levels in some locations and the desire for more space.

Historically low interest rates, which are expected to remain low for some time, also make the sector attractive for wealth preservation. These factors, and the sector’s strong fundamentals, mean positive price growth is expected in 19 cities, compared with nine that are expected to see small price falls.

<img alt="" height="636" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/savills_world_performance_2021.jpg" width="1200">

Source: Savills Research

<h2>The high fliers: +6%</h2>

Of the cities in the Savills World Cities Prime Residential Index, Seoul saw the strongest growth during 2020 with prices increasing 8.6%. This strong performance is expected to continue over the coming year. The market remains on an upward trend, driven by high demand from historically low interest rates, strong economic performance and short supply.

Berlin and Sydney are the next strongest performers. The German capital has been on an upward trend with high levels of demand that exceed supply. Sydney has seen comparatively weaker performance in recent years but is expected to improve in 2021 as economic activity picks up.

<h2>The strong contenders: +4-6%</h2>

Guangzhou is expected to see the highest growth out of the Chinese cities in the index over the coming year. The city is benefitting from urban regeneration projects as well as its proximity to comparatively higher-valued Shenzhen.

In the USA, as with many Western markets, the search for more space was a pandemic-driven trend during 2020. This is expected to continue over the coming year, benefiting cities that offer space, such as Miami.

Miami also has particularly attractive tax advantages. Should the rise in remote working continue, those who no longer need to stay in one location for work may find Miami appealing.

Mumbai has seen stamp duty changes over the past year. The forecast growth in Mumbai, driven by the stamp duty reduction and low mortgage rates, follows price falls due to an oversupply.

<h2>The steady cities: &gt;0-4%</h2>

Despite the headwinds of 2020, supply remains a significant influencer of price movements. Many cities that expected to see positive growth of up to 4% in 2021 are markets characterised by low supply levels, e.g. San Francisco, Amsterdam and Tokyo.

London’s prime market is expected to see a turnaround, with forecast growth underpinned by the value on offer compared with its peak in 2014.

The Chinese cities of Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Beijing are expected to see growth of between 0% and 4%. These markets have performed well in 2020 as economic activity returned. Residential is seen as a safe investment, which is expected to continue in 2021. Beijing has a slightly weaker forecast than the other cities in China due to heavy local regulation.

<h2>A softening of prices: -2-0%</h2>

Some prime residential markets are more reliant on international demand than others. For these markets, travel restrictions have hindered performance during the past year. While vaccine news does bolster optimism for the return of travel, a number of markets that are driven by international demand, including Dubai, Kuala Lumpur and Lisbon, are expected to see a slight softening of prices over the coming year. Lower international demand is also expected to impact the prime market in Paris.

A weaker economic environment is expected to impede growth in a number of cities in Southern Europe, including Milan, Rome, Barcelona and Madrid, while oversupply also continues to play a role for a few cities in this price growth tier, namely Bangkok and Dubai.

<h2>Down, but not out: &lt;-2%</h2>

In Hong Kong, the highest valued city in our index, prices have been impacted by political uncertainty. Prime values are expected to continue their downward trend over the coming year.

New York’s prime market has been on a downward trend in recent years due to oversupply. The pandemic has also caused a temporary move away from densely populated urban living – whether this becomes a long-term trend, however, still remains to be seen.

Sean Hyett is an analyst for Savills World Research
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Joel Robinson

Sydney forecast to sit among the 2021 residential high fliers: Savills

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The COVID-enduced downturn in the Australian economy has given residential developers a chance to look to the future and secure residential sites across Sydney.

The NSW Residential Site Sales Division at Savills secured 12 sales over 2020, worth over $330 million, and have another four sites set to exchange early this year for another $190 million.

Apartment sites located near rail, retail amenity and educational facilities remain in high demand, with the lower and upper north shore, city fringe and inner west particularly popular.

Real estate forecasts are strong for 2021 and beyond, particularly in Sydney, where 

Off the plan sales in premium residential blocks such as Crown Residences, Kurraba Residences and the Sirius Building were strong over 2020, particularly in the owner-occupier market.

Savills Australia's director of residential site sales Stuart Cox says he anticipates 2021 being their biggest year on record.

"The residential market is set to bounce in a very positive direction," Cox says.

Cox suggests 2021 has all the ingredients for a rapid recovery for the residential market, with record low interest rates, government grants and incentives and the winding back of restrictive lending obligations which will make it easier and quicker for owner occupiers and investors to get a loan, once it comes into effect in March 2021.

“House and land developments experienced a huge resurgence during 2020 as developers took advantage of the various Federal and State stimulus programs currently available which were introduced to keep the construction industry going through the pandemic, these measures are expected to continue to strengthen the demand for house and land developments well into 2021," Cox says.

Cox said his team is still experiencing significant interest from well-established local Asian developers with strong offshore backing for sites in excess of $50 million that can provide scale and access to rail networks.

“Looking ahead to 2021, there are a significant number of sites already signed up and set to hit the market towards the beginning of 2021, with site values ranging from $10m to over $100m, located across of Sydney.

"We anticipate 2021 being our biggest year on record as the residential market is set to bounce in a very positive direction."

 

 
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Residential developers eye quick recovery in Sydney as development sites get snapped up

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EXPERT INSIGHT

This year has been a rollercoaster for residential values, from January onward the market began to rally off the back of some political and financial certainty in Q3/Q4 2019.

This ended abruptly at the beginning of lockdowns as we saw prices decline seemingly 10-15% overnight.

Once restrictions were lifted, buyer sentiment and demand returned to near pre-lockdown levels while the number of properties on the market remained considerably less than comparable months in previous years.

Low stock levels meant that there was a shift in the supply/demand dynamic which is now weighted toward larger dwellings as buyers' value usable space more than ever.

With stronger demand per property some local markets saw houses sell for record highs towards the end of 2020, surpassing previous peaks set in 2017. The apartment market has not been as lucky due to other external factors that appear to have stagnated prices however for the most part, this segment of the market has remained stable since restrictions were eased.  

Over the year we also saw a sharp decline in rents which has meant less investors were actively looking at residential property due to lower yields. What we are now seeing is a steady return of investors to the market due to the poor performance of cash so while yields may have declined, the net position of many investors remains relative due to lower borrowing costs.  

Next year the following changes are proposed to take place which will have significant impact on the local residential property market:

Changes to the National Consumer Credit Protection Act - 1 March 2021 
While it won't quite be like the old days when you would walk into a bank and walk out with a loan approval, one of the legislative frameworks that banks work within and are held to account will be eased. This is proposed to shift the balance of responsible lending from lender back to consumer which will have interesting effects, one of which we will likely see is an increase in borrowing in affordable markets where access to credit has previously not been possible or too expensive. Is a bubble coming, maybe, all we know for sure is that there will be more money in the market which will likely lead to price growth. 

COVID-19 Vaccine - First half 2021 
Many industries and local businesses seem to be almost back to normal (apart from distancing measures) so while we are able to live and operate locally without a vaccine, the news is welcomed and will give certainty to businesses and consumers who will be able to forward plan and travel internationally. To give you an understanding of one of the biggest impacts a vaccine will have, International tourism in Australia is a ~50 Billion dollar industry that is currently non-operational. 

Changes to stamp duty in NSW - Second half 2021 
The formula of how the new duty will be accrued is yet to be determined and this will impact the feasibility of a more transactional property market, however the reform in principle has been welcomed by both potential buyers and sellers. As always, time will tell, however we expect to see this enable the business of real estate manage cashflow better (developers, investors etc.) which will create additional activity and subsequently increase prices with competition.

Overall, in 2021 it will be a good year to own residential property, I expect the detached dwelling market to continue to outperform others in inner suburbs while we will likely see a renaissance in off-the-plan sales as investors and first home buyers begin competing for the same stock, leaving a hole in the market and pushing up prices making currently held development sites more feasible.

Chris Orr is the director of residential at Savills Australia
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This year has been a rollercoaster for residential values, from January onward the market began to rally off the back of some political and financial certainty in Q3/Q4 2019.

2021 will be a good year to own residential property: Savills director of residential Chris Orr

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A new global inner city metropolitan housing trend has arrived in Australia with full force which may assist to solve some of Sydney's housing shortages and affordability constraints.
Compact co-living dominated by young professional residents often from the start-up, creative, financial or professional sectors has become an emerging property sector, reports recent Savills Australia research.
Many occupants earn above the national average income, making them ideal prospective tenants for housing that mixes high quality rental rooms with communal lifestyle spaces.
Tertiary students have long sought co-living most recently in pod-style micro-apartments.
But the purpose built graduate, young professional city dweller accommodation is seen as a new rung, a step up from high quality purpose built student accommodation.
With the latest offering in a Paddington terrace house, there is no one size fits all approach in creating spaces for these community inspired, experience orientated young renters.  
The research shows that co-living is on the rise, emerging in key cities such as San Francisco, New York, London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Singapore.
The top five co-living hotspots in Sydney, according to the Savills report, are Waterloo-Beaconsfield, Parramatta-Rosehill, Potts Point-Woolloomooloo, Redfern-Chippendale, Sydney-Haymarket-The Rocks.
These are followed by Newtown-Camperdown-Darlington, Pyrmont-Ultimo, Surry Hills, Bondi Beach-North Bondi, and Erskineville-Alexandria.  
Leading the way are UKO, Hmlet, Zuu. 
One runs everything from movie nights, yoga in the courtyard, to gin making workshops!
They have been reporting full $500 a week occupancy, highlighting demand for their product that comes with bicycle parking, roof top terraces, outdoor cinema screens, shared laundries, barbeques, pools and kitchens.
The properties often fall under the next-generation boarding house code, so occupants typically sign a membership agreement instead of a lease.
“What’s interesting is that there is no one size fits all approach in creating spaces, as experienced in the student accommodation sector,” according to direct of student accommodation at Savills Australia, Conal Newland.
Sydney and Melbourne dominate emergence of the sector at scale in Australia as analysis shows that 88 of the top 100 regions for investment and development are located across these two global gateway cities with strong international student prescence.
In Melbourne, the top co-living hotspots are the Melbourne CBD, Richmond, Southbank, South Yarra East, St. Kilda, Prahran-Windsor, Brunswick, North Melbourne, Nawthorn, and Carlton.  
"As development costs and relative housing unaffordability continues its upward trend in Australia's capital cities, co-living options will only mature and success," said Newland.
"Co-living is a viable need, and it's going to become more and more of a necessity over time," said Mr Newland.
Some co-living operators are looking to be leaseholders with others fully developing and owning the real estate and operations.
The high-quality rental rooms on short-to long-term leases generally operate under the boarding house regulations. 
Across Australia, 1.46 million 25 to 35 year olds rent, reports Savills. 
Nationally, over 250,000 25 to 34 year olds live on their own.
For this demographic in particular, co-living offers social interactions, wellbeing and experience, alongside privacy in your living space and beautiful, sophisticated building designs, said Paul Savitz at Savills Australia.  
He said government policy is pivotal in attracting ongoing investment.
"Australian lawmakers should be mindful of passing legislation that may reduce the attractiveness of investments into new housing typologies which are more suited to generations with different preferences," Mr Savitz notes.
This article first appeared in The Daily Telegraph.
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Co-living emerging as new global property trend

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A Primbee freehold property offered for sale last December is now under contract.
Savills Australia and WHK Commercial offered the prime freehold, vacant, single titled parcel of land on the highway in the coastal suburb of Primbee. 
Set within an established residential and commercial precinct, the 8,615 square metre site at <a href="https://www.realcommercial.com.au/property-land+development-nsw-primbee-502546514" target="_blank">Lot 1, Golf Place</a> adjoined the Port Kembla Golf Club.
It is 1.8 kilometres from Perkins Beach, Windang.
The site is relatively level, clear of any vegetation with town water services connected.
The surrounding area is predominately made up of residential, recreational and environmental use.
Under the Wollongong City Council, the property is zoned SP3 Tourist and is to be sold on a vacant possession basis.
Robert Lowe of Savills Australia and James Egan of WHK Commercial prevouslybindicated under the current zoning parameters, the property allows for and is not limited to, the construction of commercial shops, childcare centres, tourist and visitor accommodation (STCA)
There is a height limit of 9 metres and FSR of 1.5:1, subject to approval by Wollongong City Council.
Over recent years, the Illawarra region has witnessed significant growth across both the residential and commercial sectors with an increasing population expected to grow to 465,400 people approximately by 2031.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Freehold property in Primbee, Wollongong precinct sold

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Two individual adjacent freestanding office buildings in South Brisbane have been sold as a package deal to a Brisbane-based organisation.  
The properties located on Peel Street were offered for sale through Gregory Woods and Robert Dunne of Savills.
Woods said the campaign attracted 81 enquiries from both developers and local businesses due to the near-city location and strong redevelopment prospects.
Buyers were being told more than $4 million would secure the acquisition.
Woods said the new owners beat four other bidders to secure the properties, and intend to refurbish and occupy one building, and lease out the adjoining property.
“The properties presented an attractive opportunity for owner occupiers, with the added opportunity to generate rental income from the second building," adding the new owner can do this while maintaining a medium term redevelopment play with the Principle Centre zoning providing a 10 storey height limit
The properties total a combined site area of 910sq m, with each property covering 455sq m and offering a net lettable area of 360sq m and 313sq m respectively.
 
 
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Savills secure two-in-one South Brisbane deal

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A Morningside freehold warehouse located in the southern TradeCoast has been picked up by an owner occupier for $3,500,000. 
Savills agent Shaw Harrison was initially appointed to lease the property located at <a href="https://www.realcommercial.com.au/property-industrial+warehouse-qld-morningside-502520610" target="_blank">345 Thynne Road</a> as the previous owner occupiers had decided it was surplus to their needs. 
“Market activity at the moment is particularly thick with buyer interest and whilst we were initially promoting the property for lease, we received multiple offers to purchase the property at the same time,” Harrison said.
The property last sold for $2,530,000 in 2014 representing a 40 percent growth on the recent sale
Harrison said that the buyer who was in the warehousing &amp; logistics industry was spilling over in their existing warehouse around the corner.
“We actually had five other registered buyers that were disappointed when they missed out, as it wasn’t on the market long,” he said.
“I think users were attracted to the low site cover and usually properties with cranes or heavy rated power are popular because they are hard to find."
The 4,991 sqm site includes a corporate freestanding building of 1,810sqm which includes a renovated office over two levels and a warehouse fitted with a 5 tonne gantry crane and 12 metre wide sliding doors. 
“Engineering &amp; Logistics companies generally search hard for premises such as this as they are looking for buildings that can do the heavy lifting and high power supply as retrofitting is often expensive.
In a flurry of industrial deals settling from the start of the year, this is the fifth sale concluded to owner occupiers and with all properties having received multiple offers. 
The area is set to transform with proposed future mixed use developments of the old Forgacs Facility and Bulimba Army Barracks.
“We are still witnessing an enormous amount of cash in the market and conditions for owner occupiers are at an all-time high, but with the limited stock at present, exceptional capital growth for sellers is becoming more easily achievable
 
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Savills sell Morningside warehouse for $3.5 million

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The Singaporean developer and hospitality group Roxy-Pacific has sold an office building in Sydney’s CBD for $153 million.
In an aftermarket filing on Friday, Roxy-Pacific says the sale WAs subject to the findings of a due diligence exercise and the approval of both parties’ boards of directors.
Its 117 Clarence Street purchaser is an Australian-domiciled institutional investor whose name was not disclosed.
Roxy bought the 11-storey property at 117 Clarence Street from Altis Property Group in 2015 for US$81 million ($108.1 million) with the Tong Eng Group.
The building is 100% occupied with a net lettable area (NLA) of 12,517 sq m, and a weighted average leasehold expiry (WALE) by income of 2.6 years.
The impact of recent stock withdrawals for residential conversion had led to unprecedented demand for B Grade office space in the Sydney CBD, according to recent research from Savills Australia, who noted the subsequent spike in rents.
Savills noted Sydney’s Western Corridor was a precinct that is undergoing a "vast transformation" both commercially and culturally.
The precinct is fast becoming a regional centre for Asia Pacific’s financial services leaders as well as offering an array of small bars and fine dining options, it noted.
Positioned 120 metres from Wynyard Station and Bus Interchange, 117 Clarence occupies a large corner site of over approximately 1,231 sqm.
The building has undergone a series of capital upgrades including advancements in the lift rides and door mechanisms as well high quality end of trip facilities (bike racks, showers and change rooms).
The property was listed for sale through Simon Fenn, Ian Hetherington and Ben Azar of Savills Australia and Richard Butler, Josh Cullen and Steven Kearney of Inc RE.
About 60 per cent of leases within the building expire before 2020 and 41 per cent of income is underwritten by Government. The building has a 4.5-star NABERS Energy rating.
 
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Roxy-Pacific sells Clarence Street, Sydney office block for $153 million

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While technology continues to revolutionise supply chains outside the warehouse, it also has a huge potential to impact what happens inside the warehouse. According to Savills, we are already beginning to see robotics and connectivity changing processes and increasing efficiencies.
The International Federation of Robotics has stated that the supply of industrial robots will reach 400,000 units by the year end of 2018 and continue to grow by 15% per year. This means that the global supply of robots is increasing exponentially.
While the use of robotics in manufacturing processes is common across industry, mainstream use within the warehouse has not yet proliferated in Australia. Online retail giant Amazon has been identified as an operative leading the charge in this space, initially purchasing Kiva robotics in 2012. It has been estimated that there are now over 80,000 robots being used today in approximately 120 Amazon Fulfilment Centres across America.
Research from the DHL Innovation Centre foresees robots working in all aspects of the supply chain from national distribution facilities to mail sortation centres and local last mile delivery hubs. Key to their deployment will be decreases in investment as production efficiencies increase across the world.
The roll out of such technologies in Australia has been slow however Queensland can attest to a recent key example which is leading the way. 
In 2017, Pan Asian logistics specialist, LOGOS, developed an 18,762sq m purpose built high bay warehouse distribution and office facility for Asahi Beverages which included the provision of circa 9,000sq m of state of the art automated warehousing systems.
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/8/robot2.jpg" alt="">
LOGOS’ Purpose Built Distribution Centre for Asahi Beverages
Asahi Beverages, one of the leading beverage companies in Australia and New Zealand, selected the LOGOS Heathwood Logistics Estate in Brisbane to locate their Queensland Warehousing Operations. The Estate is positioned directly along the Logan Motorway, being the main arterial and distribution precinct for Queensland, linking up with the Ipswich Motorway, Centenary Highway and the Gateway Motorway. 
The high bay area of the Asahi facility utilises an Automated Storage &amp; Retrieval System (ASRS) and Storage and Retrieval Machines (SRMs) operating within racking aisles to carry out, put-away and retrieval tasks of pallets from the racking. The low bay area facilitates forklift movements, selective pallet racking, case picking, drive-in pallet racking, pallet conveyors and automated stretch wrappers.
LOGOS Joint Managing Director, Trent Iliffe said that they were pleased to partner with Asahi Beverages to deliver the state-of-the-art facility. 
“We’re seeing a larger number of our customers across Australia and Asia moving to automated warehouse solutions and the Asahi Beverages facility has set the benchmark for the quality of facilities we can deliver,” he said.
Savills State Director of <a href="http://www.savills.com.au/services-and-sectors/industrial.aspx" target="_blank">Industrial and Business Services</a> for Queensland, Callum Stenson, said that with the beginning of these technology advancements hitting the market, 10 year old warehousing could see much higher redundancy in a shorter period of time.
Increased racking automation will create a need for taller warehouse units as occupiers utilise the volumetric cube more efficiently.
“With these new facilities now exceeding heights of 36 meters, buildings which were constructed in the early part of this century that are topping out at 7 meters will struggle to adapt to the supply chain requirements of modern warehousing,” Mr Stenson said.
All of this is made possible by the increased use of wireless data making the connectivity of a range of new devices possible. We will soon refer to this notion as The Internet of Things, which will see 50 billion previously idle devices all connected to the internet by 2020.
The extra connectivity to Internet of Things is likely to increase order picking and inventory density in a warehouse whilst reducing utility costs such as lighting and air-conditioning. 
“Warehouses will need to evolve to allow for data and artificial intelligence to integrate with stock supply demands,” Mr Stenson said.
The impacts of technology combined with changing consumer habits will in turn create a need to accelerate the roll out of robotic warehousing in Australia. Ever changing consumer habits and differing business models coupled with legacy supply chains, technology and penetration of online retail means that there is no ‘one size fits all’ model.  
The evolution of warehousing will continue to be based around design and location requirements, with innovation being the major driving force behind business productivity and profitability.
Savills is a leading global real estate service provider offering the full spectrum of services from strategic advice to managing assets and projects and transacting deals. Callum Stenson is Savills State Director - QLD, <a href="http://www.savills.com.au/services-and-sectors/industrial.aspx" target="_blank">Industrial &amp; Business Services</a>. To learn more about Savills, visit <a href="http://www.savills.com.au" target="_blank">savills.com.au</a>.
 
 
 
 
 
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