The bad news from China is good for property: Juwai's Andrew Taylor
If you pick up a newspaper these days, you had better have some Xanax handy. The headlines from China can be pretty scary.
But the truth is, the situation is more mixed than most fear-mongers would have you believe.
If you wear a miner's light on your hard hat when you go to work in the morning, then, sure, you have a right to worry that China's industrial economy could slow further.
But if you work or invest in real estate, or for that matter in the fields of education or tourism, you can rest easy.
You see, China has at least two different economies. The old industrial economy is slowing and being cleaned up. Even as the government moves to shut down polluting, outdated factories, consumer demand is booming, which means more buyers for Australian property, as well as for our tourism and education.
China doesn't rely solely on industry any more than Australia relies solely on mining. Industry only accounts for about 35% of GDP, but services account for more than half.
Credit Suisse sent me an interesting chart last week. It showed that China is importing about 20 percent less machinery and commodities like coal, but spending 80 percent more on international tourism. This is reflected in the fact that more than one million Chinese tourists came to spend their cash in Australia last year, the most ever.
Australia's educational sector is our number one export, after coal, iron ore and natural gas. Chinese outnumber all other foreign students in university, English-language, secondary and nonaward classes.
This is the same scenario we are seeing in real estate. With Chinese developers committed to billions of dollars of residential new construction in Australia, and Chinese buyers purchasing off-the-plan in large numbers, Australia finally has something it has been missing for decades: money to build.
Awe have spent years in a housing affordability crisis, but Chinese capital is finally making it possible to construct enough new homes to meet market demand.
In the past decade, China supported Australia's economy by funneling huge amounts of cash into our mining industry. In the coming decade, it looks like it will do so via real estate, education and tourism.
It's no coincidence that the famous Sydney Harbour Bridge Climb now offers a sky-high karaoke option for Chinese tourists.
Here's something that will make that shift sweeter: tourism, education and construction keep more than 2 million people working in this country, while mining just provides jobs for fewer than 200,000.
China's current expansion won't last forever, but experts like UBS global CEO Sergio Ermotti believe the rise of the Chinese consumer could last as long as did the commodities boom we just lived through.
Even at a pessimistic growth rate of 6.5 percent, China's economy will double in size by 2032.
Andrew Taylor is the founder and chief executive officer of sales and marketing at Juwai.com, the number-one Chinese real estate portal for property in Australia and around the world. Find out more about him here.
