Despite a recovery, Melbourne property values remain 5% below peak

Through to November, there have been signs of an economic and property market uplift in Victoria, according to the latest data from CoreLogic. This follows a decline in Melbourne dwelling values, which are sitting 5.0% below the record high value reached in March 2020. New listings across Melbourne rose from 2,756 in the month of September, to over 8,000 in November. Meanwhile, sales activity rose from 1,546 to an estimated 4,301. This means the increase in sales activity has not matched the big increase in stock on the market, which may have a dampening effect on the recovery of the Melbourne market. The Melbourne rental market has been particularly impacted by the pandemic. This may also end up impacting property values, and CoreLogic data suggests larger dwelling value declines are correlated with declines in rent values. "Nationally, housing market values did not see the large decline anticipated at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Housing values fell just 1.9% between March and September before moving into a recovery trend, increasing 0.4% nationally through October and 0.8% in November," Eliza Owen, CoreLogic’s Head of Research Australia said. "Relative to previous housing market downturns, the current decline through to November seems relatively mild, with dwelling values just 0.7% below the pre-COVID levels. There are numerous factors which have contributed to the prevention of a larger downturn in dwelling values including the institutional, coordinated response to the pandemic, which have seen low borrowing costs, added incentives for first home buyers and the extension of mortgage repayment deferrals limiting forced sales." "Despite an initial slump in housing finance through the beginning of the year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the year to October saw a remarkable 14.5% lift in the volume of finance secured for the purchase of property, according to ABS lending indicators." "The post-COVID mortgage lending boost was driven by owner-occupiers including changeover buyers such as upsizers and downsizers, as well as buyers getting into the property market for the first time." "Money lent to first home buyers saw the fastest growth rate at 35.1% in the year to October, accounting for 22.1% of lending, up from 18.8% in the year prior. Meanwhile, investor mortgage lending increased less than 1% in the same period. There are several factors that contributed to this growth in first home buyer activity, including generational trends, monetary and fiscal incentives and lower dwelling values and competition," she concluded.