Sam Khalil

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SPONSORED POST
Sam Khalil's property investment outlook investigates and dissects recent market changes that Australian property investors should be aware of.
In part one, Sam Khalil gave his thoughts on <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/investing/72358-sam-khalil-s-property-investment-outlook-part-one" target="_blank">Australian property investment in 2017</a>.  He looked at performance in the capital cities and identified regions that will continue to grow despite changing market forces. 
In part two, Sam investigates and dissects recent market changes that property investors should be aware of.
Stricter lending rules
There are far tighter lending guidelines than ever before. This has all been generated by ASIC, worried about high levels of risk in a red hot market.  It has trickled down to all the major lenders. CBA and Bankwest are refusing to refinance investors. While AMP will no longer offer new investor loans through their mortgage channel. Other lenders such as MyState have imposed a 12 basis point margin on all variable and fixed rates, for both investment and residential loans. Meanwhile APRA is bringing in a 10 percent speed limit for investors. There could be more restrictions on the horizon with APRA worried about the level of risk in the market.
Overall lenders are charging more for investment loans and then again for interest only. This will make people revaluate their lenders and question if they will purchase at all.
Foreigners locked out of the market
There has been a distinct clamping down on foreign investment over the last year. Westpac is not writing loans for non-residents, ANZ is no longer lending to non-residents and the CBA is following suit. Other banks have similar tight restrictions. The sum effect has been that foreign investors are walking away in droves, many unable to get funding. This in turn will have a flow on effect to the construction industry, impacting on the number of new builds. There’s also speculation that foreign investors will favour apartments over houses even more than they currently do because they need a lesser deposit.
Development slowing down
Developers have seen significant tightening in lending for projects. This has slowed down supply, which may be a stabilising measure to avoid any large property bubble bursting.  Banks have especially tightened down on lending to residential property developers with an oversupply of apartments and high-rise towers an especial concern. This has led to many developers to put projects on hold and others look to for alternate funding.
Shortage of land
There’s a desperate demand for new land supply in <a href="https://www.dpn.com.au/learn/market-updates/macarthur-the-sleeping-giant-of-sydney" target="_blank">Sydney’s fringe</a> as well as Wollongong and Newcastle. Developers are finding it extremely difficult to process land through local councils and then register the land. We must hope that the NSW government can fast track services to bring land to the market sooner so pricing doesn’t continue to increase dramatically due to lack of supply. This is the primary issue affecting housing affordability: land supply and how quickly it arrives to the market. Remember there’s always a lag between development and construction and the frantic nature of the market itself.
Apartment oversupply
There’s a real concern about apartment oversupply in the major capital cities, especially in Melbourne. The Commonwealth Bank estimates 140,000 new apartments will be built in the city from 2016 to 2018. This oversupply will ultimately lead to a drop in prices. Some experts are anticipating drastic drops of up to 20 percent in some suburbs by 2019.  So projected growth for apartments in many major cities has hit its peak and is estimated to correct or be sideways for next 5-8 years, with owners losing money and not getting capital growth. So there’s a clear message here: be very wary of apartment purchasing for the next few years. Research the area and project meticulously.
The global market
Well, it’s almost impossible not to talk about the political upheavals last year. From Brexit through to Trump it was a year of surprises. Trump’s avowal to increase spending around infrastructure and his distancing from the Asia trade pacts will certainly have an effect on Australia. His promise to pour money into defence and infrastructure will act as a fiscal stimulus. It’ll also mean lots of capital fleeing Australia and going into the USA. Potentially Australia will have to lift interest rates to compete and keep capital here. This in turn will effect market sentiment. Properties and projects that are vulnerable will be exposed awfully quickly.
You can read the original article <a href="https://www.dpn.com.au/learn/market-updates/sam-khalil%E2%80%99s-property-investment-outlook-part-two-winter-2017" target="_blank">here</a>.
For more information from <a href="https://www.dpn.com.au/" target="_blank">DPN</a>.
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Sam Khalil’s property investment outlook - part two

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SPONSORED POST
The Australian property market is shifting and changing thanks to a multitude of forces. DPN's Managing Director, Sam Khalil shares his thoughts on the current market and reveals property investment opportunities in the Wollongong, Newcastle and Brisbane areas.
The last five years have seen a phenomenal surge in the demand for property. It’s been a perfect storm of consistently low interest rates; an endless, thirsty demand for stock and foreign investment at record high levels. This in turn pushed up construction and new builds and kept up supply.
However, like all good things it had to come to an end. This is not to say the market is in trouble by any means. More that it’s no longer like 2012 or 2013 where property investment was like shooting fish in a barrel. Almost anyone with a little knowledge and a lot of luck could do well in the prosperous conditions.
But things have changed in <a href="https://www.dpn.com.au/learn/market-updates/sam-khalil%E2%80%99s-property-outlook-for-summer-2016" target="_blank">the last 12 months</a> and so 2017 and beyond will still present golden opportunities, but only for the canny and well researched investor.
How property investment is changing in the capital cities
2016 saw Melbourne and Sydney continue to rise significantly compared to other Australian cities. Despite gloom and doom predictions - remember there were lots of experts claiming Melbourne would slump in 2016 and that Sydney would stagnate - both cities outperformed expectations. In fact, dwelling prices rose 15.5 percent in Sydney whilst Melbourne had a rise of 13.7 percent for the year.
Perth had experienced seven quarters of negative growth and is in major recovery mode after its boom and bust. However, it may well have reached the bottom and signs are that it’s slowly starting to ascend. In the last 3 months there has been a small increase in property prices for the first time in a long time. It’s still a long way back, but investors who can’t afford the big capital cities may start looking in this direction.
Brisbane started a gentle ascent and should continue to find value in housing and land appreciation, whilst inner city apartments may experience price correction as I detail in part two.
So how will 2017/2018 play out? I’m confident we’ll see rises in Sydney and Melbourne as demand and sentiment still remain positive. Brisbane investment property will continue to follow closely behind. The lending measures that may impact the market and sentiment are the move in interest rates from lenders separate to the Reserve Bank.
Look to the regions
Land in <a href="https://www.dpn.com.au/learn/market-updates/macarthur-the-sleeping-giant-of-sydney" target="_blank">South Western Sydney</a>, Wollongong and Newcastle remains very tight with strong local and investment demand helping sustain and increase prices of land.  These areas will only continue to grow in 2017. It’s not just investors but we’re seeing many Sydney “refugees” – that is younger owner-occupiers - who are moving to these areas in search of houses they can afford. Because all three areas are within coo-ee of Sydney and they all have their own strong infrastructure and local economy they are highly desirable and will continue to rise.
It’s worth noting that Brisbane is also showing signs of upward movement in land values in the metro area. And not just Brisbane itself, but even further out there’s some very strong opportunities as we recently noted in the case of <a href="https://www.dpn.com.au/learn/market-updates/why-springfield-brisbane-is-a-hot-investment" target="_blank">Springfield</a>.
Overall forecast
So what does all this tell us? Sam Khalil’s outlook is positive, there are a myriad of opportunities in the market. Which, as we know, are really <a href="https://www.dpn.com.au/learn/how-to-guides/what-is-a-property-market" target="_blank">many different markets</a>.
The caveat being that one has to be more selective as market forces could change due to macro economic factors and policy changes by the regulators as well as the oversupply of apartments. This apartment oversupply poses the greatest risk for investors. It’s a cautionary reminder of not buying through emotion. Or buying the wrong product at the wrong time.
There are some excellent prospects for property investment in the right areas that may not fit investors’ usual comfort zones. 2017/2018 will definitely be about hunting in different fields, certainly not in the usual areas that investors have been doing.
So there won’t be any quick rewards from backing the same winners of the past five years. The investors that will do well in the next 12 months will be those who put in the solid research and are prepared to look in other areas off their normal radar. As always: if you put in the work, the research and don’t automatically follow the herd, you can reap great rewards.
In part two, Sam Khalil investigates and dissects recent market changes that <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/investing/72360-sam-khalil-s-property-investment-outlook-part-two-winter-2017" target="_blank">property investors should be aware of</a>.  He covers lending policy, slowing development and challenges with land and apartment supply.
You can read the original article <a href="https://www.dpn.com.au/learn/market-updates/sam-khalil%E2%80%99s-property-investment-outlook-part-one-winter-2017" target="_blank">here</a>.
For more information from <a href="https://www.dpn.com.au/" target="_blank">DPN</a>.
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Sam Khalil

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