electric cars

EXPERT OBSERVER

This week, the NSW government announced almost A$500 million towards boosting the uptake of electric vehicles. In its new <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/initiative/nsw-governments-electric-vehicle-strategy">electric vehicle strategy</a>, the government will waive stamp duty for cars under $78,000, develop more charging infrastructure, offer rebates to 25,000 drivers, and more.

Given the transport sector is Australia&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/6686d48f-3f9c-448d-a1b7-7e410fe4f376/files/nggi-quarterly-update-mar-2019.pdf">second-largest polluter</a>, it&rsquo;s a good thing Australian governments are starting to plan for a transition to electric vehicles (EVs).

But transitioning from cities full of petrol-guzzling vehicles to cities full of electric ones won&rsquo;t address all of the environmental and social problems associated with car dependence and mass manufacturing.

So, let&rsquo;s look at these problems in more detail, and why public transport really is the best way forward.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7633 project_image_fid=32168]

<h2>Mounting disadvantage and health issues</h2>

EVs do have environmental advantages over conventional vehicles. In particular, they generate less carbon emissions during their lifetime. Of course, much of the emissions reductions will depend on how much electricity <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-the-environmental-footprint-of-electric-versus-fossil-cars-124762">comes from renewable sources</a>.

But carbon emissions are only one of the many problems associated with the dominance of private cars as a form of mobility in cities.

Let&rsquo;s start with a few of the social issues. This includes the huge amount of <a href="https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2013-11/apo-nid59916.pdf">space devoted to car driving</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.10.044">parking</a> in our neighbourhoods. This can <a href="https://theconversation.com/reclaiming-the-streets-we-all-can-have-a-say-in-the-new-normal-after-coronavirus-137703">crowd out other forms of land use</a>, including other more sustainable forms of mobility such as walking and cycling.

There are the financial and mental health costs of <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-city-workers-average-commute-has-blown-out-to-66-minutes-a-day-how-does-yours-compare-120598">congestion</a>, as well, with Australian city workers spending, on average, 66 minutes getting to and from work each day. <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/statistics/safety">Injuries and fatalities on roads</a> are also increasing, and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11524-009-9433-9">inactivity and isolation</a> associated with driving can impact our physical health.

Car-dependent cities also contribute to <a href="https://trid.trb.org/view/1154961">disadvantage for people who don&rsquo;t have access to cars</a>, and uneven <a href="https://apo.org.au/node/449">financial vulnerability</a> associated with the high costs of car ownership and use.

Indeed, some of these problems could be made worse &mdash; for instance, subsidies for EVs could end up favouring wealthier people who can afford new cars.

<h2>Mining for resources</h2>

A mass global uptake of EVs will generate major environmental problems, too. Most concerning of these is the use of finite mineral resources required for their construction, and the environmental and labour conditions of their extraction.

This was recently highlighted in a <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions">recent report by the International Energy Agency</a>. As the agency&rsquo;s executive director Fatih Birol said, there&rsquo;s a

<blockquote>
looming mismatch between the world&rsquo;s strengthened climate ambitions and the availability of critical minerals that are essential to realising those ambitions.
</blockquote>

Minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and copper are key ingredients required to make EVs.

As the report noted, EVs use double the amount of copper than conventional vehicles. EVs also require considerable amounts of lithium, cobalt and graphite that are hardly required at all for conventional vehicles. And it expects demand for lithium to grow 40-fold between 2020 and 2040, driven by EV production to meet climate targets.

<figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" /></a>

<figcaption>There are better ways to cut transport emissions than greater uptake of electric vehicles. Shutterstock</figcaption>
</figure>

There is <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/speed-of-green-energy-shift-triggers-supply-alarm-20210506-p57pi5">considerable discussion</a> of Australia&rsquo;s natural advantage as a supplier of some of these minerals, as we have large reserves of lithium and rare-earth metals beneath parts of the continent.

But before governments and mining bodies rush to exploit these reserves, they need to ensure much more is done to avoid the injustices perpetrated against Traditional Owners and their lands and heritage. The recent appalling <a href="https://theconversation.com/rio-tinto-just-blasted-away-an-ancient-aboriginal-site-heres-why-that-was-allowed-139466">destruction at Juukan Gorge</a> by Rio Tinto&rsquo;s iron ore operation is just one example of this.

<a href="https://theconversation.com/critical-minerals-are-vital-for-renewable-energy-we-must-learn-to-mine-them-responsibly-131547">Mining also has its own environmental problems</a>, such as land clearing and associated biodiversity loss, the pollution and contaminants it produces, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/arent-we-in-a-drought-the-australian-black-coal-industry-uses-enough-water-for-over-5-million-people-137591">intensive water use</a>.

The conditions of extracting these critical minerals in other parts of the world are dire. There&rsquo;s the oppressive working conditions <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/dec/18/how-the-race-for-cobalt-risks-turning-it-from-miracle-metal-to-deadly-chemical">in cobalt mining in the Democratic Republic of the Congo</a>, the conflict over <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/14/electric-cost-lithium-mining-decarbonasation-salt-flats-chile">Indigenous rights in Chile&rsquo;s lithium mining areas</a>, and environmental destruction associated with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/gallery/2015/apr/15/rare-earthenware-a-journey-to-the-toxic-source-of-luxury-goods">mining rare earth minerals in China</a>.

<figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="Lithium mine with brine pools" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=565&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=565&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=565&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" /></a>

<figcaption>Mining for rare-earth metals such as lithium comes with enormous environmental impacts. Shutterstock</figcaption>
</figure>

<h2>Broadening ideas about transport</h2>

To focus on these problems is not to suggest the new policies on electric vehicles are unimportant, or that they don&rsquo;t stand to have some positive environmental impact.

The point is private EVs are not a solution to the combined challenges of reducing our urban environmental footprints and making better cities for all, and that they have their own problems.

Instead, we should develop a good mass public transport system with extensive and frequent coverage. Alongside urban development with a more even distribution of jobs, services and opportunities, investing in better public transport could reduce car dependence in our cities.

This would have a range of environmental and social benefits: making more space available for people instead of machines, extending the benefits of mobility to people who can&rsquo;t or don&rsquo;t drive, and reducing demand for finite minerals.

Even fossil-fuelled public transport has fewer emissions than conventional car travel. Data from the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter8.pdf">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> shows the most fuel-efficient buses and trains generate less than half the carbon emissions per passenger kilometre of fuel-efficient cars. Of course, public transport powered by renewables will be even better.

<figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="Trams on Swanston Street" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=566&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=566&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=566&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" /></a>

<figcaption>Melbourne&rsquo;s tram network is the biggest in the world. Shutterstock</figcaption>
</figure>

But as things stand, we are far from having such a city. The benefits of good public transport and public services are <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1068/a140008g">unevenly distributed across our cities</a>.

In Sydney, for example, there are significant investments in new public transport infrastructure in some parts of the city, such as <a href="https://www.sydneymetro.info/west/project-overview">Metro West</a> and the recently completed North West Metro. There are <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/entire-nsw-rail-network-to-go-green-by-2025-smaller-ferries-to-go-electric-20210610-p58013.html">welcome commitments to reduce emissions</a> in that sector, too.

But we&rsquo;re a long way from planning new developments and redevelopments to make public transport a viable alternative to cars. The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-18/western-sydney-urban-sprawl-lesson-for-other-australian-cities/100072140">lack of public transport infrastructure in newly constructed, master-planned</a> estates on Sydney&rsquo;s urban fringe is the most glaring example.

Ultimately, it&rsquo;s important that a transition to electric vehicles doesn&rsquo;t dominate the discussion we need to have about urban transport.

Our challenge is to simultaneously reduce the carbon footprint of different forms of transport, while also thinking much more broadly about the sustainability and justice of the system of mobility that&rsquo;s so central to daily life in our cities.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163247/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" width="1" />

&nbsp;

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cramming-cities-full-of-electric-vehicles-means-were-still-depending-on-cars-and-thats-a-huge-problem-163247">original article</a>.

This week, the NSW government announced almost A$500 million towards boosting the uptake of electric vehicles

max.kwok_55688

Cramming cities full of electric vehicles means we’re still depending on cars — and that’s a huge problem

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-11/sa-to-introduce-electric-vehicle-user-charge/12869302">South Australian</a> and <a href="https://www.drive.com.au/news/victoria-to-tax-electric-and-plug-in-hybrid-vehicles-from-2021-124619?trackLink=SMH1">Victorian</a> governments have announced, and <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/motoring/motoring-news/electric-car-tax-spreads-to-new-states/news-story/172ac67ccd8974566e3c65dc26c07048">New South Wales</a> is considering, road user charges on electric vehicles. This policy has drawn scorn from <a href="https://nb.tai.org.au/no_ev_tax?recruiter_id=194711">environmental advocates</a> and <a href="https://thedriven.io/2020/11/21/shameful-victoria-follows-south-australia-and-imposes-electric-car-road-tax/">motor vehicle lobbyists</a> who fear it will slow the uptake of less-polluting vehicles. But, from a longer-term transport policy perspective, a distance-based road user charge on electric vehicles is an important step forward.
Superficially, a charge on electric vehicle use seems misguided. Road sector emissions are the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.pnas.org/content/107/8/3382">worst contributors to climate change</a>. Electric vehicles powered by clean energy offer the promise of near-zero emissions.
As electric vehicle and renewable energy costs decline we can expect a shift to <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Planning_and_Forecasting/Inputs-Assumptions-Methodologies/2020/CSIRO-DER-Forecast-Report">full electrification of urban vehicles over the next 30 years</a>. Surely accelerating this transition is an urgent climate task?
The downside lies not in the carbon benefits of these vehicles, but in their use as private passenger transport in congested urban areas and <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-new-pm-wants-to-bust-congestion-here-are-four-ways-he-could-do-that-102249">the costs</a> this use imposes on cities. As renewable energy becomes cheaper, the marginal cost of every kilometre driven is likely to decline. As driving becomes cheaper, more of it is likely to occur.
More driving means more congestion. Inevitably, that increases demand for increasingly expensive road projects, such as Sydney’s WestConnex, or Melbourne’s Westgate Tunnel and North East Link. It certainly will run against the recognition in urban plans such as <a href="https://www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/">Plan Melbourne</a> that we must shift to alternative transport modes.
If we don’t have a pricing regime that accounts for the cost of car use in cities, the transition to electric vehicles is likely to work against the wider goals of urban and transport policy.
 
How would distance-based charging work?
Many urban transport policy advocates have called for distance-based road-user charging to be imposed on all vehicles in cities. This sounds great in theory, but in practice is difficult for technical and political reasons of privacy and surveillance. Such concerns will diminish over time as cars increasingly incorporate automated <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telematics">telematics</a> that necessarily track their movement.
Distance-based road-user charging efficiently matches road use to its costs – of infrastructure, congestion, noise, pollution and deaths. It improves on fuel excise, which drivers can nearly completely evade by using a highly efficient vehicle. It also goes beyond tolling to fund major roads, which typically apply only to specific links.
Second, road-user charging can be varied in response to demand that exceeds road capacities. Higher rates can be applied at peak times to ensure free-flowing traffic and shift travel to other times and modes. Various taxation reviews, including the 2009 <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-10/afts_final_report_part_2_vol_2_consolidated.pdf">Henry Taxation Review</a> and <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/productivity-review/report/productivity-review-supporting9.pdf">Productivity Commission</a> reports, have promoted such policies.
Exactly how big would the disincentive be?
Would imposing such charges on electric vehicles retard their uptake?
Based on our work with <a href="https://www-sciencedirect-com.ezproxy.lib.rmit.edu.au/science/article/pii/S0966692320309443?utm_campaign=elsOnboarding_Published&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_dgroup=STMJ_AUTH_SERV_PUBLISHED&amp;utm_acid=79567271&amp;SIS_ID=&amp;dgcid=elsOnboarding_Published&amp;CMX_ID=&amp;utm_in=DM82577&amp;utm_source=AC_">ABS Census journey-to-work data</a>, in Melbourne the average daily round-trip commuting distance by car is about 25 kilometres. The proposed Victorian charge is 2.5 cents per kilometre. Thus, in Melbourne the average daily commuter’s road user charge is likely to be 63 cents – $3.13 for a typical five-day working week. Over a 48-week working year that totals A$150, hardly a large sum for most people.
By comparison, a commuter in a conventional vehicle with the average current fuel efficiency of 10.9 L/100km will use about 2.73 litres of fuel on which they pay 42.3 cents per litre in fuel excise. That’s about $1.15 a day, or $5.75 a week.
The average tax saving for electric vehicles compared to conventional vehicles will be about 2.1 cents per kilometre. Electric vehicle drivers will be taxed about 53 cents a day, or $2.64 a week, less for their car work travel. They’ll be about $126 a year better off.
Commuting trips make up about 25% of car use, so electric car users’ overall savings are likely to be even greater.
It is difficult to see how such savings on excise tax are a disincentive to electric vehicle uptake. Fears of a “<a href="https://medium.com/@TheAustraliaInstitute/11-reasons-why-a-great-big-new-tax-on-electric-vehicles-is-a-bad-idea-6bf89c99e688">great big new tax</a>”, as the Australia Institute puts it, seem unfounded, as are concerns that road-user charges would “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2020/nov/22/tax-on-electric-vehicles-in-south-australia-and-victoria-would-slam-brakes-on-sales">slam the brakes on sales</a>”.
Let’s be clear, the big barrier is the upfront cost of electric vehicles, about <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/transport/projects/electricvehicles/about/compare">$10,000 more</a> than their conventional equivalents. Advocates for electric vehicles should focus on that difference, and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/22/well-be-left-behind-australias-electric-car-inertia-is-getting-it-nowhere">failures in Australian government policy</a>, not state road-user charges.
Why taxing actual road use matters
It needs to be recognised that, with lower marginal costs, electric vehicles are likely to be used more than conventional cars. That would increase pressure on urban road capacity. So while the new road-user charge of 2.5 cents per kilometre is flat across the time of day or the route driven, this will likely need to change.
Distance-based road-user charges have been politically controversial. Imposing a tiny charge on a <a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-car-sales-tripled-last-year-heres-what-we-can-do-to-keep-them-growing-131372">minority vehicle type</a> is an expedient way of introducing a needed reform. Fewer than <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/tourism-and-transport/motor-vehicle-census-australia/latest-release">1.8%</a> of vehicles in Australia are currently electric or hybrid. But as all cars become electric, distance-based road charges will become an increasingly powerful policy tool.
Thanks to advancing telematics, transport planners will eventually be able to impose variable road-user charging by time of day and route, similar to ride-hailing companies’ “surge” pricing. We could then apply novel approaches such as a cap-and-trade system. A city could allocate its motorists an annual kilometres quota, which is then traded to create a market for excess urban road use.
The private car could also be integrated into <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-mobility-as-a-service-maas-to-solve-our-transport-woes-some-things-need-to-change-105119">mobility-as-a-service</a> models.
Road-user charges could be regressive for people with few alternatives to the car. But telematic tracking could allow for lower charges for less affluent households in dispersed outer suburbs with few other options.
Beyond fuel, private cars have high environmental costs in <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/green-guide/buying-guides/car/environmental-impact/">steel, plastic, aluminium, glass and rubber use</a>. And <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-elephant-in-the-planning-scheme-how-cities-still-work-around-the-dominance-of-parking-space-87098">about one-third of our increasingly valuable urban space</a> is given over to cars in the form of roads and parking.
To reduce this demand on resources and space, car use could be priced to shift travel to, and fund, more sustainable and city-friendly modes such as public transport, walking and cycling. We could even price the car out of cities completely. The most environmentally sustainable car, after all, is no car at all.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150644/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jago-dodson-2359">Jago Dodson</a>, Professor of Urban Policy and Director, Centre for Urban Research, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tiebei-terry-li-1180745">Tiebei (Terry) Li</a>, Research Fellow, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/think-taxing-electric-vehicle-use-is-a-backward-step-heres-why-its-an-important-policy-advance-150644">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Think taxing electric vehicle use is a backward step? Here's why it's an important policy advance

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GUEST OBSERVATION
A total of 6718 electric vehicles were sold in Australia in 2019. That’s <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sharp-jump-in-electric-vehicle-sales-underscores-untapped-potential-20200202-p53wx3" target="_blank">three times</a> as many as in 2018, but it’s still small beer. More than <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">a million</a> fossil-fueled light vehicles (including SUVs and utes) were sold in the same period.
The sales figures were published in the wake of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51366123" target="_blank">announcement</a> that sales of petrol or diesel cars will be banned in the UK by 2035. The UK’s isn’t the only right-of-centre government to see the benefits of going electric — in 2016, New Zealand’s Conservative party introduced a wide-ranging program to encourage drivers to get off fossil fuels.
If Australia wants to head in the same direction, we can learn from what others have done.
Why should we go electric? And why don’t we?
The main argument for electric vehicles is often about cutting greenhouse gas emissions. But even leaving those aside, there are plenty of reasons to move away from oil as an energy source for transport, among them energy security, better health outcomes, and spending less money on petrol imports.
Australians have been slow to adopt electric cars, however. Our <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-electric-car-revolution-wont-happen-automatically-90442" target="_blank">previous research</a> indicates the top two reasons are the fear of not being able to find a fast recharger on long trips (“range anxiety”), and the higher purchase price of electric cars.
Obstacles are clearing
Range anxiety should be on the decline. Fast rechargers are <a href="https://myelectriccar.com.au/charge-stations-in-australia/" target="_blank">beginning to be installed</a> on major routes and higher capacity batteries are increasing vehicle range. In any case, the average distance travelled by Australians is just <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/9208.0" target="_blank">34.5km per day</a>.
Prices for electric vehicles are also on the way down. Bloomberg has <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-12/electric-vehicle-battery-shrinks-and-so-does-the-total-cost" target="_blank">predicted</a> that larger electric and fossil-fueled cars will cost about the same in Europe as soon as 2022.
Even when upfront costs for electric vehicles are higher, ongoing costs are generally much lower. An average Australian car travels 12,600 kilometres in a year, consuming <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/9208.0" target="_blank">1360.8 litres of fuel</a> at a cost of about A$2,000 (assuming fuel costs $1.50 per litre). For a typical electric car, the same amount of travel would cost $250 if recharging using off-peak electricity (assuming it costs 11 cents per kilowatt hour), or $567 if recharging with more expensive electricity (at 25 cents per kilowatt hour).
Lessons from New Zealand
In 2016, New Zealand’s Conservative transport minister Simon Bridges introduced a <a href="https://www.transport.govt.nz/multi-modal/climatechange/electric-vehicles/" target="_blank">suite of policies</a> to encourage electric, especially for passenger vehicles. Since then, electric vehicle sales have been doubling every 12 months.
In 2019, <a href="https://www.transport.govt.nz/mot-resources/vehicle-fleet-statistics/monthly-electric-and-hybrid-light-vehicle-registrations/" target="_blank">6545 light electric vehicles</a> were brought into New Zealand and registered for the first time. That’s not far off Australia’s tally, but in a population of 5 million compared to Australia’s 25 million.
So what did the Conservatives do to encourage motorists to go electric? They took advice from the experts and introduced a <a href="https://www.transport.govt.nz/multi-modal/climatechange/electric-vehicles/" target="_blank">multi-faceted group of measures</a>.
These included: exemption from the Road User Charge, worth about $600 per year; government procurement programs; installing a public recharging network; investment in a five-year promotional campaign including TV ads, online information and “ride and drive” events. They also established a leadership group across business and government and a funding scheme to encourage organisations to go electric.
In NZ they have just about thought of everything, even ensuring there is a facility to <a href="https://www.transport.govt.nz/multi-modal/climatechange/electric-vehicles/" target="_blank">recycle old batteries</a>.
But possibly the most important factor has been that the government has enabled imports of high-quality secondhand electric cars from Japan. In 2019 they accounted for more than half of electric vehicle sales (4155 used compared to 2390 new).
This measure enables motorists with lower budgets to buy electric vehicles. Our unpublished research shows electric vehicles have been especially popular with multicar families who use their EVs as much as possible as it’s so much cheaper than using petrol or diesel. When those happy customers tell their friends and family about how much better it is to drive electric, it’s an important feedback loop that helps people overcome their fear of change.
Maybe it’s time Australia took a “Leaf” out of the Kiwi book and got on board with some sensible policies and legislation to speed up the transition to electric cars.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131372/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gail-broadbent-421704" target="_blank">Gail Broadbent</a>, PhD candidate Faculty of Science UNSW, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/graciela-metternicht-159393" target="_blank">Graciela Metternicht</a>, Professor of Environmental Geography, School of Biological Earth and Environmental Sciences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-car-sales-tripled-last-year-heres-what-we-can-do-to-keep-them-growing-131372" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Electric car sales tripled last year. Here's what we can do to keep them growing

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Melbourne based developers <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/industry/icd-property">ICD Property</a> have partnered with Ohmie Go – a local Australian tech start-up – to launch the country’s premiere electric car-sharing service. Ohmie Go will be run out of ICD Property’s landmark development, Eq. Tower, a 63-storey residential building comprised of 633 apartments. The electric car-sharing service will join a long list of the award-winning building’s resident amenities, including karaoke rooms, games rooms, resort-style spa facilities and more.

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/1._eq._tower_high_density_development_exterior_look-up.jpg" rel="gallery-all" title="Eq. Tower exterior view. Credit: ICD Property"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="387" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/1._eq._tower_high_density_development_exterior_look-up.jpg?itok=xsVZNIEO" title="Eq. Tower exterior view. Credit: ICD Property" width="580"></a>

<figcaption>Eq. Tower exterior view. Credit: ICD Property</figcaption></figure><figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/14._eq._tower_high_density_development_swimming_pool.jpg" rel="gallery-all" title="Eq. Tower's luxury outdoor pool. Credit: ICD Property"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="387" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/14._eq._tower_high_density_development_swimming_pool.jpg?itok=n0rzqZ1C" title="Eq. Tower's luxury outdoor pool. Credit: ICD Property" width="580"></a>

<figcaption>Eq. Tower's luxury outdoor pool. Credit: ICD Property</figcaption></figure><figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/charging_in_the_city.jpeg" rel="gallery-all" title="One of the property's electric cars. Credit: ICD Property"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="435" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/charging_in_the_city.jpeg?itok=RwW9MNkr" title="One of the property's electric cars. Credit: ICD Property" width="580"></a>

<figcaption>One of the property's electric cars. Credit: ICD Property</figcaption></figure>Residents of <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/buildings/eq-tower-127-abeckett-street-melbourne">Eq. Tower</a> will have access to two brand new Kona electric vehicles, which can be booked, unlocked and billed via the Ohmie Go app. At this stage, the developers have identified that two cars would be sufficient to accommodate the requirements of Eq. Tower residents but will consider adding more should the demand for shared cars increase.

<blockquote>
“Providing Eq. Tower residents with an electric car-share service helps minimise the number of cars on city roads, alleviating traffic congestion. It also reduces the need for city dwellers to own a car and carpark within their building and all the costs associated with that. We’ve loved working with Ohmie and having the chance to back Australian entrepreneurs who have original ideas that can benefit the wider community in an area as important as sustainability.”
</blockquote>

- Matthew Khoo, ICD Property Managing Director

<h2>Why this is a fantastic initiative for apartment owners</h2>

In a recent Urban feature where we looked into the <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/what-will-the-future-of-cycle-culture-in-australia-look-like">future of bicycle infrastructure in Australia</a>, we discovered some interesting facts about car use.

<ul>
<li>A carpark in an apartment building can cost you <a href="https://reiv.com.au/policy-resources/latest-news/car-space-adds-more-than-%24100,000-to-apartment-pri">anywhere up to $100,000</a> on top of the apartment value</li>
	<li>A recent survey found that parking spaces outnumbered vehicles <a href="https://participate.melbourne.vic.gov.au/transportstrategy/car-parking">by approximately 40%</a>, with up to one-third vacant residential parking spots</li>
	<li>Our cars are generally parked <a href="https://www.reinventingparking.org/2013/02/cars-are-parked-95-of-time-lets-check">95% of the time</a>
</li>
	<li>It’s eco-conscious in so many ways. From the physical car’s low environmental footprint, through to the greener lifestyle of not owning a car</li>
</ul>
If you don’t own a car in Australia’s major cities, there are plenty of convenient transport options, which even involve car use, just not your own. Uber and car-sharing are two complementary modes of transport to the great public transport infrastructure in Australia’s cities, as well as cycling, walking and e-scooter/bikes.

<blockquote>
“The environmental benefits of existing car-sharing models in reducing the overall number of private vehicles on the road are already well established. If the car sharing is electric, then that further significantly contributes to reducing emissions, making a good thing even better. We believe that homes and transport solutions that are sustainable are overwhelmingly preferred by today’s consumers!”
</blockquote>

- Kyle Bolto, CEO of Ohmie

<h2>How much will the service cost</h2>

To rent a car will cost $15 per hour, with a daily cap of $79 – giving users the flexibility to take the car for a long weekend away, or just a quick school drop off.

Ohmie Go has been supported by automotive giants Hyundai, as well as JET Charge (Australia’s leading electric car recharging company), with plans to expand to other residential developments across Australia in the near future.

<h2>WHAT THEY SAY</h2>

<blockquote>
“We’re excited to be partnering with Ohmie Go for the launch of Australia’s first residential car-sharing service, and to provide Eq. Tower residents access to long-range, eco-friendly electrified driving with our stylish new Kona Electric SUV. It is Hyundai’s intention to establish leadership for eco cars in Australia and we are inspired by Ohmie Go’s equally ambitious plans to offer convenient and cost-effective mobility solutions across the country.” 
</blockquote>

- JW Lee, Hyundai Motor Company Australia CEO 

<blockquote>
“We have been waiting for years to team up with a company that recognises EVs as being both a mobility and energy asset. In Ohmie we found that company. They share our vision of offering a leading car-sharing business using 100% electric vehicles and also using the same vehicles to support our electricity grid, maximising that vehicle’s utilisation. We are super excited to be launching this world-class service with Ohmie Go, Hyundai and ICD Property”
</blockquote>

- Tim Washington, JET Charge CEO
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Olivia Round

Australia welcomes first ever electric car sharing service

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Perhaps buoyed by a 67% increase in the sale of electric cars in Australia last year – albeit coming off a low base – the federal government this month announced a A$6 million funding injection for a network of ultra-fast electric vehicle recharging stations.
Eighteen stations will be located no more than 200km apart on the main highway linking Brisbane, Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne and Adelaide. A further three stations will be built near Perth. All will be powered by renewable energy.
The network will address the issue of “range anxiety” – the fear that your car will run out of puff before reaching its destination – that particularly concerns motorists in a country as big as Australia. If your electric vehicle needs charging every 200km or so, that’s a lot of stopping between Sydney and Melbourne – and what if you can’t find a charging station?
The newest electric vehicles can cover up to 594km on a single charge. That improvement, together with the new charging network, will do much to address range anxiety. But as is often the case, the devil may be in the detail.
We don’t yet know how many fast-charging ports will be available at each station, but the number of ports is often limited due to high infrastructure costs. Even a fast charge takes about 15 minutes, so queues are likely. If a 10-minute wait at your local petrol station irritates you, imagine waiting an hour or more at an electric recharge station.
But the new network is undoubtedly a step forward, and such progress is necessary to keep electric-curious prospective motorists in the game. Of that 67% increase in electric vehicles sales mentioned earlier, the vast majority are business fleet vehicles. Private car buyers are still slow to take the plunge.
Australia is in the midst of a classic chicken-and-egg situation when it comes to growing the electric vehicle market, with the result that we’re well behind where we should be. Buyers want to see more infrastructure and perhaps some government-funded incentives (just look what a A$2,000 subsidy scheme did for the LPG market). But governments need to be confident that people will definitely buy electric cars before taking the plunge.
The power you’re supplying… it’s electrifying
Now that there’s some movement afoot from both parties, there’s a third player to consider: the electricity utilities.
If most electric vehicle owners plug in their vehicle when they get home from work of an evening – just as many of us let our phone run down during the day and then throw it on the kitchen-bench charger when we walk in the door – this could pose significant problems for the electricity grid.
According to one British estimate, as few as six cars charging at the same time on a street at peak times could lead to local brownouts (a drop in voltage supply). That might sound extreme, but it’s fair to say that daily electric car charging collectively shortens the life of electricity infrastructure such as transformers.
For this reason, my colleagues and I have researched smart charging strategies aimed at preventing the peak load period for electric car charging from overlapping with the residential peak.
The issue is even more acute when using domestic renewable energy, because of the “duck curve” – which shows the timing imbalance between peak demand and peak renewable energy production. As the name suggests, the graph is shaped like a duck.
The duck curve can be smoothed out with the help of power storage technologies such as batteries, and by behavioural change on the part of consumers (such as temporal load shifting).
The right network
Our model can also help electric vehicle owners find a nearby charging station with the least estimated waiting time and cost, in real time. This also opens up a new avenue for the electric utilities, which can work with charging service providers to adjust the prices at different charging locations so as to to distribute the load evenly across the charging network, and reduce waiting times into the bargain.
Unfortunately the utility companies don’t seem particularly interested yet, perhaps because it’s not an immediate problem. But it soon will be if the take-up of electric vehicles continues on its current trajectory.
It’s unfortunate that Australia is lagging behind other developed countries when it comes to electric vehicle adoption. But this can work in our favour if we learn from other countries and take a more systematic approach. A lot can be achieved through proper planning.
In Australia we’ll need to see continued and better marketing of both the advantages of reducing emissions (electric vehicles are essential for the long-term decarbonisation of the electricity and transport sectors), as well as clearer cost-benefit analysis of the economic savings that can be made through personal and government investment in electric vehicles.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105509/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Iftekhar Ahmad, Associate Professor, Edith Cowan University
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-new-electric-vehicle-highway-is-a-welcome-gear-shift-but-other-countries-are-still-streets-ahead-105509" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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The new electric vehicle highway is a welcome gear shift, but other countries are still streets ahead

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Relectrify, the electric car battery repurpose firm, has agreed terms on a new lease over an office and warehouse space at Cremorne in Melbourne’s inner eastern suburbs. 
The 290 sqm property at <a href="https://www.realcommercial.com.au/property-offices-vic-richmond-502638822" target="_blank">6 Hill Street </a>was leased on a two year term with options at a net annual rental of $60,000 plus GST.
Teska Carson’s Jack Kelliher and Fergus Evans leased the property.
Kelliher said the fully self-contained and extremely well presented, two level building featured lots of natural light.
He said the tenant was also attracted by the close proximity to Richmond retail and entertainment precincts, the CBD and public transport. 
"The property is situated just off Church Street, within the lively Cremorne precinct and is also within walking distance of Richmond and East Richmond railway stations. 
"Cremorne and/or Richmond is a very popular area. It’s very close to the CBD and offers residents and businesses access to a comprehensive and quality range of amenity and services.
"The property offered all of that along with a superb, light-filled, premises,’’ Kelliher said.
The lessor was a Melbourne-based private investor.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Electric car battery repurpose firm Relectrify renew Cremorne lease

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The apparently inevitable rise of the electric car has prompted Australia’s top federal infrastructure advisor to warn of falling revenues from the petrol excise.
In a speech yesterday, Infrastructure Australia chief executive Philip Davies highlighted a need for “planning policy” for an “expected rapid uptake of electric vehicles”.
But the reality is that, unless federal policy changes, Australia is extremely unlikely to increase its very small share of electric vehicles. Far from worrying about alternative taxes, international examples suggest subsidies and incentives are required to shift a country towards low-emissions cars.
The Norwegian example
For a real example of “rapid uptake”, we can look to Norway. More than 50% of consumers chose to buy an electric vehicle in 2017, compared with 40% in 2016.
We know consumers are unwilling to buy electric vehicles if they cost substantially more than conventional vehicles. Norway imposes a high stamp duty on internal combustion vehicles, and exempts battery electric vehicles from both stamp duty and the high 25% Value Added Tax. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles have a lower rate of stamp duty. Such financial incentives are high enough to offset the price differences between electric and combustion vehicles.
But financial incentives alone are not enough. Norway also provides total exemption from road tolls, free car ferry travel, free recharge sites, free parking, and access to bus lanes. In effect, consumers in Norway are better off for choosing a battery electric vehicle.
These incentives were crucial for removing the price barrier and influencing demand, raising Norway’s total of electric vehicles in 2017 to 123,200.
It is projected that by 2030, up to 4 million electric vehicles will be on the road in the Nordic states. Norway and Sweden will account for 80% of the growth by 2030.
If Australia wants to achieve its estimated 230,000 electric vehicles by 2025 (and more than a million by 2030) it’s clear we need additional federal policy measures.
Australians want electric – at the right price
According to Australian surveys, half of consumers are prepared to buy an electric car, but are concerned about price, range, and infrastructure. Although state and territory governments are supporting infrastructure and introducing policies to reduce stamp duty and registration for zero- and low-emitting vehicles, more is needed.
Federal government policy has not addressed the major barrier to sales: the high price sticker of electric vehicles relative to equivalent combustion vehicles, and the long time it takes for petrol savings to “pay back” the price difference.
For example, the hybrid Mitsubishi Outlander, which emits just 41 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometre, is listed in the manufacturer price guide at A$55,490. The petrol-fuelled model, which emits 211g of CO₂ per km, costs A$41,000. How many people will pay an extra A$14,490 for a low-emission car, with a nearly identical alternative available?
This is particularly important for low-end battery electric vehicles and PHEV with the longest driving range, as incentives seem to be less important for users of high-end battery electric cars like the Tesla Model S.
Without significant reductions in purchase price – through policy reform of taxes like the luxury car tax, and other incentives – it’s highly unlikely there will actually be a “rapid uptake” of electric vehicles in Australia. Low consumer demand will discourage car manufacturers form increasing the supply of electric or hybrid options in Australia, creating a vicious cycle.
The Australian Institute’s Emission Audit for December 2017, found that over the past two years emissions from road transport fuels has grown at twice the rate of GDP. This is actually offsetting any falling electricity generation emissions.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96104/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">To put it bluntly, if Australia doesn’t get on board the global transition to low-emission vehicles, we risk not meeting our 2015 Paris Agreement commitment to reduce emissions by 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2030.
Anna Mortimore, Lecturer, Griffith Business School, Griffith University
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-will-not-buy-electric-cars-without-better-incentives-96104" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Australians will not buy electric cars without better incentives: Anna Mortimore

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GUEST OBSERVER
Emerging transport disruptions could lead to a series of nightmare scenarios and poorer transport systems unless we have sensible and informed public policy to avoid this. Of course, some foresee a utopian scene: self-driving electric vehicles zipping around our cities serving all our transport needs without road accidents or exhaust fumes. But the shift to this transport utopia might not be as straightforward as some think.
In a newly published paper, we explore some potential problems linked to vehicle electrification, autonomous vehicles, the sharing economy and the increasing density of cities. We examined what could happen if these four trends are not all properly managed together.
Much has been written about the potential benefits of these disruptions:
<ul>
<li>
electric vehicles powered by renewable energy could cut costs and fossil fuel emissions, and eliminate the significant impacts of pollution on public health and the environment
</li>
<li>
shared vehicles could reduce transport costs and traffic
</li>
<li>
autonomous vehicles could eliminate traffic accidents, reduce congestion and increase mobility for everyone
</li>
<li>
increasing urban density could bring significant economic benefits through growth and efficiency gains when people and businesses are closer together.
</li>
</ul>
However, the interplay between these trends could also result in nightmare scenarios. We developed a Future Mobility Disruption Framework to investigate what could happen if even one of these trends is not actively managed.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204545/original/file-20180202-162063-2feaqu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
The interactions of transport disruptions need to be anticipated and managed together. Kane &amp; Whitehead 2018, Australian Planner, Author provided
Four nightmare scenarios
Our research identified four potential nightmare scenarios.
Nightmare 1: vehicle electrification + autonomous vehicles + increasing urban density
If policy fails to support and manage a shift away from private vehicle ownership towards car-sharing, several negative impacts are likely. In this scenario, electric cars will be cheaper to run and still privately owned. This could encourage more people to drive and create more traffic.
The convenience of self-driving cars with low operating costs might also encourage a shift away from traditional public transport and could even cause its collapse.
Nightmare 2: autonomous vehicles + increasing urban density + shift towards sharing economy
If people shift from private car ownership towards shared, autonomous vehicles, significant transport cost savings could be possible. By replacing public transport systems, shared vehicle services could arguably provide cheap transport for all.
While these benefits are obvious, without vehicle electrification, the use of fossil fuels would significantly increase emissions. Though a reduction in emissions is plausible with a shift away from private vehicle ownership, the low cost and convenience of shared vehicles could lead to higher demand and more trips, thus increasing emissions. This pollution would increase rates of premature deaths and diseases in our cities, and worsen the impacts of climate change.
Nightmare 3: increasing urban density + shift towards sharing economy + vehicle electrification
We would again see a shift away from private vehicle ownership towards shared, electric vehicles. This would reduce transport and pollution-related health costs However, in this scenario, the vehicles would not be autonomous.
The shared vehicle fleet would require human drivers. This would result in higher costs, less efficiency and more accidents. Ultimately, this would be a barrier to the long-term sustainability and widespread use of shared vehicles.
Nightmare 4: shift towards sharing economy + vehicle electrification + autonomous vehicles
So what would happen in the face of three of the transport disruptions occurring without increasing urban density? Electric and autonomous vehicles would significantly reduce transport costs. Combined with the availability of shared services, this would lead to a substantial shift away from private vehicle ownership towards shared, electric, autonomous vehicles (SEAVs).
These vehicles would be efficient, safe and convenient, with minimal environmental impacts. At first this would seem like the ideal scenario to aim for. However, it ignores the potential impacts on urban form and density.
Without policies supporting urban density and public transport, a shift towards SEAVs would probably encourage sprawling, car-dominated cities as people would have fewer reasons to live close to work. SEAVs would be cheap and convenient. They could pick people up from their front door and drop them directly at their destination. People would likely not be as concerned with road congestion as they could carry out other activities during the trip – even working during the drive.
If people feel less restricted in where they choose to live, they might opt for larger houses and lots, further away from cities. This would not only place additional demands on infrastructure but also have a significant impact on the natural environments surrounding our cities.
This form of lower-density living would discourage active transport options, like walking and cycling, which would have negative health impacts. Urban sprawl could also have negative economic impacts as people and businesses spread out and lose the benefits of being close together.
Managing disruptions as a whole
Each of these four trends could independently yield many benefits. However, examination of these nightmare scenarios reveals that, without holistic planning and policy support for all four disruptions, negative unintended consequences are likely. Planners and policymakers must consider how these disruptions will interact.
As detailed in our paper, a range of possible policy interventions is available for managing the risks associated with these trends. These include reform of road taxation, supportive regulation and integrated planning.
Only a holistic approach to managing these disruptions will enable us to arrive at a future transport utopia.
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90920/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">You can read more about these transport disruptions in a forthcoming book, Three Revolutions.
Jake Whitehead, Research Fellow, The University of Queensland 
Michael Kane, Director, Innovation and Economic Strategies, Economic Development Queensland; Research Associate, Curtin University Sustainability Policy Institute, Curtin University
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/utopia-or-nightmare-the-answer-lies-in-how-we-embrace-self-driving-electric-and-shared-vehicles-90920">original article</a>.
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Utopia or nightmare? The answer lies in how we embrace self-driving, electric and shared vehicles

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In the race to adopt electric vehicles, Australia is <a href="http://www.tai.org.au/sites/defualt/files/P233%20If%20you%20build%20it%20they%20will%20charge%20FINAL%20-%20October%202017.pdf" target="_blank">sputtering along in the slow lane</a>. Rather than growing, Australian sales of electric cars are actually in decline. In 2016 they represented just <a href="http://www.fcai.com.au/sales/cars" target="_blank">0.02% of new car sales</a> – even lower than in 2013.
Contrast that with Norway, the country with the highest levels of electric car adoption. <a href="http://www.eafo.eu/europe" target="_blank">Almost 30% of new cars sold there in 2016 were electric</a>.
Why are Australian motorists rejecting electric cars while those in other advanced economies are <a href="http://www.eafo.eu/europe" target="_blank">embracing them</a>? As the National Roads and Motorists’ Association (NRMA) has <a href="http://thehub.nrma.com.au/drive/what-you-need-know-about-electric-cars" target="_blank">previously pointed out</a>, high vehicle prices are an obvious barrier. But that is only part of the answer.
Our current research, in which we used online questionnaires to survey Australian motorists’ attitudes to electric vehicles, suggests that a comprehensive network of recharging stations, particularly on popular intercity routes, is essential to encourage drivers to go electric. This seems to be even more important than subsidising the cost of the cars themselves.
Rechargers on highways, in country towns and at service centres need to be fast and convenient, so that motorists aren’t <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fast-charge-plugs-do-not-fit-all-electric-cars/" target="_blank">unduly delayed</a>. Without the right charging infrastructure, there is no foundation to allow Australian motorists to go electric with confidence.
The average Australian motorist drives 36km per day for all passenger vehicles (see table 8 <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/9208.0">here</a>). This is well within the <a href="https://www.greenvehicleguide.gov.au" target="_blank">range of modern fully electric vehicles</a> – more than 150km for the models on sale in Australia – and actually less than Norwegians, who drive <a href="https://www.toi.no/getfile.php?mmfileid=43161" target="_blank">more than 40km a day on average</a>.
Norwegian drivers also enjoy the <a href="http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_GlobalZEVAlliance_201509.pdf" target="_blank">highest proportion of rechargers in the world</a>. But on another criterion the world leader is Estonia. It’s credited as the first nation to build a <a href="http://elmo.ee/elmo/" target="_blank">country-wide network</a>, with a recharging station every 50km on major roads, and one in every town with a population of at least 5,000.
<h2>Bumps in the road</h2>
Every country that has successfully adopted electric cars has done so by providing an effective recharging network. But we can learn from what has gone wrong in some of these places too.
Our research suggests that governments need to ensure that recharging stations work for motorists, rather than just for the network providers. Recharge points should have standardised fittings, easy payment options such as credit and debit card facilities, and prompt maintenance – all features of existing fuel stations.
Imagine if you could only fill up with petrol by pre-registering with a network, such as Caltex or Shell, and making sure you had paid in advance before taking a long trip. It sounds ridiculous, but that is the situation electric motorists face in some places.
Britain has multiple subscriber-only recharging networks, which frequently have chargers that are out of order. Recently, sales of fully electric vehicles have stagnated and it has only been a surge in sales of plug-in hybrids that <a href="http://www.eafo.eu/content/united-kingdom" target="_blank">boosted sales to 1.45% in 2016, up from 1.09% in 2015</a>.
California has solved that problem by introducing <a href="http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201320140SB454" target="_blank">legislation</a> to ensure that motorists don’t have to join a network and can pay for the electricity by credit card. As a result of this and other measures, such as <a href="http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_EV-promotion-US-cities_20150729.pdf" target="_blank">privileged lane access and support for workplace recharging</a>, electric cars now represent <a href="http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-electric-vehicles-20170517-story" target="_blank">4.8% of Californian car sales</a>, far outstripping the <a href="https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/" target="_blank">US average of 0.9% in 2016</a>.
<a href="https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201320140AB2565" target="_blank">Another Californian law</a> ensures that the 40% of Californians who live in rental properties can <a href="http://cleantechnica.com/2014/08/31/california-bill-renters-install-electric-car-charging-stations/" target="_blank">recharge their cars at home</a>. As Australians are increasingly living in high-rise developments, ensuring car parks have the capacity to recharge cars overnight will be critical. The technology exists to enable separate billing for each car, so making sure strata management allows installation will be essential for people in units and flats to adopt this low-polluting technology.
Introducing such legislation will be a necessary first step. China <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-%2010/china-s-fossil-fuel-deadline-shifts-focus-to-electric-car-race-j7fktx9z?mc_cid=5b63d2c68d&amp;mc_eid=5fb912b537" target="_blank">recently announced</a> that it is working towards a timetable to end production and sales of internal combustion engine vehicles. It’s a good example, which Australia would be wise to follow.
This will be critical if we are to reduce transport-related emissions, toxic air pollution and noise, and improve our fuel security in the face of increasingly unstable geopolitical circumstances and our <a href="https://theconversation.com/running-on-empty-australias-risky-approach-to-oil-supplies-23619" target="_blank">growing dependence on imported fuel</a>.
Without an adequate recharging network, Australian motorists risk being left in the rear-view mirror as the rest of the world’s drivers go electric. With electric cars forecast to reach <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-06/the-electric-car-revolution-%20is-accelerating" target="_blank">price equivalency with petrol cars by 2025</a>, we need to help Australians overcome their anxieties about running out of charge before they reach their destination.
Governments can do this by mandating a comprehensive open-access recharging network to speed the uptake of electric vehicles. We won’t be able to fix the problem overnight but we have to get started. There is no shortage of other countries to look to for ideas.
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86478/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">This article was coauthored by <a href="http://www.ies.unsw.edu.au/our-people/gail-broadbent" target="_blank">Gail Broadbent</a>, a postgraduate researcher at UNSW’s School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Science.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/graciela-metternicht-159393" target="_blank">Graciela Metternicht</a>, Professor of Environmental Geography, School of Biological Earth and Environmental Sciences, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/danielle-drozdzewski-254076" target="_blank">Danielle Drozdzewski</a>, Senior Lecturer in Human Geography, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/negative-charge-why-is-australia-so-slow-at-adopting-electric-cars-86478" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Why is Australia so slow at adopting electric cars?

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/73914/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
A key question amid the consternation over the current state of Australia’s east coast energy market has been how much renewable energy capacity to build, and how fast.
But help could be at hand from a surprising source: electric vehicles. By electrifying our motoring, we would boost demand for renewable energy from the grid, while smoothing out some of the destabilising effects that the recent boom in household solar has had on our energy networks. 
Australia’s electricity infrastructure was built largely without renewable energy in mind, and primarily to maintain reliability for when demand peaks. The high uptake of solar panels, while good for reducing carbon emissions, has reduced grid demand by 5-10% in Australia, and as a side-effect has lowered the value of network assets, raised power prices, and made the grid trickier to manage. 
Electric vehicles can ease the pressure on spikes in electricity prices by adding storage capacity. They are effectively a distributed storage system - with smart meters they can feed electricity back into the grid when prices are high. These vehicles’ battery reserves can thus help with the balancing of the grid and provide energy in the peak period. Electric vehicles would also add battery storage to the grid at the same time, which can reduce the need to size the grid for demand peaks. 
One way to think of electric vehicles is essentially as batteries you can drive. So before the government pursues plans such as spending A$2 billion on expanding the Snowy Hydro scheme, it should do a cost-benefit analysis comparing the returns from similar infrastructure investment in electric vehicles. 
According to the Office of the Chief Economist, Australia produced 6 billion kilowatt hours of solar PV in 2015 – enough to run almost 2 million cars, equivalent to 10% of Australia’s total current passenger vehicle fleet. Increasing demand for grid-sourced electricity will put downward pressure on network prices, which typically are roughly half of the cost of a household energy tariff. At a time when demand has declined and policy settings have created lots of investor uncertainty, the increased demand will also encourage investment in new generation capacity.
Electric vehicles can also increase economic activity in Australia and improve air quality and health. Australia has nearly 20 million cars that together drive 280 billion km each year. Passenger vehicles alone consume 20 billion litres of fuel each year in Australia. At A$1.50 per litre, that is A$30 billion per year that is burned, with roughly half the revenues going to multinational oil companies and the other half going into federal coffers as fuel tax.
The health costs of pollution from vehicle emissions adds a further A$1,450 per household per year in major cities, an annual impost of some A$14.5 billion on household and government budgets – roughly the same as what the government earns in fuel tax.
If all vehicles were electric, the same distance could be driven with electricity costing less than A$15 billion, because electric motors are more efficient than internal combustion engines (although this is slightly offset by minor grid losses). This would thus deliver a double saving, in terms of both household fuel bills and reduced health costs. 
Changing gear
Of course this won’t happen overnight, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The electricity grid will need time to adjust and add extra renewable capacity, as the cost of electric cars comes down and coal power stations get old. 
Both economic analysis and recent political experience suggest that encouraging investment in renewable energy is expensive, especially if the only driving factor is the need to cut greenhouse emissions (important though that is).
Here is where electric vehicles can really help the grid. Swapping petrol or diesel cars for electric ones on a large enough scale will increase Australia’s flatlining electricity demand, making it more lucrative for energy suppliers to invest in new generation capacity. Given the increasing cost of gas, and the declining support for coal, on balance most of this demand will be met with new renewable capacity, facilitated by the addition of all these new “batteries you can drive”. 
Click to enlarge
A suggested pathway to energy sustainability via electric cars. Adapted from Andrich et al. Inequality as an obstacle to sustainable energy use, Energy for Sustainable Development
Government policy should be to set some high-level national interest objectives, such as maintaining gas for domestic use, and then simply not interfere with the market as much as possible. But political leaders are struggling to keep up with the rapid changes in technology and the market. The pathway to sustainability would have been smoother and faster if governments had looked to WA for a gas reservation policy, not intervened by closing coal, and reduced the subsidies that allowed solar power to grow so disruptively fast (particularly in wealthier households). 
Making more effort to promote electric cars would also have allowed a more successful transition to renewable energy and reduced the price shocks being suffered by eastern Australia in areas such as the gas market. Fortunately, it is not too late.
Hitting the road
Investing in a new car is not a decision most households take lightly. This is especially true of electric cars, which are expensive, are not marketed widely, are available in only a limited range of models, and are subject to concerns about charging and range.
Presently, electric vehicles are only affordable for higher-income households, which is ironic given the benefits they would offer lower-income households in terms of fuel budgeting and reduced exposure to urban pollution and health costs. 
One-third of an electric vehicle’s cost is batteries, which are rapidly coming down in price. Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that by 2022, electric models will cost the same as their petrol counterparts. That will be the point of liftoff for sales. 
Meanwhile, electric cars have an undoubted cool factor. Buying one is a powerful way to show you care about your community’s future. Pardon the pun, but just look at the way Tesla founder Elon Musk electrified the debate over South Australia’s electricity problems.
For governments, electric vehicles offer an opportunity to make significant inroads on environmental and health problems, not to mention urban planning and infrastructure. The demand for car batteries could also boost related industries, such as lithium mining, in which Australia is a world leader.
Feeling electric
Simple, inexpensive policies could encourage electric vehicle uptake, such as reducing registration fees and stamp duty on electric cars and allowing them to drive in bus or other priority lanes, while also hiking the tax on diesel cars that cause cancer.
Other emerging transport trends, such as car-sharing clubs and ride-sharing apps, could also hasten the uptake of electric vehicles. Sharing increases the number of kilometres driven by each individual vehicle, meaning that the upfront costs are paid back more rapidly, leaving the owner with a car that is paid off and cheaper to run than a petrol or diesel model.
These facts are not lost on the car manufacturers themselves. But given the potential co-benefits to the electricity grid and community health, we might expect power utilities and health agencies to join the push to actively promote electric vehicles – not to mention politicians who are looking to deal with our energy issues and win a few votes along they way.
Mark Andrich is director, Sustainability and Finance Specialist, University of Western Australia and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mark-andrich-146801" target="_blank">here</a>. Jemma Green is research fellow, Curtin University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jemma-green-105891" target="_blank">here</a>.
Both are authors for The Conversation.
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