Aviation

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Move aside electric cars, another disruption set to occur in the next decade is being ignored in current <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-18/coalition-says-it-is-not-anti-electric-cars/11029222" target="_blank">Australian transport infrastructure debates</a>: electric aviation.
Electric aircraft technology is rapidly developing <a href="https://www.magnix.aero/about-us/">locally</a> and overseas, with the aim of potentially <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/electric-planes-promise-big-benefits-air-passengers-planet-ncna862001" target="_blank">reducing emissions and operating costs by over 75%</a>. Other countries are already <a href="http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20180814-norways-plan-for-a-fleet-of-electric-planes" target="_blank">planning for 100% electric short-haul plane fleets</a> within a couple of decades.
Australia relies heavily on air transport. The country has the <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/current/airports-2019/draft/airports-draft-overview.pdf" target="_blank">most domestic airline seats per person</a> in the world. We have also witnessed flight <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/current/airports-2019/issues/airports-issues.pdf" target="_blank">passenger numbers double</a> over the past 20 years.
Infrastructure projects are typically planned 20 or more years ahead. This makes it more important than ever that we start to adopt a disruptive lens in planning. It’s time to start accounting for electric aviation if we are to capitalise on its potential economic and environmental benefits.
What can these aircraft do?
There are <a href="https://mashable.com/feature/electric-airplanes-future-flight/#ZR4G.vl9cZq3" target="_blank">two main types</a> of electric aircraft: <a href="https://www.harbourair.com/harbour-air-and-magnix-partner-to-build-worlds-first-all-electric-airline/" target="_blank">short-haul planes</a> and vertical take-off and landing (<a href="https://lilium.com/" target="_blank">VTOL</a>) vehicles, including <a href="https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/News/passenger-carrying-drones-now-reality" target="_blank">drones</a>.
The key issue affecting the uptake of electric aircraft is the need to ensure enough <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612351/top-battery-scientists-have-a-plan-to-electrify-flight-and-slash-airline-emissions/" target="_blank">battery energy density</a> to support commercial flights. While some <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-arent-there-electric-airplanes-yet-103955" target="_blank">major impediments</a> are still to be overcome, we are likely to see short-haul electric flights locally before 2030. <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-04/first-electric-plane-passenger-flights-in-australia-to-rottnest/9304424" target="_blank">Small, two-to-four-seat, electric planes</a> are already <a href="https://particle.scitech.org.au/tech/aussie-first-electric-plane-takes-to-wa-skies/" target="_blank">flying in Australia today</a>.
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_UhOYtq1_Ag?wmode=transparent&amp;start=0" frameborder="0" width="440" height="260"></iframe>
An electric plane service has been launched in Perth.
A scan of global electric aircraft development suggests rapid advancements are likely over the coming decade. By 2022, <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/siemens-to-supply-motors-for-eviations-all-electric-airplanes" target="_blank">nine-seat planes</a> could be doing short-haul <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-27/electric-passenger-planes-four-years-away-says-tech-firm/10401950" target="_blank">(500-1,000km)</a> flights. <a href="https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/easyjet-outlines-progress-on-electric-jet-453088/" target="_blank">Before 2030</a>, small-to-medium <a href="https://electrek.co/2018/10/29/electric-flying-is-becoming-a-reality-says-easyjet-ceo-electric-plane/" target="_blank">150-seat planes</a> could be flying up to 500 kilometres. Short-range (<a href="https://www.dezeen.com/2019/01/28/boeing-autonomous-passenger-drone-flying-car/">100</a>-<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelgoldstein/2019/01/14/bell-nexus-vtol-air-taxi-makes-a-splash-at-2019-consumer-electronics-show/#2c8801fb2e31" target="_blank">250 km</a>) VTOL aircraft could also become viable in the 2020s.
If these breakthroughs occur, we could see <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170405005365/en/Zunum-Aero-Developing-Hybrid-Electric-Aircraft-Fast-Affordable" target="_blank">small, commercial, electric aircraft</a> operating on some of Australia’s busiest air routes, including Sydney-Melbourne or Brisbane, as well as opening up new, cost-effective travel routes to and from regional Australia.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267813/original/file-20190405-180014-57189i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267813/original/file-20190405-180014-57189i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Possible short-haul electric aircraft ranges of 500km and 1,000km around Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. Author provided
Why go electric?
In addition to new export opportunities, as shown by <a href="https://thedriven.io/2019/04/22/australias-magnix-chosen-to-power-eviation-electric-aircraft/%E2%80%8B">MagniX</a>, electric aviation could greatly reduce the financial and environmental costs of air transport in Australia.
Two major <a href="/news">components of current airline costs</a> are fuel (27%) and maintenance (11%). Electric aircraft could deliver <a href="https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/eviation-secures-funding-for-all-electric-alice-454830/" target="_blank">significant price reductions</a> through reduced energy and maintenance costs.
Short-haul electric aircraft are particularly compelling given the inherent energy efficiency, simplicity and longevity of the battery-powered motor and drivetrain. No alternative fuel sources can deliver the same level of savings.
With conventional planes, a high-passenger, high-frequency model comes with a limiting <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920912000703" target="_blank">environmental cost</a> of burning fuel. Smaller electric aircraft can avoid the fuel costs and emissions resulting from high-frequency service models. This can lead to increased competition between airlines and between airports, further lowering costs.
What are the implications of this disruption?
Air transport is generally organised in combinations of <a href="https://aeronauticsonline.com/the-airline-economics-of-the-bicycle-wheel-point-to-point-vs-hub-and-spoke-flying/" target="_blank">hub-and-spoke or point-to-point models</a>. Smaller, more energy-efficient planes <a href="https://blueswandaily.com/the-route-revolution-how-next-generation-aircraft-are-transforming-global-route-maps/" target="_blank">encourage point-to-point flights</a>, which can also be the spokes on long-haul hub models. This means electric aircraft could lead to higher-frequency services, enabling more competitive point-to-point flights, and <a href="https://research-repository.griffith.edu.au/bitstream/handle/10072/56018/89299_1.pdf;sequence=1" target="_blank">increase the dispersion of air services</a> to smaller airports.
While benefiting smaller airports, electric aircraft could also improve the efficiency of some larger constrained airports.
For example, Australia’s largest airport, Sydney Airport, is <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/current/airports-2019/draft/airports-draft-overview.pdf" target="_blank">efficient in both operations and costs</a>. However, due to noise and pollution, physical and regulatory constraints – mainly aircraft movement caps and a curfew – can lead to congestion. With a significant number of sub-1,000km flights originating from Sydney, low-noise, zero-emission, electric aircraft could overcome some of these constraints, increasing airport efficiency and lowering costs.
The increased availability of short-haul, affordable air travel could actively compete with other transport services, including <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X11000837" target="_blank">high-speed rail</a> (HSR). Alternatively, if the planning of HSR projects takes account of electric aviation, these services could improve connectivity at regional rail hubs. This could strengthen the business cases for HSR projects by reducing the number of stops and travel times, and increasing overall network coverage.
What about air freight?
Electric aircraft could also help air freight. International air freight volumes have <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/current/airports-2019/draft/airports-draft-overview.pdf" target="_blank">increased by 80% in the last 20 years</a>. Electric aircraft provide an opportunity to efficiently transport high-value products to key regional transport hubs, as well as <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-and-ups-are-betting-big-on-drone-delivery-2018-3/?r=AU&amp;IR=T" target="_blank">directly to consumers via VTOL vehicles or drones</a>.
If properly planned, electric aviation could complement existing freight services, including <a href="https://www.dezeen.com/2017/02/23/ups-drone-launching-delivery-truck-design-technology-news/" target="_blank">road</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/26/volans-i-drones-can-haul-cargo-for-500-miles-and-land-on-a-moving-ship" target="_blank">sea</a> and air services. This would reduce the overall cost of transporting high-value goods.
Plan now for the coming disruption
Electric aircraft could significantly disrupt short-haul air transport within the next decade. How quickly will this technology affect conventional infrastructure? It is difficult to say given the many unknown factors. The uncertainties include step-change technologies, such as <a href="https://www.maketecheasier.com/solid-state-batteries/" target="_blank">solid-state batteries</a>, that could radically accelerate the uptake and capabilities of electric aircraft.
What we do know today is that Australia is already struggling with disruptive technological changes in energy, telecommunications and even other transport segments. These challenges highlight the need to start taking account of disruptive technology when planning infrastructure. Where we see <a href="https://about.bnef.com/blog/energy-storage-620-billion-investment-opportunity-2040/" target="_blank">billions of dollars being invested</a> in technological transformation, we need to assume disruption is coming.
With electric aircraft we have some time to prepare, so let’s not fall behind the eight ball again – as has <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/motoring/huge-problem-with-car-prices-too-few-affordable-electric-vehicles-in-australia/news-story/64a87eb32a4a8d8c2fdc9664420058eb" target="_blank">happened with electric cars</a> – and start to plan ahead.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jake-whitehead-3312" target="_blank">Jake Whitehead</a>, Research Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805" target="_blank">The University of Queensland</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michael-kane-442924" target="_blank">Michael Kane</a>, Research Associate, Curtin University Sustainability Policy Institute, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/curtin-university-873" target="_blank">Curtin University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/get-set-for-take-off-in-electric-aircraft-the-next-transport-disruption-114178" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Get set for take-off in electric aircraft, the next transport disruption

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Air travel data company OAG recently published data that assessed the world's top ten city pairs by revenue - which airline makes the most money on an individual route - and Qantas and its Melbourne-Sydney route was given second place.

Between April 2017 and March 2018, <a href="https://www.oag.com/blog/billion-dollar-route">OAG reports</a> Qantas earned $854,692,402 USD ($1.051 billion AUD using March 2018 exchange rates) by flying between Melbourne &amp; Sydney.

The highest earning route was British Airways' London-Heathrow to New York-JFK route ($1,037,724,867 USD / $1.276 billion AUD) and the third highest earning route was Emirates' Dubai to London-Heathrow route ($819,409,702 USD / $1.008 billion AUD).

As OAG points out, 5 of the top 10 routes have London on one side of the city pair but all but the Australian route are either trans-continental or inter-continental flights (New York to Los Angeles, San Francisco; Toronto to Vancouver; London to Hong Kong, Singapore, New York, Doha, Dubai; and Sydney to Singapore).  

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public//pictures/article-images/top_10_revenue.png" rel="gallery-all" title="Top 10 Revenue Routes - image: OAG"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="361" src="/sites/urban.melbourne/files//styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/top_10_revenue.png?itok=MCbR58mg" title="Top 10 Revenue Routes - image: OAG" width="580"></a>

<figcaption>Top 10 Revenue Routes - image: <a href="https://www.oag.com/blog/billion-dollar-route">OAG</a></figcaption></figure>Melbourne and Sydney is a considerably shorter route compared to the North American trans-continental flights and the lack of any other major city pairs located within 1000km of each other in the top 10 list provided by OAG speaks to the heavy reliance on aviation we have in Australia.

In the top air routes by traffic (either the number of frequencies or the name of passengers flown), those city pairs are dominated by domestic routes around the world, especially those that are less than 1000km apart.  

Seoul to Jeju, Tokyo to Sapporo, Tokyo to Fukuoka, Tokyo to Osaka, Delhi to Mumbai, Melbourne to Sydney, Beijing to Shanghai, Sao Paulo to Rio de Janiero and Johannesburg to Cape Town have all at some stage made it to a 10 busiest air route list.

With the exception of Tokyo to Osaka, and Beijing to Shanghai, those common city pairs all have very little in the way of fast land transport links that would compete on a time basis with aviation. (Japan's Shinkansen network technically reaches Fukuoka and Sapporo, for the most part, however, the travel times can be upwards of 5 hours by rail, Beijing to Shanghai via the fastest train still takes a touch under 5 hours).

None of the aforementioned top busiest routes get a mention in the OAG routes by revenue release, except for Melbourne to Sydney.

The prevailing dismissive argument for high-speed rail in Australia amongst advocates and anyone engaged in transport issues - those who like to highlight existing problems or those who are passionate about how we might do things differently - is that Australia's population is too sparse for it to work in this country.

Casual reminder: the numbers above are for Qantas only (I assume it also includes Jetstar) - Virgin Australia, although the smaller of the two mainline operators has a significant amount of services flying between the two cities each day as well, the real amount of money earned by airlines between Melbourne &amp; Sydney will be much more than just over $1billion AUD per annum.

Seeing the dollar amounts associated with the very high volume of people who travel between Melbourne and Sydney offers up some fairly significant food for thought. The current revenue that Qantas earns roughly correlates with the projected revenue figures from the 2012 &amp; Rudd Government-era East Coast High-Speed Rail study.

In that <a href="https://infrastructure.gov.au/rail/publications/high-speed-rail-study-reports/files/HSR_Phase_2_Chapter_8.pdf">study</a>, it projected roughly $2 billion in revenue shortly after the opening of a high-speed rail link between Melbourne &amp; Sydney (Sydney &amp; Canberra would open first with a projected ~$500 million in operator revenue).
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Alastair Taylor

Airline revenue data on Melbourne-Sydney air route is food for thought

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The results of The Wealth Report Attitudes Survey, which this year are based on responses from almost 900 of the world’s leading private bankers and wealth managers, offer an window on the issues that are influencing UHNWI investment and lifestyle decisions, according to Knight Frank’s latest report.
According to the Attitudes Survey, only 15 percent of UHNWIs use private aviation for the majority of their business and personal flights.
However, the pattern varies widely around the world.
Latin America’s wealthy residents, perhaps worried about the risk of kidnapping, are the biggest users, with 40 percent opting to go private.
Just 4 percent of Australasian UHNWIs regularly choose to take a private jet, and in Asia their usage still lags behind the region’s rapid rise in wealth creation – only 9 percent of UHNWIs routinely travel on non-commercial flights.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/1/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-01%20at%201.26.30%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/1/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-01%20at%201.26.30%20pm.jpg" alt="">
In-depth data supplied by industry analysts JETNET and WINGX, confirm these broad patterns, but also reveal some striking emerging trends.
While the US (12,717), Mexico (950) and Brazil (786) are the top three nations by some margin when it comes to fleet size, JETNET’s figures show numbers are rising fast in Asia.
Hong Kong (+535 percent), Taiwan (+367 percent), China (+347 percent) and Macau (+300 percent) all feature in the top 10 list of locations where growth has been fastest over the past 10 years. China, with 277 jets, now claims eighth position in overall ownership levels.
In terms of flight numbers America dominates – over 75 percent of the world’s 1,000 busiest routes are within the US.
“Business aviation is deeply embedded as a complement to and in some cases a replacement for scheduled airline services,” says Richard Koe, Managing Director of WINGX.
“It wouldn’t be unusual for a firm with a turnover of US$50m to have its own plane,” confirms Hardy Sohanpal of international operator Global Jet Concept.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/1/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-01%20at%201.26.43%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/1/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-01%20at%201.26.43%20pm.jpg" alt="">
As our data shows, geopolitics can have a major impact on private aviation. Traffic between Cuba and the US, for example, has taken off sharply since 2012, while the opposite is true of flights between Russia and Ukraine.
Looking ahead, the Chinese market is set to see strong growth, says Mr Koe.
“The government is starting to see the importance of business jets as a competitive tool to support corporations in pursuit of regional trade opportunities.”
There is also the potential for growth in the US depending on how the new administration’s policies play out, adds Mr Sohanpal.
“We have had a number of enquiries recently from construction and finance companies.”
But growth in Latin America is likely to be more muted, particularly in oil-dependent countries like Venezuela, he notes.
“There are a lot of aircraft being put up for sale at the moment and now is the perfect opportunity to trade up or buy first time.”
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/1/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-01%20at%201.26.58%20pm.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/1/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-01%20at%201.26.58%20pm.png" alt="">
Globally, however, private jet numbers are likely to rise as the desire to travel efficiently with maximum privacy becomes more of a priority for corporations and private individuals, says Mr Sohanpal.
“The introduction of new apps and charter models that are competing to become the Uber of the airways is also likely to attract those who shuttle frequently between cities travelling first or business class.”
Definition: UHNWI: Ultra-high-net-worth individual – someone with a net worth of over US$30m excluding their primary residence and HNWI: High-net-worth individual – someone with a net worth of over US$1m excluding their primary residence.
 
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