Home Loan Arrears

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Australia's 30+ day mortgage arrears will rise in the second quarter of the 2021 after only a small rise in the last quarter of 2020 as expected, Fitch Ratings says in a report.

Fitch expects losses to stay low due to the recovery in home prices.

The 30+ day arrears in 4Q20 rose by 2bp to 1.01% from the previous quarter, as borrowers struggling with the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic continued to take up payment deferrals offered by Australian lenders. 

The agency reported it does not expect the Dinkum RMBS index to "increase significantly" until the payment deferral periods ends on 31 March 2021.

The banking regulator has advised that deferrals do not need to be treated as arrears. 

Dinkum transactions had 1.7% of borrowers under payment deferrals at end-4Q20, 310bp lower than the previous quarter. 

Conditional prepayment rates for transactions issued by non-bank lenders have recently increased to 23%, significantly above those issued by banks, likely due to borrowers refinancing to take advantage of low fixed-interest rates offered by some banks.

Fitch expects prices to continue rising, supported by record low mortgage rates, along with a lower supply of housing stock and government incentives for housing, particularly for first-home buyers.

Losses in RMBS transactions from the sale of collateral property were the lowest in the last decade, with lenders' mortgage insurance payments and excess spread being sufficient to cover principal shortfalls in all transactions during the quarter. 

Fitch's Dinkum RMBS Index tracks arrears and performance of mortgages underlying public Australian prime RMBS.
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The growth in arrears isn't due until the second quarter of the 2020-2021 financial year

jchancellor

Arrears will stay low in mid-2021 given home price rises: Fitch

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Australian prime home-loan arrears increased in November, according to S&amp;P Global Ratings' latest data.

The Standard &amp; Poor's Performance Index (SPIN) for Australian prime mortgages edged up to 1.16% in November from 1.07% a month earlier. 

The SPIN for Australian nonconforming mortgages also increased in November, rising to 3.31% from 3.22% the previous month.

“COVID-19's true effect on debt serviceability is emerging as fiscal stimulus measures taper off and borrowers exit mortgage-relief periods,” it advised.

“We expect the level of granted mortgage deferral to plateau in the coming months because the remaining borrowers under such arrangements are more likely to face more protracted debt-serviceability pressures."

“We expect these borrowers to transition to formal arrears management and hardship arrangements at the end of mortgage-relief periods.”

The rise in arrears in November was tipped to continue in the coming months as fiscal stimulus measures taper off and mortgage-relief periods expire, “unmasking the true extent of arrears.”

However historically low interest rates, improving jobs growth, and a recovery in property prices will temper arrears increases, it advised.

“Property price growth will help debt serviceability by enhancing borrowers' refinancing prospects, a common way for borrowers to self-manage their way out of financial stress,” it concluded.
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The Standard & Poor's Performance Index (SPIN) for Australian prime mortgages edged up to 1.16% in November from 1.07% a month earlier

Australian prime home loan arrears increased at the end of 2020

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Commonwealth Bank reported a much lower home loan arrears profile as compared to many of its peers today.
144,000 borrowers opted to take mortgage holidays, according to the trading update, equating to $50 billion in mortgage balances. 
S&amp;P Global also reported that Prime SPIN mortgage arrears were flat in March 2020, with 30-day arrears unchanged at 1.41 per cent. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_45Io7Peg6E/XrumPFDZniI/AAAAAAAA1to/N14QcbHAMyQsttMIO1EJCxl4KT7jl4fRwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/S1.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1380">
There were minor increases in mortgage arrears in the most populous states, but these were offset by a decline in the Australian Capital Territory, where 30-plus day arrears declined to just 1.04 per cent. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IliIkf5vbLk/XrumPFe-0CI/AAAAAAAA1tk/tzLdj1PwqFYwBFikyIgD8Ho5pgy-AITyQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/S2.jpg" width="640" height="358" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1425">
Total 30-day arrears were higher for owner-occupiers, increasing to 1.73 per cent, but remained lower for investors at 1.46 per cent. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LpY-SE5SvNY/XrumPGtcbJI/AAAAAAAA1ts/OZWsiORV0ZUqfj4u_z440KBK0h9boHKUACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/S3.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1389">
These figures only run to the end of March, so expect to see more signs of duress in the figures in the coming months. 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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Home Loan Arrears

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