New Dwellings

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GUEST OBSERVER
The announcement by the Minister for Housing and Planning, Anthony Roberts, that housing completions have reached a record high is good news for housing supply but the approvals trend is downwards.
The record 34,121 housing completions for metropolitan Sydney is good for housing supply.
This is the highest figure since May 1971 when 35,886 homes were completed. The high completion numbers come from planning approvals from two years ago so it is important to also monitor current approvals.
The large component of high density apartments in the current housing completion numbers at 72 percent indicates a continuing swing to urban living in locations close to jobs and transport nodes. It is important that this trend continues but the Urban Taskforce is concerned that the Greater Sydney Commission’s District Plans will make it more difficult to develop housing in urban centres and on industrial land.
The housing approval numbers for Sydney have dropped from a high in September 2016 of 57,723 year to date to 54,722 in December 2016. Our concern is that this drop of 3,000 housing approvals seems to be a continuing trend which is supported by the January Australian Bureau of Statistics figures for housing approvals.
To enable a continuing pipeline of new housing for Sydney the Urban Taskforce has asked its members for details of large housing projects that are caught up in the planning system. We have received details of over 40 projects representing around 40,000 new homes that are locked in the planning system that could be fast tracked.
Today’s strong housing completion numbers are heading in the right direction but they are still below the average needed over 20 years according to Department of Planning projections. We really need over 40,000 new homes annually over the next few years to balance the previous lean years.
The NSW Planning system is seen by many industry experts to be slower and more complex than that in Victoria or Queensland and the new Planning Minister has an opportunity to simplify the system to ensure a continuing pipeline of housing approvals comes on line.
Chris Johnson is chief executive officer of property development industry group Urban Taskforce and can be contacted <a href="https://www.urbantaskforce.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=97&amp;Itemid=126#.Vdaart55dFI" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Record housing completions is good news but the trend is downwards: Chris Johnson

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New home sales hit a two-year low in October 2016, but have since staged something of a recovery. While new detached house sales dipped by 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter, sales of new multi-unit dwellings ticked back up by 3.2 percent.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/10/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-10%20at%209.16.02%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/10/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-10%20at%209.16.02%20AM.png" alt=""> 
In fact the result for multi-units in December was the highest seen for a year-and-a-half, at least in seasonally adjusted terms. 
Detached house sales were strongest in the two most populous states, according to the Housing Industry Association (HIA). 
 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/10/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-10%20at%209.16.08%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/10/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-10%20at%209.16.08%20AM.png" alt="">
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/">blogger</a>. 
 
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New home sales staging a recovery: Pete Wargent

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While on the subject of dwelling price indices, CoreLogic's index results to 31 July showed capital growth across the combined capital cities of +10.5 per cent over the year to July. 
The quarterly price increased across the capital cities slowed to +2.2 per cent in July, down from a pacy +3.6 per cent in February.
Sydney houses (+12.3 per cent) and units (+10.3 per cent) have continued to be strong performers over the year to July 2017.
Growth in Melbourne house prices has accelerated to a thumping +17.2 per cent, although unit prices (+4.6 per cent) have lagged.  
Overall, this helped to take the median capital city dwelling price to a new high of $625,000.
The rest of state figures increased by +5.4 per cent over the year to July, to $382,500.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/07/CL.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/07/CL.jpg" alt="">
 
Rental price growth returns
CoreLogic's quarterly showed a return to annual rental price growth, following a crackdown on lending to investors. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/07/DGF71qyUMAATak6.jpg-large.jpeg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/07/DGF71qyUMAATak6.jpg-large.jpeg" alt="">
 
The rental price growth was driven by Sydney, (+4.5 per cent) Melbourne (+4.1 per cent), Hobart (+6.2 per cent), and Canberra (+8.4 per cent).
These rental price gains were offset by declines in Darwin and Perth.
Perth levelling out
CoreLogic noted that Perth appears to be approaching the bottom of its market cycle, with prices easing by -0.3 per cent over the three months to July. 
Prices in the Western Australian capital have declined by -10.2 per cent since the market peak in 2014.
Transaction volumes in Perth have also found a floor at 2,500 per month, while listing numbers have also declined.
The "mining cliff" has now been effectively seen off<a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/mining-cliff-seen-off">,</a> too.
These are positive numbers, though I do note that my dwelling supply dashboard implies that there will yet be a lot of new dwellings to be absorbed!
 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
 
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