Melbourne Rental Market

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EXPERT INSIGHT

One of the most prominent trends in Australian housing markets over the past 12 months has been the deterioration of rents in inner city apartment markets across Sydney and Melbourne. At the greater capital city level, rent values have fallen -4.9% across Sydney units since March last year, while Melbourne unit rents have fallen -8.2%.

Much of the drag on unit rents in Sydney and Melbourne have come from inner city regions. CoreLogic estimates suggest the SA4 ‘City and Inner South’ market of Sydney accounts for 18.6% of investment units across the Greater Sydney area. The ‘Melbourne – Inner’ region comprises an estimated 45.9% of investment unit stock in the greater capital city.

In the 12 months to March, which virtually captures 12 months since COVID restrictions were implemented nationally, the City and Inner South of Sydney has seen a -14.5% decline in median asking rents from $620 per week, to $530. Median asking rents across the Melbourne – Inner region sank -18.9% over the year, from $475 per week to $385. For both cities, these inner city SA4 markets have seen the lowest rate of change in rents over the year.

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Previous CoreLogic research has highlighted that these markets were disproportionately impacted by the closure of international borders, where most overseas arrivals to Australia are initially renters. In the year of measurement before COVID-19, ABS data suggests the City and Inner South and Melbourne – Inner markets alone accounted for 11.2% of net overseas arrivals to Australia. Hence, the halting of overseas migration has had a disproportionate impact on rental markets in these regions.

While these markets are far from recovery, there are signs that conditions may be stabilising, particularly across Sydney. Median asking rents across units in the City and Inner South of Sydney were -14.5% lower over the year to March, but they have risen 6.0% from a recent low of $500 per week in December. Melbourne – Inner median asking rents did slip another -3.8% through the March quarter, but listings stock appears to have been moderating since early February.

Total unit rental stock on the market across inner Sydney and Melbourne is falling. In the 28 days ending April 11th, the amount of listed rentals declined -9.4% across inner Melbourne, and -15.5% across inner Sydney.

For Melbourne however, available unit rentals remain 121.1% higher compared with the 28 day period to March 15 2020, when Australia recorded its 100th case of COVID-19. Sydney unit rental listings have now fallen below pre-COVID levels by -4.5%, highlighting a much faster recovery than across Melbourne.

The elevated rent listings volume through the second half of 2020 across inner Melbourne also shows how an extended lockdown and social distancing restrictions across the city had contributed to a deterioration in rents.

There are several factors which might explain the curious stabilisation of inner city unit markets;

<ul>
<li>Economic activity in CBDs is recovering, but gradually. Easing of COVID-19 restrictions has seen a recovery trend across recreation and hospitality businesses, reflected in very strong gains in sentiment through the month of March. Higher employment levels in hospitality, tourism and the arts are particularly important for demand in inner city Sydney and Melbourne rental markets, because residents in these markets had a relatively high exposure to these industries pre-COVID.</li>
	<li>Pedestrian foot traffic data from the City of Melbourne suggests visitation to the CBD has improved on 2020, but is still only at 50% of pre-COVID levels.</li>
	<li>It is worth noting that this progress of economic activity in the CBDs may be hampered by the end of JobKeeper. This is particularly the case for Melbourne, where around 300,000 people are recipients of the wage subsidy (though a smaller portion of these JobKeeper recipients would currently have no working hours).</li>
	<li>Interstate travel may be tightening rental market conditions. The initial onset of COVID-19 had anecdotally seen short term rentals, namely Airbnb accommodation, put onto the long term rental market. While short term accommodation volumes may still be affected by a lack of international tourism, there is likely higher demand amid eased restrictions, open domestic borders and domestic tourism. Indeed, AirDNA data showed Melbourne short term accommodation volumes rise over the first quarter of Mach 2021.</li>
	<li>Investors may be selling up. The coming months may see some instances of investors looking to sell inner city apartments amid weak rental conditions. This could see properties, at least temporarily, taken off the rental market.</li>
</ul>
While conditions across inner city apartments seem to stabilising, it is clear the Melbourne apartment market has a long way to go before rents see a more consistent recovery trend. This may be further hampered by the construction pipeline, where recently released ABS building activity data showed there were still 43,302 apartments under construction across Victoria through the December quarter. The return of international visitation to Australia has previously kept the Melbourne rental market buoyant amid high levels of new supply. A full recovery in rental incomes across Melbourne units is unlikely under international arrivals are closer to pre-COVID levels.
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One of the most prominent trends in Australian housing markets over the past 12 months has been the deterioration of rents in inner city apartment markets across Sydney and Melbourne

jordan_55689

CoreLogic data shows signs of stabilising in inner city rental markets: Eliza Owen

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The disparity in rental markets across Australia has been extreme. At one end of the spectrum we have extremely tight rental conditions in cities such as Perth and Darwin where both house and unit annual rental growth is above 10%. At the other end are the unit rental markets of Sydney and Melbourne where rents have plunged over the last year, down -5.3% in Sydney, and -8.0% lower in Melbourne. In a similar vein to housing values, rental markets are stronger within the detached housing sector relative to the unit sector.

“The strength in Perth and Darwin’s rental sector can be attributed to a mix of low supply, due to a recent history of low investor participation, and rising demand as interstate migration trends move into positive territory. The opposite trends in Sydney and Melbourne have seen rental markets weaken; higher rental supply due to a recent history of investor exuberance, weaker demand from negative interstate migration and, more recently, a demand shock from closed international borders where Melbourne and Sydney were the primary recipients of migrant arrivals,” Mr Lawless said.

However, the weak conditions across Sydney and Melbourne unit markets look to be turning. Sydney’s rental index for units has recorded two successive months of mild rises, while Melbourne unit rents edged higher in February after falling for nine of the previous ten months. The improvement in unit rents across Australia’s two largest cities is likely to be at least partially seasonal as demand from domestic students generally rises early in the year, but could also be attributable to more people returning to work in the inner cities as well as workers in some of the hardest hit industries such as hospitality, food and accommodation services returning to employment.

Until international borders re-open and migration rates return to their pre-COVID levels, a more substantial improvement in inner city apartment rents is unlikely.

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Weaker rental conditions in Sydney and Melbourne relative to rising home values is evident in the gross rental yields, with yields across both cities falling to fresh record lows in February. Gross rental yields in Sydney were recorded at 2.9% at the end of February, while in Melbourne yields averaged 3.0%. Every other capital city is recording gross rental yields around the mid-4% mark or higher, implying positive cash flow opportunities are more likely in these markets.

Australian home values surged 2.1% higher in February; the largest month-on-month change in CoreLogic’s national home value index since August 2003. Spurred on by a combination of record low mortgage rates, improving economic conditions, government incentives and low advertised supply levels, Australia’s housing market is in the midst of a broad-based boom.

Housing values are rising across each of the capital city and rest of state regions, demonstrating the diverse nature of this housing upswing.

According to CoreLogic’s research director, Tim Lawless, a synchronised growth phase like this hasn’t been seen in Australia for more than a decade. “The last time we saw a sustained period where every capital city and rest of state region was rising in value was mid-2009 through to early 2010, as post-GFC stimulus fueled buyer demand.”

Sydney and Melbourne were among the strongest performing markets, recording a 2.5% and 2.1% lift in home values over the month respectively, as Australia’s two largest cities caught up from weaker performance through 2020. The quarterly trend however, is still favouring the smaller cities; Darwin housing values rose 5.5% over the past three months, Hobart values rose 4.8% and Perth was up 4.2%.

“Whether this new found growth in Sydney and Melbourne can be sustained is unclear. Both cities are still recording values below their earlier peaks, however at this current rate of appreciation it won’t be long before Australia’s two most expensive capital city markets are moving through new record highs. With household incomes expected to remain subdued and stimulus winding down, it is likely affordability will once again become a challenge in these cities,” Mr Lawless said.

A housing market trend that has persisted through the COVID period to-date is the weaker performance of unit markets relative to detached housing. Across CoreLogic’s combined capitals index, house values (+4.4% over the past three months) have recorded a growth rate more than three times higher than that of its unit counterparts (+1.4%). There are some tentative signs this trend could become less obvious, with Sydney unit values recording their first month of growth since April last year and Melbourne unit values recording their largest gain since late 2019.
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The disparity in rental markets across Australia has been extreme

Unit rents down -8% in Melbourne but soar 10% in Perth and Darwin

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EXPERT INSIGHT

This is largely conjecture, but as Sydney's rental market is steadily righting itself, Melbourne's inner city unit market may need to see rents falling by 50 per cent to fill up the empty units left in the wake of the repeated border closures and lockdowns. 

New South Wales is taking three times as many arrivals as Victoria through quarantine, which may be a part of the equation.

But just as pertinently the on again/off again closures and snap lockdowns will likely see thousands averting Victoria and heading to sunny south-east Queensland instead (and who can blame them?), especially as employers have become more open to the work from home phenomenon.

To be sure this is a rough and ready thesis, but I've seen parts of Noosa Shire with effectively zero rental vacancies lately, and without looking into it too deeply I wouldn't mind a bet that Gold Coast is heading in a similar direction.

A quick straw poll search of realestate.com.au for rental advertisements by Central Business District postcode shows:

<ul>
<li>Hobart TAS 7000 - 31 results</li>
	<li>Perth WA 6000 - 177 results</li>
	<li>Brisbane QLD 4000 - 384 results</li>
	<li>Sydney NSW 2000 - 437 results</li>
	<li>Adelaide SA 5000 - 487 results</li>
	<li>Melbourne VIC 3000 - 3,974 results</li>
</ul>
Granted this is lazy and half-baked analysis, but I also reckon it's pretty much indicative of the reality. 

If you include the city and its surrounding suburbs Melbourne blows out to 12,708 results, versus 2,309 for Sydney CBD and fringe, and 1,957 for Brisbane. 

That can only mean falling rents for Melbourne CBD and its immediate surrounds. 

A potential 50 per cent drop in rents is far from hyperbole: the 12-month change in asking rents for units in the Melbourne 3000 postcode is -33.3 per cent, according to SQM Research data.

For units in Docklands in Melbourne the 12-month change is -31.4 per cent.

Melbourne's loss is Queensland's gain. 
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Melbourne's inner city unit market may need to see rents falling by 50 per cent to fill up the empty units left in the wake of the repeated border closures and lockdowns

pwargent

Melbourne's ongoing rental strife will lead to falling rents: Pete Wargent

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Melbourne's inner city unit market recorded the largest falls across Australia this year down -7.6 per cent over 2020, according to CoreLogic’s Rental Review for the December 2020 quarter.

Across the individual property types nationally, houses substantially outperformed units over the year, with house rents rising by 3.9% annually against a 3% reduction in unit rents.. Unit rents were down -4.6% across the combined capital city unit market.

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Despite Melbourne recording the largest falls in unit rental rates over the year, Melbourne remains the third most expensive unit market of the capital cities behind Sydney and Canberra. 

Melbourne came in as the third most affordable capital city to rent a house.

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The area's hit hardest in Melbourne were the City and &amp; Inner East down -13.7 per cent and  -5.3 per cent. Following behind those loss leaders were the North West and Inner South, -3 per cent and -2.9 per cent respectively.

Some regions did see improvement across the wider region including with the Mornington Peninsula up 5 per cent and the Outer East up 0.6 per cent, the only two regions that didn't see a loss in values.

Rental conditions in regional markets have been outperforming capital cities with unit markets recording weak conditions across the largest capital cities.

December 2020 saw Australia’s dwelling market record the largest monthly increase in rental rates since 2010, up 0.6 per cent over the month. The 10 year record can be attributed to growth across the house market which saw a 0.9 per cent rise in rental rates over the month, more than offsetting a -0.1 per cent fall in unit rents.

Across the broad regions, regional markets were the standout performer with both house and unit rents up 1.1 per cent in December, taking house rents 2.9 per cent higher over the final quarter of 2020 and unit rents 2.6 per cent higher.

Unit rental rates across the capital cities fell -0.3 per cent over the month to be down -1.6 per cent over the December quarter. Despite the diverse performance over the year, national rents rose by 1.9 per cent annually in 2020, which was the largest annual increase across the dwelling market since mid-2018. 
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Melbourne's inner city unit market recorded the largest falls across Australia this year down -7.6 per cent over 2020

Melbourne Rental Market

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