Climate change

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Amid the urgent need to slow climate change by cutting greenhouse gas emissions, energy efficiency makes sense. But as Australia’s chief scientist Alan Finkel last week warned, we’re not “anywhere close to having that nailed”.
Energy efficiency means using less energy to achieve the same outcomes. It’s the <a href="http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/verve/_resources/TCI_BoostingAustraliasEnergyProductivity_July2013.pdf" target="_blank">cheapest way</a> to cut greenhouse gas emissions and achieve our climate goals. Improving energy efficiency is also vital to achieving so-called “energy productivity” – getting more economic output, using the same or less energy.
But Australia’s <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-productivity-and-energy-efficiency/national-energy-productivity-plan" target="_blank">national energy productivity plan</a>, agreed by the nation’s energy ministers in 2015, has gone nowhere.
It set a goal of a 40% improvement in energy productivity by 2030. But my analysis, based on the most recent official data, shows that in the three years to 2017-18, energy productivity increased by a mere 1.1%.
Clearly, there is much work to do. So let’s take a look at the problem and the potential solutions.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343107/original/file-20200622-75505-1j11r63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">Energy efficiency reduces power bills for consumers. Julian Smith/AAP
<h2>Energy efficiency: a low-hanging fruit</h2>
Better energy efficiency lowers electricity bills, makes businesses more competitive and helps manage energy demand. Of course, it also means less greenhouse gas emissions, because fewer fossil fuels are burnt for energy.
Business, unions and green groups recognise the benefits. Last month they joined forces to <a href="https://www.bca.com.au/building_a_stronger_and_cleaner_post_pandemic_australia" target="_blank">call for</a> a sustainable COVID-19 economic recovery, with energy efficiency at the core, saying:
In Australia, a major drive to improve the energy efficiency of buildings and industry could deliver over 120,000 job-years of employment […] Useful upgrades could be made across Australia’s private and public housing; commercial, community and government buildings; and industrial facilities.
The group said improvements could include:
<ul>
<li>more efficient and controllable appliances and equipment, especially for heating and cooling</li>
<li>improved shading and thermal envelopes (improving the way a building’s walls, ceiling and floors prevent heat transfer)</li>
<li>smart meters to measure energy use</li>
<li>distributed energy generation and storage, such as wind and solar backed by batteries</li>
<li>fuel switching (replacing inefficient fuels with cleaner and economical alternatives)</li>
<li>equipment, training and advice for better energy management.</li>
</ul>
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has suggested <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/iea-offers-world-governments-a-sustainable-recovery-plan-to-boost-economic-growth-create-millions-of-jobs-and-put-emissions-into-structural-decline" target="_blank">other measures</a> for industry and manufacturing, such as:
<ul>
<li>installing more efficient electric motors</li>
<li>switching from gas to electric heat pumps</li>
<li>more waste and material recycling.</li>
</ul>
And in transport, the IEA suggests incentives to get older, less efficient cars off the roads and encourage the uptake of electric vehicles.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343110/original/file-20200622-75483-cm4unz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">Residential buildings offer big opportunities for energy efficiency improvements. Brendan Esposito/AAP
<h2>Governments’ sleight of hand</h2>
In 2018 <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-policies-of-iea-countries-australia-2018-review" target="_blank">the IEA observed</a>:
<blockquote>
the power sector will be at the heart of Australia’s energy system transformation […] International best practice suggests that both energy efficiency and renewable energy are key drivers of the energy transition.
</blockquote>
Since then, renewable energy’s share of the electricity mix has increased. But energy productivity has stalled.
To understand how, we must define a few key terms.
Primary energy refers to energy extracted from the environment, such as coal, crude oil, and electrical energy collected by a wind turbine or solar panel.
Final energy is the energy supplied to a consumer, such as electricity delivered to homes or fuel pumped at a petrol station.
A lot of energy is lost in the process of turning extracted primary fuels into ready-to-use fuels for consumers. For example at coal-fired power stations, on average, <a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2013/04/f0/HS_Coal_Studyguide_draft1.pdf" target="_blank">one-third of the energy </a>supplied by burning coal is converted to electricity. The remainder is lost as waste heat.
Until 2015, Australia and most other countries used final energy as a measure of how rapidly energy efficiency was improving. But the national productivity plan instead set goals around primary energy productivity – aiming to increase it by 40% between 2015 and 2030.
This has made it possible for governments to hide how badly Australia is travelling on improving energy efficiency. I analysed <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id:%22library/prspub/17I30%22" target="_blank">national accounts</a> figures and <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">energy statistics</a>, to produce the below table. It reveals the governments’ sleight of hand.
Over the three years from 2014-15 to 2017-18, final energy productivity increased by only 1.1%, whereas primary energy productivity increased by 3.5%.
The reduced primary energy consumption is mostly due to a large increase in wind and solar generation. The efficiency of energy used by final consumers has scarcely changed.
<h2>A sustainable future</h2>
The lack of progress on energy productivity is not surprising, given governments have shown very little interest in the issue.
As Finkel noted in his address, Australia’s energy productivity plan is absent from the list of national climate and energy policies. The plan’s 2019 annual report has not been released. And those released since 2015 have not monitored progress in energy productivity.
What’s more, the plan makes no mention of previous similar agreements, in <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/bd/bd0910/10bd152" target="_blank">2004</a> and <a href="https://www.energyrating.gov.au/document/report-national-strategy-energy-efficiency" target="_blank">2009</a>, to accelerate energy efficiency with regulation and financial incentives. Since 2013, almost all Commonwealth programs supporting those agreements have been de-funded or <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r5232" target="_blank">abolished</a>, and many state programs have also been cut back.
The IEA’s <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/iea-offers-world-governments-a-sustainable-recovery-plan-to-boost-economic-growth-create-millions-of-jobs-and-put-emissions-into-structural-decline" target="_blank">sustainable recovery plan</a>, released last week, outlined what a sustainable global economic recovery might look like. In particular, it said better energy efficiency and switching to more efficient electric technologies will deliver triple benefits: increased employment, a more productive economy and lower greenhouse gas emissions.
In this carbon-constrained world, relatively easy and cheap opportunities such as energy efficiency must be seized. And as Australia spends to get its post-pandemic economy back on track, now is the time to act.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123176/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hugh-saddler-12123" target="_blank">Hugh Saddler</a>, Honorary Associate Professor, Centre for Climate Economics and Policy, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877" target="_blank">Australian National University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-failed-miserably-on-energy-efficiency-and-government-figures-hide-the-truth-123176" target="_blank">original article</a>.
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Australia has failed miserably on energy efficiency – and government figures hide the truth

<html><body>
Over the past two weeks, storms pummelling the New South Wales coast have left beachfront homes at Wamberal on the verge of collapse. It’s stark proof of the risks climate change and sea level rise pose to coastal areas.
Our new research published today puts a potential price on the future destruction. Coastal land affected by flooding – including high tides and extreme seas – could increase by 48% by 2100. Exposed human population and assets are also estimated to increase by about half in that time.
Under a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions and no flood defences, the cost of asset damage could equate up to 20% of the global economy in 2100.
Without a dramatic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, or a huge investment in sea walls and other structures, it’s clear coastal erosion will devastate the global economy and much of the world’s population.
In Australia, we predict the areas to be worst-affected by flooding are concentrated in the north and northeast of the continent, including around Darwin and Townsville.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350326/original/file-20200730-23-rmfjij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="Man cleans up after Townsville flood"> 
A clean-up after flooding last year in Townsville, an Australian city highly exposed to future sea level rise. Dan Peled/AAP
<h2>Our exposed coasts</h2>
Sea levels are rising at an increasing rate for <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel" target="_blank">two main reasons</a>. As global temperatures increase, glaciers and ice sheets melt. At the same time, the oceans absorb heat from the atmosphere, causing the water to expand. Seas are rising by about 3-4 millimetres a year and the rate is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/" target="_blank">expected</a> to accelerate.
These higher sea levels, combined with potentially more extreme weather under climate change, will bring damaging flooding to coasts. Our study set out to determine the extent of flooding, how many people this would affect and the economic damage caused.
We combined data on global sea levels during extreme storms with projections of sea level rises under moderate and high-end greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We used the data to model extreme sea levels that may occur by 2100.
We combined this model with topographic data (showing the shape and features of the land surface) to identify areas at risk of coastal flooding. We then estimated the population and assets at risk from flooding, using data on global population distribution and gross domestic product in affected areas.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350322/original/file-20200730-29-eqrhbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="Homes at Collaroy in Sydney damaged by storm surge">
Many coastal homes, such as these at Sydney’s Collaroy beach, are exposed to storm surge damage. David Moir/AAP
<h2>Alarming findings</h2>
So what did we find? One outstanding result is that due to sea level rise, what is now considered a once-a-century extreme sea level event could occur as frequently as every ten years or less for most coastal locations.
Under a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions and assuming no flood defences, such as sea walls, we estimate that the land area affected by coastal flooding could increase by 48% by 2100.
This could mean by 2100, the global population exposed to coastal flooding could be up to 287 million (4.1% of the world’s population).
Under the same scenario, coastal assets such as buildings, roads and other infrastructure worth up to US$14.2 trillion (A$19.82 trillion) could be threatened by flooding.
This equates to 20% of global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2100. However this worst-case scenario assumes no flood defences are in place globally. This is unlikely, as sea walls and other structures have already been built in some coastal locations.
In Australia, areas where coastal flooding might be extensive include the Northern Territory, and the northern coasts of Queensland and Western Australia.
Elsewhere, extensive coastal flooding is also projected in: - southeast China - Bangladesh, and India’s states of West Bengal and Gujurat - US states of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland - northwest Europe including the UK, northern France and northern Germany.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350319/original/file-20200730-35-19xjvnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="A woman struggles through floodwaters in Bangladesh">Bangladesh is among the nations most exposed to coastal flooding this century. SOPA
<h2>Keeping the sea at bay</h2>
Our large-scale global analysis has some limitations, and our results at specific locations might differ from local findings. But we believe our analysis provides a basis for more detailed investigations of climate change impacts at the most vulnerable coastal locations.
It’s clear the world must ramp up measures to adapt to coastal flooding and offset associated social and economic impacts.
This adaptation will include building and enhancing coastal protection structures such as dykes or sea walls. It will also include coastal retreat – allowing low-lying coastal areas to flood, and moving human development inland to safer ground. It will also require deploying coastal warning systems and increasing flooding preparedness of coastal communities. This will require careful long-term planning.
All this might seem challenging – and it is. But done correctly, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.pnas.org/content/111/9/3292" target="_blank">coastal adaptation</a> can protect hundreds of millions of people and save the global economy billions of dollars this century.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ebru-kirezci-1140869" target="_blank">Ebru Kirezci</a>, PhD candidate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722" target="_blank">University of Melbourne</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ian-young-807759" target="_blank">Ian Young</a>, Kernot Professor of Engineering, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722" target="_blank">University of Melbourne</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/unwelcome-sea-change-new-research-finds-coastal-flooding-may-cost-up-to-20-of-global-economy-by-2100-143599" target="_blank">original article</a>.
</body></html>

Research finds coastal flooding may cost up to 20% of global economy by 2100

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
First the drought, then bushfires and then flash floods: a chain of extreme events hit Australia hard in recent months. The coronavirus pandemic has only temporarily shifted our attention towards a new emergency, adding yet another risk.
We knew from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that the risk of extreme events was rising. What we perhaps didn’t realise was the high probability of different extreme events hitting one after the other in the same regions. Especially in the fringes of Australian cities, residents are facing new levels of environmental risk, especially from bushfires and floods.
But this cycle of devastation is not inevitable if we understand the connections between events and do something about them.
Measures to slow climate change are in the hands of policymakers. But, at the adaptation level, we can still do many things to reduce the impacts of extreme events on our cities.
We can start by increasing our capacity to see these phenomena as one problem to be tackled locally, rather than distinct problems to be addressed centrally. Solutions should be holistic, community-centred and focused on people’s practices and shared responsibilities.
Respond to emergency
We can draw lessons from humanitarian responses to large disasters, including both national and international cases. A recent review of disaster responses in urban areas found several factors are critical for more successful recovery.
One is to prioritise the needs of people themselves. This requires genuine, collaborative engagement. People who have been through a bushfire or flood are not “helpless victims”. They are survivors who need to be supported and listened to, not dictated to, in terms of what they may or may not need.
Another lesson is to link recovery efforts, rather than have individual agencies provide services separately. For instance, an organisation focusing on housing recovery needs to work closely with organisations that are providing water or sanitation. A coordinated approach is more efficient, less wearying on those needing help, and better reflects the interconnected reality of everyday life.
In the aid world this is known as an “area-based” approach. It prioritises efforts that are driven by people demand rather than by the supply available.
A third lesson is give people money, not goods. Money allows people to decide what they really need, rather than rely on the assumptions of others.
As the bushfires have shown, donations of secondhand goods and clothes often turn into piles of unwanted goods. Disposal then becomes a problem in its own right.
Combining local knowledge and engagement
Planning approaches in outer urban areas should be realigned with our current understanding of bushfire and flood risk. This situation is challenging planners to engage with residents in new ways to ensure local needs are met, especially in relation to disaster resilience.
In areas of high bushfire risk, planning needs to connect equally with the full range of locals. Landscape and biodiversity experts, including Indigenous land managers, and emergency managers should work in association with planning processes that welcome input from residents. This approach is highly likely to reduce risks.
Planners have a vital job to create platforms that enable the interplay of ideas, local values and traditional knowledge. Authentic engagement can increase residents’ awareness of environmental hazards. It can also pave the way for specific actions by authorities to reduce risks, such as those undertaken by Country Fire Service community engagement units in South Australia.
Managing water to build bushfire resilience Regenerating ecosystems by responding to flood risk can be crucial to increase urban and peri-urban resilience while reducing future drought and bushfire impacts.
Research on flood management suggests rainwater must be always seen as a resource, even in the case of extreme events. Sustainable water management through harvesting, retention and reuse can have long-term positive effects in regenerating micro-climates. It is at the base of any action aimed at comprehensively increasing resilience.
In this sense, approaches based on decentralised systems are more effective at countering the risks of drought, fire and flood locally. They consist of small-scale nature-based solutions able to absorb and retain water to reduce flooding. Distributed off-grid systems support water harvesting in rainy seasons and prevent fires during drought by maintaining soil moisture.
Decentralisation also creates opportunities for innovation in the management of urban ecosystems, with responsibility shared among many. Mobile technologies can help communities play an active role in minimising flood impacts at the small scale. Information platforms can also help raise awareness of the links between risks and actions and lead to practical solutions that are within everybody’s reach.
Tailor responses to people and ecosystems Disrupted ecosystems can make the local impacts of drought, fire and flood worse, but can also play a role in global failures, such as the recent pandemic. It is urgent to define and implement mechanisms to reverse this trend.
Lessons from disaster responses point towards the need to tailor solutions to community needs and local environmental conditions. A few key strategies are emerging:
1. foster networks and coordinated approaches that operate across silos
2. support local and traditional landscape knowledge
3. use information platforms to help people work together to manage risks
4/ manage water locally with the support of populations to prevent drought and bushfire.
Recent environmental crises are showing us the way to finally change direction. Safe cities and landscapes can be achieved only by regenerating urban ecosystems while responding to increasing environmental risks through integrated, people-centred actions.T
Elisa Palazzo, Urbanist and landscape planner - Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Built Environment, UNSW; Annette ˚Bardsley, Researcher, Department of Geography, Environment and Population, University of Adelaide, and David Sanderson, Professor and Inaugural Judith Neilson Chair in Architecture, UNSW
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
</body></html>

Drought, fire and flood: how outer urban areas can manage the emergency while reducing future risks

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Observed impacts of climate change on housing markets may once have been confined to areas known for extreme weather. But as Australian summers get hotter and longer, the challenges of climate change are manifesting in the property market in previously unexpected and specific ways.
Rising temperatures are proving a disruptive force to town planning, creating affordability pressures and increasing insurance costs.
Western Sydney is undergoing unprecedented development and transformation, reflecting the vast size and population growth of the region.
However, Western Sydney is also getting hotter.
Data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology shows the mean of maximum daily temperatures each month is rising.
Climate projections reported by the Australia institute projected that by 2030, Penrith could see 22 days of the year where temperatures surpass 35 ̊C. Meanwhile, the eastern suburbs of Sydney are expected to remain relatively cool, with just 7 of these days projected in Coogee.
Reducing thermal discomfort is an increasing focus for urban planners. Water technologies, tree canopy and the use of cool materials are demonstrably effective.
But some of these heat management methods don't mix well with the development in Western Sydney.
The construction of the Western Sydney airport for example, will require some level of mitigation for bird and bat strike, including limiting the amount of trees within a certain radius of the airport.
These complexities increase the challenge that rising temperatures place on the ambitious developments for Western Sydney.
<div title="Page 1">
<div>
ELIZA OWEN is the Head of Australian Research at CoreLogic
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

pchatterjee-seVgoiQgz5

Cooling Western Sydney has become a major planning focus: Eliza Owen

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences 'farmpredict model' finds that changes in climate conditions since 2000 have cut farm profits by 22% overall, and by 35% for cropping farms.
The current drought across much of eastern Australia has demonstrated the dramatic effects climate variability can have on farm businesses and households.
The drought has also renewed longstanding discussions around the emerging effects of climate change on agriculture, and how governments can best help farmers to manage drought risk.
A new <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications/insights/effects-of-drought-and-climate-variability-on-Australian-farms" target="_blank">study</a> released this morning by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences offers fresh insight on these issues by quantifying the impacts of recent climate variability on the profits of Australian broadacre farms.
The results show that changes in temperature and rainfall over the past 20 years have had a negative effect on average farm profits while also increasing risk.
The findings demonstrate the importance of adaptation, innovation and adjustment to the agriculture sector, and the need for policy responses which promote – and don’t unnecessarily inhibit – such progress.
Measuring the effects of climate on farms
Measuring the effects of climate on farms is difficult given the many other factors that also influence farm performance, including commodity prices.
Further, the effects of rainfall and temperature on farm production and profit can be complex and highly location and farm specific.
To address this complexity, ABARES has developed a model based on more than 30 years of historical farm and climate data—<a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/working-papers/farmpredict">farmpredict</a> — which can identify effects of climate variability, input and output prices, and other factors on different types of farms.
Cropping farms most exposed
The model finds that cropping farms generally face greater climate risk than beef farms, but also generate higher average returns.
Cropping farm revenue and profits are lower in dry years, with large reductions in crop yields and only small savings in input costs.
<hr>
Effect of climate variability on rate of return
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307011/original/file-20191216-123998-16ibp5s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307011/original/file-20191216-123998-16ibp5s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> <a class="source" href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications/insights/effects-of-drought-and-climate-variability-on-Australian-farms"> </a>
<hr>
In contrast, drought has a smaller immediate effect on beef farm revenue, because in dry years farmers can increase the quantity of livestock sold.
However, drought also <a href="https://www.mla.com.au/globalassets/mla-corporate/prices--markets/documents/trends--analysis/cattle-projections/august-update-australian-cattle-industry-projections-2019.pdf">lowers herd numbers</a>, which lowers farm profit when herd value is accounted for.
Higher temperatures, lower winter rainfall
Australian average temperatures have <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/">increased by about 1°C since 1950</a>.
Recent decades have also seen a trend towards lower <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/">average winter rainfall</a> in the southwest and southeast.
This drying trend has been linked to <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/">atmospheric changes associated with global warming</a>.
However, while global climate models <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/">generally predict</a> a decline in winter season rainfall across southern Australia and more time spent in drought, there is still much uncertainty about what will happen in the long term, particularly to rainfall.
Climate shifts have cut farm profits
ABARES has assessed the effect of climate variability on farm profits over the period 1950 to 2019, holding all other factors constant including commodity prices and farm management practices.
We find that the shift in climate conditions since 2000 (from conditions in the period 1950-1999 to conditions in the period 2000-2019) has had a negative effect on the profits of both cropping and livestock farms.
<hr>
Effect of 2000 - 2019 climate conditions on average farm profit
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307013/original/file-20191216-124031-15wtqlo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307013/original/file-20191216-124031-15wtqlo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> 
<hr>
We estimate that the shift in climate has cut average annual broadacre farm profits by around 22%, which is an average of $18,600 per farm per year, controlling for all other factors.
The effects have been most pronounced in the cropping sector, reducing average profits by 35%, or $70,900 a year for a typical cropping farm.
At a national level this amounts to an average loss in production of broadacre crops of around $1.1 billion a year.
Although beef farms have been less affected than cropping farms overall, some beef farming regions have been affected more than others, especially south-western Queensland.
Like <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/climate/farm-performance-climate">previous ABARES research</a> this study finds evidence of adaptation, with farmers reducing their sensitivity to dry conditions over time.
Our results suggest that without this adaptation the effects of the post-2000 climate shift <a href="https://agriculture.gov.au/effects-of-drought-and-climate-variability-on-Australian-farms">would have been considerably larger, particularly for cropping farms</a>.
<hr>
Effect of post-2000 climate on average annual farm profits
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307022/original/file-20191216-124027-s6o7s0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307022/original/file-20191216-124027-s6o7s0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> <a class="source" href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications/insights/effects-of-drought-and-climate-variability-on-Australian-farms"> </a>
<hr>
Risk and income volatility have also increased
The changed climate conditions since 2000 have also increased risk and income volatility.
This is particularly so for cropping farms, where we find the chance of low-profit years has more than doubled as a result of the change in climate conditions.
<hr>
Effect of climate variability on typical cropping farm
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307023/original/file-20191216-124036-6vmj0y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307023/original/file-20191216-124036-6vmj0y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> <a class="source" href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications/insights/effects-of-drought-and-climate-variability-on-Australian-farms"> </a>
<hr>
Handle with care – the drought policy dilemma
Drought policy faces an almost unavoidable dilemma, that providing relief to farm businesses and households in times of drought risks slowing industry structural adjustment and innovation.
Adjustment, change and innovation are fundamental to improving agricultural productivity; maintaining Australia’s competitiveness in world markets; and providing attractive and financially sustainable opportunities for farm households.
For these reasons, the strategic intent of drought policy has shifted away from seeking to protect and insulate farmers towards the promotion of drought <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/ag-farm-food/drought/drought-policy/history">preparedness and self‑reliance</a>.
The best options for reconciling the drought policy dilemma focus on boosting the resilience of farm businesses and households to future droughts and climate variability, including through action and investment when farmers are not in drought.
The government’s <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/ag-farm-food/drought/future-drought-fund">Future Drought Fund</a>, which will support research and innovation, is a good example of this approach.
Developing new insurance options is one worthwhile avenue of research which could provide farmers a way to self-manage risk. It would require investments in data and knowledge to support viable weather insurance markets: where farmers pay premiums sufficient to cover costs over time.
Supporting farm households experiencing hardship is legitimate and important, but for the long term health of the farm sector this needs to be done in ways that promote resilience and improved productivity and allow for long term adjustment to change.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128860/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/neal-hughes-360453">Neal Hughes</a>, Senior Economist, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-bureau-of-agricultural-and-resource-economics-and-sciences-abares-3697">Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steve-hatfield-dodds-202833">Steve Hatfield-Dodds</a>, Executive Director, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-bureau-of-agricultural-and-resource-economics-and-sciences-abares-3697">Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-study-changes-in-climate-since-2000-have-cut-australian-farm-profits-22-128860">original article</a>.
</body></html>

Changes in climate since 2000 have cut Australian farm profits 22%

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
For the thousand or so farmers in Canberra in the past week venting their anger at the federal government, it’s the<a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6522046/convoy-calls-to-can-murray-darling-plan/" target="_blank"> Murray-Darling Basin Plan to blame</a> for destroying their livelihoods and forcing them off the land.
We can’t comment directly on their claims about the basin plan. But our research, looking at the years 1991 to 2011, suggests little association between the amount of water extracted from the Murray-Darling river system for irrigation and total farmer numbers.
That’s not to say there aren’t fewer farms in the basin now than a decade ago – there are – but our analysis points to the more important drivers being the longer-term influences of changing climate, economics and demographics.
Indeed our study predicts another 0.5℃ increase in temperature by 2041 will halve the current number of farmers in the basin.
Hostility to water recovery
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283224/original/file-20190709-51312-1bmd1r9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283224/original/file-20190709-51312-1bmd1r9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
The waters of the northern basin run to the Darling River and the waters of the southern basin run to the Murray River. <a class="source" href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/discover-basin/landscape/geography" target="_blank">MDBA</a>
Over many decades state governments in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia licensed to farmers more entitlements to water than the river system could sustain. The basis of the Murray-Darling Basin Plan, enacted in 2012, was to rectify this through buying back about a quarter of all water licences to ensure an environmental flow.
A water entitlement, despite its name, does not guarantee a licence holder a certain amount of water. That depends on the water available, and that is determined by the states, which make allocations to each type of licence based on its type of security and current conditions.
With drought, farmers have seen their allocations severely cut back, sometimes to nothing. And partly because they see there’s still water in the River Murray, some are <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2019/12/03/farmers-drought-protest-canberra/" target="_blank">very angry</a>.
Hostility to water recovery in fact predates the plan’s enactment, to when the federal government began buying back water entitlements in 2008. The Commonwealth now holds about 20% of water entitlements across the basin. More than two-thirds of these licences were recovered between <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-resource-100517-023039" target="_blank">2008 and 2012</a>.
Lack of correlation
Our research thus covers the period of most significant water buybacks. It also covers the period of the Millennium Drought, from 2001 to 2009, when the amount of water extracted from the river system dropped by about 70%.
Yet we see little evidence reduced water extractions led to more farmers exiting the industry.
As a very broad overview of the situation, the following graph illustrates the lack of correlation between measured water extraction in the Murray-Darling Basin and decreasing farmer numbers.
<hr>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306067/original/file-20191210-95111-mzuk3r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
<hr>
Water extractions have varied significantly between years, with a big decline over the decade of the 2000s even while farmers’ need for irrigated water increased due to lack of rain. La Niña brought record rains in 2010-11. The current drought across the basin took grip from about 2017.
Yet farmer numbers have declined at a relative steady rate. Within the basin in the time-period we modelled, they fell from about 90,000 in 1991 to 70,000 in 2011. This can be seen as part of a wider trend, with total farmer numbers in the four basin states falling from more than 230,000 in 1976 to barely 100,000 in 2016.
It might be argued that because irrigated farms make up only a quarter of all farms, the overall numbers might mask a greater correlation between water extractions and decline in irrigated farms. While the specific impacts on irrigation farming in recent years warrant further study, there’s no signal in our data pointing to extractions making a discernible contribution to farmer numbers throughout the basin.
Modelling farmer movement
Our <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-019-02601-8" target="_blank">findings</a> are based on a specialised data set of population and agricultural census information from <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/bb8db737e2af84b8ca2571780015701e/23d04985e1786824ca25720b0002bb18!OpenDocument" target="_blank">statistical local areas</a> from 1991 to 2011. We used climate risk measures from 1961 onwards.
The following infographic shows the exit pattern of farmers by local area between 1991 and 2011.
We included as many climate, economic, farming, water and socio-demographic characteristics as possible to capture historical farmer movements and create a model able to predict movements based on variables such as average temperature.
Need for a multifaceted response
Overall our modelling results suggests the most significant and largest influences on farmer exit are rising temperatures and increased drought risk, followed by the economic factors that have have been reducing the proportion of the population engaged in farming for more than a century.
Declining commodity prices, higher unemployment and urbanisation are strongly associated with farmer exit. Urbanisation, for example, has made it attractive for farmers on city fringes to sell their land to property developers and exit the industry.
Research suggests irrigators in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0743016717302000?via%3Dihub" target="_blank">psychological distress</a> are more likely to want the basin plan suspended. Our research suggests their distress is probably not primarily driven by the federal government buying water entitlements from licence holders who sold them willingly. Water recovery and the basin plan is simply an easier focal point of blame than the longer-term trends making the farming lifestyle less viable.
Nothing will be gained by focusing on short-term “fixes” at the cost of longer-term environmental harm. The problems facing all farmers cannot be addressed in isolation from longer-term global climate and economic trends.
As a society we have to decide what we value: do we want to see such a mass exodus of farmers from the land in the face of a drying climate? If not, future policy for the Basin must consider the real long-term drivers of farm exit and take a multi-faceted approach to climate change, water, land, drought and rural development.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128048/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Sarah Ann Wheeler, Professor in Water Economics, University of Adelaide.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-blame-the-murray-darling-basin-plan-its-climate-and-economic-change-driving-farmers-out-128048" target="_blank">original article</a>.
</body></html>

Don’t blame the Murray-Darling Basin Plan. It’s climate and economic change driving farmers out

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION 
Worldwide, buildings are responsible for 19% of greenhouse gas emissions and our cities are responsible for up to 70%. 
So, designing buildings that produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions is vital to help limit global warming and the threats it poses. But we also need to ensure buildings are designed and constructed to cope with our changing climate conditions to bolster their longevity.
This means the construction sector has a significant role to play in mitigating and adapting to climate change. 
The urgency of rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions was highlighted in the bleak prognosis from the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/">special report</a>.
The IPCC report, released earlier this year, states that “limiting global warming to 1.5C would require rapid, far reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society”.
This includes changes in the way cities currently function, including land use, energy, industry, buildings, and transport.
<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360132318302191">Our research</a> identifies several barriers inhibiting the construction industry’s response to adapting to climate change. 
The current regulatory framework is a key hurdle that many stakeholders within the Australian construction industry raised in our interviews. The <a href="https://www.abcb.gov.au/ncc-online/NCC">National Construction Code</a> doesn’t explicitly address climate change. 
Updating the regulations is an opportunity to set new benchmarks for the industry. The National Construction Code and its associated standards need to be reviewed and strengthened to ensure climate change adaptation and mitigation are addressed.
In the absence of any updated regulations, another barrier is the lack of client demand for buildings to be designed and constructed to address climate change. This sits alongside the perceived additional cost of building and including these mitigation and adaption measures.
Yet many people we interviewed say better regulation to address climate change would be beneficial. This would create a ‘level playing field’ for the industry and encourage innovation in the sector.
Significant climate change impacts will happen within the lifecycle of buildings that are being constructed now. So it’s important to design for these changes today. 
For example, considerations need to be made now to ensure gutters and drains are built to a size that can cope with bigger rainfall events, and to ensure that our homes stay cooler for longer during increasingly hot summers.
Unless we rapidly reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, we will all face significant and catastrophic impacts including increasing drought periods, a spike in the number of extreme heat days, increasing rainfall intensity, and a rising number of extreme events like floods, cyclones, and bushfires. 
These changes will influence the way our economy and society function.
To limit warming to 1.5 degrees (above pre-industrial levels) by 2100, and to limit climate change impacts, we need to reduce our global greenhouse gas emissions, fast – to 50% by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2050. 
As the IPCC’s special report says, achieving this goal will require a rapid transformation of our urban infrastructure systems including transport, the layout of our cities, and the design and construction of buildings. 
If we construct buildings that are unable to withstand future weather conditions, we’ll need more electricity to heat and cool our homes and work places.
But where we build will also be important; the further out, the more likely we’ll see more transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions, like travel modes for work and leisure. We will need to facilitate city growth on sites that aren’t vulnerable to future risks such as sea level rise. 
In addition, risk to operational capacity and building obsolescence will become key considerations for owners and occupiers alike, requiring forward planning and construction of buildings to withstand and cope with future challenges. 
Australia is going through a significant period of population growth. This translates to a large volume of construction, like dwellings and associated urban infrastructure, which is underway in many parts of the country.
It’s critical the construction code is updated to ensure that new buildings going up now address the changes we know are occurring and will continue to escalate in the future. 
Ignoring future climate change in construction is likely to end with many buildings and infrastructure projects becoming redundant, expensive to run or maintain, or even uninhabitable. This creates a plethora of problems for current and future generations.
Our research found all disciplines involved in creating a built environment have a role to play in addressing climate change – architects, urban designers, planners, engineers, builders and constructors are all integral to making a change.
Understanding how these sectors integrate and influence each other, and how they operate within policy and regulatory frameworks, is crucial to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and so limit the harsh consequences of irreversible climate change.
The research was conducted by Dr Anna Hurlimann, Professor Valerie Francis, Dr Georgia Warren-Myers and Dr Geoff Browne from the University of Melbourne’s Faculty of Architecture Building and Planning. It was funded by The Multiplex Research Program Award.
</body></html>

We need to modify how we build cities for a changing climate

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Sweden’s central bank ways it will no longer invest in assets from governments with large climate footprints, even if the yields were high.
What’s happening?
Suddenly, at the level of central banks, Australia is regarded as an investment risk.
On Wednesday Martin Flodén, the deputy governor of Sweden’s central bank, announced that because Australia and Canada were “<a href="https://www.riksbank.se/globalassets/media/tal/engelska/floden/2019/monetary-policy-in-a-changing-world.pdf" target="_blank">not known for good climate work</a>”.
As a result the bank had sold its holdings of bonds issued by the Canadian province of Alberta and by the Australian states of Queensland and Western Australia.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301897/original/file-20191115-47128-1s2eoc3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301897/original/file-20191115-47128-1s2eoc3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> <a class="source" href="https://www.riksbank.se/globalassets/media/tal/engelska/floden/2019/monetary-policy-in-a-changing-world.pdf" target="_blank">Martin Flodén, deputy governor Sveriges Riksbank Central Bank of Sweden</a>
Central banks normally make the news when they change their “cash rate” and households pay less (or more) on their mortgages.
But central banks such as Australia’s Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank, the People’s Bank of China and the US Federal Reserve have broader responsibilities.
They can see climate change affecting their ability to <a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2018/climate-change-and-the-macro-economy-a-critical-review.pdf" target="_blank">manage their economies</a> and deliver <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/fsr/2019/oct/box-c-financial-stability-risks-from-climate-change" target="_blank">financial stability</a>.
<h2>There’s more to central banks than rates</h2>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301909/original/file-20191115-47147-486lgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301909/original/file-20191115-47147-486lgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> Reserve Bank deputy governor Guy Debelle. Extreme events not cyclical. DAVID MOIR/AAP
As an example, the new managing director of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva warned last month that the necessary transition away from fossil fuels would lead to significant amounts of “<a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/central-banks-tune-in-to-climate-change-20191020-p532ev" target="_blank">stranded assets</a>”.
Those assets will be coal mines and oil fields that become worthless, endangering the banks that have lent to develop them. More frequent floods, storms and fires will pose risks for insurance companies. Climate change will make these and other shocks more frequent and more severe.
In a speech in March the deputy governor of Australia’s Reserve Bank <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-dg-2019-03-12" target="_blank">Guy Debelle</a> said we needed to stop thinking of extreme events as cyclical.
"We need to think in terms of trend rather than cycles in the weather. Droughts have generally been regarded (at least economically) as cyclical events that recur every so often. In contrast, climate change is a trend change. The impact of a trend is ongoing, whereas a cycle is temporary."
And he said the changes that will be imposed on us and the changes we will need might be abrupt.
"The transition path to a less carbon-intensive world is clearly quite different depending on whether it is managed as a gradual process or is abrupt. The trend changes aren’t likely to be smooth. There is likely to be volatility around the trend, with the potential for damaging outcomes from spikes above the trend."
Australia’s central bank and others are going further than just responding to the impacts of climate change. They are doing their part to moderate it.
<h2>No more watching from the sidelines</h2>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301911/original/file-20191115-47176-x91igv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301911/original/file-20191115-47176-x91igv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""> </a>Peter Zöllner of the Bank for International Settlements launched the Green Bond Fund. BIS
Over thirty central banks (including Australia’s), and a number of financial supervisory agencies, have created a <a href="https://www.ngfs.net/en" target="_blank">Network for Greening the Financial System</a>.
Its purpose is to enhance the role of the financial system in mobilising finance to support the transitions that will be needed. The US Federal Reserve has not joined yet but is <a href="https://www.bis.org/review/r191111a.pdf" target="_blank">considering how to participate</a>.
One of its credos is that central banks should <a href="https://www.bis.org/review/r191111a.pdf" target="_blank">lead by example</a> in their own investments.
They hold and manage over A$17 trillion. That makes them enormously large investors and a huge influence on global markets.
As part of their traditional focus on the liquidity, safety and returns from assets, they are taking into account climate change in deciding how to invest.
The are increasingly putting their money into “<a href="https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1909f.pdf" target="_blank">green bonds</a>”, which are securities whose proceeds are used to finance projects that combat climate change or the depletion of biodiversity and natural resources.
Over A$300 billion worth of green bonds were issued in 2018, with the total stock now over A$1 trillion.
<h2>Central banks are investing, and setting standards</h2>
While large, that is still less than 1% of the stock of conventional securities. It means green bonds are less liquid and have higher buying and selling costs.
It also means smaller central banks lack the skills to deal with them.
These problems have been addressed by the <a href="https://www.bis.org/" target="_blank">Bank for International Settlements</a>, a bank owned by 60 of the central banks.
In September it launched a <a href="https://www.bis.org/press/p190926.htm" target="_blank">green bond fund</a> that will pool investments from 140 (mostly central bank) clients.
Its products will initially be denominated in US dollars but will later also be available in euros. It will be supported by an advisory committee of the world’s top central bankers.
It is alert to the risk of “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenwashing" target="_blank">greenwashing</a>” and will only buy bonds that comply with the International Capital Market Association’s <a href="https://www.icmagroup.org/green-social-and-sustainability-bonds/green-bond-principles-gbp/" target="_blank">Green Bond Principles</a> or the Climate Bond Initiative’s <a href="https://www.climatebonds.net/standard" target="_blank">Climate Bond Standard</a>.
Launching the fund in Basel, Switzerland, the bank’s head of banking Peter Zöllner said he was
"confident that, by aggregating the investment power of central banks, we can influence the behaviour of market participants and have some impact on how green investment standards develop."
It’s an important role. Traditionally focused on keeping the financial system safe, our central banks are increasingly turning to using their stewardship of the financial system to keep us, and our environment, safe.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126766/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-hawkins-746285" target="_blank">John Hawkins</a>, Assistant professor, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-canberra-865" target="_blank">University of Canberra</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-why-swedens-central-bank-dumped-australian-bonds-126766" target="_blank">original article</a>.
</body></html>

jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Climate change: why Sweden’s central bank dumped Australian bonds

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
The growth of the human population over the last 70 years has exploded from 2 billion to nearly 8 billion, with a compounding net growth of over 30,000 per day. We all breathe out carbon dioxide with every breath. That equates to about 140 billion CO₂ breaths every minute. Isn’t it logical that atmospheric carbon will continue to increase with the birth rate regardless of what we do about fossil fuel reduction?
This question touches on the core of our impact on planetary change. It highlights the exponential growth in the human population, but also homes in on the potential direct input of carbon dioxide from humans, through respiration.
As I explain in more detail below, our breathing does not contribute to the net accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. But population growth, combined with an increase in consumption, is now seen as the <a href="https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/research-news/2015-01-15-new-planetary-dashboard-shows-increasing-human-impact" target="_blank">main driver of change in the Earth system</a>.
Humans: a moment in geological time
Earth has been around for 4.56 billion years. The <a href="https://www.livescience.com/1804-greatest-mysteries-life-arise-earth" target="_blank">earliest evidence for life on Earth</a> comes from fossilised mats of cyanobacteria that are about 3.7 billion years old.
From around 700 million years ago, and certainly from 540 million years ago, life exploded into its present myriad forms, from molluscs to lung fish, reptiles, insects, plants, fishes and mammals – culminating in hominids and finally Homo sapiens. Genetic studies suggest <a href="https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/overview-of-hominin-evolution-89010983/" target="_blank">hominids evolved from primates around 6 million years ago</a>, with the oldest hominid fossil dating from 4.4 million years ago in East Africa.
Our species appeared around 200,000 to 300,000 years ago, a blink of an eye in geological terms. From Africa, Homo sapiens migrated through Europe and Asia and spread across the world, at lightning speeds.
Part of the question is about a putative link between human biological functions and climate. Homo sapiens is <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1001127" target="_blank">one of more than 28 million living species today</a>, and some <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-011-5874-9_7" target="_blank">35 billion species that have ever lived on Earth</a>. There has always been a link between life and Earth’s atmosphere, and perhaps the clearest indicator is oxygen.
Life, carbon and climate
Cyanobacteria were the first organisms to master photosynthesis and <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.pnas.org/content/96/20/10955" target="_blank">began adding oxygen to Earth’s early atmosphere</a>, producing levels of 2% by 1 billion years ago. Today oxygen levels are at 20%.
While people inhale oxygen and exhale carbon dioxide (billions of tonnes each year), this does <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2009/08/are-you-heating-the-planet-when-you-breathe" target="_blank">not represent new carbon in the atmosphere</a>, but rather recycled carbon that had been taken up by the animals and plants we eat. Furthermore, the hard parts of human skeletons are potential carbon stores, if buried sufficiently deep.
There is a constant cycling of carbon between geological, oceanographic and biological processes. Homo sapiens is part of this carbon cycle that plays out at the Earth’s surface. Like all living organisms, we derive the carbon we need from our immediate environment and give it up again through breathing, living and dying.
Carbon is only added to the atmosphere if it is taken out of long-term geological stores such as carbon-rich sediments, oil, natural gas and coal.
Planetary impact of humans
But the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth" target="_blank">remarkable growth in human population</a> is surely the critical issue. Ten thousand years ago, there were 1 million people on Earth. By 1800, there were 1 billion, 3 billion by 1960 and almost 8 billion today.
When these figures are plotted on a graph, the growth line looks almost vertical from the 1800s onwards. <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/17/worlds-population-is-projected-to-nearly-stop-growing-by-the-end-of-the-century/" target="_blank">Population growth may eventually flatten out</a>, but only at around 10-11 billion.
Alongside the unprecedented population growth of humans has been the <a href="https://www.ipbes.net/news/million-threatened-species-thirteen-questions-answers" target="_blank">loss of many non-human species</a> (10,000 extinctions per million populations per year, or <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/30/humanity-wiped-out-animals-since-1970-major-report-finds" target="_blank">60% of animal populations since 1970</a>), the rapid loss of wilderness habitat and consequent growth in farmed land, over-fishing (with up to <a href="http://blogs.edf.org/edfish/2012/07/11/fao-reports-87-of-the-worlds-fisheries-are-overexploited-or-fully-exploited/" target="_blank">87% of fisheries fully exploited</a>), and a staggering growth in global car numbers (from zero in the 1920s to 1 billion in 2013 and a projected <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/04/the-number-of-cars-worldwide-is-set-to-double-by-2040" target="_blank">2 billion by 2040</a>).
The <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nmic/copper-statistics-and-information" target="_blank">world production of copper</a> is an instructive proxy for human global impacts. As with many commodity curves, the trend from 1900, and particularly from the 1950s, is exponential. In 1900 around half-a-million tonnes of copper was produced worldwide. Today it is 18 million tonnes per year, with no sign of lowering consumption rates. Copper is the feedstock for much of modern-day and future green technologies.
Most parts of the world now experience material consumption as never before. But serious inequality remains, with over <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/10/17/nearly-half-the-world-lives-on-less-than-550-a-day" target="_blank">3 billion living on less than US$5.50 a day</a>, and a <a href="https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/just-8-men-own-same-wealth-half-world" target="_blank">tiny percentage who own so much</a>.
Some argue that it is not the numbers of people on Earth that count, but rather the way we consume and share. Whatever the politics and economics, the gross consumption level of billions of humans is, surely, the main cause of planetary change, especially since 1950. Present-day atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide are one of many symptoms of human impact.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126671/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Michael Petterson, Professor of Geology, Auckland University of Technology.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-how-growth-in-population-and-consumption-drives-planetary-change-126671" target="_blank">original article</a>.
</body></html>

Climate explained: how growth in population and consumption drives planetary change

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
There is a phrase in the novel East of Eden that springs to mind every time politicians speak of “drought-proofing” Australia: 
"And it never failed that during the dry years the people forgot about the rich years, and during the wet years they lost all memory of the dry years. It was always that way."
While author John Steinbeck was referring to California’s Salinas Valley, the phrase is particularly pertinent to Australia where the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a020.shtml#targetText=La%20Ni%C3%B1a%20occurs%20when%20equatorial,and%20eastern%20tropical%20Pacific%20Ocean.&amp;targetText=As%20a%20result%2C%20heavy%20rainfall,to%20the%20north%20of%20Australia." target="_blank">El Niño-Southern Oscillation</a> exerts a profound influence. Water availability varies greatly across the country, both in space and time. El Niño conditions bring droughts and devastating bushfires, while La Niña is accompanied by violent rainfall, floods and cyclones.
This variability is innate to the Australian environment. And now, climate change means that in some regions, the dry years are becoming drier and the wet years are becoming less frequent. Managing water resources under a changing climate and burgeoning population requires innovative and realistic solutions that are different to those that have worked in the past.
Drought-proofing is impossible
Planning for the dry years involves setting sustainable usage limits, using more than one source of water, efficiency improvements, managed aquifer recharge, water recycling and evaluation of the best usage of water resources. It does not <a href="https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/social-affairs/australia-should-never-be-%E2%80%98drought-proofed%E2%80%99-again" target="_blank">involve misleading claims of drought-proofing</a> that infer we can somehow tame the unruly nature of our arid environment instead of planning and preparing for reality.
Unlike managing for the wet and dry periods, drought-proofing seeks to negate dry periods through infrastructure schemes such as large dams (subject to huge evaporative losses) and dubious river diversions. It fails to acknowledge the intrinsic variability of water availability in Australia, and modify our behaviour accordingly.
The reality is that in many parts of the country, <a href="http://www.groundwater.com.au/media/W1siZiIsIjIwMTQvMDMvMjUvMDFfNTFfMTNfMTMzX0dyb3VuZHdhdGVyX2luX0F1c3RyYWxpYV9GSU5BTF9mb3Jfd2ViLnBkZiJdXQ/Groundwater%20in%20Australia_FINAL%20for%20web.pdf" target="_blank">groundwater is the sole source</a> of water and the climate is <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/water/waterinaustralia/" target="_blank">very dry</a>. A cornerstone of the recently launched <a href="https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/mccormack/media-release/national-water-grid-authority-future" target="_blank">$100 million National Water Grid Authority</a> is the construction of more dams. But dams need rain to fill them, because without rain, all we have is empty dams. And we have enough of those already.
A history of denial
Just because Dorothea Mackellar wrote of “droughts and flooding rains” over 100 years ago, it doesn’t mean water management should proceed in the same vein it always has.
Australia has always had a variable climate, which changes significantly from year to year and also decade to decade. This not the same as a <a href="https://www.pacificclimatefutures.net/en/help/climate-projections/understanding-climate-variability-and-change/#targetText=Climate%20is%20the%20long%20term,trend%20in%20the%20mean%20climate." target="_blank">long-term climatic trend</a>, better known as climate change.
Climate change is making parts of Australia even drier. Rainfall in the south-eastern part of Australia is <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=csiro:EP127070&amp;dsid=DS3" target="_blank">projected to keep declining</a>. We cannot rely on blind faith that rains will fill dams once more because they have in the past.
Yet inevitably, during the dry years, claims that Australia can be “drought-proofed” are renewed. Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack <a href="https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/mccormack/media-release/national-water-grid-authority-future" target="_blank">recently praised </a>the <a href="https://go-gale-com.ezp.lib.unimelb.edu.au/ps/retrieve.do?tabID=T002&amp;resultListType=RESULT_LIST&amp;searchResultsType=SingleTab&amp;searchType=AdvancedSearchForm&amp;currentPosition=3&amp;docId=GALE%7CA202253089&amp;docType=Essay&amp;sort=Relevance&amp;contentSegment=ZAHD&amp;prodId=PPWH&amp;contentSet=GALE%7CA202253089&amp;searchId=R1&amp;userGroupName=unimelb&amp;inPS=true" target="_blank">Bradfield scheme</a>, an 80 year old infrastructure project intending to divert northern river flows inland. It has been <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-18/fact-file-bradfield-scheme-drought-relief/11216616" target="_blank">so thoroughly debunked</a> on all scales, it is better described as a pipe-dream than piping scheme. It has no place in reasonable water management discourse.
The concept of drought-proofing harks back to the days of European settlement. Early water management techniques were more appropriate for verdant English fields than the arid plains of Australia.
In the early twentieth century, water resources were vigorously developed, with government-sponsored irrigation schemes and large dams constructed. During this time, little thought was given to sustainability. Instead, the goal was to stimulate inland settlement, agriculture and industry. Development was pursued despite the cost and ill-advised nature of irrigation in particular areas.
Shifting long entrenched perceptions of water management
All this said, irrigation certainly has its place: it supports a quarter of Australia’s agricultural output. And there are substantial efforts underway to rebalance water usage between irrigation and the environment.
However, acknowledgement of the relative scarcity of water in certain parts of Australia has only really occurred in the last 30 years or so.
Widespread droughts in the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/lookup/1301.0Feature%20Article151988" target="_blank">late 1970s and early 1980s</a> highlighted the importance of effective water management and shifted long-entrenched perceptions of irrigation and development. <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.crcpress.com/Water-Policy-in-Australia-The-Impact-of-Change-and-Uncertainty/Crase/p/book/9781933115986" target="_blank">Water reforms were passed</a>, mandating future water development be environmentally sustainable development, which meant, for the first time, water resource management sought a balance between economic, social and environmental needs.
Antiquated ideas about drought-proofing, pushed by politicians, promise much yet deliver little. They distract attention and siphon funds from realistic solutions, or actually re-evaluating where and how we use our limited water resources.
We need practical, effective and well-considered management such as water recycling, efficiency measures and source-divestment that accounts for both shorter term climatic variability and long term changes in temperature and rainfall due to climate change. A big part of this is <a href="https://www.wentworthgroup.org/docs/Can_We_Myth_Proof_Australia.pdf" target="_blank">managing expectations through education</a>.
Attempting to drought-proof Australia is not “managing for the dry periods”, as advocates claim. It is sticking our heads in the dry, salty sand and pretending the land is cool and green and wet.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124504/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Emma Kathryn White, PhD Candidate, Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-cant-drought-proof-australia-and-trying-is-a-fools-errand-124504" target="_blank">original article</a>.
</body></html>

Climate change

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Climate change

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News