Real estate recovery stopped in its tracks amid March shutdown; Domain quarterly analysis

Sydney’s real estate prices were the sturdiest in March, with prices in most capital cities subdued and heading towards decline, according to the latest quarterly analysis from Domain.

According to the report, Sydney house prices rose 13.1%, to $1,168,806, in the year ending March 2020. 

There was 2.6% in the March quarter.

The unravelling coronavirus crisis, however, has taken its toll on the market, with a shutdown of non-essential services, and a temporary ban on onsite auctions and open inspections, taking effect in late March and early April.

The number of homes on the market fell.

Between March 23 and April 10 new sale listings dropped 12 per cent compared to the same period last year, Domain’s figures show.

More than 14 per cent of vendors have since revised their price expectations, reducing them by an average of 4.36%.

In the March quarter Sydney maintained its status as Australia's most expensive capital city for residential real estate, with a median house price of $1,168,806 and a median unit price of $744,672.

Melbourne and Canberra rounded out the top three - Melbourne holding a median house price of $918,350 and a median unit price of $554,306, and Canberra holding a median house price of $779,050 and a median unit price of $441,055.

Canberra, however, saw significantly weaker growth quarter-on-quarter than Sydney or Melbourne. The nation's capital saw house prices grow just 0.3% (compared to Sydney's 2.6% Melbourne's 2%), and saw unit prices drop a substantial 5.2% (compared to a growth of 2.7% in Sydney and a 0.4% contraction in Melbourne).

In Darwin house prices grew by a respectable 1.2%, however the value of units plummeted by  8.1% - The highest margin in the nation.

The drop is part of a massive 16.2% year-on-year nosedive in Darwin's unit market.

Sydney saw the most quarterly grows in houses at 2.6%, however Adelaide topped the list for units with a growth of 4.2%.

In Domain’s February forecast for the year ahead, a combined average growth of 8% was predicted for houses in Australian capital cities during 2020, with a further 5-7^% growth projected in 2021.

Sydney topped this list, with a projected 10% growth in 2020 (and 6-8% in 2021), while Hobart and Adelaide were at the bottom of the list with a projected growth of just 3% in 2020 (and 2-4% in 2021).

For units, a combined average growth of 6% was predicted across Australian capital cities during 2020, with a further 3-5^% growth projected for 2021.

Sydney had the highest projected growth in 2020, at 8% (with 3-5% predicted for 2021).

Hobart saw the least expected growth, at just 2% (with 1-3% predicted for 2021).

The rapid development of the coronavirus and the ensuing economic fallout, however, have thrown these projections into uncertainty. 

Dr Nicola Powell, the senior research analyst at Domain, said that the pandemic was weighing heavily on sellers’ minds.

“Those who have to sell are editing their price to achieve the timely sale in fear of what could be ahead economically,” Dr Powell told Domain.

“The recovery was well on its way before coronavirus. Houses had regained the majority of the $165,000 loss in the downturn. Units had regained about $62,000 of the $103,000 lost in the downturn.

“When the market is moving and moving rapidly, those asking prices need to meet the market. We’ve seen the market flip in March.

“It’s almost a given we’re going to see fewer transactions. The fact we’ve got wage subsidies, mortgage repayment holidays and low interest rates will help support prices.”

Dr Powell said it was unclear how far prices would drop in months to come.