A national new home building recovery is in sight, but state government housing policies risk stalling the recovery.

That's the view from HIA Senior Economist, Matt King, after the HIA&nbsp;released its Economic and Industry Outlook report.

The report includes updated forecasts for new home building and renovation activity nationally and for each of the eight states and territories.

“At the national level, demand for new homes is accelerating and this is largely due to the fact that the RBA hasn’t increased interest rates for a year, population growth is still elevated, the unemployment rate remains low and real incomes have stabilised,” King said.

“While activity is picking up, the varied nature of activity levels across capital city and regional markets continues to be pronounced.

“We have confidence that new home-building activity across most markets will continue to improve as we transition into the new year."

King said however that Sydney remains an outlier, and there is still no indication of a near-term rebound in both detached houses and multi-residential buildings.

“New home building in the Sydney basin remains exceptionally low, primarily due to exceptionally high land prices and an ongoing excessive impost of housing taxes and infrastructure charges."

Perth, Adelaide, and South East Queensland continues to lead the way in new contract sales and building approvals, despite ongoing supply-side constraints.

In the September quarter of 2024, building approvals increased from the corresponding quarter last year in Western Australia (+60.1 per cent), Queensland (+24.2 per cent) and South Australia (+16.3 per cent) in seasonally adjusted terms.

The calendar year 2024 has produced a growing divergence of both geography and typology.

The detached home building sector looks promising, evidenced most recently by detached house approvals across Australia rising by 6.1 per cent in the month of September to 9,890. This was the highest monthly number of detached house approvals in two years.

King said in contrast, the apartment sector "remains constrained",&nbsp;and is unlikely to experience any material recovery before mid-2025.

"The sector continues to be dampened by skilled labour shortages, business credit constraints and the aftermath of significant building material cost escalation.

“It is anticipated that detached house starts will rise steadily from a trough of 100,230 in 2023 to 115,690 in 2027. If the supply of land and labour are addressed, there is significant upside potential for this forecast.

“With relatively stable economic conditions nationally, home prices will remain elevated, rental vacancies will remain acutely low and demand for new homes will recover."

King says the&nbsp;extent of the recovery in new home building will be determined by the ability of governments to ease the barriers to home building.

“Housing investment is encouraged by the certainty of policy settings. Recent state government announcements to levy increased surcharges on foreign investors and introduce taxes on short-term rental accommodation are unhelpful at a time when stability is needed to achieve the 1.2 million home target.

“Failure to implement policies such as expedited land release, concessions on property taxation, and accelerated development approval timeframes; risk slowing the rate of home building over the next five years.

“At the beginning of this upswing in the cycle and the initial stage of the National Housing Accord target period, now is the time to ensure that each state government housing policy mix is entirely pro-supply,” King stated.

There were 14,090 multi-unit commencements in the June quarter of 2024, which is 7.8 per cent lower compared to the previous quarter and the second weakest quarter in 12 years. This is expected to increase by 15.5 per cent in the September quarter to 16,260, followed by a modest 1.8 per cent increase in the December quarter.

The upswing will bring multi-unit starts in the calendar year 2024 to 62,190, the weakest year since 2011 (62,170). Multi-unit commencements are expected to rise by 11.5 per cent in 2025 to 69,360 and by a stronger 20.9 per cent in 2026 to 83,870, followed by a 20.3 per cent increase in 2027 to 100,860 and a 2028 peak of 104,380.

Joel Robinson

Home building increasing everywhere but Sydney

A landmark development application has been lodged for the redevelopment of the InterContinental Hotel Double Bay, to deliver a $1 billion lifestyle precinct in the heart of Double Bay Village. 
&nbsp; 
The proposal, with Woollahra Municipal Council, will replace the existing outdated purpose-built hotel with an architecturally designed mixed-use building comprising a high-end retail and dining precinct, landscaped open spaces, cinemas and community spaces on the ground floor, and a new boutique luxury hotel, commercial office suites, a health and wellness centre, and 29 apartments across the seven upper levels.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a> and led by project and development managers Metis Group, 33 Cross Street is the vision of a consortium headed by Rebel Property and Capitel Group, two leading local developers with deep connections to Double Bay and a proven track record delivering high-quality, &nbsp;lifestyle-focused mixed-use projects.&nbsp;

<img alt="33 Cross St Double Bay Aerial" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="605bfafd-3dd1-4421-907e-1b0d22598fdd" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/33%20Cross%20St%20Double%20Bay%20Aerial.jpg?VersionId=sMJaDwJ8Jeptz78FwkYgu3XG3UCcnNSX" />

<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/capitel-group">Capitel Group</a> Managing Director, Eduard Litver, said the proposal for 33 Cross Street had been designed and planned with the Double Bay community in mind.&nbsp;

“This is the largest privately held site in <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developments/double-bay-nsw-2028">Double Bay</a> Village, and over the past 25 years there have been numerous concepts, schemes, ownership changes and refurbishments in an attempt to revitalise the site without sustained success,” Litver said.&nbsp;

“Our focus is to deliver the next evolution of this Sydney icon – a truly mixed-use lifestyle destination of enduring quality that inspires local pride garners global recognition, and aligns with Woollahra &nbsp;Council’s vision for Double Bay Village. &nbsp;

“This is Double Bay’s moment – a chance for this site to redefine how people experience this iconic waterfront neighbourhood for years to come."&nbsp;

Rebel Property Managing Director, Allen Linz said almost half of the proposed development has been dedicated to non-residential uses including cinemas, landscaped open spaces, retail and dining, commercial suites and community-accessible services.&nbsp;

“Since the early 1990s, 33 Cross Street has served as a landmark hotel with a limited civic connection beyond one street frontage, while the harbourside community has been transforming into a vibrant cosmopolitan precinct that we know people want to preserve and enrich,” Linz said.&nbsp;

“Our design creates an inviting, permeable street-level experience for all to enjoy while preserving the &nbsp;site’s history with a new right-sized luxury boutique hotel.”&nbsp;

Metis Group Director, Arian Galanis, said the iconic design required a meticulous approach.&nbsp;

“With the client and project team’s extensive experience and local knowledge, we have committed to a design that honours the site’s historic significance while offering an innovative, mixed-use space that caters to the evolving needs of Double Bay,” Galanis said.&nbsp;

“We have engaged with the community to ensure the proposal was thoughtfully considered to set a new benchmark for mixed-use development and will continue to do so throughout the development approvals and delivery process.&nbsp;

“Our shared goal is to create a positive legacy – a precinct that blends seamlessly into the fabric of &nbsp;Double Bay Village garnering local pride and global appeal, a cherished part of its future for years to come."

<img alt="Close Up 33 Cross St Double Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e2bb2070-3895-4ccf-99d6-77346bff67ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Close%20Up%2033%20Cross%20St%20Double%20Bay_3D_render_by_VV.jpg?VersionId=wor0_l4iFTizwlA9YoaxyfWrH5QaceAz" />

The proposed design was the culmination of a competitive design excellence process aimed at achieving the highest standard of architectural design, setting a new benchmark for development in &nbsp;Double Bay, with COX awarded the design role from four leading Australian and international firms.&nbsp;

COX Director Ramin Jahromi said the proposal embraced timeless architecture.&nbsp;

“33 Cross Street delivers a modern interpretation of classical proportions, featuring timeless materials and sophisticated finishes that create an iconic building with an elegant, enhanced street presence and enduring appeal,” Jahromi said.&nbsp;

“The facade’s glass light columns create a grand and visually stunning experience that draws inspiration from the illuminated fig trees framing the street-level entrance, adding to the site’s landmark status and enhancing safety and beauty at night.&nbsp;

“Community is really at the heart of the new design, with over 90 per cent of the ground plane accessible to the public. &nbsp;

“The design includes a spectacular atrium with a sculptural staircase and striking public art installation, &nbsp;a generous north-facing courtyard, and a six-metre-wide pedestrian walkway connecting Cross Street to Galbraith Walkway and down to Double Bay Beach."

Jahromi said the building has been&nbsp;carefully designed to not exceed the overall height of the existing building and includes recessed upper floors and an architectural green roof with a fully concealed plant that will offer a recessive landscaped aesthetic visible from higher surrounding areas.

Capitel Group Managing Director, Eduard Litver, said the proposal for 33 Cross Street had been designed and planned with the Double Bay community in mind. 

InterContinental Hotel, Double Bay, to become $1 billion lifestyle precinct

The Mornington Peninsula has long been a prime spot for those spending their weekends outside of Melbourne.

The area is dominated by large acreages, with the region having just over 3,000 apartments—less than three per cent of the 145,000 dwellings in the Mornington Peninsula, according to 2021 Census data.

One small coastal pocket, located between Dromana and Mount Martha, is <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/safety-beach-vic-3936">Safety Beach</a>, a tight-knit community with just over 6,000 residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138447 project_image_fid=290733]

A new community that has gained popularity in recent years is Martha Cove, an established precinct offering a rare opportunity to live harborside in Melbourne—a lifestyle that is seldom available.

Martha Cove somewhat addresses the lack of apartments in the Mornington Peninsula.

Renowned construction firm Figurehead identified Martha Cove as a prime location for development. While they’ve built several projects in the area, they’ve just completed their own development through their development company,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/aperture-projects">Aperture Projects</a>.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138447 project_image_fid=290744]

<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/buildings/osprey-safety-beach-15-martha-cove-boulevard-safety-beach">Osprey Safety Beach</a> is located in one of the best spots in Martha Cove—just 150 metres from the water and Martha's Table, one of the most popular dining spots in the entire Mornington Peninsula. More than just a restaurant, the venue also features a bar, cafe, adjoining grocery store, and a cellar door showcasing local farmers, producers, and wineries.

Osprey, consisting of just 18 two- and three-bedroom apartments starting from well under $800,000, is attracting city dwellers looking for a weekender as well as local downsizers who previously struggled to find smaller options locally.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138447 project_image_fid=290625]

While primarily offering a harborside lifestyle, Osprey is located just seven minutes drive from the sand at Safety Beach and only eight minutes from Mount Martha Public Park. With views over Port Phillip Bay and Arthur's Seat, the 53-hectare park offers extensive walking trails connecting the picnic area to the summit and viewing tower.

Osprey apartments are now complete and ready to move in.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=138447]

Martha Cove somewhat addresses the lack of apartments in the Mornington Peninsula

Osprey Safety Beach: Rare harbourside living on Melbourne's Mornington Peninsula

Reputable builder&nbsp;Decode has commenced construction on <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/atrium-at-carrington-place-40-42-ashford-avenue-castle-hill">Atrium</a>, the first stage of Ellipe Property's $750 million Castle Hill masterplan, Carrington Place.

&nbsp;Occupying 17 amalgamated sites along Carrington Road, Ashford Avenue and Partridge Avenue in Sydney’s north-west, Carrington Place is the largest residential masterplan in Castle Hill. It will deliver more than 800 new homes across five stages, helping to address Sydney’s critical housing shortage.

A recent groundbreaking event was attended by more than 100 partners and stakeholders, including the Mayor of the Hills Shire, Federal Member for Mitchell, and the Acting NSW Building Commissioner. The groundbreaking was celebrated with a traditional turning of soil as well as a smoking ceremony led by a local Deerubbin Elder, paying respect to the traditional custodians of the land in <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developments/castle-hill-nsw-2154">Castle Hill</a>.

<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/carrington-place-castle-hill-36-carrington-road-castle-hill">Carrington Place</a> is <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/ellipse-property-group">Ellipse Property</a>’s largest project to date, featuring architecture by the award-winning Tony Owen Partners and Stanisic Architects, with interiors by renowned design firm Studio SC, formerly known as Scott Carver.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=89496 project_image_fid=216768]

With the newly-built Hills Showground Metro Station unlocking greater connectivity between the Hills and the Sydney CBD, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/ellipse-property-group">Ellipse Property</a>&nbsp;Founder Sam El Rihani said that the groundbreaking marks the start of a thriving new community in Sydney’s burgeoning north-west – a sentiment echoed by Federal Member for Mitchell, Alex Hawke.

"With an ongoing shortage of high-quality, transport-oriented housing in greater Sydney, we’re proud to be delivering hundreds of quality new homes – with significant amenities and proximity to retail as well as the state-of-the-art Sydney Metro system," El Rihani said.

"Together with our partners, we are setting a new standard for modern, community-focused living in Castle Hill."

Alex Hawke said north west Sydney is becoming a hotspot for jobs and growth thanks to our world-class Metro infrastructure.

"The community has been ready for this change for some time now, and we thank developers like Ellipse Property for bringing that vision to Carrington Place,” said Hawke.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=89496 project_image_fid=216764]

The masterplan will be constructed across five stages and feature abundant community space, with over 20,000 sqm of outdoor recreational area including a one-kilometre boardwalk connecting the precinct to the nearby Fred Caterson Reserve.

The project is seamlessly integrated with the surrounding bushland, with a site boundary that stretches right to the edge of Cattai Creek.

The Hills Showground Metro Station is just a two-minute walk from Carrington Place and offers fast connectivity to Sydney’s CBD, Chatswood, North Sydney, Macquarie Park, and Norwest Business Park.

Atrium comprises 140 one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, some with double living spaces. Uniquely, over 75 per cent of apartments will feature studies or multi-purpose rooms, and abundant storage with various layouts also offering walk-in pantries.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=89496 project_image_fid=216765]

Paying homage to its verdant setting, Atrium’s design features a curvilinear exterior echoing the form of Cattai Creek with lush landscaping surrounding the building on three sides. True to its namesake, it will also feature an expansive atrium at the ground floor entrance, further connecting residents to nature.

The development will offer elevated indoor-outdoor living, outdoor kitchens, BBQ areas, an outdoor gym, and rooftop terraces boasting sweeping views of the creek and the wider Hills region.

Atrium will be delivered by <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/builders/decode">Decode</a>, an award-winning Tier 2 residential builder and one of the first to achieve a prestigious Gold iCIRT rating.&nbsp;

<img alt="Construction starts on Castle Hill’s largest residential masterplan" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="02188aec-b465-44fd-bfe0-79fcd07432eb" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Team%20Shot%20%281%29.jpg?VersionId=.ZEHlCX4.ECvwt6Yv_jdyeHmZF6EqXrZ" />

Acting NSW Building Commissioner, Matt Press, said housing is a massive investment for any consumer, and it is absolutely vital that they can trust the developer and builder they are dealing with.

"We need iCIRT-rated developers and builders like Ellipse Property and Decode to be the backbone of our industry, and the type of quality players that are filling the void of the housing supply crisis."

Apartments at Atrium have been sold predominantly to downsizers and first-home buyers, who are attracted to Castle Hill’s natural beauty, vibrant community and abundant retail and dining options.

Speaking at the groundbreaking event, the Mayor of the Hills Shire Dr Michelle Byrne said that Carrington Place addressed the needs of the Hills’ changing demographics.

“There are people that have lived in the Hills for 30,40, 50 years, they’re not leaving the Hills - they’re downsizing and choosing apartments," Byrne said.

"There are also more and more people from outside the Hills who want to be part of our community. I’m looking forward to welcoming these people, and projects like Carrington Place - that build not just apartment blocks, but communities - are the key."

Atrium is set for completion in early 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=89496]

The masterplan will be constructed across five stages and feature abundant community space, with over 20,000 sqm of outdoor recreational area including a one-kilometre boardwalk connecting the precinct to the nearby Fred Caterson Reserve

Decode kicks off construction at Castle Hill’s largest residential masterplan, Carrington Place

Serial Broadbeach apartment developer, Morris Property Group, has completed Malo Broadbeach, its 10th apartment development in the booming suburb south of Surfers Paradise.

Residents will be getting the keys to the boutique development before Christmas.&nbsp;

Located on Jubilee Avenue, a stone's throw from the <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developments/broadbeach-qld-4218">Broadbeach</a> Light Rail stop and Pacific Fair, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/malo-broadbeach-8-jubilee-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">Malo</a> is made up of just 16 half-floor apartments across a nine-level building.

Each apartment has three bedrooms and around 130 sqm of internal living space.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112549 project_image_fid=311734]

The apartments have been designed to take in as much of the surrounding area as possible, with floor-to-ceiling, double-glazed windows and doors that maximise views of the Gold Coast skyline and coastline.&nbsp;

Located in the heart of Broadbeach, Malo offers residents convenient access to some of the area’s most popular attractions.&nbsp; A short walk takes residents to Surf Parade, a lively hub with a range of dining options, while the famed Pacific Fair, the fifth largest shopping centre in the country, is just a few streets away.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112549 project_image_fid=311722]

Kurrawa Beach and its surrounding parklands are a short walk.

Malo offers the most affordable apartments the Gold Coast has seen, and likely will see, for years.

Morris is working nearby on its 11th Broadbeach tower,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/crest-broadbeach-13-armrick-avenue-broadbeach">Crest Broadbeach</a>, some 184 apartments that will be completed in 2027.

Much like Malo, Crest is also <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/qld/why-we-are-downsizing-to-crest-broadbeach-urban-buyer-q-a">attracting the downsizer market</a>.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112549]

St. Boulevard location

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