ANZ forecast 10% peak to trough declines until late 2021 rebound

ANZ Research has forecast the national housing decline will reach 10 per cent, before seeing a modest recovery in late 2021, as economist start to work out the future after COVID-19.

They expect the biggest declines to be felt in Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart, all predicted to decline -13 per cent.

Brisbane and Darwin have been forecast to decline -7 per cent, Adelaide -6 per cent and Canberra -5 per cent, with Perth down just -2 per cent.

ANZ economists Felicity Emmett and Adelaide Timbrell anticipate prices will bottom out in mid-2021 as affordability improves, but the recovery is likely to be relatively gradual given that unemployment is expected to remain above 7% until 2022.

Hobart is set for the worst 2020 performance, but losses will be scaled back in 2021: Source ANZ Research

Emmett and Timbrell suggest the deterioration in household income will be the biggest driver of weakness.

"Already, nearly a third of Australian households have reported a deterioration in their finances due to COVID-19," the economists said.

"This collapse in income will create significant uncertainty for households and leave many unwilling to commit to buying or building a home."

Price growth has slowed in Sydney and Melbourne after bouncing back from the mid-2019 downturn. Source: ANZ Research

Emmett and Timbrell said the disruption of population growth will impact prices given border closures, expected to damage the Sydney and Melbourne markets the most given the bulk of their population growth comes from net overseas migration.

"Investor demand is likely to be hardest hit in the current environment. With the rental market under pressure from both reduced demand and increased supply, the incentive to invest in property will be low," they added.

"While the deferral of home loan repayments will help prevent forced sales, the collapse in demand in the face of the extremely uncertain outlook will drive prices lower over the next year or so."