Housing Affordability

<h2>Expert Observer</h2>

With the Federal election all but wrapped up, what can prospective buyers expect from the change in government, with the Labor party&rsquo;s win bringing a raft of policy changes.

With a look to address the property market&rsquo;s biggest issues,&nbsp; the headlining &lsquo;Help to Buy&rsquo; scheme is likely to be popular with prospective home buyers, as it provides a more affordable entry point to the Australian housing market for those individuals on low-to-mid level incomes.

This will contribute to more equality in rates of home ownership across income cohorts, and could create more opportunities for key workers to live in more central areas.

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Being able to share up to 40% of the purchase price with the government, along with only a small deposit and opportunity to save on lenders mortgage insurance, helps to overcome several of the hurdles of home ownership.

Keeping in mind buyers will still have to fund their transactional costs, including stamp duties, legal costs and bank fees.

Labor&rsquo;s Help to Buy scheme will involve an equity contribution from the Federal Government of up to 40 per cent of the purchase price of a new home, and up to 30 per cent for an existing home for 10,000 Australian&rsquo;s each financial year, with homebuyers needing just a 2 per cent deposit.

With a cap of 10,000 places, the scheme could be quickly oversubscribed as prospective Australian home buyers take advantage of the leg up into the housing market, Lawless says, highlighting the First Home Loan Deposit scheme, which saw the first 10,000 places of the scheme allocated within six months.

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However places for new homes were not taken up as quickly, and building constraints and high construction costs could deter the uptake of a shared equity scheme for new homes.

Having said that, a higher interest rate environment, which may see lower prices, could make people more cautious of buying, reducing demand for the scheme in the short term.

Historically, residential transaction activity correlates with property price movements. Additionally, we have just been through a period of significantly elevated transaction activity, including from the first home buyer cohort, where many home purchasing decisions were likely brought forward to take advantage of the swathe of home buying grants and incentives over 2020 and 2021.

The added flexibility of buyers being able to &lsquo;top up&rsquo; their ownership stake once in a better financial position is another advantage of the scheme, although any change in the proportion of ownership would presumably be accompanied by a paydown in the share of equity that has accrued in the property back to the government.

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Help to Buy scheme

<ul>
	<li>Government helps with up to 40% of property price for new homes, 30% for established, households source the rest of finance with as little as 2% deposit. Government holds a part ownership stake in the property, which can be bought out over time.</li>
	<li>Spots: 10,000 ▪ Income cap: $90k for individuals / $120k for couples</li>
	<li>Property price cap: varies by region, from $400k up to $950k ▪ Restricted to owner occupier buyers who don&rsquo;t currently own a property</li>
	<li>Commences from July 2022 Although the scheme is expected to be popular among buyers, Lawless warned anyone considering the scheme should be aware of the risks associated with buying on such a small deposit.</li>
</ul>

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With the housing market probably heading into a downturn over the coming year or years, some buyers may find their home is worth less than the debt held against it.

It&rsquo;s important to know if the government will share in the downside risk if the property is sold while in a negative equity situation.

KeyStart Loans in WA is a good example of what can happen to a shared equity scheme in a declining market. According to the WA government, the portion of KeyStart loan accounts in default did rise between January 2017 and September 2019, from 0.92% to 1.21% of KeyStart accounts, in the midst of a long, large housing downturn across WA.

However, he also added the default rate is still relatively low and the scheme has helped thousands of people into home ownership, saying, the nature of the housing and economic downturn in WA has posed a lot more risk to serviceability than the relatively tight labour market conditions we see in Australia at the moment.

While the Help to Buy scheme will help thousands of Australian&rsquo;s enter the property market, it&rsquo;s only addressing the symptoms of housing affordability rather than aim to actually fix the underlying issues.

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Similar to the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme, the new Labor Government appears to be adjusting from housing affordability solutions to more pragmatic policies that target home ownership, avoiding any downward pressure on housing prices.

It is also worth considering any demand-side incentives can add upward pressure to home prices. For this reason, the limited number of places in this particular scheme, along with price caps and income caps, should help to contain some of the excess demand that could result in upward pressure on prices.

Help to Buy is restricted to Australian&rsquo;s with a taxable income of up to $90,000 for individuals and up to $120,000 for couples. Capped at 10,000, applicants are also required to be Australian citizens and first home buyers.

Regional First Home Buyer Support Scheme 

<ul>
	<li>Government provides a deposit guarantee for regional home buyers with a deposit of at least 5%</li>
	<li>Spots: 10,000</li>
	<li>Income cap: $125k for individuals / $200k for couples</li>
	<li>Property price cap: varies by region, from $350k up to $800k to be reviewed half yearly</li>
	<li>Restricted to owner occupier buyers who haven&rsquo;t previously owned a property and have been living in the region for at least 12 months</li>
	<li>Commences from January 2023</li>
</ul>

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The Regional First Home Buyer Support Scheme extends the existing First Home Loan Deposit Scheme by providing an additional 10,000 places specifically for regional first home purchases, providing a guarantee of up to 15 per cent for eligible first home buyers &ndash; so that locals with a&nbsp;five per cent deposit can avoid paying mortgage insurance.

Based on the property price caps, the scheme is likely to be most popular for those buyers targeting a unit purchase, or lower priced regional markets where detached housing values are more affordable.

CoreLogic&rsquo;s analysis of regional Australian suburbs shows roughly one third recorded a median house value equal to or under the Regional First Home Buyer Support Scheme price cap, and 71.1 per cent recorded a median unit value equal to or less than the price cap.

The Labor party notes &lsquo;the housing crisis is hitting regional Australia the hardest&rsquo;, which isn&rsquo;t necessarily true from a purchasing perspective.&quot;

Although regional housing values have risen faster than capital city housing values over the past few years, we are still seeing the dwelling value to household income ratio across regional Australia (a ratio of 7.9 in March 2022) lower than the capitals (a ratio of 8.5).

From a rental perspective, regional renters have been dedicating a larger proportion of their incomes towards rent than the capital cities since 2017.

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Establishment of a National Housing Supply and Affordability Council 

<ul>
	<li>The newly established council would sit within an expanded remit of NHFIC (National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation) renamed Housing Australia. ▪ The council would: ▪ take a leadership role for setting land supply targets (in consultation state and territory governments)</li>
	<li>Establish a housing data warehouse focussed on housing supply, demand and affordability</li>
	<li>Advise on town planning policies and land supply</li>
	<li>Report on government owned land releases, rental affordability, homelessness and the number of new social &amp; affordable homes built annually</li>
	<li>Advise on appropriate housing measures within all current and future City and Regional Deals.</li>
</ul>

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Many of the factors contributing to worsening housing affordability, such as insuffficent land release and restirive town planning policies will soon be part of an extended remit for the reframed NHFIC, which would be re-branded as Housing Australia, The expanded role will administer the various government programs, including the Help to Buy scheme, existing deposit guarantee schemes and the Housing Australia Future Fund, as well as take responsibility for the newly created National Housing and Affordability Council and National Housing and Homeless Plan.

Lawless said NHFIC&rsquo;s expanded remit should help to address the issues that make housing unaffordable, while also providing more transparency and reporting about the release of government owned land and helping to steer policies related to social and affordable housing supply.

It was interesting to note Labor intends to fund some of these initiatives by applying higher fees on foreign buyer purchases.

Higher fees and costs associated with foreign buying activity comes after a recent history of substantially higher federal and state-based taxes on this buyer segment. In fact, this may have contributed to foreign buying approvals hitting record lows according to FIRB data.

Further disincentives for foreign buying have the potential to keep foreign purchasing at low levels, which could have a negative outcome on rental supply. Arguably, higher levels of foreign buying activity could help to alleviate the rental crisis Australia is navigating by introducing more rental housing into Australia, given that foreign buyers generally have to buy new homes.

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The Housing Australia Future Fund 

<ul>
	<li>A $10 billion initiative with the objective of funding social and affordable housing properties.</li>
	<li>Over the first five years the fund has a goal of building:
	<ul>
		<li>20,000 social housing properties &nbsp;</li>
		<li>10,000 affordable homes for key workers</li>
		<li>$200 million in maintenance/improvements of housing in indigenous communities</li>
		<li>$100 million for transitional housing options supporting women and children in domestic violence situations</li>
		<li>$30 million for housing veterans who are experiencing or at risk of homelessness.</li>
	</ul>
	</li>
</ul>

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With the stock of social housing increasing only marginally since 2006, investment in social and affordable housing is long overdue.

While the additional funding and housing support for disadvantaged sectors of the community is welcome, the 30,000 additional dwelling over five years remains insufficient.

A recent report from Brendan Coates at the Grattan Institute noted even with 100,000 extra social housing properties targeted towards people in most need, more than two thirds of low-income Australians would remain in the private rental market where national rents are currently rising at around 9% per annum.

National Housing and Homelessness Plan 

<ul>
	<li>Aims to establish key short, medium and longer term reforms making it easier for Australians to buy a home, rent and provide shelter for homeless Australians.</li>
</ul>

There is little detail so far on this initiative and the plan is yet to be formulated. However, the Labor party has expressed a commitment to working with a broad range of stakeholders including the states and territories, local governments, industry bodies, superannuation funds and other relevant experts on how to address housing, finance and urban development.

Tim Lawless is CoreLogic&#39;s Research Director.

Labor’s Help to Buy scheme will involve an equity contribution from the Federal Government of up to 40 per cent of the purchase price of a new home, and up to 30 per cent for an existing home


tlawless

What a Labor Government means for housing affordability and the Australian property market

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Soaring home prices have put first home buyers on the back foot, with affordability now a key issue in the Australian property market.

The continued house price growth has poured cold water on first home buyers, who until the end of March had the $15,000 HomeBuilder Grant as a financial platform when buying new property.

The median sale price for a house has reached over $1.1 million in Sydney in April, followed by $806,000 in Melbourne, according to CoreLogic. Apartments approve the more attractive proposition for first home buyers, with Sydney's median at $755,360 and Melbourne's at $593,121.

The growing property prices has led to first home buyers considering buying interstate, Finder’s First Home Buyers Report 2021 has found.

Finder surveyed 1,028 first home buyers, and 20 per cent said they are searching for their first property in a different state to where they currently live. That equates to around 2,362 first home buyers a month willing to buy in another state to get on the property ladder.

<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/vic/urbans-top-suburbs-for-vic-first-home-buyers-in-q1-2021">Read more: Urban’s top suburbs for VIC first home buyers in Q1 2021</a> 
The report found that first home buyers from New South Wales (24%) are more likely to consider buying a property in another state than those living in Queensland (19%) and Victoria (17%).  
Sarah Megginson, home loans expert at Finder, said that many prospective buyers are being lured by cheaper property across state borders.  
“Some first home buyers are looking at real estate in other parts of the country where prices are more affordable, with many feeling the pressure to buy while interest rates are low. 

<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/vic/urbans-most-popular-vic-projects-for-first-home-buyers-in-q1-2021">Read more: Urban's most popular VIC projects for first home buyers in Q1 2021</a> 
“The impact of COVID-19 has also caused a spike in demand for regional properties, as residents in Sydney and Melbourne consider swapping city living for more of a laidback lifestyle.  
“With property prices soaring in recent months, it can put additional pressure on first home buyers, who may find themselves priced out of their own city. 

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“This is where an interstate move can work to your advantage as a prospective buyer.  
“Even if you’re not keen to move, a rentvesting strategy – where you buy a more affordable home in a different location and continue renting where you want to live – offers a way to get your foot on the property ladder,” Megginson said.  

<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/qld/april-2021-four-homes-to-secure-in-queenslands-city-of-logan-from-230000">Read more: our homes to secure in Queensland’s City of Logan from $230,000</a> 
Finder’s First Home Buyers Report 2021 also found that men (24%) are more likely than women (17%) to be considering an interstate move to get into the property market.
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The growing property prices has led to first home buyers considering buying interstate, Finder’s First Home Buyers Report 2021 has found

Joel Robinson

One in five first home buyers open to buying in a different state

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The 2021 Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey ranks Australia as having two of the most expensive housing markets in the world.

This year’s report assesses 92 major metropolitan markets in eight nations in the third quarter of 2020 with 36 severely unaffordable major housing markets.

The 10 least affordable were ranked as Hong Kong, Vancouver, Sydney, Auckland, Toronto, Melbourne, San Jose, San Francisco, Honolulu and London.

It is presented by the Urban Reform Institute and the Frontier Centre for Public Policy who work on a price to income ratio.

"It is not surprising that housing affordability — given the large influx of new buyers, particularly in suburban and outlying areas — has continued to deteriorate," institute president Charles Blain advised.

"As a result many low-income and middle-income households who already have suffered the worst consequences from housing inflation will see their standards of living further decline."

The report noted virtually all of the markets with severely unaffordable housing have urban containment policies that severely restrict building on their periphery.

It noted by 2004, all of the major markets of Australia had become severely unaffordable. "National price-to-income ratios were 3.0 or less in Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States until the late 1980s or 1990s.

"However since that time, housing affordability has deteriorated significantly and by 2019 national median multiples had increased to 4.0 in the United States and Canada, nearly 6.0 in Australia and 7.0 in New Zealand," it noted.

<h2>Recently listed properties:</h2>

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The report assesses 92 major markets in metropolitan areas across eight nations

jchancellor

2021 Demographia International survey ranks Australia among the most expensive housing markets

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<h1>Treasurer Joe Hockey's comments at today's press conference - in complete context - on Sydney housing affordability are published by Property Observer.</h1>
JOURNALIST:
Treasurer do you accept that housing in Sydney is unaffordable and the only way we’re going to make it affordable is if real house prices in real terms actually fall over the near term?
TREASURER:
No. Look, if housing were unaffordable in Sydney, no one would be buying it. People are purchasing housing in Sydney, it’s expensive. As a multiple of average weekly earnings it is expensive, it’s an expensive city to live in. It’s my home city, it’s an expensive city. But, having said that, you know a lot of people would much rather have their homes go up in value than fall in value. Why? Because when you take out a mortgage, the mortgage is against the assessed value of that particular point in time, whatever’s leftover is your equity in the property. If your equity builds in the property not only is that to your financial benefit, but it also gives you the opportunity to borrow against that if you choose to do so for a small business. A lot of small businesspeople are borrowing against the equity in their homes in order to start up their business or build their business. Now, to have increasing equity in a home is a good thing, that’s a very good thing. Interest rates are at record lows. So if property is proving unaffordable for people with interest rates at record lows, then they should think carefully about how much they really can borrow, because you should always plan on in this situation interest rates potentially going up over the long term.  So, you’ve got to be careful, it is a big financial risk to buy your own home. We want to make it easier. There are a suite of initiatives we have in place in regard to that, but most obviously, the best way to address inflated house prices in Sydney is to build more properties, build more properties.
JOURNALIST:
You say that housing is affordable, but what about for first home buyers who can’t get on the property ladder, those people that don’t have access to equity in other properties?
TREASURER:
Well there are a range of incentives that have been put in place by state governments and others in relation to first home buyers. The starting point for a first home buyer is to get a good job that pays good money. If you’ve got a good job and it pays good money and you have security in relation to that job, then you can go to the bank and you can borrow money and that’s readily affordable. More affordable than ever to borrow money for a first home now than it has ever been. But, the response for first home buyers is to build more properties. I know, it’s a difficult concept for some to get their heads around, supply and demand, but it’s not that complicated. If you increase supply to meet the demand, then obviously you won’t get the growth in property prices that you may have thought if you have less supply.
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Treasurer Joe Hockey on affordability - the risk, reward and reality when it comes to buying in Sydney

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/57114/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Australia’s housing stock is not meeting the demands of older Australians, according to a new report released by the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC).
The report features findings from a BCEC Housing Affordability Survey, which captures the housing experiences and affordability perceptions of more than 4,300 people across New South Wales, Western Australia and Queensland.
Older householders aged 55 years or over were asked a series of questions relating to downsizing, including motivations and barriers. Around 16 percent of those aged 55 to 64 and one-quarter of those aged 64 or over reported they had already downsized. The most commonly cited reasons for downsizing, as shown in the figure below, were to live in a smaller house that is easier to maintain and to reduce housing costs.
Older Australians want options that allow them to downsize in areas that suit their lifestyle. This includes being close to family and friends while having access to quality amenities.
Main reasons for downsizing
<h4><a href="/images/2016/06/14/image-20160606-26003-1j0d161.PNG" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></h4>
<img src="/images/2016/06/14/image-20160606-26003-1j0d161.PNG" alt="">
<h2>A growing mismatch between housing stock and demand</h2>
Among those aged 55 years or over who had not downsized, more than 80 percent said they would certainly do so in the future. However, around 40 percent of those who had not downsized felt there weren’t enough suitable or affordable housing options in the areas where they would choose to downsize.
Perceived barriers to downsizing
<h4><a href="/images/2016/06/14/image-20160606-26010-10q9jmn.PNG" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></h4>
<img src="/images/2016/06/14/image-20160606-26010-10q9jmn.PNG" alt="">
This identifies a mismatch between demand and existing housing stock. And it’s likely to get worse, with the proportion of older and lone-person households <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3236.0Main%20Features42011%20to%202036?opendocument&amp;tabname=Summary&amp;prodno=3236.0&amp;issue=2011%20to%202036&amp;num=&amp;view=">set to increase significantly</a> over the next 20 years.
Most of Australia’s dwelling stock is made up of separate houses with at least three bedrooms. Small dwellings with one or two bedrooms are still relatively scarce.
According to the 2011 Census, three-quarters of the nation’s dwelling stock is made up of separate houses, compared to just 14 percent flats, units or apartments. There are, however, some stark differences across cities.
Census data show that more than 25 percent of Sydney’s housing stock is made up of flats, units and apartments. Other cities lag behind. In Melbourne, only 15 percent of the housing stock are flats, units and apartments, in Brisbane 12 percent and in Perth only 9 percent.
Semi-detached, row or terraced houses provide smaller alternatives to the detached house. Yet, with the exception of Perth, the proportion of such dwellings is even lower than flats, units and apartments.
The lack of housing diversity compels older Australians to continue living in larger dwellings than they would prefer, and often for longer than they would prefer.
In Western Australia, where four out of every five dwellings are separate houses, more than one-quarter of households aged 55 years or over live in dwellings with three or more spare bedrooms.
<h2>So, what housing solutions are possible?</h2>
As population ageing drives a long-run demand for smaller dwellings, the mismatch between preferences and housing supply will grow unless a significant shift in the diversity of dwellings happens across the country.
This does not simply mean delivering more one-bedroom apartments. Increasing dwelling diversity takes time, planning and commitment. Strategic planning documents across the country recognise the need for change, yet the housing market in its current form appears unable to deliver diverse, affordable housing options on anything close to a sufficient scale.
The lack of suitable homes is not the only factor that discourages older Australians from downsizing. The BCEC Housing Affordability Survey shows that 58% of would-be older downsizers thought the costs of downsizing – such as stamp duty and real estate agent fees – were simply too high to make downsizing worthwhile.
Making downsizing less costly is likely to be “doubly beneficial”. This is because it would free up existing housing stock for younger families, thus revitalising an ageing housing stock, while allowing older households to reduce their housing costs. Stamp duty reforms targeted at older Australians, such as those already implemented in Victoria and the ACT, would remove a significant barrier to downsizing and potentially deliver benefits to the economy.
However, tax reforms must be accompanied by flexible housing solutions. These need to increase the supply of diverse housing forms, not just in terms of house type but also tenure, in the locations where older people want to live.
Older Australians want innovative solutions that offer more than traditional retirement housing options. Vertical villages, which offer activated internal corridors, flexible living spaces and areas to entertain the grandchildren, are starting to appear.
Alternative tenure options such as the “land rent” model create housing solutions in which costs are reduced because the occupant does not need to buy the land. Such models represent forward thinking, but existing policy settings present major challenges to such innovation.
Governments need to work with industry to deliver solutions that meet the housing needs of older Australians. These solutions are required now more than ever.
 
Rachel Ong is deputy director, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre, Curtin University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rachel-ong-113482" target="_blank">here.</a>
Alan Duncan is director, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre and Bankwest Research Chair in Economic Policy, Curtin University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alan-duncan-100759" target="_blank">here</a>.
Steven Rowley is director - Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute - Curtin Research Centre, Curtin University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-rowley-201914" target="_blank">here</a>.
All are authors for The Conversation. 
The authors would like to thank Amity James, of Curtin University, for her contributions to the administration and analysis of the BCEC Housing Affordability Survey.
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Lack of housing choice frustrates would-be downsizers

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SPONSORED POST
When it comes to the ideal location for an investment property, you'd be forgiven for running with the assumption that the closer to the city, the better.
Close proximity to the CBD does, of course, provide a range of well-known benefits and potential benefits. Among some of them are luxury city views, convenience in multiple forms and vibrancy.
But as technology and the public transport infrastructure of our cities progresses, the advantages of city living depreciate. Technological interconnectivity means that working from home has become not only possible, but common. And as things progress even further, the everyday limitations that make city living desirable will be solved (or at least mitigated) by other means.
Here are some of the things you might want to think about when deciding whether or not, to invest in an outer-suburbs property.
Safety and insurance
The first thing to consider is the safety of the property (and the appropriate insurance implications). Properties in rural areas are more vulnerable to natural disasters such as floods and fires, which can mean higher insurance costs.
Consider the surrounding landscape of your property and be sure to factor the insurance into your calculations.
Demand
If you’re going to invest in a property, you want to make sure that you keep the property occupied with happy tenants. In order for that to happen, there needs to be a decent level of demand for properties of that particular kind.
As of right now, nearly a third of Australians live outside of major cities. People seeking a better work / life balance, a slower pace and some clean air have plenty of reasons to seek country accommodation.
Before investing in a property, garner a clear understanding of the area’s rental yields, population growth rate and median income. Figures like this will help determine whether or not the property is lucrative.
Profitability
Closely related to demand (and probably the most important consideration for an investment property), profitability can be determined by a number of factors. Median property price, for example, is a strong place to start.
The median property price in Sydney recently reached $1,000,000 for the first time in history. That's quite a large number for first-time home buyers to afford – and as property prices climb higher and higher, it becomes even harder for new blood to enter the market.
As an investor, it might pay more to target said new blood. If that's the case, maybe a country home selling for $400,000 or less is exactly what you need!
Mortgage House
At Mortgage House, we're no strangers to the homeowner's journey. It's a long (but rewarding) one.
But don't worry, we can help with that.
If you're thinking of buying a home, you can contact us for advice about the best options for you when it comes to your mortgage. The cost of your mortgage can drastically affect your financial planning, so it pays to speak to the experts about it.
<a href="https://www.mortgagehouse.com.au/mortgage-house-contact-us" target="_blank">Click here to speak to us!</a>
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Should your investment property be close to the city? Mortgage House

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/80965/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
A new report by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) reveals, for the first time, the extent of housing need in Australia.
An estimated 1.3 million households are in a state of housing need, whether unable to access market housing or in a position of rental stress. This figure is predicted to rise to 1.7 million by 2025.
To put it in perspective, 1.3 million is around 14% of Australian households. This national total includes 373,000 households in New South Wales, where the number is expected to increase by 80% to more than 670,000 by 2025 under the baseline economic assumptions of the modelling.
The first graph below shows the average annual level of housing need to 2025. The second, showing the percentages of households, permits a direct comparison by state. NSW and Queensland are in the worst position. The ACT is calculated to have the lowest proportional level of need.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%2011.17.48%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%2011.17.48%20AM.png" alt="">
 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%2011.18.59%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%2011.18.59%20AM.png" alt="">
What does this mean for households in need?
Housing need is defined as:
… the aggregate of households unable to access market-provided housing or requiring some form of housing assistance in the private rental market to avoid a position of rental stress.
This includes potential households that are unable to form because their income is too low to afford to rent in the private rental market. These households would traditionally rely on public housing and community housing to meet their needs. However, more and more are being forced into the private rental market, paying housing costs they are unable to afford without making significant sacrifices.
To 2025, on average 190,000 potential households in NSW will be unable to access market housing in a given year. The graph below is the most revealing as it illustrates the gap between affordable housing demand and supply.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%2011.19.54%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%2011.19.54%20AM.png" alt="">
The lack of social housing and subsidised rental housing prevents such households forming under affordable conditions. Many will manage to form but will have to spend well over 30% of their income on housing costs to do so, putting them in a position of financial stress.
The results also reveal the increasing pressure the affordable housing shortfall places on the housing assistance budget, notably Commonwealth Rent Assistance.
The absence of a significant new supply of affordable housing – there has been no large-scale program since the National Rental Affordability Scheme (NRAS) began in 2008 – has left state governments trying to find ways to plug the affordability gap.
Responses have been largely on the demand side, such as first home buyer concessions recently announced in NSW. But such incentives are no use for low-income households. To help them, intervention needs to be on the supply side.
How does Australia compare?
The AHURI research built on ideas emerging from research into housing need in the UK. It revealed interesting differences between the two countries.
UK government policy prior to 2010 emphasised the role of the planning system in helping to substantially increase affordable housing supply. This reflected evidence from England and Scotland that found a link between low levels of new housing supply and higher and rising house prices.
In this project, we found plenty of evidence of deteriorating housing affordability in Australia. But we did not find a particularly strong relationship between housing supply and  price growth. This might reflect how other drivers of deteriorating housing affordability are more important in Australia – such as tax incentives for investors.
These findings suggest we need to look more closely at how new supply and investment demand interact, and in what circumstances boosting new supply is likely to improve affordability.
From our analysis of individuals’ labour market circumstances and incomes, it was also clear that the Australian workforce has not escaped the erosion of secure, full-time employment opportunities seen in other countries.
The combination of widespread insecure, part-time employment opportunities, high housing costs and low supply of rented social housing means the housing of many working Australians is extremely precarious.
How was the research done?
The research modelled housing need at the state and territory level to 2025 using an underlying set of economic assumptions and interrelated models on household formation, housing markets, labour markets and tenure choice.
The models were underpinned by data from the Housing, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and house price and rent data.
This research delivers, for the first time in Australia, a consistent and replicable methodology for assessing housing need. It can be used to inform resource allocation and simulate the impact of policy decisions on housing outcomes.
The intention is to further develop the model to assess housing need at the level of local government areas.
So, what are the policy implications?
The scale of the affordable housing shortfall requires major action from federal and state governments.
NRAS had its problems but at least delivered a supply of below-market housing. Australia cannot rely on the private sector to deliver housing for low-income households without some form of government subsidy as it is simply not profitable to do so.
The question is what government is going to be prepared, or even able, to spend big to close the affordable housing supply gap?
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-rowley-201914">Steven Rowley </a>is Director, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Curtin Research Centre, Curtin University.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chris-leishman-391783">Chris Leishman</a> is Professor of Housing Economics, University of Adelaide.
Both are authors for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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Affordable housing shortfall leaves 1.3m households in need and rising – study

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GUEST OBSERVER
Those who value “multiculturalism” and “access to the city” as key markers of a vibrant, progressive city will find these attributes in the Melbourne suburb of Footscray.
Yet, at the same time, they will find them under threat through the forces of gentrification. These are the same forces that have, through time, transformed former “slums” such as Carlton, Fitzroy, Abbotsford and Richmond into “blue-ribbon” suburbs of Melbourne.
It is, inevitably, Footscray’s turn because of its proximity to the CBD. Many outside stakeholders have aspirations and conceptualised visions for the suburb.
These emerged at the turn of the millennium, when the Melbourne 2030 plan and its subsequent updates envisioned a new “central activity area” in Footscray.
A suburb in transition
In response to the metropolitan plans, substantial changes have been made to the council’s planning framework. New schemes allow for developments up to 25 storeys high along the banks of the Maribyrnong River and over the Footscray Market site.
With public investment to match, further catalysts of urban renewal were the substantial upgrade of Footscray railway station and other investments to polish the public realm.
Following the script of urban intensification, apartments have mushroomed in and around the suburb – with developers and investors colluding to rewrite and perpetuate new narratives.
In a tacit attempt to dilute Footcray’s shadier reputation, the suburb has been reimagined as the next “St Kilda” or “Fitzroy”. This has helped to raise unit prices and attract different types of residents and businesses.
These market-led models of urban development and renewal discount Footscray’s existing socio-physical and cultural landscape. The result is exclusionary, culturally homogeneous places and spaces. These reflect the fundamental top-down global and cultural drivers of the city in the race to climb (or, in Melbourne’s case, retain) liveability rankings.
On the contrary, multiculturalism is essentially a bottom-up phenomenon: ethnic enclaves form organically in the process of migrants settling down and “accessing the city” economically, socially and culturally. This is something that cannot be planned nor designed, but can be assisted.
In fact, Footscray has been an exemplar of this practice. The suburb’s absorption of immigrants has given rise to distinct Vietnamese, South Asian and Horn of African commercial precincts.
Improvement or displacement?
Formal agents of change (politicians, administrators, planners, designers) seem to view this urban condition as a temporary, transitional state to be eventually “improved”. They are often narrowly focused on physical and economic benchmarks.
The changes are compounded by a contemporary housing affordability crisis. Footscray has been attracting a local migration of first-home buyers and “hipsters” searching for more affordable properties and rent.
One might argue that this is a recipe for a multiculturalism where differences co-exist – or at least are juxtaposed. That might be true, if only the local white gentrification culture does not displace the minority cultures and socio-economic groups, as is happening to newer outer centres such as Sunshine and Broadmeadows.
Footscray’s beating heart
Critically, many may not realise the tenuous vulnerability of the place.
Last December, Footscray lost one of its most substantial cultural institutions, when the Little Saigon Market burnt down due to an electrical fault. Befitting current development trends, there are now plans for the site to become a 12-storey “mixed use” apartment building.
Both Footscray Market and Little Saigon Market are the key urban centres that sustain the commercial, culinary and cultural life of the suburb. However, Footscray Market is wholly owned by an individual – and there has been a proposal to replace it with a ubiquitous “mixed use” tower-on-podium development. This would (and still could) hasten the demise of Footscray’s distinctive character.
This is in stark contrast to the hundreds of millions of dollars being invested in Melbourne’s Queen Victoria Market and other markets. Established during the European colonisation and migration period, these have accrued heritage status. This arguably implies that Footscray’s markets are “minority markets” for lesser sub-cultures.
Significantly, in Footscray, multiculturalism and access to the city are lived experiences. The spatial and social implications are reflected in the ways buildings are used and goods are sold on the street.
A walk along Leeds Street reveals the finest scale of commercial practice by individual vendors. They hand-carry or push their cultural-specific wares on shopping trolleys – tactics to camouflage their subversive practices in busy pedestrian areas.
A different story
What we advocate for here is that there are alternatives to the ubiquitous developer-driven urbanisation; these make it possible to carefully consider the local communities directly affected by developments.
The City of Melbourne’s complex negotiations between developers and key stakeholders at Queen Victoria Market offers a potential local model. There’s no reason this model could not be carefully applied and extended to Footscray’s markets.
Complementing the markets, Footscray’s small and fine-scaled businesses should be recognised as alternative models of urban vibrancy and participative, socioeconomic resilience.
These are highly interrelated practices, which help mitigate socio-economic inequity, while meaningfully contributing to and showcasing Melbourne’s multiculturalism.
Sidh Sintusingha is senior lecturer in Landscape Architecture, University of Melbourne and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sidh-sintusingha-352893" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Footscray: When a suburb's turn for gentrification comes

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The Federal Treasurer, Scott Morrison’s, draft legislation to assist with housing affordability for Australians is a positive move.
The key initiative is to enable investors to obtain a 60% capital gains discount for investment in affordable rental housing. 
This will encourage Managed Investment Trusts (MITs) to invest in affordable housing as a quality investment product with a positive rate of return.
The Treasurer has restricted MITs to only acquiring affordable housing and therefore eliminating investment in general residential property. The Urban Taskforce believes this is a good policy to encourage additional investment in affordable housing.
Affordable housing and housing affordability are complex issues. There are many more initiatives required by various levels of government to make a serious impact on housing affordability. Importantly these initiatives must have to provide sufficient incentives to the private sector development industry to generate enough take-up to make a real impact on the provision of more affordable housing.
The Urban Taskforce has proposed a modification to the NSW State Environmental Planning Policy for Affordable Rental Housing 2009 that could lead to a large supply of affordable housing. 
The current SEPP does not have sufficient incentive for private developers to take up the provision of affordable homes. What is needed is a 20% floor space uplift to provide 20% of a housing project as affordable homes over a 10 year period. 
We estimate that this could add 40,000 affordable rental dwellings over a 10 year period.
Initiatives that provide incentives to invest in, or develop, affordable housing will ensure a long-term, sustainable supply of affordable housing. Mechanisms that deter investment – such as affordable housing levies, taxes, or mandatory targets, only increase the cost of housing production and deter supply. 
The Urban Taskforce is willing to work proactively with all levels of government on mechanisms to encourage supply and investment.
CHRIS JOHNSON is chief executive officer of property development industry group Urban Taskforce and can be contacted <a href="https://www.urbantaskforce.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=97&amp;Itemid=126#.Vdaart55dFI" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Federal Treasurer’s affordable housing initiatives a positive move: Chris Johnson

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GUEST OBSERVER
Stop eating smashed avocado. Stop taking overseas holidays. Live with your parents, save harder and set your sights lower – why don’t you just buy an apartment? The advice to millennials about how to afford the Australian dream of home ownership is as gratuitous as it is patronising.
New research from CoreLogic shows that owning an apartment as a “forever home” is largely a myth in Australia and not much of an option for millennials who are increasingly dependent on their parents for help to enter the property market.
The Perceptions of Housing Affordability Report identifies that while 72 percent of us live in houses, apartment dwellers make up just 15 percent of the population. Add to that duplexes and townhouses and the number of people living in shared title accommodation is still small at 28 percent. 
The data also shows there are just over 152,600 units currently under construction across Australia – 85 percent more than the decade average and virtually double the 30 year average. 
So why don’t millennials just buy into this cheaper housing stock?
There are multiple reasons. The first is that the data also shows that apartments – despite their lower prices when compared to houses - are still significantly more expensive and harder to afford than 15 years ago. The price to income ratio of apartment ownership across Australia is currently 6.6x income for units now compared with 4.8x 15 years ago. Back in 2002, it was not unheard of to snap up a unit within 10km from the city for under $300,000. Now, in Sydney and Melbourne, the figure is closer to $750,000.
The second reason is that saving for a unit is equally difficult. It now takes 1.3 years of average annual income to save the deposit for an apartment compared to 1 year back in 2002. And that’s not “just put some money aside for a year and a bit”. That means put every cent you get into a saving account until you reach 20 percent (and then save some more to cover stamp duty and other costs). You can see therefore for those who want to eat, put petrol in their car or have a roof over their head in the meantime, the time it takes to pull a deposit together can blow out.
According to the CoreLogic research, the biggest impediments preventing Millennials from buying a property are most likely to be finding the deposit (49 percent), interest rates (44 percent) and a combination of certainty of employment and getting loan approval (41 percent each).
The third reason is that the majority of stock currently under construction is not actually intended as long term occupancy. Most is high rise units and most developments currently under construction are one and two bedrooms, making it more suitable to investors and singles, rather than young families. 
Developers are building to where the demand is. Investors have historically comprised of 33 percent to 40 percent of housing demand however the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows investors comprised closer to 50 percent of new mortgage demand nationally. 
Despite the emphasis on “rentvesting”, Millennials are the least likely to own an investment property (12 percent) compared to 19 percent for Gen X and 18 percent for Baby Boomers. Investment properties are also more likely to be owned by families with children living at home. It turns out investment properties are most likely to be owned by families with children aged 5-17 (22 percent), indicating that property is an important family investment strategy.  
So simply legislating to reduce the numbers of investors in the market so owner occupiers can step in, needs to be carefully managed. Investors affect the availability and therefore cost of rental accommodation and as we move through an unprecedented ‘boom’ in apartment construction, investors play a critical role in absorbing new unit supply and ensuring off the plan sales transition smoothly to settlement.  
All of this means that cashed up Baby Boomers and late Gen Xers, who are more likely to have paid off their home, more likely to have significant equity that they are looking to invest, and more capable of raising a deposit are the property winners if they are capable of servicing a mortgage. 
But there is no such thing as a free smashed avocado breakfast. The cost of this bounty will are children who stay at home longer with 21% not expecting now to move out until they are at least 30 and a further 38 percent expecting to move out between 25-29. 
Waiting til Mum and Dad either pop off the perch and leave them an inheritance, or stump up to help them fund their move, is now a real option for 30% of Australians, meaning housing affordability really is becoming a life/death issue.
 
Kylie Davis is the head of property services marketing at CoreLogic and the author of the CoreLogic Perceptions of Housing Affordability Report 2017. She can be contacted <a href="https://solutionsblog.rpdata.com/author/kylie-davis/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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