Renewable energy

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GUEST OBSERVER
Renewable energy is driving profound changes in cities.
It’s happening much more quickly than was expected even five years ago. Responding to climate change, networks of decision-makers, such as the C40 collective of major cities, have begun adopting strategies to promote the uptake of renewable energy. Yet land use planning has seemingly begun to lag behind.
As an example, few, if any, planning codes in Australia prevent overshadowing of rooftop solar systems (photovoltaic and hot water). Instead, disputes are being decided in the courts.
Effective guidance on the retrofitting and redesign of built environment energy systems must occur across scales, from rooftops to wider electricity grids. We need reliable institutional and policy guidelines to improve investment certainty and limit negative outcomes.
So what is the role of planning? What challenges and actions must planners consider for the renewable energy transition to be effective?
Renewable are proliferating
Historically, cities have been built on fossil fuels. These power buildings, lighting, transport, air conditioning, water supply systems, sewage treatment and more.
Technological change and concerns about climate change threats, energy security, air pollution reduction and fossil fuel power costs have recently driven huge advancements in renewable energy options for cities. As renewables rapidly gain market traction, the costs are falling dramatically relative to fossil fuel options.
Many different types of renewable energy have the potential to radically transform built environments. These include solar (both photovoltaic and molten salt), wind, tidal, biogas, biofuel, pumped hydro and potentially even nuclear fusion – though the latter may still be some time away.
At present, this technological growth appears to be outpacing land-use planning systems, and many planners seem to be fighting a rear-guard action.
What role can planners play?
Traditionally, planners have assessed the acceptability, or otherwise, of different types of development. Land uses that were deemed incompatible were separated into different zones.
Infrastructural and technological provisions associated with developments are usually strategically planned in advance. Site-specific issues are then assessed through development approval processes.
There are, however, still relatively few land use planning policies and guidelines for engaging effectively with renewable energy. This is a global problem, though some jurisdictions are ahead of others.
A front-runner is the UK, where the Department for Communities and Local Government issued planning practice guidance for renewable and low-carbon energy in 2013. This was a welcome early response. And perhaps surprising, given the comparative lack of sunlight in the UK.
Conversely, Ireland still lacks a strategic plan for solar farm development. This seems remiss given Ireland has an almost identical planning system and roughly the same amount of sunlight as the UK.
In sunnier Australia, the signs are that things are beginning to change. For example, the New South Wales government recently issued guidelines on the approval of solar and wind farms. Queensland has a wind farm state code and guidelines. The City of Melbourne now provides planning guidance for solar energy.
California is forging ahead with solar leasing and is experimenting with mandatory solar for new buildings. The state is also making strides in wind energy.
How should planning systems adapt?
We urgently need more renewable-friendly planning systems to capture its potential benefits and avoid overshooting the 2°C target for global warming. This will mean finding ways to “fast-track” energy generation deemed to be low risk with manageable impacts.
As well as developing practical guidance, planners need to ask some key questions. Are these technologies safe? Might they disrupt other land uses? Does large-scale uptake potentially have unintended consequences?
An easy win for planners is to devise codes and planning scheme provisions to protect rooftop solar installations from overshadowing. Rooftop solar is becoming an integral part of the energy mix in many areas, with surplus production often feeding back into the grid.
A failure of planning to manage a simple issue like overshadowing will result in a loss of potential electricity production, with negative implications for householders and grids.
Medium-scale commercial solar PV farms, providing 1-10MW generating capacity, are likely soon to be a common feature of many suburbs and communities. However, these facilities can present challenges when placed in urban areas. Again, clear planning guidance is needed.
The planning implications of these solar PV farms are only beginning to be understood. The issues include, but are not limited to, site selection, (re)zoning, stakeholder engagement, visual impact minimisation and mediating social, economic and/or ecological constraints.
Even as planners begin to engage with the issues of current renewable technologies, newer technologies are quickly encroaching. This adds to the urgency of the planning challenges; constant reappraisal is needed.
Where to next?
Soon we will likely have to better consider emerging technologies such as solar windows, integrated solar roofs, backyard biogas generators and even algae biofuel farming.
For example, could using backyard waste-to-biogas systems create issues with hygiene and infectious disease? What about maintenance? Will microgrids, which can help transitions to a grid with significant volumes of renewable energy, be able to handle demand?
We’ll need effective land use planning to answer these questions and many more. In times of intense transformation, planners will have to provide clear guidance. They must not let themselves fall behind the pace of urban energy transitions.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tony-matthews-234160" target="_blank">Tony Matthews </a>is Lecturer in Urban &amp; Environmental Planning, Griffith University.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jason-byrne-6066" target="_blank">Jason Byrne </a>is Associate Professor of Environmental Planning, Griffith University.
Both are authors for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Pace of renewable energy shift leaves city planners struggling to keep up

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GUEST OBSERVER
The recent battles over the budget of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), and before that over the size of the Renewable Energy Target, are the latest skirmishes in a long-running war over support for technologies that harvest Australia’s abundant wind and solar resources.
Perhaps surprisingly, the conflict even predates the popular awareness of climate change, which is generally dated to 1988.
UNSW Australia’s Mark Diesendorf has described how in early 1983 he and his colleagues had identified an ideal site in northern Tasmania for a wind farm. They presented their proposal to Labor’s newly appointed resources minister, Peter Walsh.
"We submitted a proposal that the federal government fund a demonstration wind farm and assist in establishing a local wind generator manufacturing industry in the region, which was suffering from high unemployment. The next day, Senator Walsh announced that a northwest Tasmanian wind energy project could be a part of a development package, if the Commonwealth was successful in the High Court challenge to the construction of the Gordon-below-Franklin dam."
The Commonwealth won its High Court battle, but the wind industry did not get its windfall. As Diesendorf recalls:
"The federal government did not implement our proposal. It was soon obvious that the coal lobby, which was already very strong in the Department of Resources, had succeeded in turning the minister against wind power."
At the same time, CSIRO, a world leader in several areas of renewables, closed down all of its renewable energy research. In Diesendorf’s view this was brought on by powerful coal interests within CSIRO. In the absence of deathbed confessions by those who made the decisions, Diesendorf’s suspicions can’t be proved correct, but renewables did indeed disappear from CSIRO’s research agenda and annual reports from that time.
Once climate change hit the headlines, things changed – a little. In 1990 the Hawke government established the Energy Research and Development Corporation (ERDC) and launched a National Energy Efficiency Program. Meanwhile, research commissioned by the Victorian government found that renewable energy, paired with energy-efficiency measures, could save A$3.14 billion a year by 2005, create almost 14,000 jobs, boost economic productivity by A$800 million a year, and cut greenhouse emissions into the bargain.
But privatisation took hold in Victoria, and the Keating government in Canberra seemed indifferent at best. In 1994, green groups including the Australian Conservation Foundation called for a carbon levy to provide funds for renewable energy. Their request was ignored.
<h2>Renewables back on target</h2>
In 1996 the new Howard government disbanded Bob Hawke’s ERDC and energy efficiency program. In late 1997, in the run-up to the Kyoto climate summit, John Howard announced a new Renewable Energy Target (RET).
Greens leader Bob Brown was underwhelmed. He pointed out that the scheme’s A$65 million over five years was less than the A$75 million that had been axed the year before, while the target of an extra 2 percent of electricity from renewables (making a total of 11 percent including existing large-scale hydro electricity generation) fell short of the ambition shown by other nations. Britain, for instance, was aiming for 20 percent by 2010.
The RET finally came into place in 2001, after the fossil fuel lobby succeeded in getting it watered down, and was subjected to constant reviews.
Infamously, at a secret meeting whose minutes were leaked, the then energy minister, Ian MacFarlane, lamented to the chief executives of companies like BHP and Rio that the RET was working too well – renewables were growing too fast.
In the run-up to the 2004 Energy White Paper, the renewables industry had hired well-connected lobby firm Crosby Textor (yes, Crosby as in Lynton Crosby) in a bid to get the RET raised to as much as 10 percent.
According to Age journalist Richard Baker, a Liberal backbencher warned the renewables advocates that “you guys are stuffed". And so it came to pass – the white paper spruiked carbon capture and storage, not renewables.
In the white paper’s aftermath, CSIRO boss Geoff Garrett announced that the organisation would be reducing its renewables research and instead focusing on “clean coal” technologies such as coal gasification and carbon capture and storage.
Months later, a draft copy of an August 2005 CSIRO report describing solar thermal technology as “the only renewable technology that can make deep cuts in greenhouse emissions” was leaked to The Canberra Times. Before the leak, sources claimed the report had been “passed around like a political hot potato” with no date set for its release. It was eventually released to the public later that year.
<h2>Bloody public battles</h2>
Since 2007 the battles have been more public and even bloodier. An attempt to harmonise (and perhaps increase) different state and federal targets (all with different baselines, target years and amounts) was a dispiriting process. This was due in part, it seems, to federal bureaucratic intransigence and arrogance.
The major changes have been an increase in the renewables target, split into large-scale (wind farms, solar farms and the like) and small-scale (mostly rooftop solar). That increased target was of course subjected to significant watering down by the Abbott government.
Meanwhile, the two agencies that were set up to support renewable energy have also come under attack. The Greens, whose support was a life-and-death issue for the Gillard government, had managed to insist on the creation of ARENA and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.
Between them, these two organisations were designed to ensure funding both for basic research and development and for commercialisation of the resulting technologies, thereby smoothing the path for renewables to enter the electricity sector.
The attacks on these organisations have helped create investor uncertainty in renewables. Efforts to close them down ultimately failed, so the Abbott government switched to changing their terms of reference. The Turnbull government has continued this, along with salami-slicing ARENA’s budget.
This investment uncertainty, deliberately created, is a kind of “divestment campaign” against renewables. It can also be seen as a way of provoking an “investment strike”.
Whereas the mining industry threatened to take its investment dollars elsewhere while fighting Kevin Rudd’s proposed Resources Super-profits Tax in 2010, in this case, the supporters of the status quo energy system are hoping to dissuade external investors from coming to Australia. Thus do incumbents defend their patch.
Australia is famously the “lucky country”. But of course, Donald Horne meant it ironically, believing that the country was richly endowed with resources but “run mainly by second-rate people who share its luck”.
Given what we know of the trajectory and probable impacts of climate change, nobody, surely, will be able to be claim surprise as the future arrives.
Marc Hudson is PhD candidate, Sustainable Consumption Institute, University of Manchester and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/marc-hudson-180939" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Attacks on renewable energy policy are older than the climate issue itself

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As many developers commit to creating sustainable developments, environmentally-conscious property buyers are spoilt for choice.

Finding green and energy-efficient housing not only reduces your carbon footprint but also helps you lower your bills.

Here are five new developments across Australia implementing sustainable water and energy-efficient features into their buildings and providing residents with facilities to alleviate their car dependency.

1. <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/daracombe-7-daracombe-avenue-kew">Daracombe</a> 
7 Daracombe Avenue, Kew VIC 3101

<a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/daracombe-7-daracombe-avenue-kew-3fa88421280dad9688bb7c73c7bcf93e.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="326" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/daracombe-7-daracombe-avenue-kew-3fa88421280dad9688bb7c73c7bcf93e.jpg?itok=OwKBT_Lt" width="580"></a> <a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/render4c.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="312" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/render4c.jpg?itok=nB38pCs6" width="580"></a>

Situated in Melbourne’s inner-East, Daracombe offers residents the opportunity to save 30 per cent on their utility bills thanks to their sustainability features.

Designed by <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/architects/conrad-architects">Conrad Architects</a>, these apartments include sustainable features such as:

•      LED lighting 
•      Full-height double glazed windows 
•      Rain water harvesting 
•      Cross-flow ventilation 
•      Six-star energy rated appliances

The residence offers 18 residences in two and three-bedroom configurations, featuring fringed greenery, natural tavertine stone and oak floors. Two-bedroom, two-bathroom apartments start from $975,000.

2. <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-townhouses/salt-townhomes-85-grossmans-road-torquay?last_source_news_article_id=84385&amp;ref=news_related_project">Salt Townhomes</a> 
85 Grossmans Road, Torquay VIC 3228

<a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/salt-townhomes-85-grossmans-road-torquay-c7f02c52e41ff3514e514ef866e093e3_0.jpeg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="387" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/salt-townhomes-85-grossmans-road-torquay-c7f02c52e41ff3514e514ef866e093e3_0.jpeg?itok=GeebJHqo" width="580"></a>

Salt Townhomes offers residents sustainable living amongst the Surf Coast lifestyle with 50 three and four-bedroom townhouses available within the project. Every home at Salt enjoys a private rear garden and landscaped tree-lined streets. 

“With an average 7.5 star energy rated design that boasts natural materials, double glazing and solar panels, these Townhomes are proving to be a very popular choice for those looking to enjoy the Surf Coast lifestyle", said Salt's sales consultant Sam Parsons. 

These apartments offer sustainable features such as: 

•      Natural materials 
•      Rear garden 
•      Double glazed windows 
•      Solar PV panels

3. <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/folia-59-stables-circuit-doncaster?last_source_news_article_id=84385&amp;ref=news_related_project">Tullamore by Mirvac</a> 
47 Doncaster Road, Doncaster VIC 3108

<a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/folia-59-stables-circuit-doncaster-f5461f57f0abf5e886a22b59c0d72e62_0.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="326" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/folia-59-stables-circuit-doncaster-f5461f57f0abf5e886a22b59c0d72e62_0.jpg?itok=h5jac9ON" width="580"></a>

Located on <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/659-669-doncaster-road-doncaster">Doncaster Road</a>, Tullamore offers residents sustainable living from an entry price point of $400,000 at their <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/folia-apartments-of-tullamore-a-generation-of-modern-living">Folia apartments</a> development. <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/folia-59-stables-circuit-doncaster?source_news_article_id=41378&amp;ref=news_body_link">Folia</a> offers 102 one, two and three-bedroom configurations. 

The development has achieved a six-leaf EnviroDevelopment accreditation, the highest available in Australia. Its sustainable features include: 

•      A 70kWh solar panel array 
•      20 per cent of open land remains green 
•      Integrated water management plan 
•      Renewable energy and battery storage 
•      Option to include a Tesla Powerwall II battery

4. <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/edsquare-cnr-soliders-pde-and-campbelltown-road-edmondson-park?last_source_news_article_id=84385&amp;ref=news_related_project">Ed.Square</a> 
Cnr Soliders Pde and Campbelltown Road, Edmondson Park NSW 2174

<a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/e01_ed_sq_stage_3_da_mews_copy.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="363" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/e01_ed_sq_stage_3_da_mews_copy.jpg?itok=5zGZYcV4" width="580"></a>

Located in Sydney’s south-west suburb of Edmonson Park, Ed.Square is Fraser Property’s new net zero energy demand home project which Is set to produce more energy than they consume.

The balanced energy homes went on sale last month and will save residents up to 43 per cent of their energy costs. Its sustainable features include:

•      LED lighting 
•      Roof insulation 
•      Electric boosted solar hot water 
•      Low-e glazed windows 
•      Ground source heat pump space conditioning 
•      4kW of solar PV 
•      No gas

Ed.Square is located within convenient access to an array of shopping, dining and entertainment facilities, with entry-prices for the development as low as $490,000 for a one-bedroom residence.

5. <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/249qp-249-queens-parade-fitzroy-north?last_source_news_article_id=84385&amp;ref=news_related_project">249QP</a> 
249 Queens Parade, Fitzroy North VIC 3068

<a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/10-20-river-boulevard-richmond-41b5e99cf2583d5b6846317ada208296.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="451" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/10-20-river-boulevard-richmond-41b5e99cf2583d5b6846317ada208296.jpg?itok=slJHyAfc" width="580"></a>

Delivered by Salta Properties, 249QP is a clean and green sustainable development in Victoria’s Fitzroy North. Offering 92 one, two and three-bedroom configurations, 249QP is thoughtfully designed and environmentally-focused.

Environmentally sustainable practices such as solar panels power the building and materials are sourced from environmentally responsible producers. Its other sustainable features include:

•      90% of demolition and construction waste recycled 
•      Ground floor bike workshop 
•      Solar panels 
•      Water-efficient fixtures, fittings and equipment 
•      Rainwater collection 
•      Low VOC paints, carpets and sealants

Prices for apartments in the development begin from $420,000 for a one-bedroom, one-bathroom configuration and from $1.1 million for a three-bedroom, two-bathroom residence. 
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Here are five new developments across Australia implementing sustainable water and energy-efficient features into their buildings

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5 new sustainable developments for the environmentally-conscious buyer 2020

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Amid the urgent need to slow climate change by cutting greenhouse gas emissions, energy efficiency makes sense. But as Australia’s chief scientist Alan Finkel last week warned, we’re not “anywhere close to having that nailed”.
Energy efficiency means using less energy to achieve the same outcomes. It’s the <a href="http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/verve/_resources/TCI_BoostingAustraliasEnergyProductivity_July2013.pdf" target="_blank">cheapest way</a> to cut greenhouse gas emissions and achieve our climate goals. Improving energy efficiency is also vital to achieving so-called “energy productivity” – getting more economic output, using the same or less energy.
But Australia’s <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-productivity-and-energy-efficiency/national-energy-productivity-plan" target="_blank">national energy productivity plan</a>, agreed by the nation’s energy ministers in 2015, has gone nowhere.
It set a goal of a 40% improvement in energy productivity by 2030. But my analysis, based on the most recent official data, shows that in the three years to 2017-18, energy productivity increased by a mere 1.1%.
Clearly, there is much work to do. So let’s take a look at the problem and the potential solutions.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343107/original/file-20200622-75505-1j11r63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">Energy efficiency reduces power bills for consumers. Julian Smith/AAP
<h2>Energy efficiency: a low-hanging fruit</h2>
Better energy efficiency lowers electricity bills, makes businesses more competitive and helps manage energy demand. Of course, it also means less greenhouse gas emissions, because fewer fossil fuels are burnt for energy.
Business, unions and green groups recognise the benefits. Last month they joined forces to <a href="https://www.bca.com.au/building_a_stronger_and_cleaner_post_pandemic_australia" target="_blank">call for</a> a sustainable COVID-19 economic recovery, with energy efficiency at the core, saying:
In Australia, a major drive to improve the energy efficiency of buildings and industry could deliver over 120,000 job-years of employment […] Useful upgrades could be made across Australia’s private and public housing; commercial, community and government buildings; and industrial facilities.
The group said improvements could include:
<ul>
<li>more efficient and controllable appliances and equipment, especially for heating and cooling</li>
<li>improved shading and thermal envelopes (improving the way a building’s walls, ceiling and floors prevent heat transfer)</li>
<li>smart meters to measure energy use</li>
<li>distributed energy generation and storage, such as wind and solar backed by batteries</li>
<li>fuel switching (replacing inefficient fuels with cleaner and economical alternatives)</li>
<li>equipment, training and advice for better energy management.</li>
</ul>
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has suggested <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/iea-offers-world-governments-a-sustainable-recovery-plan-to-boost-economic-growth-create-millions-of-jobs-and-put-emissions-into-structural-decline" target="_blank">other measures</a> for industry and manufacturing, such as:
<ul>
<li>installing more efficient electric motors</li>
<li>switching from gas to electric heat pumps</li>
<li>more waste and material recycling.</li>
</ul>
And in transport, the IEA suggests incentives to get older, less efficient cars off the roads and encourage the uptake of electric vehicles.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343110/original/file-20200622-75483-cm4unz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">Residential buildings offer big opportunities for energy efficiency improvements. Brendan Esposito/AAP
<h2>Governments’ sleight of hand</h2>
In 2018 <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-policies-of-iea-countries-australia-2018-review" target="_blank">the IEA observed</a>:
<blockquote>
the power sector will be at the heart of Australia’s energy system transformation […] International best practice suggests that both energy efficiency and renewable energy are key drivers of the energy transition.
</blockquote>
Since then, renewable energy’s share of the electricity mix has increased. But energy productivity has stalled.
To understand how, we must define a few key terms.
Primary energy refers to energy extracted from the environment, such as coal, crude oil, and electrical energy collected by a wind turbine or solar panel.
Final energy is the energy supplied to a consumer, such as electricity delivered to homes or fuel pumped at a petrol station.
A lot of energy is lost in the process of turning extracted primary fuels into ready-to-use fuels for consumers. For example at coal-fired power stations, on average, <a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2013/04/f0/HS_Coal_Studyguide_draft1.pdf" target="_blank">one-third of the energy </a>supplied by burning coal is converted to electricity. The remainder is lost as waste heat.
Until 2015, Australia and most other countries used final energy as a measure of how rapidly energy efficiency was improving. But the national productivity plan instead set goals around primary energy productivity – aiming to increase it by 40% between 2015 and 2030.
This has made it possible for governments to hide how badly Australia is travelling on improving energy efficiency. I analysed <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id:%22library/prspub/17I30%22" target="_blank">national accounts</a> figures and <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">energy statistics</a>, to produce the below table. It reveals the governments’ sleight of hand.
Over the three years from 2014-15 to 2017-18, final energy productivity increased by only 1.1%, whereas primary energy productivity increased by 3.5%.
The reduced primary energy consumption is mostly due to a large increase in wind and solar generation. The efficiency of energy used by final consumers has scarcely changed.
<h2>A sustainable future</h2>
The lack of progress on energy productivity is not surprising, given governments have shown very little interest in the issue.
As Finkel noted in his address, Australia’s energy productivity plan is absent from the list of national climate and energy policies. The plan’s 2019 annual report has not been released. And those released since 2015 have not monitored progress in energy productivity.
What’s more, the plan makes no mention of previous similar agreements, in <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/bd/bd0910/10bd152" target="_blank">2004</a> and <a href="https://www.energyrating.gov.au/document/report-national-strategy-energy-efficiency" target="_blank">2009</a>, to accelerate energy efficiency with regulation and financial incentives. Since 2013, almost all Commonwealth programs supporting those agreements have been de-funded or <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r5232" target="_blank">abolished</a>, and many state programs have also been cut back.
The IEA’s <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/iea-offers-world-governments-a-sustainable-recovery-plan-to-boost-economic-growth-create-millions-of-jobs-and-put-emissions-into-structural-decline" target="_blank">sustainable recovery plan</a>, released last week, outlined what a sustainable global economic recovery might look like. In particular, it said better energy efficiency and switching to more efficient electric technologies will deliver triple benefits: increased employment, a more productive economy and lower greenhouse gas emissions.
In this carbon-constrained world, relatively easy and cheap opportunities such as energy efficiency must be seized. And as Australia spends to get its post-pandemic economy back on track, now is the time to act.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123176/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hugh-saddler-12123" target="_blank">Hugh Saddler</a>, Honorary Associate Professor, Centre for Climate Economics and Policy, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877" target="_blank">Australian National University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-failed-miserably-on-energy-efficiency-and-government-figures-hide-the-truth-123176" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Australia has failed miserably on energy efficiency – and government figures hide the truth

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Dexus has struck an agreement with Red Energy to supply their NSW building portfolio with renewable energy.
It claims it is Australia’s first supply-linked renewable Energy Supply Agreements (“ESA”).
Dexus, Australia’s largest office landlord, and Red Energy, which is 100% owned by Snowy Hydro, have signed a Memorandum of Understanding for a seven-year renewable contract, to commence from January 2020. 
Dexus will purchase renewable energy off-site to power the base building services of more than 40 buildings. 
This will be achieved through the procurement of renewable energy generation and presents a new lever for Dexus and the property industry to achieve net zero emissions. 
Dexus’ strategy aims to eliminate emissions from its portfolio and create value for Dexus’s customers and investors.
“This is a first for an Australian real estate investment trust and supports our ambition to achieve net zero emissions by 2030,” said David Yates, Executive General Manager for Sustainability at Dexus. 
“We have worked collaboratively with Red Energy to establish a new energy supply model which will deliver renewable energy sourced off-site. Importantly it provides long-term price certainty to insulate our customers from electricity market volatility, while driving down energy costs and supporting our collective carbon reduction goals.
“The ESA satisfies the demand from customers and investors for more reliable, environmentally responsible energy. 
“Over seven years, we expect to source more than 300 gigawatt hours (GWh) of renewable energy via this ESA, which is equivalent to the energy consumed by 38,000 households for a year.”
Paul Wall, Head of Group Sustainability and Energy at Dexus, said: “This agreement allows us to hedge a portion of our power price, providing a buffer against energy market uncertainty. The deal has been struck at below current market rates and leverages the large-scale generation certificates subsidies, resulting in a fixed price for 50% of our energy load over the next seven years. 
“This means we can pass the savings directly to our customers, while operating our buildings using a responsible, emission-free source of energy. 
“This new deal is expected to reduce the retail energy rate which we pass onto our customers through outgoings by more than 10% compared to existing contracted rates.” 
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Dexus signs renewable energy supply agreement 

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GUEST OBSERVATION
In Australia, renewable energy is growing at a per capita rate ten times faster than the world average. Between 2018 and 2020, Australia will install more than 16 gigawatts of wind and solar, an average rate of 220 watts per person per year.
This is nearly three times faster than the next fastest country, Germany. Australia is demonstrating to the world how rapidly an industrialised country with a fossil-fuel-dominated electricity system can transition towards low-carbon, renewable power generation.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292952/original/file-20190918-187974-8j0coj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292952/original/file-20190918-187974-8j0coj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Renewable energy capacity installations per capita. International capacity data for 2018 from the International Renewable Energy Agency. Australian data from the Clean Energy Regulator., Author provided
When the <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/About/Pages/News%20and%20updates/NewsItem.aspx?ListId=19b4efbb-6f5d-4637-94c4-121c1f96fcfe&amp;ItemId=683" target="_blank">Clean Energy Regulator accredited</a> Tasmania’s 148.5 megawatt (MW) Cattle Hill Wind Farm in August, Australia met its <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/Pages/News%20and%20updates/NewsItem.aspx?ListId=19b4efbb-6f5d-4637-94c4-121c1f96fcfe&amp;ItemId=683" target="_blank">Renewable Energy Target</a> well ahead of schedule.
We have <a href="https://energy.anu.edu.au/files/Renewable%20energy%20target%20report%20September%202019_1_0.pdf" target="_blank">analysed</a> data from the regulator which tracks large- and small-scale renewable energy generation (including credible future projects), and found the record-high installation rates of 2018 will continue through 2019 and 2020.
<h2>Record renewable energy installation rates</h2>
While <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-met-its-renewable-energy-target-but-dont-pop-the-champagne-122939" target="_blank">other analyses</a> have pointed out that investment dollars in renewable energy fell in 2019, actual generation capacity has risen. Reductions in building costs may be contributing, as less investment will buy you the more capacity.
Last was a record year for renewable energy installations, with 5.1 gigawatts (GW) accredited in 2018, far exceeding the previous record of 2.2GW in 2017.
The increase was driven by the dramatic rise of large-scale solar farms, which comprised half of the new-build capacity accredited in 2018. There was a tenfold increase in solar farm construction from 2017.
We have projected the remaining builds for 2019 and those for 2020, based on data from the Clean Energy Regulator for public firm announcements for projects.
A project is considered firm if it has a power purchase agreement (PPA, a contract to sell the energy generated), has reached financial close, or is under construction. We assume six months for financial close and start of construction after a long-term supply contract is signed, and 12 or 18 months for solar farm or wind farm construction, respectively.
This year is on track to be another record year, with 6.5GW projected to be complete by the end of 2019.
The increase is largely attributable to a significant increase in the number of wind farms approaching completion. Rooftop solar has also increased, with current installation rates putting Australia on track for 1.9GW in 2019, also a new record.
This is attributed to the continued cost reductions in rooftop solar, with less than A$1,000 per kilowatt now considered routine and payback periods of the order of two to seven years.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292954/original/file-20190918-187985-r9h3yc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292954/original/file-20190918-187985-r9h3yc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Current (solid) and forecast (hashed) installations of renewable electricity capacity in Australia. Author provided
Looking ahead to 2020, almost 6GW of large-scale projects are expected to be completed, comprising 2.5GW of solar farms and 3.5GW of wind. Around the end of 2020, this additional generation would deliver the old Renewable Energy Target of 41,000 gigawatt hours (GWh) per annum. That target was legislated in 2009 by the Rudd Labor government but <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook45p/RenewableEnergy" target="_blank">reduced to 33,000GWh</a> by the Abbott Coalition government in 2015.
<h2>Maintaining the pipeline</h2>
There are strong prospects for continued high installation rates of renewables. Currently available renewable energy energy contracts are routinely offering <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/snowy-says-cost-of-firm-wind-and-solar-significantly-below-current-base-load-prices-76846/">less than A$50 per MWh</a>. Long-term contracts for future energy supply have an average price of more than A$58 per MWh. This is a very reasonable profit margin, suggesting a <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/products/energy-derivatives/australian-electricity.htm">strong economic case</a> for continued installations. Wind and solar prices are likely to decline further throughout the 2020s.
State governments programs are also supporting renewable electricity growth. The ACT has completed contracts for 100% renewable electricity. Victoria and Queensland both have renewable energy targets of 50% renewable electricity by 2030. South Australia is expecting to reach 100% by 2025.
The main impediment to continued renewables growth is transmission. Transmission constraints have resulted in bottlenecks in moving electricity from some wind and solar farms to cities.
Tasmania’s strong wind resource requires a new connection to the mainland to unlock more projects. The limitations of current planning frameworks for this transition were recognised in Chief Scientist Alan Finkel’s review of the National Electricity Market, with strong recommendations to overcome these problems and, in particular, to <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/independent-review-future-security-national-electricity-market-blueprint-future" target="_blank">strengthen the role of the Australian Energy Market Operator</a>.
Now we need state and federal governments to unlock or directly support transmission expansion. For example, the <a href="https://www.dnrme.qld.gov.au/energy/initiatives/poweringqueensland#targetText=The%20Powering%20Queensland%20Plan%20sets,and%20secure%%2020supply%20of%20electricity" target="_blank">Queensland government</a> has committed to supporting new transmission to unlock solar and wind projects in the far north, including the Genex/Kidston 250MW pumped hydro storage system. The New South Wales government will expedite planning approval for an <a href="https://www.transgrid.com.au/news-views/news/2019/Pages/Project-EnergyConnect-deemed-critical-infrastructure-in-NSW.aspx">interconnector</a> between that state and South Australia, defining it as “critical infrastructure”.
These investments are key to Australia maintaining its renewable energy leadership into the next decade.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123694/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/matthew-stocks-335116" target="_blank">Matthew Stocks</a>, Research Fellow, ANU College of Engineering and Computer Science, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877" target="_blank">Australian National University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-blakers-3328">Andrew Blakers</a>, Professor of Engineering, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877" target="_blank">Australian National University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ken-baldwin-11848" target="_blank">Ken Baldwin</a>, Director, Energy Change Institute, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877" target="_blank">Australian National University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-the-runaway-global-leader-in-building-new-renewable-energy-123694" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Australia is the runaway global leader in building new renewable energy

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GUEST OBSERVATION
In the absence of federal policy, states are pursing their own renewable targets.
Australia’s primary federal renewable energy target – to have <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/government/renewable-energy-target-scheme" target="_blank">33 terawatts of renewable energy by 2020</a> – has essentially been achieved. There is much uncertainty as to what is next.
In the absence of a new national target, the states have been leading the way and <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/resources/project-tracker" target="_blank">driving renewable energy</a> in Australia. Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland between them have invested some A$20 billion into building 11,400 megawatts of generation capacity.
While the states have worked admirably to advance renewable energy – and federal energy policy has long been politically toxic – there is a clear cost to pursuing many fragmented policies instead of a unified vision.
Our research, modelling the effect of state versus national renewable energy targets in the National Energy Market system found there was little difference in the overall cost, but that states without strong renewable targets tended to miss out on investment.
We need national thinking
<a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/9a3734e82574546679510bdc99d57847.pdf" target="_blank">Most jurisdictions</a> have net zero emissions targets by 2050. States also have ambitious but achievable shorter-term renewable energy targets and programs.
There are plenty of arguments for states pursuing their own renewable energy targets, not least because they can fill the policy vacuum left at the national level.
States are responding to the immediate need to replace retiring power stations and can explore innovation with greater ambition. It makes perfect sense for states to compete to attract jobs and investment.
But Australia’s federal government has a <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement" target="_blank">domestic and international obligation</a> to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels. National policies are more efficient, can harness better resources across our diverse geography and maximise returns for the whole system.
What’s more – as many column inches have pointed out – strong federal policy improves investment certainty and reliability, lowering the cost of inevitable infrastructure upgrades. And those upgrades can be better integrated into our existing national electricity system if the building (and money) doesn’t stop at internal borders.
To provide some insight and help move the debate forward, the University of Melbourne, Monash University and the <a href="https://www.energy-transition-hub.org/" target="_blank">Australian-German Energy Transition Hub</a> have collaborated on research that was presented at an <a href="https://www.wemcouncil.org/wp/icem/" target="_blank">international conference</a> in Denmark earlier this year.
Quantifying the difference
We simulated two scenarios: first, that all states implement polices to achieve their respective renewable energy and net zero emissions targets by 2050.
The second scenario assumed a national target would be used to result in the “same outcome” of 100% renewable energy by 2050.
The model calculates required energy investments with 5-year increments from today to 2050, including considering the existing generation currently operating. The model simultaneously optimises the mix of generation, transmission and storage to minimise the total system cost from 2020 to 2050.
A key difference in results is where and when new generation is built. Under the state-driven approach, unsurprisingly, investment shifts towards states with more ambitious targets.
The two figures below show how state-based targets drive more investment into Queensland than would be the case under a national target scheme.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286465/original/file-20190731-186819-1j9zsem.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286465/original/file-20190731-186819-1j9zsem.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
(Spatial distribution of renewable generation)
Broadly speaking, under a national target, we see more efficient use of renewable energy and associated resources. NSW – with net zero 2050 target but no interim renewable energy target – would get a greater share of the renewable energy investment.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286469/original/file-20190731-186814-1rk0hzu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286469/original/file-20190731-186814-1rk0hzu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
(Change in energy generation %)
NSW would consistently see substantially more investment under a national target scheme. This would be around 20% more generation in the 2030s in NSW, and up to 20 terawatt-hours more energy generated in the years 2030 to 2045.
The rollout of “where and when” to build new renewable and other generation to replace ageing fossil fuel power plants also impacts heavily on the sequencing and timing for major transmission upgrades across the NEM – especially interconnectors between states.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286470/original/file-20190731-186792-142o7z3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286470/original/file-20190731-186792-142o7z3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
(Transmission networks modeled)
The graph shows that under a state target based approach we build more transmission infrastructure earlier than under a national approach. Under a national target approach, we would end up building more transmission infrastructure – albeit later.
Again, broadly speaking, we would build more generation at renewable energy resource-rich areas such as NSW which happen to be near major demand centres like cities. This would delay the need for some infrastructure spend.
What about system reliability and energy costs?
The good news is it appears under either a state-based or a national target approach the outcome in 2050 is similar. The difference in total system costs is only about 1% higher in the state-based targets scenario – so, virtually nothing.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286460/original/file-20190731-186797-1csnld1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286460/original/file-20190731-186797-1csnld1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
(Evolution of electricity generation – total system)
State-based renewable energy targets lead to redistribution of renewable investments in favour of the states with a mid-term renewable energy target.
In the Australian context, the current state-based renewable energy targets have no impact on undermining power system reliability and virtually negligible impact on pushing up power prices.
Perhaps NSW should take particular note – as it would appear that it would benefit greatly from either a national target approach or an interim state target for itself.
The debate about state versus national approaches to energy policy has been going for the past 30 years and no doubt will be around for another 30. In the meantime, we need a stronger hand on the transition tiller or we will waste precious resources and time, and likely have major unintended consequences.
Scott Hamilton, Strategic Advisory Panel Member, Australian-German Energy Transition Hub, University of Melbourne. 
Changlong Wang, Researcher, The Energy Transition Hub, University of Melbourne. 
Roger Dargaville, Senior lecturer, Monash University.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-need-a-national-renewables-approach-or-some-states-like-nsw-will-miss-out-121192" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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We need a national renewables approach, or some states will miss out

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GUEST OBSERVATION
It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. (attributed to Danish physicist Niels Bohr)
The difficulty of making predictions has long been known, but the rise of the internet means that it is getting harder to hide the gaps between predictions and reality.
Perhaps the most significant example of repeated failed projections has been the International Energy Agency’s projections of the importance of renewable power – the proportion of electricity generated by solar and wind and other renewable sources other than hydro.
Beginning in 1994, when generation from these sources was negligible, the Agency has produced estimates of the future share of renewables every two years.
Every two years, with striking regularity, the previous estimates have been exceeded (hugely) and the new set has been revised upwards. But never by enough. Each time the upward revision has been inadequate.
This graph, prepared by <a href="https://www.quora.com/q/xwpxpfefwalgifkr/A-modest-proposal-to-the-International-Energy-Authority" target="_blank">Paul Mainwood</a> from IEA reports, illustrates the point:
Projections versus reality
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302056/original/file-20191117-66945-19v9ijz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302056/original/file-20191117-66945-19v9ijz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Reality versus repeated projections of renewables share of electricity generation (ex hydro). <a class="source" href="https://www.quora.com/q/xwpxpfefwalgifkr/A-modest-proposal-to-the-International-Energy-Authority" target="_blank">Paul Mainwood, Quora</a>
The dashed lines represent successive projections from 1994 to 2016.
The solid red line represents the actual growth of non-hydro renewables as a share of total electricity generation.
What can be seen is that eleven times in a row the projected growth in renewables was far too low and had to be upgraded. Eleven times in a row the upgrades weren’t big enough.
As a joke (indicated by the green line) Mainwood “corrected” the 2016 projection for the typical under-projection:
Projections plus “corrected” 2016 projection
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302067/original/file-20191117-66953-1tfh6u0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302067/original/file-20191117-66953-1tfh6u0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Reality versus projections of renewables share of electricity generation (ex hydro) plus 2016 projection corrected for typical undershoot. <a class="source" href="https://www.quora.com/q/xwpxpfefwalgifkr/A-modest-proposal-to-the-International-Energy-Authority" target="_blank">Paul Mainwood</a>
Projections often understate change
Another striking example relates to religious belief. In 2015 the Pew Research Institute released a <a href="https://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050/" target="_blank">report</a> suggesting a gradual decline in Christianity in the United States.
The headline finding for the US:
"Christians will decline from more than three-quarters (75%) of the population in 2010 to two-thirds (66%) in 2050."
Yet only four years later in 2019, Pew released another report with this headline finding about the US:
'In 2018 and 2019, 65% of American adults describe themselves as Christians when asked about their religion, down 12 percentage points over the past decade."
Thus, a decline expected to take forty years had taken place inside ten.
Moreover, Christian affiliation is highest in the older age cohorts, very few members of which will be around in 2050. Looking at the younger cohort born after 1981, only 49% claim a Christian affiliation, a proportion that has declined by 16 percentage points in a decade. Unless that trend is rapidly reversed, or later cohorts experience a religious revival, Christians will be a minority well before 2050.
They enable modellers to escape responsiblity
Faced with outcomes of this kind, modellers often defend themselves by drawing a distinction between “predictions” and “projections”.
A prediction (Latin for “foretelling”) is a claim about what is most likely to happen in the future. By contrast, a projection (“casting forward”) is a model output derived by extrapolating past trends, holding some parameters constant and allowing others to vary.
The International Energy Agency projections were characterised by the assumption that the costs of renewable energy would change only slowly, rather than continuing the extraordinary decline that began in the 1970s.
In the case of the Pew projections, the crucial parameter is conversion rates – the frequency with which people brought up with one religion (including “no religion”) change to another. The Pew projections were based on the assumption conversion rates will remain unchanged.
It is the opposite of the widely-held but controversial “secularisation hypothesis” which states that modernisation leads to increased conversions to “no religion”.
Predictions force them to take responsibility
Projections are useful in the development of models. All models are based on past experience and have to assume that in some respects the future will be like the past. By examining the projections generated under particular assumptions about which variables and parameters will remain constant, it is possible to understand how models works and make modelling choices.
But projections of this kind are of no use in informing people not familiar with the material. They mislead casual readers of the Australia’s budget.
The budget uses both predictions and projections.
For the two years following each budget the Commonwealth uses “forecasts” which it is prepared to stand by, then for the next two it presents mechanical “projections”:
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302072/original/file-20191117-66957-w8vxaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
<a class="source" href="https://www.budget.gov.au/2019-20/content/bp1/index.htm" target="_blank">2019-20 Commonwealth budget, Budget Paper 1</a>
When asked to defend (for example) its wage growth number of 3½%, the treasury points out that it is a mechanical projection rather than a forecast, a distinction lost on all but the most enthusiastic of budget devotees.
In practice it is impossible to separate the two.
Even though both the International Energy Association and Pew describe their estimates as “projections” they are almost invariably <a href="https://www.mining.com/new-iea-report-predicts-surge-in-global-coal-use-2/" target="_blank">treated as</a> <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/future-religion-around-world-one-chart" target="_blank">predictions</a>. 
Since any statement about the future will be treated as a prediction, the only serious option for modellers prepared to be truthful with the public is to bite the bullet and make predictions.
It means working hard to make the best possible estimate of the future paths of all model parameters, and using judgement to take account of everything else.
It’s what those of us looking to experts for guidance deserve.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126734/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/please-no-more-projections-what-we-need-are-predictions-and-theyre-harder-126734" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Please, no more projections. What we need are predictions, and they’re harder

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Australian household electricity have risen exponentially in the last decade, however new data shows that they could drop by as much as 20% by 2022 in some areas. 
Modelling conducted by the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) indicate that a wave of new renewable energy entering the electricity grid is pushing down retail prices. 
Retail electricity bills are projected to fall nationally at a 7.1% average between 2019 and 2022. 
In south-east Queensland, household bills are expected to fall by 20% in that time - an average annual saving of $278. Falls in other states are projected to be smaller. 
The National Electricity Market (NEM) is one of the largest interconnected electricity systems in the world.
It comprises approximately 40,000 kilometres of transmission lines and cables, supplying nine million customers in all states and territories other than Western Australia and the Northern Territory. 
Prices have risen since 2009, after more than half a century of consistently cheaper electricity year-on-year, due to a significant and largely unnecessary rise in spending on network infrastructure, uncertainty about climate policy, and a large increase in wholesale prices. 
The latter was triggered by both rising coal and gas prices and sudden exit of coal-fired power generators, and created a disorderly transition to firmed renewables. 
The recent modelling however showed that additional electricity supply is now putting significant downward pressure on wholesale prices. 
This is due to a very large quantity of new renewable projects coming online, adding much-needed supply. 
The sudden closure of coal-fired power stations such as Hazelwood in Victoria took a lot of electricity from the system, leading to higher wholesale prices.
This drove new investment in gas, wind and solar generation, which is projected to cause prices to fall. 
Modelling shows wholesale costs falling by 10-17% by 2022 across the NEM, which should flow on to the retail price paid by households.
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AEMC predicts power prices in Australia to fall significantly 

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With summer renovation season upon us, Australia’s national science agency, CSIRO, have shared their top tips on renovating and retrofitting your home for energy efficiency.

Australian homes could see a 30–50 per cent reduction in your heating and cooling needs, with energy-efficient home improvements, saving you money.

The average family spends between $2,000 and $3,000 on energy per year, according to CSIRO’s research lead of building simulation and communication, Anthony Wright.

<blockquote>
“Of that, roughly 40 per cent will be heating and cooling energy, 25 per cent will be hot water, and the rest will be lighting and appliances”, he said.
</blockquote>

But, whether new or old. You can retrofit your home or apartment, and get results, with minimal cost.

<a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/solarpanels.png" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="383" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/solarpanels.png?itok=lZnPdqRY" width="580"></a>

The average existing house is rated 2.2 stars for energy efficiency according to data from CSIRO’s Australian housing data portal – the most energy-efficient houses are 10 stars.

But the average renovation jumps up to 4.9 stars, reducing heating and cooling demand by 40 per cent and saving up to $480 per year. Here are CSIRO’s tips for how to do this:

1. Choose and use your appliances wisely 

CSIRO's research lead of building simulation and communication, Anthony Wright, explained that replacing appliances with energy-efficient ones is probably the first thing to do, especially in apartments where retrofitting proves difficult.

If homeowners upgrade their hot water, heater and air-conditioner, as well as their other appliances, such as the energy-hogging fridge, they could halve their other energy use, Wright told Urban.com.au. But what about the rest…

2. Install solar photovoltaic (PV) panels 

<blockquote>
“The rest of their energy consumption could be cost effectively offset with solar panels,” he said.
</blockquote>

As panels reach grid parity, more Australians are choosing to install solar panels to not only reduce their carbon emissions but their energy bills.

According to CSIRO, homes rated at eight stars and above can often generate their own power from a standard solar array over a year.

3. Seal, glaze and insulate 

Draft sealing, including around windows and doors, wall vents and exhaust fans are the best bang for the buck when trying to make your home more energy-efficient. But what about apartment owners?

<blockquote>
“Sealing gaps and cracks is also still a good idea in older apartments but not always possible in a high-rise where wind pressure is much higher and façade treatments are shared across multiple apartments”, said Wright.
</blockquote>

4. Install external shading 

Heat gain can be a great problem in homes and apartments – however, installing external shading is an easy way to prevent this. This could include awnings, shutters, blinds and landscaping.

For apartments, particularly for those that face west, heat gain can be an even bigger problem and external shading may often not be allowed. For this, Anthony Wright advises residents work with the body corporate to find a solution to find the best way forward.

<blockquote>
“External shading, window films, or replacing glazing are all possible but vary in complexity and cost depending on the building.”
</blockquote>

5. Don’t neglect the small stuff

Making sure all your light globes are LEDs and installing ceilings fans often deliver the best bang for your buck in both homes and apartments.

Whilst expensive, replacing major appliances with five- and six-star new appliances will only save you money in the long-term.

But energy-efficient retrofitting can include anything from ceiling insulation top up, installing heavy drapes and pelmets, installing underfloor insulation or replacing windows with double or triple glazed windows.

Here's Wright's list for retrofitting from the best bang for your buck to the least:

<ul>
<li>
	Draft sealing Including around windows and doors, chimneys, wall vents, exhaust fans, evaporative cooling vents etc.) There are products for all these applications that can be easily installed.
	</li>
	<li>
	Make sure all your light globes are LEDs
	</li>
	<li>
	Install ceiling fans
	</li>
	<li>
	Ceiling insulation top-up
	</li>
	<li>
	Replace major appliances with 5-6 star new appliances
	</li>
	<li>
	Install heavy drapes and pelmets (in cool climates where you want to retain heat in winter)
	</li>
	<li>
	Install underfloor insulation (if you’re in a cool/temperate climate and have a raised floor)
	</li>
	<li>
	Install external shading to windows where heat gain is a problem in summer, such as awnings, shutters, blinds, landscaping
	</li>
	<li>
	Replace windows with double or triple glazed window
	</li>
	<li>
	Consider retrofitting wall insulation where possible
	</li>
</ul>
<h2>A few energy-efficient developments on the market right now</h2>

<a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/folia-59-stables-circuit-doncaster-f5461f57f0abf5e886a22b59c0d72e62_1.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="326" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/folia-59-stables-circuit-doncaster-f5461f57f0abf5e886a22b59c0d72e62_1.jpg?itok=mElJh2z8" width="580"></a>

If you’re looking to beat the summer heat and <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/guides/how-to-buy-a-house-in-2020-a-guide-for-first-time-home-buyers">find a new home</a> with energy-efficient features, CSIRO has also passed on tips that can help you save you money. 

<blockquote>
“A first home buyer should always ask for an accredited NatHERS energy rating”, Wright tells us.
</blockquote>

For every additional star under the energy rating scheme, a house or apartment should use approximately 20-30 per cent less energy to heat and cool.

A 10-star house uses almost not energy to stay comfortable year round, yet the average older house in Australia rates at just two stars. The average new house is rated at six stars, the minimum required for newly developed homes.

When getting an energy rating done, Wright advises homeowners to ask your energy rater to show you how the house will perform in a summer heat wave or a winter cold snap.

“Knowing how it will operate without the heating and cooling turned on will give you an idea of how uncomfortable it is likely to be”, he said.

Residents should always ask raters for tips on how to improve, especially following a renovation or retrofitting project. Here are our top energy-efficient and sustainable picks for December 2020:

1. <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/daracombe-7-daracombe-avenue-kew">Daracombe, Kew</a>

<a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/daracombe-7-daracombe-avenue-kew-3fa88421280dad9688bb7c73c7bcf93e_0.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="326" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/daracombe-7-daracombe-avenue-kew-3fa88421280dad9688bb7c73c7bcf93e_0.jpg?itok=50mitpow" width="580"></a>

Situated in Melbourne’s inner-East, Daracombe offers residents the opportunity to save 30 per cent on their utility bills thanks to their sustainability features and include sustainable features such as LED lighting, full-height double glazed windows, rain water harvesting and cross-flow ventilation

2. <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-townhouses/salt-townhomes-85-grossmans-road-torquay?last_source_news_article_id=41378&amp;ref=news_related_project">Salt Townhomes, Torquay </a>

<a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/salt-townhomes-85-grossmans-road-torquay-c7f02c52e41ff3514e514ef866e093e3_1.jpeg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="387" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/salt-townhomes-85-grossmans-road-torquay-c7f02c52e41ff3514e514ef866e093e3_1.jpeg?itok=kenjv7DK" width="580"></a>

Salt Townhomes offers residents sustainable living amongst the Surf Coast lifestyle with an average 7.5 star energy rated design that boasts natural materials, double glazing and solar panels.

3. <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/folia-59-stables-circuit-doncaster?last_source_news_article_id=41378&amp;ref=news_related_project">Tullamore, Doncaster</a>

<a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/shared-kitchen-garden-folia_1030x620pxl.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="349" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/shared-kitchen-garden-folia_1030x620pxl.jpg?itok=WU1C1Sw4" width="580"></a>

Located on Doncaster Road, Tullamore offers residents sustainable living from an entry price point of $400,000 at their Folia apartments development.

Folia achieved a six-leaf EnviroDevelopment accreditation, the highest available in Australia with sustainable features such as a 70kWh solar panel array, integrated water management plan and the option to include a Tesla Powerwall II battery. 

To view the full list of projects, read <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/buying/5-new-sustainable-developments-for-the-environmentally-conscious-buyer-2020">5 new sustainable developments for the environmentally-conscious buyer</a>. 

<h2>Recently listed properties:</h2>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=22699]

[smartcode_project:default project_id=29358]

[smartcode_project:default project_id=22803]
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Whether new or old, here's how your home can be energy efficient, with minimal cost

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