2021 Federal Budget

EXPERT INSIGHT

Ahead of the definitive official read of the economy from the treasury in the budget on <a href="https://budget.gov.au/index.htm">Tuesday</a>, the Reserve Bank has given us two special insights into its own thinking in the space of 14 hours.

They suggest that (first) the economy is improving, and (second) the bank is not going to let up on driving that improvement, not for anything &mdash; including concern about climbing home prices &mdash; until it has pushed unemployment down and wage growth back up to where it believes it should be.

The first insight was in Deputy Governor Guy Debelle&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2021/sp-dg-2021-05-06.html">Shann Memorial Lecture</a> on Thursday night. The second was in Friday&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2021/may/pdf/statement-on-monetary-policy-2021-05.pdf">Statement on Monetary Policy</a>

Growth without inflation

The statement emphasised that the although the bank expects economic growth to bounce back fairly strongly, getting inflation back within the bank&rsquo;s 2-3% target band and getting wages growth up will take much longer

As the statement put it:

&quot;Despite the stronger outlook for output and the labour market, inflation and wages growth are expected to remain low, picking up only gradually.&quot;

On one measure just <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release">1.1%</a>, the lowest on record, underlying inflation is to climb to 1.5% over the course of 2021 before gradually climbing to close to 2% by mid 2023.

It&rsquo;s well short of the bank&rsquo;s target of 2-3% which is only likely to be achieved with much higher wages growth driven by much deeper inroads into unemployment.\

Those inroads will be easier to achieve if COVID is firmly under control.

The bank explicitly linked its forecasts of an improving economy to an assumption that Australia&rsquo;s vaccine rollout accelerates in the second half of the year. It could have added to that (but didn&rsquo;t) the importance of getting purpose-built quarantine facilities up and running.

Its baseline forecast has economic growth of 4% in the year to June 2022 and 3% in the year to June 2023.

But there is a fairly wide range around its downside and upside scenarios.

Economic growth might be as low as 2.5% or as high as 5% in 2022 and as low as 2% and as high as 3% in 2023.

Similarly, the unemployment forecast is somewhere between 4.25% and 5.25% by June 2022 and in a very wide range of 3.75% and 5.5% by June 2023.

These forecasts produce below-target inflation forecasts of between 1.5% and 2% in June 2022 and 1.5% to 2.25% in June 2023.

What the bank will do to help drive the upside scenario, and what else will need to happen, was laid out by Debelle in Thursday night&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2021/sp-dg-2021-05-06.html">Shann Memorial Lecture</a>.

The Debelle Doctrine

Adjectives like &ldquo;seminal&rdquo; are bandied about liberally these days, but for me, Debelle&rsquo;s speech on <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2021/sp-dg-2021-05-06.html">Monetary Policy During COVID</a> was a masterpiece.

He began by outlining the suite of measures the bank introduced from the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020. They involved

<ul>
	<li>
	cutting the cash rate to a record low of 0.25% and then cutting it again to 0.1%
	</li>
	<li>
	undertaking to not increase the cash rate target until the bank is confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2&ndash;3% target band
	</li>
	<li>
	cutting the rate paid on private banks&rsquo; exchange settlement balances with the bank to 0.1% and then to 0.0%
	</li>
	<li>
	buying enough three-year government bonds to target a yield of 0.25%, later <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-the-reserve-bank-is-going-to-bat-for-australia-like-never-before-149311">0.1%</a>
	</li>
	<li>
	guaranteeing to buy $5 billion of five-year and ten-year state and Commonwealth week-in week-out <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-the-reserve-bank-is-going-to-bat-for-australia-like-never-before-149311">whatever the economic circumstances</a>
	</li>
	<li>
	buying bonds as needed to address the &ldquo;dysfunction&rdquo; in the bond market
	</li>
	<li>
	offering banks cheap lending finance through a new <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/mkt-operations/term-funding-facility/overview.html">term funding facility</a>
	</li>
	<li>
	ensuring that the financial system has sufficient liquidity
	</li>
</ul>

Debelle methodically described how each of these measures are likely to flow through into economic activity.

That is, he articulated what economists call the &ldquo;transmission mechanism&rdquo; &mdash; how the measures work.

And then he delivered the setup for the punchline.

The tools the bank is using might affect all sorts of things, including house prices. But the bank plans to focus on just one thing &mdash; getting unemployment down until it gets inflation back up to its target band.

Then the punchline itself: the bank will do this even if it leads to higher house prices

<blockquote>
there are a number of tools that can be used to address the issue. But I do not think that monetary policy is one of the tools. Monetary policy is focussed on supporting the economic recovery and achieving its goals in terms of employment and inflation
</blockquote>

It was important to remember that while housing prices may not rise as fast without low interest rates, unemployment would definitely be materially higher without low interest rates.

Unemployment has serious consequences.

What it all means

The Debelle Doctrine is that the bank will focus on a narrow range of objectives, and will not be timid about using the tools in its arsenal to achieve them.

This may not be a seismic shift, but it is significant.

It gives the bank a much clearer focus; it gives others a much better way to judge how it is performing; and it makes clear that if the government is concerned about rising house prices, it&rsquo;ll have to do something itself (perhaps by tightening the tax rules governing capital gains and negative gearing).

Debelle produced a clear, precise, and authoritative statement of what the Reserve Bank can, should, and will do.

In a word, it was gubernatorial.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160171/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" u="" width="1" wkje2jqm7="" />

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414">UNSW</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-the-rba-wants-to-cut-unemployment-and-nothing-not-even-soaring-home-prices-will-stand-in-its-way-160171">original article</a>.

The RBA suggest that (first) the economy is improving, and (second) the bank is not going to let up on driving that improvement, not for anything

The RBA wants to cut unemployment, and not even soaring home prices will stand in its way: Richard Holden

EXPERT INSIGHT

Make no mistake, this is a big spending budget.

The policy approach was appropriate highlighted by worthy social programs. However, a better balance between short term tax initiatives and genuine tax reform would have been a more effective approach.

New stimulus initiatives, headlined by the surprise extension to the instant asset write-offs for businesses, are worth 4.1 per cent of GDP over four years &ndash; about eight times the pace of the pre-election budget in 2019.

For perspective, the government&rsquo;s stimulus spending in last year&rsquo;s budget following the biggest economic shock since the 1930s was a little higher at 5.5 per cent of GDP, but not materially so.

The disruption from COVID and this associated stimulus response is forecast to see net debt lift from 19.2% of GDP in 2018/19 to 34.2% in 2021/22 and 40.9% in 2024/25.

Despite this sharp increase in debt the cost of servicing the debt is forecast to hold at a modest 0.7% of GDP due to the low interest rate environment.

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An early use of policies to reduce debt would have been at the expense of allowing the economy to operate at its potential.

As with other countries debt ratios are unlikely to return to pre COVID levels.

Any return to sustained full employment would see significant budget repair although the public sector is still likely to cycle around much higher debt ratios than we saw before the advent of COVID.

Despite employment levels now being above pre-COVID-19 levels and GDP expected to boom this year, the government is clearly going all in to &ldquo;secure the recovery&rdquo; and drive the unemployment rate down faster.

This drive for growth strategy, along with appropriate commitments to additional services, sees fiscal and monetary policy firmly working together to reach full employment.

The government defines full employment as 4.5 per cent, although that level is not forecast to be reached until mid-2024. Westpac &ndash; and I believe the Reserve Bank &ndash; sees it as 4 per cent or even a little lower.

BILL EVANS&nbsp;is the Chief Economist at Westpac

The policy approach was appropriate highlighted by worthy social programs, however, a better balance between short term tax initiatives and genuine tax reform would have been a more effective approach

bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Federal Budget 2021: Genuine tax reform stuck in the too-hard basket: Bill Evans

The recently unveiled Federal Budget is expected to support home ownership aspirations for thousands of households, according to Housing Industry Association (HIA) managing director, Graham Wolfe.

&ldquo;This budget will make a difference in the lives of thousands of Australians,&rdquo; he said.

A majority of the housing schemes are targeted to help first home buyers bridge the deposit gap and bring the aspiration of home ownership within reach of a broader range of Australians.

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Under new measures, budding first home buyers will now be able to access up to $50,000 of their own concessional and non-concessional contributions that they can put towards a first home deposit.

This presents an expansion of $20,000 on the previous $30,000 limit that could be released under the First Home Super Saver Scheme, which has been welcomed by the property industry.

The changes &ldquo;provide greater incentive and motivation for tens of thousands of young, aspirational Australians to save a deposit for their first home through a tax effective scheme&rdquo;, said Wolfe.

CEO of Master Builders Australia, Denita Wawn, said: &ldquo;Harnessing the power of compound interest in superannuation to save a deposit makes sense.&rdquo;

The Government has also committed to an extra 10,000 places for the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme, helping first home buyers secure a property with a five per cent deposit.

<h2>A win for single parents</h2>

<img alt="" height="667" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/shutterstock_1156208419.jpg" width="1000" />

The Budget also expands on the success of the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme with the new Family Home Guarantee, which will assist single custodial parents buy a home with a deposit as low as 2 per cent.

&ldquo;These measures build off the economy-saving success of the HomeBuilder scheme by providing more focused support where it is most needed,&rdquo; Property Council chief executive Ken Morrison said.

This new scheme will deliver single parents, the overwhelming majority of whom are women, a step up to gaining the security that comes with home ownership.

&ldquo;Matching the 10,000 places still to open under the Deposit Scheme from July with a new allocation of 10,000 places under the New Home Guarantee will help ensure first home buyers can choose to buy either a new home or an existing home&rdquo;, Wolfe said.

Single custodial parents will need to wait until next week for a fact sheet with further information on eligibility criteria.

<h2>Other measures</h2>

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Other measures revealed by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg also help support workers, downsizers and broader communities.

The budget has committed to lowering the minimum age for downsizer contribution from 65 to 60, allowing a one-off post-tax contribution of up to $300,000 per person when they sell their home.

The Federal Government has also announced additional funding under the National Housing and Homelessness Agreement.

&ldquo;A further $124.7 million to assist states and territories to meet their social and community housing requirements will help meet growing demand for housing support&rdquo;, said Morrison.

Master Builders also announced they were pleased to see the Federal Government stepping up to assist the states and territories with their role to provide community and social housing, following calls for boosted social housing investments.

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Other measures also include an extension of the Boosting Apprentice Commencement wage subsidy which has helped restore confidence in job training to grow the next generation of homebuilders.

The government has also continued its 10-year, $110 billion spend on infrastructure, which includes $15.2 billion over the next ten years for new rail and road infrastructure projects, helping build communities.

&ldquo;All up, this is a budget for all Australians. It is very welcome and is strongly supported&rdquo;, Urban Taskforce chief executive Tom Forrest said.

The recently unveiled Federal Budget is expected to support home ownership aspirations for thousands of households

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Are first home buyers the winners of the 2021 federal budget?

The Commonwealth&rsquo;s expansionary budget is the right approach for the times.

The Commonwealth has led the way with support for new home buyers through its &ldquo;First Home-owners Deposit Scheme&rdquo; which effectively under-writes housing loans for first home buyers with only a 5% deposit. &nbsp;However, this, along with record low interest rates and the relaxation of APRA controls has seen a spike in housing demand

The Budget expands this scheme and creates a new category of beneficiaries with the new Family Home Guarantee which will provide single custodial parents with a step up towards home ownership. There&rsquo;s also more flexibility for older Australians (over 60) who sell their house (generally to down-size after children have moved out) allowing them to deposit up to $300,000 per person into Superannuation.

The Budget also includes the expansion of the &ldquo;First Home Super Saver Scheme&rdquo; which increases the funds that can be withdrawn from Super accounts from $30,000 to $50,000. &nbsp;This, on top of HomeBuilder grants all adds to demand for new homes. But without a big boost in housing supply, borrowing from Super just pumps up the price further.

So Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has a conundrum. &nbsp;Stimulate the economy &ndash; but risk new home prices going up and a backlash from those locked out of the housing market. &nbsp;All of the worthy Commonwealth measures announced in the Budget face particular problem in NSW.&nbsp;

The NSW Planning System dropped the ball and slowed housing approvals down to a crawl just before COVID &ndash; then they failed to use COVID-19 as a chance to catch up. &nbsp;Now there is a massive shortage in supply of land sub-divisions and re-zonings for new homes across Greater Sydney. There is a plan for reform of planning in NSW &ndash; but it won&rsquo;t deliver for years to come. The same bold approach which has driven the Commonwealth is urgently needed in NSW.

What that means is all the extra funding for home buyers just pumps up the price of the existing stock of housing, ironically making home ownership less affordable.&nbsp;

<h2>The real issue for NSW is the supply of new housing.</h2>

The Department of Planning&rsquo;s own forecasts predict 150,000 new homes over the next 4 years in Greater Sydney &ndash; but even this bold prediction, unlikely to be achieved given the Government&rsquo;s refusal to take on NIMBY Councils, falls short of meeting the NSW Government&rsquo;s own Housing Strategy &ldquo;Housing 2041&rdquo; targets which call for 50,000 new dwellings (on average) each year from now till 2041.

The big problem for first home buyers and for the Commonwealth Budget is the NSW planning system.

The Commonwealth needs to get tough with NSW and drive planning reform to increase housing supply. &nbsp;While ever we wait for reform in NSW you can expect that new home prices will continue to rise.

The Commonwealth&rsquo;s increased investment public health, the vaccine roll out, mental health and women&rsquo;s support services is all very welcome indeed.

The Commonwealth investment in in city Infrastructure is also supported &ndash; though one short-coming was the absence of funding to support local infrastructure surrounding the new Western Sydney Airport because the success of this precinct will drive the economy of the nation. With a massive levy of 6.5% (on top of all the other fees and charges) to be applied to the development of employment centres around the airport, the feasibility of development of employment land is called into question and NSW risks missing out on the predicted jobs boom without some support from the Commonwealth.

All up, this is a budget for all Australians. It is very welcome and is strongly supported by the Urban Taskforce.

However, all of the worthy Commonwealth measures announced in the Budget face particular problem in NSW

2021 Federal Budget

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